Is an Upset on the Horizon? The Weekend Preview 10/23

Conventional thinking for this season has been that three teams have a legitimate chance at winning the NESCAC title-Amherst, Wesleyan, and Trinity-and that the title would come down to the results of the games between those teams. This week will be the strongest test of that thinking as all three top teams face varying challenges this weekend. Middlebury traveling to Trinity is the highlight, but Tufts visiting Amherst and Bowdoin at Wesleyan could also offer intrigue. The big advantage for the top three teams is that they all play at home, though on the season home teams are only 12-13.

If one of the top three teams loses, then the final two weeks could become much more complicated. It would not necessarily drop Amherst or Trinity from the conversation because both teams are still undefeated, but Wesleyan knows they must win out to have a chance. Elsewhere the CBB gets underway with Colby and Bates, and Hamilton looks to notch their first win at home against Williams.

Three to Watch

Quarterback Jesse Warren ’15 (Wesleyan): Perhaps lost somewhat in Wesleyan’s loss last Saturday and their inability to run the ball, has been how good Warren has played this season. The knock on him last year was that he didn’t need to throw the ball often and his stats were a product of teams loading the box to stop the run. This year he has proven that wrong in all respects. He is averaging over 45 more yards per game while also being more efficient as his yards per attempt is up 0.9 yards and his completion percentage has edged up from 64.7 percent to 66.9 percent. To top it off he still has only thrown one interception this year while also tossing nine touchdowns. Last week Trinity was forced to turn to Henry Foye ’15 and air the ball out against Bowdoin, and a similar situation could see itself play out again this week. If Warren continues his stellar play, the Cardinals are in good hands.

Linebacker Tom Szymanski ’15 (Trinity): The Bantams defense is a very deep unit that has talent all across the board, but Szymanski has been the leading man so far. His 31 tackles are the most on the team. He has also been a force in the pass rush with two sacks on the season. The senior had his biggest game a few weeks ago against Hamilton totaling 12 tackles. The Bantams are banged up on defense (more on that later), and Szymanski will have to be a steadying force to make Middlebury one-dimensional through the air. Even though the Panthers have not run the ball particularly well (second to last in the NESCAC per carry), they will try to establish something on the ground.

Running Back Nick Kelly ’17 (Amherst): After some early season missteps, the Amherst offense seems to be on track with Kelly as the main horse for the Jeffs. Kenny Adinkra ’16 was the starter entering the season, but injuries have forced him to miss multiple games. Kelly has stepped in and been a force. His first highlight came when he iced Bates with a 42-yard touchdown. After only gaining 28 yards in week two, Kelly has busted out for three straight 100+ yard performances. Kelly is a powerful back who also has breakaway speed once he turns the corner and gets a full head of steam. Amherst will need him to approach the 100 yard mark again this week, but it might not be as easy as you might expect against Tufts. Though they are not usually associated with a strong run defense, the Jumbos stonewalled Williams for 46 yards on 29 carries last Saturday.

Trinity Looks to Make Sure There is NPITC
Trinity Looks to Make Sure There is NPITC (No Poop in the Coop)

The Picks

Game of the Week: Middlebury (3-2) at Trinity (5-0)

Trinity survived on the road last Saturday, and they are more than happy to be back at home protecting their 53-game home winning streak. Meanwhile Middlebury comes in on a two-game winning streak and hoping for a signature win to their season.  Sources told us this morning that Chudi Iregbulem ’15 will give it a go tomorrow after not playing last week.

Middlebury has lost both of its games by one touchdown, and their main issue has been offense in those games. Matt Milano ’16 and company have put up 28.3 points per game in their victories but only 7.0 in their two losses. Granted, they played Amherst in a driving rain storm that was a huge boon for the Jeffs in terms of stopping the Panther passing game. The Bantams stack right up there with Wesleyan and Amherst on defense allowing only 7.6 points per game.

