NCAA First Round Preview: Amherst College vs. The Sage Colleges

Game Information: Amherst (20-7) vs. Sage (23-4)

Friday, March 6, 5:30 PM

Manning and Napier Varsity Gym at St. John Fisher College, Rochester, NY

Live Stats  Video

If you were wondering, “What is Sage?”, you’re not alone. As a matter of fact, the Sage Colleges basketball program is in just its sixth season and has never made the NCAA Tournament before. The conference from which Sage hails, the Skyline Conference, is in its 25th season of operation. Compare those credentials to Amherst, which has been to back-to-back Final Fours, won two national championships, travelled to 17 NCAA Tournaments and compiled a .679 (36-16) winning percentage in the tournament, and you might think that Sage doesn’t have any place on the court in this game. But don’t expect Sage to be timid in this one. Last year’s Skyline Conference champion, SUNY-Purchase, won its NCAA opening round game. And like many teams in the NCAA field, Sage needed to win its conference tournament to get into the big dance, so the Sage Gators are riding high.

The Sage players are following Coach Barnes’ example of shooting for greatness. As Skyline Conference Player of the Year Kai Deans ’15 said, “Coach told us from the get-go, nothing less than a championship is what we’re trying to achieve.”

Kai Deans '15 will present a unique challenge for Amherst's David George '17. But the opposite applies as well. (Courtesy of The Sage Colleges)
Kai Deans ’15 will present a unique challenge for Amherst’s David George ’17. But the opposite applies as well. (Courtesy of The Sage Colleges)

In a way, both head coaches are synonymous with their programs. David Hixon, an Amherst alum, has an unmatched pedigree, and in his previous 37 years at the helm twice won the National Association of Basketball Coaches National Coach of the Year Award. On the flip side, Brian Barnes has been the head coach of the Gators since the program’s inception in 2009-10, when the team went an abysmal 5-18. Now both coaches are on even footing as they get set to clash in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

Three Storylines to Watch

1. Which version of the D-I transfers shows up for Amherst?

Okay, a bit of a double dip here (see our Amherst X-Factors below), but there’s really no telling what kind of performance the Jeffs are going to get from Jayde Dawson ’18 and Eric Conklin ’17. Without those two, the only real scoring threats are All-NESCAC First Teamer Connor Green ’16 and NESCAC ROY Johnny McCarthy ’18, followed by the inconsistency of David George ’17 and sharpshooter Jeff Racy ’17. With Dawson and Conklin in the mix, Dave Hixon can put five players on the floor who can all do damage offensively. And on defense, Dawson creates more havoc than Berman, while another big body down low could be critical in slowing down Deans and forward Melvin Ford ’15.

2. How legit is Sage’s defense?

The Sage Colleges led all of D-III in field goal percentage defense, but in reality they played one of the weakest schedules in the country (.455 SOS as of February 25), and the Skyline Conference didn’t feature a lot of great three-point shooting teams. Expect the Gators’ post presence to be strong. Center Jacob Sopchak ’15 plays just 14.7 minutes per game yet blocks 2.1 shots per contest. But if Amherst can make some three point shots early they could open up a gap for good. Six-four swingman Travis Gill ’16 might be tasked with shutting down Green. Gill was honored as the Skyline Conference’s Defensive Player of the Year. Green’s main advantage over the Brooklyn native, as usual, will be his size. Gill checks in at 180 lbs. while Green is comfortably over two bills.

3. The head coaching matchup

We mentioned it briefly in the intro, but David Hixon and Brian Barnes are basically on opposite ends of the head coaching spectrum. Hixon has the accolades, Barnes has the hunger. And yet, some criticized Hixon in Amherst’s NESCAC Championship game loss to Wesleyan, especially the decision to keep Green on the bench for the majority of the second half, presumably because the junior was hurting the flow of the Jeffs’ offense with bad shots. It will be interesting to see whether Barnes can throw something at Amherst that will catch Hixon off guard. When you’ve coached over 1,000 games at this level, not much surprises you.

