Handicapping the Player of the Year Races

Predicting the potential Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year is about searching for trends in the voting pattern of the NESCAC coaches. Seven of the last eight Offensive POY were quarterbacks, and six of the last seven Defensive POY were linebackers. With that being said, this season looks like it could be very different.

Offensive Player of the Year

The Favorite: Running Back LaDarius Drew ’15 (Wesleyan) – Both All-NESCAC QBs from last season are gone, and Drew looks to be the feature running back on the most explosive offense in the league. He averaged 4.6 yards per carry and scored 10 touchdowns including a 167 yard performance against Bowdoin last year. However, he slowed down as the year went along, averaging under four yards per carry in three of his final four games. Also, Kyle Gibson ’15 will also take a lot of carries and was actually more productive per rush in 2013. Drew could run into a situation where the Wesleyan coaches decide to only give him about 15 carries a game (he averaged 20.5 in 2013), letting Gibson run more, and keeping Drew from putting up big numbers.

Contenders:

Quarterback Jesse Warren ’15 (Wesleyan) – If carries are split by Drew and Gibson then Warren could win if he repeats his efficiency from last season but with slightly more production. Another 15:3 TD:INT ratio will give him a good shot.

Wide Receiver Luke Duncklee ’15 (Colby) – The most productive receiver in the NESCAC will collect a lot of credit if Gabe Harrington ’17 has a seamless transition to the starting role. Fellow receiver Nick Joseph ’15 will also need a good season to make sure teams can’t key on Duncklee.

Quarterback Matt Cannone ’16 (Bates) – After seeing Cannone in action in the scrimmage against Colby, it was clear the junior has made major improvements to his game especially in the passing game. He will rack up both passing and rushing yards in the Bates offense.

Running Back Alex Scyocurka ’14 (Williams) – Opponents keyed on Scyocurka a lot meaning he averaged only 3.3 yards per carry, but he should be able to punish defenses with a more balanced attack this season, and he’s as healthy as he’s ever been, so perhaps he can get closer to the 5.3 yards per rush he averaged in 2012. An improvement as a team will also help his prospects, though he has to cut down on the four fumbles from a year ago.

Wide Receiver Gene Garay ’15 (Amherst)-  The only other receiver who looks to have a shot at POY honors is Garay. The senior was the leading receiver for Amherst last season and should see even more targets with Jake O’Malley graduated. He is also helped by the potential for big plays in the return game.

The Darkhorse: Running Back Chudi Iregbulem ’15 (Trinity) – Iregbulem has not seen the field very much because of all the talent in front of him, but now he steps to the forefront. He will get the majority share of carries in tandem with Jacob Rivers ’15. His 7.2 yards per carry average is inflated somewhat because it came at the end of blowouts against tired defenses. Consider his potential a tacit compliment to the entire Trinity offensive line who will deserve much of the credit if he has a great season.

Defensive Player of the Year

The Favorite: Defensive End James Howe ’16 (Williams)

Howe was the only sophomore selected to the All-NESCAC First Team in 2013. He tallied 55 tackles, which is impressive for a lineman, especially given the fact that teams would choose to run the opposite way if given the choice, seven more than the next-highest total by a lineman, Colby defensive end Caleb Harris ’15. Howe led the league in sacks with 10, 2.5 more than Harris, and was one behind Amherest linebacker Chris Tamasi ’15 with 17 tackles for loss. Usually linebackers get the most recognition because they are asked to do the most on the field, but Howe is on another level compared to his peers. His pressure and dominance on the line makes the linebackers’ and defensive backs’ jobs easier, and for that he comes into 2014 as the favorite to bring home this honor.

Contenders:

Linebacker Tim Patricia ’16 (Middlebury) It’s been noted before, but the tackle numbers on defenses like Middlebury and Tufts are inflated because their offenses run so many plays. Nevertheless, Patricia is a playmaker. The former Rookie of the Year has been a force in the Middlebury for the Panthers since day one. It’s not his athletic tools that make him a great tackler, but his football IQ. Proof that his numbers are not just a product of high play totals: Patricia accounted for almost 14 percent of Middlebury’s tackles and over 13 percent of solos. Leading tackler Joey Cleary ’14 tallied just over 16 percent of Bowdoin’s tackles and just under 16 percent of solos.

Safety Jake Bussani ’14 (Wesleyan) The only thing that might keep Bussani from making a run for DPOY honors is the wealth of talent surrounding him on defense, but the graduate has made the All-NESCAC First Team in three straight seasons. His stats weren’t as impressive as in the previous two seasons, but that doesn’t mean that his play has tapered off.

Defensive End Caleb Harris ’15 (Colby) We already mentioned Harris above, but it’s worth reiterating that Harris was the cornerstone of the best run defense in the league last season, and was only six off the pace for most tackles on his own team.

