Basketball – Page 2 – Nothing But NESCAC

Really Big Wins, No Big Rin(g)s: Trinity’s Season in Review

The efforts of Jaquann Starks '16 and Eg Ogundeko '17 weren't enough to get Trinity by high-scoring Johnson & Wales in the first round of the NCAA Tournament at Plattsburgh St. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics) — The efforts of Jaquann Starks ’16 and Eg Ogundeko ’17 weren’t enough to get Trinity by high-scoring Johnson & Wales in the first round of the NCAA Tournament at Plattsburgh St. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)

The Buffalo Bills of the early 1990’s. The 1990’s Atlanta Braves (except for 1995). University of Michigan basketball in 1992 and 1993. And, worst of all, the 2007 Patriots.

All dynastic-type franchises and programs. None of them champions. It takes a certain level of talent to be the best team and win more games than anyone else throughout the course of a season. It takes something else, some undefinable, to be a champion.

As great as Trinity basketball has been over the course of the past two seasons – a 42-15 record (.737), 18-2 (.900) conference record, defenses rated near the top of the NESCAC and all of Division-III, an Elite Eight run a year ago and another NCAA trip this season – they have not been able to win a NESCAC title despite the Semis and Finals being played in Hartford. After once again clinching home court advantage through the NESCAC playoffs, the Semifinal exit for the Bantams was a disappointing one.

Let’s not forget, though, about the accomplishments that this team achieved. The Bantams graduated a few critical pieces, as most good teams do. Hart Gliedman ’15, a tenacious perimeter defender. George Papadeas ’15, a paint-clogging center at 6’8″. And a couple of important forwards in Steve Spirou ’15 and Alex Conaway ’15. The backcourt went through a further transition, as Andrew Hurd ’16 became the PG1 and Jaquann Starks ’16, an All-NESCAC player last year, had to morph himself into a traditional two-guard. There was a question of what kind of offensive production Trinity would get out of the post. Last year center Ed Ogundeko ’17 was the team’s third-leading scorer, but he shot an ugly 46.3 percent from the floor – not very good for a guy that doesn’t shoot from outside the paint. And lastly, there was the question of how the team would respond from a disappointing loss in the NESCAC Semis followed by a deep NCAA run.

All things considered, Trinity had a successful year, once again claiming the No. 1 seed by being the best team during the NESCAC regular season. There’s no doubt, though, that the Bantams will look back on this season and feel that there was some unfinished business.

Highlight Moment: 76-75 Win against Williams in the NESCAC Season Opener

The first game of the conference schedule always carries a lot of weight, but that is particularly true for a team like Trinity, trying to prove that it is not a fluke. The upstart Ephs had the advantage down the stretch, but it was the cool nerves of the experienced Bantams that made the difference. Trinity was down 70-68 with just moments to play, but then scored six points off of steals – two from Shay Ajayi ’16 and one from Starks – to stay in the fight. Finally, it was a contested, banked-in runner from Starks with six seconds left and followed by a steal from Starks himself that iced the game.

Team MVP: F Shay Ajayi

Shay Ajayi '16 is nasty. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics) — Shay Ajayi ’16 is nasty. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)

This is an easy one, as Ajayi not only gets our vote for Team MVP, but he already took home NESCAC POY honors. Ajayi’s game is so well-rounded that it’s hard to find a weakness. He is a menace defensively because of his length, and his ability to score inside, outside and attacking the rim is unmatched in the NESCAC. His stat line speaks for itself: 13.9 ppg on 48.3/32.1/78.0% shooting, 7.3 rpg, 1.6 spg and 1.0 bpg.

Biggest Surprise: The Loss of Hart Gliedman Didn’t Hurt Too Badly

People close to the program might read that and think I’m crazy. I don’t know how important Gliedman was as a leader and a presence off the floor, and believe me, as a former scrappy all-defense guard myself back in high school and today on the intramural circuit, I respect the man’s game. I only say this because American University transfer Langdon Neal ’17 became a vicious perimeter defender this season. Every time I watched Trinity, Neal was the player that caught my eye, constantly pressuring the ball handler and disrupting passing lanes. Need proof of his defensive capabilities? How about 1.0 steals per game in just 14.1 minutes per game. Ajayi lead the Bantams with 1.6 steals per game, but of course was also on the floor for almost 25 minutes per game. Neal comes in at 14th in the league in steals per game, and played by far the fewest minutes of anyone ranked that high. Tim Ahn ’19 (17.0 mpg) and Josh Britten ’16 (19.5 mpg) were the only guys above Neal that played less than 20 minutes per contest. I’d love to see what Neal does in an expanded role next season, and if he breaks into the starting five he could be a sneaky play for DPOY.

Most Interesting Stat: Shay Ajayi lead the Bantams with 24.9 mpg

That might not sound like a spectacular stat, but get this. Ajayi’s 24.9 mpg ranks 33rd in the NESCAC. Every other team besides Bates (one, Mike Boornazian ’16) and Conn College (two, Tyler Rowe ’19 and Zuri Pavlin ’17) had at least three players average more minutes than Ajayi. The entire Colby starting five averaged more minutes than Ajayi. Obviously, the advantage for the Bantams was that they were always fresh. It’s interesting though. What could Head Coach James Cosgrove be giving up by leaving Ajayi (or Starks, or Ogundeko, etc.) on the bench for 15 minutes and going to the eighth, ninth or 10th guy in the rotation? The Bantams’ core players were forced into more usage in the playoffs. Against Middlebury, Ajayi played 24 minutes, Starks 25, Ogundeko 26 and Hurd 29. Against Johnson & Wales, the totals were Ajayi 22, Starks 22, Hurd 27 and Ogundeko 31. Is it possible that they were worn down towards the end of the game, and that lead to those losses? We’ll never know for sure, and Cosgrove basically employed the same strategy last season, when the Bantams lost in the NESCAC Semis but did make it to the Elite Eight (Starks lead with 28.6 mpg, Ajayi was second with 25.2 mpg and no one else topped 22.1 mpg). It’s proven to be an effective strategy during the regular season, but perhaps it has contributed to a few disappointing postseason showings.

Season Round Ups of the Non-NCAA NESCAC Squads

Bobby Casey '19 and the Williams College Ephs were one of seven NESCAC teams blocked, if you will, from making the NCAA tournament this year. (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics) — Bobby Casey ’19 and the Williams College Ephs were one of seven NESCAC teams blocked, if you will, from making the NCAA tournament this year. (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)

Unfortunately, all 11 NESCAC teams didn’t make it to the NCAA field this year. I feel like a gung ho Hamilton team might have surprised some people, but I guess that’s a moot point now. Check out our brief season reviews for each team and a look at what next season might bring.

Hamilton College Continentals (11-13, 2-8)

It wasn’t a pretty season for the Continentals. While they managed to finished just one game below .500, they only won two NESCAC match ups. They finished tied with Bates for last in the NESCAC in the standing and were 10th in points per game and field goal percentage. Their three point shooting was better – eighth in the NESCAC – but this is a Hamilton team that really struggled to score, but they managed to play some NESCAC teams tough throughout the year, and even bested eventual NESCAC champion Middlebury.

The Conts were much better defensively. In their last game of the year, they held Amherst to 65 points. Their field goal percentage allowed was good for sixth in the league, and they rebounded well, with big man Andrew Groll ’19 leading the way with an impressive 7.8 rebounds per game.

2016-17 Outlook:

Coach Adam Stockwell changed the starting five often throughout the year, so their returners will mostly all have starting experience. Hamilton has youth on their side, as they will only be graduating two players who started as many as nine games. There are only two rising seniors in the rotation, so this roster still has a lot of room to grow. Guards Jack Dwyer ’18, who led the NESCAC in assists at 5.5 per game, and Peter Hoffmann ’19 will be the top scoring returners. Other players who could develop include Michael Grassey ’19, fourth in the conference with 46 percent from 3PT range, and Groll, fourth in the league at 7.8 rpg and third with 1.8 blocks per game.

Bates College Bobcats (10-14, 2-8)

Bates was the worst team in the NESCAC this season. Let’s take a look at some of their NESCAC rankings.

Ninth in ppg and last in field goal percentage
Tenth in 3PT percentage, but they took the most threes in conference games
Ninth in free throw percentage.
Eleventh in defensive rebounding
Tenth in turnovers.
Eighth in personal fouls

What’s worse for the Bobcats is that they will lose captain Mike Boornazian ’16, who finished seventh in the NESCAC in minutes, and was named to the Maine All-State team for the third time. Although he struggled shooting the ball this year, with a 36.5 field goal percentage and a 29.5 mark from deep, he still led the team in points, and was a reliable 15 ppg player the last three years for Bates.

2016-17 Outlook:

There aren’t many positive things to focus on for Bates. Bates players are hard to find among the NESCAC individual stat leaders. One area of note is that the Bobcats will rely heavily on the Delpeche twins next season. Center Malcolm Delpheche ’17 was fifth in blocks in the NESCAC at 1.1 per game, and forward twin brother Marcus Delpeche ’17 was also an important starter for the Bobcats. The growth of sophomore guard Shawn Strickland ’18, coming off of a solid season, will also play a significant role in Bates’ success next year. Their next batch of freshman will likely play a large role in determining their fate in 2016-17. They have a lot they need to improve before they can be competitive in the NESCAC again.

