The Stakes Rise: The Weekend Preview 10/18

As we move to the stretch run, the biggest games of the season are still in front of us. When Wesleyan and Amherst meet on Saturday, more than just the Little Three will be on the line. The winner will have the best victory of the year and a good shot at going undefeated.

All eyes will be on Middletown, but a lot of other games will offer intrigue as well. Bates visits Middlebury in a game that should stay close if the Bates defense can play like they did for the better part of last week. Trinity makes the trip north to Maine for a game that could be tricky against a Bowdoin team that has now won two in a row. The other two games should be close as well.

Three to Watch

Running Back Devon Carrillo ’17 (Wesleyan): The salve to Wesleyan’s running problems might be the Middletown, Connecticut native. Last week Coach Mike Whalen used Carrillo as a wildcat quarterback in certain situations. The formation gave Bates fits with the highlight being a 66 yard run in the second quarter that saw Carrillo weave his way through the Bobcat defense. He accounted for 92 of Wesleyan’s 143 rushing yards (64.3%). After a freshman year that saw him return kicks and be the second leading tackler on defense, his role has shifted to the offensive side of the ball. On the Wesleyan website he is listed as a linebacker, and he played both ways in the first two weeks of the season, but he did not record a tackle last week. If Wesleyan can’t get traction running the ball with Jesse Warren ’15 under center then they will turn to Carrillo for a spark.

Linebacker Tim Patricia ’16 (Middlebury)- The leading tackler in the NESCAC over the last two years, Patricia has seen his production dip slightly as others on the Panther defense have emerged. Yet the junior could have a big game production wise on Saturday against Bates. Linebackers like Chris Tamasi ’15 and James O’Grady ’16 have enjoyed some of their best games this year against Bates because the run heavy offense gives linebackers a wealth of opportunities to make plays. The loss of Ryan Curit ’14 and Shawn Doherty ’14 has hampered Bates so far, but Middlebury will still have to bring their best game on Saturday. The skill level all around the Panther defense is much higher than it was two years ago. The reputation of a finesse team that they gained in past years does not ring true now. Patricia has been a big part of that change.

Defensive Tackle Tom Wells ’15 (Bowdoin)- A 2013 second team All-NESCAC performer, Wells is one of three seniors on the defensive line for Bowdoin that will try to stop the vaunted Trinity running game. The last time the two teams met in Brunswick the Polar Bears held Trinity to 3.4 yards per rush, and Trinity had only a 13-10 lead at halftime. Wells has three tackles for loss on the year, and along with lineman Jake Prince ’15 and Brian Golger ’15, will take on the vaunted Trinity offensive line. Right now the Polar Bears rank last in the NESCAC in defensive yards per rush at 3.9. Against Trinity the front seven will have to step up for Bowdoin to spring an upset.

The Picks

Game of the Week: Amherst (4-0) at Wesleyan (4-0)

Last year this was the game when Wesleyan broke through and showed that they had truly joined the top echelon of the league. A late Amherst rally fell short of succeeding, and two weeks later the Cardinals were celebrating their first Little Three title in 41 years.

Yet Amherst really outplayed Wesleyan in that game but lost for two big reasons – turnovers and field position. Amherst had four turnovers (three interceptions and one fumble) to Wesleyan’s zero. Then Wesleyan converted two short fields after Amherst punts into touchdowns which proved to be the difference.

Therefore, punter/receiver Jackson McGonagle ’16 and quarterback Max Lippe ’15 are the keys for the Jeffs. McGonagle has a great leg and can boom punts when he hits it right, but he is inconsistent and too often ends up hitting the ball poorly. Lippe reclaimed his position after not playing at all in the first three weeks and changed the look of the Amherst offense. He made good reads and solidified the passing game.

We fully expect Lippe to get the nod to start, but if he struggles Alex Berluti ’17 or Reece Foy ’18 should be ready to go. Lippe went 20-35 for 195 yards and had two touchdowns and two interceptions against the Cardinals in 2013. He spread the ball around last week which is a must against a Wesleyan secondary capable of turning any mistake into six points the other way.

Amherst has likely spent a lot of time in practice getting ready for Carrillo and the wildcat, but stopping it will still not be easy. Whalen likely did not want to run the wildcat so much last week, but the lack of any other running game forced his hand. Losing LaDarius Drew ’15 has cost Wesleyan more than expected with Kyle Gibson ’15 unable to find lanes of space.

