Month: January 2019

It’s Almost February?!: Power Rankings 1/30

Power Rankings 1/30

Every week I closely follow the results of all the conference games, hoping that as each weekend passes we’ll be provided with more clarity on where each team falls relative to one another. Unfortunately, I haven’t once come away from a weekend this year feeling like I knew exactly where each team stood and how they would fare in the upcoming games. As a fan, this is exactly how I like it. I really hope the NESCAC is still working on that deal with ESPN 8 “The Ocho” because the entertainment value is off the charts. It’s a fool’s task to try and look through stats and box scores to decide who you think will win a given game because it’s more or less a crapshoot. This conference is a dream come true for a fan of the game, but as someone who has a horse in this race* it makes me but my nails to the nubs on a weekly basis. I guess you could call that fun. Anyways we’re a little over halfway through conference games, and there is still very little set in stone so take a look to see how far everyone has climbed or fallen in the rankings:

*If anyone from the NCAA is reading this I just want it on record that I have never involved myself with any sort of gambling or sports betting and I do not condone or endorse such behavior, this is merely a figure of speech; an idiom, if you will.

(3) 1. #6 Williams (18-2, 5-1)

Last week: W 86-50 vs. Trinity

This week: @ Colby, @ Bowdoin

The Ephs only had one game on the weekend, and they demolished Trinity by a score of 86-50. Four of five starters scored in double figures, with Bobby Casey ’19 contributing 20 points to lead the way. Williams was able to get out to an early lead and the Bantams completely folded, seeing their 24-point halftime deficit turn into a 36-point loss. It seems that the losses to Middlebury and Amherst are in the past because the Ephs are looking an awful lot like the dominant team they were to start the season. Questions still exist moving forward about their depth and what they can get out of their bench, but they really just have so many talented scoring options. Any of their guys can beat you on a given night, so even if one of their best players is off they’ve got another right there to pick up the slack. They lead the NESCAC in shooting percentage at 49.8% and average over 83 points per game, so they’re about as devastating a team as you can find. Matchups with Colby and Bowdoin this weekend should be interesting given that the two teams are trending in opposite directions. Colby surprised us last weekend, so Williams will have to be certain that doesn’t happen again.

(1) 2. Wesleyan (15-5, 5-2)

Last week: W 85-75 @ Bates, L 75-71 @ Tufts

This week: vs. Trinity

The loss to Tufts on Saturday is unfortunate, but I’m not down on the Cardinals just yet. They’ve already got wins over Middlebury, Hamilton, and Amherst, and a somewhat favorable remaining conference schedule. Austin Hutcherson ’21 has absolutely exploded in his second season, as he’s currently tied with Kena Gilmour for the league lead in points per game at 19.9. He does this while shooting over 45% from the floor and over 40% from behind the three-point line. Not all he does is score though; Hutcherson averages nearly 6 rebounds and over 3 assists per game, the latter a team best. Jordan Bonner ’19 and Antone Walker ’21 have also done a nice job in their secondary and tertiary roles, with Bonner chipping in 14.5 points and 9.5 rebounds per game and Walker adding 13.6 points per game. The Cardinals could still very well end up with the top seed, but they would need Williams to lose at least twice since they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker between the two. It’s been a crazy year so far, so who knows what’s still in store.

(5) 3. Middlebury (15-5, 4-2)

Last week: W 75-38 vs. Trinity

This week: @ Bowdoin, @ Colby

Matt Folger has been the man on the court this year, and that mustache tells us he has also been the man off the court

Much like Williams, the Panthers took care of business in their only game of the weekend at home against Trinity. The Bantams simply couldn’t get anything to fall, and Middlebury remains one of the four 2-loss teams near the top of the standings. Max Bosco ’21 has continued to impress since he entered the starting lineup, and he led the way with 15 points and 5 assists on Saturday. His size isn’t particularly imposing, but Bosco is so quick and has so many different ways to score, obviously making him incredibly difficult to defend. The Panthers have so many guards in their lineup that sometimes they don’t have a ton of size on the court, but Matt Folger ’20 has done an outstanding job alongside big man Eric McCord ’19 to do the bulk of the work. The duo combines for 19.5 rebounds per game, and Folger averages 15.4 points per game as well. Middlebury will also take the trip to Maine to visit Bowdoin and Colby this weekend in a very important couple of matchups. Colby has been red hot and this could end up being a very exciting game, but Bowdoin has been struggling recently and this is a game that the Panthers need to win if they want to stay near the top. Lots of eyes will be on the results from Maine this weekend.

(4) 4. #11 Hamilton (17-2, 3-2)

Last week: W 77-42 vs. Bowdoin, L 86-78 vs. Colby

This week: vs. Bates, vs. Tufts

Things certainly didn’t go the way the Continentals had hoped this weekend after they earned a solid win on Friday, but were stunned by Colby on Saturday on their home court. They were simply outplayed by the Mules in nearly every aspect of the game, so once Colby took the lead late in the first half they never looked back. Kena Gilmour ’20 had a solid 24-point day, but no one else could really get anything going on the offensive end and Hamilton only shot 39.3% as a team. This was an unfortunate loss, but the Continentals are still very early in their NESCAC season since they had their game versus Amherst postponed. They’ve only got 2 losses in conference play and two winnable games in the weekend ahead of them. They finish the season with games against Middlebury, Williams, and Amherst, so if they want to host a first round game in the conference tournament then they’ll have to go 2-0 against Bates and Tufts. It’s hard to envision Hamilton winning more than one or maybe two of their final three games, so this weekend is a big one.

(2) 5. #23 Amherst (15-3, 3-2)

Last week: L 83-73 vs. Colby, W 86-62 vs. Bowdoin

This week: vs. Tufts, vs. Bates

Well Amherst is in literally the exact same position that Hamilton is in. They’re behind in games played so at 3-2 in conference they’ve still got a lot left to play. Their game with the Continentals still doesn’t have a date set, but you can obviously see the importance of that head-to-head matchup. They also have two games this weekend that are essentially must-win to stay in contention for a first round home game. The Mammoths are a pretty balanced squad, but Grant Robinson ’21 and Eric Sellew ’20 have put forward a good effort in leading the way. Robinson is averaging 15 points and 3 assists per game (both team bests), but he ups those numbers to 18 points and 4 assists in conference play. Sellew pitches in 11 points and 8 rebounds per game, bringing some size to the lineup and finding a place among the top forwards in the conference. Amherst is a very well coached team and they are loaded with talent as always, so this weekend shouldn’t be a challenge right? Tufts and Bates are two of the weaker teams in the NESCAC so surely the Mammoths should secure two home wins shouldn’t they? What makes this conference so fun is that we really have no idea what’s going to happen in those two games – NESCAC football could certainly take some notes from this kind of parity.

(10) 6. Colby (15-5, 3-3)

Last week: W 83-73 @ Amherst, W 86-78 @ Hamilton

This week: vs. Williams, vs. Middlebury

Sam Jefferson has elevated the Mules to another level over the last few games

Well I’ll be the first to admit that Colby shocked everyone over the weekend, going on the road to beat both Amherst and Hamilton (teams that previously had 3 combined losses between them) in convincing fashion. Neither game was a blowout, but the Mules were in control the whole way in both affairs, led by NESCAC Player of the Week Sam Jefferson ’20. Jefferson tied for the team lead with 24 points against Amherst on Friday, and then torched Hamilton to the tune of 29 points and 8 rebounds, while shooting over 56% on the weekend. This was a jaw-dropping effort from a team that has quickly changed the trajectory of its season. The Mules now sit at 3-3 in the conference with games left against Williams, Middlebury, Wesleyan, and Conn College. A win in at least one of those games likely gets them a spot in the postseason, but two wins secures it without a doubt. What Colby also proved is that they’re capable of winning big games on the road, a quality that will serve them well and terrify opponents come playoff time. They look like the hottest team in the NESCAC right so we’ll have to wait to find out who will be the first to slow down the Mules.

(9) 7. Tufts (10-10, 4-3)

Last week: W 91-87 vs. Conn College, W 75-71 vs. Wesleyan

This week: @ Amherst, @ Hamilton

Tufts is in an interesting position because they appear to be right near Colby and Bates in the middle tier of the conference standings right now, but having 4 wins under their belt puts them at a huge advantage. Usually having 4 wins gets you into the tournament, but they’ve still got a chance to add to their resume with games left against Amherst, Hamilton, and a struggling Trinity team. The Jumbos have already shown us that they’re capable of beating the best teams by knocking off both Middlebury and now Wesleyan. Brennan Morris ’21 led the way over the weekend, putting up team-leading totals of 16 and 20 points against Conn College and Wesleyan, respectively. What makes the effort by the Jumbos all the more impressive is the scoring balance that they’ve displayed. In both games this weekend Tufts had at least three guys in double figures and saw nine different players score at least one basket. This is the way that they’re able to compete with teams on the level of Wesleyan and Middlebury: Tufts doesn’t have one true stud player, but they have a deep rotation of guys that can score and they play good team basketball. A huge road trip lies ahead of them, but each of their opponents fell to Colby last week so truly everyone is vulnerable.

