Amherst (3-3) at Trinity (6-0), 12:30 PM, Hartford, CT
This matchup doesn’t have quite as much on the line as last weekend, but the eyes of every team still in the running for the crown will be glancing towards this game’s scoreboard. So while this game carries tremendous implications for Trinity, Tufts, Wesleyan, and Middlebury, it’s like this is the NLCS series and the World Series happened last week. I’m not trying to discount Amherst, but there isn’t quite as much excitement here. Now, optimistically, could Amherst be like the Cubs and make an improbable comeback into the NESCAC race? Or could they play the role of spoiler and really spice up the race to the top as the season winds down? Well, we thought that last weekend could’ve been the quasi-championship game, but who knows what could happen if Amherst tops the favored Bantams. Amherst won’t win the NESCAC and comeback from a 3-1-esque deficit like Chicago, but they do certainly have a strong enough team and rush defense to give Trinity a good run for their money and mess with their plans of bringing the title back to Hartford. Let’s dive into it.
November 7th, 2015, Amherst Defeats Trinity 16-7 in Amherst, MA
Last year, Trinity scored first on a Max Chipouras ’19 touchdown but didn’t find the end zone again. Amherst successfully shut down Chipouras for most of the game and held him to just 3.4 yards per carry, not even close to his 2016 average of 6.1 yds/carry. In this defensively dominated game, Sonny Puzzo ’18 got picked off twice, however it is clear that he made great strides to improve his accuracy this year. His TD: INT ratio of 13:2 is worlds better than last year’s 5:8 tally, and he has been nearly perfect through 3/4 of this season. Wide receiver David Boehm ’17 is the only big contributor on offense from Amherst that remains since Reece Foy hasn’t played all year, and unfortunately for the Purple and White, both Alex Berluti ‘17 and Nick Morales ’19 are significant downgrades from the standout Foy. These teams are both different animals from last year, and this season there’s no question that Trinity is more of a beast. However, if Amherst can pull off the upset and stop Chipouras, then Middlebury, Tufts and Wesleyan may yet have hope.
Trinity X-Factor: RB Max Chipouras ‘19
Chipouras usually would be left off one of my X-Factor lists just because he would be an obvious force and leader during the game. Now, this week is no different – he will be a force- but since each team has a shutdown defense, these teams likely won’t be scoring upwards of 40 points as Trinity usually does. Chipouras rushes for 124.3 yds/game at 6.1 yds/carry and over a TD per game (seven on the year). Without him, Trinity would probably still be 6-0 since the only game that they played that was remotely close was against Tufts, who scored a lot of garbage time points. With that being said, however, since Trinity’s ground game is their main offensive threat, if Amherst can shut down Chipouras and hold him to their average 63 rushing yards allowed per game, then things will get very interesting in Hartford. If Chipouras slows down this weekend, Puzzo will need to find more than his usual 194.7 yds/game. If Chipouras does find some running room, however, this game might not stay close for long.
Amherst X-Factor: QB Alex Berluti ‘19
You might be expecting a couple linebackers here, since I just mentioned how important stopping the dominant Chipouras will be for Amherst, however, it’s pretty plain and simple: Trinity is going to beat Amherst if Chipouras runs all over them. The Amherst rush defense has been solid all year, so it will just come down to who is better: Trinity’s rushing attack or Amherst’s rush defense. Alex Berluti is another big question mark heading into the game for the visitors. A second stringer last year, Berluti finds himself in the lime light for a storied football program, heading to Connecticut to face the big bad wolf in the ‘Coop. Yikes. It’s safe to say Berluti isn’t living the Alex Moran lifestyle anymore, and hasn’t had a lot of luck come his way this year. He fared well against Hamilton, respectably against Bowdoin until he got injured, and returned in what was a mediocre performance last weekend in the loss to Tufts. He did complete 20 of 43 passes, but Berluti didn’t find the end zone at all, he threw two picks and he got sacked four times. Amherst is going to rely on Berluti tomorrow, and for him to take them from the henhouse to the promised land, a lot is going to have to improve from last weekend.
Everything Else
Amherst got absolutely dominated against Wesleyan two weeks ago, however, a change in QB left them a little closer to victory against Tufts. Wesleyan’s defense is statistically the best in the league, and they picked off Nick Morales ’19 five times, but Berluti didn’t fare much better last weekend. All in all, Amherst’s QBs have 0 TDs and 7 INTs in the past two weeks. Ouch. Trinity’s monster defense, including Spencer Donahue ’17 and Archi Jerome ’17, is not going to let the Purple and White walk all over them. The ‘Coop should be a madhouse this weekend as it’s senior day for the graduating Bantams and their undefeated record is on the line. The Amherst signal caller has a lot to be weary of and a great challenge ahead of him.
Regardless of opposing quarterback play, Trinity really seems to be firing on all cylinders right now. Their win against Middlebury last weekend was a nod to how much more dominant they are than any other team. Midd looked like they were primed to come into Hartford and knock the Bantams down, but what a cold world it is for Panther fans. Trinity didn’t bat an eye last weekend, and it wasn’t a fluke. Trinity was better from start to finish, and they never let up – maybe they learned to keep the pedal to the metal after Tufts’ late comeback attempt. Looking ahead, the real NESCAC championship could be next weekend between the Connecticut squads, but the Bantams have to take care of business first. Amherst was the favorite going into the year, but they have fallen mightily these past few weeks and are teetering into the second tier of teams in the league if they get blown out this weekend. The Purple and White have a tough road ahead of them and I have no reason to believe that this is the week for Amherst to turn it around. This game reminds me less of a 2016 Cubs vs. Indians world series and more of a Yankees vs. Padres world series circa 1998 (Yeah, I was one year old when that happened and am still salty about it). Is this game in Hartford or Titletown?