Clock Strikes Midnight: Weekend Preview 5/5

The Regular Season Comes Down to This:

With three out of four playoff spots secured, we wait on the Amherst vs Middlebury series to determine the 2018 NESCAC tournament schedule. Both teams were in two very different spots midseason. Midd was underachieving with a weak looking rotation after its ace. The once potent lineup from 2017 was easily contained. Amherst, in contrast, was firing on all cylinders. Clutch offense, defense, and pitching guided Amherst to a conference victory against Little Three rival, Wesleyan. However, these past few weekends haven’t treated Amherst kindly. With Wes clinching a playoff spot, and Midd rising, Amherst needed to perform in these last few games. Losing to Hamilton in a rescheduled game Thursday night didn’t help. As a result, the winner of this series will determine who’s in and who’s out.

Including non-conference games, Midd has won nine in a row. That statistic is absurd considering the entropy of baseball. Midd accomplished what neither Wes nor Amherst could do: sweeping Hamilton. Colby Morris, biggest glow up in the ‘Cac and my editor, leads the Midd staff with a 1.92 ERA. In my opinion, he’s the best pitcher in the league. Going back to my piece a few weeks back that interviewed each pitcher, I asked each of them what they do when they’re not getting any run support. To say that Morris wasn’t getting much run support early on is an understatement. However, like the GOAT of all GOATs says, ‘Do your job.’ Morris was able to keep sharp focus on his task at hand: throwing strikes, getting ground balls, and making outs. In a comparison with another ace in the league, Mike McCaffrey, Morris has logged around ten more innings pitched, while compiling less strikeouts than McCaffrey. Even though strikeouts are the tantalizing statistic among fans, Morris’ pitch count per inning has to be lower than McCaffrey because he’s not always looking for the spot on a back door breaking ball, but shooting the knees to induce a ground ball or double play. Midd’s bats have come alive as well. Freshman standouts from last year, Justin Han and Brooks Carroll, and have picked up the production at the plate with avg’s all over .300– above .350 for Carroll and Han. Hayden Smith has emerged as a stud at 3B for the Panthers too. Amherst should fear what would happen if Midd takes game one. Even though I believe that Amherst is a better all-around team, beating Morris isn’t an easy task for any ball club. That scenario would put Midd in the driver’s seat to take either game two or game three to clinch its second consecutive playoff berth.

Morris and Ferrero are going to duel it out tomorrow in game 1.

Amherst has had a roller coaster season with big wins against Wesleyan, but critical losses to Hamilton. Its road record of 4-4 in overall play in contrast with a 12-2 home record doesn’t exactly give Amherst fans confidence traveling to face a hot Midd team on their diamond. The old saying goes, “the more things change, the more they stay the same.” Amherst has been a force in the conference for years and years. While the faces of Yanni Thanopoulos, Andrew Vandini, Mike Odenwaelder, and Drew Fischer are gone, names such as Harry Roberson and Max Steinhorn remain. Most importantly, Brian Hamm, a Middlebury alum, will continually put together a quality team year in and year out. That’s why I’m not overly concerned about Amherst this weekend. Yes, they’ve put themselves in a tough position by needing to win two out of three against a hot team. Like I’ve said in all my articles, there are teams that always come through in the clutch. Amherst is one of those teams. The Patriots were down by twenty-five midway through the third about Super Bowl LI. At the end of the day, the Patriots are the Patriots and the Falcons are the Falcons. The Falcons were destined to blow it. Amherst has nine guys that are hitting over .300 in overall play. Even though none of them are really the standout hitters that Tufts has, they all compete and grind out quality at bats at an extraordinary level. Even though Morris is better than Ferrero, I give Amherst the edge in overall pitching.

Harry Roberson just became Amherst’s all time hits leader, coming in hot after a slow start to the season.

Given that we had two articles on this pivotal series, we have two different projections from the recent authors. If these tell you anything, it’s that this series is a must watch:

Andrew’s Prediction: Amherst 2 games, Middlebury 1 game  

Why he chose them: This series is going to be tight. Obviously, both teams are high level ball clubs who are built to compete on this stage. I believe that both teams will take a game, but in the end, you have to go with the team that’s done it consistently before, and is acclimated with the spotlight and pressure that comes with big games.

Spencer’s Prediction: Middlebury 2 games, Amherst 1 game

Why he chose them: Midd will be able to complete their improbable comeback and return to the playoffs hungry for another shot at a NESCAC ‘ship. With their home crowd and hot streak, they should be bringing it all weekend. Whatever happens, there’s no doubt that this will be the series of the year.  

Once Is Nice, but Twice … Wesleyan Repeats: Stock Report 5/12

What an incredible weekend of NESCAC baseball. From Friday afternoon until Sunday evening, the boys left it all out on the field. Every game offered drama and intrigue right up until the end. In six of the seven games played at last weekend’s NESCAC Championship, the tying run was at-bat or on-base when the final out was made. Stellar pitching performances were the norm, but there was plenty of going yard, too. At some point I lost track of how many diving catches had been made because it seemed like there was at least one every other inning. All in all, nobody left Nashua, NH without some moment where their team was firing on all cylinders.

