Month: October 2015

They Are Who We Thought They Were (Pretty Much): Stock Report 10/19

Trinity QB Sonny Puzzo and the Bantams barely escaped from Medford with a win. Robert LeBel/Trinity Athletics)
Trinity QB Sonny Puzzo ’18 and the Bantams barely escaped from Medford with a win. (Robert LeBel/Trinity Athletics)

We’re halfway through the season, and for the most part the league leaders are who we thought they were. Yet, there have been a few surprises this season that are keeping things interesting.

After last year’s 4-4 finish, and a 3-0 start this season, it was clear that Tufts had escaped the dungeons of the NESCAC that they had been trapped in for the past four years. This week they took on the Bantams, one of the two remaining undefeated teams in the league, and pushed them to the limit, eventually losing 34-27 in overtime. Up north, Bowdoin captured their first win of the season, beating the still winless Continentals 30-20, while Amherst took care of business as usual, granting Colby their fourth loss, 31-13. Bates’ struggles continued this week with a 24-16 loss to Wesleyan in a game where they led 9-7 late in the first second quarter, and Middlebury erupted in the second half for 27 straight unanswered points.

The biggest story of the day was Tufts threatening the NESCAC hierarchy. The Big Four that have dominated the lower six teams for the past few seasons may have to make room for a developing Tufts team that nearly knocked off one of the league’s top programs. Besides the Tufts/Trinity game, there were few surprises this week as far as results went, and a few players whose stock went up in our portfolio.

Stock Up

Quarterback Noah Nelson ’19 (Bowdoin)

After throwing for 134 yards and a touchdown last week against Tufts when starting QB Tim Drakeley ’17 went down with a concussion, Noah Nelson was named the starter for the Hamilton game two days later. On Saturday’s homecoming game against the Continentals, the first-year was 28-43 for 328 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions – a stat line that granted him co-NESCAC Player of the Week laurels. While one game cannot be the end all be all for quarterbacks in this league, Nelson had complete control of this offense that had been struggling to find some consistence this year. Following this game, it’s more than likely that he will get the start again next week, this time against one of the league’s best in the Trinity Bantams.

Tufts Jumbos

As alluded to earlier, the Jumbos came into this week against Trinity sitting pretty at 3-0, but their legitimacy was questioned given that their three wins came against Hamilton, Bates, and Bowdoin who are a combined 1-11. While Tufts was able to push the game into overtime, they did end up losing on a touchdown pass from Puzzo to Bryan Vieira ’18. Although they couldn’t knock off the undefeated, the way in which Tufts was able to respond after being down 21-13 in the 3rd quarter shows the fight that this team has. They are done finishing at the bottom of the league, and this week showed us that they are close to bridging the long-standing gap that has divided the NESCAC elite from the lower half of the league.

Quarterback Sonny Puzzo ’18 (Trinity)

We’ll stick with the theme of the quarterback for our third pick for stock up this week – Sonny Puzzo, who proved once again that he is the league’s best dual threat QB. He broke the 0-0 tie with a 57-yard rushing touchdown, while going 22-39 with four passing touchdowns and another rushing touchdown, leading his team passed a tenacious Jumbo squad. While ball security has been a problem for Puzzo the last two weeks, throwing two interceptions in both games, his ability to run in the open field along with his strong arm gives him a significant advantage against opposing defenses.

Stock Down

Bates’ Confidence

After going 4-4 last season, it’s almost unimaginable that the Bobcats would be in this bad of a position after four weeks of football. Though they tied with the Jumbos in the standings a year ago, Bates has found none of the magic in close games that Tufts has conjured up. Besides the Amherst game, in which Amherst was the heavy favorite, Bates has lost its other three games by a combined 11 points. The story was similar this week when, after leading Wesleyan 9-7 with a little over three minutes left in the first half, they let up 17 unanswered points, making their comeback too little too late down in Middletown. While some could point fingers and say the play of their QB Pat Dugan ’16 has not helped the team in the passing attack, turnovers have been a problem for the whole crew, and the offensive line has also struggled, giving up 11 sacks in four games.

Hamilton Quarterback Situation

Chase Rosenberg ’17 started the season with an electric 301 passing yards and three touchdowns in the 24-21 loss against Tufts, but since then has been on the steady decline. His low point came this Saturday against a Bowdoin defense that had been unable to stop anyone thus far this season. In his first two drives Rosenberg threw an interception, and was taken out of the game and replaced by Cole Freeman ’18, ending the day 2 -10 for two yards. Hamilton, who has played in close games as of late, now finds themselves in the midst of a renewed QB controversy, one that originally involved Rosenberg and the now-injured Brandon Tobin ’18. It’s been a gut-wrenching start to the season for Head Coach Dave Murray, who still is looking for his first win as the general of the Continentals team.

Trinity’s Defense

Going into Week 4, the Bantams had the No. 1-ranked defense, allowing zero offensive points over the course of three games. That all changed when they marched into Medford and found themselves in a 27-27 tie at the end of the fourth quarter. After Saturday, they still stop the defensive charts, allowing a stingy 7.8 points per game, but something was clearly out of sync against Tufts, especially in the fourth quarter where they gave up 14 straight points. While their stock lowered a little in our book, their defense is clearly still the best in the league, and it would be rash to look too much into this one game. The real test comes in Weeks 6-8, when Trinity runs the gauntlet at Middlebury, at Amherst and home against Wesleyan.

The Meat of the Matter: Weekend Preview 10/17

Williams and Middlebury meet a year after their game went into overtime. (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)
Williams and Middlebury meet a year after their game went into overtime. (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)

From top to bottom, this is one of the best slates of action for the NESCAC, even if it lacks the stereotypical headliner with Tufts and Trinity facing off in our Game of the Week. Four out of the five games have some level of uncertainty, with Amherst the only team that is a heavy favorite on the road at Colby.

A surprising 2-1 Williams team makes the trek up the spine of Vermont to meet a Middlebury team still licking their wounds, and Bates travels to Connecticut to play an inconsistent Wesleyan team. The final game finds Hamilton trying to snap their long losing streak on the road at Bowdoin.

