January 2018 – Nothing But NESCAC

Better Late than Never: Men’s Basketball Stock Report 1/31

Stock Up

Jack Daly’s Foul Shooting

Jack Daly ‘18 has, by far, the most responsibility on his team of any player in the league. He plays around 35 minutes a game, handles the ball 90% of the time and guards the best player on the opposing team. And this responsibility only increases late in games, when every part of the offense runs through him. Of course, this makes his foul shooting incredibly important. More often than not, he is the one that teams will be fouling at the end of close games. So when he was struggling from the line, it was a HUGE problem for Middlebury. Overall, Daly is at 68% from the line, and underwent a 7-17 mess early in the season. But, as he so often does, Daly has raised his game when it counts. In league play, he is shooting 77% from the line, and single-handedly won Middlebury’s game against Trinity at the line with an amazing 18-20 showing. And as if that wasn’t impressive enough, last night he iced Keene State as well, going 8-8. Daly is the guy Middlebury will have at the line in big moments, and the way he’s shooting right now, Middlebury wouldn’t have it any other way.

Daly is dominating the league right now, and that dominance is finally extending to the foul line.

Amherst in League Play

I don’t think we’ll ever have a NESCAC season without Amherst in the mix. After looking nearly dead for much of the season, the Mammoths have roared (trumpeted?) back to life, winning three straight NESCAC games, including blowouts over Hamilton and Bowdoin. Amherst relies mostly on an excellent defense to win games; they are third in the league (behind Wesleyan and Trinity) in opponents PPG and FG%. But their offense is beginning to come around as well. Michael Riopel ‘18 is one of the deadliest three point shooters in the league, but has diversified his game nicely and is dangerous inside the arc as well. Johnny McCarthy ‘18 has had a fascinating career arc, and has reinvented himself again as a gritty paint presence and dominant rebounder. But the key to Amherst’s success (and failure early in the season) is their supporting cast. When Amherst wins, it is because guys like Grant Robinson ‘21, Eric Sellew ‘20 and Fru Che ‘21 are all contributing. Amherst needs the help, and lately they have been getting it. However, they still have yet to play Middlebury, Wesleyan or Williams in league play, so we may well be writing a different article about them in a couple weeks.

Stock Down

The NbN Curse

It’s starting to look like the best thing for a team’s chances this year is to not be hyped up by this blog. We put Hamilton at number one in the Power Rankings when they were 15-0 and demolishing all comers like Darth Maul, and since then they’ve lost two league games and needed overtime to beat Colby. Their vaunted offense has produced 71 PPG on under 40% shooting in the last four games, and they still have to play Tufts, Williams and Middlebury. Hamilton could fall out of the top 5, and it might all our fault. And as if hamstringing Hamilton wasn’t enough, we did a whole Game of the Week about how Bates was making a move, and then they went out and got cracked by a struggling Wesleyan team 68-50. They shot 33% from the field and 25% from three, and didn’t look especially like a team ready to make a move. If they don’t grab one upset this weekend (either Hamilton or Amherst,) they might not make it to the postseason at all. We apologize in advance to anyone who we write about this week.

Bates got bodied by Wesleyan last weekend, and it’s all our fault.

Middlebury F Matt Folger ‘20 (on offense)

One of the reasons for Jack Daly’s insane amount of responsibility on offense is that Folger, Middlebury’s best scorer (better than Daly even when he’s got it all working) has been really struggling shooting the ball. In league play, Folger is shooting just 36% from the field and 25% from three. Sophomores often struggle to maintain their improvement over their first season into NESCAC play (Matt St. Amour is a good recent example for Middlebury) and Folger is certainly having trouble dealing with increased defensive attention. The emergence of Eric McCord ‘19 as a dominant post scorer has forced Folger to try and create more on the perimeter, a place where he is still not very comfortable. However, he is also simply missing good looks. They will start to fall. And Folger deserves commendation, even during this slump, for his defensive intensity. His case for DPOY has only gotten stronger during the NESCAC season. He is second in the league in blocks and ninth in rebounds during league play, and his versatility has been the key to Middlebury’s seven game winning streak despite a team wide shooting slump. Against Williams, Middlebury’s biggest win of the year, Folger had four blocks and a steal, including an earth-shattering rejection on Matt Karpowicz that I still think about every night before bed. Folger will start hitting shots, and when he puts that together with his defensive dominance, watch out.

(Editor’s Note: Folger broke out a little bit last night against Keene State, putting up 22 points on 8-12 shooting, although still just 1-4 from three.)

The Rise of the Bobcats: Men’s Basketball Game of the Week Preview

Bates (9-9, 2-3) @ #14 Wesleyan (14-4, 3-2), 7:00 PM, Middletown, CT

Bates vs. Tufts was a worthy contender for game of the week, but due to Bates’ victory over the Jumbos last weekend, they are the team to beat for Wesleyan. Bates sits in ninth place in the standings, seemingly stuck in the abyss of basketball irrelevance. However, Tufts, who Bates beat 77-75, is sitting in third place at 3-2—only one game ahead of the Bobcats. Indeed, Bates is actually a huge wild card right now in terms of playoff seeding. They could spoil some better teams rankings, and if they can win this one and take down Trinity, they are assured of a playoff spot. This cramming of the standings shows the remarkable parity of the conference and how so much is left to chance with half of the regular season remaining. Not only are there solid teams sitting on the outside looking in, but there are perennial powers just one game out of the similar irrelevance that Bates is facing. This matchup puts power against bottom feeder, while the end result could completely flip the switch on their places in the standings, playoff potential, and power rankings.

Overview:

While Bates is only 2-3 in conference, they have already played Tufts, Midd, and Williams, with their only bad loss coming against Colby. Jeff Spellman ’20, Tom Coyne ’20, and Nick Lynch ’19 are all above average for the conference at their position and are threats on both sides of the ball against what has been an inconsistent Wesleyan team. Regardless of how their shooting accuracy has fluctuated recently, the Cardinals still have only lost to Williams in OT and #16 Hamilton. Therefore, they will compete independent of shooting struggles and can compete with any team in the nation, giving them a clear edge against a Bates team fighting to get into the conversation of relevance.

Wesleyan X-Factor: Passing Game

With O’ Brien out, role players like Elijah Wilson will be responsible for keeping the ball moving and keeping turnovers down against Bates.

Wesleyan is last in the NESCAC with just 14.6 assists per game, leading to a lower shooting percentage (45.9%) than their overall record would indicate. They have had some real duds in terms of ball distribution, like against Hamilton, where they recorded just seven assists on the night, no more than one for any player. The assist numbers were similar in their narrow win over Amherst, with just 10 total assists for the team. While not a clear indication of success, more assists should correlate to better possessions and better shots which should improve the shooting percentage and limit the unusual poor performances from the star players who get caught trying to do too much. Distribution has seen a steep decline since team leader Kevin O’Brien ’19 went down with an injury, taking away 6.5 assists per contest which are heavily missed of late. Jordan Sears ’18 has been taking his place in the starting lineup, putting up five assists in a blowout win over Conn College, but otherwise not having a similar impact to O’Brien. Sears and the first year stand out Austin Hutcherson (second on the team in assists with 2.2 per contest) are going to be the keys to keeping the ball away from Bates.

