The Jumbos have a lot to celebrate after destroying two NESCAC opponents this weekend. (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)
I hate to say I told you so … but I did. Of the 10 NESCAC games played this weekend, I correctly picked the winner in eight of those ball games, and one of the games I got wrong – Middlebury over Wesleyan – was in my favor anyway because my team won.
All gloating aside, it was a great weekend of NESCAC basketball for prognosticators and lay folk alike. Predictably, Amherst asserted their dominance over rival Williams, and on the other end Hamilton slumped to an 0-2 start, although both were close games. In the middle, though, there were any number of surprises. Middlebury beats Wesleyan, then loses to Conn? And Conn is 2-0? And so is Tufts, after scoring 194 points and allowing less than 70 per game? And the Ghost of Graham Safford ’15 inhabited Shawn Strickland’s ’18 body on Friday night? Vinny Pace ’18 is a star? Ed Ogundeko ’17 is a scoring machine? This is insanity!
Stock Up:
Tufts PG Vinny Pace ’18
Pace has been putting up good scoring numbers all season and it’s gone relatively unnoticed around here. No longer. The point man had two of his best games of the season and in limited minutes because both contests were blowouts. He’s become the main initiator of the Tufts offense, handling the ball and starting the motion, which is a huge testament to his abilities with a playmaker like Tarik Smith ’17 on the roster. Pace has good size and has been finishing around the rim, while also shooting over 40 percent from deep while taking 5.0+ three pointers per game. He’s our pick for Player of the Week.
Conn College
The Camels were 0-10 in the NESCAC a year ago, and now are miraculously 2-0. They beat Hamilton and Middlebury by a combined five points, but wins are wins, after all. They were able to outlast Hamilton down the stretch by making free throws and shut down the Panthers defensively on the last possession to prevent a game-winner from Middlebury. For a team that is relying heavily on a couple of freshmen, the poise they showed in their first two conference games goes a long way towards making the Camels a contender. They still have a long way to go before they can be considered serious threats to the top tier, but this was a good start.
Middlebury Freshmen
I’ve got to give some love to the youngest Panthers. Swingman Zach Baines ’19, guard Hilal Dahleh ’19 and forward Eric McCord ’19 all played significant minutes this weekend, averaging between 17.5 and 23.0 mpg. It began in the first half against Wesleyan on Friday when the Cards opened up the game with a double digit lead. Coach Jeff Brown immediately went to the youngsters, and they showed up. The Panthers have a top four that they can rely on – F/C Matt Daley ’16 and guards Jake Brown ’17, Matt St. Amour ’17 and Jack Daly ’18 – but Coach Brown is still hunting for the right combination of guys to share minutes with that unit. Perhaps he’s come a bit closer to finding that mix.
Stock Down
Bates Defense
Bates did well to slow down an explosive Colby team, but I’m more focused on the second game of the weekend. Lucas Hausman ’16 now has 43.0 ppg in his last two games against Bates. Excuse me? I don’t know who to blame. I would have expected Mike Boornazian ’16 to be tasked with stopping Hausman, but he wasn’t matched up with the NESCAC POY very often, perhaps allowing him to preserve his energy for the offensive end. The Bobcats could have tried more zone, to stop Hausman from getting eight looks from deep, and they sent him to the line 17 times, which is not a good strategy. Sometimes, great players just beat good defenses, but when it happens two match ups in a row it no longer looks like a fluke.
Colby Offense
As mentioned above, the Mules’ severely underperformed this weekend, particularly on the offensive end. Colby scored under 77 points just once in the Mules’ first 11 games, then put up 69 and 65 on the weekend. Of course, the defensive intensity is turned up in NESCAC play, but Colby failed to rise to the occasion. On the season, Colby is averaging 84.4 ppg on 48.5 percent shooting but shot just 40.0 percent this weekend. Their opponents, Bates and Tufts, have one thing in common – a dominant interior defender. Chris Hudnut ’16 struggled for the Mules, and perhaps Colby just isn’t equipped to compete with a team that has a strong front court.
I don’t feel like picking on anyone in particular, so we’ll end the stock report there. Don’t worry, we’ll have plenty of mean things to say in the coming weeks.
PG BJ Davis ’16 has blow-by speed … just ask Jayde Dawson. (Courtesy of Rob Matson, Amherst College Office of Communications)
Editor’s Note: Things can be a little confusing now that the season is underway. Consider the rest of our previews as season predictions based off of a compilation of conversations with coaches and players and observations from the first couple of games. All statistics that appear next to players’ names are from the 2014-15 season.
After a whirlwind offseason spent hosting SNL, flirting with starlets and just generally enjoying the incredible international recognition that stems from winning the NESCAC championship, Wesleyan has come back down to earth and is ready to compete for the top prize again. The Cardinals used a balanced attack to overcome a rough start to league play last year (Middlebury made them look like my JV middle school squad last season in Week 2 of the NESCAC schedule) to beat top teams Trinity and Amherst on their way to the championship. Four Cardinals averaged more than 10 points per game last season; guards BJ Davis ’16, Harry Rafferty ’15 and Jack Mackey ’16, as well as forward Joseph Kuo ’15.
And therein lies the strength of Wesleyan’s 2015-2016 unit; every single one of those players is back. This “core four” gives Wesleyan a surplus of experience, something that is rare in the youth-driven NESCAC. However, many of the teams that Wesleyan beat last season have retooled significantly in the offseason. Williams is 3-0 this season, with the best freshman class in the league already paying dividends. Wesleyan’s finals opponent, Amherst, is loaded, with players like Johnny McCarthy ’18 (the hype train keeps on rolling) who were a little raw last year stepping up in a big way. Wesleyan returns most of their talent from last year, but they are in danger of the league growing up around them while they stay rooted in one spot.