Connecticut College Camels (12-12, 3-7)

Zuri Pavlin '17 and the Camels have plenty of time to reflect on this season before they make a NESCAC run next year. (Courtesy of Conn College Athletics) — Zuri Pavlin ’17 and the Camels have plenty of time to reflect on this season before they make a NESCAC run next year. (Courtesy of Conn College Athletics)

The NESCAC’s southernmost team finished 12-12 overall, and went 3-7 in conference play in 2015-16. They had fine averages across the board offensively, with 79.3 ppg and an efficient 46.1/37.7/73.8 percent slash line. No single player ran their offense, as seven Camels players averaged over 6.5 ppg, and each of their top six averaged 9.5 ppg or more. The 2015-16 Camels lacked a star, however, with top scorer Lee Messier ’18 averaging 13.8 ppg. Connecticut won’t be scrambling to replace seniors next year. Their only graduating starter is Bo McKinley ’16, and he was essentially their sixth man. They’ll still have forward Zuri Pavlin ’17 (8.6 rebounds per game, good for third in the league), Lee Messier (44.9 percent from 3PT range, fifth in the NESCAC), and Tyler Rowe ’19 (fifth in the league in steals, with 1.5 per game).

2016-17 Outlook:

A full season out of Lee Messier could help the Camels become more of a NESCAC threat. They’ll also benefit from a balanced starting lineup next year, potentially heading into 2016-17 with a nice balance of two seniors, a junior, and two sophomores. They had the fifth-best offense in the NESCAC this year, and because they won’t lose any high impact seniors, they’ll have a good chance to repeat or improve on that ranking next year. Their key will be improving a defense that finished second to last in the NESCAC.

Colby College Mules (16-9, 4-6)

Predicting 2016-17 for the Mules is problematic for one very obvious reason: They will graduate their top five scorers. Their starting five was purely seniors this year.

What does that say about the team’s outlook going forward? Did head coach Damien Strahorn not trust any of his underclassmen in starting roles? Was this a failed “win now” attempt? Whatever the reason, finding a new starting five is going to be a challenge for the Mules.

2016-17 Outlook:

This Colby team has more questions and more unknowns going into next year than any other team in the league. Their returning players simply didn’t get extensive playing time, so it’s difficult to know what to expect, except for regression. It’s always hard to replace a 15 ppg player, let alone two of them (Chris Hudnut ’16 and Ryan Jann ’16), and on top of that they’ll lose Patrick Stewart ’16, who led the league in three point shooting this season (52.3 percent).

Bowdoin College Polar Bears (12-11, 4-6)

The Polar Bears boasted arguably the best senior and best freshman in the NESCAC this season, but even all of that firepower wasn’t enough to make any kind of legitimate run at the NESCAC title. Bowdoin snuck its way in to the NESCAC tournament with a two-win weekend at the end of the season, but were dispatched by Amherst in the first round. While losing the scoring punch of Lucas Hausman ’16 will be tough to overcome, perhaps more worrisome is that the Polar Bears were a very bad defensive team this season, and that’s a systemic problem. Hausman himself wasn’t a great defender, so his replacement should provide a plus on that end, but the majority of a rotation that gave up 76.0 ppg will be back. Graduating with Hausman are starters Matt Palecki ’16 and Jake Donnelly ’16. The other starters and role players will be back.

2016-17 Outlook

Prepare for the Jack Simonds ’19 Show to begin. What was once Hausman’s team will now become Simonds’. With his size and shooting ability (45.7% FG, 35.8% 3PT, 89.7% FT), Simonds has POY potential. Surrounding Simonds will be the tough rebounding Neil Fuller ’17 and a couple of freshmen that showed promise but will need to make huge leaps forward in point guard Tim Ahn ’19 and forward Hugh O’Neil ’19. The immediate future isn’t particularly bright for Bowdoin, but with Fuller the only rising senior set to play significant minutes, 2017-18 could be the Polar Bears’ turn to strike.

Williams College Ephs (15-10, 5-5)

The Ephs did several things very well this year, allowing the lowest field goal percentage and shooting the highest percentage from the field in league games. They were the NESCAC model of efficiency. On top of that, they made the second most three pointers in NESCAC games. Surprisingly, the Ephs struggled overall statistically, ending up 10th in rebounding, last in steals, and seventh in blocks. Despite those areas of concern, Williams only allowed 66.2 ppg, the best mark in the league.

Williams enjoyed an incredibly balanced starting five this year, going with a senior, a junior, two sophomores and a freshman, so they’re well set for 2016-17. Essentially, the only senior they will lose is center Edward Flynn ’16 who averaged 7.1 ppg and 5.4 rpg.

2016-17 Outlook:

Their senior losses are very manageable, and by the numbers, there’s no reason they shouldn’t be very competitive next season. The best news for Williams? They return Daniel Aronowitz ’17, who was third in the NESCAC at 18.2 points per game, fifth with 7.4 rebounds per game, and fifth in minutes. With their strong percentages across the board, and a NESCAC stud in Aronowitz, Williams should be able to top their 5 -5 record from this season. They struggled in their two games against Amherst, but Williams’ other NESCAC losses against Tufts and Middlebury were close games. Williams might not be far off from returning to the top of the heap.

Wesleyan (18-7, 5-5)

This is a Cardinals team that really struggled to score, finishing near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories, but their strong defense buoyed them throughout the year. They were the fourth-best scoring defense in conference games and had a +2.5 rebounding margin in NESCAC games.

The loss of BJ Davis ’16 will hurt the Cardinals, potentially more than the loss of any player in the NESCAC. He was an all-around player, and a workhorse for Wesleyan, leading the league in minutes. He didn’t miss a game in 2015-16. His overall production put him among the NESCAC elite, with 16.4 ppg – fifth in the NESCAC – and 1.4 steals per game – seventh in the conference.

2016-17 Outlook:

Kevin O’Brien ’19 was the only freshman or sophomore to get a start for this Wesleyan squad. They graduate three contributing seniors, but PJ Reed ’17, Harry Rafferty ’17 and Joseph Kuo ’17 all have significant experience. Kuo was second in scoring at 11.1, so offense will be a big concern for the Cardinals. Without Davis, the Cardinals will probably have to go back to the formula of a year ago, sharing the scoring equally among half a dozen players. It’ll be a tall order to replace the talented point man.

Cinderella’s Last Dance: Middlebury’s Season in Review

Matt St. Amour '17 lead Middlebury with 19.5 ppg this season, second-most in the NESCAC. (Courtesy of Michael Borenstein/Middlebury Campus) — Matt St. Amour ’17 lead Middlebury with 19.5 ppg this season, second-most in the NESCAC. (Courtesy of Michael Borenstein/Middlebury Campus)

Let’s begin at the beginning.

With the team’s top two scorers graduating from the season before, I figured that Middlebury might go through some transition time as it tried to discover its new identity. Expectations around the program were low considering the scoring exodus. Still, after a ninth-place finish in the NESCAC a season ago, and my perception that as talented as Dylan Sinnickson ’15 and Hunter Merryman ’15 were that they had a tendency to stall the offense, my sense was that there was nowhere to go but up, but in my most optimistic vision the Panthers were still packing it up after a loss in a road playoff game.

The season-opening loss to Baldwin Wallace wasn’t too upsetting. Baldwin was an 18-9 team a year ago and already had two games under its belt before meeting up with Middlebury. It was the six-point loss to lowly St. Lawrence the next night that got me worried. A week later, after getting a W against SUNY-New Paltz on a Tuesday, Middlebury faced its toughest early season opponent in then-No. 25 Oswego St. I was just hoping that the Panthers would be competitive. They were not, and lost 70-55. After a loss to Skidmore a week later that made Middlebury 3-5, with two of those wins against Johnson St., I was ready to throw in the towel. I knew it was a tough early season schedule, entirely on the road with two teams hovering near the bottom of the D3Hoops Top 25. Still, they gave me little reason to believe that a turnaround was imminent.

Apparently, all the Panthers needed to do was go home.

The next game was a 22-point win over Castleton St. Then the Panthers destroyed Plattsburgh St. 71-49, and that was the first real eye-opener. Plattsburgh finished the season ranked No. 23, and even though they weren’t ranked at the time, it was known that they were a solid team, and Middlebury blew them out. One of the Cardinals top guards was out, but that doesn’t make up for the 22-point beatdown that the Panthers laid on them. At tough battle on the road at Endicott, who finished 19-11 this year, was encouraging. Than another easy win against Southern Vermont (24-4). SVC is no team to scoff at, either. (If you don’t know about that program’s rise, you should check out how they got to where they are here.) They play an easy schedule, but they also just played Tufts to the buzzer, losing by two in the NCAA First Round.

Still, looking at the full body of work coming into conference play, Middlebury was 6-6, and they had yet to inspire a ton of confidence in anyone watching them. With the NESCAC opener set to take place against Wesleyan in early January, and the Cardinals’ BJ Davis ’16 suddenly looking like a POY candidate, Panthers’ fans weren’t feeling too great. Then Middlebury went on the road and absolutely ran away from Wesleyan in the second half after falling behind early. It wasn’t necessarily an aha! moment. The Panthers lost the next night at Conn College. From that point on, it was a constant struggle and battle to be consistent. Injuries and illness riddled the Middlebury roster throughout the season. Matt Daley ’16 was in and then out of the lineup, and at times looked like he was playing at 50 percent. The frontcourt was constantly rotating. Head Coach Jeff Brown couldn’t figure out whether his freshman trio was going to start or play 15 minutes or not play at all. The only guarantee all season long was the play of the starting backcourt. Matt St. Amour ’17, Jake Brown ’17 and Jack Daly ’18 started 86 of 87 possible games (the only one missed was Brown on Senior Night, when he came off the bench to play 34 minutes). The three could not complement each other any better, and with another year of growth ahead of them, the sky is the limit for the 2016-17 Panthers’ squad.

Highlight Moment: 81-79 win over Amherst in the NESCAC Championship, Sunday February 28

Feels great to be a champion ?

