Month: April 2014

Let’s Make Some Predictions!

Predictions are not easy. Especially when you are dealing with a Division 3 baseball league. They inherently have a cockiness to them that says ‘I know what I am talking about’, when really I don’t. I follow box scores incessantly and hear about players secondhand, but I don’t have access to in-depth scouting reports or any type of video for me to use. This is all a way of saying that if none of these predictions come true, it doesn’t mean that I suffered from lack of trying, but lack of information. But boy are predictions FUN! Here are seven I am willing to bet my honor on.

1. Tufts will finish with less than eight losses

Sure, Tufts is 14-1 right now, so you look at this and think I am not being too bold after all. However, the last time a Tufts team lost fewer than eight games was 2010 when the Jumbos finished 34-7. They still have 20 regular season games left as well as the NESCAC playoffs and then potentially the NCAA tournament. For this prediction to come true, Tufts probably needs to go 10-2 in conference play. The key for that is having deep pitching which is something Tufts has in spades. Their staff also has some great names. Kyle Slinger ’15 is ironic because… well you get it, Andrew David ’16 and Tom Ryan ’15 are trying to disprove the notion you can’t trust a man with two first names, and Tim Superko ’17 is really a Paul Konerko and Superman mashup.

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2. Joe Jensen ’15 (Hamilton) Will Lead The League in Stolen Bases

Of all my predictions this is the one that is the safest considering Jensen led the league last year with 11 more than anybody else. So far Alex Hero ’14 has bested Jensen by one steal, 10 to nine on the season. Despite this, I remain supremely confident that Jensen will beat out Hero and all other competitors. Besides Jensen’s obvious natural ability as evidenced by his track accomplishments, Hamilton is not a very deep offense capable of huge innings. While Amherst can be content with leaving Hero on first and letting other hitters drive him in, Hamilton needs Jensen to run every time he gets on. Even if he doesn’t repeat as stolen base leader, he already has this.

3. The Home Run Race Will Actually Be Exciting to Follow

Nobody is going to confuse this thing for the Summer of ’98 with McGwire and Sosa, but I think a couple of players will hit a good amount this season (Like at least six. You have to believe me when I say that’s a lot.) I am not ready to predict who the eventual winner will be, but Griffin Tewksbury ’14 (Bates), Mike Odenwaelder ’16 (Amherst), and Jason Buco ’15 (Colby) are the frontrunners. Of course it is so impossible to guess that I would be impressed with myself if one of those three won. I think a home run in the final weekend of the season will be the deciding one, but I have no idea where or by whom it will be hit.

4. Williams Will Lose a Game Despite Scoring at Least 15 Runs

If I was going to put a bet on which specific weekend it was going to be, I would choose the Wesleyan series next weekend. Both teams are much better at hitting than pitching especially once you get into the second or third game of a series. Williams has mashed almost everything put over the plate so far, but their opponents have done a fair amount themselves. They already lost a game to Oberlin 19-11 so 15 runs in a loss is not too far away. Their offense also makes them a dangerous team to play every game even if their weak pitching is likely to keep them from making too serious a run this season.

5. The Final Weekend of Conference Play is Going to Be Awesome

The NESCAC is saving the best for last as Amherst-Wesleyan and Tufts-Bowdoin are both the final series both teams will play. The winners of both series are likely to win their divisions, but what will be interesting is the relative position of the other teams. I fully expect these four to occupy the top four spots going into the weekend, but it is possible one of them gets swept opening the door for another team to sneak into the playoffs. Besides those implications, the games should just be a lot of fun to watch in weather that has hopefully warmed up to reasonably temperatures by then.

6. Team Wins and Team Strikeouts Will Be the Most Correlated Statistics

The ability to get strikeouts isn’t crucial for pitching success, but in the NESCAC if you strike out a lot of people you greatly improve your chances of preventing wins because not too many players will hurt you with the longball. Teams that strikeout a lot of their opponents have a huge advantage. A peak at the standings shows that far and away the three top teams in strikeouts are Wesleyan, Amherst, and Tufts. While you would expect ERA or OBP to have the most correlation to wins, strikeouts denote dominance and the team that gets more of them will usually win in this conference.

7. A Baseball Game Will Be Played in Maine This Season

It hasn’t happened yet so who is to say it will happen at all? Just think about that a little.