2014-2015 Record:
19-9 overall; 5-5 NESCAC (t-4th); won NESCAC Championship over Amherst 74-70 in OT; lost to Skidmore 81-66 in the first round of the NCCA Tournament
Head Coach: Joe Reilly, 8th season, 90-84 (.517)
Returning Starters: Six
G BJ Davis (11.5 ppg, 3.5 apg, .385% 3PT) G Harry Rafferty (10.5 ppg, 2.8 rpg .379% 3PT) G Jack Mackey (11.6 ppg, 4.2 rpg, .381% 3PT) F Joseph Kuo (11.9 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 1.5 bpg) F Rashid Epps (7.9 ppg, 6.7 rpg, .593% FG) F Joe Edmonds (9.0 ppg, 3.5 rpg, .441% 3PT)
All of the above players started at least 17 games last season. As you can see from these numbers, Wesleyan’s hallmark in 2014-2015 was a balanced scoring attack with a healthy dose of three-point shooting from dangerous three guard lineups. However, their most deadly three-point shooter from last season, Joe Edmonds ’16 at 41 percent, has been out for most of the preseason with a foot injury and has yet to get back on the court. Additionally, the consistently dangerous Jack Mackey has been struggling to overcome a variety of injuries. He’s played good minutes so far, but come off the bench in two of the Cards’ three games and is struggling shooting the ball at just 5-23 overall and 3-17 from three. This has led to a shakeup in the experience-laden Cardinals’ starting five.
Projected Starting Lineup:
PG BJ Davis (11.5 ppg, 3.5 apg, .385% 3PT)
With Edmonds and his scoring touch gone for greener pastures and Mackey struggling mightily, BJ Davis becomes even more crucial to the Cardinals’ success. Davis is playing a ridiculous 35.3 mpg early on. One of the most talented and athletic guards in the league (if you get the chance, try to find his tip slam against Middlebury on YouTube. Oofta), he was excellent last season at playing within the system. However, this season he will have a longer leash, and it could be very exciting watch him explore his new freedom.
SG Harry Rafferty (10.5 ppg, 2.8 rpg .379% 3PT)
Rafferty was a breakout star last year for the Cardinals, emerging in his sophomore season as a consistent scoring threat and excellent perimeter defender. He stays within himself beautifully, as the entire Wesleyan team does, and will be a crucial cog in Wesleyan’s machine this year. In their first three games he has upped his scoring to 12.7 points per game, and has six steals already on the season.
SF PJ Reed ’16 (2.9 ppg, 2.0 rpg, .311% FG)
A junior who played very sparingly last season, Reed has stepped into the starting lineup due to the struggles and health of Jack Mackey. However, Mackey has continued to play heavy minutes off the bench while Reed is simply a placeholder. This is a spot in Wesleyan’s starting lineup that will need to be resolved for them to compete in the top tier of NESCAC this season. I would expect Mackey to figure it out once he is fully healthy and return to the starting lineup, with Edmonds rotating with him once he recovers from his own injury, but if he doesn’t, Reed has good size at 6’5” and could see heavier playing time as the year goes on. Additionally, Wesleyan has one of the top freshman guard recruits in the league in Salim Greene ’19, who will press both of those players for playing time once he recovers from a concussion suffered in the preseason (it seems like Wesleyan should be a little more subdued in their preseason intensity.)
PF Joseph Kuo (11.9 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 1.5 bpg)
Kuo and Epps combine to give Wesleyan one of the staunchest defenses in the league, particularly around the rim. However, Kuo is no specialist. He led the team in scoring last season, and has good touch around the rim as well as on mid-range jump shots. He and Epps both benefit greatly from drives and dishes from Wesleyan’s killer rotation of smart guards, something that shouldn’t change this season with the emergence of Davis and Rafferty. He has struggled somewhat finishing this year, shooting only 40 percent so far, but that should level out as Wesleyan’s rotations get more consistent.
C Rashid Epps (7.9 ppg, 6.7 rpg, .593% FG)
Epps is the centerpiece of Wesleyan’s defense. A cagey defender with strong instincts and athleticism, any scoring Wesleyan got from Epps last season was a bonus. However, his impressive shooting percentage from last season shows his good touch around the rim, and this season so far he has upped his scoring to 10.3 points per game, while still rebounding well and shooting at a 61 percent clip. Epps is the kind of solid, consistent center that teams like Middlebury and Williams, who often get killed inside despite solid perimeter talent, would love to have.
Breakout Player: BJ Davis
It’s an overstatement to say that Davis was held back by Wesleyan’s balance last year. He still averaged nearly 12 points per game, and was able to put the team on his back (a la Greg Jennings) several times. Also, he got a NESCAC championship ring out of the deal, so I doubt he’s complaining. However, he always seemed to have First Team talent that would never be backed up by his numbers. This season thus far has seen a change in that. Davis has stepped out from the crowd to the tune of 23.3 points per game on 57.6 percent shooting from the field and 56.3 percent from three. Obviously those shooting percentages are not sustainable, but his quickness and athleticism have combined with leadership and experience to create a very dangerous weapon. And with Mackey starting slow, the floor is Davis’ to carry the team more than he ever needed to last season. He looks to be very ready.
Everything:
For all to TL;DR people out there, here’s the summary of Wesleyan’s chances in 2015-2016. They return most of their scoring from last year, and added a potential game changer in Salim Greene. However, Greene is a freshman and is struggling with a concussion. For them to succeed this season and possibly repeat as NESCAC champions, they will need the players from last year to both stay consistent and improve to keep up with a young and talented league. In the first three games of the season, this has been a mixed bag. A bad opening loss to Lyndon State showed the worst-case scenario for the Cardinals; they didn’t have any players explosive enough to get them a hoop when they needed it. However, the next two games featured BJ Davis shoving that idea somewhere dark and out of the way to the tune of 23 and 31 points in two wins. If Davis is truly making a First Team leap in his senior season, Wesleyan will get their experienced leaders Mackey and Edmonds back from injury and reserve a spot in the top tier with Amherst and Trinity. If he’s going to come back to earth, then the Cardinals’ brand of stolid balance and consistency might not be enough in the ever-shifting NESCAC basketball universe.
Cliché alert: sports is a copycat business, and the NESCAC has taken note of the Cards’ championship recipe. Wesleyan won by relying on a three-guard set and a short, six-man rotation. Expect other teams to start copying that strategy. Middlebury will roll out Jack Daly ’18, Jake Brown ’17 and Matt St. Amour ’17 all at once. Williams is basically playing with four guards and C Edward Flynn ’16 for stretches with a couple of freshmen forwards coming off of the bench. Wesleyan also won because their best players played the whole game. No other team relied so heavily on so few players. Mackey, Davis, Rafferty, Kuo, Edmonds and Epps all played at least 22.1 mpg last year – Chris Tugman ’15 was next with 11.2 mpg. Coach Reilly is staying with that strategy this season. Davis, Mackey, Rafferty, Kuo and Epps are all over 26.0 mpg. F Nathan Krill ’18 is at 13.7 mpg. Once Edmonds comes back, he will jump back into the six-man rotation, and Greene could stretch that to a seven-man, but that’s still a shorter bench than most teams. It’s a risky strategy, and the Cardinals will need to get healthy and stay healthy in order to be successful.