— JPD (@lildales5) February 28, 2016

The Panthers really backed their way into a NESCAC Tournament home game. Losing – badly – to Trinity and Amherst on the last weekend of conference play should have cost Middlebury that privilege, but Wesleyan had an even worse weekend, falling to Colby and Bowdoin. So, coming into the tournament, expectations remained low for the Panthers. Even if they got by Wesleyan, the thinking went, there was no way they could upset Trinity, who hosted the tournament, and beating Amherst was a pipe dream. Somehow, though, the stars aligned. Daley had the best weekend of his career against the Bantams and No Mascots. The big man had 34 points on 14-18 (77.8 percent) shooting, and most importantly was in the game for 27 and 28 minutes, providing an imposing post presence. It took a poorly-timed carry from Johnny McCarthy ’18 in transition to really put the nail in the coffin against Amherst, but whether it was the right call or not, Middlebury was cutting the nets moments later for the third time in program history, and the one that, though he wouldn’t admit, has to be particularly sweet for Jeff Brown. Not only was it a statement performance a year after missing the NESCAC Tournament, but coaching your own nephew to a conference title has to be pretty sweet.

Team MVP: PG Jake Brown

Matt St. Amour was the leading scorer, First-Team All-NESCAC honoree and First Team All-NbN recipient; Jack Daly emerged as a great perimeter defender; I will still maintain that Matt Daley is the most talented big man in the NESCAC and he played awesome at times; Adisa Majors ’18 stepped up and proved that he’s a viable starter in this league; but despite all of that, Jake Brown was the most valuable and important player for Middlebury this season. He’s the best point guard in the NESCAC. His game is not yet complete. He struggles from the free throw line, and I think he will still make an improvement from the three-point line next season, but everything else he does is elite. The ball handling wows spectators. The defense is tenacious and frustrating for opposing guards. The transition game is nearly flawless. And he got to a new level of swagger this season that made clear why he was elected a captain by his teammates. In the Panthers’ NCAA Second Round loss, it was Brown who nailed a clutch three-pointer to give them a chance on the final play in a one-possession game. If he continues to play like this, and even makes marginal improvements next season, it will be a shame if he isn’t recognized as a NESCAC First Teamer.

Biggest Surprise: The Emergence of Forward Adisa Majors

Majors came completely out of nowhere this season to become an interior force. As a freshman, the 6’5″ 210-pounder was sparsely used, only seeing limited action in 12 games. His skills and athleticism were both far off from allowing him to play a significant role. The one thing he had going for him was some natural size, but even that seemed to work against him as he lacked the quickness necessary to be effective.

All of that changed between last season and this. Majors’ game blossomed in every facet, and physically he transformed himself. Reportedly a health nut, Majors came into the season in fantastic shape and looking much stronger. He added a 15-foot jumper to his game. And the best part about watching him play is his energy. Majors has one of those motors that never stops. The big man finished the season as the team’s fifth-leading scorer at 7.2 ppg, but it was during a stretch of six NESCAC games in February – often without a healthy Matt Daley – that Majors proved he belonged, averaging 14.0 ppg while shooting 68.6 percent and grabbing 6.3 rpg.

Most Interesting Stat: Matt St. Amour, Jake Brown and Jack Daly finished the season first, second and third in the NESCAC in steals per game.

St. Amour paced the league with 1.8 steals per game, while Brown and Daly just eked by a couple of others who averaged, when rounded, 1.6 steals per game. Middlebury’s defense was tenacious, and more than anything it was just constant effort that lead to all of those steals. Credit needs to be given to the frontcourt, as well, for tipping post feeds that the guards were able to collect. St. Amour, Brown and Daly were also great at having active hands when sinking into the paint. Having this crew coming back gives Middlebury fans hope that the Panthers can once again be productive next year.

NCAA First Round Preview: #20 Tufts vs. Southern Vermont

Like many first round match ups, Southern Vermont and Tufts took very different roads to reach the NCAA tournament. Southern Vermont lost two of their first three games to Salisbury and St. Thomas (MN), both in the Hoopsville National Invitational Classic hosted by Stevenson University. Neither of these losses can be considered bad ones: Salisbury and St. Thomas are both tournament teams, and are ranked at #24 and #8 in the country, respectively. These two close losses actually seemed to help SVM, as the Mountaineers went 23-1 the rest of the way, including winning their last 16 games, all of which were against conference opponents. Sure, the NECC is not loaded with talent (no other NECC team received an NCAA bid), but conference games are conference games no matter how you slice it. SVM accumulated some quality wins against Regis and Becker en route to their conference tournament title, and also won a close game at Bates just before the winter break. I know Bates didn’t have a very good year, but no matter who you are, playing in that small gym is not easy thanks to the rowdy student section, so this is a good win. Unfortunately for SVM, the only three tournament teams they played are their three losses, with the third being Middlebury. When SVM visited the Panthers, Middlebury blew them out by 18 points. SVM couldn’t shut down Matt St. Amour ’17, and strong contributions from Matt Daley ’16 and Jack Daly ’18 helped to put away the Mountaineers early. With all this in mind, riding a 16-game win streak into the NCAA tournament is not something to turn your nose up at. After receiving two straight NECC Coach of the Year honors, SVM Head Coach Dan Engelstad has shown that he knows how to win. SVM doesn’t play down to their competition, evidenced by their average margin of victory of 17.1 ppg. I don’t care who they’ve played; SVM has showed they are dangerous.

On the other side of the court are the Tufts Jumbos. The Jumbos are a streaky team, so their loss last weekend to Amherst in the NESCAC semi-finals could be either good or bad. Following losses, the Jumbos have done won the following number of games before their next loss: one, eight, one, four, and four. This leaves it completely up for speculation what the Jumbos will do following this most recent loss. One thing Tufts has shown is that they do not lose two games in a row. Even after a poor game against Trinity at home, Tufts bounced back the next day and beat Amherst with relative ease. The tough schedule Tufts plays has battled tested them, and I think they’re in great shape to make a run in the tournament. The big wins for the Jumbos came against Amherst at home, and at two neutral sites against #11 Whitman and #16 Babson. In conference, Tufts beat every bottom half team, but lost to all four of the other top five teams, Trinity, Amherst, Middlebury and Wesleyan. Their other two losses were against solid teams in MIT and WPI, but WPI blew out the Jumbos by 15, accounting for Tufts’ worst loss of the season. One thing to take note of is that four of these losses, excluding Wesleyan and MIT, came against tournament teams, and two losses (Wesleyan and Middlebury) came in overtime. Tufts is a strong, strong team, and their six losses are deceiving because of the extremely tough schedule they play.

Despite their different paths to the big dance, these two teams are very evenly matched. They scored at about the same clip on nearly the same number of attempts: SVM 85.1 ppg on 65.4 FGA/game; Tufts 86.1 ppg on 65.3 FGA/game. They hit pretty evenly from deep too: SVM hits 8.0 3PT/game while Tufts drains 8.2 3PT/game, but SVM shoots a tad more consistently at 37.4 percent rather than Tufts’ 35.1 percent. Both teams rely on their rebounding, and are very even in this category as well: each team averages 12.7 offensive rpg, but SVM averages 43.0 overall rpg as opposed to Tufts’ 42.5 rpg. Clearly, the teams match up in a shooting and rebounding, so where do they differ? There is one main answer to that question: defense. While they score at about the same rate, Tufts allows 77.6 ppg vs. SVM’s 68.0 ppg. This makes the Tufts defense look much worse than SVM’s, but I think this gap can be attributed to the difference in strength of schedule. Since Tufts is playing better teams, it makes complete sense that they give up more points. I’m not saying SVM doesn’t play good defense, but there is certainly a difference in the level of competition day in and day out.

Southern Vermont X-factor: Forward Deshawn Hamlet ‘16

(Courtesy of Southern Vermont Athletics)

Deshawn Hamlet is hands down the best player on the Mountaineers roster. As a junior, Deshawn was the NECC player of the year, and he followed that up with First Team All-NECC recognition. Though the scoring is pretty spread out for Southern Vermont, this team thrives when Hamlet puts the ball in the basket. He has been held under 10 points just four times this season, and each of those times, Hamlet got into foul trouble. He leads the team in scoring and rebounding at 14.7 ppg and 8.2 rpg, each of which is driven by his strength and tenacity. Hamlet can shoot the ball from the perimeter pretty accurately, but he is very selective on his outside shots. Hamlet’s best when he uses his big body to power his way through smaller wings. At 6’4”, Hamlet is one of SVM’s tallest players, but he is very nimble for what I would guess is a 220-225ish lbs. forward (SVM’s website doesn’t list the weight of their players). Hamlet will likely be matched up with Stephen Haladyna ’16 or Vinny Pace ’18, which plays in his favor since these two are listed at just 180lbs. and 185lbs., respectively. I wouldn’t be surprised to see more minutes out of Stefan Duvivier ’18 as a defensive stopper on Hamlet, as he is a much bigger yet extremely athletic wing. I’m excited to see what Coach Bob Sheldon does defensively to deal with Hamlet.

Tufts X-factor: Center Tom Palleschi ‘17

Like Hamlet, Palleschi was just named to his all-conference first team, and he is bound to have a big game for the Jumbos. There isn’t a player on the SVM roster listed over 6’6”, and on a short team I wouldn’t be surprised if Casey Hall ’16 was given the 6’6” listing out of generosity. Palleschi was on fire during the last six regular season games, and though he cooled off a bit in the NESCAC tournament, his presence alone is a huge advantage for the Jumbos. He averaged 18.7 ppg in the month of February, and with such a size advantage and the variety of post moves Palleschi has in his arsenal, he is either going to eat up his one-on-one matchup or he is going to open shooters up for wide open threes when SVM collapses into the paint. I don’t think Tufts needs Palleschi to score 15ish points to win, but it certainly bodes well for the home team if he does.

