Rivalry Week: Williams @ Middlebury Game of the Week Preview

#11 Williams (12-3, 3-1) @ #16 Middlebury (11-3, 3-1), Saturday, January 20, 3:00 PM, Middlebury, VT

Overview:

The Ephs and the Panthers have become the NESCAC equivalent of the Cavs and Warriors in recent years. The teams met three times last season, including for the NESCAC Championship and in the NCAA Elite Eight. Williams ultimately got the last laugh, beating Middlebury in Pepin Gymnasium to advance to the Final Four. Both teams have carried over that success into this season. They are each ranked in the top 20 in the country, and have battled it out for the top spot in the league all season, along with Wesleyan and Hamilton.

However, both teams are far from unbeatable. Williams is without their star player, Kyle Scadlock ’19, for the rest of the season with a knee injury, and Middlebury’s shooting struggles are starting to become incredibly worrying. Middlebury’s NESCAC loss is to Wesleyan, whom Williams beat for their best win. And Williams’ lone NESCAC loss is to Tufts, whom Middlebury just beat handily at home for their best win. All this is to say that both these teams are again tremendously evenly matched, and this game should have huge ramifications for league standings and the playoff picture overall.

Middlebury X-Factor: G Max Bosco ’21

Max Bosco ’21
(Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)

At first glance, this pick might seem to be coming out of left field. Bosco has played fewer minutes than his fellow first year guards Jack Farrell ’21 and Griffin Kornacker ’21, primarily due to his smaller stature and struggles to create shots for others off the dribble. Farrell and Kornacker are both miles ahead of Bosco defensively at this point, and Joey Leighton ’20 is certainly more confident offensively. But Bosco can really shoot the ball. He hasn’t gotten a lot of chances yet, but his stroke is as sweet as anyone’s. Middlebury is the worst three point shooting team in the league, and second worst overall from the field. The clutch heroics of Jack Daly and excellent team defense will not be able to save the Panthers against Williams; they have to hit some outside shots to match Williams’ three point heavy attack. Bosco is capable of doing so. Additionally, his defensive struggles will not be as pronounced against the Ephs. Bobby Casey ’20 and Mike Greenman ’18, and even Cole Teal ’18, are an excellent group of players, but they are not large. Casey and Teal will be handled by Daly and Hilal Dahleh ’19, leaving Bosco matched with the 5’8″ Greenman. Bosco has a great opportunity this game to do what he does best; hit shots.

Williams X-Factor: F Matt Karpowicz ’20

We gave Karpowicz a lot of love in the stock report earlier this week, and that’s not just because he wrote some average football articles for us in the fall. Karpowicz is often unstoppable on the block, shooting 73% from the field, almost all in the paint. He splits time with Michael Kempton ’19, another very large person. As longtime reader Howard Herman pointed out, the two players offer very different looks for the offense. Kempton is a distributor, averaging 2 assists per game despite only playing 15 minutes. However, he is not a scoring threat, only shooting 42% from the field. Karpowicz is a game-changing scorer, and draws a lot of attention on the block, freeing up dominant shooters like Casey and James Heskett ’19. Indeed, in Williams’ closer games he ends up playing most of the crunch time minutes. I expect Middlebury to get a far heavier dose of Karpowicz than Kempton. Middlebury’s Nick Tarantino ’18 is a great athlete, but struggles with strong post scorers who can back him down and neutralize his length and leaping ability. And Adisa Majors ’18 is simply undersized, no matter which big man Williams has in. This means that Eric McCord ’19 is the guy, and has to avoid the foul trouble that hurt him against Albertus Magnus. In a game in which Middlebury must game plan heavily for Casey and Heskett, Karpowicz is the guy for whom Middlebury has no answer for on their roster.

Expect Matt Karpowicz to far exceed is 15 minutes per game on Saturday.

Final Thoughts:

James Heskett is certainly on the short list for Player of the Year, along with his teammate Bobby Casey, Jack Daly and Hamilton’s Kena Gilmour. He’s very long, with a gorgeous jump shot and incredible quickness for his size. Indeed, he’s been arguably the best shooter in the league this season, hitting 51% from the field and 43% from three. Luckily for Middlebury, however, they have one of the only players in the league who can match his skill set, if not his efficiency, in Matt Folger ’20. Along with the rest of the Panthers, Folger’s shooting numbers have taken a hit of late, but he is still a deadly scorer inside and out. And more importantly for this match up, he is miles ahead of Heskett defensively. Heskett’s skill set and athleticism have not yet translated to that end, as he averages just 0.3 blocks per game and 0.9 steals. Even more jarring is that he averages just 3.8 rebounds a night, despite being 6’8.” Folger, on the other end, has clearly focused on the defensive side of the ball. He is second in the league in blocks at 2.4, and grabs 8.1 rebounds a night. If Folger can outscore Heskett, Middlebury has a good chance to win.

James Heskett and Matt Folger are the crucial matchup to watch.

Rebounding may well be the key to Middlebury’s chances in this game. The Panthers are a bona fide dominant team on the glass. Their numbers are skewed by pulling down a ridiculous 70 against Tufts, but they still lead the league in total rebounds, offensive rebounds, and are second in rebounding margin. Williams is towards the bottom of the league in all of those categories. For a team that struggles shooting like Middlebury does, offensive rebounds are a must have statistic, and were what kept them in the game against Tufts until they pulled away in the second half. Williams is a team Middlebury can bully on the glass, creating second chances if shots aren’t falling.

Last thing: this could be a huge game for Jack Daly. He historically raises his game against Williams, but this isn’t just his already covered “clutch gene.” Williams doesn’t really have an answer for his strength at the guard spots. Greenman is far too small, and Bobby Casey isn’t particularly strong  defensively. In fact, Williams doesn’t have a single player averaging more than one steal per game. Even their big men are occaisionally timid inside, with the notable exception of Karpowicz. This means that Daly is usually able to get to the basket easily against the Ephs. He’ll draw attention to the paint, and he’s the best in the country at finding open players once he gets around the basket. The key will be how many shots those players can hit.

Writer’s Prediction: 

No longtime readers will be surprised by this, but I think Middlebury, on the backs of Jack Daly and an assuredly raucous home crowd, pulls this one out.

Middlebury 75, Williams 71

Perfection on the Line: Men’s Basketball Game of the Week

#14 Wesleyan (10-2, 1-1) @ #18 Hamilton (12-o, 1-0), 7:00 PM, Clinton, NY

And as we dive into the second weekend of NESCAC play there is already a game that will test two teams’ long term capabilities. Hamilton and Wesleyan are due to square off in this marquee matchup on Friday January 12th in Clinton, NY. The home team, Hamilton, has dominated their non-conference schedule and carried that momentum into their first NESCAC game against Trinity, and Wesleyan conquered the mighty Middlebury Panthers and nearly toppled Williams in an OT loss last weekend. In what has been an obscure first conference weekend in terms of power rankings (although you can read all about how Cameron deciphered last weekend’s results in the 1/10 rankings here:) this game should help clear up what the tumultuous beginning has left unclear, and be our best evidence yet as to whether or not Hamilton is legit.

Wesleyan relies on a dominant defense and timely scoring from players like Kevin O’Brien ’19.

Overview:

Wesleyan sits at 14th and Hamilton at 18th in the national poll. One year removed from being a disappointing last seed in the NESCAC playoffs, the Continentals are living up to their incredible talent this season. With versatile scorers like Michael Grassey ’19 and Peter Hoffmann ’19 surrounding stud Kena Gilmour ’20, Hamilton has, on paper, the strongest starting five in the league. Wesleyan, who was more expected to succeed in 2018, is also deep with experienced talent and their position in 2017 as a NESCAC semifinalist and NCAA tournament team would’ve favored them in this game a month ago. However, following losses in two of the Cardinals’ last three games, the home Hamilton squad can hardly be considered an underdog. After returning all of their 2017 starters, the system is in place for Hamilton’s continued success and it shows in their balanced stat sheet and in their win over Trinity last weekend 78-55. And Trinity beat Amherst the previous day 69-63, proving that they weren’t going to just roll over. Wesleyan has weapons on all parts of the floor too, although Jordan Bonner ’19 has seemed to have lost a bit of accuracy shooting lately. Hamilton averages almost 95 points per game, but they should be limited by Wesleyan’s defense, ranking third in rebounds, turnovers, and points allowed per game (64.5) in the conference. 