PG Jake Brown ’17 is the engine that makes the Panthers go. (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)
Editor’s Note: Things can be a little confusing now that the season is underway. Consider the rest of our previews as season predictions based off of a compilation of conversations with coaches and players and observations from the first couple of games. All statistics that appear next to players’ names are from the 2014-15 season.
One word describes Middlebury’s 2014-15 season: disappointment. I know that’s terribly harsh, but there was no one around the league that would have predicted that the Panthers would miss the NESCAC tournament for the first time since 2005 – especially after the team’s 9-0 start to the year. Once NESCAC play began, though, it was all downhill, and fast. Panther-killer Graham Safford ’15 once again finished off Middlebury in the NESCAC opener. In 2013 Safford drilled a three-pointer with 11 seconds left to steal a win in Pepin Gymnasium, and last season it was four made free throws down the stretch to ice a home win for Bates. Next came the Tufts Jumbos, who sent the Panthers back to Vermont with a 80-63 loss.
The Panthers finished 17-7 and 4-6 in conference. The rotation lost forwards Hunter Merryman ’15 and Dylan Sinnickson ’15 (now playing with UVM), who accounted for 40 percent of Middlebury’s points last season. Without those two in the lineup, there is a serious lack of outside shooting, and the biggest question will be how to replace two 6’5″ bodies with range and the athleticism to get to the rim.
Middlebury’s reign of dominance – eight consecutive NESCAC appearances from 2007-14; six consecutive NCAA appearances from 2008-13; NESCAC titles in 2009 and 2011; an Elite Eight trip in 2013; a Final Four in 2011 – feels pretty far in the past these days. The Panthers are going to be fighting to finish in the top half of the NESCAC this season.
2014-15 Record:
17-7 overall; 4-6 NESCAC (t-8th); did not qualify for NESCAC tournament
Coach: Jeff Brown, 19th season, 291-174 (.626)
Returning Starters: Two
PG Jake Brown ’17 (7.2 ppg, 6.3 apg, 1.5 apg) SG Matt St. Amour ’17 (12.5 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 2.8 apg)
This should really say 2.5 returning starters. The “.5” comes from F Connor Huff ’16. Huff had a 12-game stretch last season where he started every game, and early on this year he’s come off the bench in the Panthers’ first two contests but played 19.5 mpg. Huff is a bit undersized in the front court, but plays with heart and has a high basketball IQ. That’s about as cliché as it gets, but Huff is dependable and you know he will play smart basketball. He’s efficient from the field and from the stripe and will rarely turn the ball over.
Projected Starting Five:
PG Jake Brown
Brown is a traditional pass-first point guard. His quickness and ball handling skills are unmatched, and with the way uncle and Head Coach Jeff Brown likes his teams to run, Jake Brown is perfect for this offense. He learned under the tutelage of future Middlebury Hall of Famer Joey Kizel ’13, and even though Brown is a much different style of player, he’s made this team his the way Kizel once did. I think he’s the most critical piece to the Panthers’ success, but the passing, running and defense are a given. It’s the shooting that’s the issue. Middlebury fans have heard about how great of a scorer JB was in high school, but he seemed to have lost his jumper before arriving in Middlebury. He’s worked extremely hard on that part of his game, and the early returns are great – Brown is 10-16 (62.5% FG) from the floor and 2-3 from deep. He needs to be an outside threat to make up for the losses of Merryman and Sinnickson.
SG Jack Daly ’18 (2.2 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 2.7 apg)
The two and three guard positions are interchangeable, and if you want to stretch the definitions a little bit, the point guard position is fluid, too. Middlebury will probably run with four guards on the floor at points this season, and they’re able to do it because they have another true point in Jack Daly. At this point, Daly is a bit like a Brown-light. He was hampered by an ankle injury for most of last season, which lead to some pretty poor shooting numbers, but is now healthy and has stepped into a major role. He’s a strong perimeter defender, too, which might provide Coach Brown with an opportunity to take Jake Brown off the toughest match ups sometimes, which could further lead to an offensive boost for the younger Brown.
SF Matt St. Amour
St. Amour is quite the enigma in Vermont. A two-time Gatorade Player of the Year and 2,000-point scorer in high school, coming from a high school so small it wouldn’t even fill up an intro econ class at Middlebury, he couldn’t have had much higher expectations. St. Amour got a good amount of playing time as a freshman, but he struggled to adapt to the college game and his shooting percentages were ugly. Then his season ended prematurely with a torn ACL in February. His sophomore campaign started off decently, but it was a miracle that he was even able to play 20-plus minutes just nine months after blowing out his ACL. It was an up-and-down year for St. Amour … until the last six games of the season. Something clicked for the sophomore, and, in the words of Coach Brown, St. Amour “dominated”. For Middlebury to be competitive in the NESCAC this season, St. Amour might have to be the team’s top scorer and be a multi-faceted threat on offense. He has the ability to shoot from deep, mid-range, and get to the hoop. He has a tendency to get into awkward positions when finishing, though, which has resulted in some brutal landings. If he can stay on the floor, 2015-16 could be St. Amour’s coming out party.
PF Nick Tarantino ’18 (3.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 0.9 bpg)
Tarantino reminds me of the guy below, C Matt Daley ’16. Tarantino has a bit more range in his game, but they’re both long and athletic. Right now, Tarantino is effectively splitting time with Huff, and I think that continues pretty much all year, but with such a guard-heavy rotation, it’s almost necessary to keep Tarantino’s height out there on the floor. At 6’7″, he can adjust shots and discourage interior passing. Can he guard thicker big men, though? And will he be able to slow down the stretch-4’s of the league? I don’t envision that being much of a problem, because there aren’t really many of those guys established in the league right now (maybe Williams’ Kyle Scadlock ’19 is that guy, but only time will tell), but it could definitely be a problem in non-league games.
