Time to put our money where our mouth is and give y’all some actual predictions for the season. As Jonah Keri says, remember that all these predictions are based entirely on emotion and use no analysis or logic. If your team is ranked low then it means that I hate them for no good reason.
Predicted records are for NESCAC games only
West
East
Team
Record
Team
Record
Wesleyan
11-1
Tufts
8-4
Amherst
8-4
Colby
7-5
Williams
4-8
Bowdoin
6-6
Hamilton
4-8
Bates
5-7
Middlebury
3-9
Trinity
4-8
The first thing that jumps out is that Wesleyan is well above everybody else in my mind. The Cardinals went 10-2 a year ago and have virtually everybody back. They aren’t a team of future major leaguers so somebody in the West (probably Amherst) will beat them once this year, but besides that expect them to cruise. Amherst will take a small step back but still make the playoffs comfortably ahead of the morass at the bottom of the division. I think Williams will take a step back because their offense will not carry them like it did last year. Also, Hamilton and Middlebury should be better this year which will make those harder wins for the Ephs.
In the East I expect things to be a dogfight from top to bottom. Tufts would be more separated from everybody else if not for some questions surrounding their health right now (more on this tomorrow). I like Colby to barely grab that second spot because of the strength of their top three starters. Bowdoin and Bates are going to be right there at the end, too, I think. Finally, I expect Trinity to look much better than they did in 2014 but think they might end up not having the results in the standings. If we are being honest, the East is much more up in the air than the West, and every team has a chance to make the playoffs.
NESCAC Tournament Predictions
So Colby, Tufts, Wesleyan and Amherst will make the NESCAC tournament. Going into how every game will play out is like submitting your March Madness bracket in January. I would look silly doing it. What I will predict is that just like last year Tufts and Wesleyan will be the final two teams standing. Though the Jumbos deeper starting rotation gives them a potential edge, I think the Cardinals end up repeating as champions. So yes, I’m sorry if you are disappointed that I am not going out on a limb and calling any real upsets. It probably won’t surprise you to learn that I also picked Kentucky to win March Madness. What can I say, I like the favorites.
Season: 19-9 (5-5), Won NESCAC Championship, Lost in First Round of NCAA Tournament to Skidmore
Wesleyan brought back a young and talented squad in 2014-15, but expectations, at least outside of Middletown, were low for a program that has been under .500 for the past two seasons. The Cardinals, though, were not surprised by their level of success.
“At the beginning of the season we talked about building a championship culture – something rarely associated with Wesleyan. The success of the 2012 20-win team served as confidence to get the program to the next level.” – Joe Edmonds ’16
Coach Joe Reilly relied heavily on a six-man rotation of underclassmen that featured three players capable of handling the point in Jack Mackey ’16, BJ Davis ’16 and Harry Rafferty ’16, a sharpshooting forward in Edmonds, a hyper-efficent power forward in Rashid Epps ’16 and a big rebounding machine in Joseph Kuo ’17. The impact and leadership of Chris “Air Canada” Tugman ’15, Tim “Dog Show” Gallivan ’15 and Bryan Galvin ’15 cannot be understated. Tugman and Gallivan each had crucial rebounds in the Cardinals’ first round NESCAC upset. PJ Reed ’17 and Jordan Sears ’18 provided high energy minutes and brought defensive length to the court in limited time.
Overall, Wesleyan did nothing more than make good on the tacit promises that its players made to themselves at the beginning of the season. Edmonds and his teammates talked about creating a championship culture. That was solidified when the Cards hosted the trophy.
High Point: Five-game win streak on the way to winning a NESCAC title
The Cards were 3-5 in the NESCAC on the morning of Friday, Feb. 13 and a long shot to reach the NESCAC Tournament. Wesleyan manhandled Hamilton that night and swept the floor with Williams the next day to finish at 5-5 and solidify its spot as the sixth seed. Then the Cards went on the road to the toughest gym in the NESCAC and squeaked out a W against Bates. The next weekend Wesleyan was in a hostile environment once again, but topped the Bantams in Hartford in the NESCAC Semifinals. The Cardinals torrid run culminated with an overtime win – just the second overtime game in NESCAC title game history – over three-time defending champion Amherst. The NESCAC title was the program’s first, and the first for any sixth-seed in the tournament, and the NCAA berth was also a first for Wesleyan.
