April 2016 – Nothing But NESCAC

Fight to the Finish: Power Rankings 4/28

It's hard to believe, but with the West still up in the air, Williams, ranked seventh this week, can still make the playoffs with a sweep of the Continentals. (Courtesy of Williams Athletics) — It’s hard to believe, but with the West still up in the air (like this fastball), Williams, ranked eighth this week, can still make the playoffs with a sweep of the Continentals. (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)

It’s been about two weeks since we last released our NESCAC Baseball Power Rankings, and lots of epic wins, losses and upsets have happened since then. As teams make their final push for the playoffs, let’s take another look at how the they stack up against one another.

Tufts (23-5, 8-0), Last Rankings: #3
The Jumbos have proven that you don’t need to be the best in each area of the game to be a winning team—talent and skill can be two different things. Whereas plenty of teams in the NESCAC have talented players, Tufts has players able to utilize their talent in a way that yields success. Their team batting average isn’t great at .296, but their OBP of .427, the third best number in the league, is promising. Even their .405 slugging percentage is admirable. On the mound, Andrew David ’16 (2.22) and Speros Varinos ’18 (2.29) have tortured batters. The East may not be as competitive as the West this season, but let’s not disregard the significance of Tufts’ 8-0 conference record. No other NESCAC team comes close to that. Of course, we haven’t really seen Tufts face the scrappy West teams yet, so we will have to wait until the playoffs to see how these teams really compare.
Wesleyan (18-9, 5-4), Last Rankings: #1
I’m sure the Cardinals will be furious when they see this drop in the rankings, but you can’t drop two games to Williams (#8)—by at least three runs—and still hold the number one slot. According to statistics and overall performance, Wesleyan would actually place several spots lower in the rankings were it not for their incredible roster of batters, especially Marco Baratta ’16, Guy Davidson ’16 and Will O’Sullivan ’16. These guys bang it out when up at bat, bringing real firepower every time they’re at the plate, and hitting for power is what a team needs to get ahead in the NESCAC. On the mound, ace Nick Miceli ’17 is a phenomenal and crafty pitcher with a solid 2.63 ERA and 45 strikeouts on his resume, while the team’s most successful pitcher after him, Peter Rantz ’16, has just a slightly above-average 4.59 ERA. Having watched Wesleyan’s series against Hamilton, I can say that the Cardinals won the series because the Continentals made ghastly errors in Game 3, not necessarily because the Wesleyan team is far superior, which speaks to the NESCAC’s parity this year. Wesleyan’s deadliest weapon is unquestionably its offense, and they beat their closest competition in that category, Hamilton, last weekend. Their ability to pick up runs will allow them to get ahead, or stay relevant, in each game and compensate for other facets of the game, where they are still good, just not great. However, despite the #2 ranking here, the Cards are playing for their playoff lives this weekend. A sweep of Amherst gets them in for sure, while a 2-1 mark will have them watching the Williams series to see if the Ephs can pull off a sweep. Good for Wesleyan is that a scenario where the Cards, Ephs and the Middlebury Panthers all end 6-6 will put Wesleyan into the postseason because of overall winning percentage.
Amherst (20-8, 6-3), Last Rankings: #2
Wesleyan and Amherst are pretty interchangeable right now, but the Cardinals’ production at the plate gives them the boost. That being said, the Jeffs are by no means a team to take lightly, and they have a superior rotation to the Cardinals: their record currently leads the West, and their ace Jackson Volle ’17 (1.10 ERA) earned not one but two conference nods for the Pitcher of the Week position. Dave Cunningham ’16 also received attention this week from the conference for his batting and fielding, boasting a .500 average and an error-free performance in the field. Perhaps Amherst’s one weakness is that the team is good in all areas but not exceptionally great in any one of them. Regardless, Wesleyan and Amherst face each other this weekend, and the series will undoubtedly be neck-and-neck in each game.
Trinity (14-14, 7-5), Last Rankings: #6
The Bantams have had killer series since we last looked at the team rankings. They have gotten back-to-back series wins over Bowdoin (#7) and Colby (#9)—which at the end of the day wasn’t a real struggle—and swept Bates (#10) last weekend, ensuring their spot in the playoffs. Trinity was swept by Tufts, but at the rate the Jumbos have picked themselves up this season, that’s not surprising. The pitching rotation also lacks depth, relying mainly on Anthony Egeln, Jr. (2.44 ERA) for high performance on the mound, but right now that hasn’t been a cause for too much concern. Trinity falls dead center in every area of the game, according to NESCAC standings, so I’m happy with Trinity’s ability to shut down every team in the East except Tufts. Right now Trinity is 7-5 in the conference, and Bowdoin and Colby are next at 3-6. That says a lot about the landscape in the East. The Bantams are also back in the playoffs for the first time since 2013, displacing Bates, who has gone the last two seasons.
Hamilton (14-12, 3-6), Last Rankings: #4
The Continentals currently have the worst record in the West, so why are they still stacked relatively high up in the rankings? I swear I’m not being biased in saying that Hamilton possesses extremely talented players with lots of potential, especially when it comes to performance at the plate. Their slash line of .343/.432/.481 put them second in the conference for hitting, and juniors Ryan Wolfsberg ’17, Kenny Collins ’17 and Brett Mele ’17 would be hitting on any team in the league. Yet, dropping two games a piece to Middlebury and Wesleyan proves a fact that cannot be ignored: Hamilton is consistently unreliable in the field, dropping balls and making terrible throws that add up to inexcusable big innings. Accordingly, they have the worst FPCT in the league at .926 with 588 putouts and a whopping 68 errors. Against the Panthers, Hamilton had eight errors in Game 1, three in Game 2, and two in Game 3. Thankfully, the Continentals improved throughout the weekend, but that’s 13 errors in one weekend—Middlebury had only two. Then last weekend against the Cardinals, Hamilton had 10 errors in total, seven of which contributed (or directly led to) their 15-6 loss in Game 3. Wesleyan, in comparison, had three errors.Compounding the problem is a shallow bullpen that doesn’t rack up a lot of strikeouts. Balls in play plus shaky defense equals unearned runs. The Continentals have a ton to offer, but they’ll never be truly great unless they clean up on defense.
Middlebury (9-16, 6-6), Last Rankings: #7
Week after week, the Panthers are improving rather than shrinking back into the losing team the West has grown accustomed to. They stand right in the middle of all NESCAC team stats when they used to come dead last, or close to it, in previous seasons. We’ve already said that the older players, especially seniors John Luke ’16 and Joe MacDonald ’16, have clearly developed during the off-season and that fresh rookies like Colby Morris ’19 have added more depth to the team, but it’s likely that watching their program progress into a winning program has motivated the players to put in that extra push of effort, producing even more wins. Should Wesleyan fail to win their series against Amherst, the Panthers could potentially knock them out of that second-place slot guaranteeing a run in the NESCAC playoffs. As an eternal lover of the underdog, I’m honestly excited just thinking about it.
Bowdoin (19-10, 3-6), Last Rankings: #8
Honestly, Bowdoin has moved up in rankings because other teams needed to go down in them. That’s probably something to be thankful for, based on the number of rookies the Polar Bears have on the roster. Bowdoin has already been eliminated from the playoffs, but their matchup with Tufts this weekend provides an opportunity to make a statement. It sounds cliche to say Bowdoin is a young team right now and coming out low in rankings is just a part of their growing phase, but, to an extent, it’s sort of the only way you can look at the team right now. No Bowdoin player has made it into the top-50 in batting average, and the team’s batting average of .265 is scary. However, I really like Bowdoin’s ERA of 3.80. That shows some potential, or at least a good starting point, for next season. At this point, Bowdoin needs to think about the future rather than salvaging the rest of their now stagnant season.
Williams (10-17, 4-5), Last Rankings: #9
The Ephs managed to win two games in their series against Wesleyan, which definitely must be acknowledged in some way. I’m pretty dumbfounded by the stats of the games, but nevertheless, those two pretty wins pushed the Ephs ahead of Hamilton in the West’s standings, making this certainly an odd year for the division. Still, statistically Williams hasn’t stacked up well this year. The Ephs have an ERA of 6.94 and have allowed 120 walks, both league worsts. They have a FPCT of .945, which ranks seventh in the league. They swing it at a solid .299/.391/.376 clip, but overall, the team is not up to the caliber of the rest of the division. But, baseball is a crazy game, and a sweep for the Ephs this weekend puts them in the mix for the playoffs.
Colby (10-18, 2-6), Last Rankings: #10
At least the Mules are consistent, right? Colby has a handful of extremely talented players like Soren Hanson ’16 and Tommy Forese ’16, but there’s only so much you can expect them to do for a continually struggling team. Bates’ miserable losses to Trinity pushed Colby ahead of the Bobcats in the East, but the Mules have zero chances of getting to the playoffs anytime in the near future. They remain too far down the standings in all categories to show tremendous growth—they are seventh in average and ninth in ERA and FPCT—and with their two most talented players graduating, it’s likely next year will be a struggle for the Mules. Hopefully Colby really invests in the youth in the offseason in order to get a head start on next year’s season, when there will be really, really big shoes to fill.
Bates (10-16, 2-6), Last Rankings: #5
In just two weeks, the Bobcats have severely dropped in our power rankings. They started off the season quite well: they won their doubleheader against Bowdoin; Connor Speed ’18 was awarded NESCAC Pitcher of the Week. Everything just fall apart afterwards. Trinity dominated their series, winning all three of the weekend’s games. In all fairness, two games had a one run differential, and one game went into extra innings, so Bates wasn’t entirely out of control there. However, those three losses were the straw that broke the camel’s back, or in this case, the Bobcats’ back. Bates is now last in the East after losing six conference games. The team’s pitching is the best thing it has going right now, as Bates has an ERA of 4.42 thanks to guys like Speed. Thankfully, there’s plenty of time for the youth on the team to develop the program, but this year’s essentially over for the team as a whole.