Bates X-Factor: G Tom Coyne ‘20

In their mid-season defining win against Tufts, Coyne came off the bench to shoot 4-5 from deep, tallying up those 12 points in just 21 minutes played. He electrified the Bobcats and will be a key piece to their performance against Wesleyan. While Jeff Spellman leads the team with 17.0 PPG, Coyne is second with 13.4 PPG. A recent move out of the starting lineup has taken a chunk out of his shot totals for game which rose as high as 20 in a non-conference game against Brandeis, but his sharp-shooting is still one of the biggest parts of the Bobcats’ success. His accuracy will be the biggest unknown of the game as he will be needed for Bates, ranked ninth in the conference in PPG at 73.3 to keep up with Wesleyan’s diverse scoring arsenal. This underdog team is also ranked 10th in 3PT shooting percentage at 32.1%, in line with Coyne’s season average, and if he didn’t shoot well above that against the Jumbos, his team would be sitting at 1-4 overall in NESCAC play. Although he moved to the bench, he still has a large stake in influencing the outcome of the game and he will need to be ready to go for the 9th place team to have a shot to win.

Final Thoughts:

Last time I previewed one of Wesleyan’s games, I highlighted Jordan Bonner’s downturn in scoring efficiency. Since then (right before their 76-70 loss to Hamilton), he has decreased his shooting attempts per game, handing more to Nathan Krill and Austin Hutcherson. While Krill and Hutcherson have both been excelling recently, combining for 33 points and 13 boards against Amherst two weekends ago, they shot poorly against Hamilton, going 5-22 combined. That weekend was the last time the Cardinals played a solid team as they easily rolled over Conn College last weekend and dominated in their non-conference games. In a game where Bates’ leading scorer Spellman could take over the scoreboard, the trio of Bonner, Krill, and Hutcherson will need to be on their A-game from the field.

Bates should be greedy to attack another top-dawg in the NESCAC after falling in the week’s Power Rankings from eighth on 1/17 to ninth after their upset of Tufts. While most of the stuff Pete writes is controversial in some way, it is hard for me to see how a team goes down after beating a team ranked above them (Editor’s Note: Rude.) Nevertheless, this is another chance for the Bobcats to prove their haters wrong with Spellman and Nick Lynch leading the way in scoring and on defense. Lynch, like Coyne, has a huge responsibility, albeit Lynch’s on defense. Lynch leads the Bates team with 8.5 boards per game with Coyne coming in behind him with just 4.2 rebounds per game. Lynch will need to matchup against Wesleyan’s Nathan Krill who hauls in over nine boards of his own. The two 6’7” bigs will be another marquee matchup in this already loaded contest. Bates is not expected to win and needs to do everything right as they did against Tufts and then some to pull it out, but if they do they immediately become a real threat to other top NESCAC teams.

Writer’s Pick: Wesleyan 77-71

Someone’s Gotta Lose: Women’s Basketball Game of the Week Preview

#3 Bowdoin vs #1 Amherst: 1/27, 3 PM, Amherst, MA

The Bowdoin Polar Bears will be traveling to Amherst, Massachusetts, to square off in a battle of unbeatens. After Saturday, there will likely be only one unbeaten team left in the conference. Amherst has been the top team in the league for a while, and Bowdoin attempts to dethrone them of that title. Here is a preview of the game of the week starting with a breakdown of each team, a coaching comparison, key players comparison, a final word, and my prediction:

#3 Bowdoin (18-0 overall, 4-0 conference):

General Statistics:

Bowdoin has the most potent offense in the league averaging 86 ppg, 20 apg, 40% 3pt, and 48% from the field. They haven’t played a very strong schedule relative to Amherst. Bowdoin elected to stay local during winter break, while Amherst traveled across the country to face top talent. Bowdoin currently ranks #3 in the country, and could jump to #1 if they can pull out the victory.

Offensive Breakdown:

Bowdoin has a wealth of scoring in which no one player dominates like Bates’ Davenport. Instead, the top scorer (Abby Kelly ’19) doesn’t even break fifteen points per game. Kelly, along with Kate Kerrigan ’18 (more on her below) each average double figures, and Bowdoin has four more players averaging over seven points per game. This will put pressure on Amherst’s defense because limiting one player’s offense won’t ensure a victory. The assists and three point percentage convey Bowdoin’s strong offensive playmakers and a diversity of assets.

Abby Kelly ’19 is Bowdoin’s leading scorer, and one of the more efficient outside shooters in the league.

Defensive Breakdown:

Even though Bowdoin has been known for its offense this year, a strong case for Bowdoin’s success originates from its defensive play. The Polar Bears only allow 46 ppg and 32% from the field. However, these numbers can be skewed due to weaker opponents. The only major challenge was Tufts in early January, and Bowdoin dominated the ‘Bos on both ends of the floor— beating them by twelve.

#1 Amherst (18-0 overall, 4-0 conference):

General statistics:

Amherst brings a strong offense, but not nearly as prolific as Bowdoin. Amherst averages 65 ppg, 14 apg, 34% 3pt, 43% from the field. Take the difference in statistics with a grain of salt because of the strength of schedule difference. Amherst traveled to Nevada and California to compete against better talent than Bowdoin. In addition, Amherst is ranked #1 in the country. The only close game for the squad was a nine point win over archrival Williams.

Offensive breakdown:

Like Bowdoin, there’s no unbelievable scorer that can take over the game. There are several scorers who average over 10 ppg (Madeline Eck ’20 and Hannah Fox ’20) that provide consistent offense. This bodes well for Amherst because there’s no one scorer who can be shut down; the scoring well won’t dry up. I think that Amherst’s offense will be their best defense in defending Bowdoin. That is, Amherst will want to control the time of possession. They won’t take many quick threes in transition, and will set up their halfcourt offense looking for buckets inside the arc. This ball control will slow down Bowdoin, and possibly get them out of their comfort zone.

Defensive Breakdown:

Defense wins championships, and Amherst’s defense has gotten them two. They only allow 39 ppg with 28% shooting. Those are incredibly low numbers. How do they do it? Fundamentals. Amherst has an uncanny ability to make the opposing offense take bad shots. This comes from limiting second chance opportunities, and closing out hard on shooters. Amherst is certainly athletic, but they win because of disciplined fundamentals and technique.

Amherst is the most dominant defense in the country, and has won 51 games in a row because of it.

Coaching Comparison:

There’s no doubt that both coaches are up for NESCAC coach of the year. The influence these coaches bring to their respective programs cannot be understated. College kids can get demotivated during the late days of December and early January. Non-winter athletes aren’t on campus, and first semester has concluded. Since basketball has a heavy game schedule, one would think that a bad game for one of these programs could occur. Especially because Amherst is #1, and Bowdoin is #3, they have bullseyes on their backs. G.P. Gromacki of Amherst and Adrienne Shibles of Bowdoin have guided their teams to perfect seasons so far. Gromacki is a two time national champion at Amherst— compiling an unheard of 313-24 record. Shibles’ career at Bowdoin has been stellar as well. Shibles has a 212-60 record at Bowdoin. Bowdoin has always put a good squad on the court, but Shibles has brought it to a new level. The Saturday game will provide a challenge for both teams, since they play another important conference game on Friday. I’m sure that strong coaches like Shibles and Gromacki will stress the importance of the Friday games. In so many sports there are instances in which the favored team loses to the underdog due to looking too far forward. The Pittsburgh Steelers provided an example to us this season of how a very good team can lose. The Bowdoin vs Amherst game will inevitably be close, so coaching will be the difference maker. Gromacki has obviously be there before, but Shibles doesn’t lack any experience either.

