Weekend Preview: September 27

The biggest change a team can make from week to week comes after week 1 and leading into week 2. Nothing can replicate game speed, and after coaches are able to look back at game tape for the first time and make adjustments, teams can look very different. Consider in week 1 last year Williams got blown out by Colby 31-6. Then a week later Trinity needed two A.J. Jones ’14 touchdown receptions in the fourth quarter to keep the Ephs from ending the Trinity home winning streak. More on the Williams-Trinity matchup later.

The overarching story line to watch this week is how teams perform on the road. In our opinion, only one team (Wesleyan at home against Hamilton) can be considered the favorite at home. The last time four road teams won in one weekend was actually this same week two years ago with the exact same slate of games. A home underdog springing an upset would mean a disturbance in the early season hierarchy, even if it is a momentary blip.

Three to Watch

1. Quarterback Austin Lommen ’16 (Williams)- I know that we focus a lot on Lommen and Williams prospects for improvement, but this is the week that we really learn how far Lommen can take the Ephs. Last week he was able to lean on a great defensive effort and running attack against Bowdoin. He was efficient going 18-27  for 184 yards and one touchdown. Still Trinity will make him do a lot more in order to beat them. They have the strength to slow down running back Alex Scyorcurka ’14 enough to make Lommen have to make throws. It is clear that Lommen has great chemistry with his high school teammate Steven Kiesel. He will need to find the open receiver as Kiesel will likely face tight coverage from either Mike Mancini ’15 or Brian Dones ’17.

2. Linebacker Addison Pierce ’17 (Middlebury)- The Panther defense rose to the occasion last week especially in the run game, and Pierce was a player who had a breakout game. He played a lot freshman year finishing fifth on the team in tackles, but last week was special. He totaled ten tackles including three and a half TFLs (tackles for loss), equal to his total TFLs for all of 2013. The Panthers got penetration into the backfield all day from their linebackers stopping Kyle Gibson and co. before they could get momentum. This week is another interesting matchup for the Midd defense against a Colby offense that actually ran the ball effectively against Trinity.

3. Running back Ivan Reese ’17 (Bates)- Last week Amherst shut down the inside running game for Bates holding Reese to only 19 yards on 10 carries. In fairness, Amherst was perfectly designed to shut down the interior given all the talent up front on defense. 19 yards should be by far the least amount of yards that Reese gets in any game. The interior of the Tufts defense should not present the same problems Amherst did so look for Reese to be fed the ball early and often in the home opener for Bates. The offense needs to improve on their execution from week one in order not to waste another great performance from the defense.

Austin Lommen '16 in action against Bowdoin (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)
Austin Lommen ’16 in action against Bowdoin (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)

The Picks

Game of the Week- Trinity (1-0) at Williams (1-0)

Williams fans are riding high after opening their new field with a thumping of Bowdoin. A victory this week would put them into a tizzy. The Bantams are feeling pretty good themselves after taking it to Colby in the second half to run away with the win. Our writers Sean Meekins ’15 and Carson Kenney ’15, both Trinity students, put Williams above Trinity in their power rankings. Maybe it was just a psychological play to fire up the Bantams, but the point remains that after week one, this matchup got a little more interesting.

As we mentioned above, Williams almost shocked Trinity in Hartford last year. The stats tell us this was not the result of any fluke luck. The teams had essentially the same amount of yards, first downs, yards per play, and penalties. The difference was Williams’ four turnovers to Trinity’s one. The play of the game came when Brian Dones ’17 picked off Tom Murphy ’15 in the final minute to set up the winning touchdown for Trinity.

Lommen has to avoid making those type of mistakes for Williams to win. Williams will make a strong commitment to running the ball especially given how Carl Lipani ’17 was able to run for 133 yards last week. Some of Williams biggest plays in week one came on screens and draws where they were able to give Scyocurka and Jean Luc Etienne ’15 space to work with. The experienced Trinity linebackers will likely snuff that type of play out meaning the Ephs will have to manufacture big plays down the field.

On the other side of the ball the decisive matchup is between the Trinity offensive line and the Williams defensive front seven. James Howe ’16 will need to get help from his cohorts which might not include defensive tackle Adam Datema ’15 this week. Chudi Iregbulem ’15 and company enjoyed success mainly in the second half after wearing down Colby because Trinity held the ball for 37 minutes. The Williams defense has to make sure Trinity does not get into a rhythm running the ball. These are two teams similar in ethos that have seen every game between them since 2006 decided by eight points or less.