MVP: Center Joseph Kuo ’17
It’s damn near impossible to pick one player from the Wesleyan rotation to make Most Valuable Player, because the production was spread out so equally and the defense was a complete team effort. And, if you were to ask any of the Wesleyan players (oh yeah, we did), they would only reiterate that sentiment instead of singling out a single contributor. Nevertheless, if you’re going to pull my leg, I’ve got to hand the award to Kuo, who led the team in rebounding and scoring (though just barely). The Cardinals’ best depth came in the backcourt, with Mackey, Davis, Rafferty and Reed and Sears in reserve. Take one of them away and Wesleyan might not win the NESCAC, but the Cards would still be contenders. Take away Kuo, though, and Wesleyan probably doesn’t make the NESCAC.
Players to Watch in 2015-16: Guards PJ Reed ’17 and Jordan Sears ’18
Wesleyan will return its offensive punch next season, but this duo of athletic guards could be ready to make a major impact on the defensive end next season. Both players check in at 6’5″ and have the chance to be forces defensively.
“PJ Reed and Jordan Sears have the potential to be really big pieces for us next year,” Edmonds said. “Coach Reilly emphasizes defense and rebounding and both provide plenty of length and athleticism.”
That Wesleyan could add two more weapons to its arsenal is a scary thought for the rest of the NESCAC.
Though it doesn’t get the publicity that the D-I tournament does, the D-III hoops tourney is even more chaotic and wide-open than what is commonly called March Madness. The first two rounds of the tournament are played on back-to-back days. Keeping track of all the action is borderline impossible, but somehow the miracle workers at D3Hoops.com do it.
Luckily for us, we only worry about one conference, though with four NESCAC teams in the tournament it was still a little crazy. Wesleyan lost in the first round to Skidmore while Amherst fell in the second round to St. John Fisher. However, Bates and Trinity both won their Regionals and now will face against each other at Babson at 5:30 PM on Friday.
Stock Up
Shooting Guard Mike Boornazian ’16 (Bates)
Well let’s see, Boornazian averaged 20.0 PPG, helped Bates advance to the Sweet 16, and scored his 1,000 career point. Not a bad weekend. Friday night Boornazian played second banana as Graham Safford ’15 controlled the proceedings with 30 points and 10 assists. On Saturday against Stockton, Safford struggled a bit, and it was Boornazian who carried the load. He finished the game with 17 points, seven rebounds, three assists and two blocks. He scored 14 of his points in the first half before going cold for most of the second half. Boornazian did a good job of adjusting and handed out all three of his assists during the second half, including one very pretty layoff that led to an easy Adam Philpott ’15 layup. Combined with a big game from Malcolm Delpeche ’17 (17 points and 10 rebounds), Boornazian helped the Bobcats overcome a subpar game from Safford and advance. Guard play becomes magnified in the tournament, and Bates should feel confident knowing they have both Safford and Boornazian.
Trinity Defense
They call the NCAAs the Big Dance, and the Bantams made sure to dance with the one that got them there: their defensive effort. The Bantams had started clamping down already before their loss to Wesleyan in the NESCAC semifinals (the score was 55-52 after all), but something tells me that Coach Jim Cosgrove was able to really get the message through to his players because of that loss. Things looked bad for Trinity early as their first round opponent, Colby-Sawyer, came out firing and held a 24-8 lead with 10:27 left in the first half. Then Trinity regrouped during a 20-second timeout and allowed only SIX points for the rest of the half. After scoring 24 points in 9:33, it took Colby-Sawyer exactly 26 minutes to score their next 24 points. At that point the score was 53-48 in the Bantams’ favor, and the Bantams hung on for the victory. Then Trinity played even better defense on Saturday holding Salisbury to 47 points on 29.5 percent shooting.
Point Guard Andrew Hurd ’16 (Trinity)
Andrew Hurd is slight but he is very good defensively. Great timing and hands to get steals.
Though he comes off the bench, Hurd was crucial for Trinity this weekend. Hurd, a transfer from Central Connecticut State this fall, has become a more integral part of Trinity’s success as the season has gone along. When he is in the game, he takes over the primary ball-handling duties and allows Jaquann Starks ’16 to work off the ball. Unlike Starks, Hurd looks to pass when he gets into the lane, and his two assists in the final minutes were the difference for Trinity against Colby-Sawyer. Though he is only 5’10” and 160 lbs (he looks like he weighs even less if that is possible), Hurd is a very good defender. He seems to have an innate sense of knowing what the opposing ball-handler is going to do. He combines that with great lateral movement and quick hands to get a lot of steals. He had seven alone this weekend. Hurd adds another wrinkle to Trinity that makes them tougher on both ends of the floor.