Four to Watch

  1. Running Back Andrew Tichy ’19 and Quarterback Noah Nelson ’19 (Bowdoin): I’ll give you a little two for one action here. Both starters Tyler Grant ’17 and Tim Drakeley ’17 are not playing, and so two freshmen get the chance to play. Nelson looked sharp in the second half against Tufts, albeit once the game was already over for all intents and purposes. He is a Maine native, and I’m sure he will have plenty of friends and family there for his first career start. Tichy will be asked to carry a heavy load, and he could get beat up in this one. Even though they have freshman starting at two skill positions, Bowdoin has to keep the entire playbook open and not hold back on play-calling, or else they will be too predictable against Hamilton.
  2. Running Back Noah Sorrento ’19 (Williams): Let’s continue the theme of having young skill players in the limelight. Sorrento is steadily taking more and more carries for the Ephs, but he has not had any more success running the ball than his compatriots. He is averaging 3.5 yards per carry, and he had just 27 yards on 10 carries last week. Williams needs to have some semblance of a running game against Middlebury. If the Panthers know that a pass is coming almost every time, the Ephs will stall out. Sorrento got his real introduction to college football in Week 2 when he was stuffed at the goal line by a Trinity linebacker on 4th down. He is hoping things go better this week.
  3. Middle Linebacker Mark Upton ’17 (Bates): The statistics for Upton have been steady but unremarkable so far: 20 tackles (3.5 TFL) and a forced fumble. That is well off the pace of last year’s gaudy numbers. The Bobcats are going to need a bigger game from Upton than just solid if they want to pull of the upset against Wesleyan. The Cardinals are going to try run right at Bates, and Upton will have to consistently makes plays. Then when Wesleyan does pass, Upton has to make sure to keep one eye on the QB, whether that’s starter Gernald Hawkins ’18 or Mark Piccirillo ’19.
  4. Tight End Trevor Miletich ’16 (Middlebury): The Panthers might have difficulty throwing against an Eph secondary that is the strength of the defense, but a place where Middlebury has an advantage is over the middle of the field with Miletich. Though he isn’t as skilled as some of Middlebury tight ends of past years, he is probably the fastest tight end in the league, and it is tough for linebackers to stay with him. Matt Milano ’16 needs to find Miletich early to take the pressure off of the outside receivers.

Game Previews

Bates (0-3) at Wesleyan (2-1): 1:00 PM

The poor Bobcats have been snake-bitten the last two weeks, and now they have to go on the road to Wesleyan as they try to turn their season around. The defense has performed well besides the opener against Amherst, and the offense looked better last week, but this is a young team that is not doing the little things that allows them to win close games. Some of the decisions by the coaching staff haven’t helped either.

The underlying statistics for Wesleyan suggest a team better than the one that has needed fourth quarter touchdowns to overcome Hamilton and Colby. Even though Colby was able to run all over the Cardinals, I think the run defense reverts close to how they played in the first two weeks. The athletes for Wesleyan are too much.

Prediction: Wesleyan over Bates 17-6

Amherst (3-0) at Colby (0-3): 1:00 PM

Before Colby’s almost win at Wesleyan, this had blowout written all over it. Now… it would still take a lot for the Mules to pull the upset, but they at least made the Jeffs have to pay a little more attention this week. There is talent in Waterville, and once they get past the Jeffs, the Mules will improve. As noted before, Gabe Harrington ’17 has not seen any improvement from last season, and at some point if he doesn’t improve, the Mules have to explore other options. He has five interceptions against no touchdowns. He is a better QB than he has shown so far, but he has to perform soon.

The young Colby secondary will have its hands full with Jackson McGonagle ’16 and the rest of the Amherst wide receivers.There is no reason to expect the Amherst defense to experience any drop off from their play in the first three games. Harrington will find himself on his butt a lot in this one. So long as all the Amherst players find their way to Waterville, the Jeffs are going to stay perfect.

Prediction: Amherst over Colby 38-10

Williams (2-1) at Middlebury (2-1): 1:30 PM

Middlebury’s overtime victory a year ago ended up sending these two in opposite directions for the rest of the season. Now the Ephs come in looking like a better team than they were last year. The ball will be thrown constantly by both teams, and this game might last so long that the sun is setting when all is said and done. Austin Lommen ’16 is arguably more important to his team’s performance than Matt Milano ’16. These are the two best throwing QB’s in the league, but both secondaries will make plays too.

Williams needed a lot to go right in order to escape with the victory over Bates, and their lack of a running game is going to make them easy to defend for the Panthers. It’s close for a while, but Milano will make enough throws to lead Middlebury to the victory.

Prediction: Middlebury over Williams 26-10

Hamilton (0-3) at Bowdoin (0-3): 2:00 PM

This is the best chance yet for Hamilton to get Coach Dave Murray his first win, especially because Bowdoin is starting a freshman QB and running back as noted above. The health of Hamilton QB Chase Rosenberg ’17 is also in question because he did not finish the game against Trinity.

The Polar Bears have to avoid the slow starts that have forced them to throw the ball almost every down. The defense is going to have to take chances at points because they have shown an inability to get off the field consistently. At the end of the day, Murray gets his win and the Continentals get to celebrate all the way back to New York.

Prediction: Hamilton over Bowdoin 31-21

Last Week: 5-0
Season: 13-2

Jumbos Want to Sit at the Grownup Table: Game of the Week

Tufts fans have become some of the most raucous in the past two season. (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)
Tufts fans have become some of the most raucous in the past two season. (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)

Game Information: Saturday, October 17, 1:30 PM at Zimman Field in Medford, MA

Recent history for Tufts is summed up best in one number: 31. That of course is the number of games the Jumbos lost consecutively from September 25, 2010 to September 20, 2014. Since then the Jumbos ascent to respectability has been swift. Last week’s win made them 3-0 and brought their home winning streak to five games. However, the early schedule breaks perfectly for Tufts, and the Jumbos barely escaped their first two games. This week is an entirely different challenge for Tufts.

The last time that Tufts beat the Bantams was in 2007, a 16-10 win that was another meeting of 3-0 teams entering the day. Realistically, this is the biggest game for Tufts since then. A big home crowd will be on hand, but will the Jumbos be able to handle Trinity and make this a game?

Tufts X-Factor: Offensive Tackles Justin Roberts ’16 and Akene Farmer-Michos ’16

I’ll admit it, we don’t give the big guys enough love, especially on that offensive line. We just don’t have the access or time to truly know who the best offensive lineman are. With that being said, Farmer-Michos and Roberts are both long-time quality starters along the line. Tufts has had a reputation for being soft along both lines of scrimmage, and that has been the focus of Coach Jay Civetti in recruiting for many years. The Jumbos ran for 239 yards last week, but that was against a porous Bowdoin defense. The week before Bates shut them down completely with Tufts gaining 60 yards on 34 carries. Last year the Bantams had their way with Tuft’s offensive line allowing just 69 yards. Farmer-Michos, Roberts, and company face a tall task having to slow down defensive end Lyle Baker ’16 and the rest of the front seven.

