Month: February 2020

The Old and the New: Colby vs. Amherst Semifinal Preview

#2 Colby (23-2, 8-2) vs. #3 Amherst (18-7, 7-3), 7pm, Medford, MA

Overview

The Mammoths come into this game very hot, winning 7 of 8 games over the past month. Recently they have been led by emerging star Garrett Day ’21 who is averaging over 20 points per game during this stretch and has now found himself a spot in the starting lineup. Historically Amherst has made their living by playing fundamentally sound basketball, being careful with the ball and playing gritty, hard-nosed defense. Well, this year is no exception. Right now the Mammoths allow the fewest points of anyone in the league and they turn the ball over less than anyone besides Middlebury. In their first meeting Amherst held Colby – the league’s highest scoring team by a large margin – to just 69 points on 37.5% shooting, however they also turned the ball over 22 times. They also shot 58.9% from the floor in that game, which is their second highest single-game shooting percentage of the season. Last time around the Mammoths may have been able to shoot their way out of some carelessness with the ball, but I expect them to put extra emphasis on sticking to their game plan and not let the Mules speed the game up too much.

I don’t think it’s fair to say that Colby has struggled recently, but things definitely haven’t been all sunshine and rainbows over the past few weeks like they were at the start of the season. The Mules are still 5-2 over their last 7 games, but when you get off to an 18-0 start any loss makes it look like you’re slowing down. One of the biggest question marks in this game is the status of Sam Jefferson ’20, who went down with an ankle injury 3 weeks ago against Hamilton. Jefferson is one of the most efficient and talented players in the league and still has a realistic shot at winning NESCAC Player of the Year despite missing several games. He didn’t play at all over the 4 games after his injury, but last weekend Coach Strahorn tried sending him out there during the Mules’ triple overtime victory over Bates in the quarterfinals. Unfortunately Jefferson immediately had to go back to the bench because it essentially looked like he was playing on one leg. If Coach Strahorn thought that there was a chance Jefferson could play last week, perhaps an extra week of rest and healing is all it will take for him to at least be able to contribute a good chunk of minutes. Colby has an array of guards who can spread the floor and shoot the crap out of the ball, but Sam Jefferson ’20 is an important piece of the puzzle and they certainly haven’t been the same team without him.

Amherst X-Factor

F Eric Sellew ’20 (13.3 PPG, 6.9 REB/G, 3.4 AST/G, 53.6% FG, 23 MIN/G)

(Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

There’s no doubt that Sellew is the X-Factor for the Mammoths in this one. Colby’s number one problem is that they lack size, so the fact that Sellew is 6’7” means that he should feast on the glass all night. He’s also a versatile scorer and his long wingspan makes him very difficult to guard around the basket. A shoulder injury in mid-January sidelined him for a few games, but it seems as though he’s back to full health. In their first meeting with the Mules Sellew struggled a bit, turning the ball over 7 times and only grabbing 4 rebounds (he did score 15 points). Amherst still won that game, but they can’t expect the same result if Sellew isn’t at his very best. With his injury in the rear-view mirror, he’s ready to lead the Mammoths to yet another deep postseason run.

Colby X-Factor

G Will King ’23 (9.7 PPG, 4.6 REB/G, 5.8 AST/G, 50% FG)

(Courtesy of Colby Athletics)

King could not have picked a better time to have his best game of the season, netting 32 points, hauling in 11 rebounds, and dishing out 5 assists in the Mules triple overtime victory over Bates in the NESCAC Quarterfinals. This guy has been one of the most impressive rookies in the league all season, but if he’s able to elevate his play even more in the postseason then Colby is primed for a deep playoff run. King is the NESCAC leader in assists and assist-to-turnover ratio, so we know he has great court vision and he’s careful with the ball. He’s also the tallest player in the starting lineup (albeit 6’5”), so he’ll need to continue hitting the boards to help with rebounding duties. His points per game average is a bit deceiving because he started the year off a bit slow scoring wise. Over the last 15 games he has reached double figures 10 times, most recently with his 32-point outburst last weekend. With everything else he does on the court, if King can increase his scoring totals then he’s going to really make an impact down the stretch.