NESCAC Overall
I think this weekend demonstrated just how good of a league the NESCAC is. Williams, Amherst and Middlebury are all known and respected nationwide as great programs because of their success, and some people wrote off the NESCAC as simply not being very good this year because those teams weren’t on top. So for the league to go 5-2 this weekend and send two teams to the Sweet 16 is very impressive. Bates and Trinity are certainly not associated with basketball, even though Trinity has won in the not so distant past. Over the past three seasons, seven different teams from the NESCAC have made it into the tournament. That number could very well jump up even further next season if Colby or Tufts delivers on the promise we saw this season. But first, we have one final NESCAC match-up to dissect and predict.
Stock Down
Momentum
Wesleyan was unquestionably the hottest team entering the tournament while Amherst was also playing well entering this weekend. However, it was Bates and Trinity, the two teams that struggled down the stretch, that ended up advancing. Now you might be saying, ‘What do you mean Trinity struggled down the stretch? They went 9-1 in the NESCAC and barely lost in the semifinals to Wesleyan?’ Well, Trinity had won five of their last six games by single digits (the other game was against Conn College) before losing to Wesleyan. Obviously the Bantams’ style means they play close games, but this was still a concerning trend. The time off seemed to help Bates a lot in terms of regaining their mojo while the loss for Trinity helped them to refocus. Obviously, Wesleyan winning the NESCAC tournament is the biggest accomplishment of any team this season unless the winner of Bates-Trinity ends up going to the Final Four. I just want to point out that counting out teams because they haven’t been playing well lately can make you look stupid. That is what Bates did to me as I picked against them twice.
Point Guards Jayde Dawson ’18 and Reid Berman ’17 (Amherst)
If you have read us all season, you know how much we have focused on the point guard situation for Amherst since the graduation of Aaron Toomey ’14. First, we do need to acknowledge that Berman played a fantastic game on Friday finishing with a career high 28 points. Unfortunately on Saturday neither point guard had a very good game which was just part of the reason why Amherst lost. The Jeffs ran into a St. John Fisher team that shot the ball lights out from deep (22-23 from the line too), and they couldn’t keep up because their offense was too disjointed. Dawson and Berman combined for 13 points, five assists, and six turnovers.
Bowdoin
Of course Bowdoin didn’t play this weekend, but it must have hurt the Polar Bears to watch Bates advance to the Sweet 16 and not just because Bates and Bowdoin are such bitter rivals. After all, it was only a few weeks ago that Bowdoin demolished Bates 98-70 in Brunswick in a game that showed just how good the Polar Bears were. However, they missed out on the tournament by a couple of spots and ended up at home this weekend. The Polar Bears still might have had to win the NESCAC tournament just to make it into the Dance though. Bowdoin will not enjoy watching Bates take on Trinity, a team they lost to by one point.
It was a shame to see the season end for the NESCAC Champ Wesleyan Cardinals and Amherst, but all NESCAC fans will have something to watch this Friday night when Trinity and Bates play for a shot at the Elite Eight and, potentially, a date with top-five Sectional host Babson. More on that to come, but right now here’s a couple quick hitters from a wild weekend of NCAA basketball for the NESCAC.
– Amherst’s Connor Green ’16 struggled offensively down the stretch, but he did manage to sink two trey balls in the Jeffs’ season-ending loss, giving him 78 on the season. That’s the highest total in the NESCAC this season, and one more than teammate Jeff Racy ’17 and Jack Mackey ’16 had on the year. The Jeff scoring leader also finished with 464 points on the season, third in the NESCAC and 73 behind scoring champ Lucas Hausman ’16.
– Mike Boornazian ’16 hit three free throws with 2:58 left in the second half last night to give him 17 points on the game and 1,000 in his career. With that make he joined teammate Graham Safford ’15, Williams’ Dan Wohl ’15 and Green as the players who shot their way into the 1,000 point club this season. On the list of departing seniors who got close are Dylan Sinnickson ’15 (884, and he didn’t play his sophomore season), John Swords ’15 (923), Hunter Merryman ’15 (948, just 51 in his freshman year), and, in gut-wrenching fashion, Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15, who scored 999 points in the midst of an injury-riddled career.
– Bates and Trinity are meeting in the Sweet 16 this Friday night. Two NESCAC teams haven’t met that deep into the NCAA Tournament since … oh yeah, last year’s Final Four, when Williams dominated Amherst in the semifinal, avenging three regular season losses to the Jeffs.
