Author: Colby Morris

NCAA Sweet 16 Preview: #15 Amherst vs. #16 Babson

Johnny McCarthy '18 needs a big game in order to stop Babson's high-powered offense. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)
Johnny McCarthy ’18 needs a big game in order to stop Babson’s high-powered offense. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

This game is going to be a barn-burner. Amherst is ranked 15th and Babson is 16th. They already played each other early in the season on Dec. 10, and it was a wild double-OT, 103-96 finish in favor of the NESCAC squad. These teams have been deep in the NCAAs before, have seasoned coaches, big time players, and championship aspirations. Babson lost in the Final Four last year and the year before that, Amherst won it all. These teams are used to playing good teams in big time situations and that’s why its going to be one of the best games we have seen all season. The last time these two saw each other, Amherst’s Connor Green ’16 went off for 39 points, way above his 14.9 ppg average on the season, and Babson shot just 21-32 (65.6 percent) from the free throw line, not making their free baskets when it counted. The overtime periods were completely different contests as three Amherst starters, David George ’17, Jayde Dawson ’18, and Johnny McCarthy ’18, all fouled out while Isaiah Nelsen ’17 also reached five fouls for Babson. While it was undeniably a close game, many things could change for each team in this game, so who is going to do what it takes to come out on top?

Babson Overview

Amherst is a familiar opponent for the Babson Beavers. Babson has played four contests against the NESCAC which have accounted for four of their five total losses. It would be easy to say that the Beavers can’t handle this conference. After talking with Coach Stephen Brennan, 2016 NEWMAC Coach of the Year, I am not going to say that they are going to roll over so easily. First off, the fact that they played so many NESCAC teams shows that they have a tough schedule and play strong non-conference teams. Their overall strength of schedule this year at the time of the last public NCAA Regional Rankings was an impressive 0.539. Amherst’s wasn’t much higher – 0.558. Last year against NESCAC teams, Babson only lost to Bates, perhaps showing that this year’s record might have been a bit of an anomaly. In their game against Tufts, the opposition’s Ryan Spadaford ’16 made a 30-foot shot as time ran out to win the game, something that probably wouldn’t happen again if they played later this weekend. As far as personnel goes, Joey Flannery ’17, averaging 24.2 ppg and 6.9 rpg, and Nelsen, averaging 16.1 ppg and 8.6 rpg, are the clear leaders for the Beavers, both All-ECAC honorees. However, Flannery missed Babson’s Second Round game with a sprained ankle, and without him the Beavers are a much weaker team. The recent emergence of Nick Comenale ’18  has really helped Babson down the stretch. Comenale was averaging 3.4 ppg on January 24, the day he got his first start for Babson. Since then, he’s averaged 13.1 ppg and Amherst Coach Dave Hixon says “He really stretches other teams out.” Also, the potential of Bradley Jacks ’18 is something to watch out for as he averages 12.0 ppg but dropped 30 against Bowdoin earlier this year.

Amherst X-Factor: Guard/Forward Connor Green

Last time against Babson, Green scored 39 points in 41 minutes, accounting for basically 40 percent of Amherst’s points. While Amherst does have a balanced team with four players averaging over 10 points and nine players averaging over 10 minutes, clearly Green’s outburst helped them win. On top of that, as Amherst’s top scorer, he will be going back and forth scoring with Flannery who was injured last game, creating a potential deviation between their productivity. Green could easily give his team an edge.

Babson X-Factor: Free Throw Shooting

While Amherst’s Coach Dave Hixon doesn’t think that Babson’s poor free throw shooting was a huge reason for his team’s win in their previous meeting, Babson Coach Stephen Brennan thinks differently. In a call with him, he emphasized how important accuracy from the charity stripe was going to be for his Beavers and how if not for a low 65 percent from the line last time, his team could’ve very well have pulled out the win.

Three Questions

1. Does the presence of Comenale make a difference?

Yes. He didn’t play last time the two teams met, and at the time, wouldn’t have had a huge impact, but since then he has become a starter, reaching double digit points almost every game and grabbing over four rebounds a game since he began receiving significant minutes. Also, this will change around the lineup that Amherst saw last time, making their last meeting less of an indication of how this game could go.

2. Will Flannery be ready to go for Babson?

Joey Flannery '17 was a D3Hoops.com Preseason First Team All-American, and his 24.2 ppg this year ranks 11th in the nation. (Courtesy of Jon Endow/Babson Athletics)
Joey Flannery ’17 was a D3Hoops.com Preseason First Team All-American, and his 24.2 ppg this year ranks 11th in the nation. (Courtesy of Jon Endow/Babson Athletics)

He’s probably going to play, but we have no way of knowing exactly how ready and mobile he will be after a sprained ankle. I’m sure that he will play hard in this pivotal game for his Beavers, but without him, I am not sure how well they would compete against Amherst. Without his 24.2 ppg, Babson won’t have much room for error, as they barely won their last game 70-67 against #19 Susquehanna. So he better be ready to go.