Final Thoughts

Obviously the health of Sam Jefferson ’20 is a huge factor in this one, but I expect it to be a battle either way. NESCAC Tournament games have a flare for the dramatic and no one knows that better than these two teams who are both coming off overtime quarterfinal matchups. Garrett Day ’21 has emerged as the star over the second half of the season for Amherst and he’s been very hot as of late, but they’ll need guys like Fru Che ’21 and Josh Chery ’20 to step up as well if they want to keep up with Colby’s high octane offense. The Mules’ five-man backcourt of Jefferson, Noah Tyson ’22, Matt Hanna ’21, Alex Dorion ’20, and Will King ’23 can score on you in a hurry, but they had a season-low shooting percentage in their first go around against the Mammoths. Conversely, Amherst had their second highest field goal percentage of the season last time against the Mules. I wouldn’t bet on either of those happening again, particularly since they’ve each seen each other once and have made some adjustments heading into this meeting. Colby’s reliance on the 3-ball makes them really hard to trust in the postseason, even with a 23-2 record over the course of the season. Combine that with Jefferson’s status being up in the air, I think the third-seeded Mammoths are the favorites in this one.

Writer’s Pick: Amherst 83 – Colby 78

And Then There Were Four: Tufts vs. Trinity Semifinal Preview

#1 Tufts (19-6, 8-2) vs. #4 Trinity (17-8, 6-4), 5pm, Medford, MA

Overview

Tufts heads into this match off the heels of a comfortable 83-66 quarterfinal victory over Hamilton that saw four starters reach double figures. Led by veteran guard Eric Savage’s 20 points, the Jumbos blazed out of the gate with a 14-3 run to start the game and never looked back, knocking down 58% of their shots in the process. The regular season NESCAC champions put together as well-rounded of a first half performance as they have had all season (despite turning the ball over eleven times), shooting 64% from the field and stifling the opposition to the tune of just 32.3% and 2-14 from behind the arc. Keeping their foot on the gas, the Jumbos extended their lead as far as 24 points, taking a commanding 64-40 lead with twelve minutes remaining.

Joe Bell ’20 (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)

The Bantams have had quite the puzzling season, needing overtime to defeat lowly Conn College while beating the likes of Middlebury, Williams and Amherst to claim the tournament’s fourth seed. Despite having the seeding advantage over the Panthers, not many people would have expected Trinity to take down the nation’s 19th-ranked squad, and yet they not only did so for the second time this season, but the boys in blue and yellow did so in convincing fashion.  The offense has been quite sporadic, but the Bantams reached the century mark for the fifth time in 2020, becoming the first team to hang 100 on the Panthers this season. Shooting a sizzling 56.5% from the field, Trinity took a twelve-point lead with Colin Donovan’s jumper with just over three minutes remaining in the first half; from that point onward, the Bantams never let the lead dwindle below a dozen, splatting six threes and converting twenty of their twenty-seven field goals in the second half. 

Tufts X-Factor

Luke Rogers ‘21 (16.2 PPG, 11.9 REB/G, 56.8% FG, 45.9% FT)

(Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)

Rogers is undoubtedly (and literally) the centerpiece of this squad, tallying eight double-doubles in ten NESCAC games thus far. The Player of the Year candidate led the ‘CAC with 11.9 rebounds per game and was fifth in scoring, averaging 16.2 points per contest.  He had what would be perceived by his standards as a quieter effort in the quarterfinals against Hamilton, finishing with fourteen points and six boards; however, there is no doubt that his size and skill set in the low post attracts a multitude of helpside defenders, giving the rest of the team open lanes to drive and shots to knock down. In their emphatic, 30-point victory over the Bantams back in early February, the junior tallied sixteen points (6-11 shooting) and six boards in just 23 minutes. Rogers and the rest of the Jumbos know this semifinal game won’t be as easy as their regular season meeting, and he’ll have to be on his A-game in order to walk out of Cousens Gymnasium with a win. One area he’ll have to improve on is his free throw percentage: over his past four games, Rogers is shooting an abysmal 32% from the charity stripe.  The big fella was not exactly phenomenal at shooting free throws to begin with, but Trinity will know this and use every chance they have to send Rogers to the line instead of giving up an easy bucket (or maybe even implement a hack-a-Rogers strategy). 