Conference games this weekend will make or break teams’ chances of playing in the NESCAC playoffs this year. Here are this week’s match ups:

Colby vs. Bates—Friday at 3:00 pm; Saturday at noon, 2:30 pm
Tufts vs Bowdoin—Friday at 3:0o pm; Saturday at noon, 2:30 pm
Tufts vs Bates—Sunday at 1:00 pm
Wesleyan vs Amherst—Friday at 4:00 pm; Saturday at 1:00 pm, 3:30 pm
Hamilton vs Williams—Friday at 4:00 pm; Saturday at noon, 2:30 pm
Trinity vs. Middlebury—Saturday at noon, 2:30 pm (non-divisional)

Push for the Playoffs: Weekend Preview 4/22

Amherst is primed and ready for the weekend. Are you? (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

Now that last weekend was, in a word, surprising, it’s a bit challenging to say how this weekend will turn out. If this pattern of upsets continues across the board, we’re looking at an entirely new—albeit pretty dysfunctional—conference. But that’s NESCAC Baseball for you, always keeping you on your toes.

Poor weather strikes the NESCAC yet again, postponing at least the Wesleyan vs. Hamilton series for a day (i.e. the DH remains on Saturday, but Game 3 will be Sunday, not Friday). I know it’s not worth it to pray to Mother Nature to hold off on the rain, but hopefully the weekend won’t be entirely messed up due to crummy weather and thus crummy fields.

This weekend preview is a bit more concentrated than usual, with players to watch for in each series. The projected pitchers are not listed in order of when they will pitch; they are just the candidates we will most likely see on the bump sometime during the weekend’s games.

NESCAC Games

Colby vs Tufts—Friday 3:00 pm; Saturday 12:00 pm, 2:30 pm
Amherst vs Middlebury—Friday 4:00 pm; Saturday 12:00 pm, 2:30 pm
Wesleyan vs Hamilton—Saturday 12:00 pm, 2:30 pm; Sunday 12:00 pm
Bates vs Trinity—Friday 3:00 pm; Saturday 12:00 pm, 2:30 pm
Williams vs Bowdoin—Saturday 12:00 pm, 2:30 pm; Sunday 12:00 pm (games don’t count towards conference standings)

The Run-Down

Colby vs Tufts—Friday 3:00 pm; Saturday 12:00 pm, 2:30 pm
Players to Watch:

3B Zach Ellenthal ’16: Adam Lamont wrote about this senior earlier in the week, but I think mentioning him again only emphasizes how crucial he is to Colby’s series against Tufts. Ellenthal is currently the Mules’ best chance of getting runs this weekend. He holds a team-high slashline of .370/.477/.574 and currently ranks better than all of one Jumbo hitter (Harry Brown). In fact, Colby’s batters are generally hitting better than Tufts right now. If Ellenthal can outsmart Tufts’ unforgiving pitchers, he’ll open the door for the rest of his teammates to wear down and intimidate the bump. (FYI: He was this week’s NESCAC Player of the Week).
P Andrew David ’16: The guy holds a 2.27 ERA in 35.2 innings pitched and manages 10.09 K/G—that’s brutal.. for hitters. Right now he sits in the top five pitchers in the NESCAC, placed right behind this week’s rival pitcher Soren Hanson of Colby (who boasts a 2.23 ERA and strikes out about 10.58 batters per game). David isn’t going to take mercy on the Mules at bat, likely striking out most of Colby’s batting lineup throughout his innings on the mound.

This series is going to be a battle of the pitchers. With both teams hitting slightly below average (Tufts at .294, Colby at .291), the dominant players on the mound (see above) will really be forces to be reckoned with—forces that will probably strike many batters out and lead to a series of low runs and quick innings. Tufts’ is unquestionably the superior team, and a lot of it will be seen this weekend in their defense, which rocks a league-high .965 FPCT. Colby doesn’t have the same consistency in the field at .945, so it’s safe to say the Jumbos will have more luck making it around the bases.

Prediction: Tufts wins 3

Amherst vs Middlebury—Friday 4:00 pm; Saturday 12:00 pm, 2:30 pm

Players to Watch:

C/INF Dave Cunningham ’16: With a .992 FPCT and just one error, Cunningham isn’t going to give Middlebury the errors they enjoyed last week at Hamilton. At bat, he’s also proven himself to be quite reliable, as he holds a .348/.400/.464 slash line. Amherst will need to be consistent on both offense and defense in order to win the series and prevent Middlebury from outsmarting their mistakes, and Cunningham represents the type of player the Jeffs can count on in both areas.
C John Luke ’16: Last week the senior hit a nice .455, going 10-for-22 with five RBIs, four runs scored and a pair of doubles. Against Hamilton alone, he hit .500, going 3-for-5 in game one then 3-for-6 in game three—helping improve his slash line to .380/.415/.493. In his final year, Luke is killing it at the plate, showing serious progress from his previous years with the Panthers. But that’s not all—he’s dominating behind the plate, with 126 putouts and a FPCT of .993. He only has one error. This season Luke is top-notch everywhere he needs to be, and that has prepared him to take on Amherst.

I’m actually thrilled to say that for the first time in a long time, the Panthers have a solid shot of preventing Amherst’s series sweep. They took a game from Wesleyan and capitalized on Hamilton’s errors to take two—what’s Amherst now but another team to be outsmarted by the underdogs?

Don’t get me wrong, Middlebury has talent that should not be confused with just luck. Having worked the scoresheet for all the Hamilton vs. Middlebury games, I can attest to Adam’s claims about P/DH Joe MacDonald ’16 both on the mound and at the plate. Luke, Colin Waters ’19, and Brendan Donohue ’18 also intimidated the Continentals during the series. The Panther rookies really are a great start for the rising program, and the veterans players are showing a lot of growth.

Nevertheless, Amherst has more talent and doesn’t need luck to get wins. They’re going to make the Panthers work a heck of a lot harder than they did last weekend and will show them who’s the real NESCAC powerhouse.