In the end, the Wesleyan Cardinals were again the last team left standing as they captured their second consecutive NESCAC title. Though it ended just as most expected it to, the tournament was an absolute nail-biter. The final game between Amherst and Wesleyan was one of the wildest baseball games I have watched at any level. Consider that Wesleyan entered the ninth down one run with the bottom of their lineup coming up and Amherst ace John Cook ’15 on the mound. Consider that Ethan Rode ’17, the winning pitcher, had thrown two innings since Wesleyan’s spring break trip before he took the mound in the 11th. Consider that the Cardinals had to escape bases loaded jams in back-to-back innings just to get to the 12th inning.

The Cardinals came into Sunday feeling comfortable in their one game advantage over Amherst, but just as in 2014, Wesleyan lost the first game of the day to set up a deciding final game. Entering the Bottom of the seventh, Wesleyan looked like they were in control up 2-0 with Peter Rantz ’16 allowing only two hits through six innings. Then Mike Odenwaelder ’16 hit a solo homer to lead off the inning. Whatever, Wesleyan still had the lead. They just needed to get out of the inning…

That white speck right above Marco Baratta's glove is Sam Ellinwood's home run. (Courtesy of Northeast Sports Network)
That white speck right above Marco Baratta’s glove is Sam Ellinwood’s home run to put Amherst up 3-2 in the final game against Wesleyan. (Courtesy of Northeast Sports Network)

Then suddenly ecstasy for Amherst as the above Sam Ellinwood ’18 homer put the Jeffs up by one. Yet not one person in the Wesleyan dugout thought they were going to lose that game for a moment. According to captain Donnie Cimino ’15, ” There was no doubt in any of our minds. We are such a close team and have been through many victories and losses.” Pitcher Gavin Pittore ’16 echoed that sentiment citing the leadership of the seniors on this team. The Cardinals never stopped believing that they would find a way, any way. And in the ninth, when Amherst gave an inch, the Cardinals jumped. When Cook hit Ellis Schaefer ’17 with one out, Manager Mark Woodworth put on the hit and run for Andrew Yin ’15 and Schaefer. On an outside fastball, Yin just stuck his bat out and floated one down the right field line. Schaefer raced all the way around and the game was tied. Wesleyan would go on to win in 12 innings, and for a second consecutive year they piled out of the dugout for a victory dogpile.

If there is one characteristic to describe these Cardinals from the past two years, it is grittiness. After the Cards grabbed the 2014 NESCAC Championship, we wrote, “Wesleyan won games by never backing down in big spots.” The same is true for 2015, of course. The final game on Sunday was the perfect representation of a team that consistently finds a way to win close games. That it came against Amherst, their longtime rival and formerly a team that would regularly beat down on Wesleyan makes it all the sweeter for them. This team loves to show their confidence and celebrates with a swagger. At this point, they know they are special and want more. Pittore says a repeat NESCAC championship was just the beginning. In the 150th year of Wesleyan baseball, the Cards are hoping to add some more hardware to the University trophy case. Pittore says, “We’ve made it our mission not to settle. We know we have a special team and anything short of a World Series appearance is a disappointment. Our goal is to make Wesleyan University team 150 a team to remember.”

Now for a quick Stock Report.

 Stock Up

Shortstop Guy Davidson ’16 (Wesleyan)

This is a Stock Down and then back Up in one weekend for Davidson. Because when you go 2-17 through 99 percent of the weekend in the three hole, you definitely can’t say you had a great weekend overall. However, Davidson made all of that go away with one huge swing to hit the eventual game winning home run in the top of the 12th. With Odenwaelder on the mound for the first time all season for Amherst, Davidson led off the 12th thinking one thing only: fastball. That was what he got and boy did Davidson not miss. The home run was a no doubter as soon as it left the bat. Sitting fastball for the first pitch of the inning was the right move all the way, but it is also easy in a situation like that to get too excited when you get your pitch and swing out of your shoes. Davidson stayed calm and delivered a NESCAC title with it.

Amherst

Though the majority of this article is concentrating on Wesleyan and their victory, don’t forget how close Amherst came to the win. On Sunday they were eager to avenge their regular season sweep and loss in the second round of the tournament to the Cardinals. The knock on Amherst the last two years is that they haven’t been able to win the close games, but that was not the case this weekend, the final game notwithstanding. They got great pitching performances from guys up and down the roster from Sam Schneider ’18 to Keenan Szulik ’16. Their defense, long a problem, was good all weekend. They came as close as possible as you can to winning a league title, and they didn’t even have players like Odenwaelder and Andrew Vandini ’16 hit all that well. The Jeffs are heading to New York for their regional and should be able to make some noise.

Stock Down

Amherst Base Running

Of all the chances Amherst had to win (of which there were many) that final game, the bottom of the 10th was perhaps their best. Cooney was on the mound, but he was clearly struggling with his control and had barely gotten out of the ninth inning. After Yanni Thanopoulos ’17 singled and Anthony Spina ’17 got reached on a HBP, the Jeffs had runners on first and second with one out. Then Thanopoulos made the mistake of getting picked off second and getting caught in a rundown. Thanopoulos should have been more cautious in that situation, especially with Cooney so clearly struggling with his command. If Thanopoulos could have gotten a good read on a ball in the dirt and reached third with one out, Amherst almost certainly wins that game, but you don’t help out a pitcher who can’t get the ball over the plate consistently. As it was, Cooney walked the next two hitters to load the bases with two outs before getting a fly out to escape the inning. Thanopoulos had an excellent tournament batting .400 and stealing four bases, but that mistake was costly.

