Tag: Patrick Williams

Jumbos vs. Jeffs: Week 6 Game of the Week

Amherst has quite the streak going ... will it continue when they travel to Medford this weekend? (Photo by Joe MacDonald)
Amherst has quite the streak going … will it continue when they travel to Medford this weekend? (Photo by Joe MacDonald)

Game Info: Amherst (5-0) vs. Tufts (4-1): 1:00 PM, Medford MA

There are two big games this week, and we will have plenty of talk about the big Trinity at Middlebury game. For now, let’s focus on Tufts vs. Amherst for two reasons. One, Amherst is the reigning champion and owner of a 16-game winning streak; until they lose, any game involving them where there is at least any chance of them losing is the biggest game of the week. Two, Tufts might be making a mini-leap in season.

Let’s talk about the second point a little more. I’ll admit that I have been very wrong about my predictions for Tufts the past two weeks. I thought they would get blown out by Trinity and lose to Williams in a close game. Instead they lost in overtime to Trinity and blew out Williams 30-15. In making my predictions I fixated on Tufts’ results from the first two weeks when they sneaked by Hamilton and Bates. That was a mistake. Tufts still can’t be considered equal to the top four in the NESCAC until they beat one of those four (Tufts and Wesleyan miss each other on the schedule, unfortunately). However, they are closer to the elite than the bottom half of the conference and a better team than they were a few weeks ago.

Tufts X-Factor: Linebacker Matt McCormack ’16

Yes, Amherst is throwing the ball more than they have in the past, but they still run the ball on 59.3 percent of plays, compared to 61.6 percent of the time last year. McCormack returned to the lineup last week after a three week absence because of injury, and the leading tackler for Tufts from 2014 had just one solo tackles (five assisted).  His 88 tackles last season were best in the NESCAC, and he has to be more at full speed to pair with outside linebacker Patrick Williams ’16 to keep Amherst from gashing the Jumbos. The Tufts run defense has been hit or miss; they held both Hamilton and Williams to less than 50 yards but allowed an average of 197.5 yards against Bates and Trinity. Amherst still has the best run offense in the league, even after a subpar week running the ball against Wesleyan.

Amherst X-Factor: Wide Receiver Jackson McGonagle ’16

I’m not going to overthink this one. Tufts struggles against the pass, and Darrias Sime ’16 had a career day with 10 catches for 131 yards and a touchdown last week. McGonagle is another big, physical wide receiver who can take the top off a defense and is playing better every week. He won two jump balls last week for touchdowns against Wesleyan because the Amherst offense needed a spark. He can do more than just haul in jump balls, but that is where he is most deadly. He has caught all four of his touchdowns in the last three weeks, and most of those came on contested throws. The Jumbos are allowing a jaw-dropping 304.6 yards per game through the air. That is not going to cut it against McGonagle and fellow receiver Devin Boehm ’17.

Everything Else

Long known for their spread offense that tried to make up for their lack of size on the offensive line by getting the ball out in space quickly, Tufts has transformed into a run-first offense because of their experienced offensive line (two seniors and three juniors). The scheme hasn’t changed; they still spread you out and work out of the shot gun, but the play-calling is focused now on getting the ball in the hands of Chance Brady ’17 or backup Dominic Borelli ’19. Their commitment to the run is real: they have the third most rushes in the league, trailing just very run-heavy Bates and Wesleyan.

The problem is that running against Amherst is usually a losing proposition. On the surface, Amherst has not been as good against the run, allowing 114.8 yards per game on the ground, the fourth best mark. However, when you change those stats to yards allowed per carry (this was done by hand as it’s not available on the NESCAC website), that mark changes to 2.46 yards per carry. (That still isn’t the best in the NESCAC as Trinity allows 2.37 yards per carry.) Middle linebacker Thomas Kleyn ’16 had a casual 13 tackles in the FIRST half of last week, finishing with 18 for the game. The linebacking group altogether has not dropped off at all from last season, more than answering one of the big worries heading into the season. Yes, Tufts might have some success completing short passes, but good luck getting many yards after the catch because the linebackers and secondary prides itself on their tackling ability.

The past two weeks have seen Amherst dominated in the box score but still win comfortably. Now, obviously you play the scoreboard, not the box score, and so simply saying that Amherst is getting lucky is wrong. I don’t think there is anything wrong with this Amherst team, and they are still the best team in the NESCAC until somebody beats them. Nick Kelly ’17 was back at least somewhat healthy last week carrying the ball seven times for 62 yards. He is unlikely to carry that heavy a load, even if he does prove to be fully healthy just because of all the other talented running backs like Kenny Adinkra ’16 and Jack Hickey ’19.