– More Bates news! The victory on Saturday was the Bobcats’ 21st of the year, a new program record. The previous high was 20, achieved in 2005-06 under current Wesleyan Head Coach Joe Reilly.
– Speaking of wins records and Wesleyan, the Cards finished the season at 19-9, one win shy of tying the program record set in 2011-12 when Wesleyan went 20-6.
– Friday was the first time that Amherst had played an NCAA First Round game since 2011. The Jeffs received a bye and hosted a Regional for three years from 2012-2014. The loss also stops a run of two straight Final Four appearances for Amherst. The Jeffs are now 37-17 all time in the NCAA Tournament.
– The Bantams hadn’t won an NCAA Tournament First Round game since 2004 when they beat Lasell but lost in the Second Round. The last Elite Eight trip for Trinity came in 1999, and the last Final Four in 1995. Trinity is now 10-8 all time in the NCAA Tournament.
Hope you enjoyed these fun facts. Let us know if we missed any historic events this weekend!
2014 Record: 31-13 (10-2 NESCAC, First in NESCAC West, First in Little Three)
Postseason Outcomes: NESCAC Champions, Second at Moosic, Pa. Regional
Returning Starters: 11 (9 Position Players, 2 Starting Pitchers)
Projected Starting Lineup:
DH Robby Harbison ’17
2B Andrew Yin ’15
CF Donnie Cimino ’15
1B Sam Goodwin-Boyd ’15
RF Jonathan Dennett ’15
SS Guy Davidson ’16
3B Ellis Schaefer ’17
LF Ben Hoynes ’15
C Nick Miceli ’17
LHP Nick Cooney ’15
RHP Gavin Pittore ’16
Offensive Overview:
After powering through the NESCAC last year and earning a school-record 31 wins, Wesleyan will return all nine players in their starting lineup this year. Expected to continue his dominance at the plate is Sam Goodwin-Boyd. Last season he tormented opposing pitchers while hitting .327 with five home runs and 44 RBIs. Goodwin-Boyd also runs well for a big guy (6’5″ 235 lbs). But the Cardinals’ offense does not stop there. Also returning to the lineup with high expectations are 2B Andrew Yin ’15, two-sport star Donnie Cimino, Jonathan Dennett and Robby Harbison, who all batted above .320 last season. Junior transfer Marco Baratta ’16 also hopes to make an impact on the lineup in 2015 by getting some at bats in the outfield.
Defensive Overview:
In the field Wesleyan returns all nine positions players and will be anchored by three All-NESCAC performers in Cimino (CF), Goodwin-Boyd (1B) and Guy Davidson (SS). Cimino, Goodwin-Boyd and Davidson all look to improve on last season’s success after playing summer ball in the prestigious Cape Cod League and Futures League. Pitcher/catcher Nick Miceli played some competitive summer ball as well, plying his trade in the New England College Baseball League, and hopes to build on a strong freshman campaign. Returning all nine field players will be key for the chemistry of a squad that has championship hopes again.
Pitching Overview:
On the mound Wesleyan will rely on returning starters Nick Cooney and Gavin Pittore ’16 to carry them through the campaign. Cooney was an All-NESCAC selection in 2014. Both Cooney and Pittore pitched in the Cape Cod League, bringing the total number of Wesleyan players in NCAA-sanctioned summer leagues to seven. The bullpen depth appears to be another strong point for he Cardinals in 2015 as well. Sam Elias ’15, another NECBL player, and Pete Rantz ’16 figure to make numerous relief appearances, though Rantz could compete for a starting job as he toed the rubber for seven starts last season. Elias and his devastating splitter accounted for a 9.27 K/9 ratio over 43.2 IP in which he earned four saves to lead the team. His 1.03 BB/9 rate was among the league’s best as well.
Story Lines to Watch
1. Can Wesleyan avoid the Championship hangover?
After last year’s historic season, the Cardinals will look to be even more dominant. The 2014 NESCAC title was the first in school history and the birth into the NCAA tournament the first since 1994. If Wesleyan hopes to continue this excellence they will need their established stars to step up again this year. After dropping the first game in the 2014 NESCAC championship 10-0 against Tufts, they showed incredible resilience to take the next two games. Coach Mark Woodworth has developed a formula for success that is not always pretty, but certainty is effective.
2. Can Wesleyan return to the World Series for the first time in over 20 years?
Last year’s NESCAC Championship certainty makes the Cards a contender to return to the playoffs again. With a cadre of returning starters the team appears to be in prime position to make a deeper run into the playoffs. If the Cards make the tournament again how far can they go? Can they reach the bar set by the 1994 Division-III runners-up? Can they win it all? Either way there is definitely something special brewing in Middletown.