Tufts

Those in Medford are fuming about missing out on making the NCAA tournament. That came after they had a tough weekend dropping two close games. The Bates game, especially, they feel like they gave away since the Bobcats scored eight runs in the first two innings before the Jumbos almost came all the way back and ended up leading them loaded in the eighth inning down one run. We warned a couple of weeks ago about the danger of Tufts or Amherst missing the tournament. Then, Tufts was left out of the Top-10 of the NCAA Regional Rankings before last weekend. They likely needed a win against Amherst and possibly one other win in the tournament to have a shot at the tournament. Their weekend performance left them well short of that goal. In the end, D3Baseball.com and others didn’t even consider the Jumbos on the bubble for the tournament despite their great overall record. They got no help from their NESCAC East counterparts as three of those four teams finished with records below .500. That hurt Tufts’ overall Strength of Schedule. Disappointing ending for a team that looked great entering the year but never was at full strength because of injuries to Kyle Slinger ’15.

 

The Great Thaw: Power Rankings 4/8

We held off on doing a Power Rankings last week because so few games had been played since the last one. Also, we had to re-watch Game of Thrones before the season premiere. Pretty standard stuff really. Before a big weekend of games, getting a Power Rankings out there is necessary.

1. Wesleyan (12-4, 3-0). Last Ranking: 1

The Cardinals have won their four games since we last made these rankings so they remain solidly at the top. Williams came close to beating Wesleyan in the final game, and in the process they reminded us that Wesleyan is far from unbeatable. What makes the Cardinals the best in the NESCAC is that they have no weaknesses. Take defense, an area where NESCAC teams often struggle to have consistency. As a team, Wesleyan has only 17 errors, the lowest in the NESCAC and good enough for the best fielding percentage as well. Even more impressive is that the Cardinals are yet to have a game where they commit more than two errors. Not making errors is sexy, and it helps win ball games.

2. Amherst (10-6, 3-0). Last Ranking: 3

Anytime you AVERAGE 20 runs per game over a three game stretch like the Jeffs did this weekend against Middlebury, we are going to take notice. Plenty of gaudy stat lines came out of it as a result, but the best one goes to NESCAC Player of the Week 2B Andrew Vandini ’16. Vandini went 8-12, walked four times, scored eight runs, knocked in 14 teammates, and hit two home runs during the weekend. He did strike out one time so there is room for improvement. The Jeffs can pretty much cement their place in the playoffs if they win their series against Williams this weekend.

3. Tufts (15-4, 2-1). Last Ranking: 2

The Jumbos drop a spot but we actually feel better about them now than we did two weeks ago. The conference loss to Bowdoin is the only one in their last 12 games, and Tufts is currently on a six-game winning streak. Kyle Slinger ’15 looked good once again this weekend against Brandeis and has now put his early season injury problems completely behind him. Also, don’t worry about Tufts striking out 112 times, the second most in the league. That’s because they employ a patient approach which is why they have 90 walks, 21 more than any other team.

4. Colby (11-4, 2-1). Last Ranking: 4

Are you buying or selling stock in Colby right now? They are 4-1 against NESCAC opponents (they won two non-conference games against Hamilton), and their one loss came on a walk-off homer. Yet, the starts of some of their offensive players are almost too good to believe. Chiefly, Tommy Forese ’16 who has hit four home runs and has an OBP of .500 after only getting 14 at-bats and hitting .214 last season. Others like Tim Corey ’15 are also enjoying big bumps in production from a year ago. The Mules have gotten somewhat limited production from Jason Buco ’15, so if others take a step back he could pick up the slack.

5. Bates (6-7, 1-1). Last Ranking: 5

The Bobcats are the slightest of smidgeons above the Polar Bears in our minds right now. The fact that the teams split a doubleheader on Sunday in which neither game was close certainly did us no favors in figuring out which team to put ahead of the other. Connor Colombo ’16 has emerged as one of the starters who will get the ball every weekend, but he has still only thrown 15.0 innings, the highest of any Bates starter. Seventeen different pitchers have thrown a full inning, a crazy high amount that shows how unsettled the pitching rotation is. Manager Mike Leonard will have to be able to push the right buttons to make sure the best guys get on the mound.

6. Bowdoin (7-11, 2-3). Last Week: 6

The overall record still does not look great, and the Polar Bears are stuck in neutral for the moment. Peter Cimini ’16 has struggled with an injury that has kept him out for most of the season, and the lineup has not hit well outside of a couple of core players like Chad Martin ’16 and Aaron Rosen ’15. Do they have a weekend where they can play well in every aspect of the game and sweep their opponent? They play at Wesleyan in a non-conference doubleheader Saturday. A good performance against the Cardinals could give them a little more confidence as they enter the stretch run.

