Oh sweet lover, so nice to see you again. The transition from the gridiron to the hard court is a quick one this year, and we would be lying if we didn’t admit that we are a tad bit under-prepared at the moment. Make no mistake, that NESCAC work ethic is already in gear, and we are getting up to speed very quickly. Team previews are going to be rolling out starting tomorrow morning, and we have our biggest group of writers yet contributing on them. That large group of writers, which includes writers from Middlebury, Bowdoin, Bates, Tufts, Williams and Trinity is one reason why we are so excited for the coming season.
The other reason is the depth of quality basketball teams in the NESCAC this year. You can start with the fact that 97.7 percent of the minutes played in the NESCAC championship game between Amherst and Wesleyan were done so by players who are back this year. Both the Cardinals and Lord Jeffs return practically their entire rotations from last year, and so one might assume that it’s a foregone conclusion that those two will once again meet each other in the NESCAC Championship game.
Oh, but you would be so so wrong. While those two, as well as Trinity, have to be considered the favorites out of the gate, other potential contenders are Colby and Tufts. Behind those teams are units like Bates, Bowdoin and Middlebury that have more than enough talent to beat anybody but also have significant question marks. Conn College, Williams and Hamilton are all also potentially dangerous.
I’ll avoid doing a brief overview of every team because you will learn so much about those teams in the Previews. Instead, here are what I think the biggest storylines for NESCAC basketball are this winter, presented in no particular order.
Still love this photo from the NESCAC championship game. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)
How all that talent at Amherst works: Coach Dave Hixon has talent out of the wazzoo, and while there are obviously worse problems to have, it won’t be easy to figure out the rotation. If Amherst sticks to their rotation down the stretch last year, their backups will be PG Jayde Dawson ’18, SG Michael Riopel ’18, SF Jeff Racy ’17, PF Eric Conklin ’17, and most likely C Joe Schneider ’19. That unit could beat a lot of NESCAC schools straight up, no exaggeration. The lineup combinations are endless, and the Jeffs might spend the early parts of the season with playing Racy at power forward and having David George ’17 be the lone big man on the inside in charge of controlling the boards and protecting the rim.
The amount of points Lucas Hausman ’16 scores: The reigning NESCAC POY and D3Hoops.com Preseason All-American averaged 20.7 PPG overall and 24.7 PPG in NESCAC games, and at times it feels like he was put on the earth to put the ball through the basket in small D-III gyms. The potential problem for Hausman is that teams are going to game plan for him like crazy because of the loss of John Swords ’15 and Bryan Hurley ’15. What happens to Hausman if teams go box and one or play man but double him whenever he gets the ball? This story might not become as important until January when teams really devote time to game planning opponents.
Whether losing Hunter Sabety ’17 turns into addition by subraction: The talented big man for Tufts took his talents away from the NESCAC this summer and will be sitting a year off before playing at D-I Hofstra next year. Sabety was not healthy for much of last year anyway, and the Jumbos really only had one short stretch where they played well with him. His departure means that Tom Palleschi ’17 is the clear top dog on the roster, and the offense will flow through him. The Jumbos now need to find consistency besides Palleschi inside, but whoever plays there will not need to be an important part of the offense for the Jumbos to succeed.
The possibility Middlebury is even worse this year: This blog began as an evolution of PantherNation which focused almost exclusively on Middlebury basketball and football. Our forerunners were so accustomed to a high level of Middlebury basketball that they called their season-long documentary of the Middlebury program in the 2013-2014 season “The Road to Salem“, where the D-III Final Four happens. The basketball gods disapproved of that hubris, and the past two years have seen Middlebury fall well back into the pack with last year’s shocking miss of the playoffs the crushing final blow. This winter the Panthers return just one player who averaged double digits. The talent is there, but the Panthers need massive statistical improvements from several players to be good.
The number of impact freshmen: So much talent is back in the league this year, especially among the top teams, that freshmen might struggle to crack the rotation. Some schools like Williams and Bowdoin are relying on at least one freshmen to immediately contribute, but there are more teams that are already close to filling their rotation with just the players who are returning. I’m personally loathe to identify in the preseason what freshman are going to make a big impact because I’m not an expert at interpreting high schoolers’ tape, but a lot of freshman are entering with impressive pedigrees. We’ll see how long it takes for them to make it matter where it counts.
The upside of Trinity: Even though they lost in the NESCAC Semifinals, the Bantams still had clearly the best season of anyone last year going 9-1 in conference and being 24 seconds away from going to the NCAA Final Four. The top three scorers – Jaquann Starks ’16, Shay Ajayi ’16 and Ed Ogundeko ’17 – are all back, but the Bantams lost a good deal of depth, particularly in the front court with George Papadeas ’15 and Alex Conaway ’15 graduating. Two young front court players are going to have to become rotation players in part because Ogundeko is frequently plagued by foul trouble. The Bantams will probably play everybody close, which will make them fun to watch.
Also, our coverage will wane a little bit during the month of December. After all, not only is it non-conference games going on, but we also will have Finals to attend to. Just consider this a little forewarning. We will be full tilt January on though. Great Scott, are we excited!
Big plays, big hits, and jaw-dropping performances – We love NESCAC football. (Courtesy of Michael O’Hara/Middlebury Campus)
We’re very sad to see football season go. Covering all of the drama, success and disappointment this season, it’s felt at times like we were on the field ourselves, living through the ups and downs. On a grand scale, Amherst took a lot of the drama out of the season by so consistently dispatching its opponents, but let’s not downgrade the exceptional performances of so many individuals on every team across the league. Even amongst so many standout showings, a few deserve recognition above all else.
Offensive Player of the Year: Tufts RB Chance Brady ’17
Chance Brady ’17 (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)
Brady was on our radar coming into the year, but we had no idea he was this good. Not only did he split carries last season with Zack Trause ’15 practically 50-50, but Tufts has historically been one of the most pass-happy offenses in the NESCAC. That completely changed this season with Brady serving as a workhorse for the Jumbos. Brady had 187 carries (two behind Jabari Hurdle-Price ’17), and led all qualified running backs in yards, yards per game and yards per carry while also tallying 11 rushing scores, two shy of the Tufts single-season record.
Honorable Mention: Middlebury QB Matt Milano ’16, Middlebury WR Matt Minno ’16, Amherst QB Reece Foy ’18, Trinity QB Sonny Puzzo ’18, Colby RB Jabari Hurdle-Price ’17
Defensive Players of the Year: Wesleyan DE Jordan Stone ’17 and Bates LB Mark Upton ’17
Mark Upton ’17 (Courtesy of Bates Athletics)
Adam – Sheer production is the best way to describe Mark Upton’s career at Bates, and he gets my vote for DPOY because of his leadership on a young defense to go along with those gaudy stats. Bates lost a lot from their 2014 defense, including the majority of the linebackers who played besides him. Teams game planned towards Upton unlike before, and while he couldn’t quite match the 84 tackles he had last year, he came close. Upton finished with 71 tackles, four sacks, three forced fumbles, and an interception. He played best down the stretch averaging 9.8 tackles per game in his final five games.
Jordan Stone ’17 (Courtesy of Wesleyan University Athletics)
Joe – I went with Jordan Stone because he was a physical monster. Not only that, but Stone played alongside a bunch of freshmen on the D-line, and the Wesleyan defense as a whole was very green, so his numbers stand out that much more – and boy are they impressive. Thirty-five total tackles, 5.5 sacks and 10 tackles for loss. Ten! When thinking about these kinds of awards, my biggest question is always, Which player would it hurt the most to lose? I think this season it was Stone.
Honorable Mention: Amherst LB Evan Boynton ’17 , Middlebury DL Gil Araujo ’16, Bowdoin LB Branden Morin ’16, Middlebury CB Nate Leedy ’17, Trinity S Paul McCarthy ’16, Tufts LB Zach Thomas ’18
Kicker/Punter of the Year: Trinity K/P Kyle Pulek ’16
K/P Kyle Pulek ’16 (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)
Pulek was consistently great punting the football (15 inside the 20, including six against Middlebury alone, which was a huge difference in the Bantams winning that contest), but it was his proficiency once thrust into the kicking role that gives him the edge over Amherst’s Jackson McGonagle ’16. Last season, Trinity’s kicking faults more or less directly led to a pair of Trinity losses. This season, kicker Eric Sachse ’19 was doing a fine job before he went down with an injury. Pulek came on and looked like a seasoned vet, making 10-10 extra points and 5-8 field goals – two of those misses were blocks, and the other was from 39 yards out.
Honorable Mention: Amherst P Jackson McGonagle, Tufts K/P Willie Holmquist ’17, Hamilton P Pat Donahoe ’16
Return Man of the Year: Trinity KR/PR Darrien Myers ’17
KR/PR/WR Darrien Myers ’17 (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)
Not a ton of options on this one, and Myers is a more than deserving candidate, mostly because of his work on punt returns. He averaged 13.5 yards per return, a pretty sick number. Two of his returns went for touchdowns, and his 74-yard punt return for a touchdown against Middlebury was a huge lift in their eventual win. Myers was not as dynamic on kickoffs as he has been in the past averaging 22.3 yards per return, but he still was a clear choice for us.