Jesse Warren ’15 has proven in the first half that he is not merely a beneficiary of a strong running game and has been the best quarterback in the NESCAC. He set a new personal record in attempts (38) and completions (24 – the first time he has had more than 20) against Bates, making big throws one third down and long.

These are the two best statistical defense in the NESCAC at this point, and both offenses carry heavy question marks. Though it is Wesleyan’s homecoming, students are on fall break so the crowd might be large but not necessarily loud. Amherst hopes that Lippe can continue his play from last week, and we think he makes enough plays to carry them to victory in a low scoring game.

Prediction: Amherst 17 over Wesleyan 13

Bates (1-3) at Middlebury (2-2): The overtime victory for Middlebury last week was thrilling and represented another step in Matt Milano’s ’16 development. Now the Panthers have to turn around and protect their home turf against Bates. No word on whether Matt Cannone ’15 will play, but Patrick Dugan ’16 is capable of making plays as well. Our mid-season Defensive Player of the Year Ryan Newson ’15 will need to play well to keep Milano and company in check. These two teams have played three common opponents and played them similarly.

Prediction: Middlebury 21 over Bates 13

Williams (1-3) at Tufts (2-2): Even though they lost at Trinity 35-14, the Jumbos won respect for how they played the Bantams in Hartford. It took Trinity a while to pull away. Williams looked much better back at home, but the Ephs need to see results soon. Tackling in space is a must for the Williams secondary as Tufts will consistently run screens to their wide receivers. QB Austin Lommen ’16 has to take some of the load off running back Alex Scyocurka ’14. Williams averages the fewest tackles for loss per game on defense and Tufts is allowing the most first downs per game in the NESCAC so the potential is there for some fireworks.

Prediction: Williams 34 over Tufts 28

Trinity (4-0) at Bowdoin (2-2): The Bantams take their roadshow north to face off against a Bowdoin team that has turned around their season after a slow start. The announcement by Head Coach Dave Caputi that he would be stepping down at the end of this year could lead to a fired up Bowdoin squad. Trinity has started slow in a lot of their games, but they wear teams down over the course of their season. The weather will be a factor especially on the grass field. Trinity will load the box to stop Tyler Grant ’17 and see if Mac Caputi ’15 can make throws to his receivers in one on one coverage.

Editors Note: the game prediction is by Joe MacDonald.

Prediction: Trinity 35 over Bowdoin 17

Hamilton (0-4) at Colby (0-4): As meetings between two 0-4 teams go, this is a much better game than you might expect. Colby has finished their murderers row of an opening schedule, but the physical toll was heavy with the Colby staff having to resort to playing some players both ways. The Colby offense should be better after having to face four great defense. Hamilton look like they have a very good player in running back LaShawn Ware ’17 who has now lead the Continentals in rushing two of the last three weeks.

Prediction: Colby 24 over Hamilton 20

Last Week: 4-1

Season Record: 17-3

Mid-Season Awards – The Definitive Edition

Four weeks gone, four to go, and a whole lot of fun still to be had. The time has come to recognize a few of the players, coaches, and even teams  that have been living it up in the first half. And by living it up we mean making the NESCAC their own personal fiefdoms. Little fiefdoms where they carve up the opposition with the help of their teammates

Alright we’ll stop with the fiefdoms thing and get onto the awards.

Offensive Player of the Year: Running Back Chudi Iregbulem ’15 (Trinity)

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Courtesy of Trinity Athletics

Our preseason pick Wesleyan’s LaDarius Drew ’15 might be out for the entire season because of a foot injury, and Iregbulem has emerged from obscurity to be the clear winner at the halfway point. Well, not completely from obscurity, considering we did tab him as our dark horse contender before the year started. He ran for 137 yards in 2013, and came within three yards of that in his first game alone. He averaged “only” 84 yards the next two weeks before busting out for 184 yards and four touchdowns against Tufts on Saturday. The senior from Torrance, California waited his turn behind Evan Bunker ’14 and Ben Crick ’14 until this year. That is the way that Trinity works. They lose somebody, it’s next guy up every time. If Iregbulem keeps up his play, he will do something Bunker never did, win Offensive Player of the Year.

Consider this award also recognition for the Trinity offensive line that is the best in the league.