7. Williams (6-9, 3-3). Last Ranking: 8

Getting swept by Wesleyan is not the worst thing in the world, but it does put pressure on Williams this weekend against Amherst. A series win is almost a must to keep the Ephs above .500. Both Dan Smith ’16 and Thomas Murphy ’15 have ERA’s close to 8.00, though Smith did contain the Wesleyan lineup enough to give Williams a chance in the final game of the series. The Ephs are hoping that they can keep the games more low-scoring against the fearsome Amherst lineup

8. Trinity (9-7, 1-2). Last Ranking: 7

Trinity is bringing up the rear in the East for now mostly because their offense has simply lacked punch this year. Their rotation has the third-best ERA in the league, and Jed Robinson ’16 and Nick Fusco ’18 both have ERA’s below 1.00. The problem is the offense has a NESCAC-worst .338 OBP, a full 31 percentage points worse than the second-to-last team. Besides his walk-off home run, Daniel Pidgeon ’16 has struggled at the plate with a .189 BA. He and other Bantam mainstays have to become more consistent at the dish.

9. Hamilton (7-5, 0-0). Last Ranking: 9

The final NESCAC team without a game in conference play, the Continentals are itching to get going finally. The Continentals have played only one game since returning from their Florida trip on March 24 so we have very little new information on them. Cole Dreyfuss ’16 has been a revelation with a 1.33 ERA. He has pitched more than six innings in each of his three starts which is important because the bullpen for Hamilton has struggled. They plan to travel to Middlebury for their opening series on Friday, though the opener could be pushed to Saturday because of weather.

10. Middlebury (0-12, 0-6) Last Ranking: 10

The Panthers got smacked by a very good Amherst team last weekend as they continue to struggle. The one area where Middlebury has been decent is their offense. They are sixth in OBP, but their inability to hit for power or steal bases has hamstrung the offense. Catcher Max Araya ’16 and shortstop Johnny Read ’17 are both hitting above .350 while some of the freshmen are also hitting well. The Panthers will try to get their first win against Hamilton, a team they beat twice a year ago.

Talent Aplenty for the Jeffs: Amherst Baseball Season Preview

Mike Odenwaelder is back to mash baseballs which is good news for Amherst. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)
Mike Odenwaelder ’16 is back to mash baseballs which is good news for Amherst. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

2014 Record: 30-11 (9-3, Second in NESCAC West), 0-2 in NESCAC Tournament, 2-2 in NCAA New England Regional.

Returning Starters: 8 (7 Position Players, 1 Starting Pitcher)

Projected Starting Lineup: (Stats are from 2014)

CF Brendon Hardin ’15 (.179/.304/.179, 0 HR, 6 RBI)
2B Andrew Vandini ’16 (.309/.401/.315, 0 HR, 25 RBI)
1B Mike Odenwaelder ’16 (.400/.452/.607, 6 HR, 31 RBI)
LF Yanni Thanopoulos ’17 (.312/.375/.409, 0 HR, 24 RBI)
C Connor Gunn ’16 (.307/.382/.444, 4 HR, 23 RBI)
RF Tyler Jacobs ’15 (.289/.331/.389, 2 HR, 27 RBI)
3B Sam Ellinwood ’18
SS Harry Roberson ’18
DH Max Steinhorn ’18

LHP John Cook ’15 (5-3, 1.93 ERA, 9.32 K/9, 64.2 IP)
RHP Keenan Szulik ’18 (6-0, 4.56 ERA, 6.93 K/9, 49.1 IP)
RHP Drew Fischer ’18

Offensive Overview:

If you didn’t look carefully at those stats from 2014, look again at Odenwaelder’s. Those were good enough for him to win NESCAC Player of the Year as a sophomore, and he followed that up by winning the Futures Collegiate summer league MVP award as well. The expectation is that Odenwaelder will be drafted at some point in the draft this spring, and it is possible that he gets picked somewhere in the top 15 rounds. There are plenty of other boppers around Odenwaelder, too. Both Gunn and Jacobs hit multiple home runs a season ago. Vandini will get on base a lot while Hardin will have to show he belongs at the top of the lineup. The bottom of the lineup looks completely different with three freshmen getting the first chance at those spots. The shortstop Roberson in particular is one name to keep an eye on as he was the ISL (Independent School League) MVP last season. There are a lot of new faces from a season ago, all of which have high expectations.

Defensive Overview:

The major change on defense is on the left side of the infield where the duo of Jacobs and Taiki Kasuga ’14 combined for 26 of Amherst’s 50 errors a season ago. That is why Jacobs is now playing right field, and the freshmen Roberson and Ellinwood are getting a crack at starting. They should be more steadily reliable defenders which will go a long way. Gunn threw out only 19 percent of runners who stole against him. That number will need to be much higher or else Amherst might look elsewhere and move Gunn to DH. Hardin is also a new center fielder so there are some big question marks surrounding the Amherst defense. The key will be Roberson and Ellinwood making the simple play. Having Vandini as his partner in the middle infield will help Roberson a little, too.

Pitching Overview:

The Jeffs lose a ton from their rotation a year ago. Two of their three top starters, Dylan Driscoll ’14 and Quinn Saunders-Kolberg ’14, along with two others who pitched more than 25 innings, graduated. Odenwaelder likely won’t pitch because of shoulder concerns, and he was dominant for the Jeffs when he came in for relief in 2014. Cook will be an ace at the top for them, but after that things get a little dicey. Szulik ended up pitching 49.1 innings, but he was a reliever for most of the season. He will need to become an important piece very quickly. Jackson Volle ’17 is  another returning pitcher who might make a major impact, but it will be the freshman Fischer who gets first crack at a weekend slot. That third spot could ultimately go to somebody else, though. If Cook replicates his dominant junior season, that will give the rest of the rotation a little bit more leeway to get their feet under them.

