Game of the Week: Midd @ Wesleyan

Middlebury @ Wesleyan Game of the Week Preview

Rejoice NESCAC fans, football is back!

Ladies and gentleman, football is officially here. Right out of the gate, the NESCAC Gods have rewarded our patience with a matchup containing two of the league’s heavyweights, as the Middlebury Panthers travel to Corwin Field to take on the Wesleyan Cardinals. Normally inaugural games aren’t necessarily make or break, but for these two, it might as well be the case. The winner grabs a marquee victory and something to build upon as the season gets rolling, while the loser will be playing catch-up right from the get-go, with games against Amherst and defending champions Trinity still to come.  Who’s ready for a shootout?

One Man on a Mission

Wesleyan will bring the air attack this weekend.

Wesleyan runs an RPO style attack on offense, and they do it to perfection; the Cardinals ranked 1st in the ‘CAC last season in time of possession and first downs, displaying their patience and taking what the defense gave them.  The combination of lengthy drives and an up-tempo pace (a fundamental component of the RPO offense) wears down opposing defenses throughout the game.

The Cardinals have serious aspirations to claim their first outright NESCAC Championship, and they have every right to be confident with QB Mark Piccirillo ’19 leading the way.  Although he falls on the smaller spectrum in terms of prototypical quarterback height (5’10’’), the man is a magician with the football.  Last year’s First Team All-NESCAC selection accounted for more than 3,100 total yards of offense, torching opposing secondaries for 20 TD while adding another 4 on the ground. His absurdly high completion percentage (70.4%) highlights his football IQ, and he knows when to tuck the ball and run, leading the Cardinals in rushing.  One smudge on an otherwise brilliant junior campaign was in the turnover department – Piccirillo’s 10 interceptions were tied for worst in the NESCAC and something he must improve on if the Cardinals truly want to have a special season. This is a puzzling stat considering how efficient and prolific the other offensive numbers are, so Cardinal fans will be hoping the senior cuts down on his mistakes.

Another cause for concern for the Wesleyan offense is the departure of last year’s NESCAC Player of The Year, WR Mike Breuler ’18.  Piccirillo and Brueler were like Will Grier and David Stills (for anyone who doesn’t know these two from West Virginia, I suggest you look them up and watch how lethal this tandem is): you knew the ball was going in Brueler’s direction nearly every time the offense lined up, yet there was nothing opposing defenses could do to stop it.  Finding a replacement for someone who set NESCAC single-season records in receiving yards (1,172) and touchdowns (10) is nearly impossible, but the Cardinals are hoping that some sort of chemistry has been built between the veteran QB and his returning weapons during practice.

New QB, Same Artillery

Frankie Cosolito is one of Midd’s many weapons.

If it wasn’t for a season-ending injury to stud QB Jared Lebowitz ’18, Middlebury just might have won the NESCAC last year. Unfortunately, the senior’s career was cut short just before their de-facto championship matchup vs. Trinity, and now the Panthers must move on without their prized Division 1 transfer manning the helm on offense.  The new man in charge is Jack Meservy ’19 who is hoping to show the rest of the league that the Panthers will be just fine at the quarterback position.  Thrust into the starting role against a formidable Bantam defense, struggles were expected; however, Meservy bounced back nicely with impressive performances against Hamilton and Tufts.

Meservy will have a multitude of weapons to choose from as Panthers return nearly every single starting offensive player from a year ago. Conrado Banky ’19 ( two-time 1st Team All-NESCAC selection) leads an impressive wide receiver bunch that is laden with depth. Tight end Frank Cosolito ’19 is the best in the ‘CAC and led the Panthers with six scores last season. What’s more, the Panthers feature an offensive line that rivals any such unit in the league, which is critical so Meservy can have time in the pocket to go through his progressions.  Similarly to Wesleyan, Middlebury doesn’t have too much success running the ball; since Piccirillo can keep opposing defenses honest with his legs, however, the Panthers must utilize their committee of running backs in order to stray away from being overly one-dimensional on offense. Look for Coach Ritter to give Drew Jacobs ’19 and Peter Scibilia ’21 a chance to take the load off of Meservy and use the O-line to create more manageable 3rd down conversions.