Trinity X-Factor: Wide Receiver/Returner Darrien Myers ’17

At halftime Trinity had just a 7-2 lead against Hamilton. Then Myers broke off a 65 yard kickoff return to start the half, Trinity scored a touchdown four plays later, and the Bantams cruised. This was the second straight week that Myers delivered a back-breaking return. Against Williams, he returned a punt 68 yards in the second quarter to extend Trinity’s lead to 14-0. Beyond that, in the opener against Colby he had two receiving touchdowns, one for 27 yards to open the scoring and one for 43 yards to make it 21-0. He is a nightmare to bring down in the open field. He is the most likely target for any deep balls, and Tufts looked susceptible there against Bowdoin last week, allowing the Polar Bears to throw for 381 yards.

Speed Kills. Ergo Darrien Myers '17 kills. (Courtesy of Greg Sullivan/SevenStrong Photos)
Speed Kills. Ergo Darrien Myers ’17 kills. (Courtesy of Greg Sullivan/SevenStrong Photos)

3 More Questions

  1. How good is Sonny Puzzo ’17?

This is a question that will not be answered this week, but the Bantam faithful see Puzzo as the missing link to an undefeated season, and he has given them reason to believe in him so far. He came out guns blazing against Colby, but he has slowed down the past two weeks, including last week when he was just 16-30 for 272 yards and two interceptions, both of which came in the red zone. He is still averaging 8.8 yards per attempt, the highest average for starters in the league. His statistics from 2013 were solid but not unbelievable as a freshman. A reversal to his first week performance would make Trinity tough to stop, and Puzzo remains the single biggest variable in the Bantams’ performance.

2. Can Tufts create turnovers?

The long over-matched Tufts defense was unable to force turnovers or sacks for years, and even last year they ranked near the bottom of the league in those types of plays. Suddenly that has changed with the Jumbos second in the league in sacks and tied for second in total takeaways. Linebacker Tim Preston ’19 has two interceptions, and they have already forced four fumbles. The Bantams have turned the ball over right around a league average level, but they did have three turnovers last week. For Tufts, winning the turnover battle and getting a short field is key to help out the offense.

3. Will Tufts score on offense?

This is a question I can definitely answer in one word: yes. The Bantam defense has been great obviously, but they don’t destroy offenses quite to the length their scoreless through three games statistic would suggest. It took two goal line stands for Trinity to keep Williams from scoring a touchdown. Meanwhile Tufts has enough weapons to keep Trinity off balance. If I’m the Jumbos I’m testing the young linebacking core (all of Trinity’s linebackers are freshmen or sophomores) early and often in coverage with throws into the flat and quick slants. Mike Rando ’17 and Ben Berey ’17 should find holes underneath for Tufts.

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Everything Else

Trinity has not had the same dominant running attack as in years past, but Max Chipouras ’19 broke out last week for 123 yards on the ground and three touchdowns. The Jumbos have adjusted to not having linebacker Matt McCormack ’16 in the lineup, and one of the leading tacklers for Tufts a year ago is a question mark for this weekend.  His possible absence weakens a front seven that has to be able to stop Trinity on first and second down. Patrick Williams ’16 is the leader now of the linebackers, and he has the size to take on the Bantam offensive lineman. Containing Puzzo if he tries to run the ball is also important. In last year’s game, Trinity had 276 yards on the ground. Any number above 200 spells a Trinity victory.

On the other side of the ball, Alex Snyder ’17 is not going to find big plays in the passing game against Trinity. Their secondary is simply too good. They shut down the tall wide receivers for Williams, and they will likely have similar success with Jack Cooleen ’16. Sustaining drives against Trinity is obviously hard. Look, the talent on the Trinity defense is top of the line, but they rely on a lot of young players. We have not seen yet how they will respond if a team is able to move the ball and get points on the board. The Bantams have to continue to play assignment football and not get out of position against Tufts who is capable of pulling a wrinkle or two out of the playbook.

The Bantams have the edge on special teams because of the return skills of Myers. Eric Sachse ’19 has shored up the kicking game, a recurring Achilles heel the last few years for Trinity. Tufts almost lost to Bates because of their kicking game problems, especially long-snapping issues.

At the end of the day, is Tufts a significantly different team than they were last year? No, I don’t think so. Not just that, but Trinity is better than they were last year. At least I think so. Maybe it’s close for a while, but unless Trinity commits a boatload of turnovers, the Bantams pull this one out without too much trouble.

Prediction: Trinity over Tufts 24-6

Bantams Cling to the Top: Power Rankings 10/14

Between the marching band and the bursting fall foliage, there were plenty of distractions at the Williams-Bates game. (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)
Between the marching band and the bursting fall foliage, there were plenty of distractions at the Williams-Bates game. (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)

Amherst got the most impressive win of the season on Saturday over Middlebury, but that doesn’t change the top of the rankings. Things played out generally as expected, especially down the bottom half of this list. Therefore there isn’t a lot of movement this week.

  1. Trinity (3-0; Last Week: 1)

Still yet to let up a point on defense, the Bantams steam rolled past the Hamilton Continentals for a 29-4 win. Trinity has dominated all season, making easy work of their opponents so far. Safety Paul McCarthy ’16 had yet another pick to make it four for the season, a year after seeing the field for only short spurts. I’m not expecting much to change this week, even against undefeated Tufts.

  1. Amherst (3-0; Last Week: 3)

Why not put Amherst first, given that they haven’t lost in forever, it seems? Well, last year doesn’t matter, and I think Trinity has been the most impressive team. Amherst proved they belong at 1b) in the polls as they put a beating on Middlebury. The Amherst defense held Middlebury to 21 net rushing yards and sacked Matt Milano ’16 five times for a total loss of 40 yards. Amherst should stroll to 4-0 as they take on Colby on Saturday. This team could very well end being better than last year’s edition.

  1. Middlebury (2-1): (Last Week: 2)

It was just a matter of time before this team got knocked down given their issues. A lackluster rushing game plagued them vs. Amherst, just as it has all season. The difference was that the Jeffs closed down the passing game the further the game went along. One indication of how bad the Panthers have been running the ball is that they have only four first downs from running the ball, compared to 41 first downs through the air. An intriguing game against Williams looms, a matchup that went to overtime last year.

  1. Wesleyan (2-1; Last Week: 4)

Wesleyan kept its fans on their feet (and caused them to grow some gray hairs) as they pulled off a 24-21 win over Colby. Gernald Hawkins ’18 drove down the field from the Wesleyan 34-yard line with four minutes to play, eventually connecting with Devon Carrillo ’16 for a game winning 35-yard touchdown pass. That the running defense all of a sudden was porous raised plenty of eyebrows. The young Cardinals are still figuring out how to put that talent to good use. Wesleyan takes on Bates next week, which could be close given that the average margin of victory in the Cardinals’ three games so far is just 3.3 points.