Player Comparison: Madeline Eck (Amherst) vs Kate Kerrigan (Bowdoin)

Madeline Eck ’20 (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

In sports, trying to play to the opponent’s weakness can be detrimental. Teams should always go with their strengths (aka my best against your best). I know teams love to exploit matchups, but at the end of the day, it’s your best player taking the final shot no matter who’s guarding him or her. Enter Madeline Eck ’20 and Kate Kerrigan ’18. I keep referencing Nina Davenport from Bates because she’s such an outstanding scorer, but Eck and Kerrigan are equally as vital to their team as Davenport is even though they don’t put up those insane numbers. Both Eck and Kerrigan put over ten points a game, but most importantly, they dominate areas besides scoring. Kerrigan has two Defensive Player of the Year awards under her belt already, and could add an overall POY trophy this year if she keeps this up. She averages nearly five assists per game, top

Kate Kerrigan ’18 (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)

s in the league, and shoots almost 40% from three and 56% overall from the field. And Eck has raised her game in the big moments, averaging nearly 17 points per game in NESCAC play. She can be a dominant defender as well, averaging 1.2 steals per game. Coach Gromacki and Coach Shibles trust that their respective players will make the play with the ball in their hands. A stat that stands out to me is that both players rebound the ball very well for guards. The ability to play great defense, and finish the defensive play by snatching the rebound is crucial. This matchup of guards is one to look forward to.

Final Words:

Bowdoin hasn’t been in a close game yet, winning all of their games by at least ten points (by the way, an absolutely absurd stat.) However, this level of dominance could hurt them in playing against a really good team like Amherst. Like Bill Belichick says, ‘sixty minutes.’ Bowdoin needs to play a full game in order to beat Amherst. If Bowdoin wants to be the best, they have to beat the best. Amherst has proven that they’re the best, so it’s up to Bowdoin to dethrone them.

Prediction:

The game will be tight. It’s a very good defense matched up with an incredibly potent offense. I’m not sure if Bowdoin will be able to put up the points they normally do against a tough defense like Amherst. However, Bowdoin has been proving doubters wrong all year. I’m taking Bowdoin over Amherst this year because I believe it’s their year to make a serious bid at a national championship.

Score Prediction: 68-64 Bowdoin

Halfway There: Men’s Basketball Power Rankings 1/25

What a week, what a week. Tom Brady and the polarizing Patriots calmly came back from down 10 in fourth quarter of the AFC championship and my very own Bobcats edged Tufts on a game winner with just seconds remaining. Life is good. Anyways, in what was a one-game week for every team in the NESCAC (besides Trinity who was idle), we actually got to see a decent amount of action. Williams and Middlebury clashed in another battle of the titans, Bates took down the suddenly struggling Jumbos, and Amherst either proved that Hamilton isn’t as good as we thought or that the Mammoths are better than we thought. Who knows. The upcoming week should tell a lot as we get past the halfway point in the season, but at the moment there is much to sort through.

#10 Middlebury (14-3, 4-1)

Last week: 70-66 W vs. Williams

This week: @ Trinity

As seen in this week’s stock report, Joey Leighton ‘20 and Hilal Dahleh ’19 were highlights in the huge win over Williams this past week. Jack Daly ’18 had another good game, but his 8 turnovers were a bit frightening. Anyone can beat anyone in this league, so he’ll definitely need to be a bit sharper as we move forward. Middlebury appears to be finding their identity, so the rest of the conference should be very, very afraid. The Panthers will likely take care of business this week against Trinity to remain on the throne, but stay tuned to see if the Bantams are able to give them a scare.

#16 Hamilton (16-1, 3-1)

Last week: 75-49 L @ Amherst

This week: @ Bowdoin, @ Colby

We all knew it would happen. We just didn’t know when. The loss to Amherst was embarrassing (to say the least), but it was just one game. Everyone is bound to lose at some point, but it’ll be important to see how Hamilton responds this week against the bottom half of the league. Kena Gilmour ’20 has been a stud, but he needs to do more than the 7-point, 3-rebound effort he put up against Amherst if the Continentals are going to win in a league driven by star power. His supporting cast is there, but Gilmour has to lead the way. Their three-point shooting numbers have also taken a dip recently, which seemed inevitable, but we’ll see if Hamilton can regain their footing.

#15 Williams (14-4, 3-2)

Last week: 70-66 L @ Middlebury

This week: @ Trinity

James Heskett ’19 is making a strong case for best scorer in the league, as he still put up 19 against Middlebury despite a slow start shooting the ball. The Panthers were able to slow down the sharpshooting duo of Heskett and Bobby Casey ’19 just enough to pull off the huge win. Williams was held to just 35.9% from the field, which was really the best indication of how that game against Middlebury went. They simply weren’t hitting shots, and that’s not how you beat the best teams. I don’t believe there is much cause for worry despite the Ephs losing two of their last three NESCAC games. Look for Coach App to get them back on track with their only matchup this week on the road against Trinity.

James Heskett may well be the Player of the Year.

#14 Wesleyan (13-4, 3-2)

Last week: 89-51 W vs. Conn College

This week: vs. Bates, vs. Tufts

Wesleyan did what they needed to do in a trouncing of Conn College. This weekend will be very telling of a Cardinals squad that has been tough to get a read on. Bates is coming off a big win and have shown that they’re capable of competing, whereas Tufts is reeling after losing two of their last three. Kevin O’Brien ’19 hasn’t played in almost three weeks, and we don’t have word as to why, but this is a big blow. Wesleyan is very dependent on O’Brien both as an elite defender and as a point guard. Austin Hutcherson ’21 is doing a nice job filling in, but the Cardinals are hurting from the loss of O’Brien. They have a lot to prove this weekend, so keep an eye on the results from Middletown.

Tufts (13-5, 3-2)

Last week: 77-75 L vs. Bates

This week: @ Conn College, @ Wesleyan

Despite Vincent Pace ‘18 looking like frontrunner for POY, Tufts has struggled recently. They lost to Middlebury last week in an ugly game, and then were nudged by Bates, 77-75 this past weekend. Bates played well and has shown glimpses of outstanding basketball, but has been inconsistent, and that was a game that the Jumbos definitely should have won. Conn College should be a relatively easy win for Tufts, but Saturday they’ll be tested yet again versus a hard-to-read, but talented Wesleyan team. That matchup will help show who’s ready to take a leap, and who’s going to stay in the middle. There really is no rest for the weary in the NESCAC.

Amherst (10-6, 2-2)

Last week: 75-49 W vs. Hamilton

This week: @ Colby, @ Bowdoin

Amherst looked like the Goliath they always have been in a trampling of Hamilton. Johnny McCarthy ’18 put up a monster 12-point, 15-rebound double-double, providing the lead role, as he needs to for this Mammoth squad. There hasn’t been a ton of help from the supporting cast, however Eric Sellew ’20 has been provided a solid third option alongside McCarthy and Michael Riopel ’18. They are an absolute nightmare on defense as they showed against the Continentals, and this will be important to help keep their offense in games. If the Mammoths cruise to two victories this weekend, maybe it’s time for us to start giving them another look.

Michael Riopel ’18 has been one of the more efficient scorers in the league, and looks to bring Amherst back to the top tier.

Trinity (13-4, 2-2)

Last week: non-conference

This week: vs. Williams, vs. Middlebury

Trinity, much like Wesleyan, has been puzzling to figure out. A few weeks ago, they took down Amherst. More recently they dropped a game to Colby, only scoring 51 points. I guess what they have shown is that if they come to play, they’re capable of competing, but if they don’t show up, they roll over. This is an unfortunate outlook given that they’re taking on Williams and Middlebury this week. Regardless, they are a team with a lot of athleticism who has the ability to show up and give anyone a game. Things could get even more blurry in the NESCAC if the Bantams steal one this weekend, so fear the chicken.