Honorable Mention: Tufts KR/PR Mike Rando ’17 and Williams KR/PR Mark Pomella ’16
Rookie of the Year: Hamilton DE Tyler Hudson ’19
DE Tyler Hudson ’19 (Courtesy of Hamilton Athletics)
Hudson exploded out of the gates with as good a debut in the NESCAC as anyone has had in awhile. Against Tufts he had 15 tackles with 4.5 tackles for loss. Keep in mind that he plays defensive end! He wasn’t that productive the rest of the year, but the final stats of 47 tackles, four sacks, and 12.5 TFL (second in the NESCAC) are pretty nifty. Hudson is so good that he even was on the field for the Continentals goal line package, though he never was able to bring in a reception. Hudson will be fun to watch for the next three years.
Honorable Mention: Tufts DB Tim Preston ’19, Trinity LB Shane Libby ’19, Trinity RB Max Chipouras ’19, Bowdoin DB Cam Rondeau ’19
Coach of the Year: Tufts’ Jay Civetti
Tufts Head Coach Jay Civetti (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)
With apologies to EJ Mills who cranks out 8-0 seasons like they can be made on an assembly line, Coach Jay Civetti deserves this one. The Jumbos went 6-2 and took another big step forward as a program. This season Tufts turned into a team that ran the ball first and forced big plays on defense. That is the EXACT opposite of what this team was just two years ago. It took Civetti a little time to have the results show up on the field, but what he is building at Tufts both on and off the field is impressive, and we were impressed with how he fit his game plan to his players’ talents.
Honorable Mention: Amherst’s EJ Mills, Wesleyan’s Dan DiCenzo
Breakout Player of the Year: Amherst QB Reece Foy ’18
QB Reece Foy ’18 (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)
Our biggest worry for Amherst coming into the year was that they would be plagued by subpar QB play. Foy was not perfect this year, but he was the catalyst for the Amherst offense. He played his best football in the first half putting up more than 250 yards of total offense between running and passing in each of his first three games. He didn’t surpass that mark again the rest of the way, but he still made enough plays down the stretch of games. He ranked in the top five amongst starters for passing yards, yards per attempt, completion percentage, and touchdowns, so calling him above average is a pretty easy call.
Honorable Mention: Hamilton WR Charles Ensley ’17, Tufts LB Zach Thomas ’18, Bowdoin WR Nick Vailas ’18, Trinity LB Liam Kenneally ’18, Bates CB Trevor Lyons ’17
Most Surprising Team: Tufts
Tufts took the lead by storm this season. They are for real. (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)
Well this couldn’t have been easier. Tufts was the most surprising team a year ago, and they still managed to up their play this season. By beating one of the big dogs in Week 8, Tufts really made a statement about their ability to compete in the future. Two years removed from a 31-game losing streak, Tufts might be a title contender in 2016.
Honorable Mention: Hamilton
Best Single Unit: Amherst LBs
Thomas Kleyn ’16 (#52) and Evan Boynton ’17 (#40) led Amherst’s dominant linebacking corps. (Photo by Joe MacDonald)
Given that Amherst graduated two VERY good linebackers from the 2014 team, not many would have thought this unit would end up here. But Evan Boynton ’17, Tom Kleyn ’16, Parker Chapman ’17 and Jack Drew ’16 were phenomenal. Their individual statistics are all great of course, and you can look at them here. As a group they were great tacklers, never allowing for big plays. Unlike many linebackers in the NESCAC, this group was equally good against the run and pass, making the Amherst defense able to adjust to anything.
LB Tim Patricia ’16 (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)
Patricia gets this award not just for his performance in 2015, but for the entire body of work that is his stellar career. The California native came all the way to Vermont to play ball and made an impact right away. Patricia started 32 games in his career and amassed 289 tackles – the third-most in Middlebury history since 1994 when they started recording individual defensive statistics. It’s rare to see a player lead an entire defense from Day One and never miss a beat.
Honorable Mention: Amhest WR Devin Boehm ’17, Amherst DB Jimmy Fairfield-Sonn ’16, Bowdoin TE Bryan Porter ’18, Chance Brady, Jabari Hurdle-Price
Tufts QB Alex Snyder ’17 faced Fantasy MVP Matt Milano ’16 on Saturday, but in they fantasy world they teamed up to bring the championship to Joe’s squad. (Courtesy of the Tufts Daily)
Prior to the season beginning, we picked Middlebury as our NESCAC Champions. That turned out to be just a little bit off. However, the Vegas odds also had the Fantasy trophy coming to Middlebury, and on Saturday Joe clinched the title in commanding fashion.
A year ago, Pete Lindholm won the fantasy championship on the strength of a historical performance from one Matt Milano ’16 (I think we’ve probably mentioned him in every fantasy article this season), and this year Milano once again carried a championship squad. My team finished the season 7-1 on a seven-matchup winning streak; all other teams finished 3-5, and not even Carson’s Bantam-heavy lineup could put up a fight in the Championship. It was bitter-sweet for me to watch Alex Snyder ’17 rack up the TDs on Saturday – it resulted in a loss for Middlebury, but really sealed the deal when it came to fantasy.
Joe
Carson
Pos.
Player
Pts
Pos.
Player
Pts
QB
Matt Milano
34
QB
Sonny Puzzo
5
QB
Alex Snyder
27
QB
Jared Lebowitz
0
RB
Kenny Adinkra
15
RB
Frank Williams
2
RB
Jabari Hurdle-Price
17
RB
Max Chipouras
14
WR
Devin Boehm
6
WR
Matt Minno
27
WR
Charles Ensley
2
WR
Mark Riley
3
TE
Bryan Porter
15
TE
Rob Thoma
0
FLEX
Lou Stevens
2
FLEX
Ian Dugger
2
FLEX
LaShawn Ware
0
FLEX
Jack Cooleen
12
D/ST
Middlebury
3
D/ST
Amherst
7
K
Charlie Wall
5
K
Charlie Gordon
2
BE
Devon Carrillo
0
BE
Neil O’Connor
0
BE
Cole Freeman
5
BE
LaDarius Drew
0
BE
Jon Hurvitz
0
BE
Nick Gaynor
9
TOTAL
126
TOTAL
74
QB Reece Foy ’18 had an up-and-down season, but in terms of fantasy, he was more consistent. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)
In the consolation round, Nick continued his slide, but he had a respectable showing. After weeks of 42 and 52 points, his team was good enough to win most matchups this week, but Adam got contributions from everywhere. Bowdoin QB Tim Drakeley ’17 had far and away his best game of the season, so that was a great pickup for Nick, and Middlebury RB Diego Meritus ’19 had one of his best performances, too. In the end, though, Amherst QB Reece Foy ’18 and Bowdoin WR Nick Vailas ’18 outscored every other twosome, and at least ended Adam’s season on a high note for him.
QB Pat Dugan ’16 and OL Sean Lovett ’18 after something good happened. Clearly. (Courtesy of Josh Kuckens/Bates College)
Well, the best that can be said about this weekend’s match ups is that three of the following four games feature teams within one game of each other in the standings. I know, I’m supposed to be a salesman and get you excited for the rest of the article, but I’ve already got your click, so I really don’t care….
I do care, of course, and even though none of the game’s below will factor into the Championship race (barring the upset of the millenium – and I mean that), there’s still a lot of intrigue around these games, and it definitely means something to all of the senior playing their last game of football on Saturday.
No more clichés need be wrought about the sentimental value of this weekend’s games, so let’s get into the meat of the matter.
Four to Watch: Senior Edition
Bates Defensive Lineman Tucker Oniskey ’16
Oniskey has been possibly the Bobcats’ best lineman three years running. The big man has gone from 23 tackles and nine pass break ups in seven games in 2013 to 26 tackles and five break ups in seven games a year ago to 37 tackles and four break ups in his first seven games this year.
Oniskey’s ability to get in the face of the opposing quarterback will be important against Hamilton, which likes to air the ball out downfield. We saw last week how a good secondary can take advantage of Hamilton QB Cole Freeman ’19, who was picked off four times by Middlebury last Saturday. The Bates secondary has been exploited at times this year, although CB Trevor Lyons ’17 has had a pick-six in two straight games. If Oniskey can get pressure on Freeman, Lyons might just get his third INT TD of the season.
Williams WR Mark Pomella ’16
Pomella had been exclusively a quarterback in his first three years in Williamstown. He had hoped to be the team’s starter last season until BC-transfer Austin Lommen ’16 beat him out for the gig. Head Coach Aaron Kelton hinted in the preseason that Pomella could switch roles because of his athleticism, but it took three games for Pomella to finally make the switch. Between Weeks 3-7, Pomella has 33 catches (6.6/game) for 421 yards (84.2/game) and one TD. Pomella has been the team’s clear top option since Week 3. He’s also served as the team’s punt returner, especially with RB Connor Harris ’18 out. He will need a monster game in Week 8 to help the Ephs upset Amherst.
Colby D-Linemen Ryan Ruiz ’16 and Harry Nicholas ’16
Bowdoin’s top three running backs are out for the year, and the Polar Bears rushed for negative six yards last week. They’ve broken 63 yards rushing just once this year. By default, Bowdoin has to throw the ball. Ruiz and Nicholas have a combined eight sacks this year. Bowdoin QB Tim Drakeley ’17 is back in starting lineup, but he hasn’t really played since Week 3, which will provide Ruiz and Nicholas a chance to capitalize and have one of their best games.
Tufts RT Justin Roberts ’16 and LT Akene Farmer-Michos ’16
Justin RobertsAkene Farmer-Michos
I’m not sure about this, but I think Roberts and Farmer-Michos are the only offensive linemen we’ve ever featured as players to watch or X-factors, and now we’ve done it twice. Apologies to all the other great O-linemen out there around the league.