Middlebury Struggles to a 2-8 Record in Tucson; Swept by Williams

Although the Panthers played their first ten games in sunny Tucson, their results seem more appropriate for dreary, frigid Middlebury. The Panthers finished the trip at 2-8, closing with an abysmal sweep at the hands of William, highlighted by scores of 18-5 and 20-2 in favor of the Ephs.

So here we stand, at the first checkpoint of the season, and suffice to say it has not been an auspicious start for Middlebury. To rationalize this rough start, we must go back to the questions that loomed largest entering the season; how would the team react to the quitting of Hunter Merryman and Dylan Sinnickson, and the additional losses of the graduating seniors like Mike Morris, Tom Driscoll and Tom Rafferty.

Because almost all of the personnel losses that the Panthers suffered were established position players, it was clear that younger, unproven players would have to step up, and that the pitching and defense would have to somewhat carry a probably struggling offense. On the first count, there has been some level of success.  First-year Ryan Rizzo, Sinnickson’s replacement in CF, who has speed comparable to the basketball star, had been playing very well, stealing  bases five bases in one game. However, a knee injury suffered on Friday against Williams hindered his speed and confidence at the plate in the final two games of the weekend. If the injury works itself out, the Panthers could have a stud CF on their hands for the next four seasons, but if the pain lingers then a major offensive weapon will be damaged for Middlebury. Offensively, there have been several other positives. Sophomore Johnny Luke has stepped in to claim the third spot in the lineup, hitting .375 with 10 RBI already and one long ball. Luke’s classmate Max Araya and first-year Jason Lock have also stepped up offensively, hitting .395 and .317. And obviously, senior captain Alex Kelly has been playing a starring role, batting .422 from the top two slots in the lineup.

The problems that the Panther have had have been mostly related to atrocious defense. Although Rizzo and Kelly have been solid in the outfield, the other corner outfield spot has been a revolving door, with first-year Cullen Coleman and sophomore converted-infielder Garret Werner both going around and out after some poor defense. Werner continues to bounce between the infield and outfield. His speed and strong (though often inaccurate) arm make him a good candidate for right field. Meanwhile, first-years Lukas Marble and Mike Yang have played well in limited time, and may be next in line for a shot at regular playing time. Lock, too, is a candidate for some outfield time, though more likely is that he remains the every day DH, as he was on Saturday during the team’s doubleheader. Araya played a solid game in right field, but his defense is needed far more at catcher and second base.

The infield defense, however, is where the real problems lie.  Johnny Luke, despite his powerful bat, had immense problems throwing the ball from third to fist, as did junior Danny Andrada and first-year Mason Hinckley from short. The coaching staff decided to make a statement on Wednesday by tossing starting pitcher Matt Leach in to second base mid-game, and then starting the junior for all three games against Williams at either second or short. Leach played respectively, but it is unclear whether Bob Smith intends to keep the lanky high school shortstop in the lineup or end the experiment. Araya plays an above-average second base, but is much more valuable at catcher, where first-year Vermont native Charlie Boardman has not yet made the offensive leap, and anytime you can get a wonderful defensive catcher who can also rake you ought to take advantage of that situation. In order to get him out of the left side of the infield, Luke moved over to first base, with Lock manning DH and sophomore Joe MacDonald moving to third. This could be a consistent lineup, but if there’s one thing we know about this Panthers team, it’s that positional consistency is not one of their strong points.

The pitching has also been pretty bad, quite frankly. Granted, the inconsistent defense hasn’t helped with the pitchers’ confidence, but it’s not like there have been zero earned runs given up either. The only pitcher with an ERA under 3.00 is sophomore Cooper Byrne, who padded his stats in a blowout of Cal Tech, who has won exactly one game in the last ten years. The rest of the pitching, considered to be a strength in the preseason, has been disappointing, especially junior captain and ace starter Eric Truss, who carried a 19.44 ERA back to Vermont.

Middlebury was expected to struggle offensively. Replacing the production of Sinnickson, Merryman and the departing seniors was not going to be easy, and indeed at this point looks impossible this season. But the offense has been okay, with several key cogs stepping up. The pitching, a facet of the game that is independent of the departed players, and defense, an almost primarily mental aspect of the game, have been the problems. If there’s one positive to hold to at this stage it is the Panthers’ youth, but at some point that can not be used as an excuse any longer. The current players will need to improve quickly if they hope to win some games and solidify spots for next year. If the Panthers can live up to their pitching potential and play even adequate defense, their offensive momentum could breath life into this season. If they can’t, then this Arizona trip will not be viewed as a slump, but the norm for the rest of the season.