Not a whole lot has changed from last week other than the fact that Williams is no longer undefeated. With that said though, they proved that they are significantly ahead of any sort of rebuilding designation and that they are above the bottom half of the league no question. Their strong defensive effort against the Bantams, including a shut down of Max Chipouras really showed the rest of the NESCAC that they are ready to make the leap to the next step. What we saw in the other four games did not surprise anybody, and at this point Hamilton has all but rejoined the bottom tier of the league after their exciting week one game. Not much has changed, but here’s where they stand:
I thought about moving the Bantams down, but they have still only allowed nine points all season and that is not enough of a negative to knock them off of their pedestal. Max Chipouras’ 2.9 yards per carry are a slight cause of concern heading into what’s basically an assured win against Hamilton. My concern is that now he is no longer the NESCAC God of Running. He had a bad game, but still scored a TD and his team can likely win on Saturday with a blindfold on. Until they face a better team, it will be hard to tell exactly how unbelievable this team is, but for now they are ready to roll to 4-0.
Middlebury is coming off their second straight win against a sub-par opponent and looks ready to take on Amherst. While they lack a significant running game at this point, young Charlie Ferguson ’21 is averaging nearly 7 yards per carry in his 15 touches this season. While it is a limited sample size, he has filled in nicely the past two games in low pressure situations while Diego Meritus rehabs on his way back to the field. If Meritus comes back strongly, then Midd will be firing on all cylinders.
Amherst is in a virtual tie with Midd for the second spot on these rankings, but due to their schedule weakness up to this point they are slightly below. They will face their first tough competition this weekend against the Panthers but with Jack Hickey, an array of solid receivers and a middle-tier NESCAC QB in Ollie Eberth, they don’t have much to worry about in terms of overall position. Kicker John Rak had an uncharacteristically unsuccessful performance by missing three field goals, and he needs to flip the switch for this Saturday because it will be the first time there is any pressure on him all season. Their game against Midd will likely come down to the wire and he needs to be ready to boot it through the uprights from deep, maybe even over 50 yards like last year. There are no major concerns with this team right now, but unless they show some more prowess this weekend, they might not be quite as elite as Midd and Trinity.
By virtue of their opening week loss, this is where the Cardinals sit in the rankings, although they have had a tough schedule up to this point. They knocked off Tufts in OT which was a great sign for their ability to beat the top teams in the conference, and they have what should be two easy wins coming up. They shouldn’t have any issue with Colby or Bates and will be heading into a week six matchup against Amherst with a 4-1 record barring an impossible upset. While QB Mark Piccirillo has been finding the end zone just fine, there is a concern with his high turnover numbers as he has already tossed five picks in three games. They showed that Hamilton is indeed a weaker opponent with a blowout win and their defense has been strong thus far. Their one concern would be the rush D which allowed over 200 yards on the ground two weeks ago. They should sit pretty in this spot, and maybe move up to #3 depending on the outcome of the Midd/Amherst game.
Tufts only cruised to their win against Bates after the first half, showing weaknesses in their defense by allowing the poor Bobcat offense to score 17 points. Their holes were in the rush defense, and it was the starters who showed the weakness. Bates scored all of their points in the first half, and this game was never totally out of hand. The Jumbos have allowed more rush yards than any of the teams above them in these rankings. Also with only four turnovers on defense, they lack the stoppage power that Trinity and Amherst have while also seeing their run game disappear from last year. Ryan McDonald looked great last weekend though and the duel threat QB is carrying the Jumbos up to this point. They should have an easy time against Bowdoin this weekend, heading into their daunting week five matchup against Trinity.
They are close to passing Tufts on these rankings with their strong defensive performance against Trinity. Their only fault so far is that they don’t have a win against a top tier team, and while Tufts doesn’t either, they still took Wesleyan to OT. Allowing the aforementioned 2.9 yards per carry to Chipouras and just 163 yards passing to Sonny Puzzo, they look capable of quieting any offense. Bobby Maimaron ’21 showed weakness for the first time this season, but did so against the league’s best defense in the Bantams. As an added bonus they have possibly the best athlete in the NESCAC in Adam Regensburg ’18 who played WR, DB, and was an unreal punter last weekend. Oh yeah, he starts on the baseball team too. Look for them to handily beat Bates.
Ok so now it’s been three weeks, and other than one close game, Hamilton has looked pretty bad. So why are they sitting at 7th on the rankings and not lower? Well, first of all, they are the only team at this point that has shown any possibility of beating or competing with one of the top teams, and they also have only faced the upper echelon of the NESCAC. Kenny Gray has looked servicable thus far, but without a strong running game, they lack the tools for offensive sustainability in competition with the top dawgs. Their defensive line also has some work to do as they sacked Piccirillo just one time last weekend, allowing him ample time in the pocket. On the bright side, Bryce Phillips and Justin Leigh both had INTs giving me just enough hope that they can beat the bottom teams in the conference. They won’t beat Trinity, but after this week, they will have ended their streak of a brutal strength of schedule.
Well at this point you can pretty much chalk Bowdoin’s predicted game outcomes to a score of about 30-40 points allowed and 14 points scored. They have only faced winning teams thus far and could have success against Bates, Colby, and Hamilton, but still need to show some hope for preventing huge scores on defense. Griff Stalcup ’21 looks to be the QB of the future for the Polar Bears as he took over the starting job and played decently in his second start of the year, making great strides from the first one. He was able to find the end zone for the first time in his passing career, racking up TDs thrown to Bryan Porter and Nick Vallas, the strongest Bowdoin offensive pieces. Like Hamilton, they lacked much presence on their D-line and gave Ollie Eberth plenty of time in the pocket. With another tough contest coming up against Tufts, they probably won’t find the win column this weekend.
The Bobcat offense looked much improved against Tufts, actually staying in the game until well into the fourth quarter. With new QB Brendan Costa under center, effectively benching Sandy Plashkes, the Bobcats had a bit more life. Costa showed similarly to Plashkes in ’16 that he can run it a little bit, finding the end zone and accumulating 97 yards on just 16 carries. Granted, one of those was a 70 yard run, proving his other 15 carries non-impactful, but that big play speed is just what Bates needs. Bates matched Tufts with four tackles for losses, but their secondary appeared continually weak by allowing four TD passes to McDonald. Bates should hope Costa keeps improving as his long TD run is basically their lone bright spot up to this point in the season. Look for them to compete initially but fall true to their lack of scoring against Williams.
Bates and Colby are kind of rotating in and out of this last spot by virtue of which team played a worse game the week before. The Mules looked bad against Middlebury last weekend. With just 112 yards passing and 179 yards of total offense, they never stood a chance. Here was the positive: They actually won the first quarter. From then on it was bad news. They were outscored 33-0 the rest of the game, and couldn’t even make their extra point. Don Vivian added a pick on Lebowitz too putting Colby at third place on total turnovers so far. They should compete against Bowdoin and Bates, and just maybe Hamilton, but that’s about it.