Tufts is coming into this game confident after last week, and Amherst had to endure a physical battle last week, so one could make the argument that this is a body blow game for Amherst, especially since it comes sandwiched between Wesleyan and Trinity. However, it’s not like a 4-1 team is going to sneak up on Amherst. They will come ready to play. Coach EJ Mills will make the right adjustments as the game goes along, and Amherst will pull away in Medford.

Prediction: Amherst 28- Tufts 13

First Impressions Matter: The Weekend Preview

The best time of year is back. Football returns to the NESCAC tomorrow. (Courtesy of Bates Athletics)

The first week of the season is a special time. After 10 long months of waiting, NESCAC football is back to fill up our early Saturday afternoons for eight weeks. Yet, one can’t help but feel like right now is almost a better time to be a NESCAC football fan. After all, by Saturday night half of the teams will be 0-1. The expectations that every team and fanbase has can’t possibly all be met, and so for some, times are better before those expectations come crashing down.

This is the point where my friends tell me that I’m way too cynical. That football games are one of the best events ever created, and we should welcome them like a crying baby does the embrace of a parent. They are right of course. Enjoy tomorrow, and if at all possible get yourself to a game in person. Thanks to the Northeast Sports Network and improvements in technology, watching a NESCAC football game at home is now a great alternative, but nothing beats the ability to watch a game in person. Alright, enough of me rambling: on to the analysis.

Five to Watch

  1. Quarterback Reece Foy ’18 (Amherst): Coach EJ Mills has been loathe to disclose who his starting QB is, but the game preview on the Amherst website and one source have tipped us off to the fact that Foy is getting the nod for the start. Foy has talent, as he actually played at the University of San Diego (DI-AA) for a year before transferring to Amherst before last season. Foy battled for the starting position early in the year before Max Lippe ’15 retook control of the position down the stretch. At only 5’9″, Foye can have trouble seeing all of his reads. He is a good athlete though we didn’t see him run much last year. Even though Foy might start, I still think we see Alex Berluti ’17 play quarterback at some point, also.
  2. Safety Justin Sanchez ’17 (Wesleyan): As one of the two returners on defense for the Cardinals, Sanchez has to be spectacular against Matt Milano ’16 and Middlebury. Stars Donnie Cimino ’15 and Jake Bussani ’14 helped allow Sanchez to roam free and make plays in the run game (he led the Cardinals in tackles last season with 58), but Coach Dan DiCenzo will ask him to do more in pass defense this game. The Wesleyan defense might struggle to stop Middlebury, but if they get a couple of turnovers, that would also be huge. A noted ball-hawk, Sanchez is their best bet to make that happen.
  3. Defensive End James Howe ’16 (Williams): Does dominant 2013 James Howe return or are teams still able to scheme and stop him like in 2014? That question is one Ephs fans are hoping to see answered on Saturday. Top level talent like what Howe displayed in 2013 is rare in the NESCAC, and it can swing games. The defensive line besides Howe is young, but that is no excuse for him as a senior now. I will be watching Howe in person at Bowdoin while (shameless personal plug alert) I am doing the color commentary for NSN, so rest assured that I will keep a close eye on him.
  4. Outside Linebacker Patrick Williams ’16 (Tufts): This is a name you might not know right now, but I have a feeling that Williams is going to have a big senior year. He had 43 tackles and an interception a year ago; solid numbers but nothing special for sure. However, at 6’2″ and 220 he has exceptional size for his position and he moves pretty well. He was only moved to linebacker last season, and he has a better understanding of the position this year. Also, his dream job is to see the world while making money. Me too, Patrick, me too.
  5. Wide Receiver Darrien Myers ’17 (Trinity): Myers has a lot of hype around him after being selected fifth in our Fantasy Draft. Not actually, but Myers is important to watch because he could help create big plays in the passing game for Trinity. That was something the Bantams struggled with last year after relying on AJ Jones ’14 to be a game breaker for them for a long time. In 2014, Myers was targeted on a lot of short passes near the line of scrimmage in order to get him the ball in space and make plays, but it really makes more sense to allow him to use his speed and get behind the defense for big plays.