Roberts and Farmer-Michos are big reasons why RB Chance Brady ’17 is running his way towards history, and the Jumbos need to run well on Saturday to beat Middlebury. The Panthers have been very hit or miss against the run defensively, surrendering 301 yards on 59 carries (5.1 ypc) against Wesleyan, 190 yards on 49 (3.8 ypc) against Amherst and 204 yards on 61 carries (3.3 ypc) at Bates, while also allowing just 33 yards on 31 carries (1.1 ypc) against the vaunted Trinity attack. Inside LB Tim Patricia ’16 will have to make a lot of stops this weekend, and per usual he is leading Middlebury in tackles. If he can’t, Roberts and Farmer-Michos will be opening up some wide lanes for Brady to bounce through.
Elo Ratings
Maybe you’ve never heard of Elo Ratings. I hadn’t until very recently. But recently a little NbN fairy whispered sweet nothings in my ear, and now we have Elo Ratings. If you want the history of what Elo Ratings are, read here. If you want to know about the mainstream sports applications that inspired this fairy to do some great statistical work on NESCAC football, check out FiveThirtyEight.com. If you are averse to clinking on links that may take you to strange places, I’ll give you the rundown here.
Elo Ratings are a system that quantify the gains and losses to each team after each contest. Wins produce gains in ratings, and losses produce reductions in ratings. In our system (again, I can’t take any personal credit for this work), margins of victory compared to expected winning margin also effect the changes in Elo Ratings. At the end of each season, team ratings are regressed towards the mean, which makes sense because in college athletics there is often a lot of turnover between seasons, so teams have to prove it both on the field and in the Elo Ratings.
Our timeline currently stretches back to 2005. In our ratings, all teams begin with an “average” rating of 1500, meaning that at the beginning of our timeline, teams were very closely clustered together. I’ll spare you the math – because I don’t want my brain to start hurting – but trust me when I say that there is a way to convert each team’s Elo Rating into their probability of winning their next game, and by comparing two teams’ win probabilities and putting them into some kind of magical/mathematical cauldron, you can conjure up a spread for every game. It’s also important to note that home teams are allotted a four-point advantage throughout the spreads.
Below is a graph that depicts each team’s Elo Rating from the beginning of the 2005 season through Week 7 of the 2015 season. This should give you some idea of how each team’s stock has risen and fallen over the past decade.
NESCAC Elo Ratings 2005-2015
What’s the point of showing you this? Well, if you’re a stat nerd, the value is obvious. This is pretty cool. Secondly, though, this week we are sharing the spreads for each game in our predictions and discuss the spread a little bit. In the information you will see which team is giving points this week.
Game Previews
Bates (2-5) (-10) at Hamilton (1-6), Clinton, NY, 12:00 PM
Despite the ugly records, both of these teams are on the upswing. Bates is coming off of two straight wins and a CBB title, the program’s third in the past four years, making the 2016 class the first since 1900 to claim three outright CBB titles in its tenure. A win will also make the 2016 class 16-16, which would tie last year’s class as the winningest since 1983. Finally, Hamilton is the only program which Bates holds the series advantage over, with the Bobcats currently in the lead 19-18.
Hamilton, meanwhile, has returned to relevance this year. Not only did the Conts get their first win in over three years at Williams, but they’ve been very competitive, losing to Tufts by three in double OT, Wesleyan by five, Bowdoin by 10, Colby by five and Middlebury by five. With a lot of young players making impacts, specifically on defense and at QB Cole Freeman, there is a lot of hope for this program next year.
As for this year, though, the focus for both teams is finishing on a high note and giving its seniors a great last memory. When analyzing a Bates game, the first thing to ask for its opponent is whether they can stop the run. In Hamilton’s case, they’ve done a pretty good job of that this season. Tufts, Wesleyan and Trinity put up big rushing totals, but they also ran the ball around 50 times against Hamilton, and on the season the Continentals are allowing 3.28 yards per rush. Not exactly 1980’s Steelers, but passable, and I actually think that practicing against Hamilton’s new Wildcat read option will actually have prepared the Continentals to stop the Bates attack. If Hamilton can force QB Pat Dugan ’16 to the air, it will be a long day for Bates. No one besides Bats WR Mark Riley ’16 scares you in the passing game.
The Bobcats, meanwhile, need to step up their pass defense. Hamilton, as a team, has the highest yards per completion average. They don’t necessarily complete that many passes, though. Freeman and Chase Rosenberg ’17 have combined for a 43.9 percent completion rate. DB Brandon Williams ’17 will be on alert and trying to add to his league-best five interceptions.
The Continentals won a big game two weeks ago, and are still feeling good about themselves after taking Middlebury to the wire. They’ll be good enough to cover the spread, but the final decision goes to Bates.
Prediction: Bates 24 – Hamilton 21
Amherst (7-0) (-22.5) at Williams (2-5), Williamstown, MA, 12:00 PM
If you take a peek at the Elo Rating chart above, you might notice that Amherst is currently at the highest it’s ever been, and Williams is at the lowest. The spread of (-22.5) is actually lower than last year’s (-24), but it definitely feels like more of a lopsided matchup this year. That’s what I meant when I said it would take the upset of the millennium for the championship hunt to be impacted this weekend. Williams would have to cover a 22.5 point spread and beat Amherst in order to give Trinity a shot at sharing the title.
On paper, this game is clearly a blowout. The Jeffs have played some competitive games, but none have really ended up that close besides the 16-7 win over Trinity a week ago. The next closest margin was a nine-point win over Wesleyan in Week 5 in which Amherst needed a five-plus minute drive late in the fourth to clinch the win. The only question for Amherst is which QB Reece Foy ’18 will show up? The efficient, dual-threat Foy, or the clumsy turnover-prone Foy? He’s had five picks the last three games after having one pick in the first four. All he has to do is get the ball near his awesome receivers, including WR Jackson McGonagle ’16, who is a big play threat when Foy is able to hit him downfield, and rely on the bruising rushing attack lead by Kenny Adinkra ’16. As an entire team, Amherst is averaging 4.7 yards per rush. Enough said.
If Williams has one thing going for them, it’s experience. Five starters on offense and five on defense are all seniors, so they won’t shy away from the daunting task ahead of them. DE James Howe ’16 has had massive expectations heaped on him the past couple of seasons, but teams have been able to neutralize him much of the time by scheming for him, but he’s been productive this season with two sacks, and has opened the door for fellow D-lineman Jack Ryan ’16 to get 3.5 sacks of his own.
Despite Williams’ significant series lead (71-53-5), Amherst is expected to win its fifth straight contest against their rivals and clinch not only the NESCAC title, but also its 32nd Little Three title, which we’ve barely even talked about because it’s seemed like a formality for awhile now. And yes, I think they cover that massive spread.
Prediction: Amherst 35 – Williams 7
Colby (1-6) (-0.5) at Bowdoin (1-6), Brunswick, ME, 12:30 PM
This game is basically a pick ’em, and that’s all I can do, because I don’t know what to think about either team. For the most part, it’s been a lot of meaningless second halfs for these teams this season. Bowdoin has no running game right now, and Colby is afraid to throw the ball and might have a QB battle in camp next season.
The Mules’ rushing attack has been solid after a slow start though, thanks to RB Jabari Hurdle-Price ’17 and the heavy lifting of FB Robert Murray ’16. They just can’t do anything through the air. QB Gabe Harrington ’17 has one touchdown and 11 interceptions, and Christian Sparacio ’18 has gotten time in spurts, but he’s completed less than half of his attempts and is more like a Wildcat QB with the ability to throw right now. Defensively, LB Stephen O’Grady ’16 has been a workhorse, leading the team in tackles.
It’s going to be a challenge for Tim Drakeley to be effective in the passing game for Bowdoin with no rushing threat. He’ll be looking to find WR Dan Barone ’16 early and often, and there will be a lot of pressure on All-NESCAC C Matt Netto ’16 and his squad to keep Drakeley upright. On the defense, it will have to be a big day for LB Branden Morin ’16 and companion LB Phillipe Archambault ’19, who’s stepped right in and tallied 49 tackles in six games.
It’s going to be low-scoring, with neither team able to move the ball quickly. With that being the case, I have to tip the scales in favor of Colby, who will be able to move the ball on the ground and get after the passer on third and longs. It’s going to be a sad Senior Day in Brunswick.
Prediction: Colby 23 – Bowdoin 17
Middlebury (5-2) (-6) at Tufts (5-2), Medford, MA, 12:30 PM
LB Tim Patricia ’16 is the heart of the Panthers defense. (Courtesy of Brad Banky)
When was the last time this game was relevant? Probably 2008, when the Panthers beat Tufts 38-24 to finish 5-3, ahead of the 4-4 Jumbos. Tufts hasn’t beaten Middlebury since Nov. 10, 2001. That’s 5,116 days. However, for the first time in a long time, Tufts and Middlebury come into the game with the same record, and in all honesty, I’m not sure Middlebury deserves to be favored in this game.
We’ve talked a lot about the injuries to the Panthers, and that is a big reason why they’ve played some close games recently and I’m feeling like Tufts can pull this off. Early in the week, though, Head Coach Bob Ritter was hopeful that some of his offensive linemen would be healthy by Saturday, which was probably directed at C James Wang ’16, though Ritter didn’t say for sure. Wang’s been dealing with a lingering leg injury all season, which is pretty much par for the Panthers’ course.