Wesleyan X-Factor: G Jordan Bonner ’19

Jordan Bonner
Jodan Bonner ’19 (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics)

I’m not trying to pick on Bonner here, as we already did that a little bit in our most recent stock report, but in the last five games (Wesleyan is 3-2 in that span, including their only losses), his shooting totals have fallen off of the table. The stock report discusses his ridiculous 10-33 performance, looking like Kobe during his retirement tour, but that isn’t the only blemish. Cumulatively in the last five games, Bonner is 22-71 from the field (31%) and 10-40 from beyond the arc (25%). He started off the year hot and owns respectable numbers from the entire season (40% FG; 33.8% 3 PT), but the league is littered with players who started off hot and then fell off the face of the earth once league play began and defenses adjusted. Sure, Wesleyan has Kevin O’Brien ’19, Nathan Krill ’18, and Austin Hutcherson ’21 who are having solid seasons, but Bonner still leads the team in points at 16.9 PPG, and if he doesn’t improve his shooting given the pure volume of attempts he takes, Hamilton’s offense will be too much to overcome.

Hamilton X-Factor: G Kena Gilmour ‘20

Kena Gilmour
Kena Gilmour ’20 (Courtesy of Hamilton Athletics)

Albeit not a particularly exciting pick, Gilmour completes the matchup to watch of this game. Likely to guard Bonner for at least part of the contest, the Continental scoring leader should have his hands full if he is to help limit the Wesleyan offense. With two blocks and eight rebounds against Trinity last weekend, Gilmour is nearly as much of a defensive force as an offensive one, leading his team with 18.5 PPG. In this breakout season, his shooting numbers have been excellent, at 37% 3 PT on the season and over 50% from the field, he is nearly a lock to score over 20 points, tipping the scales in favor of the home team. Gilmour is the catalyst of the offense that ranks ninth in the nation in points per game and will see his toughest test this weekend against a strong Wesleyan defense. This matchup should reveal just how legit Hamilton’s offense is, and if Gilmour rolls on, the team will too.

Final Thoughts:

Despite being one of only four undefeated teams remaining in all of Division 3 basketball, Hamilton still has not joined the teams that are considered the ‘real deal.’ The Continentals are top-10 in the nation in two statistical categories, including the aforementioned points, along with scoring margin (8th). And yet, they still have to prove themselves in league play. This is their chance, and boy do they have the tools. They play as a unit, and after developing together for a season, now that all of their starters are back for a second season, they should be able to maintain this success into at least a top-4 NESCAC finish. I’ve been on the Hamilton train since the beginning of the 2017 season–showing that I was a bit premature with my support–and am a believer that they are a force to be reckoned with. However, they will be heavily tested by the best teams in the conference.

While I have talked plenty about Hamilton’s hot start, I need not forget that Wesleyan knocked off former national #2 Middlebury, and came dang close to doing the same against Williams. Kevin O’Brien is the most dynamic player on the court for either side in this game, averaging over six assists and rebounds per game, while also shooting at a 61.7 clip. Despite only averaging 8.4 PPG, he is certainly capable of scoring more, showing in 16 and 18 point performances earlier this year against Mitchell and Nichols, respectively, settling into a more pass happy role ever since. If Bonner continues to struggle with accuracy, look for O’Brien to pick up the intensity and bear some of the scoring burden. The Cardinals have undoubtedly played a harder schedule thus far, but despite their opponents, their 78.9 PPG average doesn’t quite keep up with the 94.8 PPG of Hamilton. So, two questions remain: Will Wesleyan’s defense be able to stifle the Hamilton offense? Do Hamilton fans understand how hot their team has started off and how to give them an edge in their home gym (this is a challenge)? I say no, and yes.

Writer’s Pick: Hamilton 86-83

Who Wants It?: Men’s Basketball Power Rankings 1/10

It’s never easy to rank teams. The CFP committee (despite being paid professionals) couldn’t do it, and now we have two schools celebrating national championships in Division I football. When it comes to NESCAC basketball, it isn’t any easier. We’ve had just one weekend of conference play, and there weren’t too many surprises, but there were some big results like Williams over Wesleyan and Wesleyan over Middlebury. In these rankings I am almost entirely looking at conference games, as these are the best indication of where teams truly stand when compared to each other. Look for these rankings to change a ton in the coming weeks, before we start to get some real shape to the standings come February.

#4 Williams (11-2, 2-0)

Last Week: 76-68 W @ Wesleyan, 91-57 W @ Conn College

This Week: vs. Tufts, Bates

It was a huge weekend for the Ephs as they snuck away with a win in Middletown – avenging one of their two losses on the year – and defeating the Camels in convincing fashion to finish 2-0. It looks like for now, they are finding ways to win without Kyle Scadlock ’19. The win over #14 Wesleyan was a huge win because the Cardinals are looking very dangerous after taking down Middlebury on Saturday. Bobby Casey is one of the most dangerous sharpshooters in the league, scoring 24PPG this weekend on 78% shooting and 75% from behind the arc. Alongside him, James Heskett ’19 is scoring 17.5PPG and putting up 5.5 assists, but at 6’8” we should expect to see Heskett putting up a bit higher rebounding numbers if Williams is going to stay hot.

Tufts (11-3, 2-0)

Last Week: 94-83 W vs. Colby, 87-65 W vs. Bowdoin

This Week: @ Williams, @ Middlebury

Well here we are in NESCAC play and we find ourselves saying that yet again, the Jumbos are among the best. They are scalding hot, winners of 8 in a row including convincing conference wins over Colby and Bowdoin that are what is expected of a top tier team. Vincent Pace is loudly making his case for POY, averaging 19PPG, 12REB/G, and 4.5AST/G in their wins over the Maine schools. It should also be noted that although KJ Garrett returned to play in the games out in California, he did not play in either of their NESCAC openers. If he is able to return soon for league games then Tufts has another very deep lineup

#18 Hamilton (12-0, 1-0)

Last Week: 78-55 W @ Trinity

This Week: vs. Wesleyan, vs. Conn College

Hamilton continues to do everything they can do to prove that they have what it takes to be in the top of the league with a statement win in a 78-55 drubbing of Trinity. Kena Gilmour ’20 still looks like one of the NESCAC’s best, pouring in 23 points and grabbing 8 rebounds in the victory. We’ll wait and see if the high-scoring strategy used by the Continentals continues to prove effective in conference play. The win over Trinity was a start, but Hamilton has a chance to make some noise when the Cardinals and Camels come to town this weekend.

#14 Wesleyan (10-2, 1-1)

Last Week: 76-68 L vs. Williams, 80-70 W vs. Middlebury

This Week: @ Hamilton, @ Amherst

It’s still hard to get a good read on this Wesleyan team. They are definitely good, having already beaten Williams in a non-conference game and now Middlebury in a game where they played very well. A loss to Williams may simply prove to us that Williams is better than we thought, but the Cardinals had a chance to really do some damage, and they couldn’t finish a hard fought game at home. Wesleyan’s strength is their balance. Jordan Bonner ’19, their leading scorer, scored 28 points on a poor 10-33 shooting against Williams. Then in the win over Middlebury, he scored just 7 points on 1-5 shooting, allowing the shots to be attempted more evenly. Wesleyan doesn’t have a true “star,” but their efficient style still puts them in the top of the league.

#16 Middlebury (9-3, 1-1)

Last Week: 82-60 W @ Conn College, 80-70 L @ Wesleyan

This Week: vs. Bates, vs. Tufts

The Panthers are good, but how good are they? Well, they had a chance to make a statement against Wesleyan but couldn’t, and did what they needed to do in taking care of Conn College. Time will tell for the Panthers but for now I’ll give them 5th. Jack Daly consistently shows why he is among the conference’s best, putting up 21 points, 15 rebounds, and 8 assists despite the loss against Wesleyan. They will get another chance to prove themselves in a matchup to watch when they host Tufts this weekend.

