An Intriguing Start: Week 1 Power Rankings 1/12

Johnny McCarthy ’18 was up to his old tricks this weekend leading Amherst to a 1-0 start in conference play (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics).

This was a very fun weekend of NESCAC basketball. There were some predictable results, some upsets, and some up-and-comers made statements. I’ll save my talking for the individual team write-ups, but this league looks pretty competitive after the first weekend. Time will tell, but it’s good to see that the depth of the NESCAC is here to stay. Enjoy the power rankings.

1.) #5 Amherst (10-2, 1-0)

Amherst was one of two teams with just one win this weekend, but that is also because they were one of two teams with just one game. The Purple and White took down hated-rival Williams on Friday night 80-72 behind the play of usual suspects Jayde Dawson ‘17 and Johnny McCarthy ‘18, who had 19 and 15 points respectively. However, as is also the norm with Amherst, it was a full team effort that powered them to victory – six total players had eight points or more, and Coach Hixon received 30 points off the bench. Meanwhile, Williams had more of a two-pronged attack between Dan Aronowitz ‘17 and Cole Teal ‘18. Aronowitz put up what has become his standard 21-point/6-rebound performance, while Teal provided the Ephs with a deep threat, knocking down six three-pointers en route to 26 points on 9-16 shooting. Despite Teal’s efforts, it was the three-ball that killed the Ephs, as they were unable to keep up with Amherst’s deep-threat: Amherst hit 11 threes, while Williams sunk just eight, which proved to be the difference in the game. The Amherst offense was clicking on all cylinders on Friday, earning them the #1 nod in the power rankings.

2.) #6 Tufts (11-2, 2-0)

Tufts got back to playing the type of basketball they know how to play this weekend with two pretty stress-free wins over Bowdoin and Colby. Tom Palleschi ‘17 and Tarik Smith ‘17 led the way for the Jumbos: Palleschi earned a double-double on Friday night with 16 points and 11 boards, which he followed up with a 10-point/9-rebound performance at Colby on Saturday. Meanwhile, Smith, who has consistently been the leader of the Jumbo offense this season, put up 17/6/7 on Friday and 11/7/3 on Saturday. Smith has been there for Tufts thus far, and different guys have rotated in with big games here and there, but Coach Sheldon has to be happy to see Palleschi starting to get hot. More importantly, as a team the Jumbos scored 82 points in the paint this weekend (out of 161 total points). That is a great sign for a team that plays best when they get to the basket. One Achilles Heel for Tufts is their performance from the charity stripe. Though the Jumbos are often towards the top of the league in free throw attempts, they are currently shooting 67.4% from the line, good for the second worst mark in the league. However, there may be a correlation here between poor free throw shooting and winning games, because Amherst is ranked last in the league in free throw percentage – I may be onto something here…In any event, with Tufts’ fast-paced offense and ridiculous number of FGA/G (~64), increasing that FT percentage by even a few percentage points could be the difference down the stretch of a couple tight games this weekend.

3.) #15 Middlebury (11-1, 2-0)

Now I still don’t know the reason why, but some interesting news about Middlebury Basketball came to me NBN over the weekend (which Colby mentioned yesterday in his weekend review): Zach Baines is no longer a Panther. I don’t know why this is the case, and I don’t quite possess the sources that Chris Broussard and Adam Schefter do, so I don’t know if I’ll ever hear the full story. However, what I can tell you is that Baines is now an Occidental College Tiger

It’s unclear at this point how this will affect Middlebury in the long-run, but I can tell you this much: it did not affect them this weekend. The Panthers put up one of their most complete team performances of the season against Wesleyan on Friday, something that Wesleyan just couldn’t match. While their scoring was pretty widespread, Middlebury excelled on the defensive end by baiting Wesleyan into bad shots and feasting on their carelessness with the ball, the combination of which led to the eventual 18-point blowout. Saturday proved to be just as impressive for Midd, however this was more of a show of their offensive prowess than their defensive play. While the Panthers allowed a number of Camels to score pretty frequently, Middlebury really stuck it to Conn’s defense, especially Matt St. Amour ‘17, who followed up his 21-point performance on Friday with a 31-point special on Saturday. Frankly, the Panthers just shot the lights out, which was largely a result of their comfort sharing the rock. The 97-89 victory capped a nice weekend for the Panthers, who now head into their biggest test yet at Tufts on Friday.