Let’s Talk Defense

While the focal point of the matchup centers around the offense units, both teams aren’t too shabby in the defensive department. With 6 starters returning on a defense that allowed 16.1 ppg (good for second in the ‘CAC), Wesleyan will be optimistic in regards to containing the Middlebury air assault. The Cardinals boast a fantastic defensive line headlined by DT Grant Williams ’19, and their linebacking core features Brandon Morris ’19, who led the NESCAC in tackles a season ago. The secondary is a bit suspect, with two brand new starting safeties in addition to replacing Second Team All-NESCAC DB Elias Camacho ’18.

The Panther D prided themselves on their ability to pressure the quarterback and create turnovers; they led the NESCAC in sacks (31) and forced 16 total turnovers on their way to a league-best three defensive touchdowns. Middlebury features a solid secondary and enough pass-rushing ability to test the Wesleyan offensive line. They will have to replace two All-NESCAC linebackers, so look for Kevin Maxwell ’19 to step up and take charge of the group.

Key Player for Wesleyan:

Evan Hull ’19

WR Evan Hull ‘19

The obvious choice for this would be Piccirillo, but the wide receiver position for the Cardinals is of the utmost importance.  Losing four of your top five WR’s is an absolute killer, and Hull is the only remaining one.  He finished second on the team with 340 receiving yards and needs to become a security blanket for Piccirillo.  Most of Hall’s fellow position mates lack meaningful game experience, so he needs to set the tone and have a big game in order to instill confidence in both his teammates and his QB.

Key Player for Middlebury:

Jack Merservy ’19

QB Jack Meservy ‘19

This time I’m sticking with the obvious choice. Meservy has waited a long time to finally take control of the offense and he’s ready to show the rest of the league what he’s capable of. He’s got a plethora of weapons surrounding him and a great offensive line ready to give him time in the pocket to throw. Banky, Cosolito and company will create separation on opposing defensive backs, but it remains to be seen if Meservy can consistently keep the chains moving in order to outgun the Cardinals. If he can do so, Middlebury will leave Corwin Field with a monumental victory.  If not, it will be a long day for the Panther offense.

Everything Else:

I’m expecting a tight contest, so special teams will definitely play a big part in determining the outcome of this game.  Middlebury has the edge in the KR/PR department, with the two-headed monster of Banky ’19 and fellow WR Jimmy Martinez ’19 eager to take one to the house.  The Panthers don’t kick too many field goals, but one area of concern is K Carter Massengill’s ’20 below-average PAT percentage (82.1%, second-worst in the NESCAC last season).  Wesleyan returns Second Team All-NESCAC punter Sam Han ’20, who hopefully won’t need to be used too much if the Cardinals offense is moving up and down the field.  Wesleyan is handing the kicking duties to Pat Wolfe ‘21, and he might be feeling the butterflies come kickoff.

Prediction:

Get your bathroom breaks in before the start of this one, because both these teams are going to light up the scoreboard. In what I think will be a fast-paced, aerial assault, every defensive stop matters. Piccirillo can only do so much, and I think there are too many question marks concerning both Wesleyan’s receiver bunch and their secondary. Meservy will make his presence known to the rest of the league, Banky will shine, and the Panthers will head back to Middlebury with a huge victory

 

Middlebury 34 – 28 Wesleyan 

 

 

 

(Almost)Taking the Head Off the Jumbo: Week 1 Power Rankings:

1: Trinity (1-0)

Trinity now runs its winning streak to 10 games going back to 2015 following a blow out win over Colby. They were expected crush them and played nearly flawlessly, but still could improve. QB Sonny Puzzo’s INT should’ve come as a shock to the Bantams, but other than that, they played great football. Max Chipouras decimated the Colby defense and this team looks primed to blow out Bates in week two. The secondary looked great following the graduation of many All-NESCAC players, and that was the biggest hole. There’s honestly not a whole lot else to say, the Bantams are rolling.