Trinity (10-3, 1-1)

Last Week: 69-63 W vs. Amherst, 78-55 L vs. Hamilton

This Week: @ Bowdoin, @ Colby

Trinity is another team that I’m not completely sold on. A win against Amherst looks good, although the Mammoths have been trending in the wrong direction as of late. They then traveled to New York and were destroyed by an impressive Hamilton team. A poor effort like the one against Hamilton is not a good step as Trinity looks to force their way to the top. Eric Gendron had the best game in the win over Amherst, posting 6 assists and 5 rebounds to go along with 15 points. It is still unclear who the “go-to” scorer is in West Hartford, as the Bantams will get a chance to prove that they’re out of the cellar of the league.

Bowdoin (10-3, 1-1)

Last Week: 71-50 W @ Bates, 87-65 L @ Tufts

This Week: vs. Trinity

Things went very well for the Polar Bears last Friday as they kept Bates to a cold shooting night from the floor. Tufts is a good team, but Bowdoin is not making a great case for themselves losing by 22. Bowdoin’s leading scorer, David Reynolds ’20, actually comes off the bench, but puts up 15.4PPG, as well as 5.2REB/G and 2.1AST/G. Zavier Rucker ’21 is looking like one of the most steady point guards in the league in just his first year, and helps maneuver a quiet but dangerous Polar Bear offense. They welcome the Trinity this weekend in a game that will certainly tell us a lot about each team.

Amherst (8-4, 0-1)

Last Week: 69-63 L @ Trinity

This Week: vs. Conn College, vs. Wesleyan

After the game against Trinity there have been whispers about Amherst not being as good this year. And most of those whispers came from me. Trinity is not one of the best teams in the NESCAC, and Amherst wasn’t able to pull out a close win, a game that they have traditionally won over the years. They didn’t play poorly by any means, but the fact that they didn’t play poorly and still lost to a middle-of-the-pack team shows that they are down this year. They could turn things around this weekend by stealing a win against Wesleyan.

Bates (8-6, 1-1)

Last Week: 71-50 L vs. Bowdoin, 83-76 W vs. Colby

This Week: @ Middlebury, @ Williams

This week made it difficult to judge a Bobcat team because they really showed both sides of who they are this year. Against Bowdoin they simply couldn’t score, and they had no offensive threats at all. Against Colby the shots were falling, and Nick Lynch ’19 looked like the type of big man they need in Lewiston when he posted a double-double with 20 points and 10 rebounds. It really looks like Jeff Spellman ’20 and Tom Coyne ’20 are the only scorers in this Bates lineup and if they have off nights, the rest of the lineup can’t provide the firepower they need. They would really impress this weekend if they were able to steal a win from either the Panthers or the Ephs.

Colby (7-5, 0-2)

Last Week: 94-83 L @ Tufts, 83-76 L @ Bates

This Week vs. Trinity

Colby played well at times against Tufts, but lacked the star power to be a team as good as the Jumbos. They were hoping for a bounce-back win against Bates, but were denied at the hands of Nick Lynch and the Bobcats. Dean Weiner ’19 is having an outstanding junior campaign. He is a double-double machine, posting 17 points and 10 rebounds against Tufts, followed by a 19-point, 11-rebound effort against Bates. He isn’t getting a ton of help, so the Mules have struggled. They’ll look to turn it around this weekend against the Bantams.

Conn College (5-8, 0-2)

Last Week: 82-60 L vs. Middlebury, 91-57 L vs. Williams

This Week: @ Amherst, @ Hamilton

Things look bleak in New London. As we’ve mentioned, David Labossiere ’19 is having a breakout junior season and Dan Draffan ’21 is making a case for Rookie of the Year, but they don’t really have much else. They defeated Fisher in a non-conference affair on Tuesday. They’ll face a struggling Amherst squad and then Hamilton, so hopefully that win is just the spark they were looking for.

It’s Way Too Early For Power Rankings: Men’s Basketball Power Rankings 12/18

A short disclaimer before this article: This month of non-league games doesn’t really matter. Obviously it’s better to be undefeated (like Middlebury, Wesleyan, and Hamilton) than 4-5 (like Connecticut College) but for the most part the competition is lower-quality than league play. Come January, rotations, league leaders and indeed these rankings will all change pretty much immediately. But I haven’t written anything in forever and I’m already impossibly bored here at home, so let’s round out 2017 with these premature and probably inaccurate rankings. As always, feel free to kill me for them in the Twitter dm’s.

1) #2 Middlebury (6-0)

The Jack Daly ‘18 show has been incredible to witness this season. Daly is fourth in the leangue in scoring (17.5) first in rebounding (10.0) and first in assists (9.2.) Leading the league in rebounding and assists is simply ridiculous; I can’t remember it happening at any level of college basketball. But Middlebury’s undefeated record despite playing arguably the hardest non-conference schedule (Skidmore and Endicott were both tournament teams last year) is do in large part to the supporting cast as well. Matt Folger ‘20 is making a leap, averaging 17 points per game and contending for DPOY with 1.3 steals and 2.3 blocks per game. And the other guard spots, vacated by St. Amour and Brown, have been filled admirably by a committee. Hilal Dahleh ‘19  gets healthier every game after missing all of last season with a back injury, and has averaged 13 PPG on 8-13 three point shooting over his last three games. And first year Jack Farrell ‘21 just broke out with a 22 point showing against Skidmore. Add in fellow first year (and Hogwarts student) Griffin Kornacker ’21 and the experienced frontcourt rotation of Tarantino, McCord and Majors, and Middlebury is loaded. The Panthers play two more tournament teams in Swarthmore and York before league play begins, but they’re certainly riding high at the moment.

2) #14 Wesleyan (8-0)

Wesleyan is attempting to win despite not following the “run and shoot threes” style that the Warriors have made the norm throughout basketball. The Cardinals are fifth in the conference in scoring at 81 PPG and have taken the fewest threes with 153. And yet, they sit at 8-0 and beat Williams in Williamstown. How? One word: defense. Well actually, two word: defense and Bonner. They are averaging a ridiculous 11.5 steals per game, far and away tops in the league and have five players averaging at least one per game. They also lead the league in blocks per game at 6.5 and are second to Amherst in opponents points per game. But Wesleyan’s defense is always good, and it hasn’t always translated to success. This year, at least so far, Wesleyan finally has the go-to scorer they’ve lacked in recent years in Jordan Bonner ‘19. Bonner is averaging 17.5 PPG and has four 20 point games already. As Amherst gets into league play and the games get closer, they will need Bonner to get buckets at the end of games. The defense can take care of the rest.

Jordan Bonner ’19 may be the go-to scorer that could push Wesleyan over the edge.

3) #5 Williams (8-1)

Obviously, the Ephs’ strong start has been overshadowed by the loss of star forward Kyle Scadlock ‘19 to a torn ACL. Scadlock was building a POY case when he went down, and his injury is sad both for Williams and for the league as whole. But don’t count them out just yet. Williams is very deep, especially at forward, and have shown the signs of being able to weather this storm. Since Scadlock got hurt, they have relied largely on James Heskitt ‘19 and Bobby Casey ‘19 to pick up the offensive load. Both players have averaged over 15 points per game since his injury. And Williams’ greatest strength has always been the size that they bring off the bench. Matthew Karpowicz ‘20 is a terrible sportswriter, but he’s one of the best players in the league to come off the bench. It wouldn’t be a shock to see him start in league play, or at least see an increase in minutes when Williams faces other big teams like Middlebury and Amherst. Williams is still one of the teams to beat.

4) #23 Amherst (7-1)

Fru Che ’21 is one of a number of impressive Mammoth first years.

Here’s a ranking I might get killed for if the Amherst football parents are any indication. The Mammoths are well on their way to making all of us look dumb for thinking they might be down this year. They are 8-1, and have the best scoring defense in the league at 61 PPG, a huge reversal from last year’s team. But it should be pointed out that they are continuing the time-honored Amherst tradition of playing a terrible non-conference schedule. The Mammoths haven’t played any tournament teams yet this season, a fact that contributes somewhat to their terrific team stats. Indeed, it’s hard to get a read on Amherst’s key players because they’ve played some many blowouts in which everyone on the roster sees time. However, the struggles of Johnny McCarthy ‘18 cannot be explained by inconsistent minutes. McCarthy, who was expected to make a POY-type leap this year, is averaging 10 points per game on 38% shooting, 21% from three. Michael Riopel ‘18 and stellar first year Fru Che ‘21 have picke up the slack, but in league play, star power helps. Maybe McCarthy needed Jayde Dawson more than we thought, or maybe he’s just waiting until they need him more, but Amherst can’t compete with Middlebury if McCarthy isn’t an offensive threat.