 

4.) Hamilton (10-2, 2-0)

Well, well, well, it appears Hamilton is for real for real. The Continentals led the NESCAC in scoring before the break, which I thought was due to a less difficult out of conference schedule than some other teams play. I was wrong. Hamilton posted a pair of 16-point victories this weekend against Conn (86-70) and Wesleyan (92-76), proving that they are in fact ready to make a push in the ‘CAC. Their 87.3 PPG leads the league, while they do so at a pretty efficient rate of 47.5% shooting. Though they are a big deep threat, Hamilton has shown the ability to hit open shots from outside at times, allowing them to get into the paint, an area where they do quite a bit of damage. This past weekend’s success stemmed from an even distribution of scoring, as six players scored in double-digits on Friday and four did on Saturday, including two players off the bench each day. The trust of this young squad in one another screams maturity, and it certainly bodes well for the Continentals moving forward. They will face two other 2-0 squads this weekend at Bates and Tufts, which will be a big test for the Hamilton youth.

 

5.) Trinity (9-5, 1-0)

Ed Ogundeko (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)

Like last year, the Bantams looked a lot more impressive on the opening weekend of NESCAC play than they did during their non-conference schedule. As predicted, Trinity kept their sole contest of the weekend low-scoring, beating Williams by a score of 65-63 in Williamstown. On the year, Trinity is allowing just 66.4 PPG, while they are scoring 74.7. Seems like a formula for success, right? Well, their lack of playmakers definitely pointed towards a lower scoring output this weekend against the Ephs, but their ability to force Williams into tough shots is what won Trinity the game. They held Teal to just 3 points on 0-4 shooting, and Aronowitz was only able to drop 10 on the stingy Bantams defense. Meanwhile, Trinity’s slow-it-down style on offense proved to be very effective. While the Bants didn’t shoot the ball exceptionally well, they turned the ball over just 9 times. If Trinity can continue to take care of the ball like this and avoid empty trips on the offensive end, they are going to be alright. Oh, and I guess I should mention that NESCAC POW Ed Ogundeko ‘17 scored 15 and grabbed 23 boards. Not too shabby, Ed. If Ogundeko can maintain his high level of play, Trinity will continue to rack up wins against teams that lack a dominant big man.

 

6.) Bates (11-3, 2-0)

Tom Coyne had a big weekend for the Bobcats (Courtesy of Bates Athletics).

I honestly feel like this is too high for Bates, but until they prove to be unfit for the position, I can’t argue that Bates is deserving of the #6 ranking in the power rankings. Bates took care of business at Colby and at Bowdoin this weekend. Though the opponents are not the most impressive, any time you can sweep a road trip in the NESCAC, you are doing something right. The outside shooting on Friday night was pretty remarkable, as the Bobcats drained 9-19 three-pointers en route to a 13-point victory. Add that to their solid defense and the Colby game had ‘Bates W’ written all over it. On Saturday, the offense was stifled by the Bowdoin D a bit, but Tom Coyne ‘20 stepped up in a big way by adding 23 points for the Bobcats. Despite these two solid victories, one thing jumps out as a concern about Bates in the long-run. First of all, they don’t really get to the free throw line. Bates only shot 22 free throws this weekend – that is bad. On a team where your two big men are supposed to be the dominant forces, it’s just unacceptable to only be attempting 11 FTA/G in NESCAC play. You can’t argue that it was the matchups either, because while Bates is tied for most games played in the conference, they have attempted the second-least free throws in the league! Bates is not going to beat teams in transition, and frankly, they have no desire to (they scored zero fastbreak points this weekend). That’s fine. But Bates cannot rely on the three-ball like they have so far as they face more and more teams that are very familiar with their style of play. Bates is doing fine for now, but they are going to need a more consistent effort out of their interior players if they want to make things happen throughout the rest of the NESCAC season.

 

7.) Williams (11-3, 0-2)

Williams was dealt a tough hand to start conference play, and they were not able to perform. On Friday night, the Ephs lost a close battle to Amherst simply because they allowed Amherst to outshoot them on the perimeter. Teal did all he could, but the Ephs simply couldn’t muster up the same type of outside shooting that their bitter rival did. Williams also did a pretty poor job of getting to the foul line, attempting just 12 free throws compared to Amherst’s 20, and if not for the ugly performance of the Purple and White at the free throw line, this game probably wouldn’t have been too close. It was a completely different story on Sunday, Williams simply couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn from three-point range, shooting a measly 26.1% from beyond the arc. The issue for Williams right now is that their big men are not doing their job as well as they could be. The Ephs were posted a rebounding margin of -14 on the weekend, highlighting their shortcomings inside. There are some positives, however. Williams played two very strong teams this weekend. Amherst is ranked #5 in the nation, while Trinity is starting to come into their own as of late and just so happens to be the biggest matchup nightmare that Williams will encounter in Ogundeko. While this doesn’t make Williams feel better, necessarily, it makes their losses more understandable. Another encouraging sign is that Bobby Casey ‘19 stepped up on Sunday when Teal and Aronowitz didn’t, so they have other guys that can get the job done. Williams is still growing, and once they learn to put it all together, they will be very good.

