Bowdoin finished their NESCAC season on a three game winning streak against Bates, Middlebury and Tufts to jump up all the way to the #2 seed in the tournament. Williams just lost by more than 20 points at home to Wesleyan. Yet this might be the most intriguing quarterfinal game because it matches two very different styles of play against one another. Williams lives and dies on the perimeter with Dan Wohl ’15 and Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15 while Bowdoin still relies on their strong interior defense.
Last time they played:
Bowdoin jumped out to a 17-point lead as Williams scored only 23 first half points. The lead got all the way up to 20 points for the Polar Bears before Williams starting chipping away. A Ryan Kilcullen ’15 three with 0:48 left brought the Ephs to within three, but Bowdoin was able to salt the game away with free throws to win 67-60. Williams barely ever went inside and finished the game with eight made two point field goals and 12 made three point field goals. The Ephs stayed in the game by upping their defensive intensity in the second half and allowing only 27 second half points.
The rosters look somewhat different from the first time these two played, however. Keegan Pieri ’15 led Bowdoin with 20 points and 10 rebounds in the last matchup, but he is out for the season. Also, Neil Fuller ’17 was out with a leg injury, but he is now back and has played some minutes to give Bowdoin more depth in the frontcourt. Meanwhile, Rooke-Ley did not play in the first game for Williams but is fully healthy now.
Bowdoin X-factor: Center John Swords ’15
Since the 6’7″ Kilcullen is Williams’ tallest player, one might have expected for Swords to dominate in the first match-up, but he only managed four points, tied for his season low. Bowdoin still scored a lot of easy points in the paint because of Pieri but without him, Swords needs to step up. He has been more aggressive offensively since Pieri went down. He has started to put the ball on the floor one time and make a move to the basket that usually ends in a layup. Smaller defenders often times can deal with his height, but it is the length that comes along with that height which really gives defenders problems. Swords will simply go around players who try to defend him straight up. A couple of baskets early for Swords would be huge. On the other end, if Bowdoin plays man, Swords has to be able to get out on Kilcullen on the perimeter and keep the Boston College transfer from hitting too many threes. Of course, that puts him in the conundrum of being away from the basket which is where he makes the biggest impact for Bowdoin.
Williams X-Factor: Point Guard Mike Greenman ’17
We might be seeing a transformation in how Greenman plays point guard. The sophomore has never been afraid to shoot the ball and also got into the lane and turned the ball over a lot. In recent weeks, he has shot less and, more importantly, his turnovers are down. In conference play he has averaged 1.7 turnovers per game compared to 3.6 in out of conference games. Over his past seven games Greenman has a 3.5 assist/turnover ratio, far above his 1.6 ratio for the season. During that same seven game period, Greenman has scored less than 4.0 PPG and shot only 4-24 (16.7 percent) from three. Greenman knows he is struggling and is adjusting his play because of it. It was just one play, but on Tuesday against Castleton State we witnessed Greenman pass up a wide open three in order to pass to Dan Aronowitz ’17 who drove to the lane for an easy layup. He needs to keep making the right play, and if he makes a couple of early shots too? Look out.
Three Big Questions
1. How different are these teams from the last time they played?
On the surface the presence of Rooke-Ley and Fuller combined with the absence of Pieri would seem like it would have a huge effect. The truth though is that Bowdoin and Williams have played basically the same with or without those guys. Bowdoin’s conference record with Pieri was 3-1 and 4-2 without him, and they played a harder schedule after Pieri got hurt. The Ephs went 2-2 in conference without Rooke-Ley and 3-3 with him while playing harder games without him. It isn’t like those players don’t help their teams when they are on the floor, but when they are out, other players step up. For Williams that was Aronowitz, and Bowdoin has seen Matt Palecki ’16 and Jack Hewitt ’17 combine to help Bowdoin work without Pieri.
2. Can Bowdoin play zone?
Usually when a team has as many shooters as Williams does, it is unthinkable for a team to play zone against them. For Bowdoin, they might need to play zone because they don’t have personnel to stop everyone. The zone that Bowdoin plays is not a simple 2-3 zone with each player sitting in his zone. Instead, Bowdoin plays a matchup zone centered around Swords. He always stays near the basket and only leaves the paint as a last resort if an open player is going to get a three. The four other players basically float around the perimeter switching on screens and always having one player they guard. The scheme requires constant communication and no missteps on defense. On Monday, Husson burned Bowdoin at times with penetration and ball movement. The weakness of the defense is certainly in defending the three point line. If Williams starts whipping the ball around the three point line and hitting open threes, Bowdoin will have to go man.
3. How does Williams slow Lucas Hausman ’16?
Last Saturday Tufts managed to slow down Hausman simply by playing zone against Bowdoin. Williams is unlikely to take that route because they have played almost exclusively man-to-man all season. Wohl will likely get the first crack at Hausman, but Aronowitz should also draw the assignment at times. Both are good defenders and have the right combination of quickness and size to give Hausman problems in theory. No doubt Williams has spent this week dissecting all the film they have on Hausman. They know he likes to get a great first step when he drives right and LOVES to spin into a fadeaway jumper when he drives left. What makes Hausman hard to defend is that he doesn’t use pick and roll so you can only double him once he starts making a move to the basket. Limiting his chances in transition is also crucial for Williams.
What to Expect
I haven’t really even talked yet about the offensive fireworks that Wohl and Rooke-Ley regularly produce or the importance of Bryan Hurley ’15 to everything Bowdoin does. Wohl has struggled shooting the ball from the outside (30.4 percent from deep in NESCAC games). If he does guard Hausman, the outcome of that matchup very well could decide who wins NESCAC Player of the Year. Rooke-Ley is so dangerous from behind the arc that having a hand in his face often isn’t good enough. Hurley has looked more and more comfortable as the season has gone along, and Bowdoin will look to use him and Swords in pick and rolls to put pressure on the Ephs.
These two teams have very different roster makeups so each presents problems for the other. The team that is more effective in exploiting their mismatches will win. For Bowdoin, their advantage is their size inside. We covered Swords above, but the size difference extends to the power forward position where Palecki is tough to move around inside. The edge for Williams is on the perimeter obviously. They need to have everyone hitting their threes so that Bowdoin can’t key on Wohl and Rooke-Ley. Forcing turnovers and going on runs is also important for them. This might be the highest variable game because of how Williams plays. I can see a comfortable Williams win just as easily as a Bowdoin rout. In the end, I think Hausman and Hurley do enough to offset Wohl and Rooke-Ley and Bowdoin pulls out a very entertaining game.
Prediction: Bowdoin 78 – Williams 73
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