5) Hamilton (8-0)

Hamilton always gets us with this trick. They play great before league play, and everyone (especially me) gets all excited thinking they might finally be ready to challenge the big boys. Then they get smoked in NESCAC games. At the risk of falling into that trap again, Hamilton has look REALLy good thus far. They are averaging 95 points per game (albeit against the same level of competition as Amherst) and lead the league in shooting, both overall and from three. Hamilton has one thing that they didn’t have last year, however, when they started strong and then faded spectacularly in league play: experience. All the young players that made Hamilton exciting last year are a year older and have improved noticably. Michael Grassey ‘19 has become a deadly three point shooter and overall scorer, and the backcourt of Tim Doyle ‘18 and retired mobster Joe Pucci ‘19 shoots over 50% from three and provides leadership. But Hamilton’s star is Kena Gilmour ‘20. Gilmour averages 17 points and seven rebounds per game, and is exactly the kind of versatile, athletic wing that tends to dominate NESCAC (see Bowdoin’s Lucas Hausman.) This has been said each of the last three seasons, but this might be Hamilton’s year.

6) Tufts (7-3)

Expected to compete for the league title at the beginning of the year, Tufts is just now getting healthy and rounding into form. They have three losses, but two of them came in their first three games and both were against tournament teams (MIT and WashU-St. Louis.) Since those games, they are 6-1. Tufts has been without two key contributors all season in KJ Garrett ‘18 and Ben Engvall ‘18. Both players made a big difference last season, and has led to a crisis of depth for Tufts. The Jumbos rely heavily on Vincent Pace ‘18 and Eric Savage ‘18 to carry the offense. The senior duo has combined to average 33 points per game, 19 of those coming from Pace. As Amherst proved last year, relying too much on two players is not a sustainable way to win NESCAC games. Defenses are too good; Wesleyan, Amherst, Williams and Middlebury all have enough depth to throw multiple defenders at both guys. Tufts will need one or both of Savage and Garrett to return during league play if they hope to live up to preseason expectations.

7) Bowdoin (8-2)

There was brief pandamonium (or should I say…Polar Bear-monium? I shouldn’t? Okay) a few weeks ago when Bowdoin briefly climbed as high as number 22 in the national rankings. Back-to-back losses to Colby and St. Joseph’s ended that brief love affair. But as Landry Clarke must have thought after Tyra dumped him, just because it was brief doesn’t mean it was a fluke, and it doesn’t mean it can’t happen again. Bowdoin has a lot of talent. David Reynold’s ‘20 is a bona-fide super sub, averaging 15 points per game on over 50% shooting off the bench. First year guard Zavier Rucker ‘21 is shooting 66.7% from the field and has turned what was expected to be a weak spot (PG) into a strength. And Hugh O’Neil ‘19 provides size and toughness inside. Jack Simonds ‘19 still hasn’t gotten going, only shooting 39% from the field and 28% from three. He seems to be having a little trouble meshing with a suddenly-balanced team, after being very much the go-to guy last season. Once he figures it out, Bowdoin really could be scary.

David Reynolds ’19 is explosive off the bench for the Polar Bears.

8) Trinity (6-2)

As always, it’s hard to get a read on the Bantams. After losing Ed Ogundeko, Trinity has gotten off to a solid 6-2 start. However, they got pasted by Nichols, their best opponent by far, 89-75. In that game, as well as their other loss to Western Connecticut, they showed many of the offensive problems that have plagued previous Trinity teams. Those problems are primarily related to floor spacing. The Bantams are the second worst three-point shooting team in the league, trailing only Bates. Their leading three point shooter (and overall scorer) is Jeremy Arthur ‘19, and he shoots only 36%. When Trinity plays against good defenses who can handle their size inside, those teams can pack the paint and Trinity really struggles to score. Arthur has been a good player for a while and is flourishing without Ogundeko, but Trinity won’t win league games if they don’t find someone else to hit some threes.

9) Bates (5-2)

Jeff Spellman
Jeff Spellman ’20 (Courtesy of Bates Athletics)

Bates is shooting, as a team, 38% from the field and 24.5% from three. According to my “Basketball For Dummies” reference book, that is not very good. It speaks very highly of their defense that they are 5-2 despite shooting that poorly. They force nearly 17 turnovers per game, and allow teams to shoot almost as poorly as they do from three at 27%. Bates has relied largely on that defense and the clutch play of Jeff Spellman ‘20, who is averaging over 18 points per game. Most of those came in a 38 point outburst against UNE, but he has shown a knack for getting a big hoop when they need one most. Obviously, during league play, they will have to shoot better than this, or else teams will pack the paint even more than they will against Trinity.

10) Colby (6-2)

Colby may be the team that has the fairest gripe with these rankings. They have a 6-2 record and a signature win over Bowdoin. And yet here they are, two places behind the Polar Bears. In contrast with the Bobcats, much of Colby’s success is due to their three-point shooting. Colby shoots 34% from three, which isn’t amazing, but their numbers are slightly skewed by two games where they shot 22%. Colby is also young. Their leading scorer is impressive first year Michael Hanna ‘21, who averages over 13 PPG. Colby has a chance to contend for the CBB title, and maybe climb into the tournament.

11) Connecticut College (4-5)

David Laboissiere ‘19 (don’t ask me to pronounce that) has put up one of the most efficient first months we’ve seen in a while. He leads the league in scoring at 18.3 points per game, and is shooting 52% from the field and 51% from three. Unfortunately, he’s not getting a ton of help. And his team’s record reflects that. They are a league-worst 4-5, and have lost three in a row heading into break. The main culprit is certainly turnovers. They average 19 per game, by far the most in the league. They do try to play fast, which leads to some sloppiness, but that is simply not a sustainable way to play. In NESCAC play, Labossiere won’t be able to bail them out every night.

David Labossiere is putting up big numbers this year, but so far they have been for naught.

Flamin’ Hot Takes: Women’s Basketball Weekend One Review

NESCAC women’s basketball kicked off its 2017-2018 campaign with a great set of games last weekend. In preparation for conference games that will start up in the next couple of weeks, each team played non-conference opponents. Here are my hot takes:

Hot Take 1: Amherst and Tufts will be really good

Melissa Baptista
Melissa Baptista ’18 (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)

If you were reading my women’s soccer articles in the fall, you witnessed how many times I picked the underdog to defeat Williams, who is now in the Final Four. Each time I picked the opponent, Williams proved me wrong. I feel like Amherst and Tufts are the basketball versions of Williams. They’ve both ended up at the top of the league many of the previous seasons. They’re similar to the Spurs and Patriots: they’re consistently very good without much flash. Amherst has lost Ali Doswell ‘17, who was nominated for the DIII player of the year for the 2016-2017 season, and was an All-American. Doswell’s 13.2 PPG and stellar three-point percentage will be missed. Amherst, per usual, will utilize the ‘next person up’ mentality. Don’t get me wrong, Doswell’s loss will be felt, but with two convincing non league wins, I think Amherst will enter league play with the assumption that the squad can go all the way again this year. Tufts, on the other hand, is returning Melissa Baptista ‘18. Similar to Doswell, Baptista started every game for the ‘Bos. She comes off a season where she averaged around thirteen points per game, an All-American selection, and was a threat everywhere on the court. Tufts is already 2-0 on the young season, and I would expect Amherst and Tufts to be at the top when it’s all said and done.

Hot Take 2: It’s going to be a long winter in Lewiston

The Bates Bobcats dropped its opening two non league games last weekend. Everyone has a different mentality when it comes to these games. Obviously, the NESCAC playoffs are determined by a team’s NESCAC record. Every competitor, however, wants to win each game he or she plays in. Therefore, Bates’ two opening losses should raise major red flags. The NESCAC is one of the strongest conferences in the country for DIII in all sports. Losing to non-NESCAC teams isn’t a good statistic. It won’t get any easier for Bates down the road with games against Maine NESCAC rivals on the horizon. Defense for Bates was the major inhibiting factor last year keeping the team from a successful seasons. Giving up eighty-five points to Smith on Sunday isn’t a good sign that they’ve made significant improvements on the defensive side of the game. If Smith puts up that many points, imagine what will happen when Amherst, Tufts, or Bowdoin comes to town. It’s early in the season, but Bates needs to turn it around soon. Nina Davenport ‘18 is one of the best shooters in the conference. She will be one of the difference makers for Bates this season. If she sets the example of focusing on defense just as much as (or more than) offense, the hot take could be wrong.