Storylines to Watch

1. How good are the freshman?

Trotting out three freshmen in your starting lineup is unusual, and it is even more so when you consider the three are playing SS, 3B and DH. Those are usually some of your best hitting positions for college players. The youth in the Amherst lineup stands in contrast to their West division rival Wesleyan who has upperclassmen manning every position. Don’t let the DH label fool you with Steinhorn. He is actually a speed demon who will see some time in the middle infield but is simply blocked by Vandini and Roberson. Throw in the fact that Fischer should get major run in the rotation, and the Jeffs are going to be one of the teams most heavily reliant on freshmen.

2. What is Odenwaelder’s ceiling?

He had a spectacular freshmen year and then managed to easily top that last season. Then last summer he was the best player in a league that includes a decent amount of Division-I players. Throw in the fact that he is 6’5″ and weighs 225 and you start to get an idea for why MLB scouts are going to be showing up for a good amount of the Jeffs games. It is a real shame is that we are unlikely to see Odenwaelder throw 90+ like he did a season ago. However, his ability to absolutely MASH should keep us happy. The only real potential speed bump is that some of the hitters around him struggle. Then you could see teams pitch around Odenwaelder. That is very unlikely to happen given all the talent on the Amherst roster. We expect his on-base percentage to top .500 and his slugging percentage to rise also. Think 2002 Barry Bonds, but without all the steroid baggage.

3. Does the bullpen hold up?

Even though the rotation looks shaky right now, I expect a reliable top three to emerge by the time that conference play begins. The problem might be that there is no depth behind that top three because of all the losses from a season ago. The Jeffs have almost nobody who threw innings last season ready to step into a big time role. Last year Eric Kotin ’14 appeared in an astounding 22 games over the course of the season. He got touched for runs a couple of times, but overall he was a big stabilizing force for Amherst. They need somebody like him to step up and help Amherst to close out close games.

Biggest Series: April 24-25 against Wesleyan

This is really the only series that matters in the West. That might sound harsh, but this is very much a two-tier division. Wesleyan and Amherst will make the NESCAC playoffs unless one of the three bottom teams comes out of nowhere. The winner of this series should take the West division. Yet, this series is really more of a measuring stick than anything else. The championship format for the NESCAC this year is different, and instead of the top team hosting, all games are being played in Nashua, New Hampshire. That won’t change the Jeffs’ desire for revenge for last season when Wesleyan took two out of three.

Stock Report May 5

The conference regular season is officially in the books now. The playoffs are set. Every team has seen their fortunes rise and fall somewhat over the course of the season. The Stock Report was meant to capture some of that in showing who was playing well and who was struggling. This will be the final one of the 2014 baseball season and feel free to look back through the other Stock Reports for a snapshot of how things looked every Monday of the season.

Stock Up

1. Connor McDavitt ’15 Centerfielder (Tufts) – Bates stole the first game of the doubleheader on Saturday, scoring two runs in the bottom of the seventh and one in the eighth to walk off with the win, but Tufts held them off in game two to secure hosting rights for the NESCAC championship. McDavitt had a huge role in that game from the get-go. He singled to lead off the game before stealing second as Matt Moser ’16 struck out for the second out of the inning. A Max Freccia ’14 single brought McDavitt home for the first run of the game. In the second inning, McDavitt struck again, singling home Nick Barker ’15 to extend Tufts early lead to three runs. McDavitt finished the day with two hits in what was his fourth straight mult-hit game. He has been superb at the top of the lineup getting on base at a .467 clip. Much of that comes from his 26 walks, four more than anyone else in the NESCAC. He also has twelve stolen bases, but has only five since April 12, while been caught four times in that span. The Tufts bats will come to the forefront this weekend and will face a tough matchup with whomever Amherst throws out in the first game.

2. Jed Robinson ’16 Starting Pitcher (Trinity) – Trinity dropped off the radar pretty early on by not winning any of their conference series. They lacked the starting pitching depth or power hitting to win enough games to make some serious noise, but they played better down the stretch winning seven in a row before falling to Wesleyan in their season finale. We wrote a few weeks ago about the talent already on the Trinity roster saying “the final weeks of the season will help the coaching staff identify those potential contributors.” Robinson fits that profile perfectly. He struggled in a few early season starts and ended up not starting a game in conference play. He did get the win in Trinity’s extra inning victory over Tufts, pitching 1.1 scoreless innings. After that he re-entered the rotation, winning his final three starts. His best performance came Saturday against Wesleyan when he held the Cardinals to two runs over seven innings in Trinity’s 4-2 win. Robinson was one of several silver linings to emerge down the stretch for the Bantams as they look to quickly get back to the top of the league next season.