Prediction: Amherst wins 2

Wesleyan vs Hamilton—Friday 4:00 pm; Saturday 12:00 pm, 2:30 pm

Players to Watch:

SS Guy Davidson ’16: Watching Davidson play (albeit via live stream) is pretty incredible. In 105 times at the plate, he’s picked up a .410/.538/.671 slash line with a whopping 15 doubles, three triples, and two home runs. In his four games for Wesleyan last week, he finished 7-for-17 (.417), dominating the Ephs with three doubles, one triple, three RBIs, two runs scored and a walk.
LF Ryan Wolfsberg ’17: Wolfsberg—with a beautiful, conference-topping .461/.538/.671 slash line—is pretty amazing at the plate, and everyone knows it: I the ultra-stats person know it, the Continentals know it, the conference knows it, and he himself knows it. Though Hamilton had a rough weekend, the juniot hit a solid .667 (8-for-12) with a .643 on-base percentage and 1.250 slugging percentage against Middlebury last weekend, adding to his resume a solo home run three hits, two doubles, a triple and more in those three games alone. He has hit safely in seven straight games—which will be an important factor this weekend—and has driven in at least one run in six in a row. He admittedly aims for a home run with every at bat, it’s always intriguing to see just how many times he comes close to that mission.

Wesleyan has been NESCAC Champion for two years; Hamilton is the underdog team evolving into more than just an upstart. In most years, it would be a given that the Cardinals would sweep the series—they are and have been for several seasons the dominant team. But several key factors come into play this year. First, this year’s batch of Continentals shows the tremendous development of the Hamilton program. Second, Wesleyan is developing a tendency to experience upsets, namely losing to Middlebury at the beginning of the season and dropping two games in their series against Williams last weekend.

Let’s look at the stats: Both teams lead the league in hitting, the Cardinals with a .355 batting average followed by the Continental’s .346 (compare: the third highest average is Amherst’s .319). In fact, their entire slash lines are similar: Wesleyan’s .355/.435/.493 is just slightly above Hamilton’s .346/.440/.480. Clearly these two teams are superior at the plate On the mound, Hamilton has actually surpassed Wesleyan, racking up an ERA of 4.30 while the latter only has a 5.21. Then there’s the drastic difference between Hamilton’s 53 walks allowed and Wesleyan’s 100. The Cardinals have only played two more games than the Continentals, so this staggering difference is not relative to games played. I’m expecting we’ll see some big hits from the usual suspects and plenty of outs at the plate.

However, Hamilton’s number of putouts (483) and FPCT (.929) is currently the worst in the league, no doubt as a result of all those ugly, entirely avoidable, kind of just pathetic errors committed in last weekend’s series against Middlebury. If the Continentals don’t keep their heads in the game and play to their potential, they are very much at risk of letting Wesleyan earn excessive runs due to their own deficiencies. Hamilton’s non-conference game against Saint Lawrence University on Tuesday had fewer errors, and I’d like to think that is a reflection of the team’s a) natural talent, b) uncharacteristically bad weekend against the Panthers, and/or c) realization of their ghastly mistakes over the weekend and strong desire to prevent future embarrassments.

Hamilton can prevent a series sweep, perhaps even win two of the three—if they play to their full potential.

Prediction: Wesleyan wins 2

Bates vs Trinity—Friday 3:00 pm; Saturday 12:00 pm, 2:30 pm

Players to Watch:

P Connor Colombo ’16: Colombo just misses the number-one slot in NESCAC with a 1.78 ERA in 30.1 innings on the bump. Against the Bantams, Bates needs to be a stronger force on the mound to compensate for similar batting averages, and Colombo will help Bobcats be that superior team.
Nick Pezzella ’16: Thankfully for the Bantams, Pezzella is full of much-needed firepower at the plate. Last weekend the senior went 6-11 in three games (against Tufts), producing three runs, a double, two homers, five RBIs, a walk, and two stolen paces. In each game, he had two hits on the Jumbo’s pitchers.

As Adam noted earlier this week, Trinity is in quite a sticky situation right now: the Bantams lost all three games against Tufts, placing them in last in the East. This series against Bates is essential if Trinity has any hopes of making the playoffs, or just staying in one piece in the conference. Up at bat, the Bobcats and the Bantams are practically identical, hitting .275 and .279 respectively. While Trinity more frequently hits for power, earning a .394 slugging average compared to Bates’ .352, Bates is slightly luckier when it comes to actually making it on base.

Prediction: Bates wins 2

Williams vs Bowdoin—Saturday 12:00 pm, 2:30 pm; Sunday 12:00 pm

Players to Watch:

1B/P Nathan Michalski ’17: Michalski trails Bowdoin’s Chad Martin in NESCAC fielding standings with a .989 FPCT and two errors in 23 games. It’ll be interesting to see how strong skills on defense prevent the already struggling Polar Bear offense from racking up runs.
P Harry Ridge ’16: If Bowdoin is going to compensate for deficiencies at the plate, they need to prevent Williams from getting too far ahead in runs. Ridge has a 2.81 ERA and has walked only six players while allowing only one home run. It’s likely the Polar Bears will rely on pitchers to give the Ephs a hard time this weekend, and Ridge has the highest chances of doing so.

After winning their series against Wesleyan, the Ephs are likely riding on a high this week against the Polar Bears.

Bowdoin has the poor batting history (i.e. the team’s in dead last) compared to Williams, hitting .266/.350/.359 compared to the Eph’s .309/.404/.394. Thankfully for the Polar Bears, Williams has the highest ERA in the league at 7.73 and only 4.36 K/G, so there’s a chanced that their subpar performance at the plate won’t actually matter. Bowdoin, meanwhile, does pretty well on the bump with a 4.14 ERA—definitely a sign that there questionable pitching rotation has become more cohesive in the last week or so. We always love to see teams play each other in cross-division matchups even it doesn’t count for the standings, and this will be a fun series regardless.

Prediction: Bowdoin wins 2

The Suddenly Wild West: Stock Report 4/19

Middlebury catcher and co-captain Max Araya '16 had some kind of weekend, going 6-12 with three walks, three RBIs and his first career home run while tallying his 100th game and 100th hit in a Middlebury uniform. And he did all of this while the Panthers positioned themselves with a shot at the NESCAC Tournament for the first time since 2011. (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics) — Middlebury catcher and co-captain Max Araya ’16 had some kind of weekend, going 6-12 with three walks, three RBIs and his first career home run while tallying his 100th game and 100th hit in a Middlebury uniform. And he did all of this while the Panthers positioned themselves with a shot at the NESCAC Tournament for the first time since 2011 by beating Hamilton in two out of three games. (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)

I titled the weekend preview a few days ago “Separation Weekend” because I was expecting the usual suspects to make a statement that the status quo was still very much in place. Well, I was dead wrong, as Williams rocked Wesleyan to win two of three. On Friday, starting pitcher Luke Rodino ’17 worked around five walks to pitch seven innings, and the Ephs got production up and down the lineup to get the win. Then in Game 1 of the doubleheader Saturday, shortstop Kellen Hatheway ’19 dropped a three-run homer in the bottom of the seventh and the Ephs walked off with the win. Wesleyan battled back to win the third game handily, but they are still just 3-3 halfway through their conference schedule

Want to know something crazy? Middlebury has as many conference wins as any other NESCAC team. Sure, they also have four losses, but this has still been an incredible run for the Panthers. They took two of three from Hamilton in a sloppy series that was filled with runs. The Friday game in particular was a doozy. Hamilton raced out to a 7-2 lead and seemed to be in control until Middlebury took advantage of a bajillion (it was five but whatever) errors by Hamilton in the 5th inning and scored 10 runs. Hamilton almost came back to win in large part because Chris Collins ’17 was a man possessed at the plate going 5-5 with four runs, seven RBI, and two home runs. That wasn’t enough though, and the Continentals are now 2-4 in conference while Collins left the Saturday twinbill with an injury and he could be affected going forward.

It is still entirely possible that Amherst and Wesleyan emerge from the West, but the two still have to play each other in their series so the math isn’t easy. Considering that Amherst didn’t even play a NESCAC series, they had a great weekend watching the rest of the division beat up on each other. The Amherst-Middlebury series suddenly has serious playoff implications on both sides, a sentence that I didn’t think I was ever going to write. Two wins from the Panthers locks them into a NESCAC Tournament spot. Williams is feeling great after taking two of three from Wesleyan, but they are still just 4-5 with Hamilton still on their docket. The Ephs likely need to sweep Hamilton to have a hope of making the playoffs. For years, the West has been a boring time, and I’m glad that this year has proved to be different.