  1. Williams (2-1; Last Week: 5)

After an excruciating loss to Trinity in Week 2, the Ephs were able to put up enough points to beat Bates 16-14. They weren’t to get much going on the ground, but Austin Lommen ’16 threw for 309 yards, albeit with two interceptions. The Ephs ran the ball 26 times in order to milk up the clock, but were largely ineffective. More balance will be needed to keep the aggressive Middlebury defense at bay.

  1. Tufts (3-0; Last Week 6)

Yes they are undefeated, but the combined records for the teams they have beaten is 0-9 (Bowdoin, Bates and Hamilton). They looked much stronger against Bowdoin, but they still barely escaped from the Bobcats and Continentals. This week will test how close the Jumbos are to competing on both sides of the line of scrimmage against an elite team. From here on out, the Jumbos will have a tough schedule as they face Trinity, Williams, Amherst, Colby and Middlebury. The Jumbos have a lot to prove.

  1. Bates (0-3; Last Week: 7)

Bates picked up 232 rushing yards of a total 298 yards and averaged 4.1 yards per carry in a heartbreaking loss to Williams. For the first time, the rushing attack gained some traction with quarterback Patrick Dugan ’16 leading the way with 74 yards. With six fumbles (two lost) on the day, the Bobcats have shown they can run, they just need to hang on to the damn football. It isn’t often that Bates loses the time of possession battle by 8:56 like they did against Williams. The schedule doesn’t get easier as the Bobcats go on the road at Wesleyan in Week 4.

  1. Hamilton (0-3; Last week: 8)

It is hard for a team to move up in the power rankings when they face off against Trinity, but the Continentals do deserve credit for scoring on the Bantams, even if it wasn’t on offense. Look for this to be Hamilton’s final week in the eight spot. They take on Bowdoin this week and are looking for their first win in over three years. This is a team that is going to come out very hungry, sensing a beatable and beaten-down Bowdoin squad.

  1. Colby (0-3; Last Week: 9)

The Mules finally showed some fight Saturday against Wesleyan as they lost on a late fourth quarter touchdown. The continued struggles of quarterback Gabe Harrington ’17 are becoming harder and harder to ignore. In all three games he has averaged less than 4.0 yards per attempt and has zero passing touchdowns with five interceptions. Even with the running game having success against Wesleyan, he went 15-34. The hard stretch to open the season concludes against Amherst.

  1. Bowdoin (0-3; Last Week: 10)

The Polar Bears trailed the whole game, and ended up losing 43-24 against Tufts. Their inability to run the ball and stop the run hurt them again. The old adage that football games are won at the line of scrimmage is true in the NESCAC. Coach JB Wells is still looking for his first win, and as the weeks go by, the possibility that it won’t come until 2016 is becoming more and more distinct.

Nick DiBenedetto is a Genius: Fantasy Report Week 3

Our season long vanity project rolls on into week three with ever improving results. Emerging studs like Jack Hickey ’19 are rapidly getting snagged off of the waiver wire, but there is still plenty of talent to be mined going forward. Let’s look at the results.

Matchup 1: Joe over Adam 114-112

Joe Adam
Pos. Player Pts Pos. Player Pts
QB Matt Milano 14 QB Austin Lommen 17
QB Alex Snyder 11 QB Reece Foy 21
RB Kenny Adinkra 13 RB Jack Hickey 11
RB LaShawn Ware 9 RB Chance Brady 30
WR Ryan Rizzo -1 WR Pat Donahoe 6
WR Devon Carrillo 27 WR Mike Rando 5
TE Bryan Porter 2 TE Alex Way 6
FLEX Jabari Hurdle-Price 26 FLEX Shaun Carroll 0
FLEX Conrado Banky 7 FLEX Jackson McGonagle 10
D/ST Middlebury 5 D/ST Wesleyan 1
K Charlie Wall 6 K Ike Fuchs 5
BE Lou Stevens 2   BE Gernald Hawkins 19
BE Pat Dugan 10   BE Ryder Arsenault 0
BE Tyler Grant 0   BE Nick Kelly 4
119 112

Feeling like George Bush after the 2000 election because of how close this one was. Jabari Hurdle-Price ’17 and Chance Brady ’17 basically cancelled each other it with their big days. So Devon Carrillo ’16, who I have long had a definite soft spot for, made the difference because of his receiving ability this week. Adam should be most upset about Shaun Carroll ’16 not getting any points because he is usually good for at least a couple running the ball. More than anything, our high scores tell me that week by week we are getting a handle on the NESCAC fantasy landscape.

Matchup 2: Nick over Carson 86-70

Carson Nick
Pos. Player Pts Pos. Player Pts
QB Sonny Puzzo 9 QB Gabe Harrington 8
QB Jared Lebowitz 0 QB Tim Drakeley 13
RB Frank Williams 11 RB Diego Meritus 6
RB Nick Gaynor 1 RB Connor Harris 5
WR Matt Minno 13 WR Darrien Myers 7
WR Mark Riley 6 WR Dan Barone 19
TE Rob Thoma 5 TE Trevor MIletich 4
FLEX Ian Dugger 8 FLEX Ben Kurtz 0
FLEX Jack Cooleen 2 FLEX Jaylen Berry 7
D/ST Amherst 14 D/ST Trinity 12
K Charlie Gordon 1 K Eric Sachse 5
BE Neil O’Connor 2 BE Matt Hirshman 2
BE LaDarius Drew 0 BE Alex Berluti 0
BE Jon Hurvitz 1 BE Raheem Jackson 0
70 86

With each passing week, newcomer Nick DiBenedetto is looking smarter and smarter. His win this week moves him to 3-0, and he did so in part because of strong production from the Bowdoin duo of QB Tim Drakeley ’17 and receiver Dan Barone ’16. The key for him is that every guy is getting a little bit of production, allowing him to win close matchups. For Carson, his first pick LaDarius Drew ’15 is not healthy and didn’t play this weekend. Priority number one for him is finding a second quarterback since Jake Lebowitz ’18 is not seeing the field enough. Carson will likely also try to get Trinity running back Max Chipouras ’19 off of waivers in order to get his first win.

Standings

Nick: 3-0
Joe: 2-1
Adam: 1-2
Carson: 0-3

Monday Musings Part Two: Everyone Else


Things are good in Medford these days. The Jumbos are 3-0. (Photos Courtesy of Alonso Nichols/Tufts University)

AL: Alright, enough about that Amherst-Middlebury game as there was plenty of other football played. The one score that caught my eye was Wesleyan sneaking by Colby 24-21. For the second straight week the Cardinals needed a late touchdown to take the lead, and both weeks it was Devon Carrillo ’16 who was responsible for it.