(8) 8. Bates (6-13, 3-4)

Last week: L 85-75 vs. Wesleyan, W 76-59 vs. Conn College

This week: @ Hamilton, @ Amherst

This might be a generous ranking given their 6-13 overall record, but I’m going with the hot hand. The Bobcats looked atrocious in non-conference play, but have looked like an entirely different team in the New Year. In NESCAC play, Bates is actually first in both shooting percentage and three-point shooting percentage, first in assists per game, and they turn the ball over less than anyone. Kody Greenhalgh ’20 has come alive in conference play, averaging 12.6 points and a team-high 1.6 steals per game. Tom Coyne ’20 has helped provide another legit scoring threat since returning from injury and Nick Lynch ’19 has put up 3 consecutive 20+ point games while shooting over 60% from the floor. The Bobcats started very slow, but their recent emergence has made them a much scarier opponent to face. They surely aren’t the favorite in either of their games this weekend, but if they could find a way to steal one on the road then they’ll be in a terrific position to lock up a playoff spot. This team is a total wild card right now and I have to say it makes them very fun to watch.

(6) 9. Trinity (13-7, 2-4)

Last week: L 86-50 @ Williams, L 75-38 @ Middlebury

This week: @ Wesleyan, vs. Conn College

Nick Seretta and the Bantams have some work to do if they want to play postseason basketball

Trinity and Bowdoin both had horrendous weekends and have nearly identical records, so I’m going with the winner of the head-to-head matchup. In both of their games over the weekend Donald Jorden ’21 was the only Bantam to score in double figures, and he never got higher than 12. Losing by a combined 73 points is about as bad as a weekend could possibly go, and a deeper dive into the numbers doesn’t make things seem any better. Between the two games, Trinity shot 25% from the field and 19% from deep, they were out-rebounded by 17, they turned the ball over 9 more times than opponents, and they even committed 17 more fouls than their opponents. These are abysmal numbers by any standard, but especially not for a team that’s hoping to sneak into the NESCAC Tournament. Having two conference victories definitely keeps them in the conversation for the playoff race, but it’s an uphill battle from here for the Bantams. They’ve got 4 games left and would likely need to win 2 (maybe even 3 depending on tiebreakers) to clinch a playoff spot. They aren’t out of it, but they’ve got their work cut out for them.

(7) 10. Bowdoin (12-7, 2-4)

Last week: L 77-42 @ Hamilton, L 86-62 @ Amherst

This week: vs. Middlebury, vs. Williams

The same thing I said for Trinity applies here for the Polar Bears. They had a truly awful weekend that they’ll look to put behind them, and they’ll have to pull off an upset or two to find their way into the postseason. At this point it really looks as though Bowdoin only has four guys that actually do anything. David Reynolds ’20 and Jack Simonds ’19 score as much as anyone in the league, Zavier Rucker ’21 has a hand in the scoring and does a fine job running the point, and Hugh O’Neil ’19 grabs a ton of rebounds. No one else on the roster has an impact whatsoever on the game, and it’s really hurting the Polar Bears right now. They’ve got a good foundation with some valuable players in solid roles, but they simply need more production from their other guys. As Colby showed us, things can change a lot from week to week so who knows what to expect this weekend. Bowdoin isn’t out of the equation yet, but they do still have quite a bit left to prove.

(11) 11. Conn College (6-14, 0-7)

Last week: L 91-87 @ Tufts, L 76-59 @ Bates

This week: @ Trinity

It really does get challenging sometimes finding new things to say about a team that really hasn’t changed much. The Camels now run their losing streak in conference games up to 18 dating back to the very end of the 2016-2017 season. I’m not quite sure what needs to happen in New London, but things have been very bleak for a while now. David Labossiere ’19 and Dan Draffan ’21 continue to impress, but that’s about all they’ve got. It would be nice if they could be getting more out of the NESCAC’s tallest player, Ryan Omslaer ’22, who stands at 7’0” and weighs in at 215 pounds. You’d think a guy that much taller than everyone else would thrive, but I guess he’s still a work in progress. After all, he is only a freshman. Conn was almost able to steal their first conference win against Tufts on Friday, in an impressive effort fueled by David Labossiere who scored 26 points and hauled in 8 rebounds. At this point in the season their starters must be absolutely gassed because they pretty much only use 7-8 guys per game, and even the few guys that do come off the bench usually only see 10-15 minutes at most. They face Trinity this weekend and if there was ever a team that was struggling enough to lose to Conn this year, it could be the Bantams right now. Hopefully the action heats up on Sunday in Hartford.

Mules Making Moves; 1/29 Stock Report

Stock Up

Upsets (and the Colby Mules)

One of my first power rankings this season highlighted how far above the competition Hamilton and Williams were after the preseason. I’ll get to that misinterpretation more later, but the point for this stock up section is that I would have never expected Colby to upend Hamilton at any point in the season. Amherst has been a bit of a surprise themselves, but the Mules managed to beat them this past weekend also which shows that it really is anybody’s championship to win (except Conn). After all, we saw Middlebury upset Williams recently, which nobody (not even a big Panther fan) saw coming. This is a good year for NESCAC basketball, and while we don’t have quite as many teams in the top-25 as normal, as it is just Hamilton and Williams for now, each weekend contest is much more entertaining to the average viewer. 

The Mules are going up, up, and up after last weekend.

Balance

In a related point, I don’t think we have ever had such a log-jam in the top ten NESCAC teams. Trinity, after an awful weekend, is still just two games out of third place. Now, I have no inclination that they will make a run for a home playoff game, but it’s still good to see how meaningful these last 3-5 NESCAC games will be for each team in the final weekends before the playoffs. The race is particularly interesting when it comes down to who will host the first round playoff games as its five teams in right now for four spots. In an unexpected turn of events, Hamilton now finds themselves tied with Amherst at just 3-2 in conference play and nearly on the outside looking in. Balance is not just in the standings, either, as each team has a group of weapons that make each unit dangerous in their own way. Hamilton has Kena Gilmour amongst four seasoned and talented senior starters, Middlebury has Matt Folger and some out-of-nowhere productive guards, Colby shoots lights out, Williams has three potential POYs, Wesleyan’s Austin Hutcherson is a beast in the simplest of terms; Amherst’s Grant Robinson is breaking out this year, Bowdoin has a trio of terror in Jack Simonds, Hugh O’Neil, and David Reynolds, Tufts’ duo of Eric Savage and Brennan Morris can turn the tables in any contest, and Bates has one of the best guards in the league in Jeff Spellman. Enough said. NESCAC basketball can bring it on any given night.

Gilmour and the Conts need to lock it in before the playoffs if they want to have a chance against the Ephs.

Stock Down

Preseason Scheduling 

Non-conference games have contributed to our confusion as a writing staff at this point in the season. Hamilton is the main culprit here as they appeared narrowly behind Williams in talent level after they finished their non-conference schedule. Both of the Continentals’ losses have come in conference, while Amherst has also lost two of their three games this season against NESCAC teams. Colby, on the other hand, has been making moves up the power rankings, showing that their early season blunders were more of an aberration. Bates too shows that not all preseason schedules are made the same as they were 3-9 and now find themselves 3-4 against NESCAC teams. 

The Mighty Chickens and Words of the Jealous

Trinity needs to figure out whatever went wrong last weekend.

We often have complaints during football season from non-Trinity football fans, claiming that the Bantams are athletically far and above any other NESCAC school due to their “lower” academic standards. I do not endorse or agree with such claims and firmly believe Trinity should belong in the NESCAC for good, their basketball team’s performance last weekend goes to put those fans’ opinions to rest. Sure, they are great at football. But if you were a recruit looking to play at a high academic school, why is it so ridiculous to think that the majority wouldn’t choose a school in an urban setting and one with a fantastic track record of success. As DIII sports continue to get more competitive, it is no surprise that Tufts, a stone’s throw from Boston, has made a quick transition into a successful football program either. Regardless, since football is only one of many NESCAC sports, schools’ success in other areas should indicate whether all of their students have an athletic advantage. Trinity, as good as they are at football, really threw up a dud against Middlebury last weekend. No, their season is not over and they could easily make the playoffs, however, 22.4% FG will not win any games, ever. Their high scorer, Donald Jorden, put up 11 and led the team with a 50% shooting night. That definitely can’t happen again. And to those NESCAC fans that continue to find excuses for why other teams can’t beat Trinity: If you can’t take the heat, get out of the kitchen. That’s a hot take on a cold winter day.