3. Who is the predicted favorite?

Even though Amherst won the only meeting these two teams had earlier this season, as both coaches put it, each team is much different than they were when they last played. As previously mentioned, Comenale is a new starter, averaging big minutes, and each team has played a season’s worth of games, developing as a unit, especially with each team’s transfer students as “it takes a while for them to settle in,” according to Coach Hixon. This is going to be a close contest and since Amherst won before and is still higher ranked, it looks like they are the favorite on paper, but not by much.

What to Expect

The Babson Beavers look comically relaxed. (Courtesy of Jon Endow/Babson Athletics)
The Babson Beavers look comically relaxed. (Courtesy of Jon Endow/Babson Athletics)

Babson is not going to go away lightly. Learning from a double OT loss before, they know that this game is going to be a dog fight. Amherst likes to shoot a lot of threes and is certainly good at it, racking up 37.3 percent of the long shots this year. McCarthy and Michael Riopel ’18 are going to need to defend Nelsen, Flannery and the rest of Babson well as they average 81.6 ppg (the same ppg as Amherst). The site of this game will also be impactful as the last meeting was at Babson and this is at a neutral site. Ah, the beauty of the D-III tournament. Amherst deserved the regional more than anyone else left, but Tufts is more centralized for all four teams (the last being Johnson & Wales of Providence, RI) and the Amherst women are hosting on the No Mascots’ campus this weekend. Instead of a home crowd decked out in Purple and White, Amherst will probably be met by more Beaver fans. Even though Flannery was injured for Babson against Susquehanna, they were still able to win their 13th straight game against the #19 ranked school in the country. Amherst on the other hand lost a close game to Middlebury in the NESCAC championship while their team was pretty beat up. Each team at this point in the season is going to be a bit injured, but that shouldn’t give one team too much of an advantage over the other. Overall, Babson has more momentum, but Amherst won’t be lacking confidence after beating them earlier in the year. Bottom line is both teams deserve to be here. If Flannery was 100 percent healthy, I think Babson pulls this game out, but since he is hobbled with the ankle injury, Amherst looks primed to outlast the Beavers in a back-and-forth game.

Prediction: Amherst 90 Babson 86 in OT

NCAA First Round Preview: Trinity vs. #12 Johnson and Wales

Andrew Hurd '16 cruises for an easy two with his luscious hair. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)
Andrew Hurd ’16 cruises for an easy two with his luscious hair. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)

Predicting the match up between two teams that are such polar opposites and that haven’t played each other before sure leaves room for speculation. Trinity is set to square off against #12 Johnson and Wales (26-2, 17-1) tonight at SUNY Plattsburgh. The NCAA committee selected the Bantams as an at-large team into the tournament as they amassed a 19-7 (9-1) record, earning the #1 seed in the NESCAC tournament, before being upset by Middlebury 70-58 in last weekend’s semifinals. Johnson and Wales of Rhode Island ensured their own trip to the dance as they won the Great Northwestern Athletic Conference playoffs and regular season in convincing fashion, finishing 26-2. Johnson and Wales’ Quarry Greenaway ’16 was the GNAC Player of the Year, finishing fourth in the country with 26.1 ppg, while guards Tom Garrick ’16, Anthony Jernigan ’17, and Robert Lewis ’16 also received All-GNAC honors. While the GNAC is not a strong conference, only sending one team to the NCAA tournament, the extensive honors for the Wildcats speaks to their depth and are an explanation for how they are still carrying a 21-game winning streak into Friday’s game, begging the question: Do the Bantams stand a chance?

In Trinity’s last game against Middlebury, they only shot 32.8 percent compared to 43.9 percent on the season from the field. This discrepancy could be a result of a good Panthers defense, but Trinity’s leading scorer, Shay Ajayi ’16, also the NESCAC Player of the Year, had only 11 points. While the Bantams like to spread the playing time around with 11 players averaging over 10 minutes per game, Ajayi is going to have to put up some big numbers against the explosive Johnson and Wales team.

The JWU weak schedule still leaves room for questions despite their gaudy record. Though D3Hoops.com has them ranked 14th, the Wildcats were actually four spots below Trinity in the final public regional rankings that came out before the final weekend of conference tournament games, and judging by Trinity’s positioning on the bracket in the pseudo-No. 2 slot for their pod, the NCAA committee still feels like Trinity is the stronger team. JWU had an atrocious .473 SOS as of the final public regional rankings. For comparison, Trinity’s SOS was .565. However, the two teams did play three teams in common in Elms, Anna Maria and Eastern Connecticut State. They each blew out both Elms and Anna Maria but Trinity lost the Eastern Connecticut 57-49 while Johnson and Wales won 72-59. These games were both early in the season and the 23-point margin of victory against this mutual opponent gives the Wildcats some more credibility. On top of all of that, the Wildcats are averaging 90.6 ppg and shooting a scorching 49.6 percent from the field, both statistics which Trinity can’t ignore.

