The Experienced Bobcats Are Back: Bates Football 2016 Season Preview

Bobcat Nation is ready to get going up in Lewiston! (Courtesy of Josh Kuckens and Bates Athletics).
The squad is ready to get going up in Lewiston! (Courtesy of Josh Kuckens and Bates Athletics).

Projected Record: 2-6

Projected Offensive Starters (*Six Returning)

QB: Sandy Plashkes ‘19

RB: Peter Boyer ‘19

SE: Marcus Ross ‘19*

SE: Noah Stebbins ‘18

Slot: Mickoy Nichol ‘18*

Slot: Frank Williams: ‘18*

LT: Sean Lovett ‘18*

LG: Dylan Rasch ‘18

C: Jimmy Fagan ‘17*

RG: Martin Guinee ‘19

RT: Mitch Hildreth ‘17*

Projected Defensive Starters (*Ten Returning)

DE: Jack Maritz ‘18

DT: Collin Richardson ‘18*

DE: Sean Antonuccio ‘17*

OLB: Joe Frake ‘19*

ILB: Sam Francis ‘17*

ILB: Mark Upton ‘17*

ILB: Max Breschi ‘18*

OLB: Andrew Jenkelunas ‘18*

CB: Brandon Williams ‘17*

FS: Trevor Lyons ‘17*

CB: Arthur Churchwell ‘19*

Projected Specialists (*Three Returning)

PK: Grant Dewald ‘18*

P: Justin Foley ‘19*

KR/PR: Frank Williams ‘18*/Ben Coulibaly ‘17

Offensive MVP: Tailback Peter Boyer ’19

Boyer took last year to get his feet wet, and now he is primed and ready to lead the Bobcat rushing attack. Averaging 4.3 yards per carry last year, Boyer showed his potential, so expect this to be a big year for him. With quarterback Patrick Dugan ‘16 gone, expect to see Boyer take on more of the workload until Sandy Plashkes ‘19 settles in under center.

Defensive MVP: Linebacker Mark Upton ’17

A team captain this year, Upton started all eight games last year at middle linebacker. He was the engineer of this defense and finished second in the NESCAC in total tackles (71) and tackles per game (9). He has led the conference in forced fumbles (3) for two years straight and also led the Bobcats in sacks (4) and tackles for loss (8) last year, illustrating his natural instincts for pursuing the pigskin. He was also named to New England Football Writers DIII  All-New England team and won the Stephen B. Ritter Academic Award (top-10 cumulative grade point average). Very active on the ball, expect Upton to raise his level of play again this year as he steps onto the gridiron for one more season.

Biggest Game: October 29th vs. Colby

The first game in Bates’ CBB title defense kicks off when Colby comes to Lewiston. I think this is going to be their biggest game because of the gritty battle these two had last year that ended in a margin of victory of just a single point. Expect Coach Harriman to come out trying to implement the same kind of defensive strategy he did against them last year, but know that Colby will come out swinging as they look for revenge. Expect a run-first defensive game that will come down to the final possession. I believe Sandy Plashkes will be the X-factor in the game, as Bates will depend on his efficiency in order to spread the field and open up the rushing attack for the Bobcats.

Best Tweet: It’s hard to go wrong quoting Belichick.

Summary:

Even though Bates did not finish last season with a great record, the Bobcats feel that there is a lot of promise for this season. A lot of key guys who were once the young guns are now the seasoned veterans, which bodes well for Bates. Depth is not an issue, which means Coach Harriman can get experimental with players at different positions if need be.

One of the things the team wants to emphasize this season coming off of last season is turning margin of error into margin of victory. Last year, four of the Bates’ eight games were decided by 12 points or less. Throughout preseason, the leaders on the team have been harping on perfecting the “little things,” such as understand the situation in a game or where to be positioned on the field. In an eight-game season, the little things often decide how well you do in the NESCAC. For the Bobcats to see success they have to do a better job in the red zone, both offensively and defensively, something that hurt them in critical moments of games last year.

One of the biggest questions is the quarterback spot. Patrick Dugan ‘16 is a big loss, so it will be interesting to see how the season unfolds with sophomore Plashkes taking over. He should be pretty comfortable behind center with a veteran line that has captain James Fagan ‘17, three-year starter Mitch Hildreth ‘17, and Sean Lovett ‘18 anchoring the front. In regards to the skill positions on offense, Bates is deep and boasts good slot receivers in Noah Stebbins ‘18 and Marcus Ross ‘19, who came onto the scene late last season as a freshman.