 

8.) Wesleyan (11-3, 0-2)

Now I admit, Hamilton and Middlebury are two of the better teams in this league, but getting blown out by 18 in the NESCAC opener is not ideal. Wesleyan, a team that had looked pretty dominant through their first 11 games, has now fallen into a three-game slide. Against Middlebury, the root of Wesleyan’s problems was their inability to take care of the rock. 21 turnovers and a -8 turnover margin is not conducive to winning basketball games, plain and simple. Not to mention they shot 4-17 from deep. You know that saying, “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it”? Well, Wesleyan, your jump shots were broken beyond repair on Friday night – when that is the case, you’ve gotta take the ball to the hoop, especially when it’s working! Aside from those four threes, every single point was scored in either the paint or at the free throw line. It was pretty much the same story on Saturday against Hamilton: 5-17 from beyond the arc, 53 points at either the free throw line or in the paint, and an L in the turnover battle. It may not be the change Wesleyan needs, but it couldn’t hurt to mix in a mid-range jumper from time to time. Or just to stop shooting threes altogether. Wesleyan is best when they go to the rim, and I think they need to do so this weekend if they want to bounce back from their 0-2 start.

 

9.) Conn College (8-4, 0-2)

Now I admit, Hamilton and Middlebury are two of the better teams in this league, but getting blown out by 16 in the NESCAC opener is not ideal. Wait, didn’t I just write that about Wesleyan? The answer is yes, but that’s because the two had pretty similar opening NESCAC weekends. Like Wesleyan, Conn lost to Hamilton and Middlebury this weekend. Unlike Wesleyan, however, they managed to keep the game against Middlebury pretty close. Conn also couldn’t hit water from a boat on Friday, shooting 5-25 from three, but they turned it around on Saturday against Middlebury, shooting 10-27, leading to a much higher scoring and closer game. There are two areas that I’m most impressed by in Conn. First, they are second in the league in assists, showing a willingness and ability to share the ball and play as a team. As a result, there is no single Camel that scores far more than the rest, but rather there is a 6-player cluster scoring between 9.7 and 13.7 PPG. Second, Conn is also ranked second in offensive rebounds, demonstrating their competitive desire and toughness. While this Camels roster is still flooded with youth, they are working very hard, which is going to pay off at some point. They had a tough opening weekend, but Conn is undoubtedly a playoff contender.

 

10.) Bowdoin (8-6, 0-2)

Like I foresaw, Bowdoin’s lack of depth is already proving to be somewhat of an issue. While David Reynolds ‘20 is proving to be a pretty significant contributor for the Polar Bears, it stems more from a necessity than a bonus. The starting lineup is struggling to support Jack Simonds ’19 in the scoring department, and as we saw on Friday, when teams shut down Simonds, they shut down the Polar Bears. Simonds was held to 11 points on 4-11 shooting against Tufts, and the other four starters combined for just 20 points. Had Reynolds not come off the bench and dropped 14, this could have been an even wider margin than the 23 point deficit the Polar Bears ended up with when the final buzzer sounded. On Saturday, the scoring was a little more evenly spread, but on their better offensive day of the weekend, Bowdoin scored just 59 points. This could stem from the -10 rebounding differential the Polar Bears ended up with. They just weren’t able to put together a complete game this weekend, which is why they ended up with an 0-2 conference record. It doesn’t Bowd (bode) well for the Polar bears this weekend as they host Williams, who is equally hungry for a win.

 

11.) Colby (7-6,0-2)

After beating the Bobcats on a buzzer beater in a non-conference contest back in December, the Mules threw up a goose egg this weekend and received two tallies in the L-column with losses to Bates and Tufts. In their two weekend games, Colby shot 18-69 from deep. 69 three-point attempts in two games! That’s ludicrous. Especially when you shoot just 26.1% from three on the weekend, it’s just bananas to imagine jacking up that many shots from beyond the arc. No wonder they only went to the foul line 15 times this weekend. Don’t let their 14-point loss to Tufts fool you either, this game was not close. Tufts was up by 33 at one point, but they got lazy and let Colby creep back a bit – this game was never in question though. Colby has the worst field goal percentage in the NESCAC, and that is not going to change if they don’t improve their shot selection. It could be a long year for the Mules unless they make some big changes offensively.

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