Trinity X-Factor

Colin Donovan ‘21 (14 PPG, 3.9 REB/G, 3.3 AST/G, 43.5% 3PT)

(Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)

Trinity is relatively well-rounded in the scoring department, but Donovan is one of the more pure shooters on this team and will certainly need to score aplenty Saturday afternoon in Medford. The junior rounds out the top-ten scorers in the NESCAC with 16.4 PPG and attempts around six threes per contest. He’s scored fifteen plus in each of his last four games, including dropping 24 on Amherst. Against Tufts in the previous matchup, however, Donovan was uncharacteristically shut down, failing to register a single point in seventeen minutes of action. We here at Nothing But NESCAC certainly don’t expect the same result this time around, but for Trinity to win this game, Donovan will have to take over this game and eclipse 20+ points. He’s certainly capable of doing so (reaching that mark on six occasions to date) and Donovan has had games where he can run up the numbers in the rebounding and assists department(s). Trinity will surely need him to have one of his best performances of the entire season in order to have a real shot at knocking off the Jumbos. 

Final Thoughts

This game is especially perplexing because of how volatile the Bantams have been this season. Just in February alone, Trinity has played six games and only one of them was decided by single digits. The other five? Three victories by an average of (approximately) 20 points, and two defeats by an average of 24.5 points.  The Jumbos entered conference play on the back end of two consecutive defeats, causing people to question if this team reached its peak too early in the season. Any such concerns were quelled after cruising past the Continentals, and now get the privilege of hosting a team that they embarrassed just a few weeks ago. At 17-8, Trinity probably needs a win against Tufts to join the conversation in securing an at-large bit to the NCAA Tournament and bolster their resume (although a sweep of Middlebury and a road win against Amherst looks pretty darn good). Tufts, despite dropping out of the top 25 rankings, should still be firmly locked into postseason play regardless of Saturday’s result. 

Despite both defenses ranking in the top three in terms of defensive field goal percentage within the NESCAC, I expect both offenses to have their fair share of points in this one.  The Jumbos know they have the size advantage with Rogers down low and should allow him to pound away and kick the ball out to open shooters. Furthermore, the Bantams allow over 81 PPG despite holding opponents to under 42% from the field, and a large part of that dilemma has to do with the fact that Trinity is ninth in terms of turnovers (13.4 per game). Nonetheless, the Bantams will be confident coming off such a strong performance against the NESCAC’s highest-ranked team in the national polls. In a tight first half where Trinity does just enough to keep the game within distance, give me Tufts to make a run in the last quarter of the game and hold off the boys from Hartford. 

Writer’s Pick: Tufts 86 – Trinity 74

Love (And Postseason Hope) Is in the Air: Weekend Preview 2/14

Friday

Hamilton (14-8, 2-6) vs. Conn College (4-18, 0-8), 7pm, Clinton, NY

Because of their loss last weekend to Bowdoin, Hamilton must win both their games this weekend in order to even possibly qualify for the postseason tournament; if Bates and/or Bowdoin wins one game, Hamilton will be eliminated regardless of their outcomes. The Continentals wouldn’t have been in this position had they not blown a 23-point lead in the second half of their game against the Polar Bears, but they’ll need to shake that one off and take the Camels seriously in order to move on to Saturday and keep their postseason hopes alive. It’s already been established that Kena Gilmour ‘20 is the heart and soul of this team as he’s the only player averaging double figures, but someone else really has to step up during these last two games as a reliable second scorer. Even if it’s the Gilmour show again, Hamilton can get away with it against Conn, although it won’t be as comfortable of a win as they’d like it to be.

Writer’s Pick: Hamilton 78, Conn 69

Amherst (16-6, 6-2) vs. Trinity (15-7, 5-3), 7pm, Amherst, MA

With both teams having already locked down postseason spots, this game remains crucial for seeding purposes. After last week’s impressive sweep of both Bowdoin and Colby, the Mammoths are just half a game behind the Mules and have an opportunity to leap them for the second seed. Conversely, a slip-up against Trinity would allow the Bantams to surpass them, so it’s safe to say this one will be a hotly-contested matchup. Trinity rebounded from their beatdown against Tufts by absolutely throttling the slumping Bobcats. Nick Seretta ‘20, Colin Donovan ‘21, and the rest of the Bantams’ bench ran the show, pouring in 65 points. It should be a tight and hotly-contested affair early, and while Trinity has had a slew of impressive victories during the course of the season, Amherst currently has the hotter hand and will deliver a huge win in front of their home crowd.