3. Bates (19-15, 7-5) – They didn’t quite manage to pull off the shocking feat of sweeping Tufts and stealing NESCAC hosting rights, but they came very darn close. Down 4-2 in the second game on Saturday, Bates got the first two runners on in the sixth before stranding them and then had two runners on in the seventh with one out and their two best batters coming up. Unfortunately, neither Kevin Davis ’14 or Griff Tewksbury ’14 was able to deliver a big hit, but consider how Bates started the season with six straight losses and you see how improbable the situation was. One of the major reasons for that poor performance was their awful defense which had 25 errors through seven games. In their next 27 games Bates had only 29 errors. Even given how they have been trending upward in the last few weeks, their performance against Tufts surprised a lot of people around the league. The consensus is that Tufts, Amherst, and Wesleyan have separated themselves, but Bates is closing fast on that trio heading into the playoffs.

Stock Down

1. Middlebury Hitting – Almost anyway you slice it, this was the worst hitting team in the NESCAC. Not to say that the hitting was the only reason why Middlebury struggled, because their pitching wasn’t much better, but it at least offered some decent performances. The only bright spot in the lineup was senior leadoff hitter Alex Kelly ’14. As soon as Dylan Sinnickson ’15 and Hunter Merryman ’15 announced that they weren’t going to be playing baseball, we knew the lineup was going to struggle, but Kelly was left almost without any support. Kelly had 14 more total bases and 11 more runs than anyone else on the Panthers along with the highest batting average and slugging percentage. With Kelly graduating, players who flashed promise like Max Araya ’16 and Jason Lock ’17 will have to become much more consistent in order for Middlebury to improve.

2. Andrew Vandini ’16 Infielder (Amherst) – In the weekend preview for April 18 we highlighted Vandini as an under appreciated cog of the Amherst offense. Since then he has not had multiple hits in any of his last twelve games. In fact that very weekend he went 1-15 from the leadoff spot. That prompted him to move from first to the two hole where he continued to struggle. He has been dropped down to near the end of the lineup in what has been part of a reshuffling of the Amherst offense as a whole. His season performance is still very respectable considering he has a .412 OBP, but he is representative of a perceptible drop in Amherst’s play in the last few weekends of conference play. They played well this weekend winning all four games, but both games against Colby were close fought battles. In the second game a Connor Gunn ’16 single scored two to give Amherst the walk-off 4-3 win. Vandini and the rest of the Jeffs have to pick it up just a little bit to repeat last years run.

3. Kyle Slinger ’15 Starting Pitcher (Tufts) – Given how dominant Slinger was pitching for most of the season, it isn’t a surprise that teams have started to hit him just a little bit. It started with Bowdoin tagging him for two runs in seven innings. That might not seem like cause for concern, but it was the most anyone had hit against him in weeks. The downward trend worsened when he let up three runs and eight hits against Bates. Those aren’t bad stats, but he only lasted five innings, forcing the Tufts bullpen to throw four innings. Tom Ryan ’15 and Mike Moser ’16 weren’t up for the task as they let up the lead. It is clear that Slinger has to be better this weekend for Tufts to win it all. A great long start by him will have the domino effect of causing the rest of the pitching staff to be fully rested for just a few games.

The Weekend Preview April 25

The Overview:

This weekend is shaping up to be the best kind of weekend New England can offer. There’s some beautiful spring weather on the horizon, I might not have a massive paper to write, and of course, there’s a full slate of NESCAC baseball games to enjoy. Every NESCAC team is in action this weekend, and every in-conference series has implications for playoff seeding. So, without further ado, let’s dig into these match-ups.

The Marquee Matchup: Wesleyan at Amherst

There is a clear series that stands out as the pivotal battle of the weekend, and that would be Amherst versus Wesleyan. The Jeffs and the Cardinals have been locked in a season-long battle for supremacy in the West, and they come into this series tied at 8-1 in the league, with Amherst holding a better record overall by one game (22-5 vs. 21-6). The winner of this series is assured of a number one seed from the West, and has a very good shot of reaching the NESCAC final.

Wesleyan can attribute much of their success to a wonderfully efficient offense, which has posted a league leading batting average (.321) and one base percentage (.416). Their pitching staff has come into its own during NESCAC play, posting a 1.70 ERA since league play began, making this team truly complete. The offense is spearheaded by freshman phenom Robby Harbison ’17 (league leader in hitting at .427), and Sam Goodwin-Boyd ’15, who paces the NESCAC with 29 RBI. The table is set for the solid hitters up and down the lineup by Andrew Yin ’14 and Donnie Cimino ’15, who get on base at .476 and .443 clips, and lead the league in runs with 31 and 32, respectively. The pitching staff is led by flame-throwing ace Nick Cooney ’15, who comes in at 5-1 and leads the league in strikeouts with 50 in 46 innings. Gavin Pittore ’16 and Jeff Blount ’14 round out the weekend starters.

Amherst comes in with an equally dangerous lineup. They are led by MVP-candidate Mike Odenwaelder ’16, who’s hitting .419 with a 1.057 OPS. He is flanked by shortstop Taiki Kasuga ’14, who’s hitting .392, and centerfielder Alex Hero ’14, who’s hitting .337 and is second in the league in steals. Like Wesleyan, Amherst’s table-setters, Kasuga and second baseman Andrew Vandini ’16 (.427 OBP) do a fantastic job getting on base in front of the sluggers in the middle of the order, making for a potent lineup. In the rotation, Dylan Driscoll ’16 continues to set the standard for NESCAC pitchers this season, with a 1.26 ERA and 6 wins. Fellow starter Jeff Cook ’15 has been great this season with 43 strikeouts and just 3 walks in 35 innings and earned NESCAC Pitcher of the Week honors last week. The big question for Amherst is whether SP Fred Shephard ’14, who tossed a no-hitter earlier this season, will be able to go. Shephard missed last week’s start against Middlebury with elbow pain. Keenan Szulik ’16 started in Shephard’s place against Middlebury and did an admirable job, but Wesleyan’s hitters should be licking their chops if they get a chance to face Szulik instead of Shephard.