Also Considered: Jack Doll ’15 (Tufts), Jesse Warren ’15 (Wesleyan), Mark Riley ’16 (Bates), Alex Scyocurka ’14 (Williams), and Tyler Grant ’17 (Bowdoin)

Defensive Player of the Year: Safety Ryan Newson ’15 (Bates)

Courtesy of Bates Athletics
Courtesy of Bates Athletics

Newson is another player who has stepped into big shoes and in some ways out performed his predecessor. Andrew Kukesh ’14 was an All-NESCAC player multiple times for Bates, and the Bobcats have found a replacement just as good. Newson is one of three players to have four interceptions already, and he is also making a lot of tackles from his safety position. His 37 total tackles (24 solo) place him ninth in the league. The Bates staff knew what they had last year when they decided to move Kukesh to linebacker for  some games and get Newson on the field as much as possible. The Bates defense has played very well keeping the Bobcats in games despite their 1-3 record.

Also Considered: Jake Bussani ’14 (Wesleyan), Jaymie Spears ’16 (Amherst), Mike Stearns ’17 (Tufts), Addison Pierce ’17 (Middlebury), and Paul Johnson ’17 (Amherst)

NESCAC Rookie of the Year: Running Back Drew Jacobs ’18 (Middlebury)

Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics
Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics

Every year this is the most wide-open race, and we don’t even try to predict it before the season begins because coaches are loathe to reveal which freshmen will be big time performers before the season begins. Jacobs has lapped every other freshman in terms of production in the first half. He is seventh in the NESCAC in total rushing yards, but he really makes his mark in the receiving game as a running back. Jacobs has the fourth most yards from scrimmage in the NESCAC. He has brought some shiftiness to the Middlebury running game that has helped the offense become more balanced. This is the race most likely to change given that freshman usually see increased playing time in the second half as they gain more practice reps.

Also Considered: Reece Foy ’18 (Amherst), Drew Korn ’18 (Bates), Zach Altneu ’18 (Hamilton), Mbasa Mayikana ’18 (Colby), Bryan Vieira ’18 (Trinity), and Andrew Sisti ’18 (Bowdoin)

Special Teams Player of the Year : Kick Returner Zack Trause ’15 (Tufts)

Courtesy of Tufts Athletics
Courtesy of Tufts Athletics

Nobody else has been as dynamic as Trause in the open field through one half of the year. He ranks second in the nation in kickoff return average at 39.6 yards per return and third in the nation in punt return average at 22.4 yards per return.. His game of the year came against Bates when he returned both a kickoff and punt for a touchdown to propel Tufts to their exciting victory. He has come close to two other touchdowns as well with the kicker bringing him down once both against Bowdoin and then last week against Trinity. Teams might start to kick away from him given his proficiency and tendency to make teams pay every time they do.

Also Considered: Joe Mallock ’15 (Williams), Michael Dola ’15 (Middlebury), David Kurey ’15 (Bates), and Devon Carillo ’17 (Wesleyan)

Coach of the Year: Jay Civetti (Tufts)

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Courtesy of Tufts Athletics

No story has been better than Tufts in the first half of the NESCAC season. The Jumbos broke out from their 31-game losing streak with two straight wins to begin the season. Both games at home saw capacity crowds in Medford. The first win was a great moment for Tufts, but Civetti deserves more credit for turning his team around and getting them ready for their Week 2 game against Bates. That win to bring the Jumbos to 2-0 signaled that real change is afoot at Tufts. Civetti has seen a lot of losing at Tufts, and he is likely to still see a good deal more, but right now the program looks pointed in the right direction with him at the helm.

Also Considered: Mike Whalen (Wesleyan) and EJ Mills (Amherst)

Bates Team Preview – The Bobcats Are on the Prowl

2013 Record: 4-4

Returning Starters: 15 (6 offense, 9 defense, 0 specialists)

Offensive Overview:

The triple option run game always makes Bates a headache to face, but the loss of Ryan Curit ’14 and Shawn Doherty ’14 to graduation could change the number of passes this season. Matt Cannone ’15 will have to fend off a challenge from Patrick Dugan ’16 at QB. Dugan was seeing the majority of the snaps before he broke his ankle in the second game of last season, and Cannone played well in his absence. Nick LaSpada, backup QB in 2013, has also transferred to Merrimack. Ivan Reese ’17 replaces Curit in the fullback position that requires great physicality. In his only game as the starter against Middlebury, Reese rushed for 101 yards. Replacing Doherty is more worrisome because the returning players have much less experience. Shaun Carroll has the most yards of any returner- 61. To make matters even worse, leading wide receiver Kevin Davis ’14 also graduated leaving the passing game without its most dynamic target. Harrison Murphy ’16 and Chris Tomaino ’15 both have good size at 6’5″ and 6’2″ respectively while Mark Riley ’16 has also flashed big play ability.