Writer’s Pick: Amherst 77, Trinity 68

#12 Colby (20-2, 7-2) vs. Wesleyan (13-9, 2-6), 7pm, Waterville, ME

The Mules have now lost conference games in consecutive weeks, officially eliminating them from obtaining the number one seed in the postseason tournament. Even in their close win against Hamilton this past Friday, the Mules struggled to put together a complete effort and record a convincing win. Most of their problems have (surprisingly) come on the offensive end in recent games, including their 72-61 win against Bates on Tuesday evening. The Mules shot just 39% from the field, with multiple major contributors struggling (Matt Hanna ‘21, Noah Tyson ‘22 and Alex Dorion ‘20 a combined 5-26 from three). Thankfully for Colby, their defense saved the day with fantastic perimeter defense. At 2-6 in conference play, the Cardinals would need to win out and have some help in order to steal that final seed. Having dropped four consecutive conference games, however, doesn’t instill much confidence in me to believe they can actually achieve this. We don’t know the status of Jefferson, but I expect the Mules to bounce back regardless and shake off those offensive woes. 

Writer’s Pick: Colby 88, Wesleyan 75

#10 Middlebury (19-3, 5-3) vs. #18 Tufts (18-4, 8-0), 7pm, Middlebury, VT

Tufts has already secured the title of regular season champions, but this match-up poses real threats to their unblemished conference record.  Similarly to the Mules, the Panthers like to spread opponents out; however, they have some more height to combat star big man Luke Rogers ‘21 with the duo of Matt Folger ‘20 and Ryan Cahill ‘21 (still waiting on the return of big man Alex Sobel ‘22). The defense has started to show signs of tightening things up, and the offense drained fourteen triples in their last game against Wesleyan. As for the Jumbos, don’t think that this game is meaningless because they’ve already wrapped up the top seed for the conference tournament. Despite having accomplished that in addition to a victory over the Mules, the Jumbos are slotted eighteen in the national polls, a distant third behind #12 Colby and #10 Middlebury. Tufts will surely feel disrespected and motivated to leave Pepin Gym with a resounding victory. It feels like we’ve been waiting for Tufts to finally drop a game in conference play, and I think we might just see it today as they venture outside the confines of Medford. Rogers and veteran guard Eric Savage ‘20 will surely make this a game, but I think the Panthers put together another well-rounded performance to give the Jumbos their first conference loss. 

Writer’s Pick: Middlebury 83, Tufts 76

Williams (11-11, 4-4) vs. Bates (11-11, 3-5) 7pm, Williamstown, MA

Last week’s win against Wesleyan was significant because it locked down a top eight seed for Williams. Where they will finish, however, is anyone’s guess. Currently occupying the sixth seed, the Ephs are one game behind the four seed, and conversely are one and a half games ahead of Bowdoin for the eight spot. They’ve had their ups-and-downs this season, but this game might just come down to how effective our Nothing But NESCAC brethren Matthew Karpowicz ‘20 is. Coach App surely has seen the numbers Luke Rogers put up against the Bobcats and will try to recreate offensive sets for his big man similar to how the Jumbos featured theirs. For the Bobcats, it’s been tough sledding on offense end these past two games, and that’s not a great sign considering the Ephs are second in the NESCAC in points allowed per game. Bates needs just a single win in one of their next two games to automatically qualify for the conference tourney, but with the potential absence of sharp-shooter Kody Greenhalgh ‘20, another poor shooting night could derail those hopes.

Writer’s Pick: Williams 71, Bates 65

Saturday

Amherst (16-6, 6-2) vs. Conn College (4-18, 0-8), 3pm, Amherst, MA

Onto the Saturday slate, where Amherst really should have no problem dealing with a Conn team that seems primed to go winless in conference play for the third consecutive year. The Mammoths seem to have been motivated upon their disappearance from the Top 25 rankings back in mid-January; most notably, they’ve found a real groove on offense, averaging 84.8 ppg over their past five contests. That’s a scary statistic for the rest of the NESCAC given that Amherst also boasts the league’s top defensive unit. 

Writer’s Pick: Amherst 83, Conn College 62

Hamilton (14-8, 2-6) vs. Trinity (15-7, 5-3), 3pm, Clinton, NY

Not to overlook the Conn game, but this match-up right here is essentially do-or-die for the Continentals.  Under the presumption that Hamilton beats Conn, even if they win against Trinity, they may not make the conference tournament if Bates wins one game or if Bowdoin defeats Wesleyan. However, they surely don’t have a chance if they drop this contest against the Bantams, so they’ll need to rally together on Senior Day because everyone wants to see Gilmour work his magic in the postseason. Unfortunately for the Continentals’ faithful, I just don’t see enough consistency out of this team to merit a victory over a better caliber opponent. Take the over on Gilmour’s points, but the Bantams will grind down the home team and leave New York victorious.