C Matt Daley (8.3 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 56% FG)
Matt Daley, the perennial X-factor for the Panthers. I don’t think that he’s had a month during his entire career where he’s been healthy the entire time. He dealt with a lower-body soft tissue injury at the start of the preseason, but for now, at least, the athletic big is cleared and ready to go. Daley has a lot of finesse in his offensive game – think Tom Palleschi ’17, but more style – but he can get feisty, too. His frame reads as pretty slender (6’8″ 215 lbs), but he’s not an easy matchup for any opponent. My favorite example – the Middlebury game versus Tufts two years ago. Daley was – predictably – battling back from an injury, and so was only able to play 15 minutes, but 10 of those were some of the hardest fought minutes in the second of a game that I’ve ever seen. Hunter Sabety went 8-8 in the first half with a bevy of defenders failing to stop him. He went 0-1 in the second half and got so upset with Daley’s defense that he nearly spear tackled the Panther at one point.
Daley can be one of the game’s best offensive big men and rim protectors … or he could get hurt and miss a long stretch of games. He’ll be needed if Middlebury is to return to relevance this year.
Breakout Player: C Matt Daley
Daley has probably been my pick for Middlebury’s breakout player four years running. I think this is the year he finally makes me look good. Health is really the only question. If healthy and able to play hard for 30 minutes, he will put up numbers. Big ones.
Everything Else:
In case you didn’t figure it out, Middlebury has a lot of guard depth, but not much when it comes to the front court. Expect a deep rotation until New Year’s, as Coach Brown tries to figure out the best combination. Other guys in the mix will include guard Bryan Jones ’17, guard Hilal Dahleh ’19, guard/forward Zach Baines ’19, forward Adisa Majors ’18 and forward Eric McCord ’18.
Jones is another very athletic player. He was great for short stretches last season off the bench, coming in to provide energy, and he can shoot pretty well. However, Dahleh is more likely to amass minutes in the backcourt. The freshman can stretch the floor with a nice, lefty three-point shot, and can handle the ball if Brown and Daly need a breather, but his defense might be a question.
There is a lot of hype around the super-athletic Zach Baines. We throw around the term “athletic” a lot when talking about “student-athletes”, but if there was some kind of superlative suffix that I could throw on that word to describe Baines, then I would. Baines is “athletic-est”, if you will. He throws down with ease. He’s got about a 10-foot wing span. But he’s skinny and his game might take time to develop. With Baines at the four, Middlebury will have a tough time defending opposing frontcourts, but as the three Baines could be a matchup nightmare.
Majors and McCord round out the frontcourt rotation. I’ve gone back and forth on my prediction for McCord. Hampered by an injury in the preseason, McCord hasn’t had much of an impact in the team’s first two games, but he’s unique to the Middlebury roster at 6’7″ 254 lbs. Since the graduation of Pete Lynch ’13, the Panthers haven’t had a strong interior presence to both score the basketball and play tough defense. McCord, who hails from the same high school as Lynch, could become that player. However, with Tarantino and Daley both healthy – and strong minutes from Huff cleaning up the boards – there might not be a need for McCord right now. The Panthers have actually out-rebounded their opponents in the first two games. The bigger issue has been perimeter shooting and stopping their opponents from putting the ball in the hoop.
The beginning of the season is always tough for NESCAC teams, with games against opponents already three weeks in to practice and with two to three games under their belts. Heck, NESCAC Champion Wesleyan lost to Lyndon St. in its opener. Lyndon State! The 2013-14 Williams team that went to the National Championship lost to Southern Vermont in its season opener that year. Something about those pesky little Vermont schools … Panther fans, don’t be too disheartened just yet, but if shots still aren’t falling at the end of Christmas break, they might want to start figuring out what it will take to get Sinnickson back from UVM and Merryman from Spain. Furthermore, one front court injury for Middlebury and it could be a field day for teams like Tufts, Williams, Amherst and Bates that have talented front courts.
And lastly, I know I’m going to catch some heat around campus for being so critical … good thing it’s almost Thanksgiving break.
Coaches Jeff Brown, Kyle Dudley and Russ Reilly have some coaching up to do if Middlebury is going to return to the NESCAC tournament next season. (Courtesy of Kyle Finck/Middlebury Campus)
Record: 17-7 (4-6), missed NESCAC Tournament
The last time there was a NESCAC basketball tournament that didn’t feature the Middlebury Panthers, JT was bringing sexy back, “Brokeback Mountain” got snubbed from the Best Picture trophy, and I was still leaving games to read Harry Potter in the athletic director’s office because the timeout buzzer scared me. Lots of things have changed since then, chief among them the expectations surrounding the Middlebury team. In 2006, Middlebury’s absence wasn’t given a second thought save for a loyal core of fans; now it’s one of the main casual conversation topics in the town.
This was an all around strange season for the Panthers, mirroring the craziness of the NESCAC at large. Following a 9-0 start and a big road win against Plattsburgh State, the Panthers went just 8-7 the rest of the way, with a 4-6 league record (0-5 on the road). Lead to the Panthers’ decline were a lack of interior presence and inconsistent outside shooting, allowing teams to clog the paint and prevent Middlebury’s deadly transition attack from gelling. Inconvenient injuries to Matt Daley ’16, Jack Daly ’18 and Matt St. Amour ’17, as well as a strange team-wide gastro outbreak that affected the Bates-Tufts weekend, also contributed to the Panthers’ inconsistent season.