Prediction: Trinity 22 over Williams 17

Middlebury (0-1) at Colby (0-1)- These are two teams both coming off tough losses that look very comparable. The Mules were feeling good at halftime against Trinity down only a safety and getting the ball to start the second half. Then things fell apart pretty quickly and Colby ended up losing 32-7. Middlebury had a chance to tie Wesleyan at the end of regulation before a near blocked punt turned into a game ending roughing the kicker penalty. Colby has to do a better job of not letting up the big play, whether that’s on offense or defense. How the Colby secondary plays against a Middlebury offense that outgained Wesleyan last week will be the difference.

Prediction: Middlebury 31 over Colby 23

Amherst (1-0) at Bowdoin (0-1)- Quick disclaimer/heads up: I am doing the color commentary for this game on the Bowdoin webcast through NSN. Bowdoin could take few positives away from the game against Williams. Expect them to open things up more on offense to keep Amherst off balance because running against the Jeffs is very difficult. Amherst has to cut down on the turnovers that helped Bates almost beat them last week. Keeping Alex Berluti ’17 in the pocket is a must for the Polar Bears. If he escapes and makes one player miss, he can easily rip off a 30 yard run. Bowdoin always seems to play Amherst tough especially in the first half, but it will be tough for them to make enough plays to win.

Prediction: Amherst 20 over Bowdoin 6

Bates (0-1) at Tufts (1-0)- The Jumbos were able to celebrate their first win in four years last weekend, and it will be interesting to see how the team plays this week. Preparation against Bates is crucial, and if Tufts spent too long in the glow of their victory they will be in trouble tomorrow. The Bates running game should get more traction this week than it did against Amherst.  This is a must win game for Bates to gain momentum before they face Williams and Wesleyan at home in back to back weeks. Expect the Bobcat defense to really clamp down and frustrate the Tufts offense.

Prediction: Bates 23 over Tufts 13

Hamilton (0-1) at Wesleyan (1-0)- The Cardinals blitzkrieged their first four opponents in 2013, and Hamilton was no exception. This game was over last year after the first drive of the third quarter when LaDarius Drew broke off a 76 yard touchdown run to put Wesleyan up 28-0. It is still unclear if Drew will play this week after missing last week due to injury. Chase Rosenberg ’17 will put the ball in the air a lot again this week for the Continentals, but expect the Wesleyan defense to pick a couple of those passes off.

Prediction: Wesleyan 31 over Hamilton 10

Last week: 5-0

Season: 5-0

Handicapping the Player of the Year Races

Predicting the potential Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year is about searching for trends in the voting pattern of the NESCAC coaches. Seven of the last eight Offensive POY were quarterbacks, and six of the last seven Defensive POY were linebackers. With that being said, this season looks like it could be very different.

Offensive Player of the Year

The Favorite: Running Back LaDarius Drew ’15 (Wesleyan) – Both All-NESCAC QBs from last season are gone, and Drew looks to be the feature running back on the most explosive offense in the league. He averaged 4.6 yards per carry and scored 10 touchdowns including a 167 yard performance against Bowdoin last year. However, he slowed down as the year went along, averaging under four yards per carry in three of his final four games. Also, Kyle Gibson ’15 will also take a lot of carries and was actually more productive per rush in 2013. Drew could run into a situation where the Wesleyan coaches decide to only give him about 15 carries a game (he averaged 20.5 in 2013), letting Gibson run more, and keeping Drew from putting up big numbers.

Contenders:

Quarterback Jesse Warren ’15 (Wesleyan) – If carries are split by Drew and Gibson then Warren could win if he repeats his efficiency from last season but with slightly more production. Another 15:3 TD:INT ratio will give him a good shot.

Wide Receiver Luke Duncklee ’15 (Colby) – The most productive receiver in the NESCAC will collect a lot of credit if Gabe Harrington ’17 has a seamless transition to the starting role. Fellow receiver Nick Joseph ’15 will also need a good season to make sure teams can’t key on Duncklee.

Quarterback Matt Cannone ’16 (Bates) – After seeing Cannone in action in the scrimmage against Colby, it was clear the junior has made major improvements to his game especially in the passing game. He will rack up both passing and rushing yards in the Bates offense.