Writer’s Pick: Trinity 77, Hamilton 72

Williams (11-11, 4-4) vs. #18 Tufts (18-4, 8-0), 3pm, Williamstown, MA

Whether they win or lose against Middlebury on Friday, the The Jumbos will be weary from their game against the Panthers as they hit the road again to take on the Ephs.  This match-up pits the two best big men in the conference against one another in Rogers and Karpowicz. Karpowicz might have the experience, but Rogers has been more of a force on the glass and has the surrounding shooters to allow for more isolation plays. The Eph defense will keep this one close for a half or so, but give me the Jumbos to conclude their end-of-season road trip with a quality victory. 

Writer’s Pick: Tufts 74, Williams 64

#10 Middlebury (19-3, 5-3) vs. Bates (11-11, 3-5), 3pm, Middlebury, VT

On paper this appears as if it could be a bloodbath given the way both teams are trending, but circle this one as a hangover game for the Panthers.  I really do think they defeat Tufts on Friday, and if they do, then I fully expect a sluggish start against a Bates team that could very well be playing for their playoff lives on Saturday. That kind of desperation, coupled with a more relaxing vibe on Senior Day after an important home victory the previous night is a recipe for a bit of chaos. Key cogs in the offense such as Stephon Baxter ‘23 and Jeff Spellman ‘20, haven’t shot well recently, but with some added adrenaline it’s very possible the offense starts knocking down shots.  I’m not saying Bates will win, but I believe this one will be much closer than most people believe. Middlebury scrapes by with a win, and Bates still makes the tournament with Hamilton’s loss to Trin.

Writer’s Pick: Middlebury 83, Bates 78

Sunday

Bowdoin (8-15, 3-6) vs. Wesleyan (13-9, 2-6), 3pm, Brunswick, ME

Winners of two of their past three, the Polar Bears are currently holding onto the last remaining spot in the conference tournament. They must defeat Wesleyan, however, as a loss would in all likelihood bounce them out. A huge piece of Bowdoin’s run has been star David Reynolds ‘20. The senior poured in 33 points in their remarkable overtime comeback against Hamilton, and can get hot very quickly from just about anywhere on the floor. Wesleyan doesn’t really have a defined, go-to scorer like how Bowdoin has Reynolds, although Antone Walker ‘21 and Jordan James 21 form a nice duo. Still, it’s hard not to believe the Polar Bears will rise up on Senior Day in the most important game of their season, and behind David Reynold’s 25+ points, Bowdoin will finally secure a playoff berth in a thrilling win.

Writer’s Pick: Bowdoin 79, Wesleyan 76

Better Late Than Never: Power Rankings 2/8

(3) 1. #21 Tufts (16-4, 6-0)

Last week: W 85-73 vs. Bowdoin, W 80-67 vs. Colby
This week: @ Trinity, @ Conn

This one shouldn’t be much of a surprise- the Jumbos cemented themselves as the current big dog of the NESCAC after handing Colby their first loss of the season. They have been getting it done with the play of their big man Luke Rogers ’21, who had 19 and 12 against Colby on Saturday, and Eric Savage ’20, who had a ridiculous stat line the night before against Bowdoin- 13-17 from the field and 5-5 from deep to finish with 35 points. Sophomore Tyler Aronson ’22 is another offensive talent that needs to be addressed in any opponent’s defensive gameplan. As Cam mentioned in this week’s stock report, Tufts guarded Colby probably better than any team has all season. Starters Noah Tyson ’22, Matt Hanna ’21, and Sam Jefferson ’20 combined for 17 points- a stat that made it awfully tough for Colby to win. With Tufts being the only Boston-area NESCAC and also having the largest enrollment, many of the recruiting pieces are there. We could be witnessing the start of a dynasty with this team. They visit a tough Trinity team Friday night in what should be a good one. 