The Trinity defense has been even better than their stats as well. Teams have only scored two touchdowns on drives of more than 40 yards through their first five games. The rest of the touchdowns given up by the Bantams were because of short fields after a turnover. They are strongest against the run allowing only 2.5 yards per carry, and the Panthers should expect few lanes open.

Injuries on the defensive side of the ball are a major issue. Safety Mike Mancini ’15, linebacker Mike Weatherby ’14, and cornerback Brian Dones ’15 are all questionable for the game because of injury. Head Coach Jeff Devanney has said he thinks it is possible all of them play, but as Iregbulem’s injury shows, the Bantams do not reveal a lot of information about injuries. Not revealing injuries is of course part of the game and Trinity is under no obligation to tell anybody who will be playing. However, at this point Trinity appears to be healthy, and all those players will try to play tomorrow.

Dones in particular is important because when healthy he can shut down one side of the field. Grant Luna ’17 did not play last week due to a concussion so his status is up in the air, but Matt Minno ’16 and Brendan Rankowitz ’15 are more than capable of making plays for Milano and Luna’s replacement, Ryan Rizzo ’17, is just as athletic as (and faster than) every receiver on the Panthers’ roster. The major difference between this year’s Middlebury offense and those of past years’ is the lack of a pass catching tight end. William Sadik-Khan ’14 and Billy Chapman ’13 were both big targets in the middle of the field that were match-up nightmares for NESCAC teams. No tight end has more than five catches on the year right now for Middlebury.

On the other side of the ball Middlebury will look to make Trinity rely on the passing game. Bowdoin did a good job of this last week, but Henry Foye ’15 proved he could make throws when it mattered. In the second half Foye had a handful of throws down the field that helped make his receivers open. This entire video of Trinity coach Jeff Devanney going over game film is worth watching, and he does a good job of breaking down some of Foye’s throws starting at 9:15.

The Middlebury secondary should be more up to the task of shutting down Ian Dugger ’16 and Chris Ragone ’15. Nate Leedy ’17 is the top corner for the Panthers, and safeties Matt Benedict ’15 and Dan Pierce ’16 make a lot of big plays as well. On the season the Panthers have allowed the second least amount of passing yards though per attempt teams fare reasonably well against them.

If Iregbulem is still slowed then the Panthers have a good shot at pulling the upset. It will be imperative for Milano not to make any costly mistakes. Since throwing for two interceptions against Wesleyan, he has passed for eight touchdowns and no interceptions. Still, though health is an issue for Trinity, the Bantams will have enough to keep the streak alive for at least one more week.

Prediction: Trinity 27 over Middlebury 21

Tufts (3-2) at Amherst (5-0): No team has a bigger disparity between their home and away performance than the Jumbos, and unfortunately for them Amherst hosts this week, but that doesn’t mean Tufts has no chance. Jack Doll ’15 is right up there with Warren for top QB in the NESCAC so far, but throwing on the Jeffs is always difficult. As mentioned before, Tufts loves to get the ball into the flats quickly, something that Amherst is adept at covering. Gene Garay ’15 emerged as Max Lippe’s ’15 security blanket underneath last week. Tufts needs its defensive stars Mike Stearns ’17 and Matt McCormack ’16 to be presences all day long in order to slow down Amherst. The Tufts have a good chance of getting to .500 on the year, but it won’t happen this week.

Prediction: Amherst 31 over Tufts 21

Bowdoin (2-3) at Wesleyan (4-1): (Editor’s Note: Prediction and game blurb by Joe MacDonald) How the Cardinals respond mentally to their let down last week will go a long way in this game. Given all the seniors on the roster, the likelihood is they come out looking for revenge. Besides their Week 1 debacle, the Polar Bears tend to keep games close and have looked better every week. The Wesleyan defense will work hard to force turnovers to help put the offense into good situations. Jay Fabien ’15 has become the number one target for Warren through the air, and Lou Stevens ’17 enjoyed his biggest game of the year on the ground last week. Meanwhile Dan Barone ’16 has cemented himself as Bowdoin’s number one option and is enjoying a top five receiver caliber season. The Polar Bears don’t have enough talent to hang for 60 minutes, and Wesleyan will pull away.