JM: So a couple of thoughts from me about this result. One, I think Colby played pissed off, especially Jabari Hurdle-Price ’17. Two, either Wesleyan isn’t as good as we thought, or, and sorry to keep dragging it back to Middlebury, the Panthers aren’t as good as we thought. The Cards have now played close game’s with teams we thought would be elite and teams we thought would be mediocre. I think it’s mostly a situation of a young team in Wesleyan with a lot of talent going through growing pains, and they’ll get better as the season goes on. My one other observation, and you just brought this up, Devon Carrillo is a beast. In Weeks 1 and 2 it was rushing the ball. This week he finally caught some passes. One way or another he’s going to hurt you. Like this:

AL: Get this: Wesleyan came in allowing just 13.0 YPG on the ground, and Hurdle-Price went for 19 yards on his first carry on his way to 202 for the day. This is an encouraging effort for Colby. Obviously they are 0-3 against Trinity, Middlebury and Wesleyan, but they did look competitive. That and then you have to look at the standings and see your CBB mates Bowdoin and Bates sitting there at 0-3 too.

JM: And it was another tough one for your Bowdoin Polar Bears, losing a whopping 43-24. What’s going on, Al?

AL: Ugghh, the defense has simply not shown up, especially in the first half of the past two games. The Jumbos had 27 points in the first half, and Chance Brady ’17 was able to do basically whatever he wanted. I thought it was going to be different under new coach JB Wells, but these things take time. Real story is Tufts moving to 3-0 I think.

JM: I’m with you, Al. Could Tufts be the real deal? They barely snuck by Hamilton and Bates, but in a way that’s a good thing. The Jumbos actually believe they can win. And that’s the kind of attitude they’re going to need when they go to play Trinity this weekend. This will either be Tufts’ announcement to the league that they’re a contender, or it will affirm our fears that there are really only four teams competing every year for the title.

AL: I’m going to say the Jumbos are still a year away, but Saturday will tell us, obviously. Bowdoin was playing without Tyler Grant ’17, and the Polar Bears picked off Alex Snyder ’17 twice, so you can’t say it was all roses for Tufts. Elsewhere, on Friday I said that I was high on the Ephs because of Austin Lommen ’16, and they leaned on him heavily throwing the ball 47 times in the Ephs’ win. Still, Bates had a lot of chances to win this game, but they haven’t been able to win the close games.

QB Austin Lommen '16 carried the Ephs' offense on his right shoulder on Saturday. (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)
QB Austin Lommen ’16 carried the Ephs’ offense on his right shoulder on Saturday. (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)

JM: No, and I think part of that is that their offense is one-dimensional. It just doesn’t work in football these days. The athletes on the other side of the ball are too good and too smart. There’s so much film that you aren’t really surprising opposing defenses with that option game.

AL: Patrick Dugan ’16 was 1-14 throwing the ball! Williams has a good secondary, but that is BAD. Bates has always leaned on the run, but they usually are able to get more of a passing game going. Finally, the game we haven’t talked about is Trinity vs. Hamilton. What did you think of that one?

JM: Really just confirmed what we already knew. Trinity’s defense is going to shut down bad teams. While Hamilton had a great showing in Week 1, and nearly upset Wesleyan in Week 2, I think that they’re closer to the offense we’ve seen the last two weeks than the one we saw in Week 1. More than anything, Trinity just has a chip on its shoulder after losing three straight to end 2014. If running back Max Chipouras ’19 is for real, then this team becomes terrifying to face.

AL: This score would have been more lopsided if Colby Jones ’19 (another impact freshman who also returned a blocked extra point for two points) hadn’t intercepted two Sonny Puzzo ’17 throws inside of the Hamilton 20-yard line. I’m a little more optimistic about the Hamilton offense just because I respect the Trinity defense so much. With that being said, Puzzo is coming back to earth.I have my worries about when Triniy has to face a top-four defense.

Jeff Devanney's defense has yet to allow a point through three games. That's 180 minutes of football. (Courtesy of Robert LeBel)
Jeff Devanney’s defense has yet to allow a point through three games. That’s 180 minutes of football. (Courtesy of Robert LeBel)

JM: I still feel good about Puzzo. He didn’t run much last week, so I don’t know what that’s about. But we saw in person with Foy against Middlebury how the threat of a quarterback taking off and running is a huge weapon. And Puzzo still put up good yardage against Hamilton. Trinity’s calling card is always going to be defense as long as Jeff Devanney is the coach, and that’s how they’re going to win.

AL: I mean the Trinity defense still hasn’t been scored on. Glancing at the standings, clear demarcation with six teams either 3-0 or 2-1 and then four 0-3 teams. With the exception of Wesleyan, I feel like I have a good handle on teams at this point.

JM: Agreed, and things are starting to separate, as you mentioned. Okay, Adam, any last takes on Week 3 in the NESCAC?

AL: Just want to reiterate how much I enjoyed watching the game at Amherst. And that we went 5-0 on picks this week. Definitely want to mention that.

JM: I feel pretty confident in saying that no one else has watched as much NESCAC football as we have this season, Adam. It’s paying off with the picks.

Monday Musings Part One: Amherst Tops Middlebury

RB Kenny Adinkra '16 and QB Reece Foy '18 cordially congratulate one another after an Adinkra rush for a TD on Saturday just before halftime. (Photo by Joe MacDonald)
RB Kenny Adinkra ’16 and QB Reece Foy ’18 cordially congratulate one another after an Adinkra rush for a TD on Saturday just before halftime. (Photo by Joe MacDonald)

Editors’ Note: In lieu of the usual Stock Report, we (Joe and Adam) wanted to do something a little different since we were at the Middlebury-Amherst game this weekend. Our thoughts on all the other games are coming this afternoon.

AL: Well Joey, another weekend down. Plenty to talk about, but we were both at the Amherst vs. Middlebury game, so tackle that game first?

JM: Yes, lots to take away. But first, just have to say that we had an awesome time watching the game on Saturday, even if it was tough to watch as a Middlebury fan. We got to talk to a lot of great parents on either side, and it reminded me what the NESCAC is all about. Great athletics, great academics, and a fun family atmosphere. I do wish that other schools could replicate the tailgating experience that those Amherst parents provide, though. Anyways, on to the game. There was less than we hoped for in terms of drama, but it was every bit as significant as we had expected. What are your takeaways from the game?

AL: First, the game was closer than the 24-7 score indicates. You could feel Amherst start to outlast the Panthers as the game went along. Middlebury didn’t have any answers on offense and their defense was on the field for way too long.