Game Previews

Editors Note: We are going to cover Wesleyan vs. Middlebury in depth this afternoon. Just sit tight on that one.

Amherst at Bates: Lewiston, Maine, 1:00 PM.

So Foy is the QB, but that doesn’t change much about the Jeffs. Nick Kelly ’17 is going to get the ball a lot, and Kenny Adinkra ’16 and Raheem Jackson ’17 should also get nearly 10 carries apiece. That offensive line had trouble creating holes in 2014 as the Jeffs ran for only 126 yards on 37 carries (42 yards came on one run too). Look out for any tweaks to the Amherst scheme like them rolling Foy out of the pocket or using the read option more because they knew whomever won the starting job would be better suited for that type of offense. A major concern for Foy is just limiting mistakes and taking care of the ball.

#2 Jackson McGonagle '16 is hoping the Amherst passing attack can break out this year. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)
#2 Jackson McGonagle ’16 is hoping the Amherst passing attack can break out this year. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

Outside of Wesleyan, nobody lost more from its roster than Bates so I am not quite sure what to expect from them. The game last year was touch and go to the end, but the defense for Bates will have difficulty keeping this one low-scoring. The best hope for a Bates victory comes from being able to control the clock and hit Mark Riley ’16 on a lot of third downs. The Jeffs of course get the benefit of playing the Bobcats first and have had ample time to get ready defensively to defend the triple option. The 3-4 defense that Amherst runs is already well-suited to stopping it, and the Jeffs have more than enough athleticism in the front seven to make plays. This one won’t be as close as it was last year, but Amherst doesn’t blow many teams out either.

Prediction: Amherst 23 – Bates 7

Williams at Bowdoin: Brunswick, Maine, 1:00 PM

The first game for JB Wells is a chance for Bowdoin to wipe the slate clean and put last year’s 36-0 blowout loss to Williams in the rear mirror. That moment turned out to be the high moment of the year for Williams who face a lot of questions entering the season.

The loss of safety Justin Harris ’17 for the season is a tough one especially since the Ephs also lost Tom Cabarle ’15 to graduation. Corners Taysean Scott ’17 and Mike Davis ’17 are still very good, but the Ephs will really have to hope that their front seven can handle Bowdoin’s running attack without having to bring one of the inexperienced safeties into the box. That running attack is led by Tyler Grant ’17, who didn’t do much in this game last year. The new Bowdoin offense will look similar when they line up, but the action after the snap will be very different. The Polar Bears want to throw the ball more than they did last year, and Dan Barone ’16 will be targeted in the passing game early and often. Because he works out of the slot a lot, I’m not sure how Williams will matchup with him, but he could give the outside linebackers fits.

I’m higher on Austin Lommen ’16 in his senior year than most, and he needs to prove in this game that he can lead the offense even if the running game isn’t working. The Williams receivers will have a large height advantage in at least one of their match ups, but that has often been the case, and they haven’t found a way to exploit it.

As a reminder, I (Adam) played for Bowdoin my freshman year and do not pick their games because of that. So the prediction is from Joe.

Prediction: Bowdoin 17 – Williams 13

Trinity at Colby: Waterville, Maine, 1:00 PM

In case you forgot, Trinity comes into the season with a three-game losing streak. They are going to come ready to play. Sonny Puzzo ’18 is the QB with Henry Foye ’16 ready to play, also. The big battle is in the trenches between the inexperienced Trinity offensive line and the veteran Colby defensive line. The Bantams ended up running all over Colby in the second half last year, but that was after the front seven had been worn down. Chris Marano ’17, Ryan Ruiz ’16 and the rest of that defensive line have to get penetration and stop those big Trinity running backs before they get a head of steam going. When Puzzo does go to throw the ball, he should have great success with all of his talented receivers back against the very inexperienced Colby secondary.