Three Questions

1.) Will SVM be able to stop Palleschi?

I could very well be wrong (I’ve never seen Southern Vermont play after all), but I don’t see any way that they stop Palleschi. He has shown over and over again that he is a dynamic scorer down low, especially against undersized centers. The big man struggles the most against Eric Conklin ’17-type post players, aka the very solid, very wide centers. To reiterate, I’ve never seen SVM play, and I could very well be underestimating the width of Casey Hall, but if I’m right, he looks like he’s a lankier center than he is a big bruiser. Palleschi should take advantage of this matchup, and he is a good enough passer that it should negate the effect of SVM doubling down on him.

2.) Who steps up as the secondary scorer for SVM?

Over the course of the season, Hall has been the secondary scorer behind Hamlet, but with Palleschi’s stifling defense down low, I am not quite sure he’ll be able to get his normal 10-12 points. I’m looking at Will Bromirski ’16 to step up for the Mountaineers. At just 5’11”, it could be tough for Bromirski to get his shots off against the taller wings of Tufts, but if Hamlet demands as much attention as I expect he will, Bromirski will be open to shoot from the perimeter.

3.) What will SVM do about Tufts’ fast pace?

I have to assume that SVM is a pretty fast-paced team based on their guard heavy lineup and lack of size. Coach Sheldon stressed to me that Tufts is still going to try to play their game: “We want to do what we’ve been doing all year. We’re not going to change for the NCAA tournament. We’re doing what got us here.” So basically, Tufts is still going to try to get out and run. If SVM can play solid transition defense, they can force Tufts into a half court offense, but that gives Palleschi more opportunities to work down low. I don’t know which SVM would prefer, speeding Tufts up or slowing them down. This strategy decision will likely decide the game for SVM.

Prediction

If Southern Vermont wants to win this one, they have to hope that they can find a way to slow down Palleschi. Make other people beat you, make Pace recreate his 33-point performance that he had last weekend when Palleschi struggled from the field, make Ryan Spadaford ’16 hit shots from deep, make Haladyna shoot 10 or 15 shots. The Mountaineers have to do something besides allow Tufts to pound the ball into the post. Deshawn Hamlet is also going to have to have a crazy game offensively. I expect him to score around 20 points, but SVM relies on a very balanced attack that I just don’t see scoring the ball like they did in conference play. Cousens Gym has gotten louder and louder as the year has gone on and the Jumbos have continued to win, and Tufts feeds off the energy of their crowd. I think Tufts is going to have a small lead going into halftime, but as the game wears on and Palleschi forces the Mountaineers into foul trouble, the Jumbos will have a good chance to run away with this one.

Prediction: Tufts 84 – Southern Vermont 72

Eye on Saturday

If Tufts wins this one like I think they will, they’re going to play the winner of Franklin & Marshall vs. Skidmore. At 18-8 in a relatively weak conference, it’s clear that Skidmore is in the tournament because they won their conference tournament. This is not to say that Skidmore doesn’t deserve to be here – they won the regular season in the Liberty League as well – but they have been inconsistent. They blew out Plattsburgh State and beat Middlebury by five, both of whom are tournament teams, but they have some bad losses. Franklin & Marshall also won their conference tournament, but at 22-5, they have showed that they know how to win just a bit better than Skidmore does. I think F&M is definitely a better and more consistent team, with a history of postseason success, but Skidmore has shown the ability to explode offensively, and I think that they’ll do that tonight and upset F&M.

This brings us to tomorrow. Skidmore is led by freshman phenom Edvinas Rupkus ’19, who is averaging 16.7 ppg from the guard spot. At 6’4”, 205 lbs., Rupkus could have a size advantage over some of the Tufts guards, but after dealing with Hamlet tonight, it might feel like Rupkus is actually a smaller guard. Skidmore has a couple big boys that measure in at 6’8”, but they don’t play very many minutes, and once again, I think Palleschi will have an opportunity to dominate inside. The ability of Tufts to knock down open shots on kick outs from Palleschi will determine the outcome of this one, but I’m expecting Tufts to move on to the Sweet 16 after a couple big wins at home. Maybe I’m a bit biased in favor of the NESCAC teams, but I keep coming back to the toughness of the Tufts schedule in giving them the edge. They have been tested, and I think that they’re ready to get a couple wins this weekend.

NCAA First Round Preview: Trinity vs. #12 Johnson and Wales

Andrew Hurd '16 cruises for an easy two with his luscious hair. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics) — Andrew Hurd ’16 cruises for an easy two with his luscious hair. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)

Predicting the match up between two teams that are such polar opposites and that haven’t played each other before sure leaves room for speculation. Trinity is set to square off against #12 Johnson and Wales (26-2, 17-1) tonight at SUNY Plattsburgh. The NCAA committee selected the Bantams as an at-large team into the tournament as they amassed a 19-7 (9-1) record, earning the #1 seed in the NESCAC tournament, before being upset by Middlebury 70-58 in last weekend’s semifinals. Johnson and Wales of Rhode Island ensured their own trip to the dance as they won the Great Northwestern Athletic Conference playoffs and regular season in convincing fashion, finishing 26-2. Johnson and Wales’ Quarry Greenaway ’16 was the GNAC Player of the Year, finishing fourth in the country with 26.1 ppg, while guards Tom Garrick ’16, Anthony Jernigan ’17, and Robert Lewis ’16 also received All-GNAC honors. While the GNAC is not a strong conference, only sending one team to the NCAA tournament, the extensive honors for the Wildcats speaks to their depth and are an explanation for how they are still carrying a 21-game winning streak into Friday’s game, begging the question: Do the Bantams stand a chance?

In Trinity’s last game against Middlebury, they only shot 32.8 percent compared to 43.9 percent on the season from the field. This discrepancy could be a result of a good Panthers defense, but Trinity’s leading scorer, Shay Ajayi ’16, also the NESCAC Player of the Year, had only 11 points. While the Bantams like to spread the playing time around with 11 players averaging over 10 minutes per game, Ajayi is going to have to put up some big numbers against the explosive Johnson and Wales team.

The JWU weak schedule still leaves room for questions despite their gaudy record. Though D3Hoops.com has them ranked 14th, the Wildcats were actually four spots below Trinity in the final public regional rankings that came out before the final weekend of conference tournament games, and judging by Trinity’s positioning on the bracket in the pseudo-No. 2 slot for their pod, the NCAA committee still feels like Trinity is the stronger team. JWU had an atrocious .473 SOS as of the final public regional rankings. For comparison, Trinity’s SOS was .565. However, the two teams did play three teams in common in Elms, Anna Maria and Eastern Connecticut State. They each blew out both Elms and Anna Maria but Trinity lost the Eastern Connecticut 57-49 while Johnson and Wales won 72-59. These games were both early in the season and the 23-point margin of victory against this mutual opponent gives the Wildcats some more credibility. On top of all of that, the Wildcats are averaging 90.6 ppg and shooting a scorching 49.6 percent from the field, both statistics which Trinity can’t ignore.

Trinity X-Factor: Controlling the Ball

It was tough to pick a player here as the Bantams are going to have to do a lot of things right to keep pace with the high-scoring Johnson and Wales team. Instead I chose possession of the ball because JWU ranks in the top-20 in the nation for both scoring offense, scoring defense, and steals. So the Wildcats score the ball, don’t let their opponents score, and take the ball away when their opponents could score. On top of that Johnson and Wales’ Anthony Jernigan leads the nation with 3.8 steals per game. In other words, the Wildcats like to keep the ball and are good at scoring when they have it. To keep pace with them, the Bantams are going to need to limit their turnovers and not rush to shoot. Trinity typically plays tight, low-scoring affairs, averaging a score of 77.5 to 67.3. PG Andrew Hurd ’16 is going to have a tough task of holding the ball and managing the offense as Trinity is going to need to control the ball to keep it out of the hands of the sharp shooting Wildcats.

Johnson and Wales X-Factor: G Quarry Greenaway

This is definitely the obvious choice as Greenaway is the clear leader of the Wildcat team, averaging 26.1 ppg and 9.3 rebounds, earning GNAC Player of the Year honors. However, I chose him not for his shooting ability – he is going to score and there is nothing Trinity can do to stop him. The big question for Johnson and Wales is how will their defense fare against a consistent and deep Trinity team who’s good at shooting the ball and diversifying the points scored throughout the team. Greenaway’s rebounding ability will be put to the test against NESCAC Defensive Player of the Year Ed Ogundeko ’17 who is a big 6’6’’ and takes down 10.6 boards per contest.

Three Questions

1. Will Trinity center and NESCAC Defensive Player of the Year Ed Ogundeko play more than his average 22.3 minutes per game?

This is one aspect of the Trinity game that Coach James Cosgrove must have had on his mind: How can they keep Ogundeko in the game to grab all the rebounds to take the ball out of Johnson and Wales’ hands? It’s simple: four media timeouts that are a minute long each, evenly dispersed in both halves, to go along with the four timeouts that each team begins play with. This should give the big man enough rest time to stay in the game for around 30 minutes, hopefully adding a few more rebounds and a few more shots to the Bantam’s effort.

2. Is Johnson and Wales really that good?

This team has won a lot of games. It is hard to get to 26 wins (as many games as Trinity played all year) without having some talent. Their conference is bad but it looks like they are made up of a few talented players who know how to score at a high percentage rate. At the same time it is Division-III basketball, and no team is unbeatable. The bottom line is, this team certainly earned their ranking and their selection to the tournament, but upsets happen.