I still think the Middlebury passing attack will be productive. In the finale of two brilliant careers for QB Matt Milano ’16 and WR Matt Minno ’16, don’t be surprised to see those two connect early and often. Very often. Minno is chasing history, needing two touchdowns to become the all-time TD reception leader in Middlebury history and 40 yards to reach second in receiving yards for a career. Those two milestones are pretty much a lock. Elsewhere, TE-turned-slot receiver Trevor Miletich ’16 should have a big game, too. When he’s been healthy this season he’s been a favorite target for Milano.
I’ve already discussed the need for Tufts to run the football, but will they be able to move the pigskin through the air? If so, they’ll need to attack the corner opposite boundary CB Nate Leedy ’17. PSA to NESCAC teams: Don’t throw at this kid. Leedy picked off two balls a week ago, and if every team challenged him like Hamilton did he’d have two picks per game. He is also probably the hardest hitter on the Panther defense. Sometimes his shoulder-first launches result in missed tackles because he doesn’t wrap up, but it actually happens less than you’d think. When he connects, the ball carrier goes down. Hard. So, if Tufts QB Alex Snyder ’17 is smart, he’ll try the other side of the field, putting pressure on CB Andrew McGrath ’18 if he’s healthy, but more likely CB Matt Daniel ’19. Safety Dan Pierce ’16 will be a huge factor in plugging up the run, as well.
Maybe it’s just too hard to pick against my team in the last game of my classmates’ careers, or maybe I’m jaded because I’ve watched the Panthers trash Tufts for the last three seasons, but in either case, I’m taking Middlebury even though they’re (-6). There are a lot of Midd haters out there right now because they’ve played some close games against teams that they “should” have blown out. But they’ve still won those games. And that kind of resiliency and winning attitude will play the difference in this one-touchdown game.
Matt Minno ’16 has his eyes on the end zone and the record books this Saturday at Tufts. (Courtesy of Michael Borenstein/Middlebury Campus)
“Stats are pain, Highness. Anyone who says differently is selling something.”
Okay, maybe that’s not exactly what Westley said in Princess Bride, but it’s basically what he meant. Of course, we tend to disagree with the above here at Nothing But NESCAC … But then again, we’re the ones selling the stats most of the time. Whether they’re crucial to the outcome of a game, only tangentially related, or just downright interesting, there’s often a story to be found behind cold, hard numbers. So without further ado, here are 10 quick figures to keep you up to date with this week’s games.
1. Amherst nears perfection — again.
Three PERFECT SEASONS in the past six years.
If an 18-game win streak dating back to 2013 isn’t enough to convince you of Amherst’s NESCAC dominance, consider this: they’ve had more perfect seasons over the last six years (2014, 2011, 2009) than five NESCAC teams — Bates, Bowdoin, Colby, Hamilton and Tufts — have had winning seasons (Tufts is 5-2 this year; Bates went 5-3 in 2012). The only roadblock standing between the Lord Jeffs and another 8-0 season is Williams, who sits at 2-5, hasn’t broken the .500 mark since 2011, and hasn’t beaten Amherst at Williamstown since 2007. Barring a massive upset, Amherst makes it four perfect seasons in the past seven years this Saturday. But that’s not the only history that’ll be made this weekend, because…
2. Williams vs. Amherst goes way, way back.
Saturday marks the 130th matchup between Williams and Amherst.
Dubbed “The Biggest Little Game in America” by people who come up with these sorts of names, the yearly matchup between the Ephs and the Lord Jeffs has more than a little bit of history behind it. The two teams first faced each other in 1884. You know what else happened in 1884? Stanford University was founded, Huckleberry Finn floated down the Mississippi River, and the cornerstone for the Statue of Liberty was laid. That’s right. This game has been played for longer than the sweet, sweet torch of Lady Liberty has blazed over the New York harbor. Regardless of whoever might win or lose, that’s kind of awesome.
3. Some dude named Brady is chasing history.
Head Coach Jay Civetti and RB Chance Brady ’17 cheesing after Brady receives is NEFW Gold Helmet award. (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)
Tufts’ RB Chance Brady ’17 comes into this week with 11 rushing TDs, two away from the Tufts single-season record.
In 1988, Paul Dresens ’89 punched in 13 touchdowns on the ground for the Jumbos, probably thinking he was a pretty big deal (and rightfully so). Now, running back Chance Brady will try to break that record against Middlebury on Saturday. It’s definitely within reach. He’s already had two or more touchdowns in four games this season, all Tufts wins. On the other hand, Middlebury might not make it so easy; they have yet to allow a multi-TD game to a single running back this year. Then again, Wesleyan, Amherst and Williams all rushed for multiple touchdowns on the Panthers this year, only with different players scoring each one. Since Brady has all but one of the Jumbos’ rushing TDs this year, things should certainly be interesting. But he’s not the only player trying to set records in Boston this weekend…
4. Minno on the hunt.
Middlebury WR Matthew Minno ’16 is poised to set the school record for career receiving TDs (29) and move into second all-time in receiving yards (1974).
Despite missing a game due to injury, Minno has still put up huge numbers for the Panthers this season, leading the NESCAC in receiving yards (661) and touchdowns (eight). Now, he’s in as good as a position as any to carve himself a nice little spot in the history books. At 1934 yards on the season, he needs 41 more yards to pass Tom Cleaver ’04 and move into second for his career; since he hasn’t gone for fewer than 50 all season, we like his chances. Even more exciting, scoring one touchdown would give him the 29th of his career and tie him with Zach Driscoll ’13 for most all-time. One more, and the record would be his; with three multi-TD games already this year, he’s more than capable.
5.It’s a good thing they already locked up a winning season…
Over the last 13 years, Tufts is 0-13 against Middlebury.
Last week was a big one for the surging Jumbos, who secured their first winning season since 2007 with a win last weekend over Colby. However, history won’t be on their side this weekend, as they haven’t taken a win from the Panthers since 2001. Not a great precedent. That being said, the Jumbos are chasing their sixth win this season on Saturday. The last time they had six wins in a season? 2001. Maybe they should bump some Dre in the locker room before the game for good luck.
6. In case you didn’t know, Trinity really, really likes defense…
In every win this season, Trinity has forced at least two turnovers and recorded at least one sack.
Okay, I know what you’re thinking. Trinity is 6-1. They’ve only lost one game. As in, you literally could’ve picked any statistic from the game against Amherst and used it here. Every game where their offense totals 314 yards, they lose. Every game where they make exactly 60 tackles, they lose. Every game where the number of penalty yards ends in a digit other than 5 or 0, they lose. But that’s not the point. What I’m getting at: Trinity lives and dies by their defense. In the game against Amherst, where they only had one interception and no sacks, they put up one touchdown. Their offensive output was its worst all season by 17 points. And here’s the kicker — they absolutely dominated time of possession, holding onto the ball for 38:11 minutes out of 60. Compare that to their two shutouts this season, against Colby and Williams, in which they held the ball for less time than their opponents (29:10 and 29:17, respectively). The Bantams have a relatively simple formula for success: use turnovers or sacks to get good field position, score quick touchdowns to keep the offense fresh, repeat. If they can’t do that against Wesleyan this weekend, they might run into trouble.
7. And Wesleyan really, really ought to hold onto the ball.
When they fumble two or more times, Wesleyan is 1-2 this season. When they keep the total under that, they’re 4-0.
Wesleyan’s success — especially against Trinity — is going to depend on their ability to limit costly turnovers. The above numbers aren’t an aberration; in the games with two or more fumbles, their point differential is -9 (-3 points/game). When they have one or fewer? They’ve outscored their opponents by a collective 39 points (+9.75 points/game). That’s almost a 13-point swing. You know what else is about 13 points? Two touchdowns (with a missed extra point, since this is the NESCAC). That’s one touchdown that the Cardinals didn’t score when they turned the ball over and one that their opponents did. Obviously, figuring out how to predict point totals isn’t actually that simple. But figuring out that fumbles are bad is.
8. If you’re looking for a shootout, don’t go to Maine.
Bowdoin hasn’t won the outright CBB title since 2010, but here’s a reminder of how nice it would look next to that black helmet. (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)
Bowdoin has topped two touchdowns three times this season. Colby has only done it twice.
When these two teams face off on Saturday, spectators should settle in for a fairly low-scoring affair. After all, over their last four matchups, Bowdoin and Colby have only broken the two-touchdown plateau once, in 2013. Those games went as follows, starting with the most recent: 14-7 Colby, 32-22 Bowdoin, 17-0 Colby, 20-10 Bowdoin. For those of you that really like patterns, the home team has won every one of those showdowns. If we put two and two together, Bowdoin should win in Brunswick on Saturday, 14-10. You heard it here first.
9. But then again, there’s nothing like an old-fashioned shutout.
With their 31-0 shutout of Bowdoin this last week, Bates blanked a team for the first time since 2002.
To even the casual observer, the Bates option offense was firing on all cylinders against Bowdoin last Saturday. QB Patrick Dugan ’16 had himself a day, racking up 138 yards on the ground on top of 114 passing, and scoring a touchdown on the ground as well as in the air. The offense moved the ball with ease, averaging 4.9 yards per play; the defense held Bowdoin to an average of 2.6 per attempt, including -6 yards rushing en route to their first shutout in 13 years. Guess whom that shutout in 2002 came against? This week’s opponent — Hamilton. The offensive numbers were nearly identical, too, in the two Bates shutouts: 280 yards rushing in 2002 to this year’s 266, and 130 yards passing to 114 last weekend. That being said…
10. Don’t sleep on the Continentals just yet.
Only two of Hamilton’s losses have been by more than five points this season.