Linebacker Chris Tamasi ’15 (Amherst) Much like the next name on this list, what sets Tamasi apart is his ability to penetrate the backfield. Tamasi led the NESCAC with 18 tackles for loss and had four sacks, tying with teammate Ned Deane ’15 for the most among linebackers.

Linebacker Mike Weatherby ’14 (Trinity) A year after making the All-NESCAC First Team for the first time, Weatherby is back for a fifth year at the heart of the Bantams defense. Weatherby is great at stopping the ball carrier behind the line of scrimmage, as he racked up just one sack in 2013 but 11 tackles for loss.

Cornerback Brian Dones ’15 (Trinity) It’s tough to leave out Dones’ teammate, safety Mike Mancini ’15, but the corner might be the best pass defender in the league. His three interceptions and 11 pass breakups were both tops in the NESCAC, and his 1.8 pass breakups per game was tied for 11th in the nation. Teams might choose to throw away from Dones this year, but expect him to still make some big plays.

The Darkhorse: Safety/Linebacker Gilbert Brown ’15 (Bates) Brown fills the “down safety” position in Bates’ 3-3 stack defense, a position that requires a great deal of versatility. This allows Brown to be a factor in both the run and pass game, and on occasion he will be called on to create pressure on the quarterback. He racked up 42 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss, one sack, two interceptions and two pass breakups in 2013. Bates’ defense should be much improved this season with a bunch of starters returning, and Brown could elevate his game and become a game plan player around the NESCAC.

Anyone you think we missed? Let us know in the comments.

Wesleyan Team Preview – Same Team, Greater Expectations

2013 Record: 7-1

Returning Starters: 19 (eight offense, 10 defense, one specialist)

Offensive Overview:

You won’t find a more complete team on either side of the ball in the NESCAC. Eight All-NESCAC honorees return to the Cardinal lineup, four on offense. The Cardinals will lean heavily on the run, as they rushed 353 times last year compared to just 174 pass attempts. LaDarius Drew ’15 ran for 94.5 yards per game last year, and his “back-up,” if it’s fair to call it that, Kyle Gibson ’15 earned Second Team honors by rushing for 73.4 yards per game. If miraculously either of those two workhorses stumble, Lou Stevens ’17 averaged 5.9 yards per carry over his 40 touches. Quarterback Jesse Warren ’15 wasn’t an All-NESCAC recipient, but he had the highest completion percentage and yards per attempt in the league and was second to Mac Foote in TD passes. His only three interceptions came in the season finale at Trinity. Josh Hurwitz ’15 and Jay Fabien ’15 are both in their fourth years as starting receivers. Tight end Jonathan Day ’15 is another All-NESCAC honoree. He serves primarily as a run blocker but was fourth on the squad in receptions last year. The offensive line is stacked as well. Pat DiMase ’15 (Second Team) and Blake Cunningham ’16 line up at tackle, while there is some competition for starting time on the interior, although Taylor Bishop ’15, Shane Scannell ’15 and Austin Frank ’15 are the frontrunners and each has game experience.

Defensive Overview:

The returning depth on the defensive side might even be more impressive than that of the offense. Linebacker Myers Beaird graduated, but starters are back everywhere else. Furthermore, the Cardinals like to rotate players on defense and keep legs fresh, so players up and down the roster have in-game experience. Nik Powers ’15 and grad student Jordan Otis line up at defensive end. Ibraheem Khadar ’15 and Mitch Godfrey ’15 will be on the interior. A host of others will rotate through the defensive line, including Alex Sakhno ’15, Greg Blaize ’16 and Jordan Stone ’17. The linebacking corps is a strength, with leading tackler Alex Daversa-Russo ’16 and Gregg Kelley ’15 back. The third spot will be filled by Jake Siciliano ’15, who opened 2013 as the starter but it was then discovered that he had a stomach tumor. Siciliano’s injury made room for Daversa-Russo in the line up, and having both on the field in 2014 will make the Wesleyan defense that much scarier. In the defensive backfield, grad student Jake Bussani will make a run for his fourth straight All-NESCAC First Team award. Vincent Davis ’15 will be the opposite corner. At safety, two-sport stud Donnie Cimino ’15 returns and is joined by Justin Sanchez ’17 who started in 2013. Lastly, Devon Carrillo ’17 will be on the field as a safety-linebacker hybrid. Carrillo was the team’s second-leading tackler, and was awarded All-NESCAC honors as a return man for his 25.7 yard average on kickoffs. In reality, the defense has more than 10 starters returning. Add Siciliano and Carrillo to the tally, and there are 12 players back who could be considered starters.

Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics
Clockwise from top left: Donnie Cimino; Jonathan Day; Jay Fabien; Jake Bussani – Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics

Three Big Questions

1. Can Wesleyan Win the Big One?

After rolling through the first half of the season, outscoring its opponents 163-22, Wesleyan saw some stiffer competition in the final four weeks, and squeaked out victories over its Little Three rivals by a total of eight points. Then disaster struck, Warren failed to take care of the ball as he had all season, the defense imploded, and Trinity closed out its season with a 40-10 beat down of the would-be outright champs. The Cardinals are out to prove that they have become the preeminent program in the NESCAC, and that they can beat big brother down the road in Hartford.

2. Will the Little Three Crown Stay in Middletown?

After a 43-year drought, Wesleyan finally defeated Amherst and Williams in the same season, earning the Little Three championship. Though as mentioned above, the victories were slim. Amherst essentially threw away that matchup with three interceptions and a fumble lost, allowing the Cardinals to get out of Amherst with a 20-14 win, while a late field goal was the difference in Wesleyan’s 16-14 defeat of Williams. Wesleyan will be the favorite in both games but victories will not come easily.

3. Who Steps in for Departed Placekicker Sebastian Aguirre?

Aguirre was arguably the best placekicker in the NESCAC last year, and indeed made the All-NESCAC Second Team for his efforts, and as noted above he kicked the game winner that sealed the Little Three title for the Cardinals. Options to replace Aguirre include backup QB Ike Fuchs ’16, who came into camp atop the depth chart, Corey Phillips ’17 and newcomer John Henry-Carey ’18.

Team MVP: LaDarius Drew. You know that the Cardinals are going to pound opponents with the run game, and Drew will be the team’s workhorse. Expect both him and Gibson to be at the top of the leaderboards in every rushing category. Oh by the way, if healthy Drew will easily become the school’s all-time leader in rushes, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns.

Biggest Game of the Year: Nov. 8 against Trinity

Is there any doubt? These are probably the two best teams in the conference, they are a 25-minute drive up 91 apart from one another, and Wesleyan still has a sour taste in its mouth from last year when the Bantams took the Cardinals’ NESCAC title and divided it into three parts. It’s not impossible that both teams could be undefeated heading into this game.

Best Tweet of the Offseason: The Wesleyan Football Twitter account (@Wes_Football) kept its followers up to date on what a lot of the Cardinals were doing this summer. Kyle Gibson interned at JPMorgan and was offered a full-time job upon graduation, Josh Hurwitz worked with the Celtics organization and Mitch Godfrey was with the Chatham Anglers of the Cape Cod League. But our favorite has to be this series of tweets about how LaDarius Drew spent his summer.

The Cardinals are locked and loaded. Anything short of a NESCAC title will be a disappointment for Wesleyan.

What the Best Games of 2013 Could Mean for 2014

Obviously the best place to start when prognosticating for 2014 is last season. We don’t really have anything else to go on. Yet remember these games can only tell us so much. A large amount of randomness is at play especially with 18-22 year olds.

Without any further ado, here are the five most important games of last season along with what stories and statistics carry importance into this season.

5. November 2: Williams 14 (2-6) at Wesleyan 16 (7-1)

Wesleyan survived a major scare in this game as their offense had major struggles against Williams. The only Cardinal touchdown of the game came on a one play four yard drive after a freak series of events led to Williams punting from their one yard line. Donnie Cimino ’15 returned the punt all the way to the four yard line, and LaDarius Drew ’14 ran it in the very next play. A late Williams rally fell short when Jake Bussani ’14 intercepted a pass with less than three minutes remaining.

What it means: People point to the improvement Williams made each week when they talk about a possible rebound this year. This game stayed close mostly because Wesleyan could not convert in the red zone settling for three field goals. Still Williams got nothing from their running game and lost the turnover battle by 2. Combine that with the game being at Williams this season, and this could be the hardest game on Wesleyan’s schedule.

4. October 19: Wesleyan 20 (7-1) at Amherst 14 (7-1)

People still didn’t quite believe that Wesleyan was for real when they faced off against Amherst. After this game everyone knew the Cardinals were a threat to run the table. Though Amherst slowed down Drew and Kyle Gibson ’15 a good deal, Jesse Warren ’15 played flawlessly while his Amherst counterparts at QB struggled. Wesleyan was up 20-7 before Amherst scored a touchdown in the fourth, but Max Lippe ’15 threw an interception to seal it for Wesleyan.

What it means: The same reason why Wesleyan should worry about the Williams game should comfort them for the Amherst one: it will be in Middletown. A lot of other factors however, point to Amherst having a better shot in 2014. The 2013 game is a hard one to figure out. Wesleyan won the turnover battle 4-0, time of possession 35:56-24:04, and had three fewer penalties for thirty less yards. Yet Amherst won the first down battle 19-14, third down efficiency (Amherst 7-14, Wesleyan 3-15), and total yardage 355-310.