3. How will Wesleyan’s 150th season celebration affect their performance?
This year will mark the 150th season of Wesleyan baseball. To celebrate the historic occasion the Cardinals will play Yale, their first ever opponent, in a regular season match up in April. They will also honor the tradition with a historic anniversary game on September 26, 2015. Will Wesleyan be able to create even more history with an incredible run into the NCAA tournament? Whatever the outcome, the 2015 season will prove to be a historic campaign.
4. How will Wesleyan stack up against top-flight competition?
In the D3baseball.com/National College Baseball Writers’ Association Preseason Poll the Tufts Jumbos were the only NESCAC team to make it into the rankings, but Wesleyan received a good chunk of votes. Now after two weeks of inactivity some of those Cardinals votes have shifted elsewhere, but still Wesleyan is right on the cusp of breaking into the top 25. The Cards’ spring break schedule includes games against No. 5 Cal Lutheran (8-1) and No. 14 Linfield (9-5) as well as two games in Pomona against Pomona-Pitzer (11-3) who is unranked but is receiving votes. If Wesleyan returns from its westward sojourn with a couple of victories against these teams then the NESCAC better get ready.
Biggest Series: Home-and-home against Amherst April 24 and 25.
Most NESCAC weekend series are played at a single site, but Amherst and Wesleyan have turned this into a home-and-home affair. Last year the Cards beat the Jeffs in Amherst and then split the pair in Middletown. Both teams expect to be competing for the NESCAC West title this season, so for Wesleyan it will be important to win the Friday bout in Connecticut before driving up to Amherst for the Saturday doubleheader.
The Cardinals come into this game playing their best basketball of the season, having won five straight and sweeping through NCAA Tournament teams Bates, Trinity and Amherst on the way to Wesleyan’s first-ever NESCAC title. Jack Mackey ’16 was awarded NESCAC Player of the Week honors for his clutch performance last weekend, and as a unit the entire Cardinals’ roster played great defensively, especially when it counted, in all three NESCAC tournament games.
The same can be said of the Skidmore Thoroughbreds who have gone 16-2 in 2015 and return to the NCAA Tournament under fifth-year coach Joe Burke after a two-year hiatus. Skidmore leaned on a tough early-season schedule to boost its SOS, but that didn’t matter as the Thoroughbreds had no trouble winning their third Liberty League title under Coach Burke and earning an automatic bid to the big dance. Of the Thoroughbreds’ seven losses, four came early in the season to some strong competition, including two NESCAC squads. Skidmore suffered a one-point loss to #4 Babson back in November, a three-point loss to Plattsburgh St. (19-8) and then a couple of close defeats to Williams and Middlebury. The only Liberty League opponent that bested the Thoroughbreds was Hobart, which defeated Skidmore twice. Hobart was a team that didn’t shoot the ball particularly well, but played very strong defense, essentially the opposite of what Wesleyan did for most of the season.
Of the four seniors on the Skidmore roster, only two played in the 2012 NCAA Tournament and will be active on Friday night. Eric Lowry ’15 is a transfer and Perun Kovacevic ’15 hasn’t played since January 24 for personal reasons. Both Nanribet Yiljep ’15 and Connor Merrill ’15 played important roles on Skidmore’s 2011-12 tournament team but for all intents and purposes both teams are getting their first taste of the NCAA stage. That doesn’t bother Yiljep.
“Like I tell my teammates, we’re breaking records this year,” Yiljep said. “It’s the first time we hosted the Liberty League tournament at home, it’s the first time we won it at home…and we’ve never gone past the first round. That’s another record to break. Let’s just break records.”
Since Kovacevic, who had started all 13 games up to January 24, exited the lineup, Martin Bedulskij ’18 and Royce Paris ’17 have seen their roles expand, with Bedulskij taking over in the starting lineup. Paris, though, has been the bigger surprise. Since January 31 he has scored double figures in eight of 10 games. Paris’ quickness and toughness to guard one-on-one may rival that of BJ Davis ’16, believed by some to be the toughest one-on-one guard in the NESCAC.