Quick, honest reality check here: the Continentals have had a rough time of it over the past few years. Their collective record over the last four seasons is 2-29 (.068). But despite that poor record, Hamilton has undeniably been getting more competitive over the last three years. In 2014, they only came within seven points of beating their opponent once; in 2013, they lost every game except one by 16 points or more. Yet here in 2015, they opened the season by taking a strong Tufts team to overtime (only losing by a field goal) and played both Wesleyan and Middlebury within five points. All three of those teams are now 5-2. Once the team figures out how to close out games, they could surprise a lot of folks.
SS Jimmy Fairfield-Sonn ’16 hauls in one of his two INTs of the day as Amherst pulled away in the NESCAC Championship race. (Courtesy of Greg Sullivan)
The Lord Jeffs enjoyed (proverbial) champagne showers following their victory over the Bantams. It will likely be their sixth NESCAC title since 2000, sharing the reigns with Trinity on the modern-era All-Time Championships list. There was no better way for the 2016 class to go out on Senior Day than by earning their third consecutive ring. Besides Amherst, the rest of the NESCAC has an opportunity to move up the ladder as the final week is filled with exciting rivalry games dating back to the 1800s. Should be a beautiful week of football, and it will be thrilling to see where teams end up.
1. Amherst Lord Jeffs (7-0; Last Week: 1)
Amherst essentially walked away with their third consecutive NESCAC title Saturday as they took down Trinity. The Lord Jeffs took advantage of Trinity’s mistakes, and that seemed to be the biggest difference between these two teams Saturday. They controlled the second half, running all over the Bantams, with Reece Foy ’18, Kenny Adinkra ’16, Nick Kelly ’17, Jack Hickey ’19, and Jackson McGonagle ’16 all averaging at least 3.6 yards per carry. Amherst SS Jimmy Fairfield-Sonn ’16 went out with a bang with two interceptions and a crucial blocked field goal to end the first half. Amherst will wrap up their season against the Ephs in Williamstown, Mass for the Biggest Little Game In America — a game that dates back to 1884, and is the most-played Division-III game in the country.
Trinity Bantams (6-1; Last Week: 2)
Despite analyst Joe MacDonald’s bold prediction of a Bantam victory, Trinity was unable to get it done down the stretch. Amherst did a good job depriving kick and punt returner Darrien Myers ’17 in the forms of pooching and squibbing, which put a lot of pressure on the offense to move the ball up the field. The Trinity faithful felt some home cooking involved between a questionable touchdown catch and the Bantams racking up 12 penalties resulting in 98 yards opposed to Amherst’s three penalties.
WR Jackson McGonagle ’16 incredibly hauled in this twisting grab to help dispatch the Bantams. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)
Despite edging Amherst’s 247 offensive yards with 314 of their own and possessing the ball for 38 minutes of the game, Trinity had too many blunders. A fatal sideline pass intercepted at the Trinity 37 yardline resulted in Amherst taking the lead and never looking back. Trinity’s Max Chipouras ’19, Sonny Puzzo ’18, and Myers averaged 3.8 yards per rush, but the Amherst running game was even more efficient. Trinity still has life to live as they take on long-time rivals Wesleyan in the homecoming game that will be featured on CPTV Sports.
3. Middlebury (5-2; Last Week: 3)
Middlebury took care of business Saturday against Hamilton, but their stock dropped with such a tight game. They were able to keep their spot at No. 3 for Week 7, but that could change as they take on the Jumbos this weekend.
Middlebury trailed late in the first half, when QB Matt Milano ’16 and WR Matt Minno ’16 connected to even the score pending a QB Jared Lebowitz ’18 two-point conversion rush. Milano threw for 273 yards and three touchdowns with one pick, while Diego Meritus ’19 picked up 75 of the Panthers’ 89 rushing yards. Minno leaped out of the water catching a season-high three touchdowns on six catches for 171 yards. Naples native and CB Nate Leedy ’17 picked off Hamilton’s Cole Freeman ’19 twice. S Kevin Hopsticker ’18 also added an interception and 10 tackles in what was probably his best game as a Panther.
4. Tufts (5-2; Last Week: 5)
Tufts outscored Colby 28-10, and QB Alex Snyder ’17 only passed 13 times for one touchdown caught by WR Mike Miller ’18. Chance Brady ’17 averaged 7.9 yards on 27 attempts scoring two touchdowns. His longest run was 49 yards. Brady also was the Jumbos’ leading receiver, with two catches for 49 yards, en route to being named NESCAC Offensive POTW and the second NESCAC player this season to be dubbed the New England Football Writers’ Gold Helmet winner. Colby was able to move the ball on Tufts, nearly gaining more offensive yards than the Jumbos. Tufts return man Mike Rando ’17 ran one kick back 85 yards for a touchdown, and he took a second one back for 37 yards. The Jumbos’ Zach Thomas ’18 racked up 3.5 sacks. It is tough to say how Tufts will fair with Middlebury next week; I could see either team taking that game. A Tufts upset could stir up rival tensions between the two foes.
5. Wesleyan (5-2; Last Week: 4)
Wesleyan will have a chance to move up the ranks next week when they take on Trinity for the rivalry game that dates back to 1885. The Cardinals took on Williams Saturday in a convincing win. QB Mark Piccirillo ’19 stepped up and completed 11-14 passes with one touchdown for 105 yards, and he continues to show off his accurate arm. It was just the freshman’s second game playing a pivotal role, as Gernald Hawkins ’18 threw just 12 times and only completing six. They will likely continue to keep with their dual quarterback threat to keep the Bantams off balance, so it will be interesting to see how Trinity is able to respond. S Justin Sanchez ’17 picked a ball off and forced a fumble with six tackles. K Ike Fuchs’17 missed a short field goal wide right, and also missed an extra-point that was pushed back five yards due to a penalty, and things have just not been right with the formerly reliable Fuchs. If Wesleyan is going to win next week, they will probably need Fuchs at his best.
6. Hamilton (1-6; Last Week: 8)
The Continentals gave Middlebury a run for their money, something they have done to every team besides Trinity this year. They proved they can hang with the big dogs which has pushed them up to the No. 6 spot, a big jump from where they began the season. Yes, QB Cole Freeman threw four interceptions, but none of them resulted in a Panther score, and it seems like Coach Dave Murray is fine with Freeman taking shots down field as part of his learning process. The Continental defense did a good job containing the run game, keeping Middlebury to 2.6 yards per rush, but Matt Milano’s 14 completions were too deadly. RB LaShawn Ware ’18 played well – especially in the first quarter – picking up 77 yards on 21 carries, and WR Charles Ensley ’17 caught a 78-yard touchdown pass. Hamilton did not lay down easy as they posted a safety in the fourth quarter on Sean Tolton’s ’19 blocked punt. The whole league has been impressed with the Continentals this year, and is excited as it raises the competition. Hamilton has a chance to earn their second win of the season as they take on a rolling Bates.
7. Bates (2-5; Last Week: 6)
Slotback Tyler Janssen ’17 lays a tender kiss on the CBB trophy. (Courtesy of Phyllis Graber Jensen/Bates College)
CBB Champions. Bates shellacked Bowdoin, shutting them out 31-0, waltzing their way to a killer recruiting tool in the CBB —Bates has won three of the last four CBB Titles. The Bobcats are on the cusp of – in the words of the great Lou Brown – a winning streak.
They have a chance to end on a high note at Hamilton and make up for all those closes losses earlier this year. The Bobcats outplayed Bowdoin last week in all facets, tackling the Polar Bears for a loss five times for 29 yards including three sacks. CB Trevor Lyons ’17 had a pick-six that he took 50 yards all the way back. QB Pat Dugan ’16 put on a show, running and throwing for a touchdown as he piled up 252 of Bates’ total 380 offensive yards. Another big win will vault the Bobcats back over the Continentals in the ranks.
8. Williams (2-5; Last Week: 9)
After a scoreless first 23 minutes, the Ephs let up a 21-yard touchdown pass to Wesleyan’s Eric Meyreles ’18. Williams’ lone touchdown came on a last minute, three-yard pass by Austin Lommen ’16, who threw for 150 yards including an interception. RB Noah Sorrento ’19 got his first crack as the starter and ran for 105 yards on 21 carries, including one for 45 yards. This weekend’s rivalry game will not have as much hype as most years due to the fact that Amherst is a heavy, heavy favorite. Williams moves up from last week, like Colby, more by virtue of the lackluster performance that Bowdoin put on last weekend.
9. Colby (1-6; Last Week: 10)
Colby lost to the better team Saturday when they hosted Tufts. Colby’s QB Gabe Harrington ’17 continued to struggle, throwing two interceptions while completing 53 percent of his passes. RB Jabari Hurdle-Price ’17 got his touches and scored a touchdown on 21 attempts, though only averaging 2.1 yards per carry. John Baron ’18 kicked a 37-yard field goal and an extra point. Despite a crooked score, Colby compiled 320 yards compared to Tufts’ 325.
The consolation game of the CBB will happen this week, and it is a chance for each Colby and Bowdoin to rid themselves of the shame of being part of a one-win program.