2: Middlebury (1-0)

Jared Lebowitz and the Panthers couldn’t have started off 2017 in better fashion as they knocked off a top tier team, learned about numerous first year weapons, and didn’t totally screw up on special teams. Without RBs Diego Meritus and Will McKissick, Peter Scibilla ’21 took the reins on the ground and was serviceable, but not great. Once the other running weapons return (Meritus should be back this week), the ground game will drastically improve, making Midd even more dangerous. Their receivers are the best in the league and that isn’t open for debate. Not player by player necessarily, but between Maxim Bochman ’20 who went off on Saturday in his first year shot, 2016 breakout Conrad Banky, athletic freak three sport college athlete Frankie Cosolito, and All-American track runner and special teams player of the week Jimmy Martinez, there are so many options for the already established Lebowitz. Opposing secondaries, watch out.

Middlebury’s Ian Blow downs a punt at Wesleyan’s one yard line last Saturday.

3: Amherst (1-0)

There are still some questions for the Mammoths despite their win over the weak looking Bates team last weak. When will Reece Foy come back and how good will he be when he does? If he isn’t healthy, is Ollie Eberth ’21 the real deal? Why am I so bummed that Mike Odenwaelder didn’t have a bigger role? Granted, not all of these questions are bad, and Amherst has an answer to all of them, resulting in their placement barely below Midd on these rankings. Foy was in uniform last weekend and should be back in week two, but even if he doesn’t start, Eberth looked good and had a real connection with Craig Carmelani in the air. Odenwaelder is still raw as a football player and played on special teams, although I still hope he breaks out as a tight end. Jack Hickey was great in his limited action (5 carries, 9.4 yds/carry) and should see more time against Hamilton. I would like to see a better rush defense from the Mammoths as they allowed two TDs to Bates, but Hamilton’s game isn’t running. They should outlast the Continentals and will only get better from here.

4: Wesleyan (0-1)

Some Jumbo fans might be mad that the Cardinals are in this spot, but they simply played a better team in Middlebury and had a solid game. Mark Piccirillo didn’t get off to a fantastic start with two INTs but still threw for four TDs and 432 yards. Dario Highsmith performed poorly in his limited sample size, but the large deficit in the first quarter leading to a passing offense was not a product of him. The Panther receivers simply dominated the Cardinal secondary and while no team is arguably as deep in their receiving core as Midd, Ben Thaw and Elias Camacho will need to pick up the slack against Tufts. We learned last year not to read too much into Wesleyan’s week on result after they lost to Tufts, so I’m going to stick with them as my favorite against the Jumbos, but they are in a must win scenario.

5: Tufts (1-0)

While they were manage to pull out the win in week one, it seemed pretty flukey. Backup QB Ryan Hagfeldt entered the game on the final drive in a tie game in the fourth quarter after an injury to starter Ryan McDonald and landed on his own fumble to score the game winning touchdown. McDonald had a solid game with 26 completions and two TDs and 92 yards rushing, but his status for week two against Wesleyan is up in the air. Their linebackers and DBs didn’t play well and will need to step it up against what is a better QB in Mark Piccirillo. Their ‘bad’ game was as much a product of their own poor play as it was Hamilton’s breakout game, and the Continentals deserve a lot of credit. Tufts will be fine and still found a way to win which is what good programs do. The Jumbos could still be a top tier team this year, but they still lack a Chance Brady. They simply aren’t the same team as last year simply as a product of not having an all world RB, and Dominic Borelli is not even close. Andrew Sanders will be the X-Factor in week two as he has the biggest play potential. Whether it is Hagfeldt or McDonald, the QB won’t be a big issue as the two were in competition to begin the year anyways.

6: Hamilton (0-1)

At the end of the day Hamilton is still winless, however, they made a big challenge to move towards the top tier of the conference in week one. An OT finish after a furious fourth quarter comeback, led by an incredible performance from QB Kenny Gray (370 yards passing, 4 TDs, 0 INT) would have resulted in glory if not for Tufts QB Ryan Hagfeldt recovering his own fumble in the end zone for a TD on fourth down. The Continentals were on the Jumbo’s seven yard line in OT before turning the ball over to end the game, but should still be epically proud of their performance. As a win/lose game goes, no team is happy with a loss, but Hamilton prove to be the real deal if they can manage a close game or win this weekend against Amherst.