Stock Up

Relief Pitcher Ian Kinney ’18 (Tufts)

In the final game of their series, Tufts grabbed a 7-0 lead after the first inning, but starting pitcher Andrew David ’16 could last only 2+ innings on the mound. So Kinney, seldom used in high leverage situations this year, had to come on with the score 7-4, runners on first and second, and nobody out. Kinney got out of the inning by getting a strikeout and double play ground out. He then held the Bantams scoreless for the next four innings, and Tufts came away with the victory 11-4. The win completed the sweep of Trinity and moved Tufts to 5-0 now in the NESCAC. The Jumbos are three losses clear of anybody in the East, and they are now virtual locks for the playoffs.With the top teams in the West not looking as strong as usual, this could be the year that the Jumbos convert their domination of the East into a NESCAC championship.

P/DH Joe MacDonald ’16 (Middlebury)

Let me give dear friend of the program and Nothing But NESCAC’s co-founder a little love here. MacDonald has moved over the past two years from playing primarily at third base to now being a weekend starting pitcher and occasional DH, too. On Friday at DH he went 3-6 and had four RBI as a big part of the Panthers comeback. Then on Saturday, he pitched five innings and kept Hamilton in check allowing three runs (two earned). Middlebury has now won two of his three conference starts. He isn’t overpowering many hitters and has a very low strikeout rate, but also only one walk in 18.2 IP. He is doing a good enough job of mixing up his pitches to keep hitters off balance. We have focused mostly on the impact of young players in improving Middlebury’s fortunes, but a large part can also be attributed to contributions from old standbys like MacDonald and John Luke ’16. Max Araya ’16 has also been sensational with a .447 OBP.

3B Zach Ellenthal ’16 (Colby)

Ellenthal hit a not too shabby .667 (8-12) over the three games against Bowdoin. Four of those hits were doubles, and the senior had five RBI. Ellenthal has been in and out of the lineup a little bit this spring, but I’m guessing he is going to get plenty of playing time the rest of the way given that he has a .526 OBP in conference games. Colby’s offense has been much better of late, and they blitzed Bowdoin in the first two games of their series. There isn’t a ton of power on the roster (just four home runs as a team), but they can still hurt you because of the ability for the entire lineup to get on base. I know it sounds cliché, but I saw Bowdoin lose to the Mules in part because Colby put the Polar Bears into situations where they had to make a lot of plays.

Stock Down

Trinity

There is nothing terrible about losing to Tufts, but getting swept by them has put the Bantams into a much more precarious position. Trinity had chances to win each of the three games, and that makes the losses even harder in a way. They led 3-1 in the first game, forced the second game to extra innings, and threatened for a brief moment in that third game as mentioned above. Trinity didn’t play particularly bad in any aspect, but if you have to pin the sweep on any one thing, it would be the inability of the offense to string together hits. They scored four runs in each of the three games, an almost frustrating consistency that allows you to be in every game but have a hard time winning one of them. The Bantams still very much hold their own destiny, and they get a chance at Bates this weekend. Trinity was in basically the same situation last year: 4-5 with only their series against Bates left. The Bantams lost all three of those games to finish in last in the East. A repeat performance of that would be devastating.

Bowdoin’s Veteran Hitters

The Polar Bears offense has ground almost to a complete halt, and the biggest reason is that the guys expected to carry the lineup have instead been huge drags on it. Be warned, some of these conference numbers are tough to swallow. Shortstop Sean Mullaney ’17, who was batting well above .400 for a while, has a .094 BA in conference. Chad Martin ’16, the big bopper in the middle, has a .111 BA and just one extra base hit. Peter Cimini ’16 has a .233 average in conference. Along with Trinity, the Polar Bears are well below every other team in BA for NESCAC games at .217. In fairness to Bowdoin, they do have a much better OBP than Trinity does, but the Bantams have slugged the ball better. Bottomline, nobody on Bowdoin is really hitting the ball that well, and the team has now lost three consecutive series against teams in the East not named Tufts.

Hamilton Defense

The old Bull Durham quote goes, “This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains.” Well, Hamilton has been failing in the catching department, and it really bit them badly on Saturday. We noted already that they had five errors in one inning against Middlebury. They had eight total in that game. For the weekend series, the Continentals had 13 errors. Hamilton is good, but it is hard to win when you keep giving the other team extra outs and opportunities to score. The weekend was a frustrating one for Hamilton because they played well enough in areas to win. And they could see the window of opportunity for making the playoffs open with Williams beating Wesleyan twice. However, they couldn’t capitalize and get it done on their home field. They can still get hot and make a miracle run to the playoffs, but they are going to have to field a lot better to do so.

Separation Time: Weekend Preview 4/15

Jason Lock '17 and the Middlebury lineup looks to continue their surprise start. (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics) — Jason Lock ’17 and the Middlebury lineup looks to continue their surprise start. (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)

After two weeks of Mother Nature really just hating on NESCAC baseball, the forecast for the weekend all over the ‘Cac looks beautiful and is finally doing its part to make baseball fun again. (Knock on wood, please.)

As Adam Lamont’s latest power rankings suggest, the season so far has been filled with people getting hit by pitches (I felt your pain, Panthers—I’m sure pitches from Wesleyan’s Peter Rantz ’16 leave a bruise), some impressive upsets—Hamilton vs Amherst, Middlebury vs Wesleyan—and old powerhouse Trinity potentially crawling their way back into proper form. And then there’s Bowdoin, back near the bottom of the conference. Sorry, Polar Bears, there really is no such thing as luck in the NESCAC.

This weekend, the conference continues on its way with each team having a few more games under their belts:

NESCAC Series:
Trinity vs Tufts—Friday 3 pm; Saturday 12 pm, 2:30 pm
Bowdoin vs Colby—Friday 3 pm; Saturday 12 pm, 2:30 pm
Middlebury vs Hamilton—Friday 4 pm; Saturday 12 pm, 2:30 pm
Williams vs Wesleyan—Friday 4 pm; Saturday 1 pm, 3:30 pm

It’s difficult to pick a specific must-watch game out of this bunch—though the Williams vs Wesleyan face off is certainly the most mismatched of the group in terms of rankings, the remaining trio of games can go either way. The way this season has been going so far, it’s unlikely we will be seeing multiple sweeps this weekend.

Players to Watch

1. P Colby Morris ’19 (Middlebury)
So you know that Middlebury upset of Wesleyan? Colby Morris ’19 was on the mound for that. The rookie earned an incredible—jaw-dropping, actually—win against the reigning NESCAC champs, allowing just three runs over 6.1 innings of work with three strikeouts. Now, Wesleyan has the best team batting average at .370, so the fact that Morris (4.91 ERA) took them down is a serious show of the young arm’s potential for the Panthers. Over the next four years, he’s going to be the threat of the NESCAC.

Morris will start off Middlebury’s series against Hamilton this weekend. Hamilton has the second highest team batting average (.343) and will no doubt go full force against the Panthers to guarantee a first-game victory. If Morris builds off of last weekend’s momentum, he’ll have no problem taking control.

2. C Brett Mele ’17 (Hamilton)
Maybe I’m just standing on a soapbox, but Mele’s stats are absolutely phenomenal this year compared to his first two seasons, and he hasn’t really been given much NESCAC recognition for it. At the plate, the junior holds an awesome .442/.524/.577 slash line that places him in second, fourth, and seventh in the conference, respectively. That power is impressive. Very impressive. Clearly, Mele was playing below expectations in his first two years, but these stats convey some above and beyond effort.

Don’t get me wrong, it’s great that he was selected for the NESCAC All-Academic team last year. But maybe the conference can somehow highlight something else he does well this year, too.

The Run-Down

I’ll keep it short and sweet this week, as there are a lot of games to tune into in the next few days. Here’s what you need to know:

Trinity vs. Tufts
Starting Pitchers: Jed Robinson ’16, Anthony Egeln ’18, Chris Speer (Trinity); Tim Superko ’17, Speros Varinos ’18, Andrew David ’16 (Tufts)

Tufts may be holding strong, but they know that one game can change everything. That being said, the Jumbos are preparing to face Trinity full force. “Trinity is obviously playing really well. They’re a solid team,” head coach John Casey said. “They play really well defensively. We have to keep them off the bases.”