(1) 2. #9 Colby (18-1, 6-1)

Last week: W 101-84 @ Bates, L 80-67 @ Tufts
This week: vs. Hamilton, vs. Amherst

The Mules finally drop out of the top spot in our rankings after their hot shooting was dampened by Tufts. A big reason for the loss was Tufts’ defensive gameplan- they did not allow Sam Jefferson ’20 to even take a shot in the first half, and he only finished with 3 points. He’s been their big scorer up to this point, so he’ll have to learn to adjust and find other shooters when teams focus on him. Tufts also took advantage of Colby’s lack of size and out-rebounded them by 20, in large part thanks to Luke Rogers ’21. The good news for the Mules is that they finish their conference slate with four straight home games. There’s no doubt that they can win all four, but Tufts showed that a team with a strong big man and a good defensive gameplan can give Colby major problems. 

(7) 3. Trinity (14-6, 4-2)

Last week: W 82-76 vs. Middlebury, W 73-60 vs. Williams
This week: vs. Tufts, vs. Bates

Trin’s upperclassmen-laden rotation is finally starting to play to potential, which is a scary thought for everyone else in the conference. Last weekend, Trinity took down Middlebury and Williams- two teams that blew them out just last season. Between Donald Jorden’s dominance on the boards, Colin Donovan’s elite shooting, and Kyle Padmore ’20 being the frontrunner for DPOY, all the pieces we know the Bantams have are starting to come together. In their past three games, Donovan shot 10-19 from deep, and as Cam mentioned, Jorden has been impossible to box out- 15.6 rebounds per game! This has helped the Bantams’ offense keep up with their traditionally physical and aggressive defense that gave Williams’ inexperienced guards fits. They have two more opportunities to defend their home court this week, as they host an equally hot Tufts team followed by Bates. 

(4) 4. Amherst (14-6, 4-2)

Last week: W 75-53 vs. Wesleyan
This week: @ Bowdoin, @ Colby

The Mammoths (and Middlebury too, for that matter) are knocking hard at the 3 spot, but they’ll be at 4 for now just because their wins last weekend didn’t come against opponents that were as strong as Trinity’s. They looked good against Wesleyan shooting 15-27 from three, but their two losses to Williams hurt their ranking and I know they hurt the hearts of Mammoth faithful even more. Amherst hasn’t really found their go-to guy yet, but we know from their past few conference games that guys like Garrett Day ’21, Grant Robinson ’21 and Fru Che ’21 can give you buckets on any given night. With Bowdoin and Conn College being two of Amherst’s last few games, they’ll likely still salvage a solid NESCAC record despite not being the alpha of the conference as they often are. We’re not sure what their postseason will look like quite yet, but we do know that the Mammoths have been a power for too long to be counted out. 

(2) 5. #13 Middlebury (18-3, 4-3)

Last week: L 82-76 @ Trinity, W 77-61 @ Conn
This week: @ Wesleyan

The Panthers didn’t have a great road trip to Connecticut, taking a loss to Trinity on Friday night and then only being up by one against Conn College before pulling away to win by 16 the next day. Earlier in the year, it wouldn’t have been fathomable for the latter matchup to be that close at all, but Midd has definitely fallen back towards the pack after a hot start. One bright spot for the Panthers has been Tommy Eastman ’21, who went 9-14 from the floor for 22 points with 12 rebounds against Trinity followed by 20 more the next day. Outside of Eastman, the shooting needs to improve for Midd to make a deep postseason run and justify their national ranking. Going a combined 8-43 from deep on the weekend for a team with that much talent is inexcusable. Every team has bad shooting nights sometimes and Midd will likely rebound in a big way at some point over their last three conference games, but there’s got to be a sense of urgency moving forward if the Panthers want a shot at a national bid. 

(8) 6. Williams (10-11, 3-4)

Last week: W 71-62 @ Conn, L 73-60 @ Trinity
This week: @ Wesleyan

The road continues to be rocky for the Ephs. Their NESCAC slate over the weekend included a single-digit (!!) win over Conn, and a loss to Trinity in which the Bantams put the game away early in the second half. Additionally, they suffered a loss this Monday to Yeshiva…a school I had to Google because I had honestly never heard of it before. The story continues to be that the younger guards cannot consistently match the strong inside play of Matt Karpowicz ’20. We know that guys like Cole Prowitt-Smith ’23 and Jovan Jones ’22 can play, but they just don’t seem to be playing with the cohesiveness of last year’s veteran unit. Karpowicz held his own against Donald Jorden in Hartford with 15 and 12, but the team’s 17 turnovers and 5-24 three-point shooting showed both the strength of Trinity’s defense and the inexperience of the Ephs. Going 2 for 2 against Amherst on the year always feels good, but Williams could really use a win on Friday against Wesleyan to solidify their playoff positioning. 