10. Bowdoin (1-6; Last Week: 7)
Not to take away from Bates, but that game shouldn’t have gotten out of hand like it did. It was a sad sight to see for Polar Bear fans Saturday as they rushed for negative six yards. Negative six. When they did have the ball in their hands, they fumbled three times, only making it into Bobcat territory four times. The Polar Bears were closest to a score when QB Noah Nelson ’19 threw an interception from the Bates 25-yardline. Bowdoin let Bates run right over them, as they let up 12 rushing first downs. Bowdoin will take on Colby for the runner-up of the CBB this weekend.
Friend or foe, you have to appreciate that Youngman Field skyline. It never gets old. (Photo by Joe MacDonald)
Saturday represented the last home Middlebury football game that I will watch as a student at this College. It was probably the 10th or so such game that I’ve seen (I know I missed one this year and I probably missed one in my first two years, and I missed them all when I was off campus as a junior) and I’ve gone through a transformation with regards to my feelings towards football at Middlebury.
It started out as resentment because I was cut quicker than you can say “Good bye” when I tried out as a freshman (fairly, I should add). It turned into anger that first year and sadness as the friends I made during preseason turned into strangers that I barely said hello to walking around campus. It became jealousy the next year as I watched the football team take home a shared NESCAC title. As we started up Nothing but NESCAC in the spring of my sophomore season, and as I began to mature (though not that much), my feelings became more analytical and critical, and I started keeping my ear to the ground as any good journalist ought to do. However, being on the other side of the planet in Australia during the 2014 season, I was so far removed from the actual games that my feelings were fairly indifferent. Then I returned to campus this fall and everything felt different. Not only were the players aware of our writing here on this blog, which I thought was very cool, but I also found myself deeply invested in the team for the first time since Coach Ritter laid the axe on me in The Grille freshman year. The boys that I had tried out alongside and felt comparable to three years ago have become grown men – at least physically (we’re all still college kids at some level) – and color me proud of the way these guys have played – any disappointment over the 5-2 record as we stand today be damned – and the way they’ve grown up.
There are a lot of reasons not to play football in college, especially at the D-III level. There is no scholarship money, no fans watching on TV, no promise of a future career. And then there are the reasons to play. A cool, autumn day, just your closest friends and your parents (and maybe your dog) in the stands, the smell of the charcoal grill wafting over from the now deserted tailgate, and a tight-knit group of brothers laying their bodies on the line just because they love to play the game.
Forgive the soliloquy, and allow me to proceed to the usual stock report.
Stock Up
Hamilton Line Play
Both sides of the ball for Hamilton were impressive against Middlebury. In the first quarter alone LaShawn Ware ’18 had 74 yards rushing on 12 carries. The Continentals defensive line had three sacks and put heavy pressure on all of the Middlebury quarterbacks all day long while also keeping the Panthers to 2.6 yards per rush. Now, it’s all relative of course. Ware ended up with 77 yards on 21 carries (you can do the math but that’s only three more yards on quite a few carries after the first quarter), and nobody else could get going running the ball, either. I thought the O-line did a good job of protecting Cole Freeman ’19, though. Middlebury racked up three sacks of its own, but otherwise Freeman had enough time to take a lot of shots deep down the field. That didn’t really pay off, as Freeman threw four picks (right after we had highlighted how well he had been taking care of the football), but nonetheless you love the gutsy calls from an up-and-coming team that just got its first win in a long time, and Freeman couldn’t have thrown those balls without time to step up.
Wesleyan QB Mark Piccirillo ’19
With starting QB Gernald Hawkins ’18 battling with an injury the past two weeks, Piccirillo has started to weasel his way into the lineup. Who knows how much of this timeshare is a result of the ailment to Hawkins and how much is a result of their respective plays. Hawkins is very physically gifted, but he hasn’t completed a high percentage of his passes and Coach Dan DiCenzo appears to be shying away from letting him throw the ball. Hawkins had only 13 attempts in Week 6 and 12 this past week, but he ran the ball 12 times against Williams. Meanwhile, Piccirillo has gone 27-35 (77.1 percent) for 269 yards, one touchdown and no picks the past two weeks, while also rushing for 54 yards on 15 attempts. This looks like a situation that will provide a great QB battle in camp next year.
Bates CB Trevor Lyons ’17
The first five weeks of the season were a struggle for the Bobcats, but it’s all worth it because Bates took home the CBB title yet again by beating up the Polar Bears 31-0 on Saturday. Lyons had maybe his best two games of the season the past two weeks, taking back a pick six in each game and breaking up two passes against Bowdoin. Against Colby, Lyons interception return for a TD came in the third quarter with Bates down 3-0. The Bobcats went on to win 10-9. Last week Lyons once again returned an interception early in the third quarter, this time 50 yards for a score that put the game out of reach. Lyons also does double duty as the team’s punt returner.
Colby WR Sebastian Ferrell ’19
In case you couldn’t tell from the intro to today’s stock report, I’m waxing a bit nostalgic and so I decided to look on the bright side of things and go for an extra stock up and one less stock down. So this brings us to first-year wideout Sebastian Ferrell, who had just four career catches before breaking out with eight grabs and 110 yards in a loss to Tufts. With that performance, Ferrell leapt to fourth on the Mules with 12 receptions on the season. His breakout has coincided with a reduced role for Mbasa Mayikana ’18. It will be interesting to see if that trend continues in Week 8.
Stock Down
Williams’ Resolve
I’m not at Williams, I don’t know this for a fact, and I haven’t heard this from any players – but from the outside it looks like this team is falling apart. This is how the last four weeks have gone for Williams: Week 4, outscored 27-7 in the second half at Middlebury in a 36-14 loss; Week 5, go down 13-0 and then 30-7 in an eventual 30-15 loss at home against Tufts; Week 6, get beat by Hamilton, a team that hadn’t won in three years, hadn’t beaten Williams in 19 years and hadn’t won in Williamstown in 29 years; Week 7, narrowly avoid a shutout by scoring a touchdown with 1:11 left in the game in a 27-7 loss to Wesleyan. We’ll leave it at that.
Parity
Sorry, folks, but the cat’s out of the bag. Amherst is the 2015 NESCAC Football Champion, barring a massive upset at the hands of Williams this week and a Trinity victory. It’s a shame that there’s no playoff in the NESCAC and that teams are not eligible for the D-III playoffs. There’s no point in whining about the structure of the NESCAC playoff system, though, so instead we’ll just whine about the fact that the league is severely lacking parity these days. Dating back to 2011, Amherst, Trinity, Middlebury and Wesleyan are a combined 124-32 (79.5 percent). The only other teams to have a winning season are Williams in 2011 (5-3), Bates in 2012 (5-3) and Tufts this year (5-2).
Bates and Bowdoin always delivers a hard-fought affair. (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)
Yes, the game between Trinity and Amherst is very important. Yada, yada, yada. Joe has you covered there if you want to read about that. Spoiler alert, it’s a bold prediction. Elsewhere, it’s rivalry season in the NESCAC with the second leg of the CBB and Little Three taking place this weekend. Bowdoin makes the quick jaunt up to Lewiston to face off against Bates who just won the first leg of the CBB against Colby, and Williams visits Wesleyan in the Little Three. For the Ephs, this is the first of back-to-back games against Wesleyan and Amherst, and the final two weeks might be the last two for Coach Aaron Kelton. Since going to 2-1, Williams has lost three in a row with last week’s loss to Hamilton a particularly stinging loss because it broke the long losing streak for the Continentals. Last year the Ephs managed just 123 yards of offense and no points in a 22-0 loss that would have been even more lopsided if Wesleyan hadn’t had to kick five short field goals. Unless the loss last week galvanized the team, expect this year’s result to be similar.
Meanwhile Bates can complete the salvaging of their year if they beat Bowdoin on Saturday. After going 13-11 over the past three seasons, the Bobcats have lost a good deal of close games and are just 1-5. A win over Bowdoin seals the fifth consecutive year of the CBB for Bates and means the graduating Bobcats will have never lost to the Polar Bears. Bates certainly isn’t happy to have the record they do, but their final two games against Bowdoin and Hamilton are both winnable ones. If they can finish at 3-5 with a three-game winning streak and an uncontested CBB title, things would look drastically different than they did just a week ago. However, that is still a ways away.
Four to Watch
Running Back Jabari Hurdle-Price ’17 (Colby): Despite a disappointing season for the Mules overall, Hurdle-Price has been fabulous. A slow start to this season is long in the past as he has had four straight games of over 100 yards rushing, including 202 yard, two TD performance against Wesleyan in Week 3 that served as the tone setter. What has really made him so valuable though is his receiving as he has 19 receptions for 146 yards. Then you add in his kickoff returns and in total you get the NESCAC leader for all-purpose yards at 171.7 per game, well above the next highest total of 144.7 from Darrien Myers ’17. The Mules are a heavy underdog at home against Tufts, but regardless of what happens, Hurdle-Price is going to get his yards.
Linebacker Branden Morin ’16 (Bowdoin): After having just two tackles in the season opener, Morin has been a tackling machine averaging 10.8 per game, and he now leads the league. Last week he had a sack to go along with his 11 tackles. The Bowdoin defense has been bad overall against the run, allowing 209.5 yards per game, 54.2 more yards per game than anybody else. That stat is probably the biggest reason why Bates is feeling confident entering tomorrow. Morin has to be able to make another dozen or so tackles in order to keep Bates from marching up and down the field all day long. Some of the other linebackers for Bowdoin are very inexperienced and have not played against Bates, and the coaching staff is relying on him to be a steadying force up front.