As for the defensive unit, almost every starter is returning from 2015, so the Bobcats should show improvement through experience in this respect. The hard-hitting Upton will lead the unit with classmate Brandon Williams ’17 who led the team with six total takeaways. Sam Francis ’17, who ranked third on the team with 49 total tackles, is another leader on this team who will make a big impact on this side of the ball.

The Bobcats will rely on the front seven to take pressure off of the defensive backs, who allowed almost 250 passing yards per game last season. The secondary will be thrown right into the fire when they face Trinity on opening day, so we will see where Coach Harriman’s team stands on Saturday.

The Treaty of Westphalia (and NESCAC Football): Weekend Preview 10/24

DB Cameron Rondeau '19 and the Polar Bears are flying high after a 30-20 win a week ago. (CIPhotography.com/Bowdoin Athletics)
DB Cameron Rondeau ’19 and the Polar Bears are flying high after a 30-20 win a week ago. (CIPhotography.com/Bowdoin Athletics)

On October 24 in 1648, the Treaty of Westphalia was signed, ending the 30 Years’ War. More importantly, the treaty established the principle known as Westphalian Sovereignty, which means that all countries are equal in international law and all countries have sovereignty over all affairs within their own borders. It is widely regarded as crucial in developing the system of nation-states in Europe for the rest of the millennium.

That has nothing to do with NESCAC football, but I include it in the article to remind you that nothing done on Saturday during a NESCAC football game will be remembered in 377 years like the Treaty of Westphalia. In 377 years people will look at football the same way we look at Renaissance Fairs. Not that the games don’t matter – of course they do. Enjoy them, imbibe in them, and tell all your friends at the game to read Nothing but NESCAC. Enough with the rambling, onto the actual analysis.

Four to Watch

  1. Wide Receiver Charles Ensley ’17 (Hamilton): I was able to see Ensley close up last Saturday against Bowdoin. Obviously, I came away impressed as he had eight catches for 139 yards and a touchdown. Honestly he could have had even more yards than that, but the Hamilton QBs missed him on a couple of throws down the field. Ensley regularly got behind Bowdoin’s defensive secondary. Ensley seems to be a favorite of Cole Freeman ’18,  who came on to replace Chase Rosenberg ’17, at the end of the second quarter: all of his catches came after Freeman entered the game.
  2. Cornerback Tim Preston ’19 (Tufts): Despite not playing in the opening game, Preston (whom I incorrectly called a linebacker last week) is tied for the league lead in interceptions with four. Every week his statistics and play-making has become better and better. Last week was his official coming out party with two interceptions which he returned for 55 total yards. An even 6’0″, he is taller than most NESCAC cornerbacks, and this picture shows perfectly how he uses that height to his advantage. Preston will get plenty of action against the pass-happy Ephs.
  3. Linebacker Philippe Archambault ’19 (Bowdoin): Another freshman defensive player making a big impact after a slow start is Archambault. He entered the starting lineup against Tufts in Week 3, and in the two games since he has 19 tackles. More impressive is that he has three sacks in two games. Archambault plays middle linebacker, and both of his sacks against Hamilton came on delayed stunts where he came free. Trinity’s offensive line gives the French-Canadian another new challenge to take on.
  4. Quarterback Patrick Dugan ’16 (Bates): Dugan had a game to forget against Williams two weeks ago going 1-14, but he bounced back against Wesleyan throwing for 204 yards on 14-30 passing. I would still like Bates to be more unpredictable in throwing the ball on early downs, but allowing Dugan to throw the ball 30 times is still encouraging. He is never going to be a high completion percentage type, and the offense is never going to revolve around him throwing the ball. Still, getting the ball downfield in order to gain big chunks is a must.

Game Previews

Colby (0-4) at Hamilton (0-4): 12:00 PM, Clinton, NY

Live Stats  Video

A winless team will get on the board. Assuming Freeman starts at QB, the Continentals will have their third different starting QB this season, and the running game for Hamilton has not gotten going. Against the experienced defensive line led by Ryan Ruiz ’16, that won’t change very much. I was expecting more from the Continentals last week frankly, but they were dominated for three of the four quarters by the Polar Bears.

