Chaos in the East: Weekend Preview

Brendan Fox '17 is the only consistent weapon right now on a Bates team trying to make its third straight playoff appearance. (Courtesy of Bates Athletics)
Brendan Fox ’17 is the only consistent weapon right now on a Bates team trying to make its third straight playoff appearance. (Courtesy of Bates Athletics)

It might sound crass to say it so early in the conference season, but Wesleyan, Amherst and Tufts are all going to make the playoffs. I feel very confident saying that, though I hope that somebody proves me wrong. If that is the case, the most intriguing part of the regular season is seeing who gets that second spot out of the East. Bates has grabbed it the past two seasons, but both years they did it with a less than sterling 7-5 record. So who is it going to be in the second spot in the East this year?

This weekend will go a long way towards sorting that out with the four East Division teams besides Tufts meeting in conference series. Trinity (2-1 in conference) travels to Maine to play Colby who has yet to start their conference slate. Bates (0-2) and Bowdoin (1-2) meet in games that could almost eliminate the series loser from the playoff race. Projecting these two series is difficult, but that is what makes it fun.

As always, keep an eye on the weather too. The fields have taken a beating this week, and while the skies look fairly clear for the weekend, play today could be slightly disrupted.

Three to Watch

1. 1B Chad Martin ’16 (Bowdoin): That Polar Bear offense sputtered against Trinity as Bowdoin lost two of three. Martin has to get on track as the star in the middle of the lineup if Bowdoin is going to do well. He has an OBP. below .300 and a slugging percentage less than .400 so things have not gone for the All-NESCAC Second Teamer. The one silver lining is that he has two home runs, and that is a sign that he is still hitting the ball hard at points. My best guess is that he is trying to do too much righ now because he knows how much Bowdoin relies on him. Soooo, maybe not a good idea to put even more pressure on him, especially since I’m a Bowdoin fan. Ehh, whatever. I believe in Martin, and so should you.

2. IF Connor Reenstierma ’16 (Bates): Another offense that sputtered last weekend: that would the Bates Bobcats. What is killing Bates is not that they don’t have one guy doing great. Brendan Fox ’17 is having a fantastic junior season and is batting well above .400. The problem is that every single other guy is hitting well below their capabilities. Reenstierma is a guy that is great at getting on base. Though his batting average is usually much lower, he excels at working the count. Getting on-base alone might not be enough for Bates to get a good offense this weekend, but it would certainly help a lot. Bates is going to have to grind for everything they get all season, and this is the weekend when the grinding has to happen a lot.

3. P Ethan Rode ’17 (Wesleyan): I’m not paying any attention at all to the West, but there is the potential for one of the underdogs in the West to pull a fast one. Wesleyan is HOT right now winning their past seven games. One of the reasons for that is that Rode has gotten back on track. Things went as bad as they could in his first two appearances. Since then, he has delivered three dynamite starts for the Cardinals. In those three starts he has a 1.28 ERA. That should make other NESCAC teams very worried. Wesleyan’s offense has not fallen off from last season, and the possibility of Rode and Peter Rantz ’16 forming a formidable top of the rotation could spell game over.

Colby vs. Trinity Preview

The Bantams series win last weekend has them thinking playoffs, but Trinity won two of three last year against Bowdoin and still finished well outside the playoff race so don’t put too much stock in that. The Mules have struggled mightily so far this season, and there are real questions about the depth of talent on the roster.

You should know that Soren Hanson ’16 is a two-way stud for Colby, and he has been lights out on the mound with a 0.89 ERA in 20.1 IP. The Mules desperately need somebody else to deliver a quality start . I’m also intrigued with how Colby uses Hanson. Do they start him in the nine inning Friday game or save him for Saturday? I prefer pitching him Game 1 on Saturday since it is much more likely that he is able to go all seven than all nine on Friday. Nothing would be worse for the Mules than for Hanson to throw a gem for most of the game Friday, only for the bullpen to blow it late.

Trinity will probably toss Jed Robinson ’16 on Friday and Anthony Egeln ’18 has solidified that second spot. The third starter last week was Chris Speer ’17, and he is likely to start again. The games could easily hinge on an error by either team, and that favors the Bantams. I want to put my faith in the team from Hartford given the track record of that program, but it still isn’t clear if there is a lot of young talent beyond Brendan Pierce ’18. Even so, Colby is very down this year, and I think the Bantams become the frontrunner to get that second spot.

Prediction: Trinity wins two of three

Bowdoin vs. Bates Preview

I’ve already talked a little bit about how both offenses have struggled this season. That means pitching this weekend entails making no mistakes, ala walking a lot of batters or serving up a meatball in the wrong situation.

In this type of situation I give Bates the advantage because of their more experienced pitchers, but Bowdoin is still capable of throwing two seniors in Harry Ridge ’16 and Michael Staes ’16 that have the stuff to shut down a lineup. The weather in Maine is going to be cold and rainy, and that means pitchers have the advantage. Any fly ball is going to die in the air, not to mention the discomfort hitters will experience at the plate.

Both of these programs are solid, but they have not been able to scratch above that upper-middle class status at any point recently. It doesn’t appear that this year is going to be particularly different, and the first weekends games were downright disturbing. At the same time, a lot of talent remains on both of these squads. Sombody young might step up and make the difference, but my money is on old stalwarts like Rob DiFranco ’16 or Sean Mullaney ’17 to be the biggest stars. Bates has more of those players that have been around the block, and I think they keep themselves in the playoff race with a series win this weekend.