7: Williams (1-0)

I’m sure some Ephs fans are upset that they are so far down the rankings after an undefeated start, they did play a weak opponent. Nobody is awestruck that Williams pulled out a win, especially Pete, who called it. There were a host of positives for this team though as they found their first win in over a year, found a QB in Bobby Maimaron ’21, a top receiver in Frank Stola ’21, and saw a breakout performance from RB Connor Harris who had the best game of his college career. Maimaron even kicked off once and Stola returned the punts, showing that this two headed monster, if they are the real deal, should roll over the Colby Mules on the road this weekend. A 2-0 start for the Williams Ephs? When was the last time we predicted that?

8: Bates (0-1)

I’ve always liked the way Coach Harriman runs and recruits the Bates offense as they are the only team so run oriented and with so many slot players. They have a lot of play action passes to open things up, but showed that too few play making receivers leads to a lack of big play potential. QB Sandy Plashkes is in his second year as the starter and was able to find just nine yards for his biggest completion and just 44 in the air total. While he was able to make a dent in opposing defenses by breaking off some big runs in 2016, he rushed for a total of zero yards on twelve tries last Saturday. Ouch. Sure, not all of them were designed runs, but he’s got to make a big play in one area of the offense. Matt Golden’s one completion of 33 yards nearly matched Plashkes’ total, and that should scare the junior signal caller as he needs to step it up against Trinity or he could lose his job. RB Tyler Baum was one of the lone positives as he was able to break off a 42 yard rush at the end of the first half, and could see more carries this week. The Bobcats did play a tough opponent in Amherst, but without their starting QB, and got roughed up by a first year who found the end zone four times as new DB starters Coy Candelario and Jack Maritz were not able to fill the big holes left by Sam Francis and Mark Upton from 2016’s secondary

.9: Bowdoin (0-1)

Losing to one of the teams that didn’t win in 2016 isn’t the start the Polar Bears were looking for. While the Ephs did look much improved, Bowdoin still allowed 439 yards on defense and flat out were beaten. Noah Nelson tried to salvage his lackluster passing day with his two rushing scores, but was still only able to tally 111 yards in the air, with Nick Vallas’ 46 receiving yards the tops on the team. They weren’t able to score fast enough with their style of play and allowed two Williams’ first year players to smoke them on defense. Ejaaz Jiu, Nick Vallas, and Bo Millet were my favorite offensive playmakers for this team heading into the season and as a result of Nelson’s paltry passing, none were able to make a big impact. Look for Vermont high school legend Griff Stalcup ’21 to see some more snaps this weekend, especially if they get down early, and hopefully he will find the diamonds in the rough in the receiving core. Chris Markisz looks to have successfully lost the starting RB or 1b rushing role as he managed just 1.8 yds/carry, putting the ball in Nate Richam’s hands more this week. The offense might look different this weekend against and they need to find small victories in what is likely to be a blow out against Middlebury.

Williams’ Frank Stola makes a Bowdoin defender miss and heads towards yards after a catch.

10: Colby (0-1)

While the Mules did face the league’s toughest opponent in week one, since they didn’t score a point I didn’t have much choice in this rank. Obviously they have some work to do as their defense was torched on the ground by Max Chipouras. This is as much a credit to Chipouras as it is a lack of credit to Colby’s run D. The top two Bantam backs averaged almost nine yards per carry on Saturday, and the Mules had just four tackles for losses. They had several bright spots though as they managed to recover two fumbles and Patrick Yale ’20 was able to pick off Puzzo. Their offense was no better though as they were just 1/15 on third down conversions, and threw for 119 yards in the losing effort. Their run game was OK as Jake Schwern’s 4.5 yards per carry weren’t a huge issue, but 73 yards passing from the starting QB is. They need to figure out how to find some completions to move the chains on third down and then they will have a better chance against the weaker teams.