(5) 7. Hamilton (14-6, 2-4)

Last week: W 78-67 vs. Wesleyan
This week: @ Colby, @ Bowdoin

The 7-9 spots are just as messy as the 3-6. Hamilton gets the 7 this week, but that’s not to say that a lot more wasn’t expected out of them coming into this season. We all know how good Kena Gilmour ’20 is, but it’s his senior year so what that means is that teams have finally started to do a better job gameplanning for him. He’s still been putting the ball in the basket, but not at the rate that earned him Player of the Year last season. We have yet to see one of his teammates step up and become that consistent second scoring option when Gilmour is being double teamed or smothered by a strong defender. Hamilton also can’t afford any more random defensive lapses like the one they had on January 18, when they gave up 98 points to Bates. The Continentals are making the long trip to Maine this weekend to take on Bowdoin and Colby, and they’re in trouble if they don’t come back having won at least one of those games. 

(9) 8. Wesleyan (13-7, 2-4)

Last week: L 75-53 @ Amherst, L 78-67 @ Hamilton
This week: vs. Williams, vs. Middlebury

Sorry to Cardinals fans, but this team just has not been very exciting since Austin Hutcherson transferred to Illinois. It has to be disheartening to lose by 20 in your conference game against Little Three foe Amherst when you beat them earlier in the season. They followed that game up with a tough loss to a very beatable Hamilton team. Like Amherst, Wes is a team still kind of looking to find their identity. They’ve got guys like Antone Walker ’21 and Jordan James ’20 who will give you 10 or 15 a game, but that just hasn’t been enough for the Cardinals to be a force. The Cards have a tough four-game stretch to end the season, with Williams and Middlebury at home this weekend and a road trip to Maine with Colby and Bowdoin to finish out. My prediction is that their one-point loss to Bates earlier this year will come back to haunt them come postseason play. 

(10) 9. Bowdoin (7-13, 2-5)

Last week: L 85-73 @ Tufts, W 78-73 @ Bates
This week: vs. Amherst, vs. Hamilton

Bowdoin’s win last week over Bates may not be turning any heads at the top of the league, but it vaulted them from a clear second-to-last rank into the muddled pack of teams battling for the final seeds. They have a shot at getting one of these last spots, but it will be tough with them having played one more game than many of the teams they’re battling. Their best hope will be if David Reynolds ’20 and Sam Grad ’20 both go off in the same game…for a few games. Keep an eye on their games against Hamilton and Wesleyan to see how the lower seeds will sort themselves out. 

(6) 10. Bates (10-9, 2-4) 

Last week: L 101-84 vs. Colby, L 78-73 vs. Bowdoin
This week: @ Conn, @ Trinity

The Bobcats are being placed below their other two-win counterparts because it was a surprise that Bowdoin beat anyone besides Conn in the conference, but they made it happen against Bates. You would think this team has another run of good basketball left in them due to their abundance of seniors, but we have not seen them put together a consistent stretch of winning this season. We know they can put up big points every now and then (98 against Hamilton), but the loss to Bowdoin has has to hurt. The insult to injury for the Bobcats is that they finish their conference slate with five away games. Bates will likely be battling for one of the last few playoff spots.

(11) 11. Conn College (4-16, 0-6)

Last week: L 71-62 vs. Williams, L 77-61 vs. Middlebury
This week: vs. Bates, vs. Tufts

While Conn may still be searching for that ever-so-elusive conference win, they have at least been competitive lately. Things continued to look up after their heartbreaking double overtime loss to Trinity- the Camels only lost by 9 to Williams and were within one of Middlebury at halftime. Trust the process. At this point, I wouldn’t totally count out the possibility of a win in their last three games. I’m not saying it’s likely, but Conn’s last few performances have given me faith. Freshman Ben McPherron ’23 has been a player to watch, averaging 12.1 ppg on the season. A few more strong showings will cool down coach Tim Sweeney’s seat a bit once the season concludes. 

