NCAA First Round Preview: Wesleyan University vs. Skidmore College

Game Information: Wesleyan (19-8) vs. Skidmore (19-7)

Friday, March 6, 5:30 PM

Goldfrab Gym at Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD

Live Stats  Video

In case you hadn’t heard, Wesleyan University is playing in its first ever NCAA Division-III Tournament, and they’re pretty excited about it.

The Cardinals come into this game playing their best basketball of the season, having won five straight and sweeping through NCAA Tournament teams Bates, Trinity and Amherst on the way to Wesleyan’s first-ever NESCAC title. Jack Mackey ’16 was awarded NESCAC Player of the Week honors for his clutch performance last weekend, and as a unit the entire Cardinals’ roster played great defensively, especially when it counted, in all three NESCAC tournament games.

The same can be said of the Skidmore Thoroughbreds who have gone 16-2 in 2015 and return to the NCAA Tournament under fifth-year coach Joe Burke after a two-year hiatus. Skidmore leaned on a tough early-season schedule to boost its SOS, but that didn’t matter as the Thoroughbreds had no trouble winning their third Liberty League title under Coach Burke and earning an automatic bid to the big dance. Of the Thoroughbreds’ seven losses, four came early in the season to some strong competition, including two NESCAC squads. Skidmore suffered a one-point loss to #4 Babson back in November, a three-point loss to Plattsburgh St. (19-8) and then a couple of close defeats to Williams and Middlebury. The only Liberty League opponent that bested the Thoroughbreds was Hobart, which defeated Skidmore twice. Hobart was a team that didn’t shoot the ball particularly well, but played very strong defense, essentially the opposite of what Wesleyan did for most of the season.

Of the four seniors on the Skidmore roster, only two played in the 2012 NCAA Tournament and will be active on Friday night. Eric Lowry ’15 is a transfer and Perun Kovacevic ’15 hasn’t played since January 24 for personal reasons. Both Nanribet Yiljep ’15 and Connor Merrill ’15 played important roles on Skidmore’s 2011-12 tournament team but for all intents and purposes both teams are getting their first taste of the NCAA stage. That doesn’t bother Yiljep.

“Like I tell my teammates, we’re breaking records this year,” Yiljep said. “It’s the first time we hosted the Liberty League tournament at home, it’s the first time we won it at home…and we’ve never gone past the first round. That’s another record to break. Let’s just break records.”

Since Kovacevic, who had started all 13 games up to January 24, exited the lineup, Martin Bedulskij ’18 and Royce Paris ’17 have seen their roles expand, with Bedulskij taking over in the starting lineup. Paris, though, has been the bigger surprise. Since January 31 he has scored double figures in eight of 10 games. Paris’ quickness and toughness to guard one-on-one may rival that of BJ Davis ’16, believed by some to be the toughest one-on-one guard in the NESCAC.

Wesleyan X-FactorsHarry Rafferty ’17

Rafferty will likely come off the bench against Skidmore because of the Thoroughbreds’ size, but his ability to create a scoring punch in relief will be critical for Wesleyan. These teams are similar in that they play very short rotations. I think that Skidmore has the weapons to guard most of the Cardinals, but Rafferty could get lost in the sauce. Erik Sanders ’16 and Connor Merrill ’15 matchup well with Joseph Kuo ’17 and Rashid Epps ’16, Aldin Medunjanin’16 will be all over Mackey, Paris can match Davis’ quickness and Bedulskij has the height to challenge shots from Joe Edmonds ’16. That doesn’t leave much in the way of someone who can stop the lefty sniper, who went cold during the NESCAC tournament but will look to breakout during the NCAAs.

Skidmore X-Factor: Aldin Medunjanin ’16

Medunjanin earned Co-Liberty League Player of the Year and in big games big players have to step up. The point guard is going to be a problem for the Cardinals, because he’s too strong and too tall for most point guards to cover, and the Wesleyan point guard triumvirate doesn’t boast exceptional height. Medunjanin plays a bit like an oversized Lucas Hausman ’16, constantly looking to drive and finish in traffic. But he also shoots the ball pretty well from deep (36.4 percent), and has better options in Sanders and Merrill to whom he can distribute the basketball.