JM: The defense was exhausted, you’re absolutely right. That’s becoming an issue for the Panthers, as they’re averaging the worst TOP in the league (just 23:03 per game) – a big part of that is their inability to run the football. And on offense QB Matt Milano ’16 got his butt kicked. He was sacked five times and knocked down a few more. It was all around a dominant performance for the Amherst defense.

AL: Amherst ran 88 plays, and they ran the ball 49 times. That is going to wear a defense out, and that final Jack Hickey ’19 touchdown was a product of the defense having nothing left. What broke Middlebury was when Jack Drew ’16 ripped the ball out on the punt return and Amherst recovered at the one-yard line.

WR Jackson McGonagle '16 pulled down this Reece Foy '18 lob and just got a toe inside the end zone for a touchdown. (Photo by Joe MacDonald)
WR Jackson McGonagle ’16 pulled down this Reece Foy ’18 lob and just got a toe inside the end zone for a touchdown. (Photo by Joe MacDonald)

JM: What did Amherst do defensively that was so confusing for the Panthers offense?

AL: That 3-4 defense reminds me of the Pittsburgh Steelers in that their blitz packages are very diverse. The offensive line has no idea who is going to come and who is dropping into coverage.

JM: Exactly. The defensive lineman did a great job of occupying blockers and giving the linebackers chances to make plays. Middlebury even went with two tight ends a few times. Combine the lack of a threatening running game with Amherst’s ability to get pressure with three or four guys and you’ve got trouble. In the passing game Middlebury didn’t look bad, and were within a dropped pass of having a 14-3 lead in the first half.

After emerging as a weapon on the outside, WR Ian Riley '16 sat out Saturday's game with a lower body injury suffered in practice last week.
After emerging as a weapon on the outside, WR Ian Riley ’16 sat out Saturday’s game with a lower body injury suffered in practice last week. (Photo by Joe MacDonald)

The receiving corps was thin with Ian Riley ’16 out. Milano didn’t have anyone to throw to besides WR Matt Minno ’16 and TE Trevor Miletich ’16, and they need to get their other weapons involved more. Ryan Rizzo ’17 was fazed out of the game plan a bit this week, which meant they had to rely heavily on the two senior pass catchers mentioned above.

AL:  Moving the ball against the Jeffs is already hard enough, and when you can’t run the ball, forget about it. Who on that Jeff defense stood out?

JM: For me it was all about Evan Boynton ’17. He made some huge plays and obviously had the two sacks and an interception. He’s tops on the Amherst team in tackles right now. For a guy that wasn’t really on my radar before the season began, I think he’s now on the shortlist for DPOY.

AL: He was Defensive Player of the Week, so he is getting some recognition. I heard one fan describe him as a missile when he blitzes, and that’s pretty accurate. He and fellow middle linebacker, Thomas Kleyn ’16, are from the same high school, Concord-Carlisle. The thing about Amherst is they rotate guys in and out like it’s nothing.

JM: I think ultimately what Saturday showed was that Middlebury can’t match Amherst’s depth, and I doubt anyone else in the NESCAC can, either. Right now Amherst’s combination of talent, size, speed and depth is what makes them the favorite.

AL: That is all very true, and the fact that they have settled on Reece Foy ’18 is what puts them over the top for me. He is able to extend plays, and his deep ball is one of the best in the league. Not to mention that he usually has good time behind that offensive line.

The LJ's went into halftime up 14-7 and focused on extending that lead. (Photo by Joe MacDonald)
The LJ’s went into halftime up 14-7 and focused on extending that lead. (Photo by Joe MacDonald)

JM: Yeah, really impressed by Foy. I still have Milano as the league’s top QB, this game aside. That being said, with two more years to develop and grow, I expect we’ll be seeing Foy on some All-NESCAC lists in the future, if not this season. Speaking of quarterbacks, we didn’t see Jared Lebowitz ’18 until the final Middlebury drive of the game, despite the offense’s struggles to move the football. Why do you think that was?

AL: I think Head Coach Bob Ritter believed that at some point Milano would be able to get things moving. He might not have trusted Lebowitz at this point of the season. It’s tough because Lebowitz certainly offers a different wrinkle.

JM: I think you’re partially right. I believe that Ritter has confidence in both of his quarterbacks, but I also think that he is very wary of sparking any kind of controversy. If you put Lebowitz in that game in the second quarter, is there a chance that he carries some magic with him and the Panthers get the victory? Sure. But if you put him in and he doesn’t succeed right away, now you’ve got two quarterbacks without confidence in themselves coming out of that game. I think it was the right move to stick with Milano.

Come back later today for our discussion on the rest of the games around the NESCAC from this past weekend…

More than the Main Course: Weekend Preview 10/9

 

The Bantams hope to keep their sparkling record and scoreless streak alive. (Courtesy of Robert LeBel)
The Bantams hope to keep their sparkling record and scoreless streak alive. (Courtesy of Robert LeBel)

Amherst and Middlebury is the main attraction this weekend, and Joe broke that down in detail yesterday, but the other four games still offer plenty to chew on. Trinity and Wesleyan are heavy home favorites against Hamilton and Colby respectively, but those games are still important measuring sticks. Bowdoin has beaten Tufts five straight times, and it would certainly behoove the Polar Bears to extend that streak to six in order to get their first win of the year. Bates and Williams meet in Western Massachusetts as both teams are in need of a win.

Four to Watch

1. Defensive End Zach Thomas ’18 (Tufts):

Zach Thomas
Tufts Athletics

Last year Thomas saw the field mostly as a kicker filling in for the injured Willie Holmquist ’16, and he has played great through two games at DE after playing there sparingly in 2014. He had 2.5 sacks against Bates, two of which came on third down to end Bates’ drives. Bowdoin allowed six sacks last week (admittedly Amherst is a different animal than most), and Thomas will get plenty of chances to rush the QB if Tufts gets up early. Along with Shane Thomas ’17 (no relation), the sophomore is part of a young group who are emerging for Tufts as difference makers, something that the Jumbos have lacked for a long time.

Shane Thomas '17 (56) is emerging as a force, leading the Jumbos in tackles. (Courtesy of Josh Kuckens/Bates College)
LB Shane Thomas ’17 (56) is emerging as a force and nice complement to DE Zach, leading the Jumbos in tackles. (Courtesy of Josh Kuckens/Bates College)

2. Wide Receiver Colin Brown ’16 (Williams):

Colin Brown
Williams Athletics

Brown and fellow wide out Darrias Sime ’16 probably spent much of the week drooling at the tape of Jack Cooleen ’16 ripping up the Bates secondary. Brown is 6’5″, but he was shut down last week against Trinity. A year ago he had by far his best game of the season against Bates hauling in eight catches for 96 yards. The young Bates secondary has to figure some way of forcing Brown and Sime to be physical, not just when the ball is in the air but also at the line of scrimmage. Unfortunately, that lies outside of how Bates usually plays, meaning that Brown should get a lot of clean breaks off of the line. Once he gets moving, he is much more difficult to stop.