Prediction: Wesleyan 31 over Bowdoin 17

Our favorite NESCAC football photo of all time (courtesy of Bates Athletics)
Our favorite NESCAC football photo of all time (courtesy of Bates Athletics)

Colby (1-4) at Bates (1-4): The Mules busted out last week, and if they play anything like they did last week, then Bates could be in trouble. Some regression should be expected however, and in the opener of the CBB this should be a close one. Strong play by the Bates defense has only led to one victory so far because of offensive struggles exacerbated by injuries especially to Matt Cannone ’15. It is still uncertain whether Cannone will play Saturday, and if he does how effective he can be because of his ankle injury. Both teams have endured grueling schedules to start the year, and are more than ready for this game to get underway. Whether Bates can find consistent gains on the ground will be the difference. The Bobcats want to hold the ball for the majority of the game and keep Luke Duncklee ’15 and Nick Joseph ’15 from getting loose deep. Consider this one basically a coin flip between these two teams, but we will give Colby the edge based on last week’s results.

Prediction: Colby 21 over Bates 20

Williams (1-4) at Hamilton (0-5): The wheels fell of the bus somewhere along the way from Clinton to Waterville last week for the Continentals, and the same can be said for Williams too. The Hamilton defense has been a hard luck group this year as they place last in the NESCAC in points allowed per game (32.6) but are fifth in yards allowed per game (334.0). Williams will look to get Alex Scyocurka ’14 the ball at least 25 times on the ground in an attempt to wear down the Continentals. Chase Rosenberg ’17 has to do a better job making the easy throw when open. He has not had a single game with a completion percentage above 60 percent. As long as the Ephs show up motivated and ready to play, they should keep Hamilton in the loss column.

Prediction: Williams 24 over Hamilton 14

Last Week: 4-1

Season Record: 21-4

Middlebury Team Preview – Panthers Look to Find Their Matt Saracen

2013 Record: 7-1

Returning Starters: 15 (5 offense, 8 defense, 2 specialists)

Offensive Overview:

In case you hadn’t heard, there was some pretty good quarterback play in Middlebury over the last couple years. Mac Foote’s name is all over the NESCAC record book, right alongside his predecessor Donnie McKillop. The question now is whether there is a young Panther ready to step up and be the next great NESCAC quarterback. Middlebury’s one-back, spread offense depends heavily on good quarterback play, and three signal-callers are currently in the hunt for the starting job. Each has played well and shown improvement this preseason, and the competition is still up in the air. Matt Milano ’16 served as the primary back up in 2012 and 2013, but had just seven passing attempts in 2013. Eric Bertino ’15 fell behind Milano on the depth chart last season, but one more year of familiarity with the playbook will help him in this battle. Youngster Jake Stalcup ’17, who doubles as a reliever on the baseball team, has the best size of the group at 6’5″, and is absolutely a factor as well. The coaching staff probably won’t make a decision on its starter until the week before the team’s season opener.

There are further question marks on offense. All-NESCAC tight end Billy Sadik-Khan is gone to graduation, and explosive playmaker Joey Zelkowitz ’17 has followed the path of multiple two-sport stars before him at Middlebury and hung up the football cleats in order to focus on lacrosse. The offensive line has two returning starters in Blake Shapskinsky ’15 and Dan Finta ’15, and BC transfer Win Homer should provide stability at left tackle, but the other two spots are up for grabs. Whoever wins the QB battle will have talented and experienced receivers at his disposal with All-NESCAC First-Teamer Matt Minno ’16, Second-Teamer Brendan Rankowitz ’15 and Grant Luna ’17 all back. Ryan Hislop ’15 is the favorite to see the majority of the carries early on, but he has yet to show consistency in his career.

