Tag: R.J. Hall

Opening Weekend Preview: Who’s Coming to Play?

League play has arrived! After a long offseason and a few weeks of non-conference play, NESCAC foes will step on to the same diamond for the first time this season. The first weekend always carries a lot of question marks, because we don’t really know what to expect from every team. Some teams play tougher out of conference schedules than others, but for the first time this weekend we will begin to have a better idea of who is for real and who isn’t.

Williams @ Colby in Kissimmee, Florida

One of the early stories of the season has been the emergence of this Williams team, a team that came into the season with more questions than answers. The Ephs enter this series 9-1, already as many wins as they had last year. They have done it on the backs of their infield, namely sophomores Erik Mini (.390, 15 RBI) and Eric Pappas (.514, 8 RBI), and the white hot IF Doug Schaffer ’19, hitting .561 through 10 game and amassing a preposterous 27 RBI, 8 more than anyone else in the league. But the Ephs have also shown a flair for the dramatic, which could be covering up a few cracks. They’ve won 3 games in their final at-bats, most notably an upset win over then #9 Johns Hopkins and a 5-run bottom of the 8th to beat St. Olaf 10-8. The pitching is yet to come around (4.50 ERA) and it’s always hard to judge how other teams are treating non-conference games. We’ll learn a lot about them this weekend. The same goes for the Colby Mules, who are only 6-1, thanks to Mother Nature. The Mules have shown they can win in a variety of ways, putting up 10+ runs in half of the wins, and holding their opponents to 4 or less runs in 4 of their games. They’re hitting .410 as a team, paced by 3B Will Wessman ‘20’s .400/.448/.800 line to go along with 2 HRs and 11 RBI. But Colby has started 7 different pitchers in their 7 games, so we don’t have a lot to go off of in terms of knowing what they’ll bring to the bump. I’m going to give the edge to Williams in this one—momentum in baseball can be a scary thing and they’re as hot as anyone right now. While this is technically a non-conference series (@NESCAC, this is a problem), it still should reveal some aspects of each team that will reveal who each is.

Prediction: Williams 2-1

Hamilton @ Middlebury in Orlando, Florida

A series worth being exciting about between two teams who are getting right to the nitty and gritty to begin the year. Middlebury comes in at 8-4, but with a scoring margin of +42, while Hamilton has eked out a 7-6 start with a lot of close games. It’s hard not to give the edge to the Panthers in this series, with all that we know about both teams. Hamilton would be smart not to match their ace Gavin Schaefer-Hood ’21 (22.0 IP, 3-0, 2.05 ERA) with reigning league Pitcher of the Year Colby Morris ’19 of Middlebury (21.0 IP, 2-0, 3.00 ERA) if they want the best chance to steal this series. If they save him a day that will ideally put them in a position to split the first two and take their chances in a rubber match Game 3. Middlebury has to feel really good about the contributions they’re getting up and down the roster coming into this weekend, with 5 different guys already having cleared the fence, and 7 different guys having made starts for the Panthers, half of them coming from 4 different freshmen. Reigning Rookie of the Year IF Matt Zaffino ’21 has yet to really get going for the Conts (.270/.415/.324) but I think Schaefer-Hood will be good enough to get them a win if he doesn’t face Morris.