Looking for a Pacesetter: Game of the Week 1/25

Game of the Week Preview

This is an interesting weekend in NESCAC basketball because if you look at the slate of games, you have a feeling that you could confidently pick anywhere from 7 to 9 of the 9 games correctly this weekend. Nearly all of the games feature a team towards the top of the standings against a team towards the bottom of the standings. The great thing about this conference is that we’re likely to be surprised by more than one result this weekend. Tufts is a total wild card, and you really don’t know what you’re going to get out of the Maine schools because a lot of times they’ll randomly shock you. We’ve put out previews for 8 of the 9 games so far, but Friday’s game between Hamilton and Bowdoin was big enough in our minds to earn Game of the Week honors. Now we can present a closer look at the huge matchup in upstate New York:

Overview

Mark Lutz has been a valuable contributor off the bench for Hamilton

Hamilton comes into the game on a mini two-game winning streak after suffering their first loss of the season to Wesleyan. They’ve looked every bit the team they were at the start of the year in these past two games so it appears that their trip to Middletown was a mere hiccup. The Continentals currently lead the NESCAC averaging 89.1 points per game while shooting 49.2% from the field, second to only Williams. In the loss to Wesleyan they shot a season-low 35.9%, so it’s easy to see why they finally had to put one in the loss column. None of their starters are below 6’4” so they do a good job rebounding on both ends of the floor. The key for Hamilton is to keep the pace of the game at the speed they want it. They’re a team that scores a lot of points and shoot at a very high rate, so a faster pace certainly tips the balance their way. They also have a bit more depth than Bowdoin, with talented players like Spencer Kendall ’21, Mark Lutz ’20, and Sayo Denloye ’20 coming off the bench. If they can keep the points coming and make this one a shootout I don’t see Bowdoin being able to keep up with their firepower.

David Reynolds is going to have to have one of his classic big games if they want to compete with the Continentals

The Polar Bears travel to Clinton having won three in a row since their consecutive conference losses to Tufts and Trinity. They were just able to snag a crucial win at Colby to keep their postseason hopes still very alive. It’s no secret that Bowdoin is very much a two-headed monster with David Reynolds ’20 and Jack Simonds ’19 who are 2nd and 7th in the NESCAC, respectively. They either take turns in the spotlight or simply share it instead – they’ve accounted for 12 combined 20-point games and 4 combined 30-point games. It’s clear who’s doing the shooting, but stopping them is easier said than done. The nice thing for opponents is that if you are able to stop the two of them, you’ve pretty much won the game. The Polar Bears rely so heavily on their dynamic duo that they really don’t have many other viable scoring options. Zavier Rucker ’21 and Hugh O’Neil ’19 have each had their moments, but haven’t showed much consistency. Bowdoin isn’t a low-scoring team per se, but their scoring numbers have been relatively pedestrian to date so it is certainly in their best interest to keep the game at a pace they can keep up with. If this game gets into the upper-80s or 90s then they won’t stand a chance.

Hamilton X-Factor

Peter Hoffmann ’19

If the Continentals want to stay competitive with the top teams in the NESCAC, they’ll need strong efforts from guys in supporting roles. They can’t ask Kena Gilmour to go out there every night and single-handedly keep them in the game, and I think Hoffmann is a guy who has all the right tools to step up as we move forward. He was on a tear at the start of the season, scoring 18 points in the first game of the season and consistently putting up 12-16 points per game. However, his scoring output took a hit once conference play started, and he netted just 4 and 8 points against Trinity and Wesleyan, respectively. Luckily he was able to get in on the blowout victory over Conn College, dropping 15 points in just 21 minutes of action. As they progress Hoffmann will have to be able to do a little bit of scoring, with Gilmour and Michael Grassey doing the majority of the work. He’s also got a big frame at 6’6” and 210 pounds so he can help contribute to Hamilton’s dominance on the glass as well as block the occasional shot. If Hoffmann can get going again then the Continentals will be a lot to handle with all the other weapons they have in their lineup.

Bowdoin X-Factor

Zavier Rucker ’21

Rucker has been doing a fine job as facilitator for the Polar Bears, turning the ball over at a low rate and coming in at 3rd in the conference with 4.1 assists per game. He’s also got a bit of size for a point guard and combined with his athletic ability he has given a good effort to help rebound since Bowdoin places 3rd to last in rebounds per game. Rucker finds himself in a similar role to Hoffmann: he is clearly the team’s third scoring option so he’ll have to be selective with his shots and efficient when he does shoot. He isn’t a guy who is often going to be in isolation or taking contested fade aways, but because he’s on a team with Jack Simonds and David Reynolds (who require a lot of attention), he’s going to find himself a decent amount of good looks. It’s almost as if Rucker is forced to be the smartest guy on the team – he can’t just take shots at will because they already have two guys that do that, and do it well. Rucker has to have the discipline to know that really the only shots he should be taking are high percentage ones, and that those shots will come if he continues to help set up his teammates the way he has been. There’s no question that a lot is being asked of him, but if Rucker can be the smartest guy on the court, Bowdoin always has a great chance to win.

Final Thoughts

There are obviously some themes presenting themselves here, but I’ll try to lay things out as overtly as possible. Hamilton is the deeper and (slightly) more talented team, but Bowdoin has two guys who are capable of putting up huge numbers on any given night, so they’ll surely be able to compete. If you haven’t figured out that pace is going to be the key to the game then you should probably make your way back to the beginning of the article because I don’t think I can harp on it enough. Bowdoin has talent and if they can keep this game close then they’ve got a real shot at winning, but if they try and play at Hamilton’s pace then they won’t be able to keep up. I think they’ll hang around for a little while, but I think the Continentals will be able to speed things up just enough to run away with this one.

Writer’s Pick: Hamilton 95 – Bowdoin 83

Never a Dull Moment: Weekend Preview 1/25-26

Friday

Trinity (13-5, 2-2) @ #8 Williams (15-2, 4-1)

Williams had gone completely undefeated until last weekend when they lost their first two games in a row to Amherst and Middlebury. Before this it seemed pretty clear that Williams was the favorite in the CAC and one of the favorite seeds nationally, but at this point we may need to reevaluate. In their game against Midd the Ephs shot a measly 10% from 3-point range. Could this possibly explain what seems to be an out of place loss? Maybe, maybe not, though. The Amherst loss was probably an even bigger blow to Williams, they were leading at half and had all the opportunity in the world to take that game but they couldn’t pull it out. This next game needs to be a turning point for Williams if they still wish to fulfill their lofty goal of a national championship. Trinity, on the other hand, are feeling good right now. They went up to snowy Maine and took both games from Colby and Bowdoin, much improving their NESCAC record. They also were able to sweep their latest 2 mid-week games, putting them up to a 4 game win streak. This would be a huge opportunity for the Bantams to shake up the conference. The only question is whether or not the Bantams have the grit to hold of big bad Williams.

Score Prediction: Williams 81 – Trinity 72

#25 Wesleyan (14-4, 4-1) @ Bates (5-12, 2-3)

The Cardinals are on a roll at the moment as they have won their last 6 games. To make that even more impressive, within those 6 wins they faced 4 NESCAC teams and 3 nationally ranked teams. All of these feats have pushed them into a national ranking of their own. Jordan Bonner and Austin Hutcherson continue to thrive as the core of the Wesleyan team with terrific support from Antone Walker and others. As of now I would consider Wesleyan a member of the top 4 elite in the NESCAC along with Williams, Hamilton and Amherst. The fact that they have taken down two of those three already shows their talent. Bates has been a surprise team as of late. Looking at their preseason record I was not expecting much from the Bobcats but they have held their own in conference thus far. Big wins over Tufts and Colby have lifted them every so slightly out of the cellar of the NESCAC. Despite their success against these low to mid tier teams, I just don’t think they have what it takes to take down a team like Wesleyan, especially not right now.

Score Prediction: Wesleyan 82 – Bates 69

Connecticut College (6-11, 0-5) @ Tufts (8-10, 2-3)

Justin Kouyoumdjian will have to bring his A-game for the Jumbos to make a turn around this weekend

Tufts is a confusing team, to say the least. One game they will take down a Middlebury squad who have received national votes and then the next game they will lose to a bottom-tier team like Bates. It’s fairly evident that consistency is an issue for this squad, but at the same time they are talented enough to hang with most teams. Luke Rogers has been a solid big man for the Jumbos, nearly putting up a double-double a game. Beyond him no names and numbers really stand out on the stat sheet and that is their issue. Tufts has a lot of solid role players but not enough star players. If everyone happens to get hot then they are extremely dangerous but on your average game they are not anything to write home about. If anyone was going to hand Conn their first win of the year, it could be this Tufts team. While Tuft’s biggest issue is inconsistency, Conn’s biggest issue is their consistency: they are constantly losing. David Labossiere and Dan Draffan have been holding down the for for the Camels but there is only so much these guys can do. It’s clear that these guys are good NESCAC basketball players, they just need more of those to support them. I’m going to take a risk here though and say that Conn is going to roll into Medford and pick up their first conference win. I mean you can’t lose every game, right?

Score Prediction: Conn 81 – Tufts 80

Colby (12-5, 1-3) @ #19 Amherst (13-2, 2-1)

The Mammoths find themselves back in the national rankings this week after taking down formerly undefeated Williams in a non-conference matchup. After the last 2 intense matchups that Amherst has had, there will probably be a sense of relief for them being able to stay home and face a slightly less dangerous squad. Amherst has only lost 1 home game this season and it was against a very good Babson team. The thing I like most about this Amherst team is that they receive contributions from everyone on the roster. They have 8 guys that have clocked in for every game and nobody has played less than 7 games this year. When everyone gets a chance to be involved, it is much harder for the defense to develop a game plan and that has showed in Amherst’s success. Colby has been fairly frustrating to watch as a team this year. The big win over Tufts to start the season was extremely uplifting and gave that team a lot of hope but since then it seems as if everything has gone wrong. Losing tight games to Trinity and Bowdoin as well as a loss to Bates really hurts the Mules’ slim chances of making playoffs. With a very talented lineup that includes Sam Jefferson, Matt Hanna, Wallace Tucker and Noah Tyson one would expect that the Mules can compete game in and game out. While they have been competing they just haven’t been finishing. Maybe this weekend can change that, but I doubt it.