Wesleyan X-Factors: Harry Rafferty ’17
Rafferty will likely come off the bench against Skidmore because of the Thoroughbreds’ size, but his ability to create a scoring punch in relief will be critical for Wesleyan. These teams are similar in that they play very short rotations. I think that Skidmore has the weapons to guard most of the Cardinals, but Rafferty could get lost in the sauce. Erik Sanders ’16 and Connor Merrill ’15 matchup well with Joseph Kuo ’17 and Rashid Epps ’16, Aldin Medunjanin’16 will be all over Mackey, Paris can match Davis’ quickness and Bedulskij has the height to challenge shots from Joe Edmonds ’16. That doesn’t leave much in the way of someone who can stop the lefty sniper, who went cold during the NESCAC tournament but will look to breakout during the NCAAs.
Skidmore X-Factor: Aldin Medunjanin ’16
Medunjanin earned Co-Liberty League Player of the Year and in big games big players have to step up. The point guard is going to be a problem for the Cardinals, because he’s too strong and too tall for most point guards to cover, and the Wesleyan point guard triumvirate doesn’t boast exceptional height. Medunjanin plays a bit like an oversized Lucas Hausman ’16, constantly looking to drive and finish in traffic. But he also shoots the ball pretty well from deep (36.4 percent), and has better options in Sanders and Merrill to whom he can distribute the basketball.
Storylines to Watch
1. Effect of the weather
Weather isn’t usually a factor in basketball games, but when it forces the Skidmore team bus to sit idle in the middle of the Jersey Turnpike, weather becomes a big story. Skidmore’s bus ride to Johns Hopkins was delayed for hours on Thursday afternoon, making the chances of the team getting an opportunity to practice on the Goldfarb Gym floor on Thursday night highly unlikely. Wesleyan, meanwhile, arrived at Johns Hopkins around dinner time, leaving plenty of time to get a feel for the court.
2. Can Skidmore stop the three ball?
Skidmore’s calling card all year has been defense. The Thoroughbreds boast the fifth-best field goal percentage defense in Division-III, but that stat is bolstered by the fact that they shut down a lot of mediocre Liberty League teams. But make no mistake, Skidmore also held Middlebury to 57 points and Plattsburgh St. to 60, so that defense is no fluke. Coach Burke confirmed, however, that if Wesleyan gets hot from beyond the arch they are very difficult to beat, and with four of the NESCAC’s better three-ball shooters in Mackey, Davis, Rafferty and Edmonds, stopping that facet of Wesleyan’s game is a tall order.
3. Who can guard the athletic big man, Erik Sanders ’16?
Sanders is listed at 6’5″, 190 lbs., similar to Wesleyan’s Epps who is 6’4″, 210 lbs. However, Epps might have a tough time guarding Sanders, who handles the ball as well as a lot of guards. We understand it’s a highlight, and of course it’s going to make him look good, but go to the 1:30 mark of the below video interview with Skidmore Coach Joe Burke to get an idea of how versatile Sanders’ game is.
What to Expect
As always, Wesleyan’s success will be dictated by how well they shoot the basketball. Even on a poor shooting day Wesleyan can win, but it will be much tougher to do. Medunjanin really creates a matchup issue for Wesleyan, but on the flip side I doubt that Skidmore has played a team with as many shooting weapons as Wesleyan and they’ll have to adjust to that style. Expect some first time jitters from both sides, which is fair on a stage this big.
Also, let’s give a little love to the Cardinal big men, Kuo and Epps. Aside from producing a myriad of highlight reel dunks, Kuo has been very efficient offensively recently and Epps is a workhorse that grabs a lot of boards without great height. In the end, I have to tip the big man advantage Skidmore’s way. I mean, the Thoroughbreds have two All-Liberty League players in their front court. But the margin isn’t huge, which is why this game will be won by guard play.
Prediction:
I’ve watched a good amount of Wesleyan basketball this year, which means I know how good they can be. But I also recognize their flaws. So does that mean I end up overrating or underrating the Cardinals? I suppose only the outcome of tonight’s game will tell. I’m predicting that the magic continues for Wesleyan. I think they’ve shown that they can beat high quality teams time and time again, unlike Skidmore, who played a lot of very good teams tightly but couldn’t quite squeeze out the victory. In terms of X’s and O’s, for me the back court advantage for Wesleyan outweighs the front court advantage for Skidmore. Go Wes go!
The 2014-15 NESCAC men’s basketball season was marked by parity and unpredictability. But through it all, a few players played exceptionally well all season long. As Wesleyan showed in their title run, the five best individual players do not always make up the best team (not a dig at Wesleyan, who is filled with talented and hard-nosed basketball players), but I think any team in Division-III would be hard-pressed to compete with this NESCAC All-Star squad.