Prediction: Middlebury 2-1

Bates @ Tufts

Justin Foley is one of the most reliable starters for the Bobcats

A matchup between the 2018 playoff representatives of the NESCAC East kicks off divisional play in Somerville. Tufts (9-2) was expected to be able to offset the loss of their superstar senior class, namely Falkson, O’Hara, and Nachmanoff, on the backs of arguably the best rotation in the league in Brent Greeley ’20, R.J. Hall ‘19, and Spencer Langdon ’20, but the Jumbos have come out mashing once again to start the season, plating 124 runs in just 11 games. Langdon has moved to the bullpen, but Hall and Greeley look every bit the best 1-2 combination in the league, combing to allow 2 ER in 28 innings. Bates (5-6) has yet to hit their stride at the plate (.359 slugging as a team, 63 runs), but they have two proven quality starters in Nolan Collins (18.0 IP, 2-0, 2.00 ERA) and Justin Foley (20.1 IP, 1-1, 3.54). But they’re running into a buzz saw to start their conference play. Tufts is hitting the cover off of the ball and their first two starters are as good as anyone in the entire league. We don’t know who their third starter is yet, presumably sophomore Manny Ray (11.0 IP, 1-0, 3.27 ERA), but his classmate Jamie Weiss has also made two starts and freshman Aidan Tucker leads the Jumbos in appearances (5) and innings pitched (15). But whoever it is is going to be able to rely on a lot more run support than anyone Bates throws out there. Collins is 5th in the league with a 9.50 K/9 and he’s going to need to use the punchout to get through this lineup. If he can do that they might be able to steal one, but I would bet against it.

Prediction: Tufts 3-0

Trinity @ Bowdoin in Waterville, Maine

While it’s true you can never take too much away from non-conference play, anytime you go winless in your first 11 games, it’s a red flag. That’s exactly what Bowdoin has done, starting their season 0-10-1. Needless to say, it’s been poor play all around the diamond for the Polar Bears. The offense has logged 33 runs in 11 games, good for 3 a game. They’re hitting .208 as a team. Brandon Lopez ’19 and Colby Lewis ’20 have actually looked like the duo they’re expected to be, combining to throw 20.1 IP with a 2.66 ERA. But the rest of the rotation has been so dismal that their team ERA currently sits at 9.56. And just to make matters worse, their .942 fielding percentage is 8th in the league. The silver lining in all of this however, is that Bowdoin played a tough, tough schedule over their spring break, heading out to Los Angeles to play a number of strong west coast teams, a trip that Williams made last season with similar results. But playing Trinity probably isn’t going to be how they turn it around. The Bantams come in as hot as the Polar Bears are cold, winners of 6 in a row and 9-2 overall. Trinity is second in the league with 101 runs in 11 games, getting production across the board—namely in 4 players with double digit RBI. It has been the usual suspects like Stamatis and Koperniak, but also in breakout performers like freshman Mike Guanci Jr., hitting .295 and driving in 12 in to start his first college season, as well as junior Mack Lauder, hitting .324 and also driving in 12. The Bantams have manufactured runs with their typically terrific baserunning, stealing 45 bases (leading the league) and only getting caught 4 times. Admittedly the pitching has not been stellar, getting touched up to the tune of a 6.03 ERA. Star reliever Erik Mohl ’19 has yet to find his groove (17.0 IP, 5.29) and no pitcher has made more than 2 starts yet so we’re waiting for answers this weekend in terms of a set rotation. But if there was any team to play to get some confidence in a struggling rotation, it would be Bowdoin and their offense.

Prediction: Trinity 3-0

Amherst @ Wesleyan Friday 3/29, Wesleyan @ Amherst Saturday 3/30 (Doubleheader)

If Amherst can find a way to keep the games close, senior closer Mike Dow should be able to shut the door with some of his on-field antics