Defensive End Jordan Stone ’17 (Wesleyan): It’s a given that Williams is going to throw all the time, and that is exactly what Stone wants to hear. He leads the Cardinals with 5.5 sacks, and he has three in the past two weeks. Williams has been decent at keeping QB Austin Lommen ’16 upright, but Stone will be one of their hardest challenges yet. The Ephs are unlikely to get much going on the ground which will allow Stone to pin his ears back and rush the passer. Stone isn’t quite a sack specialist as he is important for Wesleyan’s run defense also, but he is definitely one of the best pass rushers in the league.
Wide Receiver Charles Ensley ’17 (Hamilton): My goodness, Ensley has turned on the jets recently. His statistics from the past three games: 19 receptions for 376 yards and four touchdowns. Those numbers coincide with Cole Freeman ’18 becoming the starting QB midway through the game against Bowdoin. Ensley was in this spot two weeks ago, but I don’t feel bad putting him here again because of how well he has done. Freeman also deserves credit for his job coming in after starting the season as the third string QB. Freeman only has one pick in 124 pass attempts. If Hamilton wants to get their second straight win, Ensley must have a big day against the Middlebury secondary.
Patrick Williams (#7) wants to give Tufts their fifth win this weekend. (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)
Game Previews
Hamilton (1-5) at Middlebury (4-2): 12:30 PM
The Continentals got on the right side of the win-loss column last week in part by taking advantage of mistakes by Williams. They also were able to run the ball more effectively than usual as they broke 100 yards rushing for the first time all year. They still averaged just 2.9 yards per carry (amazingly, Hamilton has not had a game this year where they average at least 3.0 yards per carry). They will have a harder time on the ground against the Middlebury run defense led by Tim Patricia ’16 and, if he’s active, Addison Pierce ’17. Even if Pierce is out, Aaron Slodowitz ’18 is more than capable fill-in.
One advantage for the Continentals is how banged up Middlebury is at receiver. Of course, Matt Minno ’16 is still relatively healthy which should cause problems. Every team has injuries, especially at this point of the season, and they really hurt when grouped together in a particular position group. This will be closer than the 37-9 blowout last season, but it won’t be that close. The only worry I have for Middlebury is that they come out flat after last week’s physical loss.
Prediction: Middlebury over Hamilton 26-13
Bowdoin (1-5) at Bates (1-5): 12:30 PM
I already talked about the stakes for Bates. The win against Colby was a huge confidence booster, but they can’t be that confident as the offense took a huge step backwards after the big day they had two weeks ago against Middlebury. Passing for only 43 yards against Colby is not going to cut it versus a Bowdoin team that is weak against the pass. The matchup of corner Jibrail Coy ’16 vs. wide receiver Mark Riley ’16 will be a fun one to keep an eye on. The Bobcats are dealing with injuries to some of their skill players which has hurt them.
Speaking of injuries, Bowdoin will not have its top two running backs, Tyler Grant ’17 or Andrew Tichy ’19 tomorrow. Given how much they have been throwing the ball, one wouldn’t expect that to be too big of an issue. The team that scores first will put a lot of pressure on their opponent as this could be another low-scoring CBB affair.
Prediction: Bowdoin over Bates 17-13
Tufts (4-2) at Colby (1-5): 1:00 PM
So the Jumbos didn’t managed to put much of a scare into Amherst last weekend. It happens. Running against Amherst was never going to be easy, and allowing a defensive touchdown to the Jeffs made things pretty much impossible. The Jumbos will have to go to the air in order to beat Colby because the Mules strength of defense is the defensive line. This is the game that Tufts really wants in order to get to five wins.
The Mules are in a little bit of disarray on offense as Christian Sparacio ’18 got significant playing time at quarterback against Bates and scored the Mules’ one touchdown. Gabe Harrington ’17 had looked better in the previous two weeks, but he regressed back to his early season form vs. the Bobcats. The offense has really been the downfall of Colby this year, and there is no magic formula in Week 7.
Prediction: Tufts over Colby 24-17
Williams (2-4) at Wesleyan (4-2): 1:00 PM
As mentioned above, Hamilton was able to run against the Ephs, and that does not bode well at all for this weekend. Watching Wesleyan last week, I thought that the Cardinals were trying to get too fancy on offense instead of relying on that bulldozing offensive line to get easy yards on the ground. Against Williams, Wesleyan is probably going to keep things pretty simple for whomever ends up starting at QB, Gernald Hawkins ’18 or Mark Piccirillo ’19. The Cardinals still feel like they have plenty to play for in the last two weeks even if they are out of the conference race.
I don’t know what to expect from Williams. They have in the past shown up in rivalry games more so than other games. The Ephs have almost completely given up on running the ball, and the defense is soft against the run. On paper Wesleyan should win this game relatively easily.
The Hamilton Continentals were able to drag down the Ephs in Williamstown for the first time in nearly four decades. (Courtesy of Williams College Athletics)
Saturday’s games were fuming with excitement across the NESCAC, from the Hamilton Continentals earning their first win in over three years to Bates getting their first win of the season in triumphant fashion. With just two games left to play the standings are wide open throughout most of the league. Bates, Bowdoin, Colby, and Hamilton are all tied for last place with one win a piece, then there is Williams with two wins trailing Middlebury, Tufts, and Wesleyan, who share third place with four wins each. It will be a Championship atmosphere (and literally, the de facto championship) this weekend for the Lord Jeffs and the Bantams as Amherst hosts Trinity. That’s where they are in the official standings, but where are they in the all important Power Rankings?
1. Amherst Lord Jeffs (6-0; Last Week: 1)
Coming off a strong win against Tufts, the Amherst team looked good as a whole. The defense compiled eight points with a pick six and a safety; Charlie Wall ’17 connected on his only field goal attempt, making him 7-8 on the year and 21-23 on extra points; and they ran for three touchdowns going on to beat the Jumbos 32-7. The one man who seemed to struggle was Reece Foy ’18, who threw for 170 yards while connecting on 18 of 27 passes including an interception. The past two games he has been inconsistent, and don’t expect the Trinity defense to be any easier a task for him. With that being said the Amherst defense was stellar holding Tufts to 161 offensive yards, and just 19 rushing yards. An Amherst win this weekend would crown them NESCAC Champions and they would tie Trinity for the modern era NESCAC Championships record with six.
2. Trinity Bantams (6-0; Last Week: 2)
Still undefeated, the Bantams have survived two scares against top ranked teams. This Halloween, the Trinity defense was Superman and picked up Sonny Puzzo ’18 and a struggling running game as they took down Middlebury in a late game comeback. Trailing by a point with just over four minutes to go, Trinity’s Paul McCarthy ’16 recovered a fumble forced by Lyle Baker ’16, which led to a Max Chipouras ’19 touchdown with under three minutes to play. Then interceptions in Trinity territory by Spencer Donahue ’17 and a picks-six from Archi Jerome ’17 put the nail in the Panthers’ coffin. Trinity has their biggest test of the season on Saturday, and Puzzo and the running game must be efficient. With the way things looked against Middlebury, the Bantams are in rough shape, but if Trinity can find their mojo, there is no reason they can’t take down the Lord Jeffs.
3. Middlebury Panthers (4-2; Last Week: 3)
Though they earned their second loss of the season, they are not far behind Trinity. They completely outplayed the Bantams, but crumbled at the end of the game when they fumbled the ball and threw two interceptions. The Panthers offense racked up 449 yards, and nearly doubled Trinity in first downs with 27. The Middlebury defense sacked Puzzo five times, with Gil Araujo ’16 getting 2.5 sacks for 20 yards; Araujo also had 3.5 tackles for a loss of 23 yards. Middlebury lost its chance at a NESCAC Championship, but they are still playing for runner-up as they take on Hamilton this Saturday and then Tufts the following week.
4. Wesleyan Cardinals (4-2; Last Week: 5)
Though it was a close win against Bowdoin last Saturday, Wesleyan outplayed the Polar Bears, outweighing their total offense by 429 yards to 223 yards. Lou Stevens ’16 did a good job punching the ball through for two touchdowns on 12 carries. Cornerback Zac Cuzner ’17 had Noah Nelson’s ’19 number all day picking him off three times and breaking up three passes. One thing to keep an eye on is the starting quarterback position. Starter Gernald Hawkins ’18 is less than 100 percent right now, and back-up Mark Piccirillo ’19, who was already too talented to keep off the field completely, was 16-21 when he took over for Hawkins against Wesleyan. The Cardinals look to improve to five wins as they take on Williams this weekend.
5. Tufts Jumbos (4-2; Last Week: 4)
Tufts suffered a disappointing loss to Amherst where they were outscored 32-7. The Jumbos could only compile 161 offensive yards with little success in their rushing game. QB Alex Snyder ’17 was shut down by the LJ’s as he threw a pick and was sacked three times losing a total of 36 yards. The Tufts lone touchdown came on a one-yard run by Chance Brady ’17. We would have hoped this game was much closer, but Amherst was too dominant. Tufts can end the season on a high note though if they are able to take it to Colby and Middlebury. Beating one of them would secure an above .500 season and show improvement from last season.