3. Which is better — Trinity’s defense or Johnson and Wales’ offense?

This game is going to be a high-scoring affair. Trinity scores 77.5 points per game while Johnson and Wales scores 90.6. The only way that Trinity can stand a chance is if they find a way to limit the Wildcats’ shooting and control the paint on defense. Trinity’s defense has been good all year and they need to keep the Wildcat shooting percentage close to their opponents’ season average of 38.5 percent. They can’t let the higher seed get too many offensive rebounds, as with a nearly 50 percent shooting accuracy, if Johnson and Wales misses once, it isn’t likely to happen again on the same possession.

Everything Else

Offense is certainly the strength of Johnson and Wales. Scoring over 90 points a game is impressive in college basketball, regardless of which level. That is a lot of points in only 40 minutes of play. Since Trinity is a defensive-minded team, they are going to need to find a way to limit the Wildcats’ top scorer Greenaway (26.2 ppg) and Tom Garrick, a 6’5’’ guard, who gets his with 22.4 ppg. Heart and hustle is the only way that the lower-ranked Bantams pull off this upset. Johnson and Wales is used to winning by over 26 points per game and isn’t accustomed to playing teams closely or teams that claw and fight until their last breath. Trinity has their intensity as a major advantage and probably the most important card up their sleeve in facing the foreign team from Rhode Island. Its going to take everything the Bantams have to avoid Johnson and Wales’ 22nd straight win.

Prediction: Johnson and Wales 84 over Trinity 73

Eye on Saturday

If Trinity manages to pull off the upset, then they will play the winner of #23 Plattsburgh State and Fitchburg State. Plattsburgh received an at-large bid while Fitchburg State had to win the MASCAC playoffs to get a bid to the tournament. It looks like Plattsburgh is a pretty clear favorite as they had a harder schedule, play in a better conference, and are ranked. At 18-9 Fitchburg likely wouldn’t have made the tournament without their conference championship win so I’m going to assume that the higher ranked team is going to take the win here. Regardless, I watched the 23rd ranked Cardinals get walked all over by Middlebury earlier this year, leading me to believe that they aren’t unbeatable by any means. The key in that game, though, was that one of Plattsburgh’s top players, guard Edward Correa ’16, didn’t play. Trinity played the Cardinals earlier this year and narrowly lost 81-73, but in that game Plattsburgh’s top scorer, Kyle Richardson ’16, didn’t play, and sixth man Jonathan Patron ’19 (14.2 ppg) was limited to 10 minutes. It will be a tall task for Trinity to get through this weekend to the Sweet 16.

NCAA First Round Preview: Middlebury vs. #24 Salisbury

Here's an artsy photo of Jake Brown '17. (Courtesy of Michael Borenstein/Middlebury Campus) — Here’s an artsy photo of Jake Brown ’17. (Courtesy of Michael Borenstein/Middlebury Campus)

The Middlebury Panthers and Salisbury Sea Gulls are both dancing, but they got here in very different ways. Middlebury finished the season 17-10, and needed an incredible run through the NESCAC tournament to get into the NCAAs. Salisbury, on the other hand, fell in heartbreaking manner in the Capital Athletic Conference championship game against No. 4 Christopher Newport. The Sea Gulls (21-6, 13-5) beat just about everyone but CNU this season, losing to the CAC conference champs three times and twice in overtime, including in the championship. They didn’t think they’d be returning to the Little Dance, one year after making it and falling to Trinity in the Second Round, but the committee was kind and Salisbury is back.

Both teams’ seasons were on almost equivalent paths until the final minutes of their respective championship games. While a shocking carry call on Amherst’s Johnny McCarthy ’18 gave Middlebury the ball and essentially iced the game, an even more mind-blowing push call against Salisbury’s Kyle Savercool ’16 at the buzzer sounded sent CNU to the foul line for the win. Check out the video here, and you decide if Savercool (#15) shoved anyone.

Anyway, enough about how they got here. As Salisbury first year coach Andrew Sachs told me, “We are in [and] that’s all that matters.” Sachs comes to Salisbury, his alma mater, after six years at Bethany College and five at Holy Cross. As our loyal readers, you’ve heard plenty about what Middlebury can and can’t do, but you must be wondering just how good Salisbury is. That’s the beauty of D-III, that teams from outside of one’s region are often a complete mystery, and that can make for some pretty exciting games.

The first thing to know about the Sea Gulls is that their best player, Wyatt Smith, has been out all season with an injury. Smith was a 14.7 ppg forward last year, shooting at 58.6 percent and tearing down almost eight board per game, and had 37 points on 16-20 shooting last year in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. According to Sachs, Smith was indisputably the best player in the CAC. Whether that’s true or not, that assessment speaks to the accomplishment of Salisbury to get to this point without such an important player. In his place forward Gordon Jeter ’17, the team’s only All-CAC honoree, has emerged as the leading scorer, but even calling Jeter a forward is a bit misleading. The Sea Gulls have been outsized pretty much every game this year. Jeter stands at a slender 6’6″, 185 lbs, and is the team’s five-man, if you insist on putting a number on it. He’s very athletic and long, and is the focal point of the Sea Gulls’ offense via the pick and roll. More on that later.

The second thing to know about Salisbury is that they rank second in Division-III at 60.3 ppg allowed. Salisbury will try to break the rhythms of their opponents. They will press and play zone. And they will double everything in the post. And I mean everything. If Jeter has to play man one-on-one on Matt Daley ’16, this game is going to be over quick, so quick rotations are going to be incredibly important for Salisbury.

Salisbury X-factors: G Justin May ’16 and F Chad Barcikowski ’18

I’ll be honest, in my conversation with Coach Sachs, the names May and Barcikowski didn’t come up once. May has served as the team’s sixth man all year, playing 17.1 mpg and scoring 6.7 ppg. I don’t even know what his skill set is like. The same applies to Barcikowski, who’s playing 12.2 mpg and scoring 6.0 ppg. What I do know is that the Sea Gulls have played with an eight-man rotation all season, and now one of those eight, back up Jordan Brooks ’18, is out with an injury and won’t return unless Salisbury is able to make a deep run in the tournament. The Sea Gulls will need to get some quality minutes off of the bench. The saving grace is that they might be aided some by the media timeout structure of the NCAA Tournament – timeouts after 16, 12, eight and four minutes in each half.

Middlebury X-factor: C Matt Daley ’16

Here's a kind of blurry but still sweet photo of Matt Daley '16. (Courtesy of Jeff Patterson) — Here’s a kind of blurry but still sweet photo of Matt Daley ’16. (Courtesy of Jeff Patterson)

Sorry, everyone, back to the well here, but honestly, if Daley goes to work this game is over. He’s got more height than anything Salisbury can throw at him, and not only can he put up double digit points, he might approach 10 assists if he can effectively pass out of those double teams in the post. Defensively, Daley will have to hedge aggressively when Jeter sets screens for the ball handler. And even against the press, Daley will be key because the Panthers will look to get the ball to him in the middle to break the pressure. Adisa Majors ’18 and Connor Huff ’16 will be just as important filling in that role when Daley takes a breather.

Three Questions

1. Will Salisbury get hot from deep?

The Sea Gulls shot 24.9 three pointers per game this season, right around 50th in the nation, making 9.0 per game, which ranks 48th in the country. They don’t necessarily live and die by the three, but everyone that steps on the court for them is a threat to shoot it. All five starters are in the 30-40 percent range, and May is just above 40 percent. Middlebury isn’t a big jump shooting team, and only Matt St. Amour ’17 can really get them back in a game if they fall behind, so an early barrage from Salisbury could make things difficult for the Panthers.

2. Who can take care of the ball?

As mentioned, Salisbury is great at stopping opposing offenses, and part of that is forcing turnovers, having caused 500 turnovers this season. The Panthers, with their reputation for harassing other NESCAC teams and getting steals, caused 401 turnovers. Coach Sachs is a terrific defensive coach. He’s had really good defensive teams in the past, leading the country in steals one year at Bethany. Still, Middlebury has Jake Brown ’17, whom Sachs believes is the best point guard Salisbury has faced all season. Will the Sea Gulls be able to rattle Brown?

3. Is the spotlight too big?

Middlebury assuaged my fears that they might shrink in the moment with their victory in the NESCAC tournament, but the NCAAs are, of course, a different animal. Salisbury has been here before, losing to Trinity in the Second Round a year ago. No one from Middlebury has played in the NCAA Tournament. The current seniors got to step on the court in the final seconds as North Central was laying the smack down in the Elite Eight in 2013, but that’s it. Now, it’s a neutral site, so the crowd won’t be a factor, but there’s no denying the added pressure of an NCAA Tournament game. On the flip side, for Middlebury, they weren’t even supposed to be here As Jack Daly ’18 put, “I feel like we’re playing with house money right now.”

Prediction

On paper, I think Middlebury has the upper hand. They have way more size, and I think their skill in transition bodes well for breaking the Salisbury press. Sure, the Sea Gulls are athletic 1-5 and can be difficult to cover, but there are no slow, lumbering bodies in the Middlebury rotation, either. Daley is almost ideal to cover Jeter on the pick-and-roll, and Zach Baines ’19 will be a good defender off the bench to challenge three pointers. Furthermore, Middlebury played better competition in the NESCAC than Salisbury faced in the CAC. Sachs admitted as much. Still, there remains the fact that the Sea Gulls steal the ball a million times per game. They’re so disciplined defensively, and what if Daley can’t pass the ball out of the post? What if they get hot from three? What if Brown has a few ugly turnovers?