Despite the offensive firepower that both teams possess, this series will be determined by the pitching. The two southpaws, Cook and Cooney, will likely meet up this afternoon. Driscoll and Blout are usually the seven-inning game starters for both squads, so look for them to pitch game one on Saturday, while the series finale should pit Pittore against Shephard or his replacement.

The race for best pitcher in the West:

While the East’s pitching is indisputably deeper than that in the West, Amherst and Wesleyan’s starting rotations can match up with anyone. That will be on display this weekend in Amherst, as Cooney, Driscoll and Cook battle for the ERA crown. All three pitchers have excellent stuff, and can strike out anyone in a big spot. The one wart on Cooney’s resume is his control issues (3.39 BB/9), which can sometimes get him into trouble. Driscoll very rarely hurts himself (5.57 K/BB), and that is the main explanation for his miniscule 1.26 ERA. However, Cook might have the best stuff of the group. He matches Cooney’s velocity with Driscoll’s accuracy. Cook has 43 K’s in 35 innings and just three walks (14.33 K/BB). He gets hit only because he is consistently in the strike zone. Right now, Driscoll leads the way in ERA, but Cooney (2.70) and Cook (2.83) are not far behind.

Around the League:

Bates, Bowdoin and Colby are all pretty close in the race for the second seed in the East, so this weekend will decide the race. Barring a major upset this weekend when Tufts travels to Brunswick to play Bowdoin, the winner of the Colby at Bates series will make the playoffs as the second seed in the East. Bates currently sits at 4-3, and has two games remaining with the Jumbos after this weekend. Colby and Bowdoin, meanwhile, are 4-5. With just two wins, Bates will secure their playoff spot because they hold the tiebreaker over Bowdoin (unless Bowdoin can sweep Tufts).

The series between Hamilton and Williams has no implications for the postseason, but the two squads are fighting for the third seed in the West.

Trinity and Middlebury have no more playoff hopes going into this East vs. West matchup, but pride is still a motivating factor in these games, which is part of what makes sports so great. Both teams have been disappointing to this point, and want to prove that they won’t roll over. I fully expect the games between Middlebury and Trinity to be hard fought, competitive and fun to watch, just like those between Amherst and Wesleyan.

Here’s a look at Friday’s schedule:
Tufts at Bowdoin 3 PM
Colby at Bates 3 PM
Wesleyan at Amherst 3 PM

Enjoy the final weekend of a full NESCAC slate.

 

Mid-Season Awards

With a few weekends left before the season draws to a close we thought now was a good time to put forth our awards for the year thus far. We took into account the entire season, but weighted conference performance above all.

West Division

Courtesy of Amherst Athletics
Courtesy of Amherst Athletics

MVP – Mike Odenwaelder ’16 Outfielder/Pitcher (Amherst) – Odenwaelder wins by a thread over many other deserving candidates. Odenwaelder is thumping the ball all over the place with a .447 average and top-notch .697 slugging percentage. He leads Amherst with 21 RBIs and is tied with Connor Gunn ’16 with three homers. All that being said, what puts him over the top is his mound dominance. The sophomore is so talented that he has pitched 20.2 innings for a team loaded with pitching. His 1.74 ERA is the sixth best mark in the NESCAC and he has held opponents to a .123 average. The only runs he has allowed were in his first appearance of the season. Odenwaelder is not one of the weekend starters (yes, Amherst is that talented), but his arm is one of the most electric in the league.

Honorable Mention- Joe Jensen ’15 (Hamilton), Donnie Cimino ’15 (Wesleyan), Alex Kelly ’14 (Middlebury) and Matt Kastner ’14 (Williams)

Courtesy of Amherst Athletics
Courtesy of Amherst Athletics

Most Valuable Pitcher – Dylan Driscoll ’14 (Amherst) – Amherst garners another award because one of the main reasons Odenwaelder isn’t starting is the performance of the Jeffs’ other starters, Driscoll in particular. The only team that has gotten to Driscoll is Williams, who roughed up the righty for six runs. Besides that, Driscoll has allowed one run in four starts which all lasted at least seven innings. A 1.50 ERA through 36 innings is nothing to scoff at. He barely walks anybody, yielding only four free passes on the season, but he still strikes batters out at a 8.50 K/9 rate. The senior is the leader of a staff that is deep in experience and talent.

Honorable Mention- Jjay Lane ’15 (Hamilton), Nick Cooney ’15 (Wesleyan) and John Cook ’15 (Amherst)

Courtesy of Hamilton Athletics
Courtesy of Hamilton Athletics

Most Improved Player – Joe Jensen ’15 Outfielder (Hamilton) – Last season Jensen was a stolen base savant who got on-base at an about league average rate of .347. This season, however, the Hamiltonian lead-off man has morphed into an on-base machine still capable of wreaking havoc on the base paths. A big reason for his .514 OBP is that he doesn’t strike out often while also drawing a lot of walks. He has as many walks, 10, as strikeouts. That, coupled with speed that earned him a second-place finish in the 400m final at the March NCAA Indoor Championships, Jensen maximizes his chances of getting on-base even when he doesn’t connect with the ball well. He has been carrying the Hamilton offense for most of the season.