Score Prediction: Amherst 92 – Colby 81

Saturday

Bowdoin (11-5, 2-2) @ #19 Amherst (13-2, 2-1)

After facing Colby on Friday the Mammoths with play host to another Maine team in Bowdoin. So far this year it seems as if Bowdoin has taken the “gimme” wins in the NESCAC of Bates and Colby, although they were barely able to hang onto their win against the Mules. I actually think that Bowdoin has a really strong starting 5, or at least core 3, and am surprised that they weren’t able to find success against teams like Tufts and Trinity. Those wins could have been huge for the Polar Bears but they couldn’t pull them out and now they need to look in harder places to find wins, harder places like Amherst, Mass. As I just talked about Amherst in the last paragraph you know how I feel about their team. They are solid and well balanced and can compete with anyone in the NESCAC. I don’t see them losing this game either but I think Bowdoin might give them a little scare that they weren’t expecting.

Score Prediction: Amherst 88 – Bowdoin 83

#25 Wesleyan (14-4, 4-1) @ Tufts (8-10, 2-3)

It’ll be a big weekend for Antone Walker and the Cardinals who are riding a 6-game win streak

Wesleyan drew the short straw this week, having to trek all the way up to Maine on Friday and then all the way to Massachusetts on Saturday. I hope that bus is comfy because those boys will be spending around 8 hours on it over a short 2 day period. Although the travel may pose some problems for the Cardinals, their opponents are less of a problem. Tufts’ loss to Bates put their abilities more into perspective. They are not the team they once were and are now struggling to maintain a middle-of-the-pack status in the conference. While Tufts has been falling behind Wesleyan has been catching up to the top of the conference at a rapid rate. Purely based on momentum this should be Wesleyan’s game.

Score Prediction: Wesleyan 86 – Tufts 71

Connecticut College (6-11, 0-5) @ Bates (5-12, 2-3)

Despite their decent NESCAC record, I don’t remember the last time that Bates was favored in a conference matchup. For Bobcat fans, today is your lucky day. Bates has proved that they are a gritty team who can play up to the level of their opponents, even against much stronger opponents. Conn has had many opportunities to surprise us and pull off an upset but they have never seized it and there’s just not too much to say about them. Bates, on the other hand, has the opportunity to sneak up the conference standing by taking a fairly easy game from one of the only teams that they may have an edge on. I wouldn’t expect this to be a quality basketball game as far as NESCAC basketball goes, but a win will be huge for either team that walks away victorious.

Score Prediction: Bates 74 – Conn 68

Colby (12-5, 1-3) @ #6 Hamilton (15-1, 2-1)

Michael Grassey will have to help lead the way for the Continentals

Hamilton has a pretty simple weekend ahead of them, two home games against two Maine teams that, on paper, they are far superior than. The Continentals have the most consistent starting 5 of anyone in the conference. All 5 of their starters have started every single game that they’ve had this season. That makes it clear that Hamilton has a strong gameplan that they are confident in and clearly they have been executing it well. Colby, much like Wesleyan, have a tough travel schedule this weekend as well as a tough schedule of opponents. When looking at all outside conditions it looks like Hamilton has a huge advantage well before the jump. When looking at all on-court factors, Hamilton wins big again. If Colby wins this game it will be through pure grit and lights out 3-point shooting. If Hamilton wins, it will be because they should.

Score Prediction: Hamilton 91 – Colby 80

Trinity (13-5, 2-2) @ Middlebury (14-5, 3-2)

Our final game of the weekend comes from Middlebury and Trinity. Midd id coming off of a lot of rest time for this game and they also have home court advantage. Trinity will have faced an elite Williams team in Massachusetts and then have to go to Vermont and have to face a ready-to-go Panthers squad. Midd should go into this game with heaps of confidence as the last time that they played a game was taking down formerly undefeated Williams last weekend. Although Trinity has a 4-game win streak heading into the weekend, it is more likely than not that that streak will be broken before they even reach Vermont.

Score Prediction: Midd 82 – Trinity 75

Changing of the Guard: Power Rankings 1/24

Power Rankings 1/24

As the title of this week’s Power Rankings suggests, Williams has been ousted from the top spot, something they’ve held for quite some time. If I’m being completely honest, any of the top four teams in this week’s edition of the power rankings has a legitimate case to be ranked number one, and that’s what makes this league so exciting. The chaos from top to bottom surrounding the league’s potential seeding makes every game a must-watch, and with some incredibly important conference games set to take place this weekend, hopefully we’ll get a more clear picture of where teams stand. Or, maybe it’ll be even more chaotic. There’s only one way to find out.

(2) 1. #25 Wesleyan (14-4, 4-1)

Last Week: W 78-70 @ Conn College

This Week: @ Bates, @ Tufts

After going back-and-forth, I’ve decided to stick with the hot hand that is Wesleyan. Since falling to Williams in their conference opener, the Cardinals have rattled off six consecutive wins. Their 4-1 mark in conference play is very impressive and because their conference schedule was front-loaded with teams such as Williams, Hamilton and Middlebury, the Cardinals have one of the league’s easiest remaining schedules. Wesleyan has cemented themselves as a force to be reckoned with; the question that remains, however, is can they beat the teams they’re supposed to beat? The first “test” came Saturday in New London, where the Cardinals staved off a frantic Camels comeback to secure a 78-70 victory. Everything was fine and dandy in the first half as Wesleyan jumped out to a 47-29 lead; the second half was a completely different story, as the Camels went on a 12-0 run to open things up and eventually cut the lead to five with a minute remaining before Wesleyan ended their hopes with some clutch free throw shooting. Austin Hutcherson ‘21 struggled from the field, but Jordan Bonner ‘19 carried the Cardinals with 24 points to go along with 10 rebounds, his 9th double-double of the year. Up next for the Cardinals is a feisty Bates squad before heading down to Medford to take on the Jumbos.

(4) 2. #19 Amherst (14-2, 2-1)

Last Week: postponed @ Hamilton

This Week: vs. Colby, vs. Bowdoin

*From the Nothing But NESCAC Community, our thoughts and prayers go out to Coach Hixon and his family regarding the passing of his mother this past week.

Amherst has quietly been lurking in the background amongst the perennial conference front-runners, but made their presence known with a marquee victory over bitter rival Williams. The Mammoths clawed their way back from an eleven point deficit in the second half, taking the lead with three minutes remaining on a Fru Che ‘21 three pointer. Che ended up scoring the game-winning shot with eight seconds to play to cap an emotional week for the Mammoths, who were without Coach Hixon for the first time in nearly 42 years. Amherst’s defense has been superb in conference play (59 ppg) and held Williams to just 35.8% from the field. This is a deep squad that consists of 11 players averaging 10 min/game or more, and their only conference loss was on the road at Wesleyan on a shot with seconds left. A convincing non-conference victory over a ranked Eastern Connecticut squad will have the team’s confidence sky high as they look to continue their winning ways with home games against Colby and Bowdoin this upcoming weekend.

(1) 3. #8 Williams (16-2, 4-1)

What’s wrong with Williams’ big 3? The trio will need to fix their offensive woes

Last Week: L 80-66 vs. Middlebury

This Week: vs. Trinity

The warning signs were there in their win against Bates, but many people shrugged off the Ephs’ sluggish performance. Their offensive woes continued in their non-conference loss to rival Amherst, but even more painful was a second consecutive loss at home to Middlebury. Some might say dropping Williams to #3 might be harsh, but their coaching staff and players will be the first to tell you they expect better execution than what’s been presented the past few games. This is a team that was averaging well over 85 ppg, but in their last three games against NESCAC opponents has mustered up 75, 62, and 66 points. In their loss to Middlebury, Williams shot an abysmal 2-20 from beyond the arc; Bobby Casey ‘19 was just 1-7 from three, and Kyle Scadlock ‘19 (13.8 ppg) was a non-factor, scoring three points. James Heskett, a normally deadly three point shooter, was a combined 3-24 from downtown in their most recent games against Bates, Amherst and Middlebury. Williams is still talented enough to win if one of the three has an off night, but they need more consistent production from their trio of stars in order to right the ship and fix their offensive woes. Next on tap are the Bantams, who’s defensive statistics are in the top half of all NESCAC teams.

(3) 4. #6 Hamilton (15-1, 2-1)

Last Week: postponed vs. Amherst

This Week: vs. Bowdoin, vs. Colby

Hamilton was supposed to play Amherst on Saturday, but extreme weather conditions postponed the game to a later date. With no non-conference games during the week, Hamilton will have gone ten days without a game when they welcome Bowdoin to campus on Friday. Kena Gilmour ‘20 continues to dazzle for the Continentals, leading the ‘CAC with 20.4 ppg. Like the three teams ranked ahead of them, Hamilton still controls their own destiny in regards to seizing the regular season championship. However, their final two games are absolutely brutal, with road trips to Middlebury and Williams back-to-back and the rescheduled home meeting with Amherst penciled in somewhere near the back portion of the schedule. But before we look too far ahead, Gilmour and co. must take care of business against Bowdoin and Colby – two teams that have no trouble shooting the rock – in order to keep pace with the rest of the league.