In the end, though, I’m going with the team that Dave McHugh of D3Hoops.com dubbed the Cinderella of the tournament, Middlebury. (You can check out Dave’s conversation with Jeff Brown from yesterday here at the 1:07 mark, although his dubbing of Middlebury as the Cinderella came in the midst of Monday’s four hour bracket breakdown. I dare you to listen to that whole thing.) Being so close to the team might have blinded me, but it also has made me acutely aware of how much better they are with Daley on the floor and healthy. They’re closer to a 20-7 type of team than the 17-10 team they finished the season as. I’m giving Middlebury the edge in a game that plays closer to the Salisbury pace and remains tight, but the Panthers’ experience on the road (only nine games at home this season) will pay off.

Prediction: Middlebury 69 – Salisbury 62

Eye on Saturday

Hypothetically, if Middlebury pulls out the win, they’ll be playing the winner of the host Stockton University and Keene St, whom Middlebury beat by nine back in February. I’ll be honest with you, Keene St. is a major underdog in this one, and if they pull off the upset I’m putting a hefty sum on the Panthers to cruise into the Sweet 16. However, I doubt that happens, and Middlebury would have to play the host on Saturday. The second day of the first weekend is all about heart and grit, because teams don’t have much time at all to game plan. Bates needed an overtime period to beat Stockton at the Ospreys’ gym last year in the Second Round, but only two Stockton starters from that game are back this year. The numbers actually have them pegged as a pretty similar team to Salisbury in that they shoot a lot of threes, make them at a respectable but not incredible rate, keep teams to under 65 points and force other teams to turn the ball over, but don’t have a ton of height and struggle rebounding the ball. With that being the case, I like the Panthers chances to sneak into the Sweet 16, but as is always the case in Division-III, it’s damn near impossible to predict, so let’s just enjoy the show.

Caution: Unfiltered Middlebury Adulation Ahead: Stock Report 3/1

Middlebury is the NESCAC Champion for the third time. (Courtesy of NESCAC.com)

Amherst College is an athletic powerhouse, and that fact is as evident in basketball as anywhere else. Both the men’s and women’s teams advanced to their respective NESCAC Championships yesterday. On the men’s side, it was the program’s 14 appearance in the title game in 17 opportunities. That’s not a misprint. Amherst has competed in 82 percent of all of the NESCAC Championship games in history, and until yesterday had a winning record: 7-6. Yesterday, though, it was not the Purple and White cutting down the nets, but the fourth-seeded Middlebury Panthers. Middlebury limped to a 3-5 start to the season, albeit against a challenging schedule, all on the road, but that slog seemed to prepare Middlebury well for conference play. They still fell short in a couple of games that should have been locks, though, specifically on the road at Conn College and Hamilton, which put the Panthers in a do-or-die situation. Capture the NESCAC crown, or hang up the sneaks until next year. They did just what they had to do on Sunday, punching their NCAA ticket by edging Amherst 81-79 in an all-time classic that featured 23 lead changes and one game-changing call that will haunt Amherst players forever. And because of that, this is going to be a very Middlebury-heavy stock report today. My favorite.

Stock Up

Middlebury C Matt Daley ’16

Matt Daley ’16 looked like the force this weekend that so many Panthers fans have long hoped he could be. (Courtesy of Jeff Patterson)

Cue the preamble about the double-double prognostications and oodles of talent. We all know that already. Let’s focus on his performance during the NESCAC tournament. After getting just five minutes against Wesleyan, Daley must have gotten really pissed, because he played great this weekend. Daley started both games against some of the best defensive centers in the league in Ed Ogundeko ’17 and David George ’17, played 27.5 minutes per game (huge considering that he averaged 17.7 minutes per NESCAC game this season), scored 34 points on 14-18 (77.8 percent) shooting, ripped down 11 boards, had three blocks, and helped hold Ogundeko, George and Eric Conklin ’17 to 20 points on 7-18 (38.9 percent) shooting. The Panthers are a completely different team with Daley playing like he did this weekend, and truly are good enough to make some noise in the NCAA Tournament.

Middlebury Head Coach Jeff Brown

Coach Brown received the best gift any coach could ever ask for back in 2007 – a program-changing player. It was not because of his talent alone that Mike Walsh, class of 2008, was a game changer. After a 6-18 freshman campaign and 12-12 sophomore year, Walsh and the Panthers made to the NESCAC tournament in 2007 but finished 15-10. With one more season to play, Walsh and co-captain Andrew Harris ’08 went to Brown and laid out their plan for changing the Middlebury basketball program. From that moment on, Middlebury basketball has been a powerhouse with a winning attitude and unbelievable work ethic, playing in eight of nine NESCAC tournaments since then and making making NCAA appearances. Add in a string of phenomenal, All-American caliber players in guys like Ben Rudin ’09, Tim Edwards ’10, Andrew Locke ’11, Ryan Sharry ’12 and Joey Kizel ’13, among others, and the job becomes a lot easier for someone in Brown’s position. This season has been different, though. There are some very solid players on the Middlebury team, but no superstars. They weren’t even a playoff team a year ago. And Jeff Brown was able to rally his team after a 3-5 start, after an 0-2 showing on the last weekend of the regular season, and yesterday with Amherst leading by 11 midway through the first half. Strategically this weekend, Brown employed the zone well against Trinity, limiting their ability to make outside shots, and Sunday was just a gritty performance that really culminates the effort this team has put in all year. Kudos to Coach Brown for probably his best coaching performance.

Middlebury Basketball 2016 NESCAC CHAMPS pic.twitter.com/tQBKRodtan

— Henry Pendergast (@henrypendergast) February 28, 2016

Amherst Guard Michael Riopel ’18

Let’s give a little love to a non-Panther. Riopel had the best weekend of his NESCAC life over the past two days. Having averaged 7.0 points per game this season, Riopel lit it up for 11 and 17 in Amherst’s two games, and burned the nets from deep, making six out of seven three point attempts. It’s actually sort of shocking that Middlebury held on yesterday considering that Amherst shot 45.9 percent from the field and 44.8 percent from deep, including Riopel’s 4-5 performance. I expect Riopel will step into the place of Connor Green ’16 in the starting lineup next season, because he’s a dynamic offensive player at times.

Stock Down

Amherst Defense

Granted, they faced two pretty potent offenses in Tufts and Middlebury, but the Purple and White did not do a good job of getting stops this weekend, allowing 83 points to the Jumbos and 81 to Middlebury. Vinny Pace ’18 was just a dominant force for Tufts, and on Sunday it was a combination of Matt St. Amour ’17 and Daley doing the work for the Panthers. So basically Amherst was ineffective at stopping opponents in both the front and back court. In NESCAC games, Amherst had a league-best 69.4 points per game allowed, so this may just be a blip on the radar.

Trinity Offense

The secret might just be out on how to slow down the Bantams. Against Middlebury, Trinity shot just 32.8 percent from the field and in their first half against Colby last weekend Trinity scored just 19 points (of course, they exploded for 52 second half points and won by 11, so maybe the point is moot). What Middlebury did well, and what the Mules did well for the first half, was switch ball screens and pressure the Trinity shooters. Easier said than done, but definitely a key in defeating the Bantams. Teams with length in the backcourt are a tough matchup for the Bants, and St. Amour, Jack Daly ’18 and Zach Baines ’19 are pretty tough to shoot over when they have a hand up. Luke Westman ’16 and Ryan Jann ’16 fall into that category, as well. In six of Trinity’s seven losses this season they’ve shot 31.6 percent or less from deep. Stop the three, stop the Bantams.

Home Teams Sweep Weekend: Stock Report 2/22

Connor Green '16 played like a superstar with 29 points in Amherst's Quarterfinal victory on Saturday. (Courtesy of NESCAC.com) — Connor Green ’16 played like a superstar with 29 points in Amherst’s Quarterfinal victory on Saturday. (Courtesy of NESCAC.com)

What has appeared to be a pretty chaotic NESCAC season suddenly got a lot more clear when the top four teams all pulled out wins in the NESCAC quarterfinals. It wasn’t that clear cut, considering that Colby led Trinity for a good 30 minutes of their game and Bowdoin was down three points with under six minutes to play. Still, the top four teams won, and a big reason for that is the impact of home court advantage.

Trinity, Amherst, Tufts and Middlebury combined to go 18-2 in their NESCAC home games. And those two losses both came at the hands of a fellow top four team with the Bantams knocking off the Jumbos in Medford and Amherst beating Trinity in Hartford. The biggest upsets of the regular season all came on the road: Middlebury falling to Hamilton, Colby topping Amherst, and Bowdoin getting the best of Wesleyan (not that big of an upset in hindsight but still).

Winning on the road is hard, even when there aren’t big raucous crowds to deal with. Athletes are creatures of comfort, and whether it’s the ability to have the same pregame routine or the familiarity of shooting in your home gym, teams undoubtedly do better at home at this level. As an aside, this makes Wesleyan’s championship run last year with two road and one neutral site wins all the more impressive.

Stock Up

SG Matt St. Amour ’17 and PF Adisa Majors ’18 (Middlebury)

Pepin Gymnasium was ROCKING on Saturday, and these two were supplying a lot of the fuel for the crowd to feed off of. After two subpar shooting performances last weekend, St. Amour did not hesitate from long distance early scoring 19 points in the first half as the Panthers built a substantial lead. As he cooled off in the first half, Majors took over, scoring 16 enormous second half points. Eleven of those points came in the final 5:30 of the game. After Nathan Krill ’18 pulled Wesleyan to within five points at 68-63, Majors scored the next six points for the Panthers to get the lead back up to 74-65. The difference in play from Majors this season from last year when he was a seldom used backup has been incredible. The sophomore works his butt off, has a really nice touch around the rim, and is a great mid-range shooter.