NbN Player of the Year: G Lucas Hausman ’16
NbN Defensive Player of the Year: C John Swords ’15
NbN Rookie of the Year: G Johnny McCarthy ’18
NbN Coach of the Year: Joe Reilly, Wesleyan
NbN First Team All-NESCAC
G Graham Safford ’15
Safford gets the nod over some other deserving point guards for his durability and leadership of a Bates team that will be playing in the NCAA Tournament. It’s the age old debate – should Most Valuable Player (or All-Conference) awards go to the best overall player or the best player on the best team? In this case, Safford does get a little benefit of the doubt for his team’s success, but no one else played close to the minutes that Safford played, and the senior leader kept up the intensity on both ends of the court all season long, leading the Bobcats to the second-most wins in school history (20 in 2005-06 under, you guessed it, Wesleyan head coach Joe Reilly) and the second NCAA Tournament in school history (Bates played in the 1961 NCAA Men’s College Division Tournament, now Division-II).
G Lucas Hausman ’16
Hausman went from solid upstart to our NESCAC Player of the Year in a short period of time. While winning three straight NESCAC Player of the Week awards, the first time that feat has been accomplished in NESCAC history, Hausman averaged 27.8 points per game while shooting 57.3 percent (63-110) from the field and maintaining near perfection from the charity stripe (83.3 percent, 30-36). Hausman has a unique ability to draw contact in the lane and finish shots off balance. Hausman finished the season as the scoring champion by a wide margin in conference games, and did it while shooting nearly 50 percent overall, helping carry a squad that suffered some critical injuries all the way to the Pool C bubble. Unfortunately, Bowdoin missed out on the NCAA Tournament. Fortunately, though, the NESCAC has one more year to enjoy watching Hausman play. Or unfortunately, if you’re an opposing coach.
F Dan Wohl ’15
Wohl was the POY favorite before Hausman caught fire, but nonetheless the senior put up a great campaign. Wohl was the fourth-leading scorer on the NCAA runner-up squad a year ago, but took on a lot more responsibility this season and responded incredibly well. As a case study of Wohl’s versatility – Wohl had a tough day from the field in the Ephs’ Quarterfinal loss to Bowdoin, yet the senior racked up 10 boards and seven assists against just a single turnover. Wohl also rebounded the ball extremely well and presented one of the toughest defensive challenges for opposing players in the league. His athleticism and length allowed Wohl to shutdown opposing team’s 2-4’s. For example, Wohl shut down Second-Teamer Dylan Sinnickson ’15 in Williams’ matchup with the Panthers to the tune of a 3-11 FG performance and 0-4 from deep. It may be even tougher for Williams to replace this year’s class of Wohl, Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15 and Ryan Kilcullen ’15 than last year’s, if that’s even imaginable.
F Connor Green ’16
Green came into the NESCAC’s final weekend as possibly hotter than Hausman, but hit a serious road block against Bowdoin and Wesleyan. Give those teams credit for forcing Green into tough shots and long threes, attempts that at other times Green seemed to hit as easily as lay ups. When you talk about guys that can score in different ways, Green is tops on the list. He handles the ball like a point guard, though he stands 6′ 4″, and his 200+ lbs. frame means that he can bully most defenders and is unaffected by contact inside. Not to mention his 48.2 three-point percentage in NESCAC games. Green is already comfortably a part of Amherst’s 1,000 point club, and if he stays healthy could find himself as the second-highest scorer in Amherst history by the time his career ends.
C John Swords ’15
Swords was the only member of the 2014 All-NESCAC First Team to return to the league this season, and his play warrants another nomination to the All-NESCAC team. We were concerned by the health of Swords’ knees when the season began, and even though he was less than 100 percent all season long, Swords played more than 30 minutes per game and discouraged teams from entering the paint all year. Swords grabbed 9.8 rebounds and tossed 2.1 blocks per game while putting up productive, if unspectacular numbers from the field. Swords scored “only” 12.9 points per game, but he did do it on 69.0 percent shooting, the fourth-highest mark in the NCAA as of March 1 among qualified players.
NbN Second Team All-NESCAC
G Joseph Lin ’15
If we were giving out the award, Lin would easily be the NESCAC’s Most Improved Player. Despite a late season injury that cut his campaign short, Lin was among the best distributors in the league on a team that we didn’t expect would have a ton of great shooters. Lin was in the top-ten nationally in assists per game, slightly ahead of Safford and Middlebury’s Jake Brown ’17, while also shooting for a better percentage from the field than either player.