The statistics for Colby last week against Amherst are truly shocking. The Mules outgained the Jeffs 400-307 and also had the advantage in first downs 23-15. Most unbelievable, Colby held the ball for 36:48. Even though they never seriously threatened Amherst, for the second straight week they showed that they are capable of playing quality football. Jabari Hurdle-Price ’17 has cemented himself as one of the best running backs in the league. The long drive to Hamilton scares me, but I’m going with the Mules

Prediction: Colby over Hamilton 13-10

Bowdoin (1-3) at Trinity (4-0): 1:00 PM, Hartford, CT

Live Stats  Video

The Bantams looked oh so mortal last week, in large part because of their own mistakes. They had five turnovers and a crazy 13 penalties for 144 yards. They also somehow went 2-12 on third down even though they had 523 yards of total offense. Those are all fixable things, and the Bantams didn’t come into the game doing any of those things particularly poorly. Linebacker Liam Kenneally ’18 is quickly taking up the mantle of Bantam linebackers, finishing with 11 tackles last week. Even though the defense gave up 323 yards, they still held Alex Snyder ’17 to 11-30 throwing the ball. Through four games, opposing QBs have a completion percentage of 41.7 percent (53-127) and are averaging 138.5 YPG through the air.

Quarterback Noah Nelson ’19 had as fine a debut as one could have hoped for, but the sequel will have trouble matching that success. Nelson did a great job finding the open receiver and trusting his guys to make plays in one-on-one match-ups. The windows in the defense will be smaller and the jump balls might not be completed, and he won’t have as much time in the pocket as he did last week. Of course, Nelson can play loose as a daisy: nobody is expecting him to beat Trinity in the Coop in his second college start. Tim Drakeley ’17 will be back healthy next week, and the Polar Bears will reevaluate their QB situation then. Nelson could win the job permanently if he plays well, but he won’t necessarily lose it if he has a sub-par performance.

As for the game Saturday, Trinity plays better at home than they do on the road, the Bantams need to get everything working right before they begin their tough three-game final stretch. Still, remember that Bowdoin led Trinity 10-3 entering the 4th quarter last year…

Prediction: Trinity over Bowdoin 28-14

 

Middlebury (3-1) at Bates (0-4): 1:00 PM

Can Matt Minno '16 (88) keep up his current hot streak? (Photo by Joe MacDonald)
Can Matt Minno ’16 (88) keep up his current hot streak? (Photo by Joe MacDonald)

Live Stats  Video

Bates has now lost three games in a row by single digits. That sucks, plain and simple. The defense has been decent at not giving up points, but they still allowed 447 yards last week and are giving up an average of 424.5 per game. Even though some players like Brandon Williams ’17 and Sam Francis ’17 have quickly become important pieces of the puzzle, there is still enough inexperience that the defense has difficulty getting stops.

Matt Milano ’16 is going to put up big numbers this week, I can bet that, but how efficient will he be doing it? He was 20-41 against Williams, but he also was below 50 percent against Williams last year. He then used the Bates game as a springboard to his eye-popping second half. The Panthers can still grab a share of the NESCAC title. As long as their run defense, the second-worst in the league giving up an average of 171.5 YPG, isn’t completely exposed, they will pull this one out.

Prediction: Middlebury over Bates 24-13

 

Tufts (3-1) at Williams (2-2): 2:00 PM, Williamstown, MA

Live Stats  Video

These two have had three common opponents: both beat Bowdoin handily, squeaked by Bates, and lost to Trinity. Tufts obviously played the Bantams closer (Williams lost 24-0 compared to the 34-27 overtime loss for Tufts). Playing the comparative opponent’s game can be tricky, so I’m going to mostly disregard it. The Ephs defense completely ran out of a gas in the second half against Middlebury, allowing 27 straight points to finish the game after Williams went up 14-9 in the third quarter. Things get a little easier against Tufts. Not that much, though, with Chance Brady ’17, the leading rusher in the NESCAC, transforming the Jumbos into a more ground-heavy attack.

The Jumbos defense’s greatest weakness is against the pass; Williams loves to throw the ball, so advantage Ephs there. Austin Lommen ’16 just has to stop throwing bad interceptions; he has six, the second the most in the league. The Ephs defense doesn’t scare you with any player in particular, as impact players have missed time with injury. They are still a good defense though, so long as you don’t put them on the same scale as a Amherst or Trinity. This is the hardest game to predict this week. One potential difference-maker for Tufts is if they can break a long return since the Ephs have allowed two crucial returns for touchdowns. When in doubt, go with the home team.

Prediction: Williams over Tufts 22-19

NbN Last Week: 4-1
NbN on the Season: 17-3