Tufts’ men on the mound will likely make the difference in the Tufts vs Trinity series—Andrew David ’16, especially, will be a battle for Trinity’s batters. David flaunts a 1.42 ERA, the second in the NESCAC; meanwhile Anthony Egeln, Jr., the Bantam’s highest-ranked pitcher, comes in at 2.93. However, Egeln has not allowed a run in his last 14 innings pitched.

The competition in the other area is evidently much closer: the teams are neck-and-neck, with Tufts and .279 and Trinity and .277 for batting and .964 and .962 for fielding. Tufts’ Harry Brown ’17 has been undeniably the most superior batter in the mix, but afterward the stats pretty much blend together. It’s likely we will be seeing some big hits from both sides this weekend unless one team’s defense really plays way above expectations

Nevertheless, Tufts is fundamentally the stronger team, as they are tried and proven. Trinity has the potential to really move up a notch in the rankings this season, but the Bantams currently lack the cohesive firepower of the Jumbos.

Prediction: Tufts wins 2

Bowdoin vs Colby
Starting Pitchers: Harry Ridge ’16, Brandon Lopez ’19, Ben Osterholtz ’19 (Bowdoin); Soren Hanson ’16, Tommy Forese ’16, Brooks Parker ’19 (Colby)

It’s Maine vs Maine this weekend in the NESCAC, and unfortunately, that means one struggling team vs another struggling team. Bowdoin started off the season strong, but proved unable to hold onto that pride and glory once the regular NESCAC season began. Harry Ridge ’16 and Soren Hanson ’16 will make interesting opponents, with commendable ERAs of 1.69 and 2.49. However, Bowdoin’s depth is much more reliable than Colby’s, and you can’t rely on just one pitcher in a three-game series. Colby’s Andrew Currier has dominated at the plate this season for the Mules, racking up nice stats of .377/.417/.434. Sean Mullaney has also made a difference on the Polar Bears, trailing behind Currier with .324/.400/.368.

At the end of the day, this will probably be the most evenly matched series of the weekend, with neither team able to move up in the rankings and really give a blowout performance.

Prediction: Bowdoin wins 2

Middlebury vs Hamilton
Starting Pitchers: Colby Morris ’19, John Bunting, Joe MacDonald ’16 (Middlebury); Cole Dreyfuss ’16, Spencer Vogelbach ’18, Dan DePaoli ’18 (Hamilton)

Both Middlebury and Hamilton stunned the NESCAC with tremendous upsets in the last two weeks, causing their peer teams to think, “Wow, they really have gotten better!” And, in case you missed all of the season so far, they have. Hamilton’s core squad of juniors (Ryan Wolfsberg ’17, Brett Mele ’17, Kenny Collins ’17 and Andrew Haser ’17) is pretty terrifying for fielders; they all stack up extremely highly in NESCAC standings. It’ll probably get even more intimidating once Chris Collins ’17 is 100 percent recovered from his spring break hamstring injury. Hamilton’s pitching rotation is also quite impressive, with Cole Dreyfuss ’16, Spencer Vogelbach ’18, Dan DePaoli ’18 and Max Jones ’19 finding more consistency as the weeks progress.

The rise of the Panthers, meanwhile, is probably the most shocking story in the NESCAC so far. After failing to really produce wins for the past few years, Middlebury got that huge win over Wesleyan last weekend 7-4. The Panthers are experiencing a youth movement that is unquestionably resulting in the team’s success: pitcher Colby Morris ’19, as already expressed, is pitching well on the bump, while Sam Graf ’19, Spencer Tonies ’19 and Phil Bernstein ’19 have been standouts in the field. And then there is Jake Turtel ’18, who currently holds the starting 2B position after not playing much at all last season as well and is hitting .333/.387/.386 at bat.

Hamilton needs to sweep this series if they want to make a major dent in the standings and increase their chances at making this year’s NESCAC playoffs. To do that, winning Game 1 is key. Vogelbach and Morris will duel it out on the mound with a shared goal of getting that first win. After that, one thing is certain: the Continentals are going to put their blood, sweat and tears into this one.

Prediction: Hamilton wins 2

Williams vs Wesleyan
Starting Pitchers: Luke Rodino ’17, Tyler Duff ’17, TBA (Williams); Peter Rantz ’16, Nick Miceli ’17, Ethan Rode ’17 (Wesleyan)

If there’s a sweep this weekend, you can guarantee it’ll happen here. The Ephs definitely have a young team this year, and that means inexperience. All things considered, Williams isn’t too shabby at the plate, averaging .310. Sure, Wesleyan boasts a .370 average, but still, it’s actually quite impressive. Pitching, however, is a completely different story. While Wesleyan has produced a slightly disappointed 4.77 ERA, Williams falls dead last in the NESCAC with a lousy 8.49. Is this better than the two-digit figures we saw during spring break? Yes. Is this going to win many NESCAC contests? No.

If Williams doesn’t improve on the bump, there is next to no chance they will be a legitimate contender against the Cardinals this weekend. Sorry, Ephs, but this one’s not happening for you yet.

Prediction; Wesleyan wins 3

Things Change, but People Stay the Same: Power Rankings 4/13

Get on your horse, Brandon Lopez! (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)

After a little bit of a break from Power Rankings while we waited for things to sort themselves out so we’d look less stupid, the most powerful of NESCAC Power Rankings are back. We haven’t had a rankings since the NESCAC conference season began, so now is a good chance to reorder the teams as the next few weekends are the meat of the NESCAC schedule.

1. Wesleyan (15-4, 2-1), Last Rankings: #2

Kaitlin McCabe ranked Wesleyan second last time, and you might be questioning whether the Cardinals have done enough to make them worthy of moving up. Well, know that it’s close between the top teams. I put Wesleyan tops because I think they have the highest ceiling, even with everything they lost last year. They are 9-1 in their last 10 games, and after dropping their conference opener to Middlebury, they responded with two convincing wins in the doubleheader Saturday. Nick Miceli ’17 got his league-leading fifth win this weekend, and he has a miniscule 1.49 ERA to boot. For a guy that pitched just 13 innings last year, those are some real solid numbers. Wesleyan is not as good as a year ago, but they have done a sensational job to this point and seem to be getting better each week.

2. Amherst (14-4, 4-2), Last Rankings: #1

I drop Amherst a spot because of their inability to sweep Hamilton or Williams in their first two weekend series. They haven’t lost a combined two games to those two teams in a season since 2010. I now am not 100 percent confident that they make the playoffs because Wesleyan still looms on the schedule. If Amherst gets swept in that series, the potential is there for someone (dare we say Middlebury!) to steal that second spot. Offensively Amherst is their typical selves, being among the best in the league at both hitting for power and stealing bases. The defense has been really bad in their conference games though with a fielding percentage of .911. It hasn’t really cost them big yet, but it makes me nervous.

3. Tufts (12-4, 2-0), Last Rankings: #4

The Jumbos haven’t done that much to move a spot, but Bowdoin has fallen off in conference so Tufts is the clear choice here. I don’t want to disparage Tufts; they were on a eight-game winning streak after all until losing to Roger Williams last night. Their team batting average is a really bad .282, but that is all part of their team philosophy. Their OBP is a more robust .418, the third best number in the league. Andrew David ’16 has proven beyond a doubt that he is a top of the line ace, and Speros Varinos ’18 isn’t far behind. The jury is still out on R.J Hall ’19, owner of a 1.09 ERA, and Tim Superko ’17 had his best start of the season last week. The rotation is not as deep as it has been in years past, and that leaves them somewhat vulnerable.

4. Hamilton (11-7, 1-2), Last Rankings: 5

I know I mentioned Middlebury when talking about Amherst’s potential to miss the playoffs, but Hamilton to me is the third-best team in the West right now. The problem for them is that they already lost two of three to Amherst, and the final game of that series was a heartbreaking loss in extra innings. That lineup really is not a joke. Five of their every game starters have an OBP better than .400, and guys like Brett Mele ’17 and Kenny Collins ’17 are still getting on-base at a rate better than 50 percent. The Continentals can get back on track for making an upset run if they sweep the Panthers. Anything less than that and they will need a lot of things to go right for them to have a good chance.

