Saturday Recap

Saturday brought more excitement and intrigue with two teams going home in the NESCAC tournament’s version of moving day.

Wesleyan jumped into the driver’s seat with a scintillating 3-2 victory over Tufts. Both starters shut down the offenses early with the game scoreless through four innings. Tufts struck first in the top of the fifth on a Max Freccia ’14 double to score Wade Hauser ’15. Wesleyan battled back when they played some small ball. Andrew Yin ’15 plated Nick Miceli ’17 on a bunt single. After a Donnie Cimino ’15 single, both runners moved up on a double steal, and scored on a Sam Goodwin-Boyd ’15 single. Gavin Pittore ’16 made sure the lead held up with 4.2 innings of one run ball in relief. He jumped all over Tufts’ hitters with nine strikeouts and moves to 6-1 on the season. A more complete recap can be found here. Also a thanks to Wescores for providing pictures of the game here.

Now the Cardinals head into tomorrow in complete control. Manager Mark Woodworth made clear how much he wanted to win when he brought in Pittore so quickly in relief. The move made perfect sense since a loss would have made Wesleyan need three more wins to take the championship. It is unclear who will get the start tomorrow for the Cardinals, but Woodworth will probably be ready to use any of his pitchers including Pittore and Nick Cooney ’15.

In the loser’s bracket Bates beat Amherst in what was the most surprising result of the day. Bates rallied from down 2-1 to score three runs in the eighth to win 4-2 and bounce Amherst from the tournament. No doubt a disappointing finish for Amherst, but all the credit should be given to a Bates team that proved they are right there with the best teams in the NESCAC this weekend. Dean Bonneau ’14 was spectacular in relief allowing only one hit in 3.2 scoreless innnings. A complete recap can be found here.

The last game of the day was another elimination game between East Division foes Tufts and Bates. Tufts used a five run third inning to take much of the suspense out of the game. Christian Sbily ’14 and Tom Ryan ’15 made sure the lead had no problem holding up for Tufts as they cruised to a 7-1 victory. Recap is here. Bates finishes the season at 20-21, but that record vastly undersells the quality of team they were. Tufts moves onto the championship where they will have to win two games tomorrow against Wesleyan.

It will be a tall task for Tufts to beat Wesleyan twice especially given that their three top pitchers have already started this weekend. The potential ability for pitchers to quickly turn around and pitch even one or two innings will be a huge difference maker. Right now a Wesleyan team that started only 5-4 looks primed to finish off a dominant run through the NESCAC regular season and playoffs.

Power Rankings Part 2- The East Playoff Teams

We ranked every team that team that is already done for the season, and now it is time to move our attention to those still playing. Since it is too early to wrap up their seasons, we will look towards the weekend. We cover why each team will win, each team will lose, and the player no one is talking about right now who we will be on Monday. And no, we don’t miss that irony. The NESCAC website championship weekend preview is also worth a look with a good overview of the four teams. Finally, we are breaking up the East and West. Note the rankings for each team are only relevant in our power rankings Just because we are putting Tufts first in the final power rankings doesn’t mean we think they will necessarily win. Our predictions will be out Friday morning.

4. Bates (19-19, 7-5)

Why They Will Win: Bates is playing with more and more confidence every week. That confidence isn’t shaken by losing four games in a row this week to Suffolk and St. Joseph’s (Maine). Their senior trio of Brad Reynolds ’14, Kevin Davis ’14, and Griff Tewksbury ’14 have to play extraordinary to give them a chance. If Reynolds pitches in the first game against Wesleyan, he will benefit from their lack of familiarity against him. Expect Reynolds to make relief appearances as well in his final college weekend. Davis and Tewksbury will have to carry an offense that lacked depth at the beginning of the year. Guys like Rockwell Jackson ’15, Brendan Fox ’17, and Sam Warren ’16 have done a great job stepping up and making sure it isn’t just a two man rodeo. Those guys need to continue to produce in order to score enough runs. The formula for success is a great start by Reynolds, a clean weekend fielding, and contributions up and down the lineup.

Why They Will Lose: If Bates loses the game Reynolds starts, then it’s chances of winning the whole tournament will all but disappear. There is no doubt that Bates is the least talented team in the whole tournament so it needs it’s strengths to be especially strong. The defensive problems we saw earlier in the year flared up this week in a four error game against St. Joseph’s. The real weakness for Bates is their pitching behind Reynolds. Chris Fusco is a senior who has pitched a lot of games, but his 5.35 ERA belies the fact that relying on him is a risky proposition. Will Levangie ’15 has a miniscule ERA (1.65), but has made only one relief appearance in the last four weeks so his status for this weekend is unclear. A host of relievers have pitched well in more limited roles, and it is possible Bates shuffles pitchers in and out to keep hitters from seeing anybody multiple times.

Sleeper- Dean Bonneau ’14 Relief Pitcher: One of the overlooked Bates seniors has quietly put together a nice season out of the bullpen. In 22 innings Bonneau has a 1.64 ERA and 9.00 K/9. He could be called on if one of the Bates starters falters early on. Bates will stretch whatever is working as much as possible, and Bonneau could be a magic balm for any pitching shortcomings that crop up.

1. Tufts (30-5, 9-3)

Why They Will Win: Over the course of the season, Tufts has proven themselves to be the most complete team in the NESCAC. They have scored more runs, gotten on base more often, allowed less runs, and committed less errors than every team in the NESCAC. Kyle Slinger ’15 is the best pitcher in the NESCAC, and Christian Sbily ’14 and Tim Superko ’17 are no slouches either. The three starters are also the top three in ERA for the NESCAC. On the other side of the ball we wrote about how Connor McDavitt has exploded at the top of the lineup, and Tufts deep lineup gets on base nearly four times out of ten (.398 team OBP). Their 30 wins in the regular season is an impressive accomplishment that shows the quality of player on the roster from the first to last player. Tufts will win if their starting pitching steps up once again like they have every time they have been called on this year.

Why They Will Lose: In a double elimination setting, games aren’t won on paper. Every team has weaknesses, and Tufts is no different with a bullpen that blew leads in three NESCAC games. Tom Ryan ’15 is the main reliever out of the pen, and he was involved in two of those games. Behind him the bullpen looks to be mainly Matt Moser ’16 and Spero Varinos ’17. The more games Tufts plays this weekend, the more and more their bullpen could be exposed. While we talked about how balanced Tufts’ hitting is, the flip side of that is they don’t have a go to thumper in the middle of the lineup. Put another way, Tufts relies on wearing down pitchers more than hitting the ball out of the park. The Jumbos have hit the least amount of homers of any team in the playoffs, though really only Amherst has a significant amount more. With the pitching improving in the playoffs, it’s possible Tufts will struggle to score runs.

Sleeper- Nick Cutsumpas ’14 Catcher: Ok, so it isn’t like Cutsumpas hasn’t performed all year with his .432 OBP and steady defense behind the plate, but others have hogged the headlines for the most part. The senior is somewhat of a streaky hitter. His last seven games with a hit have all been multi-hit games. If he gets hot this weekend, forget about it, Tufts will be too good to be beat.