HixonCutsNets
David Hixon’s Stoic expression is no coincidence. The Amherst coach has done this plenty of times before. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

 

Amherst X-Factors: PF Eric Conklin ’17 and PG Jayde Dawson ’18

Conklin and Dawson had been, quite frankly, disappointments until the NESCAC Tournament rolled around. Then Conklin went 9-9 from the field in the NESCAC Championship (only his third game in double figures all season) and Dawson scored 35 points on 12-26 (46.2 percent) shooting in the final two games of the Tournament, and played 20 and 30 minutes after not seeing more than 16 minutes of action since January 17 against Bates. Sage has two very prolific big men (more on that later), but almost no front court depth, so if Conklin can play like he did against Wesleyan it will be a huge boost for the Jeffs. Not to knock Reid Berman ’17, who is a great distributor and has been playing solid basketball for Coach David Hixon, Dawson is one of the more talented point guards in the NESCAC. He has great athleticism and the ability (often unrealized this season) to score the ball in multiple ways, as well as a good sense of when to interrupt the passing lane on defense.

Sage X-Factor: Physicality

The Sage front court is not deep, but it’s strong. The Gators out-rebounded their opponents by more than 10 boards a game and are adept at getting opposing big men into foul trouble. George can’t get frustrated and start hacking away. If he gets into foul trouble early and Conklin doesn’t play like the Championship game version of himself then the Gators will have Amherst right where they want them.

What to Expect

Stopping Skyline Conference Player of the Year Deans (17.3 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 1.3 BPG) might be George’s toughest assignment of the season. George can match the Florida import’s height, but he gives up probably 40 pounds to Deans. The front court of Deans and Ford is probably on par or better than a healthy Sabety-Palleschi combination or the Delpeche duo. And both are very much interior players. Defensively the pair was a big reason why Sage led the country in field goal percentage defense. As we learned from watching Bowdoin this year, when you can’t get into the paint, it’s hard to score.

David George '17 is known for his defense (4.9 DRPG, 2.0 BPG), and he will need to be at his best against Sage (Courtesy of Rob Mattson/The Amherst Student)
David George ’17 is known for his defense (4.9 DRPG, 2.0 BPG), and he will need to be at his best against Sage (Courtesy of Rob Mattson/The Amherst Student)

I would never predict a blowout in a Division-III NCAA Tournament game, but I think Amherst has to be the heavy favorite in this one. Amherst’s strength on offense, three-point shooting, is Sage’s defensive weakness (or lesser of its defensive strengths). The Jeffs don’t need to go up against Deans, Ford and Sopchak. Instead they can work it around the outside and get open looks. Of course, relying on the three ball makes one susceptible to cold streaks, and Deans and Ford will certainly be going at George and whomever else Coach Hixon decides to throw down there with him, so I could foresee some foul trouble for the Jeffs’ big men that could accentuate the Gators’ front court advantage. The Gators attempted 28.7 foul shots per game, 7.3 of those coming from Deans. Trinity led the NESCAC with 16.7 foul shots attempted per game. Amherst could be surprised a little bit by the Gators’ physicality, and if they don’t rebound quickly from the first blow then Sage might pull away with the upset. The Gators will want to push the pace as well, but Amherst should be used to that, as a lot of teams in the NESCAC play the same style, and the Jeffs themselves are a fast-paced team. Andre Robinson ’16, among others, will be the one forcing the ball up the court for the Gators. Robinson not only makes plays for the big men, but can score himself. The junior guard was named the Skyline Championship Most Outstanding Player with 17 points, 12 boards, five assists and two steals in the championship game.

Prediction

For all of the reasons above, this game makes me a bit nervous. Nonetheless, Coach Hixon and his players have been through this before, now in their fourth straight NCAA Tournament, so they ought to be prepared for anything. That’s why I think the skill and depth of Amherst outweighs the tough interior play of Sage, and the Jeffs roll on to Saturday.

Amherst 80 – Sage 66