It’s spring in the NESCAC, and we all know what that means—no sun, rain, and a dreary atmosphere. This weekend, however, we have a reason to get outside—baseball’s opening weekend is finally here. While most NESCACs have returned north for the regular season, Middlebury and Williams are enjoying their last few days in the relative paradise of Arizona (where the temperature is cruising at a lovely 81 degrees).
Two to Watch
1. OF Kenny Collins ’17 (Hamilton): In the Continentals’ last week of spring training, Collins hit .500 and earned an OBP of .600, either hitting safely or walking in all four games of their games. In Hamilton’s 14-8 win against Bowdoin, he went 3-for-4 with three RBIs. Right now, he’s flaunting a .400 AVG, .510 OBP and .575 SLG. His hitting hasn’t yielded much distance yet—he’s only hit two doubles, one triple, and one homerun (yes, that walk-off one)—but Collins’ consistency and reliability will be a godsend against Amherst. Collins also has zero errors so far this year, and the Continentals need to play a clean defense if they want any chance of defeating the Jeffs.
2. SS Matt Moser ’16 (Tufts): Last week Moser had eight RBIs, plus an epic grand slam, in Tufts’ win at Averett and then was 3-6 with two runs and an RBI against Lynchburg. By the end of the week, he had racked up a total of 10 RBIs. Playing in all of Tufts’ six games of the week, he had multiple hits and runs in three of the games. He boasts a .535 slugging percentage and remains one of the Jumbo’s top batters. He will definitely make an appearance at shortstop this weekend, but his presence at the plate will be far more crucial for Tufts’ series against Bates.
The Picks
Opening weekend is jam-packed with NESCAC contests: Bowdoin vs. Trinity; Wesleyan vs. Colby; Williams vs. Middlebury. But when it comes to longevity—how these games and their participating teams will impact the 2016 season—two matchups bear the most intrigue.
Hamilton (0-0, 9-5) vs. Amherst (0-0, 10-2): Friday 3:30 PM, Saturday 12 PM & 2:30 PM
***If Friday’s matchup is rained out, the teams will reschedule the game for Sunday. This will be determined closer to game time.***
Who’s on the mound: Cole Dreyfuss ’16, Spencer Vogelbach ’18 & Dan DePaoli ’18 vs. Jackson Volle ’17, Riley Streit ’16 & Wilson Taylor ’19
(Hamilton head coach Tim Byrnes has yet to announce the order for his pitchers but designated these players as a part of his rotation. Amherst head coach Brian Hamm was unavailable, but it’s likely the Jeffs will rely upon some combination of these players.)
Hamilton is really unlucky at Amherst—the Continentals haven’t won a series there since 2007. This year, Hamilton’s squad looks stronger and more cohesive than in recent years, but history is working against them here.
Amherst has been the best team in terms of record thus far, but if you look at both teams’ overall stats, there isn’t much of a difference. At the plate, Hamilton’s holding a nice .356/.450/.483 line after 14 games compared to Amherst’s .332/.414/.448 after 12. The dangerous pack of Hamilton juniors, led by Brett Mele ’17, Ryan Wolfsberg ’17 and Collins, continues to torment pitchers. That hitting force will only grow stronger this weekend should CF Chris Collins ’17 and 3B Dean Rosenberg ’17 be cleared to return to the lineup in their 5 and 6 slots, respectively. Amherst’s Ariel Kenney ’18, Max Steinhorn ’18 and Yanni Thanopoulus ’17 lead the team with .408, .357 and .357 BA. Amherst has a lot of other guys capable of stepping this weekend too.
Their pitching stats are closer, 3.73 ERA for the Continentals and 3.82 for the Jeffs. Volle kicked off a stellar junior season over spring break with his 0.82 ERA after throwing for 22 innings. In Hamilton’s rotation, Vogelbach has seen about as many innings, and while his 3.00 ERA is mighty nice, it’s not on the same level as Volle’s. Actually, Hamilton’s rookie pitcher Max Jones ’19 holds the team’s lowest ERA, 1.59 in 17 innings pitched. The kid deserves major props—he missed a full season due to shoulder surgery before starting his collegiate career.
It’s only on the defense that Amherst really outplays Hamilton, as their .973 FPCT at 13 errors is far better than the latter’s .941 FPCT and 25 errors. Fielding percentage can be a fickle thing, but the propensity for Hamilton to let down their pitchers and committing a crucial error is there.
The Jeffs have always been main contenders in NESCAC baseball, especially in the last few seasons, giving them an upper hand. They excel in all five phases. Hamilton is the underdog, a big fish in a small pond of even bigger fish that hasn’t quite learned how to not flounder yet. The Continentals are definitely going to come out strong this weekend and give the hosts a tighter game than they’ve played in the past, but we don’t want to overvalue Hamilton’s fresh success over Amherst’s years of experience.
Prediction: Amherst wins two of three.
Tufts (0-0, 7-3) vs. Bates (0-0, 7-8): Saturday 1:00 PM & 3:30 PM, Sunday 1:00 PM
Who’s on the mound: Tim Superko ’17, Speros Varinos ’17, Andrew David ’16 & RJ Hall ’19 vs. Connor Colombo ’16, Connor Speed ’18 & Anthony Telesca ’17 (Both teams’ head coaches have yet to decide who will be the starting pitchers for each game but have designated these players in the rotation).
Isn’t it nice to have so many talented players that you can mix up the lineup without sacrificing skill and success? Tufts sure thinks so. Head coach John Casey emphasized the team’s great depth, saying that having an abundance of talented and experienced players has allowed for the team to experiment with rotations and lineups. The team had somewhat of a slow start to spring training, but now that NESCAC games are here, the Jumbos are ready to go. Superko and David have started a little slow, but they are proven pitchers. In 16 innings, Hall has struck out 17 batters, and his 1.13 ERA is one of the best in the conference.
Unlike Tufts, Bates is still stuck in a surprising rut with a less than favorable win percentage of 0.467. After making it to the NESCAC playoffs last season, the Bobcats are struggling to play competitive ball. Overall, they’ve been relatively successful on the mound, averaging 8.20 K/G and 4.87 ERA. Colombo, Telesca and Speed hold high positions in NESCAC standings with respective 1.74, 2.84 and 3.36 ERAs. The Connors are especially ruthless, striking out a total of 40 batters while allowing only 12 to walk. All three of those starters will be asked to go late into the game, and that will be difficult against the patient approach of Tufts.
Neither team, however, has the hitting power we like to see on both sides, with Tufts only averaging .302 and the plate while Bates trails behind them at an ugly .269. Tufts’ Harry Brown ’17, Moser and Cody McCallum ’16 have come into their own, hitting .615, .366 and .359, but we’re still waiting for Tommy O’Hara ’18 to pick up where he left off last season. Bates’ Brendan Fox ’17 has consistently been hitting dynamite, easily obtaining a nice .453/.500/.623 line, and John Dinucci ’17 also has a commendable baseline of .333/.370 /.392, but the other Bobcats have yet to pull their weight offensively. Either this will be the weekend both teams get their batting acts together or we will be seeing some low-scoring games.
Prediction: Tufts wins three.