Nina Davenport ’18 is the key to Bates’ season.

Hot Take 3: Contrary to popular belief, defense still wins championships

The Golden State Warriors have made people believe that the way to win championships and create the ultimate basketball franchise is through quick transitions threes. Daryl Morey, the GM for the Houston Rockets, was the first man in the NBA to use the ‘Moneyball’ approach in basketball. If you watch a Rockets game, you will observe that there are no midrange jump shots, but only dunks/layups and threes (i.e. Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan wouldn’t be a system fit). In the era of offense in the NBA, the score of last year’s NCAA women’s basketball championship was 52-29 Amherst over Tufts. The top two scoring and three point percentage leaders from last season weren’t from Tufts or Amherst. If you want to beat Tufts or Amherst, you have to match their defensive mentality and efficiency. Bates, Colby, and all the other teams who were below .500 last year can put the ball in the basket. However, they couldn’t play the defense that those two outstanding teams could. I think all the teams that will post a record above .500 this year will be great defensive teams that value defense more than flashy offense.

Winter (Sports) is Coming: Football Season Wrap-Up

Well here we are. It’s 34 degrees outside, it’s supposed to snow next Tuesday, and another NESCAC football season has come and gone. And what a season it was. Trinity was supposed to use the rest of the league as target practice, and for the most part they did. But the Mammoths stunned them in Week Seven, and gave us one of the more exciting final weekends in recent memory. We had an incredible senior class that gave us highlights galore all year, and they will all be missed. But there are also talented young players who have the league set up for the future, especially the first year QB crew of Williams’ Bobby Maimaron, Amherst’s Ollie Eberth and Bates’ Brendan Costa.

However, the biggest story of the season might not have to do with the players at all. 2017 was the first season in which the teams played a full nine game schedule, ensuring that everyone played everyone else. I don’t know what the readers think, but to me it was a roaring success. The biggest reason that the final weekend was so exciting was that head-to-head play was such a factor. Amherst could have clinched the title with a win over Williams because of their win over Trinity, which gave them the tiebreaker. And Middlebury’s win over Tufts mattered because the tie breakers they had with Wesleyan and Amherst would have allowed them to share the title had Trinity lost. In the past, there’s a chance Amherst and Trinity wouldn’t have even played. Count us in as big fans of the ninth game.

Speaking of Williams, the Ephs have to be the other biggest story of the season. Last year, Williams went 0-8 and were outscored on the season 99-263. In the Biggest Little Game in America 2016, Williams lost 28-3. Fast forward a year, and Williams beat Amherst 31-24 to finish at 6-3 keep their hated rivals from a NESCAC title. Credit for this incredible turnaround has to go to Head Coach Mark Raymond. Raymond vaporized the culture of losing that had permeated the Williams locker room in about five minutes, and created one of the tougher teams in the league. They had wins over two of the best teams in the league (Amherst and Middlebury) in the two most exciting games of the year, showing their knack for clutch play. The culture that Raymond that has established in such a short time is borderline unbelievable. Coach of the Year is his by a mile.

Williams made incredible strides this season, and might well take home the title next year.

Of course, the next most credit has to go to the players. Despite having the youngest team in the league, Williams showed that they’re already one of the elite teams in the league. QB Bobby Maimaron ‘21 is a star, adjusting his game to fit the opponent. Against Middlebury, he matched Jared Lebowitz ‘18 throw for throw to pick apart Middlebury’s iffy secondary. And against the dominant Amherst defense, he kept it on the ground and ran for four touchdowns, including the game winner in OT. In an offseason that will see the departure of three elite quarterbacks, Maimaron is the next superstar. With other impressive first years like WR Frank Stola, RB T.J Dozier and LB T.J Rothman, Williams may well be the favorite to win the title next season. Imagine saying that two years ago.

As I said earlier, this was a season full of stellar seniors. Wesleyan’s tandem of QB Mark Piccirillo and WR Mike Breuler put up video game numbers all year, and forced some record book re-writing. Breuler ended the season with 87 receptions and 1167 yards, both records, and Piccirillo finished the season with a 70.4% completion percentage, top five in the country. These two stars might be the top two contenders for POY, but they weren’t the only stars who will be leaving the NESCAC sky. Trinity QB Sonny Puzzo ‘18 closed his career with back to back NESCAC titles, and picked apart Wesleyan in his final game to the tune of 228 yards and three touchdowns (2 passing one rushing.) Puzzo is one of the most successful QB’s in recent NESCAC history.

Mike Breuler ’18 is one of the best receivers in NESCAC history.

And then there’s Jared Lebowitz. I promised myself (and every other writer) that I wouldn’t write this whole article about him, but just a few words. When he went down against Bates, he was having one of the best QB seasons in recent NESCAC history, with 18 touchdowns against just two interceptions. His matchup with Puzzo and Trinity is one of the great “what-ifs” of the season, as if he had played it might have been an all-time classic. No matter what, Lebowitz will go down as maybe the best of the Middlebury quarterback dynasty, and one of the best on any team. I may still vote for him as the Second Team QB (I kid, I kid.)

There’s one more, considerably less athletic graduating senior to mention; me. This will be my last season covering NESCAC football for this blog. I’m in the library and crying is frowned upon so I won’t write too much, but just know that this blog has been the best choice I’ve made in my college career. I got my start with football, and getting to write about the teams that I’ve grown up loving (Middlebury) and loathing (Amherst) is an incredible pleasure. To all the players, parents and fans, you’re the reason we do it, thank you for reading.

In the words of Bill Belichick, we’re on to basketball.

Even Steven: Weekend Preview 11/3

There is another championship caliber game this week in Trinity @ Amherst, which has its own separate preview, but there are still a number of interesting games with pride on the line. The final nine positions in the standings are still up for grabs, and while that might not mean much to some, many programs will benefit in morale, momentum, and recruiting (which obviously doesn’t happen in the NESCAC for our readers from admissions offices) for future seasons. Bates and Bowdoin have the battle for Maine, Williams and Wesleyan are tied in the standings with Williams looking to jump even higher up the ladder from 2016, Midd needs to put up or shut up, Hamilton could still put up a respectable record, and Tufts is in danger of falling to .500. Sorry to Colby Mule fans, there isn’t much going on for you this week other than a potential for a monstrous defeat. Lots to watch this weekend and here is what to expect:

Bowdoin (0-7) @ Bates (1-6), 12:30 PM, Lewiston, ME

Two promising first year QBs for struggling teams in this game. Is this the future of the NESCAC? The next two teams to make a Williams/Bobby Maimaron-esque jump to the top in 2018? Only time will tell how each young signal caller turns out and how their teams develop with them, but for now, Griff Stalcup ’21 and Brendan Costa ’21 should provide an intense matchup in their first of four career head to head battles. Stalcup struggled mightily against Trinity (63-14 loss), looking like he was in danger of losing his job, but knocked it out of the park in a 21-10 loss to Wesleyan. He threw for 317 yards, a TD, and didn’t turn the ball over. Despite a loss, the two possession difference against Wesleyan is a positive for this struggling Polar Bear squad. With Nate Richam ’18 out, the Bowdoin running game is much weaker, but they adjusted from the Trinity to Wesleyan games, making a stab at a late comeback. They also resorted to a more pass oriented offense as Robert Kollmer isn’t nearly as dangerous as Richam. While Richam and Kollmer are both young and promising for the Bowdoin future, without Richam, the passing game will once again be on display. Defense has been a big issue for the Polar Bears, holding off the Cardinals’ running attack, although they were without lead back Dario Highsmith ’20. Their passing defense isn’t as good, but that shouldn’t be a cause for concern against a run-heavy Bobcat offense. Their senior receivers Nick Vailas and Bryan Porter should be open for Stalcup, but their key will be stopping the rush. They have a shot, but Costa might be too much to handle.