(5) 5. Middlebury (14-5, 3-2)

Last Week: W 80-66 @ Williams

This Week: vs. Trinity

I guess the Panthers read my stock report last week, because their defense came to play this past weekend against Williams. Middlebury did everything right: they only turned the ball over eight times (and forced thirteen turnovers of their own), shot 46% from the field while holding the Ephs to just 36.2% (including 10% from three) and converted 86.7% of their free throw attempts. Jack Farrell ‘21, Max Bosco ‘21 and Matt Folger ‘20 continued to set the nets ablaze, accounting for 59 points. Their next stretch of games is an opportunity for the Panthers to separate themselves from the likes of Bowdoin, Trinity, Bates, etc. and secure (at worst) the 5th seed for the conference championship. Middlebury can build off their phenomenal defensive performance when they face Trinity on Sunday, the worst offensive team in the NESCAC.

(6) 6. Trinity (13-5, 2-2)

Last Week: Non-conference

This Week: @ Williams, @ Middlebury

The Bantams were off from NESCAC play this past weekend, where they stomped St. Joseph’s (L.I.) by a score of 92-38. Connor Merinder ‘19 led the way with 21 points and shot 5-6 from beyond the arc, and Trinity shot a season-high 61.8% from the field. The fun will be short-lived, however, because Coach Cosgrove and his squad have two conference games on the road this week that will really test their defensive prowess. First up is a Friday matchup with Williams, a team that is struggling on the offensive end but given their plethora of talent, can erupt at any moment. After a day off, the Bantams will have another go against a top five team, this time against Middlebury. It’s a matchup of contrasting styles, as Middlebury likes to bomb away from deep and can score at will, while the Bantams prefer to grind down their opponents on the defensive end. This game in particular is crucial for the Bantams in order to prove they belong in the discussion for a top six seed come tourney time.

(8) 7. Bowdoin (11-5, 2-2)

Last Week: W 72-69 @ Colby

This Week: @ Hamilton, @ Amherst

The Polar Bears avenged their non-conference loss to Colby earlier in the year with a 72-69 victory up in Waterville. David Reynolds ‘20 was once again the go-to-guy for Bowdoin, as the junior finished with 24 points and 8 rebounds. Jack Simonds ‘19 also had a nice game, tallying 18 points, and big man Hugh O’Neil ‘19 hit the go-ahead shot with 38 seconds remaining. It was a big win for the Polar Bears, who improved to .500 in conference play and into a tie with Trinity and half a game behind Middlebury in the conference standings. Road trips with Hamilton and Amherst certainly doesn’t bode well on paper, but if the duo of Reynolds and Simonds continues to put up lofty scoring numbers, they just might have a chance to spring an upset or two away from home.

(10) 8. Bates (5-12, 2-3)

Kody Greenhalgh ‘20 puts his athleticism on full display, driving to the hole for a layup

Last Week: W 76-65 vs. Tufts

This Week: vs. Wesleyan, vs. Conn

After two close contests against Williams and Midd, the Bobcats finally picked up a conference win on their own floor against the Jumbos by a score of 76-65. Nick Lynch ‘19 scored 20 of his 22 points in the first half and juniors Jeff Spellman ‘20 (16 points, 8 rebounds, 7 assists) and Kody Greenhalgh ‘20 (14 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, 5 steals) were extremely active on both sides of the court.  The return of Tom Coyne ‘20 has been monumental for the Bobcats, and the sniper from long range turned in another impressive performance with 18 off the bench. The defense has played significantly better since allowing 100 to Middlebury, forcing 17 turnovers against Tufts and holding them to just 34.8% from the field. This team is peaking at the right time, and welcomes both the best team in the conference and the worst team to Alumni Gym this weekend. Saturday’s tilt with Conn is an absolute must win if the Bobcats want to secure a spot in the conference tournament, but they most certainly have a chance to knock off the Cardinals. It’s going to be an extremely exciting weekend for Bobcat fans.

(7) 9. Tufts (8-10, 2-3)

Last Week: L 76-65 @ Bates

This Week: vs. Conn, vs. Wesleyan

If the Jumbos defeated Bates, they more than likely would have solidified a place in the conference tournament barring a collapse down the stretch. Instead, they’re on the outside looking in. Luke Rogers ‘21 (18 points, 10 rebounds) was the only bright spot for a team that struggled to shoot the ball on Saturday, and the big man will be a thorn for opposing teams in the years to come. The starting five combined to shoot a paltry 3-18 from three, and as a team the Jumbos struggled mightily from the charity stripe (52.6%). They have the inverse schedule of Bates this weekend, with Conn first up to visit Medford on Friday followed by Wesleyan. Similar to the Bobcats, the Jumbos cannot afford to trip up against a Conn squad that did show some fight against Wesleyan, as a loss would all but doom their hopes of making the postseason dance.

(9) 10. Colby (13-5, 1-3)

Last Week: L 72-69 vs. Bowdoin

This Week: @ Amherst, @ Hamilton

The game between Bowdoin and Colby presented huge ramifications regarding the playoff picture, and the loss pushes the Mules towards the bottom of the league’s standings. Four of Colby’s starters (led by Sam Jefferson ‘20) finished with double digits in the scoring department, but they got very little production from their bench. The shiny overall record Colby experienced to the 2018-2019 season was inflated by a weak non-conference schedule, and it’s beginning to show. With just one win in conference play to date and remaining games against all of the league’s top five teams (starting with road games against Amherst and Hamilton this weekend), all of this doesn’t bode well for Colby’s playoff chances.

(11) 11. Conn College (6-11, 0-5)

David Labossiere has been one of the few bright spots for the Camels this season

Last Week: L 78-70 vs. Wesleyan

This Week: @ Tufts, @ Bates

The Camels are once again struggling in conference play, but I’ll give them credit for fighting back against Wesleyan this past weekend. The Cardinals came out and punched Conn in the mouth, taking an 18 point lead into the half. David Labossiere ‘19 and Dan Draffan ‘21 willed their team back in the second half, and the two leading scorers finally received some additional help on the offensive end from Phil Leotsakos ‘19, who finished with a career-high 16 points. Although this performance wasn’t enough to produce a win, the Camels should feel more confident about their chances against Tufts and Bates, two teams who aren’t as strong as Wesleyan. Road games in the ‘CAC are tough to win, and Conn hasn’t won a league road game since the 2016-2017 season; but if the Camels replicate their performance against Wesleyan (most importantly having a third solid scoring option), then they might just shock the NESCAC with a win this weekend.

Even the Mighty Fall: Stock Report 1/23

Stock Report 1/23

Stock up

Potential end-of-season drama

Right when it was starting to look like no one would beat Williams, they lost. Then, they lost again. Now the best record in the NESCAC belongs to none other than the Hamilton Continentals, while Wesleyan shares the top spot in the conference standings with the Ephs (although Williams does hold the head-to-head tiebreaker). Additionally, the Amherst vs. Hamilton game that was supposed to happen this past weekend was postponed due to the snowstorm. That game will surely have playoff seeding implications given that these two teams are at the top of the conference, and the fact that it’s being rescheduled later in the season will add even more excitement to what was already going be a very exciting finish to the year. Everyone in the league except for Conn has picked up a conference win, and everyone except for Colby and Conn have two, so it’s exciting to see a little bit of parity between the teams (especially coming on the heels of football season). We’re looking at yet another terrific year for NESCAC basketball.

Bates’ playoff chances

It’s no secret that non-conference play was a disaster for the Bobcats, but they’ve looked like a completely different team in the New Year. The win at Colby was a promising way to start, and then Bates put up two valiant efforts against some of the league’s best teams in Williams and Middlebury but came away empty-handed. Beating Tufts for the 3rd straight year (and 4th time in 5 years) was nothing short of a statement win. The Jumbos haven’t had the best season ever, but they’ve already recorded wins over Middlebury and Bowdoin – two of the teams that defeated Bates. Tom Coyne ’20 has been a huge part of the turn around as he returned from a shoulder injury with a very hot hand. The junior put up 18 points off the bench on 6-12 shooting including 3-7 from downtown against the Jumbos, his third consecutive 17+ point game. The first half on Saturday was all about Nick Lynch ’19 as he scored 20 of his game-high 22 points thanks to a barrage of midrange jump shots. Kody Greenhalgh ’20 also turned in a very fine effort, posting 14 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, and 5 steals. The Bobcats may have started the season on a sour note, but they’re playing well when it counts so don’t count them out of the postseason just yet.