Trinity X-Factor: Controlling the Ball

It was tough to pick a player here as the Bantams are going to have to do a lot of things right to keep pace with the high-scoring Johnson and Wales team. Instead I chose possession of the ball because JWU ranks in the top-20 in the nation for both scoring offense, scoring defense, and steals. So the Wildcats score the ball, don’t let their opponents score, and take the ball away when their opponents could score. On top of that Johnson and Wales’ Anthony Jernigan leads the nation with 3.8 steals per game. In other words, the Wildcats like to keep the ball and are good at scoring when they have it. To keep pace with them, the Bantams are going to need to limit their turnovers and not rush to shoot. Trinity typically plays tight, low-scoring affairs, averaging a score of 77.5 to 67.3. PG Andrew Hurd ’16 is going to have a tough task of holding the ball and managing the offense as Trinity is going to need to control the ball to keep it out of the hands of the sharp shooting Wildcats.

Johnson and Wales X-Factor: G Quarry Greenaway

This is definitely the obvious choice as Greenaway is the clear leader of the Wildcat team, averaging 26.1 ppg and 9.3 rebounds, earning GNAC Player of the Year honors. However, I chose him not for his shooting ability – he is going to score and there is nothing Trinity can do to stop him. The big question for Johnson and Wales is how will their defense fare against a consistent and deep Trinity team who’s good at shooting the ball and diversifying the points scored throughout the team. Greenaway’s rebounding ability will be put to the test against NESCAC Defensive Player of the Year Ed Ogundeko ’17 who is a big 6’6’’ and takes down 10.6 boards per contest.

Three Questions

1. Will Trinity center and NESCAC Defensive Player of the Year Ed Ogundeko play more than his average 22.3 minutes per game?

This is one aspect of the Trinity game that Coach James Cosgrove must have had on his mind: How can they keep Ogundeko in the game to grab all the rebounds to take the ball out of Johnson and Wales’ hands? It’s simple: four media timeouts that are a minute long each, evenly dispersed in both halves, to go along with the four timeouts that each team begins play with. This should give the big man enough rest time to stay in the game for around 30 minutes, hopefully adding a few more rebounds and a few more shots to the Bantam’s effort.

2. Is Johnson and Wales really that good?

This team has won a lot of games. It is hard to get to 26 wins (as many games as Trinity played all year) without having some talent. Their conference is bad but it looks like they are made up of a few talented players who know how to score at a high percentage rate. At the same time it is Division-III basketball, and no team is unbeatable. The bottom line is, this team certainly earned their ranking and their selection to the tournament, but upsets happen.

3. Which is better — Trinity’s defense or Johnson and Wales’ offense?

This game is going to be a high-scoring affair. Trinity scores 77.5 points per game while Johnson and Wales scores 90.6. The only way that Trinity can stand a chance is if they find a way to limit the Wildcats’ shooting and control the paint on defense. Trinity’s defense has been good all year and they need to keep the Wildcat shooting percentage close to their opponents’ season average of 38.5 percent. They can’t let the higher seed get too many offensive rebounds, as with a nearly 50 percent shooting accuracy, if Johnson and Wales misses once, it isn’t likely to happen again on the same possession. 

Everything Else

Offense is certainly the strength of Johnson and Wales. Scoring over 90 points a game is impressive in college basketball, regardless of which level. That is a lot of points in only 40 minutes of play. Since Trinity is a defensive-minded team, they are going to need to find a way to limit the Wildcats’ top scorer Greenaway (26.2 ppg) and Tom Garrick, a 6’5’’ guard, who gets his with 22.4 ppg. Heart and hustle is the only way that the lower-ranked Bantams pull off this upset. Johnson and Wales is used to winning by over 26 points per game and isn’t accustomed to playing teams closely or teams that claw and fight until their last breath. Trinity has their intensity as a major advantage and probably the most important card up their sleeve in facing the foreign team from Rhode Island. Its going to take everything the Bantams have to avoid Johnson and Wales’ 22nd straight win.

Prediction: Johnson and Wales 84 over Trinity 73

Eye on Saturday

If Trinity manages to pull off the upset, then they will play the winner of #23 Plattsburgh State and Fitchburg State. Plattsburgh received an at-large bid while Fitchburg State had to win the MASCAC playoffs to get a bid to the tournament. It looks like Plattsburgh is a pretty clear favorite as they had a harder schedule, play in a better conference, and are ranked. At 18-9 Fitchburg likely wouldn’t have made the tournament without their conference championship win so I’m going to assume that the higher ranked team is going to take the win here. Regardless, I watched the 23rd ranked Cardinals get walked all over by Middlebury earlier this year, leading me to believe that they aren’t unbeatable by any means. The key in that game, though, was that one of Plattsburgh’s top players, guard Edward Correa ’16, didn’t play. Trinity played the Cardinals earlier this year and narrowly lost 81-73, but in that game Plattsburgh’s top scorer, Kyle Richardson ’16, didn’t play, and sixth man Jonathan Patron ’19 (14.2 ppg) was limited to 10 minutes. It will be a tall task for Trinity to get through this weekend to the Sweet 16.