Jabari Hurdle-Price '17 become the team's feature back once Carl Lipani '17 went down with an injury last season and proved that he can carry the load, averaging 4.1 YPC. (Dustin Satloff/Colby College Athletics)
Jabari Hurdle-Price ’17 become the team’s feature back once Carl Lipani ’17 went down with an injury last season and proved that he can carry the load, averaging 4.1 YPC. (Dustin Satloff/Colby College Athletics)

Running back Carl Lipani ’17 had great success running against the Trinity front seven last year, and the Mules have to keep that level of commitment to running the ball in order to not have their defense tired at the end of the game. That also means quarterback Gabe Harrington ’17 has to complete above 60 percent of his passes. The entire linebacking group for Trinity is new, and so Harrington should put pressure on them to make tackles in space by getting the ball to either his running backs or receivers in the flats. Trying to throw the deep ball against Trinity safety Spencer Donahue ’17 is not a winning proposition. The Mules keep it close again for a while, but the strength of Trinity wins out over four quarters

Prediction: Trinity 22 – Colby 16

Tufts at Hamilton: Clinton, New York, 1:00 PM

Year two of Dave Murray’s tenure begins with a Tufts team coming to town eager to prove they are a better team than the one that beat Hamilton a year ago and that they can win on the road. The key for Hamilton is improvement on defense. They held opponents to under 30 points just three times all season in 2014. The good news is that most of the defense is back, and they had to fend off competition for their spots. The offense should be decent overall, but I don’t like the way that things matchup for Hamilton against Tufts. The Continentals had over 400 yards of offense last year, but they didn’t finish drives.

Tufts will run the bubble screen until the Continentals prove they can stop it, and that isn’t easier given the skills of the Tufts slot receivers. I am worried about the quarterback play for Tufts, though. Alex Snyder ’17 has not grabbed the job in the fashion that the coaches were hoping he would, and the Tufts offense will have to be more effective than it was last year when they relied heavily on their defense and special teams to create points. I’ve actually gone back and forth on this one a little because I do like what Murray is selling at Hamilton, but I don’t think his first win comes in this one.

Prediction: Tufts 19 – Hamilton 13

The Jumbos Are Not What They Were: Tufts Season Preview

Zack Trause '15 (#14)is gone, but plenty remains for Tufts. (Courtesy of Kelvin Ma and Tufts University)
Zack Trause ’15 (#14)is gone, but plenty remains for Tufts. (Courtesy of Kelvin Ma and Tufts University)

Editors’ Note: While 99 percent of the work done in these previews is credited directly to the author, the projected records are a decision made together by the editors, Adam and Joe. So if you don’t like it, blame us.

Projected Record: 4–4

Projected Offensive Starters (Eight Returning*)

QB: Alex Snyder ’17
RB: Chance Brady ’17*
WR: Jack Cooleen ’16*
WR: Mike Rando ’17*
WR: Ben Berey ’17*
TE: Nik Dean ’17*
LT: Akene Farmer-Michos ’16*
LG: Tom Gregory ’17
C: TJ Muzzonigro ’17*
RG: Alex Kim ’17
RT: Justin Roberts ’16*

Projected Defensive Starters (Seven Returning*)

DE: Evan Anthony ’17
DT: Ife Adebayo ’16*
DT: Corey Burns ’16*
DE: Tucker Mathers ’17
OLB: Zach Thomas ’18
MLB: Matt McCormack ’16*
OLB: Patrick Williams ’17*
CB: Sebastian Rivera ’17*
SS: Mike Stearns ’17*
FS: Brett Phillips ’18
CB: Junior Arroyo ’16

Offensive MVP: WR/RB Mike Rando ’17

His stats from 2014 don’t scream MVP in part because he was really only healthy for four games last season, so health is one reason for an uptick in production from the junior. The other is that somebody has to replace all of that production now that Zack Trause ’15 is gone. Trause was valuable not as much running the ball but rather his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. Chance Brady ’17 is a very talented running back, and he will get most of the rushing opportunities. That being said, he caught only seven passes in 2014, and the Tufts offense calls for a lot of passes to the running back. It seems likely that you will see Rando a good deal not only in the slot, where he will start most games and be a dangerous player, but also lining up next to the quarterback. The point is he will get plenty of touches (including the return game), and he should capitalize on some of them.

Defensive MVP: Linebacker Matt McCormack ’16

We already told you about Mike Stearns ’17, but have ignored the accomplishments of middle linebacker Matt McCormack ’16. As we have noted in the past, the defensive statistics of teams that play fast paced football can be misleading because of the high total number of plays. That doesn’t mean McCormack isn’t an impressive player. He had 88 total tackles in 2014, the most of anyone in the NESCAC. His best game was against Trinity when he tallied 17 tackles (14 of which were solo). He is made to stop the run at the point of the attack, but for him to gain more recognition (he did not make either All-NESCAC team last year), his ability to defend the pass must show improvement.