Bowdoin (13-4, 2-2)

Last week: 83-77 W vs. Colby

This week: vs. Hamilton, vs. Amherst

Bowdoin has a promising overall record at 13-4, but they haven’t proven anything yet in conference play. They beat Bates and now Colby, but fell to Tufts and Trinity, which really doesn’t tell us too much. Reigning player of the week David Reynolds ’20 provides another go-to guy along with Jack Simonds ’19, and has now found his way into the starting lineup. He torched Colby to the tune of 29 points and 8 rebounds, while going 11-21 from the field, including 6-9 from deep. Reynolds adds to this potent Polar Bear offense that averages over 80 points per game. This will be a telling weekend, as Hamilton and Amherst each give Bowdoin a chance to prove something to the rest of the league.

With Jack Simonds ’19 struggling from the field, Reynolds has become the real star of the Polar Bears.

Bates (9-9, 2-3)

Last week: 77-75 W @ Tufts

This week: @ Wesleyan, @ Conn College

Bates picked up a signature win on the road at Tufts on a wild Nick Gilpin ’20 layup with 8 seconds left. This is the type of game that shows how dangerous Bates can be, and that they are a force to be reckoned with. The only reason they fall this week is because of a poor out of conference effort, and two losses to Bowdoin this season. Or maybe because I want my Bobcats to prove something with a few big wins. Either one. James Mortimer ’21 has found a spot in the starting lineup and has added a huge spark to this young Bobcat lineup. His size and shooting ability allow him to be tough on both ends of the court, and make him very versatile. If the Tufts game was any indication, we should see the Bobcats rise in the rankings as they have two big games in Connecticut this week.

Colby (10-7, 1-3)

Last week: 83-77 L @ Bowdoin

This week: vs. Amherst, vs. Hamilton

The Mules had a chance to move up when they traveled to Brunswick, but came up short and ultimately remain just above the basement of the league. Colby isn’t a bad team by any means, but they just lack the star power to compete with the top teams. They have good players (see Dean Weiner ’19), but they lack a pure scorer who can take over games. The win over Trinity is certainly a good one and a building point, but at the moment, the Mules have a long way to climb. They could make things more interesting this weekend by sneaking away with a win when they host the Mammoths and Continentals.

Connecticut College (6-11, 0-5)

Last week: 89-51 L @ Wesleyan

This week: vs. Tufts, vs. Bates

Nothing has gotten better for the poor Camels, who were housed by Wesleyan this past weekend. At this point, they’re planning for the future in New London, and we could potentially start to see different schemes and different guys getting involved for Conn College. Then again, the ‘CAC is weird and you never know what could happen on a given day. The best I can say is that Conn is a trap game, however they are yet to do any of this alleged trapping, so it is hard to even give them that. Bates and Tufts come to town this weekend, so hopefully things start to look up for the Camels.

The ‘CAC is Stranger than Fiction: Men’s Basketball Stock Report 1/23

Stock Up

Bates

The Bobcats are really raising their game in NESCAC play, particularly against the best teams. They gave #11 Middlebury a terrific game in an 82-76 loss two weekends ago, but it was last weekend that Bates showed signs of being a dangerous spoiler as we near the playoffs. They should have won their 83-81 loss to the 13-3 Salem State, setting them up for a very tough road game against Tufts in Medford. But Bates was ready. They hung with the Jumbos for the whole game, ultimately winning on a layup by Nick Gilpin ’20 with eight seconds left on the clock. The reasons for Bates’ turnaround can be boiled down to shooting. Bates has always relied on the three pointer, but now they are hitting them. In this recent four game stretch, they are shooting 42% from three. Jeff Spellman ’20 is a legit go-to scorer, averaging 17.4 PPG on 53% shooting in league play. Tom Coyne ’18 has also stepped up of late, shooting 40% from three in league play, including 4-8 against Tufts. When Bates is hitting shots, they can hang with almost anyone.

Middlebury Guards Joey Leighton ‘20 and Hilal Dahleh ’19

Joey Leighton ’20 (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)

Look I had the margin and winner right in my preview of the Middlebury-Williams showdown, but my Middlebury Key Player was way off. It turned out not to be Max Bosco ’21 (who is still going to swing a key game this season, mark my words) but the other Middlebury guards who turned the tide against the Ephs, namely Dahleh and Leighton. Both players are essential to Middlebury’s success. They have been the only consistent outside shooters on the roster in NESCAC play, at 44% and 50% from three respectively, and won the WIlliams game. They combined for 34 points on 13-21 shooting, 4-5 from three. When Middlebury struggles, it is when Jack Daly ’18 is forcing shots because there is no scoring from anywhere else on the floor. Dahleh is also a terrific defender and is crafty getting to the rim, while Leighton has shown flashes of being able to create for himself off the dribble with a nice step back move. If either or both of these players can continue to put up double figures, Middlebury’s offense could hit a new gear. Also, don’t be surprised to see Leighton maybe climb into the starting lineup over first year Jack Farrell ’21 if Coach Brown feels more firepower is needed.

Amherst’s Defense

From good news (Middlebury winning) we go to bad news (Amherst winning.) I kid, I kid. But seriously, the Mammoths, after looking dead in the water for much of the season, made Hamilton look like a JV team last weekend in handing the Continentals their first loss. And they did pretty much all of their damage on the defensive end. They held Hamilton, the best offense in the league so far by pretty much every statistical measure, to 49 points on 29% shooting. Hamilton had four assists against 14 turnovers, and weren’t able to find any room in the paint. Amherst outrebounded them 48-34 and blocked 10 shots. And there were good signs on the offensive end for Amherst as well. Johnny McCarthy ’18 (12 points, 5-6 shooting continued to trend upwards in terms of efficiency after a rough start) and Eric Sellew ’20 had one of his best games. Amherst’s offense still has a ways to go before it is dangerous, but against Hamilton they showed signs of having the kind of defense that makes it not matter.

Stock Down

Tufts

Sure Bates hit some threes, but Tufts has to be able to take care of the Bobcats at home. And indeed, the Bates loss was the continuation of the struggles that allowed Middlebury to blow them out in the second half the night before; namely, three point shooting and effort. Middlebury had an impossible 70 rebounds in their game against the Jumbos, a combination of many missed shots and Tufts being several steps slow to the ball. And although they out-rebounded Bates, they only shot 1-17 from downtown, and were still unable to put the Bobcats away despite being up six with four minutes left at home, the perfect time to put the nail in the coffin. Tufts looked to be right back in the mix for the top seed, but they may still have a long way to go.

Vincent Pace ’18 had 24 points against Bates, but it wasn’t enough.

Hamilton’s Three Point Shooting

We already covered how dominant Amherst’s defense was against the Continentals, but Hamilton has been struggling from the outside for a while now, and it is really impacting their offense. Although they still lead the league in overall three point shooting at 37%, in league play they have fallen to seventh at just 33%. They have shot under 32% from three in five of their last six games. G Tim Doyle ’19 has especially fallen off a cliff, hitting just 6 of his last 28 three pointers. Kena Gilmour ’20 isn’t a reliable three point threat and neither is Peter Hoffmann ’19, so if no one is hitting around those two dominant paint and mid range scorers, teams can pack it in and really hamstring the pace and spacing of the Hamilton offense. It’s definitely not too late for Hamilton to crater like they did last season, and if they do, three point shooting will be the culprit.