The offensive line returns three starters in Larry Guinee ’15, Owen Mahan ’15, and Lyle Seebeck ’16. Mitch Hildreth ’17 will be one of the tackles with Jimmy Fagan ’17 the favorite to win the final tackle position. The interior line is more important for Bates than other teams because they run more often, so having returners at all three of those positions, with a three year starter in Guinee at center,  is a huge advantage for them. Finding playmakers on offense around the QB will be essential before the first game against Amherst.

Defensive Overview:

Star safety Andrew Kukesh ’14 is gone, but the defense should be better this season given all the starters back. Injuries forced younger players to step in, and now with those injured players back, the defense is one of the deepest Bates has ever had. The Bobcats runs the 3-3 stack that allows them to employ multiple fronts and blitz packages. Sam Hundley ’15, Joe DiPalma, and Tucker Oniskey ’16 start on the defensive line where they do the uncelebrated job of often having to take on multiple blockers. DiPalma is returning from a preseason injury that knocked him out of virtually all of 2013. Linebacker is very deep with Adam Cuomo ’15, Steven Hild ’15, and Josh Freedland ’15 all very experienced. Mark Upton ’17 also saw playing time earlier than expected because of injury and will provide depth and flexibility.

Unique to the Bates defense is the down safety, a player on both sides who has to be able to control the edge, rush the passer sometimes, and help out in coverage. Gilbert Brown ’15 is coming off a season where he performed well despite moving around position-wise. Pat Gilligan ’15 is currently the starter on the other side, and Ben Coulibaly ’17 will push him hard for playing time. Corner Mike Kelleher ’15 takes over the mantle of leader in the secondary without Kukesh. Kelleher is bigger than most NESCAC corners and is not afraid to come up in run coverage, tallying the second most tackles on the team last year. Safety Ryan Newson ’15 is the other returner in the group, and he played very well in part time action a year ago, so the dropoff from Kukesh might not be that significant.  The final corner position is Mike Lee’s ’16, with Brandon Williams ’17 a solid prospect for more playing time as well.

Courtesy of Bates Athletics
Courtesy of Bates Athletics

3 Big Questions:

1. Where does the offensive dynamism come from?

Even though the triple option is often seen as “three yards and a cloud of dust”, like any offense it still looks for big plays. Doherty and Davis supplied the vast majority of those. The QB will be featured more running the ball, but if the defense can key on one guy in the triple option, it’s over for Bates. An intriguing possibility (disclaimer: we have no evidence this has even been discussed by the Bates staff) is to move one of Dugan or Cannone to the slot position in order to get the most possible talent out on the field.

2. Can they hold onto the ball?

Bates fumbled the ball 15 times last season. Cannone alone accounted for six of them. One positive is that Reese did not fumble the ball once last season in his 50 carries while Curit had four fumbles, albeit in 145 rushes. An offense that struggles to move the ball and turns it over is an awful one. If Bates makes sure to take care of the turnover part, the offense will at least be decent.

3. Will all the pieces on defense fit together?

For all the talent and depth on the defense now, Bates finished ahead of only Hamilton and Tufts in terms of total yards given up. They allowed the Hamilton offense, a unit that averaged 283.8 yards per game, 392 yards in the final game of the season. They have to figure out ways to get more pressure on the QB as they only registered nine sacks last season. The loss of Kukesh appears likely to be significant as well. It won’t be enough to have a lot of very good players for Bates; a few of them will have to step up and become great.

Team MVP: Cannone would get the nod except it’s possible he is not even the starter week one, so instead the interior offensive line gets some glory for once. The trio of Guinee, Mahan, and Seebeck should clear big holes for Reese and the QB to run through. Guinee in particular is important as the center for helping to figure out blocking assignments.

Biggest Game: Oct. 25: Home against Colby

This one is simple. Bates gets the chance to avenge their 21-3 loss at home. Last season’s game was a disappointment with four turnovers playing a major role in Colby’s comfortable win. Bates was held for only 88 yards rushing, the first time they were held to under 100 yards rushing since Colby held them to 85 yards in 2011. The Bobcats will have to find a solution to the Colby defense.

Best Tweet: In case you didn’t know, Bates football lifts. #lightweight (actually a good deal of weight)

Bates has some questions to answer, but behind a strong offensive line and wealth of returners on defense, they appear capable of challenging anybody.