Mickey Nichol is an emerging weapon for the Bobcats, both as a runner and a receiver.

A run oriented offense against a weak rush defense (actually, the worst rush defense, allowing 205.7 yards per game). This is a recipe for success for Brendan Costa and the slot-receivers of Bates football. Coming off of a rather ugly win against Colby (27-24, we must not forget that Bates could still easily be 0-7 and in search for their first win. I mean, looking at the matchup and how Costa played, they are the favorite here, but they shouldn’t be by much. If it weren’t for the perfect opponent for this offense, there’s no way the Bobcats could be projected to win. They allow the most pass yards per game (273) and points per game (40.6!) in the NESCAC. Granted Bowdoin, as previously mentioned, allows the most rush yards per game and also the second most points per game (34.7). This is a recipe for Costa to find some success to Mickoy Nichol, and for him, Nichol, and Frank Williams to find some room on the ground. This game should be a defensive nightmare, but will also be a mano-a-mano battle of the new guy QBs for bragging rights in Maine.

Predicted Score: Bates 31, Bowdoin 28

Williams (5-2) @ Wesleyan (5-2), 1:00 PM, Middletown, CT

Another exciting game between two top teams who are just barely out of it, still feeling the sting of Trinity’s dominance. Pride is on the line for both, while Williams looks to one up another top team who dominated them a year ago. With such a young team, each high intensity game gives them an edge for next year when they face the Bantams again. With Williams’ depth, they should be the favorites as without Dario Highsmith, injured against Bowdoin, Wesleyan is not nearly as dangerous offensively. Connor Harris has been the lead back all year, but TJ Dozier has really come on the past three games, putting a hurting on Hamilton last game with 112 yards in their 24-6 win. With Bobby Maimaron at the helm, Rashad Morrison, Harris, and Dozier on the ground, and Frank Stola, Justin Nelson, and Adam Regensburg on the hands team, the Eph offense is scary good. Their only real flawed game was against Tufts in a 21-13 loss where they were vulnerable in the secondary. S Luke Apuzzi, LB Jarrett Wesner, and LB TJ Rothman will need to be strong in the second and third tiers of the defense helping the DBs in order to limit Piccirillo.

Without Dario Highsmith, QB Mark Piccirillo will need to step up in a big way if Wesleyan is to better their 6-2 record from 2016. Piccirillo looked good against Bowdoin, but I’m going to pretend that didn’t happen because of how weak their defense is. Therefore, recently, Piccirillo has struggled mightily. Besides the Bowdoin and Amherst games, he has thrown INTs in every game (including games against Hamilton, Bates, AND Colby). In the game he didn’t throw one against the Mammoths, he got absolutely abused, sacked nine times for 51 yards. Even against Bowdoin he was sacked four times. So maybe, he is just learning to go to the ground and not make late passes when he is being bore down upon by defensive linemen. The Cardinals offensive line is clearly a factor here as their RB Highsmith is injured and Piccirillo is getting hit at an incredible rate, spelling trouble against a strong Williams defense (fourth in the NESCAC with 20 sacks). Williams has a good secondary to boot, so Piccirillo has a tough test here. Now, I am critical of Piccirillo because of how one bad decision could easily change the course of this game. He still leads the NESCAC in passing yards, passing TDs (18), and has the best receiver in the league in Mike Breuler. This is going to have to be a two man show for the Cardinals, and unless Piccirillo learns how to scramble a bit better, he might be in for some trouble. Can he take care of the ball enough to get it to Breuler two times or more? Possible, but unlikely.

Predicted Score: Williams 27, Wesleyan 17

Hamilton (2-5) @ Middlebury (5-2), 12:30 PM, Middlebury, VT

Sadly, Middlebury must now prepare for life post-Lebowitz three games earlier than expected. Jack Meservy ’19 is the heir apparent, and this game is critical for his development. He got knocked around big time by Trinity, but impressed many with his perseverance and arm strength. Middlebury is a quarterback factory, and he has all the tools to succeed. A choice matchup with Hamilton is a great opportunity for Meservy to gain some confidence going into a tough final game at Tufts, and then his senior season.

Against Trinity, Middlebury tried to take some pressure off Meservy by establishing the run, never an easy thing to do against the Bantams. It didn’t work. Middlebury only averaged 3.1 yards per carry against Trinity, down from their season average. Middlebury isn’t built to run the ball, as their entire offense has been set up around Lebowitz’ elite arm. Against Hamilton, they should be free to use much more of the original playbook, as the Continentals give up the third most passing yards per game. Look for Middlebury to get back to their high-flying ways, and potentially use this game as an audition of sorts for Meservy as the starter of the future.

As much as this game is an opportunity for Middlebury, it is far more of one for Hamilton. They will NEVER get as good a chance to knock off a top tier team as this one, and a win against Middlebury would give their various young stars a huge confidence boost. To do this they need to vary their offense. Middlebury’s defense played a fabulous game against Trinity despite getting virtually no rest; they held Sonny Puzzo to his lowest completion percentage and fewest yards of the season. The odds are that they can do the same to Kenny Gray ’20. Middlebury has a plethora of excellent athletes in the secondary to throw at Joe Schmidt ’21, so the run game is the key this week for the Continentals. Mitch Bierman ’21 has been largely ineffective since a breakout against Bowdoin two weeks (and as always, offensive performances against Bowdoin don’t count,) but Marcus Gutierrez ’18 has been running well lately. Look for both of them to get more carries than usual to try and set up Gray’s big play ability. Hamilton will try to seize this opportunity to take down the Panthers, but I think they still fall short.

Predicted Score: Middlebury 20, Hamilton 17

Tufts (4-3) @ Colby (0-7), 1:00 PM, Waterville, ME

The only one-sided game on paper this weekend features a Tufts team that is struggling to remain on the upper crust of the league. They have one quality win; a 21-13 victory over Williams two weeks ago, but other than that they have lost all three of their games against teams with winning records. It is turnovers that have been their downfall. Each of their losses has been decided by one possession and they have 13 turnovers in 7 games. You’re not going to beat Trinity or even Wesleyan if you give them free possessions. QB Ryan McDonald has 11 of those turnovers, keeping him out of the POY conversation even though he is electrifying to watch. McDonald should use this game as an exercise in taking care of the ball, as their Week Nine game with Middlebury will be another golden chance to beat a top tier team.

Ryan McDonald ’19 is maybe the best dual threat QB in the league, when he holds on to the ball.

Luckily for the Jumbos, Colby’s offense is likely not good enough to make them pay if they do turn the ball over. But it’s an improvement to even say likely. After not scoring more than seven points in any of the first five games of the season, they have scored 24 points in each of the last two. This is largely the result of lesser competition; Colby finally reached the other lower tier teams part of the schedule. But they have also finally worked out some QB issues. Jack O’Brian ’20 has found success in the read option, using his legs to create Colby’s best scoring chances of the season. It won’t matter against Tufts, but Colby has enough pride to make this a game if Tufts takes it too lightly.

Predicted Score: Tufts 35, Colby 7

Seasons on the Line: Week Seven Weekend Preview

Two straight weeks with what I deem to be an upset is monumental in NESCAC football. Things are getting turbulent for a number of top teams heading into the final three weeks (Really?! Only three weeks left?) and Trinity isn’t slowing down. Unfortunately, to have any excitement in the last two weeks, we are going to need to have Midd upset Trinity, otherwise, the Bantams will cruise to Title Town once again. Amherst and Tufts had resurgent weekends, although the Jumbos need a lot of help to realize their championship dreams. With Midd and Amherst tied in second at 5-1, this Midd vs. Trinity game is putting everything on the line for a number of teams. While that analysis will be done by Pete in a special article later on, here is the rest of the weekend breakdown, featuring some elimination do-or-die games for Amherst, Tufts, Wesleyan, and Williams, with an added rivalry game in the CBB series between Bates and Colby.