High Point
Middlebury’s best performance of the year was their 97-60 shellacking of Wesleyan at home, a loss which, in a cruel twist, seems to have propelled Wesleyan to a strong finish and inspired them to beat Williams on the final weekend, knocking Middlebury out. However, the high point of the year, (in my bitter, vengeance-crazed eyes, at least) was the 82-69 win over hated rival Amherst and their coach David “Dracula” Hixon on senior night in Pepin. Although Middlebury had already been eliminated from the tournament, the Panthers played with an intensity and team focus that had been lacking from many big games, including the must win game two nights before against Trinity. Hunter Merryman ’15 had one of his best games of the season with 24 points, including 4-5 from three, and the two Matts flashed some of what Panther fans can hopefully expect next season with 14 and 18 points respectively. Most importantly for the players themselves, it was the first win for a senior class that had gone 0-4 against the Lord Jeffs, including two losses their freshman year by two points each, one in overtime, the other for the NESCAC title; an incredible triple-overtime loss at home two years ago in which Willy Workman ’13 had to make his first free throw and intentionally miss his second, grab the rebound and finish a lay-in to force the third OT, which Aaron Toomey ’14 then sealed with a three-pointer with 2.9 seconds remaining; and a blowout 84-67 loss on the last NESCAC regular season game day last year that seemed to suggest that Middlebury had fallen from its once-elite level. The game against Amherst, while melancholy in some respects, was a feel-good end to a difficult and somewhat star-crossed season, and the same can be said for this senior class, and was a reminder that Middlebury is a tournament program team that shouldn’t be absent from postseason proceedings for long.
Team MVP: Dylan Sinnickson ’15
At times this season Dylan Sinnickson was a one-man show for the Panthers, even though his scoring slipped down the stretch. (Courtesy of Michael O’Hara/Middlebury Campus)
One of the great thrills of watching Middlebury this season was seeing the breathtaking athleticism of Sinnickson finally manifest itself into a starring role. Sinnickson finished the season with 17.5 points and 10.5 rebounds per game, good for fourth and second in the league, and teamed with Jake Brown ’17 for a couple of alley-oops that shattered several crusty old Vermonters’ carefully maintained indifference about dunks. Even when he struggled with his jump shot, his voracious rebounding was essential for Middlebury in some tough games where their other rebounders were non-existent. Sinnickson was asked to carry a very heavy load this season on the perimeter due to the outside shooting struggles of Brown and St. Amour (and Merryman for a stretch) and this caused his numbers to drop in league play, but his intensity, passion and absurd highlight potential were never questioned and always admired. Interestingly, Sinnickson has another year of NCAA eligibility left stemming from an arm injury that caused him to miss his entire sophomore season. I’m sure I could raise enough money in town to buy him a Hummer to get to and from classes if he stayed, but let’s keep that between us.
Player to Watch: Matt Daley
Matt Daley has the potential to dominate the NESCAC next season. Wait, where have we heard that before? (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)
Several players for Middlebury will need, and seem poised, to make leaps next season. Brown needs to develop a more threatening jump shot, Nick Tarantino ’18 (happy birthday, by the way, Nick) will assume much heavier rebounding duties, and sophomore guard St. Amour (who averaged nearly 20 points per game over the last five games) can and has to continue to develop as an all-around threat. However, Middlebury’s success next season hinges on junior center Matt Daley. When fully healthy, Daley offers a combination of size and nimbleness that screams First Team All-NESCAC. Fans saw this potential in that glorious final game against Amherst, when Daley put up 14 points, 11 boards and three blocks and basically took David George’s ’17 soul like the monsters in the live action Scooby Doo movies. However, Panther fans have never seen a fully healthy season from Daley, and for most of this season he was either hurt or tentative in his recovery. If Daley can remain healthy for all of next season the balance of power in NESCAC could shift back to Middlebury, making this year a one-time break from the tournament and starting another decade of success.
First and foremost, I want to thank all of our readers who followed us so faithfully during the fall and early on here in the winter. We know that most of you are just like us, NESCAC students with a love of sports and a desire to see their classmates, peers and friends compete and succeed on the field. If you’ve been reading the blog closely these last couple months, you will know that I had the pleasure of spending this past semester in Sydney, Australia.
Yours truly crushing some surf down under. (Courtesy of Surf Camp Australia)
As a consequence, I could only follow the football and basketball action from afar and only contribute sporadically to the blog’s content. But I’m back now, ready to bring you even more analysis and opinion right here on Nothing but NESCAC, as the dramatic ‘CAC basketball season unfolds. Again, thank you for reading, and we hope you continue to do so.
Let’s get on to this week’s power rankings.
1. Bates (7-0)
It pains me to slot the Bobcats ahead of my very own Panthers, but Bates has simply been the most impressive team so far. They took down a Babson team early in the season that just dismantled the suddenly reeling (is that too strong a word?) Amherst Lord Jeffs and has wins over Bowdoin and Tufts as well. They’ve already shown that they are the team to beat in the CBB with two wins by a combined 26 points. And both Delpeche brothers have taken steps forward and become solid compliments to the likes of Graham Safford ’15, Mike Boornazian ’16 and guard Billy Selmon ’15. What’s more, the ghost of that Safford three to win the game at Middlebury last season still haunts my dreams. This team has it all. Experience, height, three point shooting (though Safford and Boornazian have started off slow in that regard), and something to prove after going 1-9 in the NESCAC last season.
2. Middlebury (7-0)
Middlebury has had some close calls already against questionable opponents (UNE and Skidmore), but they’ve found a way to win and that’s all that matters. This is a team that I believe will get better as the year progresses, as Jake Brown ’17 becomes even more comfortable as the point man, Matt St. Amour ’17 gets further removed from his knee surgery, Jack Daly ’18 gains more experience and, fingers crossed, Matt Daley ’16 gets healthy and realizes the potential that he has flashed the past two seasons. Dylan Sinnickson ’15 and Hunter Merryman ’15 are doing their part, but the team is lacking an inside presence on both ends, something we knew would be a question mark before the season started.
3. Bowdoin (5-3)
This might surprise some, as there are two teams with only two losses, but there is a method to the madness. Two of the Polar Bear’s losses came to very strong teams in Bates and Babson, which are a combined 15-1, and as we know the only loss between them came when the Bobcats topped the Beavers. The loss to Colby isn’t a great one, but I believe it was just a hiccup. Remember, this was an NCAA tourney team last year that brought back an MVP candidate in the seven footer John Swords ’15. The health concerns we had now look foolish, as Swords is playing upwards of 29 minutes per game. With him on the floor, Bowdoin has a chance against anyone.
4. Williams (7-2)
Seven straight wins is a good way to start turning heads. With all the departures and two losses to open the season, this team could have gone into panic mode quickly. But then the Ephs proceeded to launch an offensive assault, scoring at least 82 points in the next six games. However, they allowed 69+ in five of those six games. I think it’s clear that this team is going to be fine offensively, but like Middlebury the biggest question is an inside presence on defense that can discourage shooters in the lane. That’s something that all the teams above the Ephs (with the exception of Middlebury until Daley gets healthy) all have.