This was the game where Amherst’s quarterback struggles were most apparent, and it cost them the game. Head Coach EJ Mills has said he hopes and expects one of Lippe or Alex Berluti ’17 to grab the reins this year. If they do that, then the Amherst offense will be able to offset any possible drop in play from what was a fantastic Jeff defense in 2013.

3. October 26: Trinity 24 (6-2) at Middlebury 27 (7-1)

This was another wildly entertaining game that came down to Mac Foote ’14 making all the throws in the final drive before Nate Leedy ’17 sealed the win with an interception as time expired. The game appeared to be over when Middlebury turned the ball over on downs with less than three minutes remaining. The Panther defense stood tall and forced a punt before Foote took over. The two teams combined for eight attempted fourth down conversions. It took Foote 64 attempts to throw for his 310 yards because he only completed 29 throws. Evan Bunker ’14 had one of his worst games as a Bantam rushing for 28 yards on 13 attempts.

What it means: The biggest reason Trinity lost was ten penalties for 115 yards including four that lead to first downs for Middlebury. They controlled the line as 23 of Middlebury’s 100 rushing yards came on a broken play where Middlebury punter Michael Dola ’15 rushed for a first down. Middlebury will have to rely much more on their running game, but they will struggle against the best defenses in the NESCAC.

Another big takeaway was that Puzzo really carried the Trinity offense in this game. He made plays with his arm and legs accounting for 287 yards of offense. With him, the 2014 Trinity offense could have been very good, but now there a lot of questions surrounding that side of the ball for the Bantams.

2. November 2: Trinity 16 (6-2) at Amherst 17 (7-1)

Trinity had just lost a heartbreaker to Middlebury, but this was even more devastating. The Bantams allowed only 56 yards rushing, had seven more first downs, and held the ball for 36:44. Yet this was a close game that, in the words of Lee Corso, came down to special teams. Amherst converted a short field after a poor punt into a 44 yard Phillip Nwosu ’15 field goal. Then after Trinity scored a touchdown to go down one, Ben Rosenblatt ’17 missed the extra point to give Amherst the stunning victory.

What it means: 2013 was a down year for Trinity, but the two games that they lost were by the thinnest of margins. Consider the fact that Trinity only went 3-15 on third down conversions yet still outgained Amherst by 113 yards. Trinity did just about everything you want to do when you are on the road except win the turnover battle.

Amherst relied so heavily on their defense in 2013 to make plays in big moments. Landrus Lewis ’14 and Max Dietz ’14 are both gone after snagging three interceptions apiece, but a lot of talent remains including corner Jaymie Spears ’16 and safety Jimmy Fairfield-Sonn ’16. If Amherst is once again hard to throw on, then their defense should be elite given the amount of returning talent in the front seven.

1. November 9: Wesleyan 10 (7-1) at Trinity 40 (6-2)

Trinity blitzed Wesleyan in what many expected to be a crowning day for the Cardinals as the only undefeated team in the NESCAC. Instead, Trinity dominated in all facets of the game on their way to a blowout. The Trinity defense held Wesleyan to under 100 yards on the ground while intercepting Warren three times. Meanwhile, Trinity ran at ease against the Wesleyan front seven averaging over five yards a carry and 249 in the aggregate.

Warren proved many of his detractors right as he failed to rise to the occasion when Wesleyan needed him. The back-breaking sequence for Wesleyan came late in the second quarter down 16-3. After a Trinity field goal, Wesleyan had the ball on their 37 with 3:07 left. Since Wesleyan would get the ball back to start the second half, a score here would have put them right back in the game. The play sequence went incompletion, completion for loss of a yard, interception on third down. Trinity converted the short field into a touchdown on a trick play pass from Evan Bunker to QB Puzzo. They never looked back after their 23-3 lead at half.

What it means: This game, like most others, was won in the trenches where Trinity just walloped Wesleyan. Drew didn’t have one run of more than ten yards and averaged only 2.9 yards in the game. Both Amherst and Williams got close to beating the Cardinal earlier in the year by completing half of the equation and slowing down Wesleyan’s run game. Trinity was the only team that was also able to run the ball up the gut for consistent gains. A large part of the running success came from the ability of Puzzo to rush for 53 yards, but obviously Puzzo is no longer on the roster. Presumed starter Henry Foye ’15 barely ran in 2013.

Unfortunately most teams don’t have the players in order to compete with Wesleyan in a slug ’em out fight. Trinity might not even be able to this year. In fact one of the biggest questions entering the season is just how much we should take away from this game. It’s pretty clear Trinity was ready to play, and they executed their game plan to perfection, but we just don’t know if Wesleyan was over-matched or simply didn’t show up. If it was only an off-game for Wesleyan, then we should expect the Cardinals to run through the NESCAC this season.