5. Bates (9-12, 2-3), Last Rankings: #7

I put Bates here above Trinity because I have more respect for the Bobcats track record over the past few years. I also have to give credit for them sweeping the doubleheader against Bowdoin on Saturday after the Bobcats came completely unraveled in a 13-1 loss on Friday. Connor Speed ’18 took home NESCAC Pitcher of the Week honors because of his six shutout innings as Bowdoin could not figure out the funky motion of the right-hander. There is no doubt that Bates got lucky in the second game of the doubleheader when Bowdoin had five errors that led to all nine runs being unearned in the 9-5 game. Their series against Trinity next weekend looms large.

6. Trinity (9-11, 4-2), Last Rankings: #6

Trinity, long a NESCAC powerhouse, is back, baby! No, the Bantams, a team that used to strike fear into teams because of their slugging ability, is certainly not anywhere close to the team they were years ago. They have gotten back-to-back series wins over Bowdoin and Colby to put themselves in position to make the playoffs, but they have to prove they can beat Bates or Tufts before I have full faith in them. I loved how Trinity looked in the first game on Saturday as Anthony Egeln ’18 went all seven innings and a Scott Cullinane ’16 hit a three run homer in the first that gave them a commanding lead early. That lineup can still be shut down by really good pitching, though.

7. Middlebury (6-11, 3-3), Last Week: #8

When do we start to believe in the Panthers? Not quite yet, especially because they are in the West and not the East division. That win over Wesleyan which I sort of glossed over when talking about the Cardinals was an impressive one. Middlebury played Wesleyan close in some games last year so it isn’t a total surprise. Wesleyan didn’t play terribly; the Panthers simply came ready to play. They did get some lucky breaks, though. At one point an errant back pick attempt careened off the noggin of 2B Jake Turtel ’18 and went out of play, immediately allowing two runs to score, and Turtel later scored on a bloopy double. Friend of the program Colby Morris ’19 pitched great to get the win, and the offense put up two different crooked numbers against Ethan Rode ’17. The Panthers need to win just one more conference game to match their wins in ALL games a season ago.

8. Bowdoin (12-8, 2-4), Last Week: #3

No team has seen their fortunes fall more than Bowdoin’s in the past two weeks as the Polar Bears have not kept up their strong play. We warned about that possibility given how much youth they have. Ben Osterholtz ’19, who had been sensational in his first few starts, finally got roughed up against Bates. The real problem, though, is the lineup is hitting worse and worse. Nobody on the team ranks in the top-25 for either BA or OBP, and as a group they are hitting below the Mendoza line in conference games. That production is not going to be enough for Bowdoin to make a late push to make the playoffs.

9. Williams (6-13, 2-4), Last Ranking: #10

The Ephs kept their slim playoff hopes alive by taking the last game of their series against Amherst because of two runs in the 9th inning. The Amherst starting pitchers shut down Williams in every game, and when their offense struggles, things are extremely difficult for them. Their run differential is much better than that of a 6-13 team, but those types of things are only so helpful at this point in the year. One does have to keep in mind that this is a relatively young team with the every pitcher of importance slated to return next season. Things are frustrating right now for Ephs fans, considering the strength of so many other programs at Williams, but they should be better soon.

10. Colby (5-13, 1-2), Last Ranking: #9

It is impressive that every team in the NESCAC already has a win in conference even though many teams have only played one series. The Mules actually missed a golden opportunity to win the series against Trinity. Tom Forese ’16 outdueled Jed Robinson ’16 in the first game of the series, but ace Soren Hanson ’16 got knocked around in the first game of the doubleheader in what was their best chance to win. If Forese can pitch that well in other weekends then the Mules have the makings of a very dangerous team. I still don’t think they have enough talent on the roster to make any serious noise, but you certainly can’t sleep on them in any given game.

Chaos in the East: Weekend Preview

Brendan Fox '17 is the only consistent weapon right now on a Bates team trying to make its third straight playoff appearance. (Courtesy of Bates Athletics) — Brendan Fox ’17 is the only consistent weapon right now on a Bates team trying to make its third straight playoff appearance. (Courtesy of Bates Athletics)

It might sound crass to say it so early in the conference season, but Wesleyan, Amherst and Tufts are all going to make the playoffs. I feel very confident saying that, though I hope that somebody proves me wrong. If that is the case, the most intriguing part of the regular season is seeing who gets that second spot out of the East. Bates has grabbed it the past two seasons, but both years they did it with a less than sterling 7-5 record. So who is it going to be in the second spot in the East this year?

This weekend will go a long way towards sorting that out with the four East Division teams besides Tufts meeting in conference series. Trinity (2-1 in conference) travels to Maine to play Colby who has yet to start their conference slate. Bates (0-2) and Bowdoin (1-2) meet in games that could almost eliminate the series loser from the playoff race. Projecting these two series is difficult, but that is what makes it fun.

As always, keep an eye on the weather too. The fields have taken a beating this week, and while the skies look fairly clear for the weekend, play today could be slightly disrupted.

Three to Watch

1. 1B Chad Martin ’16 (Bowdoin): That Polar Bear offense sputtered against Trinity as Bowdoin lost two of three. Martin has to get on track as the star in the middle of the lineup if Bowdoin is going to do well. He has an OBP. below .300 and a slugging percentage less than .400 so things have not gone for the All-NESCAC Second Teamer. The one silver lining is that he has two home runs, and that is a sign that he is still hitting the ball hard at points. My best guess is that he is trying to do too much righ now because he knows how much Bowdoin relies on him. Soooo, maybe not a good idea to put even more pressure on him, especially since I’m a Bowdoin fan. Ehh, whatever. I believe in Martin, and so should you.

2. IF Connor Reenstierma ’16 (Bates): Another offense that sputtered last weekend: that would the Bates Bobcats. What is killing Bates is not that they don’t have one guy doing great. Brendan Fox ’17 is having a fantastic junior season and is batting well above .400. The problem is that every single other guy is hitting well below their capabilities. Reenstierma is a guy that is great at getting on base. Though his batting average is usually much lower, he excels at working the count. Getting on-base alone might not be enough for Bates to get a good offense this weekend, but it would certainly help a lot. Bates is going to have to grind for everything they get all season, and this is the weekend when the grinding has to happen a lot.

3. P Ethan Rode ’17 (Wesleyan): I’m not paying any attention at all to the West, but there is the potential for one of the underdogs in the West to pull a fast one. Wesleyan is HOT right now winning their past seven games. One of the reasons for that is that Rode has gotten back on track. Things went as bad as they could in his first two appearances. Since then, he has delivered three dynamite starts for the Cardinals. In those three starts he has a 1.28 ERA. That should make other NESCAC teams very worried. Wesleyan’s offense has not fallen off from last season, and the possibility of Rode and Peter Rantz ’16 forming a formidable top of the rotation could spell game over.

Colby vs. Trinity Preview

The Bantams series win last weekend has them thinking playoffs, but Trinity won two of three last year against Bowdoin and still finished well outside the playoff race so don’t put too much stock in that. The Mules have struggled mightily so far this season, and there are real questions about the depth of talent on the roster.

You should know that Soren Hanson ’16 is a two-way stud for Colby, and he has been lights out on the mound with a 0.89 ERA in 20.1 IP. The Mules desperately need somebody else to deliver a quality start . I’m also intrigued with how Colby uses Hanson. Do they start him in the nine inning Friday game or save him for Saturday? I prefer pitching him Game 1 on Saturday since it is much more likely that he is able to go all seven than all nine on Friday. Nothing would be worse for the Mules than for Hanson to throw a gem for most of the game Friday, only for the bullpen to blow it late.

Trinity will probably toss Jed Robinson ’16 on Friday and Anthony Egeln ’18 has solidified that second spot. The third starter last week was Chris Speer ’17, and he is likely to start again. The games could easily hinge on an error by either team, and that favors the Bantams. I want to put my faith in the team from Hartford given the track record of that program, but it still isn’t clear if there is a lot of young talent beyond Brendan Pierce ’18. Even so, Colby is very down this year, and I think the Bantams become the frontrunner to get that second spot.