Honorable Mention – Andrew Vandini ’16 (Amherst), Luke Pierce ’16 (Williams) and Max Araya ’16 (Middlebury)

Courtesy of Williams Athletics
Courtesy of Williams Athletics

Rookie of the Year – Jack Cloud ’17 Outfielder (Williams) – Wesleyan’s Robby Harbison is making a strong push for this award right now, but Cloud’s body of work is better at this point. An OBP of .459 and slugging percentage of .600 would be exceptional for a senior, and to do it as a freshman is almost unheard of. After only striking out only once in his first 11 games, Cloud has been rung up 10 times in his last six contests, but he is still getting on-base, having hit safely in five of those last six. He has not kept up the torrid pace he established at the beginning of the season, but those numbers were almost impossible to continue.

Honorable Mention – Robby Harbison ’17 (Wesleyan), Ellis Schaefer ’17 (Wesleyan), Kenny Collins ’17 (Hamilton) and Jason Lock ’17 (Middlebury)

East Division

Courtesy of Colby Athletics
Courtesy of Colby Athletics

MVP – Jason Buco ’15 Outfielder (Colby) – This pick might come as a surprise to some. Nobody in the East sticks out from the crowd, but Buco gets the nod over a number of others. A case could be made that teammate Kevin Galvin ’14 is having a slightly better season offensively. His OBP of .469 is 50 percentage points better than Buco’s, more than making up for Buco’s 48 percentage points advantage in slugging percentage. One big difference is that Buco’s defense has been much better. Galvin plays a more demanding position in third base, but his fielding percentage of .806 is still far too low. Buco’s four home runs is tied for tops in the league. Also a star on the football team, Buco is helping to turn around two programs at Colby that are hitting new heights.

Honorable Mention – Kevin Galvin ’14 (Colby), Chad Martin ’16 (Bowdoin), Kevin Davis ’14 (Bates), Griffin Tewksbury ’14 (Bates) and Max Freccia ’14 (Tufts)

Courtesy of Tufts Athletics
Courtesy of Tufts Athletics

Most Valuable Pitcher – Kyle Slinger ’15 (Tufts) – No award is easier to hand out than this one. That is saying a lot considering that the top four and nine of the top 11 league leaders in ERA pitch in the East. Despite that, no pitcher can touch Slinger’s dominance so far. To quickly reiterate what we wrote on Monday, Slinger has a 0.66 ERA and .136 opponents’ batting average for the season. He strikes out one batter an inning and hasn’t allowed a run in his last three starts. The only wart on his resume is the 19 walks he has handed out thus far, but the walk issue is the equivalent of punctuation error in a Pulitzer Prize novel. Slinger has been so good that he garnered consideration for MVP of the East. A plethora of other pitchers are throwing great this season, but nobody can match the Tufts ace.

Honorable Mention: Scott Goldberg ’15 (Colby), Tim Superko ’17 (Tufts), Brad Reynolds ’14 (Bates) and Harry Ridge ’16 (Bowdoin)

Courtesy of Colby Athletics
Courtesy of Colby Athletics

Most Improved Player – Scott Goldberg ’15 Starting Pitcher (Colby) – When Goldberg got off to a fast start this season some questioned his ability to maintain it given how much he struggled last season. And yet, Goldberg has actually gotten better as the season goes on. He stumbled a bit against Trinity before tossing a gem against Bowdoin going eight innings while allowing two (unearned) runs. A season after posting a 5.50 ERA, he is the justified owner of a mark five times as low: 1.05. Goldberg is also striking out batters at a prodigious rate of 10.52 per nine innings. This award could just as easily have gone to fellow Mule Kevin Galvin ’14, who is enjoying a huge bump in production as well.

Honorable Mentions: Peter Cimini ’16 (Bowdoin), Brian Wolfe ’15 (Trinity) and Kevin Galvin ’14 (Colby)

Courtesy of Tufts Athletics
Courtesy of Tufts Athletics

Rookie of the Year – Tim Superko ’17 Starting Pitcher (Tufts) – If it wasn’t for how well Slinger has been pitching, Superko would be neck and neck with Goldberg for best pitcher in the East. For now he has to be content with being seen as the understudy to Master Slinger. Keep in mind, he is no slouch of an understudy, the owner of a 1.04 ERA and eye-catching 11.77 K/9. His two wins undersells the impact he has had for the Jumbos as a freshman. Last weekend the bullpen blew a lead after Superko threw five innings of one run ball. One knock of him is that he has only pitched 26 innings while never going more than six in a start. As Tufts takes any restrictions off him, Superko will only continue to improve. As an aside, the East is definitely lacking in impact freshmen overall when compared to the West.

Honorable Mention – Ryder Arsenault ’17 (Colby) and Tom Petry ’17 (Tufts)

 

Tell us what you think, where we went wrong and who we missed in the comments section.