The series of the weekend is a Little 3 matchup in Middletown that will surely have playoff ramifications. Wesleyan (5-8) has not had a great non-conference performance, and that is because their much-maligned starting rotation has yet to solve the problems that plagued them last year. Mike McCaffrey ‘19’s junior woes have followed him into his senior season, lasting just 8.2 innings across 3 starts, with a 6.23 ERA. Sosa (15.0 IP, 6.00 ERA) and Clare (12.1 IP, 4.38 ERA) have not been much better either. The offense has been rolling, hitting .336 as a team (2nd) and scoring 99 runs (3rd), it’s just the 9th ranked 7.07 ERA that needs improvement. IF Andrew Kauf ’20 has placed himself firmly in the early Player of the Year conversation, pacing Wesleyan with a .474 average, 27 hits, and 19 RBI. They just need some pitching. Amherst (6-4) has had an unremarkable start in either direction. They’re 5th in the league in both batting average (.317) and runs scored (86). Their pitching has been quite good, though, second in the league with a 3.82 ERA and a league leading 10.43 K/9. CF Joseph Palmo ’21 (.432, 1 HR, 11 RBI) and freshman IF Daniel Qin (.387, 1 HR, 8 RBI) have been the guys doing at the dish so far for the Mammoths, which should be exciting for a team that is yet to get its top returners going. On the mound it’s been RHP Wilson Taylor ’19 (10.1 IP, 1-0, 1.74 ERA) who has shone the brightest out of a rotation that could really use some more help from the guys behind it. Amherst has the second worst fielding percentage in the league at .932, but their mistakes have been incredibly costly, as just 33 of the 60 runs they’ve allowed have been earned. The pitching has been good, and you could argue that they’ve just been a little unlucky to start the season. When you take into consideration that 2 of their 4 losses are against ranked opponents, then you realize they’ve been a pretty good team, as opposed to a Wesleyan team that is still trying to find itself defensively.

Prediction: Amherst 2-1

Things Change, but People Stay the Same: Power Rankings 4/13

Get on your horse, Brandon Lopez! (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)
Get on your horse, Brandon Lopez! (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)

After a little bit of a break from Power Rankings while we waited for things to sort themselves out so we’d look less stupid, the most powerful of NESCAC Power Rankings are back. We haven’t had a rankings since the NESCAC conference season began, so now is a good chance to reorder the teams as the next few weekends are the meat of the NESCAC schedule.

1. Wesleyan (15-4, 2-1), Last Rankings: #2

Kaitlin McCabe ranked Wesleyan second last time, and you might be questioning whether the Cardinals have done enough to make them worthy of moving up. Well, know that it’s close between the top teams. I put Wesleyan tops because I think they have the highest ceiling, even with everything they lost last year. They are 9-1 in their last 10 games, and after dropping their conference opener to Middlebury, they responded with two convincing wins in the doubleheader Saturday. Nick Miceli ’17 got his league-leading fifth win this weekend, and he has a miniscule 1.49 ERA to boot. For a guy that pitched just 13 innings last year, those are some real solid numbers. Wesleyan is not as good as a year ago, but they have done a sensational job to this point and seem to be getting better each week.

2. Amherst (14-4, 4-2), Last Rankings: #1

I drop Amherst a spot because of their inability to sweep Hamilton or Williams in their first two weekend series. They haven’t lost a combined two games to those two teams in a season since 2010. I now am not 100 percent confident that they make the playoffs because Wesleyan still looms on the schedule. If Amherst gets swept in that series, the potential is there for someone (dare we say Middlebury!) to steal that second spot. Offensively Amherst is their typical selves, being among the best in the league at both hitting for power and stealing bases. The defense has been really bad in their conference games though with a fielding percentage of .911. It hasn’t really cost them big yet, but it makes me nervous.

3. Tufts (12-4, 2-0), Last Rankings: #4

The Jumbos haven’t done that much to move a spot, but Bowdoin has fallen off in conference so Tufts is the clear choice here. I don’t want to disparage Tufts; they were on a eight-game winning streak after all until losing to Roger Williams last night. Their team batting average is a really bad .282, but that is all part of their team philosophy. Their OBP is a more robust .418, the third best number in the league. Andrew David ’16 has proven beyond a doubt that he is a top of the line ace, and Speros Varinos ’18 isn’t far behind. The jury is still out on R.J Hall ’19, owner of a 1.09 ERA, and Tim Superko ’17 had his best start of the season last week. The rotation is not as deep as it has been in years past, and that leaves them somewhat vulnerable.

4. Hamilton (11-7, 1-2), Last Rankings: 5

I know I mentioned Middlebury when talking about Amherst’s potential to miss the playoffs, but Hamilton to me is the third-best team in the West right now. The problem for them is that they already lost two of three to Amherst, and the final game of that series was a heartbreaking loss in extra innings. That lineup really is not a joke. Five of their every game starters have an OBP better than .400, and guys like Brett Mele ’17 and Kenny Collins ’17 are still getting on-base at a rate better than 50 percent. The Continentals can get back on track for making an upset run if they sweep the Panthers. Anything less than that and they will need a lot of things to go right for them to have a good chance.