Forward Connor Green ’16 (Amherst)

Green has OWNED the Polar Bears over the past two seasons. In four games against Bowdoin, he averaged 24.0 ppg. That includes a clunker in the NESCAC semifinals last year when he had just seven points on 3-14 shooting. That didn’t matter though as Amherst won that game easily 76-56. In the other three games, Green has been sizzling hot from deep, going 19-36 (52.8 percent) on what have been very high difficulty shots. On Saturday, Green finished with 29 points, four rebounds, three assists and no turnovers. His big performance helped Amherst overcome subpar games from Jayde Dawson ’18 and Jeff Racy ’17. I have no idea how Green is going to play next weekend: he could either shoot Amherst out of the tournament or carry them to a NESCAC title. Regardless, I think that Saturday reminded us that he is still Amherst’s best scorer, and it clinched Green’s spot on the All-NESCAC First Team.

Tufts’ Offensive Balance

It is no secret that the Jumbos work their offense through Tom Palleschi ’17, but the junior center is not capable of being the scoring threat that some of the perimeter scorers in the league can be. The offense for Tufts works because all five starters are capable of creating their own shot. And even though Palleschi doesn’t shoot threes very often, he is shooting 45.5 percent from three this season. That means that every Tufts starter is also capable of hitting the three. That puts a lot of strain on a defense. On Saturday, four of the five Jumbo starters were in double figures (the other, Ryan Spadaford ’16, had 8 points), and each of them made a three pointer to boot. The downside for Tufts is that their bench has become somewhat of a non-factor down the stretch. That starting five will have to carry them next weekend.

Stock Down

Wesleyan Cardinals

What a weird season for Wesleyan. They were great against an admittedly soft non-conference schedule to rip off an 11-game winning streak heading into the conference season. Then they started 1-3 in NESCAC before winning their next five games (all vs. NESCAC teams) at home. Would it surprise you if I told you the Cardinals losses in their final three games were all on the road? Wesleyan was #7 in the last regional rankings, and it’s extremely unlikely they get an at-large bid.

On Saturday the fight that Wesleyan possesses was clear even though they fell short. They got a big performance from Harry Rafferty ’17 to come back in the second half. The game looked to be over with just over a minute left and Middlebury holding a nine-point lead. Then BJ Davis ’16 and Jack Mackey ’16 hit two absolutely ridiculous threes to pull the lead back to five points. However, that was as close as Wesleyan would get. The season didn’t go quite as planned for the defending champions, but you have to admit that they went down fighting.

Williams Passing

Some fans of the Ephs have been bemoaning the combined inability of Williams to get assists and not turn the ball over for much of the season. And I haven’t bought into those complaints until Saturday. In the second half, there was a stretch when Williams seemed to be turning the ball over on every possession. And when they didn’t, they weren’t able to generate any good shots. The Ephs finished the game with 15 turnovers and 10 assists. For the season, Williams finished last in the NESCAC averaging as a team 13.4 apg. The offense that Coach Kevin App runs is one predicated on constant cutting and screening, but it wasn’t great at creating good looks inside. The Ephs instead took a lot of threes, the second most in the NESCAC. The return of PG Mike Greenman ’17 from injury next season will do this offense a lot of good.

Colby Seniors

Expectations for Colby were high entering the season. The six Colby seniors were all good NESCAC players, and Chris Hudnut ’16 is one of the five best players in the league when healthy. On the other hand, all this class has to show on a NESCAC level is four consecutive eighth place finishes and subsequent first round exits. A bunch of factors held the Mules back the last two seasons, and there is no denying that Colby was a good team this year capable of knocking off anybody. On the other hand, the Mules failed to ever really deliver on their promise as a team. Now that this group of seniors is graduating, the Mules are going to be in deep trouble next season.

The game against Trinity was a microcosm of that promise. They were in control for much of the game, leading by as many as 12 points. Ultimately, the Bantams came back and enforced their will in the second half. Colby was bothered by the defensive intensity of Trinity, and on the other end they forced just one turnover from the Bantams in the half. What doomed the Mules was that Trinity went back to what works for them: being physical and getting inside. In the first half Trinity shot zero free throws (neither did Colby which is somewhat incredible). However, in the second half the Bantams got to the line 20 times and made 16 of them.

NESCAC Quarterfinal Preview: #6 Williams at #3 Tufts

(Top: Courtesy of Tufts Athletics; Bottom: Courtesy of Williams Athletics)

One of the late games this weekend matches up Tufts with Williams, two teams that played just last Friday. This is the first game for the Jumbos since then, while Williams had the chance to play a tune-up game in which they trounced Bates by 20 points. Williams comes in at 5-5 in conference play making them the No. 6 seed. Williams has been perfectly average this season. They’ve lost to every team ranked higher than them and beat every team ranked lower than them. Tufts’ 7-3 record varies slightly from this pattern, but it’s still somewhat accurate. The Jumbos beat every team ranked sixth or lower as well as Amherst, but lost to Trinity, Middlebury and Wesleyan, the first, fourth, and fifth seeds.

These two were separated by a margin of just four points when they played each other, so this should be a good one. Tom Palleschi ’17 has been hot for the Jumbos of late, averaging 21.6 ppg in his last six games, and he looks to continue that streak into the NESCAC tournament tomorrow. For the Ephs, Dan Aronowitz ’17 shook off a tough three game stretch and put together three outstanding games to round out league play, averaging 23.3 ppg against Conn College, Tufts and Williams.

Last time they played: Tufts 77 – Williams 73

When Tufts and Williams matched up just a week ago in Williamstown, the ability to protect the rock was the difference in the game. Tufts turned the ball over just four times last Friday, three of which came in the first half. Williams, on the other hand, committed 15 turnovers. Quite simply put, the lack of ball control Williams demonstrated lost them the game. Tufts didn’t shoot the ball very well from the perimeter (7-24 3PT) and got to the line 10 less times than their average of 26 free throw attempts per game. They were able to pull out a close victory, in large part due to the contributions of tri-captain Stephen Haladyna ’16. On 8-17 shooting from the field and 3-6 from deep, Haladyna matched Williams’ best scorer Aronowitz bucket-for-bucket on the way to his season-high 22 points. On a night where Vinny Pace ’18, Tarik Smith ’17, and Ryan Spadaford ’16 shot the ball pretty poorly, Haladyna’s leadership propelled the Jumbos to victory. Tufts Coach Bob Sheldon said, “Stephen has been due for a breakout game. Our team has done this all year: if one or two guys aren’t playing well, somebody else steps up.”

The other big duel of the game was between Tufts center Tom Palleschi and Williams guard Cole Teal ’18, both of whom dropped 17 points, but in very different ways. The Williams offense is centered on tons of on- and off-ball screens with the goal of creating chaos for opposing defenses, which leads to open shooters. Teal was able to get free beyond the arc and light up the scoreboard on five separate occasions, providing the Ephs with a huge boost. Meanwhile, Palleschi did most of his damage in the paint. He was able to rack up 14 points from field and another three from the free throw line, but Ed Flynn ’16 did not make it easy for him. Flynn is couple inches taller than Palleschi, something the Tufts big man does not usually see, and maybe this had something to do with his 7-16 shooting performance. Palleschi missed SEVEN lefty hooks in this game, a shot that he usually makes look easy.

When I asked Williams Coach Kevin App about Palleschi’s performance, he noted, “We held Palleschi to 17 points on 16 shots, that’s about a point per shot.” Williams is going to take that 10 times out of 10. Palleschi is a force inside, and holding him to under 50 percent from the field on almost all layups/hook shots is pretty good. The way Williams packed in the paint worked pretty well defensively, as it forced Tufts to kick the ball out and beat Williams from the perimeter, a strategy which would have been successful if Tufts hadn’t scored 12 more points off of turnovers than Williams did. I expect Williams to protect the ball better tomorrow, but I also expect Tufts to shoot better from the outside, so this will be another great matchup between the two squads.

Tufts X-Factor: Guard Ryan Spadaford ’16

Overall this season, Spadaford is the third highest scorer and rebounder on the Jumbos roster, but when Tufts traveled to Williamstown last weekend Spadaford did not play well. He shot just 2-9 from the field and shot 0-6 from behind the arc. Missing good shots early, Tufts’ “shooter” clearly became frustrated as the game went on, made evident by a few forced shots. However, last weekend’s game is EXACTLY why I think that Spadaford is going to come out hot on when his team hosts the Ephs in Medford. As one of three captains leading Tufts, Spadaford is not going to let his team get upset at home due to his playing poorly. Just two weeks ago, after a poor game against Trinity in which Spadaford shot 0-4 from three and scored just two points from the field, he bounced back against Amherst and rained down 3-5 from deep. Expect Spadaford to put up a lot of shots: this streaky shooter has shown that he can be pretty deadly when he gets the crowd behind him at home.

Williams X-Factor: Bobby Casey ’19

Bobby Casey, like Spadaford, did not play particularly well last weekend. Casey also shot 2-9 from the field, and he added four turnovers to round out a subpar performance. However, Casey, also like Spadaford, showed that he has the ability to bounce back from poor performances. Just two days after the loss to Tufts, Casey dropped 16 points on 5-6 from the field and 4-4 from three-point land! Casey is young, and Tufts defense forced more mistakes out of him than any other NESCAC team has, but he has also demonstrated his ability to step up in big games. Against Amherst, Casey scored 13 points and didn’t turnover the ball once while dishing out three assists. When Williams faced Trinity just two days later, Casey dropped a season-high 17 points while recording two assists and just one turnover. The Ephs are going to need help from their role players, especially now that the Jumbos have had a chance to figure out a little more about Teal and Aronowitz. I think Casey is going to find some room to work, and this time, he’s going to take advantage of those opportunities.