Defensive Overview:

The opening day defense will have more experience than its counterparts. Tim Patricia ’16 is among the best tacklers in the NESCAC, and indeed leads the league over the past two years in total tackles. There isn’t tremendous size on the defensive line, and coach Bob Ritter tends to rotate bodies through those positions in order to keep legs fresh. At the back, Matt Benedict ’15 is a strong all-around safety with a lot of experience, and Nate Leedy ’17 burst on the scene last year at cornerback and instantly became one of the NESCAC’s best, tallying one pick and seven pass break ups. Patricia and Benedict each made the All-NESCAC Second Team in 2013. The defense was above average last year, ranking fourth in points per game allowed despite seeing more snaps than any other team in the league, but will need to be even better while the offense goes through a transition.

Courtesy of Middlebury Campus
Courtesy of Middlebury Campus

Three Big Questions:

1. How great was Mac Foote’s impact?

The Middlebury offense always provides the opportunity for a few great individual seasons. But you still need talented players in order to be successful. The best player on the field for Middlebury over the past three seasons has been Foote, and it’s impossible to know right now if Minno and the rest of the receiving corp can repeat last year’s production with a new wing under center. Will Middlebury be able to hold onto the ball for long drives? Or will the defense be playing with a lot of short fields behind them? Can the offense repeat the level of red zone efficiency that it displayed in 2013? The ramifications of Foote’s departure are multiple, and his replacement will need to play at a similar level in order to come close to again earning a share of the NESCAC crown.

2. Can the defense create big plays?

Middlebury employed a bend-don’t-break strategy in 2013, allowing the fifth-most yards per game but only 16.2 points per game. It worked for the Panthers last year, but it is a dangerous way to play defense. Furthermore, the Panthers would like to improve on the eight interceptions and five fumble recoveries they garnered last season.

3. Is Middlebury here to stay?

The Panthers have three championships since 2000, but two of those (2000 and 2013) were one-third shares, with the only outright title coming in 2007. After a 4-4 2011, Middlebury has gone 7-1 in back-to-back seasons. Can the Panthers maintain their current level of success? It will come down to whether Coach Ritter and the rest of his staff have brought in enough talent to reload given the departure of so many impact players on the offensive side of the ball.

Team MVP: Middlebury will rely more heavily on its defense than in past years, and Nate Leedy has the ability to shut down a team’s best receiver. Cornerbacks don’t often get this kind of recognition, with the majority of the glory on defense going to the linebacking corps, but Leedy might be the most talented Panther on the defensive side of the ball.

Biggest Game: Oct. 25 at Trinity

Middlebury opens the season against tri-champion Wesleyan and meets Amherst, the third member of the championship trio, in Week 3, but both of those games come at home. While the first three weeks will tell us a lot about this year’s Panthers team, the most interesting game for Middlebury will be its Week 6 trip to Hartford. Trinity’s winning streak is well-documented, and assuming that Middlebury doesn’t sweep Wesleyan and Amherst (and the rest of its early season games), the Panthers will need a win at Trinity to stay in the championship hunt.

Best Tweet of the Offseason: From Middlebury freshman Logan Shrout, who has already figured out the best part of college sports.

The 2014 Panthers still have plenty of talent on the roster, and will undoubtedly have some newcomers make an impact. Is it enough to compete for a championship once again? Only time will tell.

10 Biggest Games of 2014

Make no mistake, even though coaches say every game is important, certain ones mean just a little bit more. If the NESCAC had a TV deal, these would be the games that would be on national television.

10. September 20: Hamilton at Tufts

When these two teams meet in Week 1, you can be sure that they will both be hungry for a victory. Tufts of course has the longer losing streak, but Hamilton has endured a tough couple of years as well with all the turnover in the coaching staff. Both teams bring back a wealth of starters (14 for Hamilton and an astounding 21 for Tufts). The edge goes to Tufts because of the long trip Hamilton has to take and that Hamilton is installing a new offensive system.