Prediction: Trinity wins two of three

Bowdoin vs. Bates Preview

I’ve already talked a little bit about how both offenses have struggled this season. That means pitching this weekend entails making no mistakes, ala walking a lot of batters or serving up a meatball in the wrong situation.

In this type of situation I give Bates the advantage because of their more experienced pitchers, but Bowdoin is still capable of throwing two seniors in Harry Ridge ’16 and Michael Staes ’16 that have the stuff to shut down a lineup. The weather in Maine is going to be cold and rainy, and that means pitchers have the advantage. Any fly ball is going to die in the air, not to mention the discomfort hitters will experience at the plate.

Both of these programs are solid, but they have not been able to scratch above that upper-middle class status at any point recently. It doesn’t appear that this year is going to be particularly different, and the first weekends games were downright disturbing. At the same time, a lot of talent remains on both of these squads. Sombody young might step up and make the difference, but my money is on old stalwarts like Rob DiFranco ’16 or Sean Mullaney ’17 to be the biggest stars. Bates has more of those players that have been around the block, and I think they keep themselves in the playoff race with a series win this weekend.

Prediction: Bates wins two of three

April Showers Bring…Snow?: Stock Report 4/6

This is not a NESCAC baseball field, but it is what some fields looked like because of the weather.

Nothing says “baseball” like six inches of snow, right? Believe it or not, it is spring in the NESCAC. Though we may be trudging through snow and having games canceled because of “inclement weather” (i.e. sudden blizzard in April?!?!), we will be able to see the field by this weekend, and there will be games played on them. The weather can only deprive us of NESCAC baseball (and MLB Opening Day games) for so long.

Braving mercurial weather conditions, the teams played their first of many NESCAC Division series Friday and Saturday (The games between Wesleyan and Colby do not count towards their conference record). While most NESCACs were delaying or postponing weekend matchups, Williams and Middlebury continued to soak up the gorgeous Arizona sun in their first NESCAC West series but have returned to NESCAC turf for the remainder of the season.

STOCK UP

Guys making—or remaking—history

Williams’ pitcher Luke Rodino ’17 and Hamilton’s 1B Andrew Haser ’17 did more than make a good first impression in their NESCAC openers.

Rodino threw a complete-game eight-hitter without walking a single batter. Alone, the accomplishment is pretty nice, but if you consider that no other Eph pitcher has done that in 37 games (i.e. 369 days ago), it’s amazing. As a result, Williams defeated rival Middlebury 8-2, improving their record to 5-8 overall and 1-0 in the NESCAC West. And here’s a fun fact for you: the last time Williams did not walk any batters was also thanks to Rodino’s arm.

If neither his NESCAC Player of the Week nod nor his clutch walk-off have sufficiently marked him as a threat at the plate, Andrew Haser’s ’17 school-record three home runs for Hamilton on Friday will certainly do the trick. The hotshot hit his home runs in consecutive innings against the team from Central Massachusetts; he’s racked up five so far this season, just two short of the program’s single-season mark, and 10 in his collegiate career (three away from yet another school record). At this rate, the junior will have no problem shattering those records before he graduates, let alone this year. I guess you could say he’s having a pretty good start to the season.

The underdogs-of-the-underdogs

It’s time to stop thinking about Middlebury as the team that comes in last in NESCAC standings each season and to start applauding their achievements as they come. The Panthers beat Williams in the final two games of a three-game NESCAC West series this weekend, first by virtue of a 2-1 crazy walk-off and then by a 11-4 tally in Saturday’s nightcap. The team has demonstrated noticeable improvement across the board. John Luke ’16 is Middlebury’s comeback kid: he seems to be making up for three years of mediocre hitting, as he now leads the team and most players in the NESCAC with his .432/.462/.595 slashline. Meanwhile, Jake Turtel ’18 has developed his skills all around, earning the starting 2B position after not playing much at all last season and racking up a .325/.372/.375 combination at bat. Former 2B Brendan Donohue ’18 has proven himself to be quite a wild card, moving around the diamond to LF and even to pitcher and maintaining his hitting reliability with a .320/.393/.400 slashline. Middlebury only committed two errors in three games (compared to Williams’ seven), and that solid command of the field is no doubt a result of diligent team growth.

Middlebury should really be excited by their arsenal of talented rookies. With speed and a strong arm, Sam Graf ’19 is an asset to the outfield with only one error in 12 games, while Spencer Tonies ’19 is making a big impact at shortstop (.441/.474/.559). Behind the plate, Phil Bernstein ’19 has been a great defensive force in the weekend’s games. Their progress may not mean that much right now, but in the long run, investment in the younger players will result in a more competitive team. No, the Panthers aren’t going to take the NESCAC West anytime soon, but if they keep up the good work, they may break free from their cycle of disappointment. Here’s looking at you, kids.

P Cole Dreyfuss ’16 (HAM)

Taking the mound after Hamilton’s 18-8 defeat against Amherst, Cole Dreyfuss ’16 ruled all seven innings of Saturday’s Game One. His imposing two-hitter force not only surprised Amherst but also made them visibly nervous. The senior captain held Amherst hitless for one stretch of 5.2 innings. With this victory, Dreyfuss earned his team-leading third win of the season, which raises his career record to 12-8 (third place on the team’s career wins list).

Although Amherst came out on top in the weekend’s series, winning two of the three games—albeit that the last one stretched into extra innings—Hamilton definitely showed both the flustered Jeffs and the entire NESCAC that the Continentals won’t be beaten without a hard fight. And most of that tenacity this weekend can be credited to Dreyfuss’s fantastic pitching.

STOCK DOWN

Bowdoin’s pitching

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. The Polar Bears’ early success was due to either hidden talent or mediocre competition, and right now, it’s looking like the latter. There’s no denying that Ben Osterholtz ’19 (0.66 ERA), Connor Rooney (1.13 ERA), and Harry Ridge (2.18 ERA) are good pitchers; Michael Staes ’16 (3.71 ERA) isn’t throwing poorly either. But as a team Bowdoin has only managed to secure a 4.28 ERA and a concerning 5.16 K/G, and when it comes to the NESCAC, that’s just ok. The power we saw—or thought we saw—during spring training has simmered out: it was all relative to the competition the Polar Bears’ faced rather than the competition they would ultimately see in conference games. Luckily, the team has a solid group of pitchers to continually develop over the season.

Colby

No one expects a bottom team to suddenly play a super competitive game against reigning champions, but the Mules had nothing in their favor during their brutal 21-1 loss to Wesleyan on Saturday.

The Mules are hardly poor hitters; with a .312 AVG, they are relatively average in the NESCAC and actually have fewer strikeouts than any other team. At the end of the day, the team just had the misfortune of going up against Peter Rantz ’16 and Nick Miceli ’17, so their failings at the plate are understandable. Determining the efficacy of their defense is more nuanced. In the first game of the DH, Colby had three errors compared to Wesleyan’s zero; in the second, the Mules had six errors compared to the Cardinals’ one. Considering that their .956 FPCT is identical to Amherst’s, it’s hard to say that sloppy defense is the sole culprit for the Mules poor start. Regardless, allowing 21 runs in nine innings—11 in one inning alone—isn’t the work of a stable squad.

Why did Colby give up so many hits? Last weeks’ Pitcher of the Week Soren Hanson ’16 put in a solid 6.1 innings in Game One, holding the Cardinals to just three runs. However, Game Two was basically a pitcher party to which seven different guys showed up. Right now, the team has a collective 9.35 ERA, and when you’re going down the roster for teammates to pitch in your game, you’re not looking at a drastic improvement. Put that ERA up against the most dangerous hitters in the team, and you’ve got Game 2. And that’s just ugly. The Mules can unquestionably improve their work both at the plate and in the field, but their efforts won’t make up for poor pitching. Putting together a more reliable rotation behind Hanson—one that will get your through DH weekends—needs to be Colby’s focus right now.

Amherst’s music selection

You know something’s really bad it the NSN announcer is making fun of it. In this case, he was begging Amherst to turn off the music. Sir, I feel your pain.