5. Amherst (5-2)
Three days ago, Amherst might have had a claim to the top spot on this list, but I’m not here to talk about the past. The Lord Jeffs are still among the most talented squads in the NESCAC, but they are struggling to put it all together right now. Against Brandeis their perimeter defense was mediocre. The Judges were able to run a simple three-man weave at the three-point line until one of their guards was able to catch a defender napping and drive the lane (they also shot nearly 60 percent from deep, but a lot of those were way too wide open). Coach David Hixon will likely make sure that doesn’t become a trend, but for now it’s a concern. What’s more, defensive star David George ’17 barely saw the floor down the stretch of that game as Amherst needed to score points quick. George is a great rim protector, but he can’t be a liability on the offensive end if this team is going to be next-level.
6. Wesleyan (6-2)
The Cardinals have won handily in most of their victories, and competed in both losses, losing in OT to Williams and by eight to Curry. This team’s strength is a defense that ranks third in the NESCAC, but Wesleyan suffers from a lack of depth. Six players are averaging over 20 minutes per game, and after that no one tops 11 minutes. On the flip side they do have great balance in that group with four players in double digits scoring and a fifth, Jack Mackey ’16, averaging 9.9 points per game. Besides that OT loss against Wesleyan, we do not have much to go off of for this team.
7. Trinity (7-2)
The Bantams have a defense that has been just slightly more successful than the Cardinals, and because of their stinginess last season there’s reason to believe that the D will once again be very legit. On offense, the Bantams feature a lot of solid but unspectacular pieces. Their best strategy will be to milk clock and trust that they can shut opponents down. But will that be enough against the high-powered attacks of Middlebury, Williams and Amherst?
8. Colby (6-3)
As expected, Chris Hudnut ’16 is playing at an All-NESCAC First Team level, averaging a double-double thus far. What is surprising is how far teammate Luke Westman ’16 has raised his game. Last year, Westman was quiet but deadly, averaging 9.5 points per game on 65 percent shooting while tallying a 1.75 assist-to-turnover ratio. The junior point guard has upped the ante, however, becoming more efficient and taking better control of the ball, averaging 12.2 points per game (second on the team) on 68.2 percent shooting (incredible for a guard) and posting a 2.6 assist-to-turnover ratio. This team is loaded with offensive weapons, but are sort of the anti-Trinity, as they are allowing the second-most points in the league. Defense wins championships, fellas, and as fun as the Mules are to watch, they haven’t yet figured that out.
9. Conn College (5-3)
It’s been a bumpy start for the Camels, but the St. Joseph’s win was a good one and with three straight W’s, hopefully the team can get on track. Bo McKinley ’16 is doing a good job running the point and shooting the three, and Zuri Pavlin ’17 is a beast, as expected, averaging a double-double. But two exciting freshmen have come on and made this team dangerous. Six-foot-five Isaiah Robinson ’18 tops the teams in minutes and provides another big body in the Conn frontcourt, while Lee Messier ’18 has proven to be a sharpshooter from deep and leads the team in scoring. This young duo should only get better, making the Camels a candidate to play spoiler either late in the season or possibly in the first round of the NESCAC tourney.
10. Hamilton (7-2)
Hart who? The Continentals are 7-2! Hope abounds in Clinton. But wait, not so fast. Not only is Hamilton on a two-game skid, but only one of those seven wins came against a team that currently has a winning record, and the competition doesn’t get much better before the Continentals open up conference play against Amherst. As I predicted before the season started, Ajani Santos ’16 has really elevated his game, leading the team in scoring and and shooting almost 57 percent from the floor, but Zander Wear ’18 has not mad the immediate impact that we hoped he would, and overall there’s just a gap between Hamilton and the top tier of the NESCAC.
11. Tufts (3-6)
Despite all the optimism with the return of Tom Palleschi ’17 and the promise of a healthy starting five that couldn’t get on the court at the same time last year for very long, we were skeptical before the season started about whether this team would be as good on the court as it was on paper. Unfortunately, in the past few seasons the Jumbos have just been one of those teams that can’t match its talent with its performance. As the only team in the NESCAC with a losing record right now, Tufts was a default choice for the bottom spot in these rankings. They still have the talent to rise quickly through the ranks, and two former NESCAC Rookie of the Years, as well as one of the league’s most dynamic big men in Hunter Sabety ’17, but for right now they look doomed to another disappointing season.
We wanted to wait until every team had played a game before giving our initial impressions on the first looks that we got of NESCAC teams. It was a whirlwind of a first round of games that played out in the only way we thought it could: unpredictably.
1. Long way to March: One of the things that we harped on consistently during football was how quickly the season goes. Every football game has enormous ramifications. Obviously the same is not true for basketball as teams have months to come together as a team and gel before the NESCAC season begins. Teams as we see them now are going to look very different in a couple of months. Freshmen who barely got off the bench so far will end up influencing the conference race down the stretch while upperclassmen just getting comfortable in their roles will blossom. Do not overreact to a small sample size. Of course, that does not mean there is nothing to takeaway from these games either.
2. Injuries matter…to a point: A major takeaway was that a host of players did not suit up. Hunter Sabety ’17 missed Tufts’ first game but returned last night. Patrick Stewart ’16 will miss significant amounts of time because of a back injury, and Ajani Santos ’16 is out for an undisclosed time with an injury. Those losses all showed in their teams performance somewhat. Yet Keegan Pieri ’15 did not play for Bowdoin last weekend and the Polar Bears barely missed a beat. Pieri will be back this weekend making Bowdoin that much more dangerous, but the lesson is that teams are constructed in different ways. While Bowdoin had the personnel to survive without one of their two returning starters, other teams felt the crunch.
3. Trinity is a big fat question mark: It was surprising to see Trinity give up 83 points in their first game, but anytime your opponent goes 13-27 from three you are going to give up a lot of points. The good news was Trinity still won the game and doubled up UMass Dartmouth on the boards. When Salem State put up 102 on Trinity on Sunday then eyebrows across the league were raised. Known for their suffocating defense, the Bantams allowed Salem State to shoot 56.9 percent from the field and got out-rebounded. Trinity allowed only 61.4 points per game last year, and with everyone back their defense was supposed to be even better. They should be able to turn things around on that end, but they are not a team built to score 80 points a game so they need to improve sooner rather than later.