6. Bates Bobcats (1-5; Last Week: 7)
Though the Bobcats avoid Trinity in their schedule, they have looked good against the rest of the league, losing some close games. Saturday Bates pulled off a 10-9 win against Colby for the first leg of the CBB. Colby had a chance to tie the game with an extra point, but Collin Richardson ’18 stepped up and blocked the kick to preserve the one-point lead. With Patrick Dugan ’16 passing for just 43 yards on four completions, Bates was able to grind out a win. Bates can win the CBB title with a win vs. Bowdoin this weekend.
7. Bowdoin (1-5; Last Week: 8)
While being outmatched by 206 total yards of offense by Wesleyan, Bowdoin was able to keep it close and lose this game by just six points. Nelson had a tough game where he threw three interceptions and one touchdown on 36 pass attempts. The Polar Bears will wash this loss because they have the CBB to play in their final two games. All three teams seem equal, and it would be no surprise to see a three-way tie for the title.
8. Hamilton (1-5; Last Week: 10)
They finally did it. Hamilton beat the Ephs at Williams for the first time in 19 years and the first time in Williamstown in 29 years, and it was Hamilton’s first win in over three years. They competed well and took advantage of Williams’ penalties and mistakes. Hamilton’s Cole Freeman ’19 tossed two touchdowns while compiling 180 yards completing 13 of 27 attempts. Charles Ensley ’17 was on the receiving end bringing in two touchdowns on four catches for 84 yards. Hamilton takes on Middlebury this weekend in Vermont, which will likely send the Continentals back down to earth.
9. Williams (2-4; Last Week: 6)
Losing at home against Hamilton for the first time in 29 years was a low point for Williams this season. They committed 11 penalties that tallied 104 yards, and five of the penalties granted Hamilton a first down. It is hard to win playing like that. Williams will face Wesleyan and Amherst in the final two games of the season. Darrias Sime ’16 was able to add a pair of touchdowns on seven catches. The Eph win column will likely stay at two the remainder of the season.
10. Colby (1-5; Last Week: 9)
Colby will hold down the No. 10 spot for this week. A disappointing loss to Bates leaves them bitter. They can redeem themselves in the final game when they travel to Bowdoin and have a shot at tying up the CBB. The Mules gained just under 100 more yards than Bates, but Gabe Harrington ’17 was less than spectacular throwing an interception and just 82 yards on 11 passes. The bottom of the table has a lot of opportunity for movement with four of the five teams with just one win.
If you missed Part One yesterday, here you go. Otherwise, read on.
Tufts
Ranked seventh in passing yards per game, Tufts is one of the few teams that isn’t passing the ball more this season. QB Alex Snyder ’17 doesn’t have the completion percentage of his predecessor, Jack Doll ’15 (who completed 70 percent of his passes), but he’s averaging more passing yards per game (191.7 to Doll’s 186.5). Snyder’s advantage in this regard can be explained by the fact that the Jumbos are averaging more than 50 yards per game this season than they did the last. All things considered, their passing game isn’t seeing the volume it has in recent years. Considering Snyder’s 173 pass attempts thus far in 2015, Tufts offensive scheme is very unlike the one that encouraged QB John Dodds ’13 to throw the ball nearly 350 times in 2012. Averaging close to 13 receiving touchdowns over the previous four seasons, the Jumbos offense is on pace to fall short of that average this fall, having found the end zone through the air only six times through week six.
Instead, RB Chance Brady ’17 has become the pinnacle of the offense. Averaging 104.2 ground yards per game, Brady has rushed for nine touchdowns. Despite Tufts dynamic ground game, its receivers are still producing. WR Mike Rando ’17 leads the team in receiving with 28 receptions. Ben Berey ’17, while not reproducing at the same clip that he did last year (38 receptions, one TD), is contributing to Tufts’ pass production with 13 receptions for 166 yards and a touchdown. The Tufts passing game is clearly not the same threat that it has been in recent years, but it remains a large part of its offensive production. The Jumbos feel that the way to success in the NESCAC is predicated by running the ball first and foremost. They will retain the ability to throw the ball a lot, but the rushing game will become more and more important.
Verdict: Enduring. But not likely to increase in the near future.
Wesleyan
Wesleyan is like Amherst in that its running game is just as valuable as its passing game. Through Week 6, the Cardinals are averaging basically the same amount of yards through the air and ground. QB Gernald Hawkins ’18 has averaged 157.0 passing yards per game but has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns. Unlike QB Jesse Warren ’15, who threw for 190 yards per game while firing 15 touchdowns, Hawkins’ arm is not what makes him a dangerous offensive weapon. Simply put, Warren wasn’t a threat on the ground; Hawkins is. He led the Cardinals in rushing through five weeks, until he was held out of most of the Bowdoin game because of health concerns.
Wesleyan’s running attack is paced by Jaylen Berry ’18, who has managed 59.5 yards per game and two touchdowns. WR Devon Carillo ’17 leads the team in touchdowns (five) and poses a significant threat as a productive pass-catcher (10 receptions). WR Mike Breuler ’16, who had only two receptions in 2014, has emerged as Hawkins’ top target. He has hauled in 29 receptions, making him the only player other than Carillo to break the double digit plateau. The ability of Hawkins and Mark Piccirillo ’19 to run the ball helps keep the defense honest and opens up the passing game, but the Cardinals are a team that ideally wants to be running the ball the majority of the time.
Verdict: Temporary. The Cardinals want to run the ball first and foremost.
Colby
Colby threw the ball nearly 300 times last fall, which accounted for over half of their plays. Through six weeks, the Mules have let the ball fly just 42.4 percent of the time. With an average of 150 passing yards per game, Colby is averaging fewer yards through the air than they have in three of their previous four seasons. QB Gabe Harrington ’17 has struggled to find consistency with his receivers, throwing for only one touchdown with nine interceptions. He is completing nearly 52.7 percent of his passes, but almost a fifth of them are short passes to RB Jabari Hurdle-Price ’17. Last season, WR Ryder Arsenault ’17 emerged as a leader of the WR core with 25 receptions for 263 yards and four touchdowns. As Arsenault has dealt with an injury that he sustained during Week 2 at Middlebury, Mark Snyder ’18 has stepped up in a big way. Snyder has been Harrington’s go-to guy in Colby’s passing attack, recording 25 receptions for 229 yards and a score. Colby has incorporated running backs into their passing game more this season, as Hurdle-Price is already converging on his receptions total from last year.
On the ground, the junior running back is averaging 101.8 yards per game while accounting for half of the Mules’ eight touchdowns. In 2014, 11 of the 17 touchdowns Colby scored were passing, but this year only one of the nine has been. Against Bates and Bowdoin, Colby should have better luck and improve their passing numbers. Even so, the passing offense has taken a step back from where it was, and it is unclear if a quality quarterback is on the roster right now.
Verdict: Temporary. This dip won’t last as they will get back to passing the ball.
Bates
I’ve heard it said that a rising tide lifts all ships. This fall, Bates is challenging that claim. After averaging only 116 passing yards per game over the past three seasons, Bates has thrown the ball with more efficiency at 130 yards per game, but the volume has essentially stayed the same. Bates has not topped 170 pass attempts in the last five seasons, and it’s unlikely that QB Patrick Dugan ’16 is going to change that this year. Dugan has attempted 122 passes thus far, which is similar to the pace QB Matt Cannone ’15 set last fall. When Dugan throws the ball in the air, it’s extremely likely that WR Mark Riley ’16 is going to be on the receiving end of the play. Riley has carried the receiving core with 33 receptions and 382 yards, which is nearly half of the team’s receiving yards.
Like Colby, Bates much prefers to run the ball, but the schemes the two teams run are of course very different. RB Ivan Reese ’17 has handled the bulk of the carries, and slot back Frank Williams ’18 has run the ball for an average of 40.7 yards per game and a team high three touchdowns. Seven of the team’s eleven scores have come on the ground, and the Reese/Williams combination has accounted for six of them. Obviously since Bates runs the triple option, they are not going to suddenly start airing it out.
Verdict: Enduring. The Bobcats are not about to start the throwing the ball more.
Final Tally
Teams throwing the ball more: Seven (All but Tufts, Colby, and Bates)
Number of teams throwing the ball more which are expected to continue doing so: Five (Trinity and Wesleyan are temporary in our minds)
Despite the graduation of two successful quarterbacks last season in Jack Doll and Jesse Warren, names like Sonny Puzzo and Reece Foy have filled the void. Multiple receivers have burst onto the scene in 2015 and quarterbacks are taking full advantage of big play opportunities through the air. Whereas only six receivers averaged over 50 yards per game last season, there are 14 topping that mark this fall. Only one NESCAC receiver, Mark Riley, managed over 70 receiving yards in 2014, with 71.5. That number has been topped by six receivers thus far, with Middlebury’s Matt Minno leading the group at 98.0
Teams’ receiving arsenals are becoming the focus on offense, and secondaries are being exploited like never before. Middlebury has long been the only NESCAC team worthy of high praise for its aerial attack, but 2015 has created a different narrative. An outlier in much of recent history, the Panthers passing game is being converged upon. Smash mouth football has receded as the norm in the NESCAC and more exciting offenses have emerged. This isn’t just a short-term uptick either. Yes, there are some younger secondaries that are being exploited, but the vast majority of QBs will be back next year. They will have another year of experience. New NESCAC coaches are more willing to throw the ball than their predecessors. Buckle up because this trend is not going to stop.