Peter Hoffmann and the Hamilton offense have hit a snag of late, and it’s due to a lack of three point shooting.

Rivalry Week: Williams @ Middlebury Game of the Week Preview

#11 Williams (12-3, 3-1) @ #16 Middlebury (11-3, 3-1), Saturday, January 20, 3:00 PM, Middlebury, VT

Overview:

The Ephs and the Panthers have become the NESCAC equivalent of the Cavs and Warriors in recent years. The teams met three times last season, including for the NESCAC Championship and in the NCAA Elite Eight. Williams ultimately got the last laugh, beating Middlebury in Pepin Gymnasium to advance to the Final Four. Both teams have carried over that success into this season. They are each ranked in the top 20 in the country, and have battled it out for the top spot in the league all season, along with Wesleyan and Hamilton.

However, both teams are far from unbeatable. Williams is without their star player, Kyle Scadlock ’19, for the rest of the season with a knee injury, and Middlebury’s shooting struggles are starting to become incredibly worrying. Middlebury’s NESCAC loss is to Wesleyan, whom Williams beat for their best win. And Williams’ lone NESCAC loss is to Tufts, whom Middlebury just beat handily at home for their best win. All this is to say that both these teams are again tremendously evenly matched, and this game should have huge ramifications for league standings and the playoff picture overall.

Middlebury X-Factor: G Max Bosco ’21

Max Bosco ’21
(Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)

At first glance, this pick might seem to be coming out of left field. Bosco has played fewer minutes than his fellow first year guards Jack Farrell ’21 and Griffin Kornacker ’21, primarily due to his smaller stature and struggles to create shots for others off the dribble. Farrell and Kornacker are both miles ahead of Bosco defensively at this point, and Joey Leighton ’20 is certainly more confident offensively. But Bosco can really shoot the ball. He hasn’t gotten a lot of chances yet, but his stroke is as sweet as anyone’s. Middlebury is the worst three point shooting team in the league, and second worst overall from the field. The clutch heroics of Jack Daly and excellent team defense will not be able to save the Panthers against Williams; they have to hit some outside shots to match Williams’ three point heavy attack. Bosco is capable of doing so. Additionally, his defensive struggles will not be as pronounced against the Ephs. Bobby Casey ’20 and Mike Greenman ’18, and even Cole Teal ’18, are an excellent group of players, but they are not large. Casey and Teal will be handled by Daly and Hilal Dahleh ’19, leaving Bosco matched with the 5’8″ Greenman. Bosco has a great opportunity this game to do what he does best; hit shots.

Williams X-Factor: F Matt Karpowicz ’20

We gave Karpowicz a lot of love in the stock report earlier this week, and that’s not just because he wrote some average football articles for us in the fall. Karpowicz is often unstoppable on the block, shooting 73% from the field, almost all in the paint. He splits time with Michael Kempton ’19, another very large person. As longtime reader Howard Herman pointed out, the two players offer very different looks for the offense. Kempton is a distributor, averaging 2 assists per game despite only playing 15 minutes. However, he is not a scoring threat, only shooting 42% from the field. Karpowicz is a game-changing scorer, and draws a lot of attention on the block, freeing up dominant shooters like Casey and James Heskett ’19. Indeed, in Williams’ closer games he ends up playing most of the crunch time minutes. I expect Middlebury to get a far heavier dose of Karpowicz than Kempton. Middlebury’s Nick Tarantino ’18 is a great athlete, but struggles with strong post scorers who can back him down and neutralize his length and leaping ability. And Adisa Majors ’18 is simply undersized, no matter which big man Williams has in. This means that Eric McCord ’19 is the guy, and has to avoid the foul trouble that hurt him against Albertus Magnus. In a game in which Middlebury must game plan heavily for Casey and Heskett, Karpowicz is the guy for whom Middlebury has no answer for on their roster.

Expect Matt Karpowicz to far exceed is 15 minutes per game on Saturday.

Final Thoughts:

James Heskett is certainly on the short list for Player of the Year, along with his teammate Bobby Casey, Jack Daly and Hamilton’s Kena Gilmour. He’s very long, with a gorgeous jump shot and incredible quickness for his size. Indeed, he’s been arguably the best shooter in the league this season, hitting 51% from the field and 43% from three. Luckily for Middlebury, however, they have one of the only players in the league who can match his skill set, if not his efficiency, in Matt Folger ’20. Along with the rest of the Panthers, Folger’s shooting numbers have taken a hit of late, but he is still a deadly scorer inside and out. And more importantly for this match up, he is miles ahead of Heskett defensively. Heskett’s skill set and athleticism have not yet translated to that end, as he averages just 0.3 blocks per game and 0.9 steals. Even more jarring is that he averages just 3.8 rebounds a night, despite being 6’8.” Folger, on the other end, has clearly focused on the defensive side of the ball. He is second in the league in blocks at 2.4, and grabs 8.1 rebounds a night. If Folger can outscore Heskett, Middlebury has a good chance to win.

James Heskett and Matt Folger are the crucial matchup to watch.

Rebounding may well be the key to Middlebury’s chances in this game. The Panthers are a bona fide dominant team on the glass. Their numbers are skewed by pulling down a ridiculous 70 against Tufts, but they still lead the league in total rebounds, offensive rebounds, and are second in rebounding margin. Williams is towards the bottom of the league in all of those categories. For a team that struggles shooting like Middlebury does, offensive rebounds are a must have statistic, and were what kept them in the game against Tufts until they pulled away in the second half. Williams is a team Middlebury can bully on the glass, creating second chances if shots aren’t falling.

Last thing: this could be a huge game for Jack Daly. He historically raises his game against Williams, but this isn’t just his already covered “clutch gene.” Williams doesn’t really have an answer for his strength at the guard spots. Greenman is far too small, and Bobby Casey isn’t particularly strong defensively. In fact, Williams doesn’t have a single player averaging more than one steal per game. Even their big men are occaisionally timid inside, with the notable exception of Karpowicz. This means that Daly is usually able to get to the basket easily against the Ephs. He’ll draw attention to the paint, and he’s the best in the country at finding open players once he gets around the basket. The key will be how many shots those players can hit.

Writer’s Prediction:

No longtime readers will be surprised by this, but I think Middlebury, on the backs of Jack Daly and an assuredly raucous home crowd, pulls this one out.

Middlebury 75, Williams 71

NESCAC’S Most Wanted: Men’s Basketball Power Rankings 1/17

Finally the order of teams is starting to have some clarity. Hamilton finally saw their first ranked opponent in Wesleyan and took care of business, cementing themselves as the team to beat at this point without a blemish on their record. Middlebury knocked off Tufts who knocked off Williams, putting into question the 2-5 spots in these rankings. However, this weekend should bring more clarity as Williams’ true talent level without Kyle Scadlock will be tested against Middlebury. The teams in the bottom half have largely only played each other, with Trinity looking like the “best of the rest.”

1. #14 Hamilton (14-0, 3-0)

Last Week: 76-70 W vs. Wesleyan, 102-77 W @ Conn College

This Week: @ Amherst

And now they are legit. After knocking off Wesleyan at home, the Continentals are proven to be the real deal. While this spot at the top of the Power Rankings may be temporary, their spot in the D3 Top 25 is well deserved despite an easy preseason schedule. Wesleyan was the first difficult NESCAC opponent that Hamilton beat (Trinity and Conn are the other two), and with Wesleyan’s opening weekend win against Middlebury, Hamilton is further cemented as a real NESCAC contender. Their game against Amherst should be a high scoring win with a large margin of victory if all else remains the same with Kena Gilmour the centerpiece of Hamilton’s offense. He poured in 20 points in a defensive heavy game against the Cardinals despite only shooting 1-7 from deep.