9. September 27: Trinity at Williams

This is a benchmark game for these two teams. Trinity will have to prove they can replace all the talent they lost on offense while Williams tries to convert their close loses into real wins. Last year Trinity won on a touchdown pass to AJ Jones ’14 with 18 seconds left. How settled each quarterback situation is could be the difference. If Trinity still hasn’t settled on someone to replace Sonny Puzzo then Williams could use this game to jumpstart their season.

8. September 20: Bates at Amherst

Another season opener that offers intrigue all over the place. Expect this one to be very low scoring because of the loss of Ryan Curit ’14 and Shawn Doherty ’14 for Bates. The Bobcats have reason for optimism because of their wealth of seniors and the questions around the Amherst offense. The Jeffs will have the advantage of having multiple weeks to prepare for Bates triple option so Bates coach Mark Harriman might have to throw more often in order to keep Bates unpredictable.

7. September 20: Wesleyan at Middlebury

On paper this is the best week 1 matchup given that both teams went 7-1 last year. While we were robbed of seeing Mac Foote face off against the Wesleyan defense, this game has promise as well. We still don’t know who the starting QB will be week 1 for Middlebury, but we expect them to still throw the ball a lot. The other side of the ball is where the game will be decided. The Middlebury defense has been very young the last couple of years, but players like Tim Patricia ’16, Matt Benedict ’15, and Nate Leedy ’17 are out to prove the defense is now the strength of this team.

6. November 1: Wesleyan at Williams

We already wrote about how last year’s game could effect the showdown in November. Last year Wesleyan might have taken the Ephs somewhat lightly, but this year the game is circled on calendars everywhere. Depth is where Wesleyan really differentiates themselves from other NESCAC teams, and at this point in the season that could be the difference. If James Howe ’16 or Alex Syocurka ’14 gets hurt, Williams doesn’t have the players to replace him, but Wesleyan is much more of a next guy up situation if there are injuries.

5. October 25: Middlebury at Trinity

Trinity gets the chance to avenge their first loss of last season at home. While we do think Middlebury is destined for a slight downturn this season, their talent and scheme makes them a dangerous opponent for anyone. Middlebury will make defenses sweat again even if they are as proficient in the passing game. Trinity only gained 3.3 yards per rush in last years game, and a repeat performance of that type will keep the game close.

4.  October 18: Amherst at Wesleyan

Both teams should be 4-0 if they beat Middlebury in their respective early season matchups. Suddenly Wesleyan turns from the upstart into defending Little 3 champion. The top four games on this list are all very close, and an argument could be made for any of them deciding the NESCAC race. Amherst will have to force turnovers in this game to have a chance. They would like a low scoring game where kicker Phillip Nwosu ’15 can have a big impact. The matchup between the Wesleyan running game and Amherst front seven will be a treat as well.

3. November 1: Amherst at Trinity

Trinity felt like they gave this game away in 2013, and Amherst will have a tough time competing on Trinity’s turf. At this point of the season, Trinity should have figured things out and resemble the Trinity teams we are accustomed to. Amherst will have to possess the ball for a good majority of the game in order to slow the game down. If Trinity is going to lose any home game, this is probably the one, but the odds are that the vaunted home winning streak will continue.

2. November 8: Williams at Amherst

The Biggest Little Game is still the most important game on these rivals’ calendar, no matter what their records are. The big change this year is that the game will start at 4 PM and finish under the lights. The normally large crowd should be even louder because of that. And of course in a rivalry game like this one, you can throw most common sense out the window. Current Williams seniors have never won against Amherst so there are sure to be some emotional pregame speeches before the game.

1. November 8: Trinity at Wesleyan

Yes, this game is now the highlight of the NESCAC calendar, and it could become the premier event year in and year out. Williams vs Amherst will always beat this game in terms of sheer pageantry, but these two teams have the most talent. If Williams-Amherst is Ohio State-Michigan, then Trinity-Wesleyan is Florida-Florida State. It’s hard to say exactly how this game will look since it is two months way, but it will be close. The fact everything builds to the final week of the NESCAC schedule is great. It’s like a de facto bowl season and rivalry week rolled into one crazy Saturday.