Prediction: Bates wins two of three

Bantams Trying to Bolt Back to the Playoffs: Trinity Baseball Season Preview

Jed Robinson '15 and the Bantams have high expectations for 2015. (Courtesy of BantamSports)
Jed Robinson ’16 and the Bantams have high expectations for 2015. (Courtesy of BantamSports)

2014 Record: 16-17 (4-8, Fifth in the NESCAC East)

Postseason Outcome: Missed NESCAC Playoffs

Returning Starters: 10 (9 Position Players, 1 Starting Pitcher)

Projected Starting Lineup (Stats are from 2014)

2B Matt Mortimer ’16 (.294/.360/.353, 0 HR, 9 RBI)
RF Scott Huley ’15 (.236/.331/.330, 0 HR, 12 RBI)
3B Daniel Pidgeon ’15 (.300/.374/.364, 0 HR, 15 RBI)
1B Bryan Wolfe ’15 (.317/.430/.446, 2 HR, 18 RBI)
C Scott Cullinane ’16 (.263/..396/.395, 0 HR, 4 RBI)
DH Carson Kenney ’15 (.259/.310/.296, 0 HR, 5 RBI)
CF Ryan Vultaggio ’18
SS Adam Moossmann ’15 (.180/.276/.180, 0 HR, 6 RBI)
LF Evan Abraham ’15 (.183/.306/.183, 0 HR, 8 RBI)

RHP Sean Meekins ’15 (1-4, 3.43 ERA,  8.92 K/9, 39.1 IP)
LHP Jed Robinson ’16 (5-2, 3.48 ERA, 7.19 K/9, 41.1 IP)
LHP Chris Speer ’17 (0-0, 4.50 ERA, 2.25 K/9, 4.0 IP)

Offensive Overview:

Literally every single position player who got at-bats last season is back this season, and the Bantams are hoping that those players can make a massive improvement on their performance from a season ago. Indeed, they have to because this offense sputtered and was one of the worst in the NESCAC last season. The only thing that this group did well was draw walks. Besides that they didn’t do much. They didn’t hit for a great average or for much power. They only stole twice in conference games so opposing pitchers always felt comfortable, something that is a huge advantage. The bottom of the lineup contributed nothing. Wolfe was one of the bright spots, but this unit needs to be much better all around. Manager Bryan Adamski will be flexible in getting a lot of different guys at-bats as he continues to search for his best starting group so don’t be surprised if the lineup ends up very different than the one listed above when conference play rolls around.

Defensive Overview:

The Bantams need to be more sure-handed this year. They finished with the second lowest fielding percentage in the NESCAC, ahead of only Hamilton. The correlation between errors committed and finish in the standings is actually surprisingly closely correlated. The left side of the infield, Moossmann and Pidgeon, combined for 13 errors on the season. Both of them had fielding percentages barely above .900. One area where Trinity did do decently was defending the running game. Opponents stole 10 bags against them in conference play which ties them with Amherst for the fourth-lowest amount in the NESCAC.

Pitching Overview:

Meekins and Robinson are pretty firmly entrenched as the top two starters. Meekins struggled a little in conference play in part because of control problems. Robinson was not originally a regular part of the weekend rotation, but he pitched his way into this spot. His seven inning, two run start against Wesleyan in an end of season non-conference game  was one of the bright spots for the Bantams last season. Behind those two, things are pretty wide open. Speer is the frontrunner right now based on the big strides he has taken in the offseason, but expect him to have a short leash given his limited experience. The positive side is that Adamski is a pitching coach first and he had great staffs at Amherst. He could have possibly brought in an impact freshman arm who will be able to make an instant impact for the Bantams.

Storylines to Watch

1. Was last year a fluke?

To call last year a disappointment for Trinity baseball would be somewhat of an understatement.  Go watch this video of players and Adamski before the 2014 season began talking about their hopes for last year. You hear talk of winning the NESCAC as if it’s almost a given. Obviously a lot of coaches and teams emphasize setting high goals, but I don’t think anyone at Trinity was expecting to finish the season below .500. Their 4-8 NESCAC record is the worst for the Bantams since at least 2000 (there aren’t available records for further back). For Adamski, now in his second season, he needs to make large tangible gains on the playing field in order to show that 2014 was a blip for the Bantams. Trinity is considered a baseball powerhouse, and they have dipped before only to come back just as strong. Adamski has to show that last season was a brief though severe dip.

2. Where does the beef come from?

And by beef we mean raw power. The Bantams finished dead last in slugging percentage last season. In their 12 NESCAC games, they had an abysmal .268 mark. They didn’t hit a single home run in conference, and Wolfe was the only player to hit one all season. The fact that Trinity is somewhat known for their power hitters makes the outage last season all the more confusing. Guys like Pidgeon and Cullinane have to provide some additional pop. Obviously the NESCAC isn’t the big leagues where guys are about to go yard on the regular, but two home runs for an entire team all season is pathetic. For comparison’s sake, Nate Pajka ’15 has four home runs THIS SEASON for Bates. Go look it up.

3. Can they win close games?

We are going to beat this to death over the next couple of weeks, but that second spot in the East really looks like it is there for the taking. Still, this is going to be an uphill battle for the Bantams. Last season, all four of their conference victories came by one run. Yes, they lost a few close games as well, but they were closer to going 2-10 than 6-6. They need to continue to find ways to win close games. Their lack of many power hitters means they are unlikely to blow many teams out, but if they get on-base then they might be able to manufacture runs and pull out some victories.

Biggest Series: April 3-4, home against Colby

Trinity has their two home conference series in back-to-back weekends. They play Colby in this one and then Tufts a week later. The Bantams need to jump all over the Mules and have some confidence before playing the Jumbos a week later. The talent is there for a quick rebound in Hartford, and a key for them is going to be believing that they are capable of it. Last season they didn’t win a single one of their conference series, so notching one early will go a long way.