4. Losses hurt NCAA chances: On an individual level for each team these losses are not devastating if the teams can turn it around, but the NESCAC’s general struggles could hurt the league when the selection committee meets for the NCAA tournament. The NESCAC is generally a three bid league though it often only gets two teams into the tournament. Everyone knows how much talent left from the NESCAC so there is reason to believe that the league could be down this year. The NESCAC tournament champion gets an automatic bid. If the NESCAC continues to rack up out of conference losses that will make a NESCAC team more likely to be overlooked for an at-large bid.
5. Tufts is an enigma: For those who follow college football, the term Clemsoning is familiar. Clemson always seems to lose one game every season where they far outmatch their opponent in talent level but makes a host of mistakes to get upset. Over on the D3Boards, user lefrakenstein used the term “Tuftsing” to describe how it is almost predictable that the Jumbos are struggling out of the gate despite all of the talent on their roster. Now that they are 0-2, Tufts has to figure out how to put together all of their talent quicker than other teams. They begin conference play against Middlebury and Amherst and cannot afford to lose both of those games.
6. Williams lacks depth: The Ephs have been deeply reliant on their starting five to provide pretty much everything for them so far. Coach Kevin App did a better job last night of managing his players’ minutes, but that was not enough to stop SUNY Oneonta from mounting a large second half comeback that pushes Williams to 0-2. Ryan Kilcullen ’15 has averaged 35 minutes per game after being a secondary role player last year. The freshmen should develop and be able to give the perimeter players time to rest, but Kilcullen will need to play more than 30 minutes a game all season unless Edward Flynn ’16 can deliver on the promise he has shown. Depth is not everything (Amherst basically only played their starters down the stretch last year), but it sure helps.
7. Aaron Toomey’s absence looms large: Of course there was no question that Amherst was going to miss Toomey, one of the most decorated players in NESCAC history, but with Jayde Dawson ’17 transferring in from Division-I, the hope was that the team would adjust its style of play. Dawson struggled mightily in his first game and was benched down the stretch last night, but he should turn things around. Even then he is not the same type of player as Toomey. I did not realize it until I watched Toomey live, but he had this unbelievable skill of being in complete control of the game no matter the circumstances. Reid Berman ’17 looked much more confident than he did last year and was a major reason Amherst came back, but he still had three turnovers including one where the defender simply picked his pocket and scored a layup the other way.
8. Shooting is at a premium right now: One of the reasons for teams struggling to score is futility from the outside. More than half of NESCAC teams are making less than 30 percent of their threes. A lot of that is because the premier shooters in the NESCAC graduated. The top five players from last year in terms of three pointers made all departed from the NESCAC so don’t be shocked if long range shooting is down throughout the year. Percentages should tick up somewhat as players get more comfortable shooting in game conditions.
9. John Swords ’15 is amazing: The seven foot center went out and played what is at this point typical John Swords basketball, averaging 18 points and 12 rebounds on the weekend. Let us clarify that the concerns about his health were very real. Yet that did not affect him this weekend for a very simple reason. Swords got new shoes that he started using this weekend that made the pain in his legs go away. Mind you that these are not special shoes made to alleviate pain or something like that. They are simply new shoes. Swords felt completely confident in his ability to do whatever he normally does on a basketball court this weekend. That is great news for Bowdoin and terrible news for everybody else in the NESCAC.
10. A juggernaut could lurk: My bold prediction during the preseason was that every single team would lose two games in the NESCAC regular season. No regular season conference champion has had two losses since the crazy 2000-2001 season when five teams finished at 6-3 (Hamilton was not in the NESCAC yet). After seeing every team play I stand by that prediction for now. However, given how many injuries Middlebury had this weekend, the fact they still went 2-0 means they had the most impressive weekend of anyone. The Panthers played without Matt Daley ’16, a player many think could be All-NESCAC if he stays healthy. Jack Daly ’18 looks like an instant impact player who gives Middlebury plenty of depth in the backcourt. The Panthers lost a lot of talent, but the assortment of pieces in Vermont could gel together quite nicely.
2013 Record: 17-9 (6-4 NESCAC), third in NESCAC, reached semifinals of NESCAC tournament
Head Coach: Jeff Brown, 18th season (274-167, .621)
Starters Returning: 3
G Matt St. Amour ’17
G/F Dylan Sinnickson ’15
F Hunter Merryman ’15
Breakout Player: Dean Brierley ’15
Though the guard played only 7.7 minutes per game last season, he earned his co-captaincy because of the respect he commands for his work ethic. If you have ever walked by Pepin Gymnasium during the day, at any time of year, you have likely seen Brierley making it rain from all over the court. He is one of the smoothest shooters in practice. The challenge now is for the senior to translate his skills to the game.
Projected Starting Five:
Jake Brown (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)
G Jake Brown ’17
It is tough to follow one of the best players in program history, but Brown is up to the task. Brown, nephew of coach Jeff Brown, is a different type of player than the departed Joey Kizel, a feisty defender and pass-first point guard. For his position, Brown is probably the best defender on the team. He should see a big bump in production because of increased minutes after playing only 21.7 minutes per game last year.
Matt St. Amour (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)
G Matt St. Amour ’17
St. Amour began last season starting at the two guard, but struggled shooting the ball, which ought to be his greatest strength. His season was cut short when he succumbed to a torn ACL in early February, but reports are that he has made a speedy recovery and will be active for the season opener. It’s possible that Brierley begins this season starting at the two-guard, but this is a long term prognostication. St. Amour, when he’s healthy and effective, will be in the starting lineup.
Dylan Sinnickson (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)
G/F Dylan Sinnickson ’15
Was there a bigger surprise in 2013-14 than Sinnickson? The super athletic swing man had his sophomore season ruined because of injury, but he became the Panthers’ best scoring threat very quickly last year, nearly matching Kizel in every scoring category but free throw percentage. If Sinnickson can get to the line a bit more and hit his freebies at a higher rate, he could make a run for NESCAC Player of the Year. And he should be able to get to the stripe, because his athleticism lets him get to the rim more often than not.