Middlebury as a title contender

Max Bosco is playing his way out of contention for our 6th Man of the Year award

Definitely the best way to secure a spot in the “stock up” column is to take down the top team in the league, and the Panthers did just that on Saturday with a convincing 80-66 win over Williams. Jack Farrell ’21 led the way with 24 points on a very efficient 9-14 from the field, and he also dished out 5 assists. An important thing to note for Middlebury is that Coach Brown recently decided to insert Max Bosco ’21 into the starting lineup in place of Griffin Kornaker ’21, and it has paid dividends. Bosco put up 21 points in his first game as a starter, and then put forth an 18-point, 6-rebound effort in the win against Williams. This is the type of spark the Panthers were looking for as they’re now looking like one of the scarier teams in the conference. The loss to Tufts hurts but other than that Middlebury has a nice looking resume and adding a win over Williams certainly doesn’t look too shabby either. They’ve got Trinity, Bowdoin, and Colby in the near future, so it’s a good time for the Panthers to snag a few more wins before they have to finish the year with two of the very best – Hamilton and Amherst.

Stock down

Colby in close games

The Mules have been off to a great start, but something that stands out as a real area where they have struggled is playing close games. Colby has shown an inability to win close games, especially when it counts. They’re 3-5 this year in games decided by 10 points or less and 1-3 in one possession games. These aren’t great numbers from a team who wants to be making an impression on the rest of the league. It’s especially frustrating when two of those close losses came to Bates and Bowdoin in conference play, both teams that the Mules defeated in their non-conference matchups. Winning close games more often than not comes from a combination of coaching and player maturity. Coach Strahorn is doing an excellent job so we know that isn’t the issue; the reason they have struggled so much down the stretch is that Colby only has one senior on their roster and he isn’t one of the guys who would be handling the ball at the end of a close game. They’ve got talent on their team, but the guys are young – they need these experiences in tight matchups to continue learning for the future. This will serve them very well in one, two, three years from now when they’ve got a team full of players who have been there time and time again. For now they’ll have to try and claw (hoof?) their way in it with what they’ve got.

Note: I wrote this before Colby’s 101-98 victory over Husson on Tuesday, so it looks like they’re already starting to turn things around.

Williams’ depth

Mickey Babek will have to step up if Williams is going to make a run

There’s no way the Ephs weren’t falling in the “stock down” column after suffering their first two losses of their year to Amherst and Middlebury, respectively. They’re fortunate that the Amherst game was technically a non-conference affair and that they get another crack at the Mammoths at the end of the year. Either way, Williams isn’t all high and mighty like they were before. In the loss to Amherst they had 16 points off the bench and against Middlebury it was a mere 3. Literally only 3 points. This is not characteristic of a team that wants to compete in the NESCAC even, let alone on a national scale. They need more production from guys off the bench like Mickey Babek ’20, Marcus Soto ’19, and Marc Taylor ’21, each of whom have the capability of hitting shots and playing a bigger role. As I like to say, no reason to panic for the Ephs. They’re still very much in the driver’s seat and with Trinity, Colby, and Bowdoin on the horizon they’ve got a very nice chance to stay on top.

Starsky and Hutch(erson) Solve the Case of NESCAC Teams: 1/19 Game of the Week

Game of the Week Preview

A week changes a lot in college basketball. Prior to last Friday, both Amherst and Hamilton were riding high with undefeated conference records. Hamilton was ranked top ten in the nation. Both teams, however, got “Hutcherson’ed”. Wesleyan’s sophomore superstar Austin Hutcherson unleashed himself at the expense of Hamilton and Amherst. Hutcherson put up thirty-two against Hamilton, and beat Amherst the next day on a game winner. Sound familiar, Amherst fans? If not, refer back to Nathan Krill’s, of Wesleyan, shot against you guys last season to send you guys home. Wesleyan, therefore, has shot up the power rankings—showing the league that it’s Williams and Wesleyan at one and two. As of right now, the third position in the conference is up for grabs.

Michael Grassey needs to step up this weekend as a reliable second option to Gilmour

Amherst and Hamilton are led by veteran coaches, who know how to make critical decisions down the stretch. Who will step up in the clutch? Hamilton star Kena Gilmour only put up fifteen against the Cardinals. In a big game like that, I predicted that he would match Hutcherson bucket for bucket. As the game progressed, though, Hutcherson showed that he and the big man from Williams are the two prime contenders for league MVP. As for Amherst, Grant Robinson’s must be getting close to a herniated disk in his lower back. He has carried Amherst all season long in the scoring department. The early season loss for is beneficial for both teams in my opinion. These are talented teams, but in order to be the best in an ultra competitive conference, they must address their weaknesses no matter how small they are. If a team’s winning, it’s easy to sweep under the rug a weakness that may not be visible. Getting hit in the mouth, in contrast, will always force you to look yourself in the mirror, and immediately address areas to improve.

X-Factors:

Hamilton: Kena Gilmour

Gilmour is one of the most talented, creative scorers in the league. While Hutcherson may have shown up Gilmour last Friday, I don’t doubt that the game was an anomaly for him. Gilmour can flat out score whether it be on the perimeter, slashing, or in transition. He still leads the league in points per game, albeit only by 0.1 over Hutcherson. What I believed bothered Gilmour last Friday was Wesleyan’s defense. Wesleyan’s Coach Reilly has always been known to put an extremely athletic team on the floor. Switching on all screens is something that Wesleyan can do because one through five can guard the opponent’s one through five. I still remember the 2017 Eastern Conference Finals where it seemed like 5’ 9” Isaiah Thomas would switch onto Kevin Love in the post, or concrete-footed Kelly Olynyk would get switched onto Kyrie Irving at the point. Brad Stevens, no matter how smart he looked, seemed to get played by Ty Lue (ironic, right)? Nevertheless, Amherst couldn’t exploit the switch-happy Cardinals. Gilmour had to deal with a longer Hutcherson or the wingspan of Jordan James. That game was the first test of the season for Hamilton. They lost to a very comparable Wesleyan team. Amherst will be no less talented than Wesleyan. Amherst has great coaching and talented players; they may not have Wesleyan’s athleticism, but they play great individual defense. Gilmour has to explode for at least twenty to win it for Hamilton.

Amherst: Grant Robinson

As stated in the introduction, Grant Robinson has been carrying Amherst offensively all season long. Robinson averages about fifteen points per game. None of his teammates are close to him in scoring. Robinson also shoots the ball at an efficient percentage, shooting at almost fifty percent per game. Robinson’s efficient not only in the field, but at the line as well. He shoots at 93% from the line, which is Steve Nash like numbers. He also leads the league in steals. Robinson can’t do it alone, but I picked him over his other teammates because he must score to give his team a shot at winning. Sure Eric Sellew or Fru Che could go off for fifteen or twenty points a piece. A counterpoint to that argument is the following: as seen in the Wesleyan game, all the attention has to be on Robinson to get those guys going. If Robinson’s having an off night, the defensive scheme against Amherst could be switched to giving Sellew or Che more attention. There’s no way these guys have the offense, even combined, to carry Amherst to victory without a strong showing from Robinson. As seen all year, Grant Robinson has to be the guy in order for Amherst to come away with a win.

Final thoughts:

Both teams are at critical junctures of their seasons. Winning the league title is not over by any means. Wesleyan simply woke them up. Stars didn’t perform down the stretch for Hamilton; Amherst has relied too heavily on one player. I give the edge to Hamilton here because your best player having an off night against one of the best defenses in the country is more easily treated than relying on one guy to score every possession. I’m going Hamilton in this one.

Writer’s Pick: Hamilton 73, Amherst 70

The Mighty Can Fall: 1/18 Weekend Preview

NESCAC Basketball Weekend Preview

Tufts (8-9, 2-2) @ Bates (4-12, 1-3)

The Jumbos come into this weekend’s contest feeling good after a solid win over a very good Middlebury team. They were able to come from behind and take down the Panthers with help from Luke Rogers (16 pts, 9 reb) and lots of help off the bench from Carson Cohen (15/6/4). Coming up to Maine to face the Bobcats more than likely won’t intimidate this Tufts squad. While Bates’ record holds a lot to be desired, when you look closer at their last 2 games you can see that they’ve been putting up a fight against some very talented teams. They took #3 Williams down to the wire and got handed an impressive 7-point loss and against Midd they were also able to stay within single digits. Despite all this I’m still not convinced that the Bobcats have turned a corner.

Score Prediction: Tufts 89 – Bates 77

Middlebury (13-5, 2-2) @ #3 Williams (15-0, 4-0)

Folger has quietly been having a very solid year

Middlebury will have a tough task ahead of them, heading down to Williamstown and attempting to take down elite but recently defeated Williams team. Midd’s season has been a roller coaster thus far, going up and down with wins and losses. They split their two NESCAC contests last weekend against Bates and Tufts and then they split their midweek games too. The most consistency that the Panthers have seen is from Jack Farrell and Matt Folger. These two have near identical numbers on the season, Farrell is averaging 15.9 /5.1/ 4.4 while Folger is averaging 15.6/9.2/1.1. Whether or not these two can handle this Williams squad is yet to be determined. Williams has kept rolling all season but had a peculiar loss in the biggest trap game of all time against Amherst this past Wednesday. They breezed through their first 15 games of the season, but lost to Amherst in a bizarre non-conference matchup this week by one point, having the worst shooting performance that we will likely ever see from them. Praising Williams is just beating a dead horse at this point, we all know that they’re elite and could win every game until the last rounds of NCAAs. Now that somebody has finally beaten them there will be a lot more to talk about.