2. #11 Williams (12-3, 3-1)

Last Week: 69-63 L vs. Tufts, 79-68 W vs. Bates

This Week: vs. Amherst, @ Middlebury

There is no doubt that Williams is weaker without Kyle Scadlock, however, they have managed to show their depth and remain afloat thus far in NESCAC play. They went from NESCAC favorites to just another team in the running for the title, seeing their first loss at the hands of Tufts this past weekend. In Scadlock’s place, Bobby Casey ’19 and James Heskett ’19 continuebear the brunt of the scoring load as Casey scored 11 and Heskett 21 in the loss against the Jumbos. Heskett added 23 against Bates in the following game, settling in as a reliable power forward that Williams will need down the stretch.

3. #16 Middlebury (11-3, 3-1)

Last Week: 82-76 W vs. Bates; 78-63 W vs. Wesleyan

This Week: vs. Williams

Jack Daly ’18 continues to dish and drive to the rim as Middlebury’s balanced offense before was too much to overcome for both Bates and Tufts. While the Bates game ended up only being a six point win—closer than expected—Daly dropped 26 points, nine boards, and eight assists, a stat line we are becoming all too familiar with. Matt Folger is a lengthy player who can shoot from deep, accompanied by Joey Leighton and Hilal Dahleh on the perimeter. Nick Tarantino, Eric McCord on fire in the paint of late, and Adisa Majors all play down low and bring in the boards evenly, while G Jack Farrell ’21 is playing a lot like Jake Brown ’17 from a season ago, distributing and opening things up on the wings and for Daly. Middlebury will need to find some three point shooting from somewhere, however, if they want to continue winning.

Jack Daly ’18 had another game winner last night against Albertus Magnus, and is carrying the panthers despite struggling with his outside shot.

4. Tufts (12-4, 3-1)

Last Week: 69-63 W @ Williams, 78-63 L @ Middlebury

This Week: vs. Bates

Their win against Williams put them in a position to surpass Wesleyan in the rankings, beating what was previously the best team in the conference. Tufts’ size and athleticism are their greatest strengths, led by Vincent Pace ’18, Eric Savage ’18, and KJ Garrett ’19 who was all over the floor against Middlebury. Pace slipped a bit last weekend, shooting 5-21 against Williams and 1-9 against Middlebury. Lucky for him, Garrett emerged as a potential force going forward, scoring 20 and bringing down nine boards against the Panthers in just his fourth game of the season. After increasing his workload to 24 minutes last Saturday, he should play an even bigger role against Bates this coming weekend.

5. #19 Wesleyan (11-3, 2-2)

Last Week: 76-70 L @ Hamilton, 70-66 W @ Amherst

This Week: vs. Conn College

Austin Hutcherson ’21 (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics)

Wesleyan is in danger of falling in the rankings after an 1-1 weekend which dropped them farther down in the national rankings. While they lost to a team ranked above them now, they needed to beat Hamilton to cement themselves as a real championship contender. They should roll over Conn College this weekend, but after narrowly beating the falling Amherst Mammoths, they should be a bit worried going forward. Jordan Bonner ’19 still hasn’t quite found his shot, shooting 3-9 against Amherst, and despite first year Austin Hutcherson’s 19 points and solid shooting, Kevin O’Brien did not play and needs to make it back into the lineup quickly for the Cardinals to have a chance.

6. Amherst (9-5, 1-2)

Last Week: 72-57 W vs. Conn College, 70-66 L vs. Wesleyan

This Week: @ Williams, vs. Hamilton

A sub .500 conference record at this point with their only win against the lowly Camels is not a good start for a formerly great Amherst team. Johnny McCarthy ’18 and Michael Riopel ’18 are still leading the way in scoring, but they need more depth in order to compete against the likes of Middlebury, Williams, and Middlebury as Riopel is the only Mammoth with the ability to shoot the deep ball. While they rank second in the conference in rebounding per game, they are in the bottom half in scoring and need to improve going forward.

7. Trinity (11-4, 2-2)

Last Week: 73-68 W @ Bowdoin, 61-51 L @ Colby

This Week: Non-Conference

The bottom half of these rankings get pretty confusing as Trinity’s overall record helps them out here, however, a loss to Colby certainly dampens their overall legitimacy as any sort of contender. They had some terrible individual performances in the road game last weekend as Jeremy Arthur put up a complete dud, going 0-10 shooting, Eric Gendron 2-8 FG, and Kyle Padmore 0-3 FG. There isn’t a whole lot else to say, they need to make more baskets to win games and 31.3% overall in the contest isn’t going to cut it. They should press the reset button this weekend without a NESCAC game and look to bounce back the following weekend.

8. Bates (8-6, 1-1)

Last Week: 82-76 L @ Middlebury, 79-68 L @ Williams

This Week: @ Tufts

Bates put up two decent performances against the NESCAC’s best teams, narrowly losing to Midd and competing against the Ephs. James Mortimer ’18 and Jeff Spellman ’20 are a great 1-2 punch, combining for 41 points against the solid Panther defense. Max Hummel added 13 off the bench, and despite not doing well the next game against Williams with just three points in 15 minutes, has shown some promise. Spellman is the leader of this team and a work horse, putting up 24 the next day against the Ephs and playing over 30 minutes in four games straight. He has the ability to win this team enough games to make it to the playoffs, and in March, anything can happen.

9. Bowdoin (10-4, 1-2)

Last Week: 73-68 L vs. Trinity

This Week: vs. Colby

Losing to a reeling Trinity team certainly won’t aid the Polar Bears going forward. Jack Simonds ’19, as always, can put up huge scoring numbers, supported by David Reynolds’ shooting and Hugh O’Neil’s impressive defense in the paint (17 rebounds against the Bantams). The Polar Bears have good overall numbers as a team and were really hurt by poor three point shooting numbers against Tufts (sub 25%) and heavy turnovers against Trinity—15 compared to the Bantams’ six. Look for the weapon heavy Bowdoin team to start climbing the rankings soon.

10. Colby (10-5, 1-2)

Last Week: 61-51 W vs. Trinity

This Week @ Bowdoin

Colby got a huge win against Trinity to put themselves on the board and in the conversation of relevance for the NESCAC playoffs. While it was a low scoring affair, featuring some awful shooting from Trinity, some of that had to be attributed to the Mule defense, right? Double-doubles from both Dean Weiner ’19 and Sam Jefferson ’20 are a great sign going forward, giving the Mules reason to believe that they can compete with some of the stronger teams.

Sam Jefferson ’20 is putting up a very solid season for the gritty Mules.

11. Conn College (6-10, 0-4)

Last Week: 72-57 L @ Amherst, 102-77 L @ Hamilton

This Week: @ Wesleyan

Conn College is beginning to look like a guaranteed win for other NESCAC teams after several blowout games to begin their 2018 conference campaign. In their most recent game, allowing more than 100 points to Hamilton, they clearly had little defense and were nearly out of the game from the beginning. David Labossiere ’19 is doing all he can to prevent the Camels from remaining in the cellar, dropping 18 points and seven boards in that loss, although he is pretty helpless after four losses by over 20 points in NESCAC play.