Three Questions

1. Can Williams contain Tom Palleschi again?

As Coach Sheldon said, “Tom had 17 points, seven rebounds, and three blocks, and we’re not happy with his game.” That statement sums things up right pretty perfectly. Palleschi can play a lot better. I don’t see Tufts going 7-24 from outside again, so the Williams guards are not going to be able to sink into the paint to help out on Palleschi nearly as much. Frankly, I think Palleschi is going to have a mammoth of a game tomorrow.

2. Can Tufts force Cole Teal off the three-point line?

Obviously, Tufts is going to be locked in on Teal, but I’m sure they were when they faced off in Williamstown too. Teal showed off his elusiveness by ducking around option screens all over the place last weekend, and Tufts had a hard time communicating on those screens, leading to Teal sinking five threes-pointers. Basically, the answer to this question relies on a couple things: 1.) The ability of Tufts to switch more fluidly off of screens – when there is seamless switching and Teal is forced to attack the hoop, he is not nearly as effective. 2.) The ability of other guards to put the ball in the basket – obviously Aronowitz is going to get his points, but if guys like Bobby Casey, James Heskett ’19, Chris Galvin ’18 and Kyle Scadlock ’19 can score the ball efficiently, Teal will find himself open, too.

3. Will Tufts dominate the turnover battle again?

Like I noted above, Williams turned the ball over 15 times last weekend …Tufts turned it over just four times. Tufts scored 15 points off turnovers while Williams scored just three. For Williams to win this game, they NEED to take care of the basketball. It’s unlikely that the Jumbos will take care of the ball as well as they did last time, but limiting wasted possessions is vital for Coach App’s squad. Williams is a young team, but they are going to need to play wiser than their years if they are going to pull off the upset.

What to Expect

It’s no secret that Williams has a very hard test ahead of them. Tufts is a much more experienced team with some really tough players to guard in Palleschi, Pace, and Smith. Spadaford and Haladyna have shown their ability to step up to the challenge in must-win situations, and the Williams young guns like Scadlock, Casey and Heskett are going to be tested in their first NESCAC Tournament action. Aronowitz has been here before, but not as the go-to-guy, so this playoff game is going to be a bit different for him as well.

Not to be overlooked is how loud the Tufts crowd is going to be: the #6 Tufts women’s team plays before the men’s game, and if the Lady Bo’s get the crowd going with a big win (as they are favored heavily to do), Cousens Gymnasium could be a raucous arena come 4:00 pm on Saturday. The key for Williams is to come out hot to quiet the student section. If they can get on top early, then the crowd will play a minimal role in this one. Spadaford is known to be a guy who feeds off the energy of the fans, and since his shooting is going to be such a big factor in this one, Williams can’t sleepwalk their way through the first few minutes.

I think that Tufts is simply a better team than Williams, especially at home. The game last weekend could easily have been a blowout if any number of guys on Tufts hits the open shots they normally hit. I don’t think turnovers are going to play as big a factor in this one, but I do think Tufts is going to shoot the ball much more efficiently, especially Palleschi. If this one goes the way I think it will, Tufts will pull away at the end.

Prediction: Tufts 86 – Williams 72

NESCAC Quarterfinal Preview: #8 Colby at #1 Trinity

Trinity is ready to protect its house this season, something it failed to do a year ago. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)

Trinity comes into Saturday’s matchup undefeated in February, winning all four of their conference games by 10 or more points, while Colby is coming off a three-game winning streak. Despite being the top seed, this by no means will be an easy win for Trinity. This is a rematch from last year’s quarterfinal, which proved to be a challenge for Trinity as they scraped by with a 66-63 victory.

Last time they played: Trinity 62 – Colby 60

Colby hosted Trinity on January 22, when they blundered and handed the Bantams their 13th win in a 62-60 final. This came one night after the Mules upset No. 16 Amherst 66-64. This game stayed nick and tuck all the way through, the lead trading nearly 20 times. Trinity’s Shay Ajayi ’16 and Ed Ogundeko ’17 each earned a double-double accounting for 24 points and 21 rebounds. Colby’s Sam Willson ’16 and Patrick Stewart ’16 each had 17 points and five boards. The Mules were outrebounded by a margin of 39-33; this is a result of Colby’s lack of size, which also led to Trinity’s four blocks and Colby’s one. Colby did have some points to build on, as they were efficient with turnovers and personal fouls, turning it over eight times to Trinity’s 12 TO’s and registering 10 fouls as opposed to Trinity’s 15. Off the bench, Eric Gendron ’18 got hot, scoring 16 points on 50 percent shooting. Chris Turnbull ’17 also racked up 25 minutes, five boards and six points coming off the bench, which speaks to the depth of Trinity, whose bench contributed 83 minutes to Colby’s 63 minutes. Colby has some scorers, particularly in Chris Hudnut ’16, Ryan Jann ’16 and Stewart, but Jann was virtually nonexistent in this game, going 0-7 from the field, cracking his goose egg from the free throw line with 1:41 left to go in the game. While giving credit to the Bantam defense, this was a fluke performance from Jann, and he will certainly have a bigger impact on Saturday.

Trinity X-factor: Power Forward Shay Ajayi ’16

Earning a double-double in the past two matchups against Colby, Ajayi led his team to two important victories, the more important of the two coming 364 days ago in the quarterfinal at Trinity. He is one of Trinity’s senior leaders, and knows better than anyone how to perform in this situation. Besides feeling comfortable with the home-court advantage and success against Colby, Ajayi comes into this game with the hot hand shooting 57 percent from the field in February, breaking his season high in points twice; first with 26 points against Tufts, then with 29 points against Hamilton. Expect him to haul in a ton of boards and be effective from the field as the Bantams look to roll through to the semifinal.

Colby X-factor: Center Chris Hudnut ’16

Hudnut played tattered for their meeting in January, so his presence was undermined coming off the bench and accounting for eight points in 13 minutes. At 6’8″, he has the ability to rebound the ball, and is coming off a double-double against Wesleyan where he scored 19 points and had 15 rebounds. Hudnut was not on the playoff roster last year, but he has been an essential piece to the puzzle throughout his career. A healthy Hudnut may have spoiled the Bantams from attaining another #1 seed this season, but that is neither here nor there. With Hudnut in the lineup Saturday, this game becomes a lot closer and screams upset. He will help patch up the Mules hole of rebounding margin, while adding a serious offensive threat as he is 7^th in the league in scoring.

Three Questions

Can Ed Ogundeko shut down Chris Hudnut ?

Chris Hudnut can shoot the basketball, and he is crafty and smooth down low with a nice hook. Hudnut, playing hurt, scored eight points in just 13 minutes in their last meeting. Ogundeko will compete with Hudnut, who is bound to make some magic happen. On his home floor, Ogundeko will challenge him with his brute strength and athletic ability. If Hudnut gets a ton of buckets, Ogundeko will make up for it on the boards. It will be a real battle down low on Saturday and expect Ogundeko to rise to the occasion. Ogundeko is at the top of his game right now, while Hudnut is coming off an injury.

Who will show up? Colby’s shooters or Trinity’s defense?

Colby ranks first in the NESCAC in field goal percentage and third in scoring offense, boasting three of the league’s top 17 scorers. Of the starting five, each has gotten hot in the past three games scoring at least 19 points. While this is all important in winning a basketball game, they are taking on Trinity who has the best defense in the league. They rank second in scoring defense and field goal percentage defense and first in rebounding margin. I’ll say it time and time again, DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS. The Bantams depth will keep fresher legs in the game, and the defense will be breathing down Colby’s neck the whole game.

How will Trinity match Colby’s offense?

Colby’s offense clearly has a lot of threats, and if they do show up Saturday, Trinity will need to put up some points of their own. Trinity’s defense will surely limit Colby’s scoring, and they will be looking for offensive support from Jaquann Starks ’16 and Eric Gendron. Ajayi and Ogundeko will need to make their contributions as well. With the help of a healthy Chris Hudnut, it will be that much harder for the Bantams to get points in the paint.

What to Expect

Expect a battle. These two teams have met twice in the past year, and both games have been nail biters. Trinity has gotten the upper-hand each time, but the game changes when you add a healthy, beast of a center. Both teams are going to look really good, and Colby will look more like a top tier team than an eighth-seeded team. With Hudnut filling the center position, it will take away from the effectiveness of Ogundeko, who has been a substantial player all season. Hudnut has the potential to bully Ogundeko with his height, but don’t be surprised if Ogundeko pushes right back.

Trinity held Colby to a 36.4 percent field goal percentage, a far cry from Colby’s 46.8 percentage on the season. With Jann being ice cold in that game and Hudnut banged up, it will be a different Mules team that comes into Hartford on Saturday. Trinity was fortunate to beat Colby in NESCAC play this season, so they will need to be in top form to move on to the semifinal. Stewart will do his best to get in Trinity’s way as he is the best three point shooter in the ‘CAC. Trinity will be ready to fire back with the third- and fourth-best three point shooters in the league, by percentage, in point guard Andrew Hurd ’16 and Gendron.

Trinity coach James Cosgrove and Colby coach Damien Strahorn will have an amplified role in this game as it will likely be tight to the finish. Adjustments are going to be huge, especially for the Bantams who will be facing a much different Colby team than they saw in January. Though Colby flaunts a starting lineup of all seniors, they don’t have near the playoff experience that Trinity has.

Colby might get off to an early lead with Trinity making a push going into the half. The second half will be a back and forth battle that the Bantams get the best of.

Prediction: Trinity 78 – Colby 73