Score Prediction: #3 Williams 86 – Midd 63

Wesleyan (11-4, 3-1) @ Connecticut College (6-10, 0-4)

To understand how Wesleyan is playing right now you just have to look at the last three games they’ve played. Game #1: Win over (then) #24 Midd. Game #2: Win over #7 Hamilton. Game #3: Win over (then) #24 Amherst. After taking down three straight ranked opponents, I don’t think the Cardinals are going to be scared to face Conn. Part of the reason for Wesleyan’s success of late has been due to Austin Hutcherson. In the first two of those three games Hutcherson went off, dropping 36 and 32 points respectively. If Hutcherson can turn it on again this weekend there won’t be a Camel who can stop him. Conn has really been thrown into the fire in terms of NESCAC play. Their first 6 games are against the 6 best NESCAC teams. It is going to be a tough task for Conn to pull out a win over any of the first 6 NESCAC teams they play and an 0-6 record going into game 7 is a tough look. There have any been 4 games but it seems as if this year may already be over for Conn.

Score Prediction: Wesleyan 89 – Conn 69

Bowdoin (9-5, 1-2) @ Colby (12-4, 1-2)

Sam Jefferson will have to continue to lead the way for the Mules

The battle for the frozen tundra occurs this weekend in Waterville as Colby hosts Bowdoin. This has all the makings of an interesting game. To start it off, both teams are 1-2 in league. Bowdoin’s win came over Bates, who Colby lost to. Colby’s win came over Tufts, who Bowdoin lost to. There doesn’t seem to be a whole lot to separate these two on paper. Both teams have a solid core of starters with some quality bench players that can come on and make an impact. In their preseason meeting Colby was able to take down Bowdoin 83-70. While this may seem like a solid indicator of how this game may turn out, that is not necessarily true. When Colby faced Bates in the preseason they were able to beat them easily, but in conference they couldn’t get the job done. All in all, this game has all the makings of a classic.

Score Prediction: Colby 92 – Bowdoin 88

It’s Always a Mystery: Power Rankings 1/17

Power Rankings 1/17

We’re now in the thick of things as each team has played 3 or 4 NESCAC games, and there is absolutely no more clarity in the rankings than we had last week. This conference is tough, and everybody just seems to be beating everybody. Even Williams is no longer unbeaten (continue reading to find out more). The Ephs still remain the league’s top team and they stand alone now that Hamilton has taken a conference defeat. Next week will give us some more marquee matchups and maybe next week the rankings will somehow be easier to write. Probably not, and that’s what makes it fun. For now let’s see where everyone falls in the mid-January rankings:

(1) 1. #3 Williams (15-1, 4-0)

Last week: W 85-61 @ Tufts, W 75-69 @ Bates

This week: vs. Middlebury

It wasn’t pretty at times, but Williams is still every bit deserving of their top spot in the rankings. After an impressive team effort in a blowout victory on Friday, the Ephs faced a bit more adversity in their matchup with Bates in Lewiston. The Bobcats led by as many as 14 in the first half and it remained close right up until the very end. The Ephs looked visibly uncomfortable against Bates’ 1-3-1 zone, uncharacteristically turning the ball over on several occasions. It took some hot shooting by Bobby Casey ’19 and a few critical plays by Kyle Scadlock ’19 to secure the victory for Williams. The ability to win games in which they aren’t playing their best has really set this Eph team apart through the first half of the season, and it was very much on display against the Bobcats. Williams actually took their first loss of the season on Thursday night in a non-conference matchup with Amherst, so maybe things aren’t as pretty as they seem in Williamstown. A huge matchup looms on Saturday when the Middlebury College Panthers come to town to try and hand Williams their second consecutive loss so stay tuned for the result this weekend in Western Mass.

(4) 2. Wesleyan (11-4, 3-1)

Last week: W 73-69 vs. Hamilton, W 62-60 vs. Amherst

This week: @ Conn College

Austin Hutcherson is slowly becoming “the man” in Middletown

It’s no secret why the Cardinals worked their way up to the 2 spot in this week’s rankings. After knocking off no. 6 nationally ranked Hamilton for the first time, Wesleyan turned around and gave Amherst their first conference loss of the year – just their second over all. This weekend was the Austin Hutcherson show: against Hamilton on Friday the sophomore dropped 32 points on 9-19 shooting, including 9-10 from the free throw line. He absolutely took over the game, scoring 24 points in the last 20 minutes and scored 12 in a row at the very end, sealing the win for the Cardinals. The very next day Hutcherson took an inbounds pass with 11 seconds to go in a tie game, drove the length of the court, and banked in a game-winner with 3 seconds remaining to defeat the Mammoths. Wesleyan made a statement this weekend that not only can they compete with anyone, but they have the star power to do some real damage in this league. Conn College won’t do much to get in the way of this machine, so look for the Cardinals to put another one in the win column this weekend.

(2) 3. #7 Hamilton (15-1, 2-1)

Last week: L 73-69 @ Wesleyan, W 91-46 @ Conn College

This week: vs. Amherst

They had to lose eventually and I suppose eventually for the Continentals was last Friday in Middletown. Wesleyan was the better team that night, carried by Austin Hutcherson and Jordan Bonner. Hutcherson won the star battle with his 32 points, as Kena Gilmour ’20 scored only 15 points, while grabbing 2 rebounds and dishing out 2 assists. Obviously he can’t put up insane numbers every single night, but no one besides Gilmour and Michael Grassey ’19 (20 points) could get into double figures and the rest of the team was very cold shooting the ball the entire game. The good thing was that Hamilton bounced back on Saturday and demolished Conn College by a score of 91-46. This is a powerful way to respond after suffering your first loss of the season, so my guess is that the Continentals aren’t going anywhere. They’ve got another huge chance to prove themselves when they host an Amherst team this weekend who is also looking to rebound after a loss. I’m sure we’ll be in for an exciting matchup from New York.

(3) 4. Amherst (13-2, 2-1)

Last week: W 88-60 @ Conn College, L 62-60 @ Wesleyan

This week: @ Hamilton

The Mammoths are in the exact same position as the Continentals coming out of the weekend. They were off to a tremendous start, lost a tough game to Wesleyan, and now have to come back and play another tough team who’s in the same spot. Grant Robinson ’21 continues to impress, posting 18 points on Friday and 21 on Saturday while nearly draining a three-pointer for the win in the final seconds of the Wesleyan game. The only apparent problem for the Mammoths is that Robinson isn’t getting a lot of help right now. He’s averaging 15.1 points per game (19.3 in conference play) and his teammates haven’t been able to support him as much as Coach Hixon would like. In the loss at Wesleyan, Robinson had 21 and there actually were double-digit efforts from Fru Che ’21 and Eric Sellew ’20 who had 13 and 11, respectively. The problem was that is took them both at least 14 shots to get there, so not very efficient. I’ll say the same for Amherst as I said for Hamilton – they have nothing to worry about and they’re still in a comfortable position, but this should serve as a wake up call. This Saturday is a big one.

(5) 5. Middlebury (13-5, 2-2)

Last week: W 100-93 @ Bates, L 86-84 @ Tufts

This week: @ Williams

Max Bosco has been playing really well as of late, and even worked his way into the starting lineup in their mid-week game

What a tough way to end the weekend for the Panthers who really hoped to go 2-0 against the likes of Bates and Tufts. It took a bit of late-game magic for the Jumbos who picked up a huge win at home. Again, no reason to panic yet in Vermont – Tufts is a good team and it’s still very early. In the game against Bates the Panthers were forced to deal with the same 1-3-1 zone that stifled Williams at times, but they shot the Bobcats out of the gym. The game was relatively close the whole way, but Middlebury led pretty much start to finish. It really felt like every time Bates would get the game a little bit closer they’d hit another big shot to keep the Bobcats at bay. Max Bosco had a huge weekend, dropping 28 on Bates and 17 on Tufts, while shooting 50% from the field. He has a very crafty nature and can beat you in a variety of ways – one of which is taking it hard to the basket and often getting fouled. In fact, he got to the line quite a bit over the weekend hitting 14 of his 17 free throws, good for 82%. Midd will take a trip down to western matchup for an enormous matchup at Williams on Saturday so keep your eyes on the score from that one.

(9) 6. Trinity (12-5, 2-2)

Last week: W 66-56 vs. Bowdoin, W 62-60 vs. Colby

This week: non-conference

I have to admit; I was a little down on Trinity early in the year and even after their close game with Hamilton, but this weekend they definitely proved something. Colby and Bowdoin aren’t traditionally the top teams in the NESCAC, but they’re having very good seasons and had played well recently. Winning close games in this conference is no small task, and the Bantams won two of them in a single weekend. Kyle Padmore ’20 led the charge on Friday, netting 20 points on 8 of 12 shooting, grabbing 7 rebounds, and even blocking 4 shots. The hero on Saturday was freshman Anthony Kelley ’22 who caught the inbounds pass and took the ball coast to coast, laying it in with 3.5 seconds on the clock to win the game for the Bantams. That basked accounted for 2 of just 4 points for Kelley on the afternoon, but they were certainly the biggest. Donald Jorden, Jr. ’21 has slowly been making a name for himself as he posted 26 points and 19 rebounds on the weekend, continuing to play really good basketball all season. Trinity is idle this weekend as far as conference play goes, but they’ve got big games coming in the near future with Williams, Middlebury, and Wesleyan, so there’s no question that they have some preparing to do.