Biggest Surprise in Camp: QB Jonathan DiBiaso ’18

We have covered the transfer of QBs at Middlebury and Hamilton much more so than Tufts, and that is an oversight on our part primarily because our expectation was that Alex Snyder ’17 would fall comfortably into the starting spot. However, in talking to Coach Jay Civetti, DiBiaso, a transfer from Dartmouth, is making the decision on who will start very difficult. He is a very good pure passer, and has a lot of experience from high school running the spread offense. DiBiaso was a high school star at Everett High School just down the road from Tufts in Massachusetts. At Everett DiBiaso was one of the most decorated QBs in New England, and having him end up at a NESCAC school is a steal. Having also taken a post-graduate year, he is very experienced for someone who has not played at all at college.

Biggest Game: at Hamilton, September 26. 1:00 PM

Sure, Tufts went 4-4 last year, but they still haven’t gotten the monkey off their back that is winning away from Medford. Going to Hamilton and winning there might not seem like a tall task given the Continentals 16 game losing streak, but nobody knows better than Tufts how dangerous a team is when they are hungry for that first win. In many ways Hamilton dominated the game last year nearly totaling the number of first downs Tufts had, and having 199 more total yards than the Jumbos. Yet the Jumbos found a way to win last year—a knack for winning that they displayed in several other games as the year went along. Beating Hamilton to start the season will prove they have that drive in more places than just Medford.

Best Tweet:

Summary: That 4-4 record from last year probably oversells how good of a team Tufts was a year ago. Their offense was above average with the fourth most yards per game in the league, but their defense was still subpar. Overall the Jumbos had a point differential of -5.4. They weren’t competitive in three of their losses, and the loss of Jack Doll ’15 is a significant one to the offense. The schedule isn’t as forgiving since missing Wesleyan this season is not the godsend it was a year ago. They start the season with two road games and have to play heavyweights Amherst, Trinity, and Middlebury all at home. Being it more likely than not that they struggle against these three teams, the Jumbos will have to win three road games to reach .500. In many instances, you might predict a regression for Tufts, but we don’t see that happening.

The biggest reason is simply that the talent on the Tufts roster is better this year than it was a year ago. Most of the starters are back, and the loss of stars like Trause, Doll, and defensive end James Brao is certainly manageable. The Jumbos have more depth than they have had in the past, especially along the offensive line, which has been an Achilles heel for them over the years. Guys like Akene Farmer-Michos ’16 and Justin Roberts ’16 could see All-NESCAC recognition. That is a significant development seeing as Tufts has had one All-NESCAC offensive lineman since 2009. Whoever ends up emerging in the quarterback battle will have a bunch of toys to play with. Besides Rando, Jack Cooleen ’16 and Ben Berey ’16 are both quality wide receivers. Cooleen is 6’5″ and will see most of the deep balls throw by the Tufts’ QB. Berey meanwhile saw his production collapse down the stretch after having 35 catches through five games. Chance Brady ’17 ended the season getting most of the carries, and he will continue to serve that role. Brady is the most physical back that Tufts has had in recent years, and he will help keep linebackers in the box, which will help to open up Tufts’ quick passing game. Honestly, I’ve never seen a team run as many bubble screens as Tufts did last year—if teams can cheat outside on those, they never work.

The defense took the leap to respectability last year, and they could be a league average unit this year. The defensive line was able to cause more pressure than in years past, but much of it came from the departed Brao. Ife Adebayo ’16 and Corey Burns ’16 are both good defensive tackles, but they don’t get into the backfield that regularly. The Jumbos usually play things pretty straight up on defense, not blitzing that often, but they might have to change things up to help out the secondary. That group is led by Stearns, who switches over from corner to safety where he will be asked to help defend the run even more than before. This secondary still allowed the most yards of any team in the NESCAC last year, and in the final game, Matt Milano ’16 made it look like he was throwing against air. The speed is a little better all-around in the back, but this is the team’s greatest weakness entering the season. The linebackers will miss Tommy Meade ’15, but McCormack and Patrick Williams ’17 will ensure that there will be no real drop off.

It was great to watch Tufts storm out of the basement of the NESCAC, and all the players and coaches deserved every second of last season. 2015 brings a lot of new challenges, however. All reports are that the freshman class is a very talented one, and that they could push for playing time in spots soon. The Jumbos cannot afford to get ahead of themselves and take any team for granted, seeing as that 32 losing streak still looms heavily in the background.