5. Bates (9-12, 2-3), Last Rankings: #7

I put Bates here above Trinity because I have more respect for the Bobcats track record over the past few years. I also have to give credit for them sweeping the doubleheader against Bowdoin on Saturday after the Bobcats came completely unraveled in a 13-1 loss on Friday. Connor Speed ’18 took home NESCAC Pitcher of the Week honors because of his six shutout innings as Bowdoin could not figure out the funky motion of the right-hander. There is no doubt that Bates got lucky in the second game of the doubleheader when Bowdoin had five errors that led to all nine runs being unearned in the 9-5 game. Their series against Trinity next weekend looms large.

6. Trinity (9-11, 4-2), Last Rankings: #6

Trinity, long a NESCAC powerhouse, is back, baby! No, the Bantams, a team that used to strike fear into teams because of their slugging ability, is certainly not anywhere close to the team they were years ago. They have gotten back-to-back series wins over Bowdoin and Colby to put themselves in position to make the playoffs, but they have to prove they can beat Bates or Tufts before I have full faith in them. I loved how Trinity looked in the first game on Saturday as Anthony Egeln ’18 went all seven innings and a Scott Cullinane ’16 hit a three run homer in the first that gave them a commanding lead early. That lineup can still be shut down by really good pitching, though.

7. Middlebury (6-11, 3-3), Last Week: #8

When do we start to believe in the Panthers? Not quite yet, especially because they are in the West and not the East division. That win over Wesleyan which I sort of glossed over when talking about the Cardinals was an impressive one. Middlebury played Wesleyan close in some games last year so it isn’t a total surprise. Wesleyan didn’t play terribly; the Panthers simply came ready to play. They did get some lucky breaks, though. At one point an errant back pick attempt careened off the noggin of 2B Jake Turtel ’18 and went out of play, immediately allowing two runs to score, and Turtel later scored on a bloopy double. Friend of the program Colby Morris ’19 pitched great to get the win, and the offense put up two different crooked numbers against Ethan Rode ’17. The Panthers need to win just one more conference game to match their wins in ALL games a season ago.

8. Bowdoin (12-8, 2-4), Last Week: #3

No team has seen their fortunes fall more than Bowdoin’s in the past two weeks as the Polar Bears have not kept up their strong play. We warned about that possibility given how much youth they have. Ben Osterholtz ’19, who had been sensational in his first few starts, finally got roughed up against Bates. The real problem, though, is the lineup is hitting worse and worse. Nobody on the team ranks in the top-25 for either BA or OBP, and as a group they are hitting below the Mendoza line in conference games. That production is not going to be enough for Bowdoin to make a late push to make the playoffs.

9. Williams (6-13, 2-4), Last Ranking: #10

The Ephs kept their slim playoff hopes alive by taking the last game of their series against Amherst because of two runs in the 9th inning. The Amherst starting pitchers shut down Williams in every game, and when their offense struggles, things are extremely difficult for them. Their run differential is much better than that of a 6-13 team, but those types of things are only so helpful at this point in the year. One does have to keep in mind that this is a relatively young team with the every pitcher of importance slated to return next season. Things are frustrating right now for Ephs fans, considering the strength of so many other programs at Williams, but they should be better soon.

10. Colby (5-13, 1-2), Last Ranking: #9

It is impressive that every team in the NESCAC already has a win in conference even though many teams have only played one series. The Mules actually missed a golden opportunity to win the series against Trinity. Tom Forese ’16 outdueled Jed Robinson ’16 in the first game of the series, but ace Soren Hanson ’16 got knocked around in the first game of the doubleheader in what was their best chance to win. If Forese can pitch that well in other weekends then the Mules have the makings of a very dangerous team. I still don’t think they have enough talent on the roster to make any serious noise, but you certainly can’t sleep on them in any given game.