(8) 7. Tufts (8-9, 2-2)

Last week: L 85-61 vs. Williams, W 86-84 vs. Middlebury

This week: @ Bates

The loss against Williams was tough, but I’d say this was a fairly successful weekend for the Jumbos. They had 5 guys score between 14 and 17 points against Middlebury, but it was Brennan Morris ’21 who stole the show, hitting a fade away baseline jumper with just a few seconds left to win it. Those were 2 of Morris’ team-high 17 points in the contest, but it was a true team effort in the win. Eric Savage ’20 and Luke Rogers ’21 turned in really the only significant performances in the big loss against Williams. Savage scored 16 points and handed out 6 assists while Rogers recorded a double double with 10 points and 12 rebounds. Tufts has been a bit of a wild card thus far, struggling at times in non-conference play but picking up a couple of impressive wins in Bowdoin and Middlebury when conference play started. They sit at 2-2 and they’ll travel to Lewiston on Saturday to take on a streaky Bates squad. A win puts them at 3-2 and in a great spot in the standings, but the Bobcats have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between the two teams so it’s certainly not a matchup to take lightly.

(6) 8. Bowdoin (9-5, 1-2)

Last week: L 66-56 @ Trinity

This week: @ Colby

The loss to Trinity is a bummer for the Polar Bears who surely had their hopes a little higher for this one. The Bantams played terrific defense, holding Bowdoin to just 34.4% from the field on the day. Moving forward they’re going to need more from their stars, David Reynolds ’20 and Jack Simonds ’19. These guys combined for 14 points and 9 rebounds, and that’s not going to win you a tough conference game on the road. Zavier Rucker ’21 had the best game scoring 14 points of his own, but really no one stepped up for the Polar Bears and they drop to 1-2 in conference play. It seems like if Simonds and Reynolds don’t play well then they lose, because no one else has stepped up this season in the scoring column aside from Rucker at times. They’ve got an important game on Saturday with Colby in what is essentially a must-win game if Bowdoin wants to stay in the race to potentially host a first round NESCAC tournament game. Colby won their first meeting 83-70 when they faced off in a non-conference CBB game, so some adjustments are going to be necessary if the Polar Bears want to have a chance this weekend.

(7) 9. Colby (12-4, 1-2)

Last week: L 62-60 @ Trinity

This week: vs. Bowdoin

It seems that many teams are in the same spot heading into their 4th/5thconference games because Colby could use a bounce back. They started conference play well by defeating Tufts, but they’ve dropped games to Bates and now Trinity since then, so things seem a bit shakier. Alex Dorion ’20 put together a notable effort off the bench, dropping 17 points that included 4 of his 6 3-point attempts. I’ve obviously pointed it out enough at this point, but the NESCAC is a star-driven league and Sam Jefferson ’20, Matt Hanna ’21, and Noah Tyson ’22 weren’t their usual selves against the Bantams. These guys have led the team in scoring and rebounding all year and they couldn’t really produce against a tough Trinity defense. The Bowdoin game this weekend will be very telling because the Mules have already defeated them once so they certainly know what it takes. They beat Bates in their first meeting but lost in the conference matchup so Colby really can’t afford to let this happen again. At this point only time will tell.

(11) 10. Bates (4-12, 1-3)

Last week: L 100-93 vs. Middlebury, L 75-69 vs. Williams

This week: vs. Tufts

Tom Coyne has had the hot had off the bench recently

Bates lost two games this weekend, but it definitely wasn’t all negatives in the two games. The Bobcats introduced a new 1-3-1 zone that they used on Middlebury and Williams and it gave us a few different results. Middlebury shot the ball incredibly well – in fact they shot a higher percentage from behind the three-point line than they did in front of it. The zone was a sneaky look, but the Panthers simply shot too well to lose this game. Nick Lynch ’19 had one of the quieter 25-point games I’ve ever seen, but along with 11 rebounds he had himself a pretty nice looking double double. On Saturday the defensive ploy worked a bit better, confusing the Ephs and giving the Bobcats a number of fast break layups. Tom Coyne ’20 had himself a huge game off the bench, lighting it up from the perimeter to the tune of 24 points on 8-13 shooting including 7-11 from 3-point land. Towards the end of the game it was Coyne’s hot hand that kept Bates within striking distance where they ultimately got stuck. There’s no doubt that the Bobcats have struggled this year, but they have showed some positive signs and they have a winnable game against Tufts on Saturday. This could be an exciting mid-January matchup from Alumni Gym.

(10) 11. Conn College (6-10, 0-4)

Last week: L 88-60 vs. Amherst, L 91-46 vs. Hamilton

This week: vs. Wesleyan

It seems like more of the same in New London as the Camels took two drubbings at home at the hands of Amherst and Hamilton. For a number of years now they just haven’t been on the same level as the rest of the NESCAC. David Labossiere ’19 and Dan Draffan ’21 have been putting together some very strong seasons, but neither of them could get anything to fall over the weekend. I will give them the fact that these games were against Amherst and Hamilton who are currently right near the top of the standings, but Conn struggled nonetheless. Their next game is against a hot Wesleyan squad that just knocked off the same two teams that they just lost to. The expectation is low at this point for the Camels but maybe that’s a good thing. Spoiler is a fun position to be in sometimes so maybe they can make something happen.

Still No Clarity: Men’s Basketball Stock Report 1/15

Freshman Andrew Kelley’s (‘22) game winner against Colby boosted Trinity’s chances of securing a playoff berth.

Stock Up

Austin Hutcherson’s ‘21 MVP Campaign

Hutcherson displayed flashes of his full potential during an impressive freshman season, but I don’t think many people would have pegged the 6’6’’ guard to be at the forefront of the MVP conversation. He’s averaging 24.0 ppg in conference play thus far, sporting a ridiculous 46.7% clip from beyond the arc. His offensive game doesn’t strictly revolve around the three ball, however, as he averages more than three trips to the free throw line a game and converts 88% of his freebees. Hutcherson single-handedly willed Wesleyan to huge conference victories against Middlebury and Hamilton, exploding for a combined 78 points; and although the sophomore struggled against Amherst’s stifling defense, he still managed to sink the game-winning shot with 3 seconds left. He’s put the Cardinals in prime position to snag a top seed come conference tourney time, and it’s hard to ignore the multitude of offensive skills Hutcherson brings to the hardwood day in and out. All aboard the Austin Hutcherson hype train.

Late Game Heroics

What a weekend in the ‘CAC. NESCAC fans were blessed with not one, not two, but three game-winning shots during Saturday and Sunday’s slate of games. The first one concerned Wesleyan and Amherst, where Austin Hutcherson sank a shot off the glass with three seconds remaining to give the Cardinals a 62-60 win over the Mammoths and cement their place as the number two team in league play. Then, in what most certainly is one of the bigger upsets we’ve encountered this season, Brennan Morris (‘21) of Tufts drilled a baseline jumper with seven seconds to play, shocking the Middlebury Panthers en route to an 86-84 victory. Last, but certainly not least, Trinity’s Anthony Kelley (‘22) took an inbounds pass with less than four seconds left and converted a layup as the buzzer sounded, finishing off Colby 62-60. It was an exhilarating week of basketball in one of the country’s premier D3 conferences, and here’s to hoping the madness continues.

Stock Down

Hamilton’s FT% on the Road

When I wrote the team preview for Hamilton, I alluded to their struggles from the free throw line in the 2017-2018 season and how that number would have to improve if the Continentals wanted to challenge for the NESCAC Championship (and beyond). Well, it’s safe to say they must’ve not read the preview, because the numbers are still bad. In particular, the Continentals are sporting an abysmal 55% clip from the charity stripe when playing on the road. Up until this weekend, Hamilton had the talent and scoring capabilities to overcome their poor numbers at the line, but it finally caught up to them this weekend at Wesleyan. The Continentals converted just 53.8% of their free throws (7/13), while the Cardinals sunk 22 of their 23 free throws. In a game where neither team shot particularly well, it was free throws that ultimately decided the outcome. Considering Hamilton has two huge road games remaining against Middlebury and Williams, they might want to consider setting some practice time aside for free throw shooting.

Middlebury’s Defense

Thomas Coyne ‘20 nails one of fifteen threes for the Bobcats against a porous Middlebury D.

The Panthers had rather pedestrian numbers on defense throughout the non-conference slate, but they’re giving up an additional 10 ppg in conference play. Allowing 93 points to Bates (who averages less than 75 ppg) and 86 to Tufts is not the recipe to success. Through four conference games, the Panthers are allowing opposing teams to shoot 49.1% from the field, including 40.9% from downtown. They’re not forcing a ton of turnovers, and based on their assists allowed/game, opposing NESCAC teams are moving the ball with ease against Midd’s D. They have such an explosive offense that can keep them in any contest, but the defensive side of the ball needs more attention if the Panthers want to right the ship.