3. Running Back Nick Gaynor ’17 (Trinity):

Nick Gaynor
Trinity Athletics

Hats off to Gaynor who has transitioned to running back almost as smoothly as one could hope. Given the long history of Trinity backs, nobody expected the Bantams to have to turn to a wide receiver. He has answered the call averaging 4.5 yards per carry so far. He still retains some of his receiver instincts to cut outside and only try to run through arm tackles, but that is also playing to his strengths as a shifty runner. The one concern for Gaynor is his three fumbles so far. Those are the only turnovers that Trinity has had all year. Freshman Max Chipouras ’19 could take carries away from Gaynor as the year goes along, but for now Gaynor is the signature back for the Bantams.

4. Defensive Lineman Tyler Hudson ’19 (Hamilton):

4383.jpg
Hamilton Athletics

The Continental defense has looked much better in 2015, and Hudson has been a stud for them already as a freshman. He was everywhere against Tufts with 4.5 TFLs, and he proved that it wasn’t a fluke against Wesleyan with a sack and pass batted down. His 5.5 TFL are the most in the league. Hudson is from Whitesboro, New York which is a 15-minute drive away from Hamilton. Coach Dave Murray is a longtime coach and recruiter in Central New York, and Hudson is exactly the type of football player that Murray is trying to convince to stay close to home. Already……….

Game Previews

Bowdoin (0-2) at Tufts (2-0): Medford, Massachusetts, 1:00 PM

These two met last year with the same records, and the result was Bowdoin’s first win of the year. The Jumbos have found a way to take that magic oil that helped them win all four home games on the road the first two weeks, eeking out an overtime win and a one-point win. They are still not a great football team, but they are coming close to good and that’s enough to beat the lower half of the league. Chance Brady ’17 might not play because of a concussion, but Dom Borelli ’19 has looked good as the backup running back so far.

Bowdoin has looked pretty listless in their first two games. QB Tim Drakeley ’17 has thrown the ball well, but the Polar Bears have been forced to get away from running the ball with Tyler Grant ’17 because they have fallen behind so quickly. The defense, especially that secondary, has to play better as a unit. Until Bowdoin wins a game, you have to pick against them.

Prediction: Tufts over Bowdoin 19-13

Hamilton (0-2) at Trinity (2-0): Hartford, Connecticut. 1:00 PM

The easy opening schedule for Trinity continues, though the Bantams beat Hamilton by just 12 points last year. That game was at Hamilton, and the Bantams don’t have to worry about a long bus ride this year. Sonny Puzzo ’18 is playing great, attacking the defense downfield and not making any mistakes.

Hamilton is going to struggle unless Trinity suddenly catches the turnover bug. They don’t have the athletes to match up with Trinity in the open field, and they can’t sell out against the run like they did against Wesleyan. Charles Ensley ’17 and Pat Donahoe ’16 are underrated receivers, but even they will have trouble against the Trinity secondary. The scoreless streak ends, but the Bantams still cruise.

Prediction: Trinity over Hamilton 28-6

Bates (0-2) at Williams (1-1): Williamstown, Massachusetts. 1:00 PM

QB Austin Lommen '16 and the Ephs could find no room to operate against the Bantams last weekend. (Courtesy of Robert LeBel)
QB Austin Lommen ’16 and the Ephs could find no room to operate against the Bantams last weekend. (Courtesy of Robert LeBel)

On the surface this is the same Williams team we saw last year: an easy win over Bowdoin before a shutout loss to Trinity. However, I think the Ephs have more going for them this year. Much of that rests on the shoulders of Austin Lommen ’16, and despite subpar statistics from him last week, I think he bounces back against Bates. Mark Pomella ’16 is there as a change of pace quarterback, but the Ephs will win or lose because of Lommen. The running game has not improved much, and the Ephs can be made one-dimensional. That might not be a terrible thing against Bates.

Williams’ biggest worry is that their young defense wilts against the triple option, though the Bobcats haven’t been very successful moving the ball so far this year. Shaun Carroll’s ’16 statistics are inflated by one 80-yard run, and the Bobcats have not sustained enough drives. After their tough loss last week, this game is a test of the Bobcats leadership and resilience. Bottom line for me is I see the Williams offense capitalizing at points a week after Trinity gave them chances to make plays and the Ephs failed every time.

Prediction: Williams 27 – Bates 20

Colby (0-2) at Wesleyan (1-1): Middletown, Connecticut. 1:00 PM

Colby has struggled to run the ball and is going up against a Wesleyan team that suffocates teams when they run. Gabe Harrington ’17 might throw the ball 30 times in this game, and he needs receivers like Ryder Arsenault ’17 to get open much more consistently than they have. Last week against Middlebury the only success that Colby had in the passing game was a few go-up-and-get-’ems from young wideout Mark Snyder ’18.

If Wesleyan’s talent is going to coalesce into a very good football team, this is the week for them to do it. A big victory would give the team a huge boost in confidence. Justin Sanchez ’17 has been relatively quiet, and tomorrow would be a great time for him to intercept Harrington once or twice. The front seven has already proven that it is up to snuff with Shayne Kaminski ’18 and Jordan Stone ’17 helping to lead the way. The Mules don’t have the horses (bad pun intended) to hang for four quarters.

Prediction: Wesleyan 30 – Colby 10

Heavy Lies the Crown: Week 3 Game of the Week (You Know Which Game)

Slot receiver Ryan Rizzo '17 snags a Jared Lebowitz '18 pass with one-hand for a score on Saturday, Oct. 3 vs. Colby.
Slot receiver Ryan Rizzo ’17 snags a Jared Lebowitz ’18 pass with one-hand for a score on Saturday, Oct. 3 vs. Colby. (Photo by Joe MacDonald)

Game Information: Saturday, Oct. 10, 2:00 PM at Pratt Field in Amherst, MA

The Trinity Bantams have been the most impressive team of the young 2015 season. At 2-0, the Bants have outscored their opponents 58-0. The return of 2013 NESCAC Rookie of the Year Sonny Puzzo ’18 to the starting lineup has sparked the Bantams’ offense. Nick Gaynor ’17, a converted wide receiver, is rushing for over 4.0 yards per carry. And the defense has, of course, been phenomenal.

Sorry, but no one cares what happens in Hartford this Saturday.