Sinnickson rises for a three-pointer. The swingman shot 42.9 percent from deep in 2013-14. (Courtesy of Jeff Patterson)Hunter Merryman (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)
F Hunter Merryman ’15
Merryman was among the nation’s best three-point shooters two years ago, and though he did not hit at quite that high of a rate last season, he still shot over 40.0 percent from deep and averaged 12.3 points per game. Merryman and St. Amour will be counted on to hit open shots in transition.
Matt Daley (Courtesy of Midlebury Athletics)
C Matt Daley ’16
Daley represents the biggest question mark for the Panthers. For anyone that has watched Middlebury over the last two years, the wait for Daley to turn into a day-in an day-out force has been a long one. Much of the inconsistency is due to poor luck, as Daley suffered from mono for much of last season, but when he was healthy early on he had some dominant games. Better than his 24-point performance in the season opener was his all-around effort against Tufts, in which he scored 15 points in just 15 minutes and frustrated Tufts’ Hunter Sabety ’17 in the second half of the game. Daley’s presence will be as important, if not more so, on the defensive end as the offensive end, as he will be needed to shut down some of the NESCAC’s impressive frontcourts, such as Tufts and Amherst.
Everything Else:
In a down year, the Panthers entered the NESCAC tournament as the third seed last season. Despite the loss of some integral parts, this year’s team could be better than last, if everything goes right. The transition game will be the Panthers’ strength, as they will be able to match their opponents’ athleticism at every position.
The rest of Middlebury’s rotation, after the six players listed above, will consist primarily of G Bryan Jones ’17, F Jake Nidenberg ’16, F Connor Huff ’16, C Chris Churchill ’15 and newcomer G Jack Daly ’18.
Jones can be electric and is an above average shooter, but he did not get much time last year as he sat behind Kizel and Brown at the point. He will need to play with energy at all times on the floor if he wants to get significant minutes.
Jones will also be pushed by Jack Daly, whom Coach Brown refers to as “game ready”. Daly has good size for the point at 6’3″, and is strength is the transition game, which fits in perfectly with Middlebury’s style.
Forwards Nidenberg and Huff saw similar minutes last season. The former is a high-energy guy who can chip in with points, boards and defense. Unfortunately, he is still recovering from an injury suffered over the summer and has yet to participate fully in practice. Huff is a crafty offensive player who can come in for a shift and tally a few points.
Churchill has not gotten many minutes in his career, but as a senior and the biggest body on the roster, he will be crucial in spelling Daley and providing strong defense.
The biggest concerns for this year’s team will be the lack of experience beyond the starting five and whether or not someone can step up and become a dominant one-on-one defender. Over the last two seasons, Nolan Thompson ’13 and James Jensen ’14 were able to take the other team’s best offensive player and neutralize his impact, but seeing as Brown stands at 5’10”, he is unable to defend beyond the point guard position. Sinnickson has the size and athleticism to fit the Jensen mold, but he will be relied upon so heavily to score that it might be asking for too much for him to be a shutdown defender as well. We might see some interesting lineups that could free up Daley to defend big 3’s and 4’s.
Despite the inexperience of the second half of the rotation and the defensive questions, Middlebury has enough talent to compete for a NESCAC title.
Jeff Brown was kind enough to sit down with one of our contributors, Peter Lindholm, and give us his take on some major news in the NESCAC as well as an update on how the summer is going for his Panthers team.
Peter Lindholm: Obviously, the major news in the NESCAC lately is Mike Maker’s departure from Williams for Marist? What made Coach Maker so successful at Williams?
Jeff Brown: Well, he sort of has a unique offensive scheme and he does a very good job of adjusting and tweaking to the talent base that he has. His time at Williams has been truly very special and so successful in so many ways, and that speaks to both the talent level that he had at Williams and his ability to organize them and really play some great basketball.
PL: What does his departure mean for Middlebury, and the NESCAC power dynamic in general?
JB: You know, I don’t think it changes a great deal. Williams has had an unbelievable history in NESCAC basketball, I’ve been in the league 20 years and I don’t believe they’ve had a sub-.500 season in the last 20 years, and they’ve had tremendous coaching with Coaches Sheehy, Paulson and Maker. I’m sure they’re going to have a great hire, and continue to be a team that challenges for NESCAC titles and titles on the national stage
PL: As another very successful NESCAC coach, you must have had D1 offers at schools like Marist. What made you choose to remain in NESCAC?
JB: It really starts with being at Middlebury, a great institution. I think a subtle difference between Coach Maker and myself is that he spent the bulk of his time within Division 1, whereas I’ve been a NESCAC coach for 20 years. I’ve just really settled in, I’m very comfortable working with the student athletes on this campus, and in this level. Coach Maker spent six years at Williams, but before that had a good 15-18 years on the D1 level. So we probably just have different goals, in terms of him trying to climb the Division 1 ladder.
PL: In keeping with this D1-NESCAC theme, what are your thoughts on the Amherst transfers? Does Middlebury ever battle for former D1 players?
JB: I really don’t know that much about the two players attending Amherst next year, but transfers have crept into the NESCAC in the past. I know that we even fielded several calls from candidates looking to come down from D1. Unfortunately for us, they came at a period where transfer applications were closed here, so we weren’t able to explore those opportunities. But it’s really at an epidemic level in terms of Division 1. Every year it seems, more and more d1 players are looking to transfer within D1, or transfer down to D2 or D3.
PL: Shifting gears now, how is the summer progressing for you and the Panthers?
JB: It’s going well. We’re sort of at the early stage of the recruiting, it really picks up at the end of this month and throughout July. [Assistant] Coach [Kyle] Dudley has been out at several different events, and I’ve covered a couple of events. We tend to target some of the academic based opportunities, such as camps at Ivy League schools and AAU tournaments, and some camps are really targeted for academic-minded students.
PL: How is the freshman class shaping up? Are Jack Daly and Nick Tarantino still the standouts?
JB: Well, we have a class of four, and along with Tarantino and Daly, we have Adisa Majors from NYC, and Jack Gale from San Francisco. We like the class. I’m really guarded with making projections, just because I like our returning cast so much, and think very highly of them as players. So I don’t know how much the newcomers will fit initially into our program, but they definitely give us some pieces to build on for the future.
PL: Well, that’s what I got, thanks again and good luck.