Running Back Alex Scyocurka ’14 (Williams) – Opponents keyed on Scyocurka a lot meaning he averaged only 3.3 yards per carry, but he should be able to punish defenses with a more balanced attack this season, and he’s as healthy as he’s ever been, so perhaps he can get closer to the 5.3 yards per rush he averaged in 2012. An improvement as a team will also help his prospects, though he has to cut down on the four fumbles from a year ago.

Wide Receiver Gene Garay ’15 (Amherst)-  The only other receiver who looks to have a shot at POY honors is Garay. The senior was the leading receiver for Amherst last season and should see even more targets with Jake O’Malley graduated. He is also helped by the potential for big plays in the return game.

The Darkhorse: Running Back Chudi Iregbulem ’15 (Trinity) – Iregbulem has not seen the field very much because of all the talent in front of him, but now he steps to the forefront. He will get the majority share of carries in tandem with Jacob Rivers ’15. His 7.2 yards per carry average is inflated somewhat because it came at the end of blowouts against tired defenses. Consider his potential a tacit compliment to the entire Trinity offensive line who will deserve much of the credit if he has a great season.

Defensive Player of the Year

The Favorite: Defensive End James Howe ’16 (Williams)

Howe was the only sophomore selected to the All-NESCAC First Team in 2013. He tallied 55 tackles, which is impressive for a lineman, especially given the fact that teams would choose to run the opposite way if given the choice, seven more than the next-highest total by a lineman, Colby defensive end Caleb Harris ’15. Howe led the league in sacks with 10, 2.5 more than Harris, and was one behind Amherest linebacker Chris Tamasi ’15 with 17 tackles for loss. Usually linebackers get the most recognition because they are asked to do the most on the field, but Howe is on another level compared to his peers. His pressure and dominance on the line makes the linebackers’ and defensive backs’ jobs easier, and for that he comes into 2014 as the favorite to bring home this honor.

Contenders:

Linebacker Tim Patricia ’16 (Middlebury) It’s been noted before, but the tackle numbers on defenses like Middlebury and Tufts are inflated because their offenses run so many plays. Nevertheless, Patricia is a playmaker. The former Rookie of the Year has been a force in the Middlebury for the Panthers since day one. It’s not his athletic tools that make him a great tackler, but his football IQ. Proof that his numbers are not just a product of high play totals: Patricia accounted for almost 14 percent of Middlebury’s tackles and over 13 percent of solos. Leading tackler Joey Cleary ’14 tallied just over 16 percent of Bowdoin’s tackles and just under 16 percent of solos.

Safety Jake Bussani ’14 (Wesleyan) The only thing that might keep Bussani from making a run for DPOY honors is the wealth of talent surrounding him on defense, but the graduate has made the All-NESCAC First Team in three straight seasons. His stats weren’t as impressive as in the previous two seasons, but that doesn’t mean that his play has tapered off.

Defensive End Caleb Harris ’15 (Colby) We already mentioned Harris above, but it’s worth reiterating that Harris was the cornerstone of the best run defense in the league last season, and was only six off the pace for most tackles on his own team.

Linebacker Chris Tamasi ’15 (Amherst) Much like the next name on this list, what sets Tamasi apart is his ability to penetrate the backfield. Tamasi led the NESCAC with 18 tackles for loss and had four sacks, tying with teammate Ned Deane ’15 for the most among linebackers.

Linebacker Mike Weatherby ’14 (Trinity) A year after making the All-NESCAC First Team for the first time, Weatherby is back for a fifth year at the heart of the Bantams defense. Weatherby is great at stopping the ball carrier behind the line of scrimmage, as he racked up just one sack in 2013 but 11 tackles for loss.

Cornerback Brian Dones ’15 (Trinity) It’s tough to leave out Dones’ teammate, safety Mike Mancini ’15, but the corner might be the best pass defender in the league. His three interceptions and 11 pass breakups were both tops in the NESCAC, and his 1.8 pass breakups per game was tied for 11th in the nation. Teams might choose to throw away from Dones this year, but expect him to still make some big plays.

The Darkhorse: Safety/Linebacker Gilbert Brown ’15 (Bates) Brown fills the “down safety” position in Bates’ 3-3 stack defense, a position that requires a great deal of versatility. This allows Brown to be a factor in both the run and pass game, and on occasion he will be called on to create pressure on the quarterback. He racked up 42 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss, one sack, two interceptions and two pass breakups in 2013. Bates’ defense should be much improved this season with a bunch of starters returning, and Brown could elevate his game and become a game plan player around the NESCAC.

Anyone you think we missed? Let us know in the comments.