Griff Stalcup ’21 looks to rebound from a tough game against Trinity

Wesleyan (4-2) @ Bowdoin (0-6), 12:30 PM, Brunswick, ME

Wesleyan had a crushing loss against the Mammoths, basically ending all hopes for glory in 2017. While they still have a chance for a massive tie at 7-2 at the top of the division, unless they see the Bantams lose this week, they will not come out on top. Contrary to 2016 where they were able to overcome an opening week loss to go 6-0 until the final week, they lost all offensive capabilities in week six. Since they need help to win it all, they can only focus on their task at hand—burying the Polar Bears further into the abyss of defeat. Dario Highsmith didn’t play against Amherst and is a question mark heading in to this game, and although Mark Piccirillo has been historically good if not great at QB, he looked ineffective—to say the least—last week in Amherst territory. He threw just for 129 yards, no TDs, and the rest of the offense only gained 88 yards on the ground. They lacked spark and only kept the game close because of a Shayne Kaminski pick-six off of Ollie Eberth. While I pick them to win here, this has trap game (a.k.a. a game within two TDs) written on it if Dario Highsmith is still out.

Griff Stalcup regressed in week seven, losing some playing time to former starter Noah Nelson at QB. I’ll cut the kid some slack; He was a first year QB playing against the best team in the league. Nelson wouldn’t have done too well, either. Nate Richam didn’t play in the game, and as Bowdoin’s only offensive weapon, it he isn’t back, they will have a rough game. Stalcup did have a six yard TD run, and Nelson a four yard TD pass, so this game might just decide which QB starts for the Polar Bears in the final two games of their season against their fellow winless Maine teams. Wesleyan is not nearly as scary as an opponent as Trinity, but the absolute thrashing in week six couldn’t have helped this team’s confidence. They could make it interesting, but won’t have enough juice to overcome the Cardinals.

Predicted Score: Wesleyan 28, Bowdoin 14

Brendan Costa has had rushing success and looks to lead Bates to their first win

Bates (0-6) @ Colby (0-6), 1:00 PM, Waterville, ME

Well, one of the Maine football teams will finally find the win column this weekend. By virtue of Hamilton’s slight edge over the other bottom teams, Bates, Colby, and Bowdoin now all find themselves without wins heading into their CBB Consortium series for the crown of Maine. Bates’ Brendan Costa will be the most dynamic player on the field this Saturday for either team, and has locked himself in to the starting QB job. Despite a blowout loss at the hands of Middlebury—which was totally expected and inevitable—Costa still managed to throw for two scores, run for 131 yards, and only throw one pick. While the Bobcats lost two fumbles, one from Costa, one from WR Mickoy Nichol, they could have definitely played worse. With a little bit of offensive momentum going against a weak Mules team, Bates actually finds themselves as the favorite.

After facing a disappointing loss at the hands of another bottom tier NESCAC team, Colby looks to end their winning drought after an encouraging performance from QB Jack O’Brien. Both teams have developing signal-callers, but each is still winless. The Mules also saw a solid performance from K John Baron, earning the special teams player of the week honors, going 4/4 in total kicks. This fact isn’t overly relevant, but is among the only press coverage the Mules have seen all season, indicative of their lack of success. An aerial attack is the only way to find their first win as Bates’ defense is vulnerable, and Jake Schwern has struggled with efficiency lately. This will be run game against passing game, and the end result will show which rebuilding team has more hope for the future.

Predicted Score: Bates 24, Colby 14

Amherst (5-1) @ Tufts (4-2), 1:30 PM, Medford, MA

Amherst is now back in the title conversation with their win over Wesleyan, beating the Cardinals when the Jumbos could not earlier this season. Their lack of a high ceiling, as I mentioned in accordance with Reece Foy’s limping return from injury, is not as valid as I earlier thought. Rather than centering on a strong QB and stellar offensive attack, RB Jack Hickey and QB Ollie Eberth are now among the supporting cast to their dominant defense. Hasani Figueroa and Hickey didn’t get much going against the strong Wesleyan defense, and while they should have more success this weekend, Tufts QB Ryan McDonald should be worried about the Mammoth pass rush. Andrew Yamin had an unbelievable performance, racking up 5.5 sacks on Piccirillo, and was only half of the total attack on the opposing QB. The Tufts run game should be neutralized and McDonald will lack enough time in the pocket to get a whole lot going.

Tufts had a much needed win against Williams, knocking off their first strong opponent of the season. Given their loss to Wesleyan and the Ephs’ win over Midd the week before, this was a surprising victory, showing the prowess of QB Ryan McDonald who was able to find nine different receivers on the day. Jay Tyler and Mike Pedrini both had success on the ground, but should face much more challenge in the ground game this weekend. The Jumbos hope comes on defense where their pass rush leads the league with 25 sacks, one more than the Mammoths’ total. Who’s D-Line is better? Both teams should revert to a more passing heavy attack, but might lack sufficient time to throw. Defense rules in this game.

Predicted Score: Amherst 21, Tufts 17

Hamilton (2-4) @ Williams (4-2), 1:30 PM, Williamstown, MA

Hamilton has been the beneficiary of two weak opponents these past two weeks, bringing their record to a respectable 2-4. If they win out, they could actually finish with a winning record, and given their 0-4 start, that is a good cause for playing hard. I don’t think they have any chance to do that as they only have one more weak opponent, but this could be the game where they show that their week one game was not total luck. They barely lost to Tufts, and I have looked at this game over and over again due to its shockingly close outcome, and after their loss to Tufts, Williams looks like a beatable opponent. While they barely knocked off Colby, they rallied from a 17-0 deficit, therefore dominating the second half of the game. With Kenny Gray moving up in the NESCAC QB ranks, and with a solid receiving core in Christian Donahoe and Joe Schmidt, they have a formidable enough offense to stick with the Ephs.

A relatively surprising loss to Tufts leaves Williams looking for a win. They have two losses on the year and need even more help than Wesleyan to share the ‘Cac crown. They do not control their own fate in any way even if they win out, and face a sneaky Hamilton team this Saturday. Without any production from rising RB star Rashad Morrison, leaving him as a question for Saturday’s game, Bobby Maimaron and company will need to find other ways to outscore the Continentals. Frank Stola and Adam Regensburg are Maimaron’s best offensive weapons, with Regensburg really coming on strongly as a WR, moving away from his defensive role. Kyle Horihan had a breakout defensive game against Tufts, leading the squad in tackles with 11 and an INT, and he should look to replicate that performance against an inconsistent Hamilton team. Despite their recent loss, Williams hasn’t lost a game by more than one possession and has the offense to outlast Hamilton regardless of how Gray and Donahoe play.

Predicted Score: Williams 31, Hamilton 21

Upset Central: Football Stock Report 10/16

Now that we are officially over the halfway point of the season, we are finally seeing more surprising performances with the first upset of the season in the books and the race for the championship is heating up. With a loss for Middlebury (4-1), their title hopes are diminished although still alive, Trinity (5-0) now controls its own fate, and Williams (4-1) looks to stay hot on the Bantams’ tail. Hamilton (1-4) finally found the win column, and even Bates (0-5) had some fireworks against Wesleyan (4-1). Five weeks down, four to go, lots of excitement is in the air as the weather starts to turn chilly. Here are where the stocks stand:

Stock Up

Trinity’s Secondary

John Medina
John Medina ’18 has led a strong secondary for Trinity all season.

While Trinity (5-0) has been the best defensive team in the conference all year, they showed how scary they are with their win over Tufts (3-2) on Saturday by a score of 23-16. They may have allowed a season high 16 points–which is ridiculous in its own right–but also picked off Ryan McDonald three times. McDonald is no schmuck and knows what he is doing. It is good news for the Bantams that all three of their stud starters in John Medina, Sameir Madden, and Dominique Seagers intercepted him, including a decisive 100 yard pick-6 by Seagers. The Bantams now average 7.6 PPG allowed, leading the NESCAC in INTs with seven. Watch out, Griff Stalcup.

Bobby Maimaron’s Clutch Gene

Williams obviously had to get a shout out here, and who better to get one on their team than Maimaron who led his team to victory with a two minute drill TD drive, ending the game at a final score of 27-26 over Midd. The drive was 80 yards in 2:19, and Maimaron was 8/10 passing, throwing for 70 yards, and rushing for 17. He accounted for 87 yards on the drive (all of them), with a five yard penalty and loss of two on a fumble by Rashad Morrison adding to the length of the drive. The young Williams signal-caller channeled his inner Drew Brees (https://www.si.com/2014/09/18/nfl-quarterbacks-two-minute-drill-analytics) in this game winning march, propelling the Ephs to the win over the previously high and mighty Panthers. Not only was this last drive remarkable, but so was keeping the team together for the entire game, throwing for two TDs and zero INTs against a top Panthers secondary who abused Amherst in week four, and rushing for 93 yards and another TD. I can now say that there has been an upset in the ‘CAC this year, thanks in large part to Maimaron.