All eyes will be trained on Amherst, MA, where the preseason No. 1 Middlebury Panthers will take on the defending NESCAC Champion Amherst Lord Jeffs. Amherst is riding a 13-game winning streak dating back to 2013, and in the past couple of years have embarrassed the Panthers. In 2013 the LJs made D3Football.com All-New England QB McCallum Foote ’14 look silly, picking him off FIVE times. Last year Amherst completely shut down Matt Milano ’16 and Co., allowing nary a point.

None of that matters now, though. 2015 is the only thing that counts, and so far this season the Lord Jeffs have looked utterly dominant against a pair of Maine colleges. The play of newly-minted starting QB Reece Foy ’18 has sparked the Amherst offense, making a team that went 8-0 a year ago even more scary.

On the other side, the Panthers shook off the cob webs to sneak away with a win at Wesleyan in Week 1, but they looked every bit the part of NESCAC favorite in trouncing Colby 28-9 a week ago. That victory was not without flaws, as Milano threw two interceptions, but it was the defense that really impressed. The starting defense was impregnable, and Colby managed just a garbage time rushing TD against the freshman defense.

So, what to expect this Saturday? Let’s lay it all out:

Screen shot 2015-10-06 at 2.31.15 PMMiddlebury X-factors: QB Jared Lebowitz ’18 and WR Matt Minno ’16

Let me make this very clear: There is no quarterback controversy in Middlebury. Milano is the starter and the team’s undisputed leader on offense. BUT, that doesn’t mean that Lebowitz can’t contribute. A rushing threat at QB is something that the Panthers haven’t had since the graduation of Donnie McKillop ’11, and he wasn’t really much of a runner himself. Milano is a prototypical pocket passer, and there’s nothing wrong with that, especially since he’s made it clear that he is the league’s best quarterback by playing that way. That being said, Lebowitz’s stock is trending upwards. His athleticism can’t be denied and the Panthers will need to pull out all the stops against a stout Amherst defense. The UNLV-transfer saw one series in Week 1, but got a handful of series behind center in Week 2 due in part to an injury to Milano. This, I think, is the week where we see Lebowitz really make an impact, and some of that will come in two-QB situations. Last week we saw Lebowitz line up out wide as a receiver and almost catch a touchdown pass. Expect to see that formation, or some variation thereof, a few times, as well some speed option – something that Middlebury almost never does.

The other X-factor for Middlebury is senior receiver Matt Minno, who missed Week 2 with a shoulder injury. Ryan Rizzo ’17 might be the most  targeted receiver, and TE Trevor Miletich ’16 has emerged as a red zone threat, but Minno is, without a doubt, the most dangerous receiver on the field in blue and white every week. He combines size, speed, great route running and sure hands to terrorize defenses. Will he be 100 percent healthy on Saturday? If so, even the LJs can’t defend all of the Panthers’ weapons. If not, or if that injury is re-aggravated, Middlebury will be hard-pressed to move the football on Amherst.

Amherst X-factors: The Defensive Line

It all starts with the line, doesn’t it? Even more so when on most plays the defense will be dropping seven and relying on the front four to get pressure. The offensive line may be the lone chink in the Panthers’ armor, which would account for some of the team’s difficulties running the football. Middlebury had a tough time with the Colby D-line last Saturday, and while I believe Ryan Ruiz ’16 to be a star for the Mules, the Panthers should have been better at containing the rest of the Colby’s front four. Pressure on the QB is always the best way to slow down a passing offense, and Amherst is tied for first with eight sacks on the year even though the Jeffs played the triple option Bates Bobcats opening weekend. Either the Middlebury O-line steps up or Paul Johnson ’17 and his linemates will be setting up shop in the Middlebury backfield.

RB Kenny Adinkra '16 never goes down from the first hit. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)
RB Kenny Adinkra ’16 never goes down from the first hit. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

Prediction: Amherst 14 – Middlebury 13

I’m probably going to get some flack around campus today and tomorrow for this one, and I truly hope I’m wrong. Even though prior to the season we went with Middlebury over Amherst in this one, which accounted for Amherst’s only loss, I’ve officially flip flopped. But barely, as I think a blocked PAT – that’s right – will be the difference. Both teams are elite, and either squad dropping more than two games this season would be a monumental surprise. A turnover either way could also be the deciding factor.

Beyond the X-factors already talked about, there are more questions about this week’s matchup. Can Middlebury run the football? And do they need to? Conventional wisdom says yes, but the Panthers have racked up around 100 yards per game (this is an estimate) in the screen game over the last two weeks. RB Diego Meritus ’19 had a 40-yard TD catch and run against Wesleyan, and WR Ian Riley ’16 caught a jet screen for a 10-yard TD against Colby. You can’t just hang off the Middlebury receivers, because Head Coach Bob Ritter will lean on the short-passing game. And if Amherst holds back it’s D-line to prevent the screen then Milano will have all day to pick the LJs’ secondary apart. The one-on-one battles along the line will be crucial for Amherst. If someone like Sam Caldwell ’16, the team’s leading sack-getter, can just beat his man and pressure Milano, then the Panthers offense will be doomed.

For Amherst, Foy’s dual-threat ability is something new to the offense, much like the wrinkle that Lebowitz provides to Middlebury. Except for that with Amherst, it’s not just in specialty packages, it’s every play. Foy is one of the fastest guys on the field, and the fact that he can also throw it makes him exceptionally dangerous. In the past, Amherst has been completely run-heavy, and even though they’ve run the ball nearly twice as much as they’ve thrown it this season, much of that is attributed to playing with big leads. The LJs’ have the capability to air the ball out and boast a bevy of talented receivers. With this likely to be Amherst’s closest game so far of 2015, Foy will be tested for the first time as a starter.

I’m pushing in my chips with Amherst, but I’d say they’re about a one-point favorite in this game (hence the prediction), so I’m not going to be surprised if Middlebury pulls it out. A turnover here or there will probably change the outcome of the game, and with the Panthers’ throw-first tendencies and Amherst’s loaded D-backfield, the Jeffs’ are a safer bet to win the TO battle.

The NbN team will be on-site this Saturday, as both Adam and I are making plans to see the game in person. Are we a little crazy? Is our love of NESCAC football completely foolish and unheard of? Would we be better served kicking back on the quad with a cold Keystone and watching girls in short shorts throw the Frisbee around on Saturday afternoon?

No. Maybe you’re the crazy one.

Adam here: projected high on Saturday in Middlebury is 56. There will be no short shorts being worn there. Also, I will be wearing a Montreal Expos hat at the game Saturday, and nothing would make Joe’s and my week like somebody coming up to talk shop for a little.