My tastes may be limited to 90s rock, but I can say without hesitation that whoever made the playlist for the Amherst-Hamilton series was completely out of their mind. Why would you ever switch back and forth between bubble-gum country and EDM? Or better yet, why would you ever—EVER—play “Let It Go” from Frozen during a baseball game? What happened to good old-fashioned Jock Jams?

Amherst DJ, I have quite an expansive knowledge of said Jock Jams and appropriate pump-up music and would be happy to be of assistance to you. But seriously—what were you thinking?

STOCK WAY DOWN

Mother Nature

Amherst-Hamilton’s nightcap was delayed due to torrential rainfall. All of Sunday’s games were postponed due to inclement weather. And the last two days I’ve woken up to snowfall.

Get your act together, Nature. Spring is for baseball, not building snow forts.

It’s No Joke–NESCAC Opening Weekend is Here: Weekend Preview 4/1

Chad Martin and the rest of Bowdoin prepares to take on Trinity this weekend. (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)

It’s spring in the NESCAC, and we all know what that means—no sun, rain, and a dreary atmosphere. This weekend, however, we have a reason to get outside—baseball’s opening weekend is finally here. While most NESCACs have returned north for the regular season, Middlebury and Williams are enjoying their last few days in the relative paradise of Arizona (where the temperature is cruising at a lovely 81 degrees).

Two to Watch

1. OF Kenny Collins ’17 (Hamilton): In the Continentals’ last week of spring training, Collins hit .500 and earned an OBP of .600, either hitting safely or walking in all four games of their games. In Hamilton’s 14-8 win against Bowdoin, he went 3-for-4 with three RBIs. Right now, he’s flaunting a .400 AVG, .510 OBP and .575 SLG. His hitting hasn’t yielded much distance yet—he’s only hit two doubles, one triple, and one homerun (yes, that walk-off one)—but Collins’ consistency and reliability will be a godsend against Amherst. Collins also has zero errors so far this year, and the Continentals need to play a clean defense if they want any chance of defeating the Jeffs.

2. SS Matt Moser ’16 (Tufts): Last week Moser had eight RBIs, plus an epic grand slam, in Tufts’ win at Averett and then was 3-6 with two runs and an RBI against Lynchburg. By the end of the week, he had racked up a total of 10 RBIs. Playing in all of Tufts’ six games of the week, he had multiple hits and runs in three of the games. He boasts a .535 slugging percentage and remains one of the Jumbo’s top batters. He will definitely make an appearance at shortstop this weekend, but his presence at the plate will be far more crucial for Tufts’ series against Bates.

The Picks
Opening weekend is jam-packed with NESCAC contests: Bowdoin vs. Trinity; Wesleyan vs. Colby; Williams vs. Middlebury. But when it comes to longevity—how these games and their participating teams will impact the 2016 season—two matchups bear the most intrigue.

Hamilton (0-0, 9-5) vs. Amherst (0-0, 10-2): Friday 3:30 PM, Saturday 12 PM & 2:30 PM
***If Friday’s matchup is rained out, the teams will reschedule the game for Sunday. This will be determined closer to game time.***

Who’s on the mound: Cole Dreyfuss ’16, Spencer Vogelbach ’18 & Dan DePaoli ’18 vs. Jackson Volle ’17, Riley Streit ’16 & Wilson Taylor ’19
(Hamilton head coach Tim Byrnes has yet to announce the order for his pitchers but designated these players as a part of his rotation. Amherst head coach Brian Hamm was unavailable, but it’s likely the Jeffs will rely upon some combination of these players.)

Hamilton is really unlucky at Amherst—the Continentals haven’t won a series there since 2007. This year, Hamilton’s squad looks stronger and more cohesive than in recent years, but history is working against them here.

Amherst has been the best team in terms of record thus far, but if you look at both teams’ overall stats, there isn’t much of a difference. At the plate, Hamilton’s holding a nice .356/.450/.483 line after 14 games compared to Amherst’s .332/.414/.448 after 12. The dangerous pack of Hamilton juniors, led by Brett Mele ’17, Ryan Wolfsberg ’17 and Collins, continues to torment pitchers. That hitting force will only grow stronger this weekend should CF Chris Collins ’17 and 3B Dean Rosenberg ’17 be cleared to return to the lineup in their 5 and 6 slots, respectively. Amherst’s Ariel Kenney ’18, Max Steinhorn ’18 and Yanni Thanopoulus ’17 lead the team with .408, .357 and .357 BA. Amherst has a lot of other guys capable of stepping this weekend too.

Their pitching stats are closer, 3.73 ERA for the Continentals and 3.82 for the Jeffs. Volle kicked off a stellar junior season over spring break with his 0.82 ERA after throwing for 22 innings. In Hamilton’s rotation, Vogelbach has seen about as many innings, and while his 3.00 ERA is mighty nice, it’s not on the same level as Volle’s. Actually, Hamilton’s rookie pitcher Max Jones ’19 holds the team’s lowest ERA, 1.59 in 17 innings pitched. The kid deserves major props—he missed a full season due to shoulder surgery before starting his collegiate career.

It’s only on the defense that Amherst really outplays Hamilton, as their .973 FPCT at 13 errors is far better than the latter’s .941 FPCT and 25 errors. Fielding percentage can be a fickle thing, but the propensity for Hamilton to let down their pitchers and committing a crucial error is there.

The Jeffs have always been main contenders in NESCAC baseball, especially in the last few seasons, giving them an upper hand. They excel in all five phases. Hamilton is the underdog, a big fish in a small pond of even bigger fish that hasn’t quite learned how to not flounder yet. The Continentals are definitely going to come out strong this weekend and give the hosts a tighter game than they’ve played in the past, but we don’t want to overvalue Hamilton’s fresh success over Amherst’s years of experience.

Prediction: Amherst wins two of three.

Tufts (0-0, 7-3) vs. Bates (0-0, 7-8): Saturday 1:00 PM & 3:30 PM, Sunday 1:00 PM

Who’s on the mound: Tim Superko ’17, Speros Varinos ’17, Andrew David ’16 & RJ Hall ’19 vs. Connor Colombo ’16, Connor Speed ’18 & Anthony Telesca ’17 (Both teams’ head coaches have yet to decide who will be the starting pitchers for each game but have designated these players in the rotation).

Isn’t it nice to have so many talented players that you can mix up the lineup without sacrificing skill and success? Tufts sure thinks so. Head coach John Casey emphasized the team’s great depth, saying that having an abundance of talented and experienced players has allowed for the team to experiment with rotations and lineups. The team had somewhat of a slow start to spring training, but now that NESCAC games are here, the Jumbos are ready to go. Superko and David have started a little slow, but they are proven pitchers. In 16 innings, Hall has struck out 17 batters, and his 1.13 ERA is one of the best in the conference.

Unlike Tufts, Bates is still stuck in a surprising rut with a less than favorable win percentage of 0.467. After making it to the NESCAC playoffs last season, the Bobcats are struggling to play competitive ball. Overall, they’ve been relatively successful on the mound, averaging 8.20 K/G and 4.87 ERA. Colombo, Telesca and Speed hold high positions in NESCAC standings with respective 1.74, 2.84 and 3.36 ERAs. The Connors are especially ruthless, striking out a total of 40 batters while allowing only 12 to walk. All three of those starters will be asked to go late into the game, and that will be difficult against the patient approach of Tufts.

Neither team, however, has the hitting power we like to see on both sides, with Tufts only averaging .302 and the plate while Bates trails behind them at an ugly .269. Tufts’ Harry Brown ’17, Moser and Cody McCallum ’16 have come into their own, hitting .615, .366 and .359, but we’re still waiting for Tommy O’Hara ’18 to pick up where he left off last season. Bates’ Brendan Fox ’17 has consistently been hitting dynamite, easily obtaining a nice .453/.500/.623 line, and John Dinucci ’17 also has a commendable baseline of .333/.370 /.392, but the other Bobcats have yet to pull their weight offensively. Either this will be the weekend both teams get their batting acts together or we will be seeing some low-scoring games.

Prediction: Tufts wins three.