Muddying the Water: Men’s Basketball Stock Report 1/16

Muddying the Water: Men’s Basketball Stock Report 1/16

This week we got everything we expect out of a weekend of NESCAC basketball: absolutely no clarity in the standings. We got no help this week trying to decide who is better than who, but this is what we love about our conference. Wesleyan looked like they were ready to make a jump to the top but has struggled recently, Middlebury is too hot and cold for us to get a read on, and we still don’t find ourselves completely sold on Hamilton. It’s still too early in the year for us to identify any major trends, and the standings don’t give us much to work with yet. I guess that leaves it up to the analysts to decide what’s really going on in the NESCAC this week:

Stock up

Middlebury F Eric McCord ‘19

Eric McCord ’19 (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)

In a league devoid of elite big men, McCord ’19 has been a consistent force down low for the Panthers. After starting off the season injured and struggling a bit as he worked his way back into shape, McCord had a breakout weekend, particularly against Tufts. On a team that has several perimeter scoring threats, McCord makes his living on the glass and in the paint. He had himself a huge game in a win over the Jumbos, netting 13 points and hauling in 15 rebounds. Tufts came into the game hot after taking down Williams on Friday night for their 9th straight victory, so this was a statement win by the Panthers. The big man duo of Nick Tarantino ’18 and Eric McCord ’19 certainly don’t get a ton of press on a team with Jack Daly ’18 and Matt Folger ’20, but they understand their role, and McCord especially has them emerging as one of the most efficient front courts in the NESCAC.

Wesleyan F Nathan Krill ‘18

We have talked a lot this year about Jordan Bonner ’19 and Kevin O’Brien ’19 making the difference for this Cardinal squad. It’s time to talk about Nathan Krill ’18, because he is showing that Wesleyan is more than just those two players. Krill isn’t a super star by any means, but he is producing exactly at the level that he needs to be as a role player for this team. Against Hamilton, Krill netted 9 points and grabbed 10 rebounds, then followed that up with a 14-point, 10-rebound double-double in a huge win over Little Three rival Amherst. Krill has historically been a very streaky player, capable of both monster games and derailing the whole team with poor shooting and attitude. This season has seen him stay within himself more, a good sign for the Cardinals. Wesleyan needs to step it up a bit following their big win over Middlebury, and perhaps this will be fueled by Krill expanding his role a bit, because he has shown us that he is capable of doing so.

Stock down

Wesleyan’s Ascension

A few week’s ago, I wrote about how Wesleyan had begun to prove themselves, and they looked like the class of the NESCAC. Well, here I am, doubting everything I once said. After the Cardinals defeated the mighty Ephs on the road, in overtime, when they still had Kyle Scadlock, they looked like they were ready to compete for a championship. They have still given us plenty of reasons to believe they’re legit (see Nathan Krill ’18), but it is hard to really decide where they fall amongst the NESCAC’s elite. They were able to beat Amherst and Middlebury, two very legit wins, but they also fell to Hamilton and Williams the second time in the game that counted. The Cardinals are definitely a team capable of beating anyone (as they showed against Middlebury), but they aren’t quite ready to say that they’re here to stay at the top of the league, especially with Hamilton ascending and Middlebury figuring themselves out a bit against Tufts.

Wesleyan has fced down NESCAC’s best, and come out with a 2-2 record. That’s good, but they’re still not a guaranteed #1.

Williams’ Big Man Battle

The Ephs had a tough weekend, falling at home to Tufts in a hard fought game before taking care of Bates the following day. The Jumbos are a very good team, and Williams isn’t in the “stock down” category for any reason other than the fact that their frontcourt situation is as confusing as the plot of Inception. Matt Karpowicz ’20 and Michael Kempton ’19 make up undoubtedly the largest big man duo in the league, with Karpowicz standing at 6’8”, 250lbs and Kempton at 6’10”, 235lbs. From an outsider’s perspective, it is a mystery why Karpowicz isn’t seeing more time. Take this past weekend for instance; Karpowicz had 9 points, 10 rebounds against Tufts and 10 points, 11 rebounds against Bates. Kempton had 4 points, 3 rebounds against Tufts and 2 points, 3 rebounds against Bates. Karpowicz shot 67%, Kempton shot 38%. These numbers were all while both Kempton and Karpowicz were playing nearly identical minutes. This weekend was a microcosm for the entire year, because Karpowicz is obviously the more athletic and talented player, yet Kempton starts and splits the minutes. Williams isn’t playing especially poorly at the moment, but it is confusing why they wouldn’t use Matt Karpowicz ’20 more to bring themselves to a higher level.

Matt Karpowicz ’20 is one of the most talented big men in the league.

Perfection on the Line: Men’s Basketball Game of the Week

#14 Wesleyan (10-2, 1-1) @ #18 Hamilton (12-o, 1-0), 7:00 PM, Clinton, NY

And as we dive into the second weekend of NESCAC play there is already a game that will test two teams’ long term capabilities. Hamilton and Wesleyan are due to square off in this marquee matchup on Friday January 12th in Clinton, NY. The home team, Hamilton, has dominated their non-conference schedule and carried that momentum into their first NESCAC game against Trinity, and Wesleyan conquered the mighty Middlebury Panthers and nearly toppled Williams in an OT loss last weekend. In what has been an obscure first conference weekend in terms of power rankings (although you can read all about how Cameron deciphered last weekend’s results in the 1/10 rankings here:) this game should help clear up what the tumultuous beginning has left unclear, and be our best evidence yet as to whether or not Hamilton is legit.

Wesleyan relies on a dominant defense and timely scoring from players like Kevin O’Brien ’19.

Overview:

Wesleyan sits at 14th and Hamilton at 18th in the national poll. One year removed from being a disappointing last seed in the NESCAC playoffs, the Continentals are living up to their incredible talent this season. With versatile scorers like Michael Grassey ’19 and Peter Hoffmann ’19 surrounding stud Kena Gilmour ’20, Hamilton has, on paper, the strongest starting five in the league. Wesleyan, who was more expected to succeed in 2018, is also deep with experienced talent and their position in 2017 as a NESCAC semifinalist and NCAA tournament team would’ve favored them in this game a month ago. However, following losses in two of the Cardinals’ last three games, the home Hamilton squad can hardly be considered an underdog. After returning all of their 2017 starters, the system is in place for Hamilton’s continued success and it shows in their balanced stat sheet and in their win over Trinity last weekend 78-55. And Trinity beat Amherst the previous day 69-63, proving that they weren’t going to just roll over. Wesleyan has weapons on all parts of the floor too, although Jordan Bonner ’19 has seemed to have lost a bit of accuracy shooting lately. Hamilton averages almost 95 points per game, but they should be limited by Wesleyan’s defense, ranking third in rebounds, turnovers, and points allowed per game (64.5) in the conference.

Wesleyan X-Factor: G Jordan Bonner ’19

Jodan Bonner ’19 (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics)

I’m not trying to pick on Bonner here, as we already did that a little bit in our most recent stock report, but in the last five games (Wesleyan is 3-2 in that span, including their only losses), his shooting totals have fallen off of the table. The stock report discusses his ridiculous 10-33 performance, looking like Kobe during his retirement tour, but that isn’t the only blemish. Cumulatively in the last five games, Bonner is 22-71 from the field (31%) and 10-40 from beyond the arc (25%). He started off the year hot and owns respectable numbers from the entire season (40% FG; 33.8% 3 PT), but the league is littered with players who started off hot and then fell off the face of the earth once league play began and defenses adjusted. Sure, Wesleyan has Kevin O’Brien ’19, Nathan Krill ’18, and Austin Hutcherson ’21 who are having solid seasons, but Bonner still leads the team in points at 16.9 PPG, and if he doesn’t improve his shooting given the pure volume of attempts he takes, Hamilton’s offense will be too much to overcome.