All Roads Go Through Medford: Stock Report 2/6

Stock Up

Tufts

This one is relatively straightforward, but the Jumbos are for real: anyone who was not a believer in this squad before Saturday’s monumental home victory against the Mules, you are surely one now. Tufts was not even remotely phased by Colby’s plethora of talented guards, sticking with their plan of centering their offense around big man Luke Rogers ‘21.  The big fella got his own with 19 points and 12 boards, and both Eric Savage ‘20 (22 points, 6 rebounds) and Tyler Aronson ‘22 (14 points) provided big buckets down the stretch, allowing Tufts to pull away. What was most impressive above all, however, was the stifling defense displayed by the Jumbos against one of the country’s most prolific offenses. Tufts held Colby to just 41% shooting from the field, smothering (in particular) Sam Jefferson ‘20 (three points on 1-5 shooting). With an immaculate 6-0 record in conference, Tufts is now (in theory) two full games ahead of Colby for first place because of their head-to-head victory and should absolutely be placed higher than their #21 national ranking.  The slate ahead won’t be particularly easy with road games remaining against Trinity, Middlebury and Williams, but the Jumbos fear no one and have made it clear to the rest of the NESCAC that they (not Colby) are the best team in the league. 

Donald Jorden Jr. ‘21 and Trinity

Don’t look now, but Jorden is quietly cementing himself as one of the best big men in the NESCAC. Over the past three games, the 6’6’’ junior is averaging 16.0 PPG and a jaw-dropping 15.6 REB/G. His seven offensive rebounds in Trinity’s upset victory against Middlebury displays how relentless Jorden is on the glass, and it is truly safe to say that he is the most instrumental player to both the Bantams’ recent success.  The weekend sweep of Middlebury and Williams vaulted Trin into the third spot in the standings, and with a home game against Tufts still to come, a higher ascension within the conference standings is not totally out of the question. 

League Parity

It’s not even March and the NESCAC is already experiencing some early madness vibes. Aside from Tufts (6-0), Colby (6-1), and Conn (0-6), the rest of the NESCAC is separated by two games or fewer.  While it may come to hurt some teams seeking an at large bid, it nonetheless makes for an exciting home stretch in which no game is really an absolute gimme for any team. Even the infamous Conn College, despite their winless streak in conference play reaching 27 games, has started to show signs of life with a double-overtime heartbreaker to in-state rival Trinity coupled with a hard-fought loss to Middlebury (whom they were beating midway through the second half). Bowdoin’s upset over Bates has allowed them back into the playoff picture, patiently waiting behind the cluster of Williams, Bates, Hamilton and Wesleyan, all sitting with four losses. Next week will surely see some movement in the standings, but I’ll be the first to admit that most of these matches can go either way. 

Stock Down

Bates’ Playoff Chances

The Bobcats might very well be the most volatile team in the ‘CAC this season – they can compete with the very best (as we saw last weekend giving the Jumbos all they could handle), and yet struggle with some of the traditional bottom-feeders. This type of behavior was on full display on Friday and Saturday; Bates went toe-to-toe with Colby for roughly 25 minutes before the defense collapsed, and then proceeded to sleepwalk the following day against Bowdoin. Having already defeated the Polar Bears comfortably by 14 on the road earlier this season, I assumed that, despite the natural hangover that comes with losing to your rival, the ‘Cats would rebound quickly against their other in-state rival in a must-win game. Instead, the Bobcats turned in their worst offensive performance of the season, shooting an abysmal 31.9% from the field. Sitting at 2-4 in conference play and currently tied for seventh (they hold the tiebreaker over Hamilton and Wesleyan due to their head-to-head victories), Bates is still firmly in the playoff picture – however, all four of their remaining conference games are on the road, and besides Conn (who is still not nearly as much of a pushover as we previously thought), all of those games are against very quality opponents in Trinity, Williams, and Middlebury.  It’s safe to say the Bobcats now face an absolute must-win against the Camels, and will probably need another victory from that other group of three in order to safely secure a spot in the conference tournament. 

Middlebury

The Panthers are in trouble not so much for the conference tournament as they are for their overall seeding come national tourney time. Checking in as the current five seed in the NESCAC isn’t the best look for a top fifteen team nationally, who is expected to run the table of sorts and dominate inferior opponents. It was a relatively rough weekend for Midd as they dropped one to Trinity and severely struggled with Conn until midway through the second half. The remaining slate isn’t the most favorable for the Panthers, having to hit the road next weekend to face a desperate Cardinals team before hosting both the undefeated Jumbos and a talented, yet inconsistent Bobcats squad the following weekend. The offense has experienced a slight downward tick in production over those past two games, but there’s plenty of time for a team as uber-talented as Middlebury to pick up the pace and head into the conference tournament on a high note.