Hope for the Bottom Four 

Yes, last week I was a bit harsh on Bates (0-5), Colby (0-5), Bowdoin (0-5), and Hamilton (1-4). I’m not saying I was wrong about them—they are still exceptionally weaker than the other six teams in the NESCAC, and in the conference, all teams are either good or bad, with nobody in between. With that being said, although this season is a lost cause for those four squads, they have hope for the future. They can find this hope in the 2017 Williams football season. Williams went from 0-8 in 2016 to 4-1 in 2017 thus far, knocking off one of the favorites in Middlebury with a last second TD pass from a first year QB to a first year receiver. This sudden turnaround is eerily similar to Tufts’ from 2013-2015, although it took the Jumbos two seasons to really contend. They went from 0-8 in 2013 to 4-4 in 2015 to 6-2 in 2015, and both programs prove to the less hopeful squads that in fact, within one season, they could make a jump into the thick of NESCAC competition. This is the general nature of college football, with rapid turnover in player personnel, but further evidence of this is certainly encouraging to these bottom teams.

Stock Down

Wesleyan Defensive Line

While Bates QB Brendan Costa’ 21 only threw for 97 yards, the Wesleyan defense only managed to sack him one time, for one yard, and only had four tackles for a loss on the day. Four tackles behind the line of scrimmage isn’t too bad, but considering the amount that Bates ran the ball, especially the number of attempts by Costa, they should’ve stopped the ground game more than they did. They allowed 287 rushing yards on 47 carries, good for 6.1 yards per carry. This high number of yards on the ground is due in large part to how Bates improved but also shows weakness in this Cardinals defense which looked vulnerable against the unthreatening Bobcats. Wesleyan almost surely has to win out to have a shot at the title, and allowing such an offensive outburst from a team that had only scored 48 points going into week five is not a good sign. The final score of the game was 41-23 and Trinity for reference allowed zero points against Bates. In order to win the conference, Wesleyan not only has to beat the Bantams but will have to stop Max Chipouras similarly to how Williams did. If they continue to allow over 200 yards on the ground, they won’t have a shot.

Bates ran all over the Wesleyan defensive line last weekend.

Tufts’ Title Chances

Tufts is just about eliminated from title contention with their second loss of the season against Trinity. In the loss, their defense didn’t play badly and they certainly had a chance to win, as the game was tied with just over seven minutes to play. Chipouras ran in the deciding TD and Tufts ended up punting on the next possession, unable to shut down Trinity in time to get the ball back. They may not have played poorly in this one, but they needed the win, and Trinity isn’t likely to lose two games the rest of the way. There are also four other teams ahead of the Jumbos in the standings now. Ryan McDonald struggled, neither passing nor running well for the first time this season, only finding 15 yards on the ground, and finding Trinity DBs three times as mentioned earlier. He also lost a fumble, and those four turnovers made it tough for Tufts to have any chance against a reliable Trinity offense. With wins against only Bates, Bowdoin, and Hamilton, they haven’t beaten a quality team yet, and nearly lost to the Continentals, showing that they are the closest to an average team that the NESCAC has.

Maine Football

With an overwhelming amount of NESCAC schools located in Maine, they have an disproportionate number of wins for their representation. Bates, Colby, and Bowdoin are now a combined 0-15, with the closest to a win for any of them being a 14 point loss (Bowdoin’s 14 vs. Williams’s 24, Week 1). That is not good. Luckily they will all play each other by the season’s end, and then we will know who the worst of the worst is. Bates had some bright spots against Wesleyan, looking like the favorite to win the CBB Consortium, but their wins against each other will likely be the only wins they find all year.

First Year Phenom: Get to Know Williams QB Bobby Maimeron ’21

The story of Williams’ rapid resurgence has been the stellar play of their first years. TJ Rothman ’21 and Jarrett Wesner ’21 share the team lead in tackles with 38 each, anchoring a defense that is 2nd in the NESCAC in both points allowed and yards allowed. 5 different first years have found the end zone already this season, led by Frank Stola ’21’s 5 to go along with his 632 all-purpose yards, which are 2nd in the league as well.

Bobby Maimaron
Bobby Maimeron ’21 (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)

But as is the case for almost all good teams, it starts and ends with the quarterback position, and that has been no different for the Ephs, who have had  stellar quarterback play from rookie Bobby Maimaron ’21. Off to an already impressive start, Maimaron turned in the best performance of his short college career when he exploded for 334 yards of total offense and 4 TDs in a 47-14 trouncing of Bates, a showing that earned him his first NESCAC Offensive Player of the Week honors. Through 4 weeks, Maimaron has thrown for 7 touchdowns and added another with his feet, but most importantly has only turned the ball over twice, a huge reason why Williams has jumped out to a 3-1 start, quickly putting last year’s winless campaign in the rearview mirror.

Maimaron, from Duxbury, MA, came into Williams with a lot of buzz. Named the 2016-17 Gatorade Massachusetts Player of the Year, Maimaron broke the state passing touchdown record, throwing for 122, 40 of which came in his senior year, in addition to winning the MIAA Division II State championship. Despite having his sights set on the Ivy League, he made the choice to commit to Coach Raymond and Williams before his senior season started. “I just wanted to make a decision and get it out of the way, so I could focus on the season. The Ivy’s, they kept putting me off, telling me ‘We’ll let you know next week’, then the week after that, the week after that. Once Harvard took another quarterback I chose Williams. They were the first school to start recruiting me, and I really liked Coach Raymond and the rest of the staff, they’re great people and it’s such a great school”. But he didn’t exactly show up on day 1 of camp as the anointed starter. “I figured I had a good chance to win the job coming in. I had played in a spread offense in high school and thought I would be able to pick up on this system pretty quickly”, Bobby said, but added that “to be honest with you, I didn’t really know what the competition was going to look like”.

An injury to his leg kept him out of camp for a week, adding another challenge to the already difficult task of transitioning to playing college football, as well as living on his own for the first time. The NESCAC’s practice rules mean that the football team, as well as the rest of the fall athletes, move in at the same time as everybody else. So once he got all settled in, it was time to jump right into football. “It was tough having to get up at 7 and have practice and meetings and other team stuff all day, and then back to my room at 11, exhausted, and have to study and try to learn more new plays on offense, and just do that for 10 days in a row basically. Being out because of my leg for a week, I just felt helpless, like there wasn’t a lot I could do except continue to learn the offense”.

But Maimaron, was able to come back in time and win the job for Week 1 at home against Bowdoin. It took the offense a little bit to get going, but early in the second quarter Maimaron and Frank Stola ’21 connected for a 93 yard touchdown pass to put the Ephs up 7-0, leading to an eventual 28-14 win in which Maimaron threw for 283 yards and 2 TDs. “When Frankie broke that tackle, and we were able to get that first [touchdown] off of our backs, it just gave us so much confidence, and kind of vindicated us starting 6 freshmen [on offense], and that’s kind of carried through so far. I feel so much more confident now than I did that first game against Bowdoin, it feels like a different game now”.

Maimeron tore Bates apart with four touchdown passes last week, and will look do the same against Middlebury.

Maimaron and his fellow stand out classmates have given Williams a lot to get excited about, not just for the next four years, but for this season as well. The Ephs are in an interesting spot. Though they are 3-1, their three wins have come against Bowdoin, Bates, Colby, who are a combined 0-12. Their game against Trinity, an ugly 17-9 loss, was their only real test of the year, one that many feel they passed, despite the outcome. But a trip to Middlebury this week to face the 4-0 Panthers is a real chance for them to prove just how good they feel they can be. “We’re excited for this week” Maimaron said, “we’ve gotten so much better over this first month and a half, and we want to show it in our remaining games against some good teams”. If the Ephs continue to improve week to week as they have so far this year, it is not unrealistic to think that they could win 7 or 8 games. None of these freshmen have looked like freshmen, and as long as Maimaron continues to set that tone, the sky is the limit for this group. It will certainly be something to keep an eye on in the Purple Valley.