Hamilton X-Factor: G Kena Gilmour ‘20

Albeit not a particularly exciting pick, Gilmour completes the matchup to watch of this game. Likely to guard Bonner for at least part of the contest, the Continental scoring leader should have his hands full if he is to help limit the Wesleyan offense. With two blocks and eight rebounds against Trinity last weekend, Gilmour is nearly as much of a defensive force as an offensive one, leading his team with 18.5 PPG. In this breakout season, his shooting numbers have been excellent, at 37% 3 PT on the season and over 50% from the field, he is nearly a lock to score over 20 points, tipping the scales in favor of the home team. Gilmour is the catalyst of the offense that ranks ninth in the nation in points per game and will see his toughest test this weekend against a strong Wesleyan defense. This matchup should reveal just how legit Hamilton’s offense is, and if Gilmour rolls on, the team will too.

Final Thoughts:

Despite being one of only four undefeated teams remaining in all of Division 3 basketball, Hamilton still has not joined the teams that are considered the ‘real deal.’ The Continentals are top-10 in the nation in two statistical categories, including the aforementioned points, along with scoring margin (8th). And yet, they still have to prove themselves in league play. This is their chance, and boy do they have the tools. They play as a unit, and after developing together for a season, now that all of their starters are back for a second season, they should be able to maintain this success into at least a top-4 NESCAC finish. I’ve been on the Hamilton train since the beginning of the 2017 season–showing that I was a bit premature with my support–and am a believer that they are a force to be reckoned with. However, they will be heavily tested by the best teams in the conference.

While I have talked plenty about Hamilton’s hot start, I need not forget that Wesleyan knocked off former national #2 Middlebury, and came dang close to doing the same against Williams. Kevin O’Brien is the most dynamic player on the court for either side in this game, averaging over six assists and rebounds per game, while also shooting at a 61.7 clip. Despite only averaging 8.4 PPG, he is certainly capable of scoring more, showing in 16 and 18 point performances earlier this year against Mitchell and Nichols, respectively, settling into a more pass happy role ever since. If Bonner continues to struggle with accuracy, look for O’Brien to pick up the intensity and bear some of the scoring burden. The Cardinals have undoubtedly played a harder schedule thus far, but despite their opponents, their 78.9 PPG average doesn’t quite keep up with the 94.8 PPG of Hamilton. So, two questions remain: Will Wesleyan’s defense be able to stifle the Hamilton offense? Do Hamilton fans understand how hot their team has started off and how to give them an edge in their home gym (this is a challenge)? I say no, and yes.

Writer’s Pick: Hamilton 86-83

Hot Seat/Cool Throne: Women’s Basketball 1/12

Hot Seat:

1). Non-League Games: I remember every high school baseball season we would play a few 4:45 non-league games against a teams that weren’t in our league, so they basically had nothing to lose. To this day I question why we would play these games; the 4:45 start time was later than most of our games were, and we would start pitchers who could barely touch seventy-five in order to save our best for the league games. I know coaches schedule these games for more competition, but the talent gap is normally large in either direction. Amherst defeated Lehman College on Saturday by a score of 79-26. Why schedule this game? For Amherst, the only gain is giving bench players some time against some sub par competition (I apologize for possibly offending any Lehman College alumni). However, Amherst’s starters are so good that the best competition for the bench players stems from scrimmages against starters in practice. It just seems like a complete waste of time to play a game that yielded a fifty-three point differential. I know there’s a need for non-league games, but there has to be a smaller talent gap in these contests because it doesn’t seem like anything’s being accomplished with such blowouts. Amherst versus Lehman is only one of the many examples of non-league demolitions this season.

2). League Competition: The impending arrival of NESCAC games brought excitement to me, and the entire sports community. I expected close games with juggernauts such Tufts, Bowdoin, and Amherst. I was wrong. The first weekend provided less than stellar competition. There was only one game with a five point or fewer score differential. Williams versus Wesleyan finished 69-64 in the Ephs’ favor. I have two confessions here: first, I wrote in power rankings last week that Williams wasn’t playing very well. To my credit, they weren’t. Like I wrote, when the going gets tough, Williams always pulls through; it’s inevitable. Williams’ bench dominated Wesleyan’s—outscoring them 20-6. Championship teams have great benches, and Williams has proven that they’re here for the long haul. My second confession is I thought once NESCAC games began, we’d see more nail-biters. Unfortunately, we haven’t yet, but hopefully we will this weekend (Game of the Week will appear later in the article).

3). Road Teams: The road teams during the kickoff weekend for NESCAC women’s basketball posted a stellar 2-8 record. The average fan might wonder why this is the case. It’s not like teams are playing against the Seahawks’ 12th man, or facing the diehard, rabid Tampa Bay Rays fan base (please note my sarcasm). But as any high school or college athlete understands that playing on the road affects his or her routine. The bus ride has an effect; the visitors’ locker room feels different; the playing condition inevitably is alien. The two road victors were Connecticut College over Williams and Tufts over Colby. The Tufts’ win shouldn’t surprise anyone. The Jumbos shot 45% to Colby’s 28%. Jac Knapp, who shot 100% from the field, set the tone capitalizing off of Mule turnovers. The squad scored twenty-two points from Colby turnovers. Conn’s victory over Williams is more of a shocker. I think Conn could be poised to make a playoff run with a conference record of 1-1, and should be in the mix for the long haul because of its mental toughness from winning in enemy territory.

Conn College pulled out a very impressive road win last weekend, knocking off Trinity 74-63.

Cool Throne:

1). Must-Wins This Early in the Season (Game of the Week): Williams at Tufts should be an intriguing matchup this weekend. Williams really has nothing to lose in this one. They’re traveling to face a favored Tufts team. I don’t think many people expect Williams to win especially on the road. Tufts, on the other hand, symbolically can’t afford to lose this game. Coming off a beat down at the hands of the Bowdoin Polar Bears, the Jumbos come into this weekend with a 1-1 conference record. What has to concern Tufts head coach Carla Berube is the lack of points scored in the paint. Bowdoin outscored Tufts 32-16 in the paint, which shows that Tufts needs to get better at driving to the basket, and converting high percentage shots. A loss this weekend— causing the Jumbos to move to 1-2 in the conference— would lengthen the gap between the second and third seed in the conference. Tufts plays Middlebury the following day, so the ‘Bos have a lot to prove going into this weekend.

Coach Berube should be able to use her experience at UCONN under Geno himself to keep Tufts dominant. Click this image for a link to a great ESPN article on the connection.

2). Bowdoin’s Clutch Gene: Bowdoin dominated the entire second half against Tufts last weekend. The first half was close, but Bowdoin really pulled away in the second. I wrote last week that Bowdoin strives to break into the upper tier of the league with Tufts and Amherst. The second half of the game proved to me that Bowdoin has the clutch gene. I don’t know in years past if Bowdoin could’ve put Tufts away in the second half. Just mentally facing squads like Tufts and Amherst is daunting, but Bowdoin proved they can not only compete, but win at the highest level. They’re now the team that has the NBC Sunday Night Football time slot; they’re primetime. Bowdoin will visit Amherst on January 27th. Bowdoin’s insane eighty-six points per game is obviously an impressive stat (more points are generally better in basketball) but it also raises a red flag for me. Bowdoin is used to playing fast, so if Amherst slows the game down and controls the tempo, Bowdoin will have a lot of trouble adjusting. There’s a lot of time between now and the 27th, however, so we’ll see if Bowdoin and Amherst remain undefeated in the league.