Joe Reilly and the Cardinals celebrated their NESCAC title in classic fashion - but they're not done yet. (Courtesy of Wesleyan Connection)
Joe Reilly and the Cardinals celebrated their NESCAC title in classic fashion – but they’re not done yet. (Courtesy of Wesleyan Connection)

Storylines to Watch

1. Effect of the weather

Weather isn’t usually a factor in basketball games, but when it forces the Skidmore team bus to sit idle in the middle of the Jersey Turnpike, weather becomes a big story. Skidmore’s bus ride to Johns Hopkins was delayed for hours on Thursday afternoon, making the chances of the team getting an opportunity to practice on the Goldfarb Gym floor on Thursday night highly unlikely. Wesleyan, meanwhile, arrived at Johns Hopkins around dinner time, leaving plenty of time to get a feel for the court.

2. Can Skidmore stop the three ball?

Skidmore’s calling card all year has been defense. The Thoroughbreds boast the fifth-best field goal percentage defense in Division-III, but that stat is bolstered by the fact that they shut down a lot of mediocre Liberty League teams. But make no mistake, Skidmore also held Middlebury to 57 points and Plattsburgh St. to 60, so that defense is no fluke. Coach Burke confirmed, however, that if Wesleyan gets hot from beyond the arch they are very difficult to beat, and with four of the NESCAC’s better three-ball shooters in Mackey, Davis, Rafferty and Edmonds, stopping that facet of Wesleyan’s game is a tall order.

3. Who can guard the athletic big man, Erik Sanders ’16?

Sanders is listed at 6’5″, 190 lbs., similar to Wesleyan’s Epps who is 6’4″, 210 lbs. However, Epps might have a tough time guarding Sanders, who handles the ball as well as a lot of guards. We understand it’s a highlight, and of course it’s going to make him look good, but go to the 1:30 mark of the below video interview with Skidmore Coach Joe Burke to get an idea of how versatile Sanders’ game is.

What to Expect

As always, Wesleyan’s success will be dictated by how well they shoot the basketball. Even on a poor shooting day Wesleyan can win, but it will be much tougher to do. Medunjanin really creates a matchup issue for Wesleyan, but on the flip side I doubt that Skidmore has played a team with as many shooting weapons as Wesleyan and they’ll have to adjust to that style. Expect some first time jitters from both sides, which is fair on a stage this big.

Also, let’s give a little love to the Cardinal big men, Kuo and Epps. Aside from producing a myriad of highlight reel dunks, Kuo has been very efficient offensively recently and Epps is a workhorse that grabs a lot of boards without great height. In the end, I have to tip the big man advantage Skidmore’s way. I mean, the Thoroughbreds have two All-Liberty League players in their front court. But the margin isn’t huge, which is why this game will be won by guard play.

The Cards aren't the only team that enjoyed a nice court storming last weekend. Skidmore is also coming off of a conference championship. (Courtesy of Skidmore Athletics)
The Cards aren’t the only team that enjoyed a nice court storming last weekend. Skidmore is also coming off of a conference championship. (Courtesy of Skidmore Athletics)

Prediction:

I’ve watched a good amount of Wesleyan basketball this year, which means I know how good they can be. But I also recognize their flaws. So does that mean I end up overrating or underrating the Cardinals? I suppose only the outcome of tonight’s game will tell. I’m predicting that the magic continues for Wesleyan. I think they’ve shown that they can beat high quality teams time and time again, unlike Skidmore, who played a lot of very good teams tightly but couldn’t quite squeeze out the victory. In terms of X’s and O’s, for me the back court advantage for Wesleyan outweighs the front court advantage for Skidmore. Go Wes go!

Wesleyan 61 – Skidmore 53