G Luke Westman ’16
Two point guards make our All-NESCAC Second Team, but there should be no complaining as Westman was equally as impressive as Lin. Westman’s 73.2 percent from the field is basically unheard of from a guard, even though he just barely missed the cut to qualify for NCAA statistics (five made field goals per game). Westman is one of the most athletic guards in the NESCAC. He will return next year to lead inarguably the most talented class of rising seniors in the league.
F Dylan Sinnickson ’15
Sinnickson looked like a lock for All-NESCAC First Team consideration for much of the season, but his scoring took a major hit in conference games. Nonetheless his ability to grab rebounds (10.5 per game) was a difference-maker for a Middlebury team that lacked any consistency from its big men. Remember the name, because Sinnickson has one more year of NCAA eligibility, and there’s a better than 50-50 chance that the athletic swingman will be on the court for another NCAA college next season.
F Tom Palleschi ’17
Palleschi was a wild card coming into this season after missing all of 2013-14, but the reclassified sophomore didn’t miss a beat and improved on his statistics from his freshman year campaign, averaging 12.0 PPG and 6.1 RPG. Most impressively, once Hunter Sabety ’17 went down with a knee injury, Palleschi stepped up his game and became Tufts’ most important player, scoring double figures in seven of nine contests counting forward from the first game without Sabety. What’s more, Palleschi was a force defensively, rejecting 2.4 shots per game, 0.3 more than the seven-footer Swords. If anyone can challenge Green for most-diversified offensive game, it’s Palleschi, who can play with his back to the basket or face up from 15 feet away.
F Zuri Pavlin ’17
Amidst a disappointing season for the Camels, Pavlin shined once again, surpassing the Conn. College single-season rebounding record that he set last year as a freshman and leading the team in scoring with 13.7 points per game. Pavlin doesn’t have amazing height (6′ 5″) or strength, but he has an incredible knack for using his body to get rebounds. Watch out next year, as one more year under the belts of Pavlin and front court mate Isaiah Robinson ’18, a bruiser in his own right, could make for a fearsome front line.
An Interview with Cardinals Head Coach Joe Reilly and a Look at the First Game of the NCAA Tournament
“What makes Wesleyan great is exactly what makes our team great.”
Coach Joe Reilly – a New England native who has spent over 18 years coaching in the NESCAC, the first 11 as the head coach at Bates – upon hearing the headline from Tuesday morning’s what’s trendinginWesleyan University Alumni Association section of LinkedIn, also said, “we have guys who are computer science majors, we have guys who are pre-med, we have guys who are really into music. They respect other people on campus who are passionate about other things and they are a really great representation of Wesleyan.”
The headline was a nice change from the recent “trending” topics surrounding the school. It proudly read, “Renewed excellence in sports!”
But how did this Dark Horse break loose from the pack?
Of course this “renewed excellence in sports” comes in the wake of Wesleyan men’s basketball’s first ever NESCAC title. In taking home the title, Wesleyan became the first team in the 15-year history of the NESCAC tournament to come away with the championship after entering the final weekend as the lowest remaining seed. Not since 2002 had any team seeded as low as fourth taken home the hardware. Furthermore, the Cardinals earned the school’s first bid to the NCAA tournament for men’s basketball. But what’s been the key to Wesleyan’s surprising success this year?
Coach Reilly shared that “one of the biggest keys to our season was embracing the process,” and pointed out that “there were really only three games we lost that didn’t come down to just one or two possessions.”
Even with a season of ups and downs, Coach Reilly said that the process – that is, looking at the season from a big picture perspective – is what led them into the NESCAC tournament “really feeling like we belonged.”
Wesleyan entered the NESCAC tournament number 11 in the NCAA Regional rankings and a long shot to make the NCAA tournament, needing a surprise run to get into the field. Wesleyan will likely be underdogs once again in this Friday’s game against Skidmore, previously the number four team in the East and newly-crowned Liberty League champions, which might even inspire some Trinity fans to cheer on the Cardinals.
Coach Reilly is spending a lot of time this week watching footage of Skidmore in preparation for the game on Friday. Before he hits the reels, however, Coach Reilly said, “On paper Skidmore is a very good team – I know a lot of coaches in that league and it’s going to be a great match-up.”
The two teams’ records are not only nearly matched (Skidmore, 19-7; Wesleyan, 19-8), but both teams’ conference championship games came down to just four points (Skidmore, 68-64; Wesleyan, 74-70).
Although Skidmore’s mascot is the Thoroughbreds, it’s clear who’s really going to be, “coming atcha like a dark horse,” and here’s a hint: it’s not the left shark.
Coach Reilly explained that the players on his team are comfortable as underdogs, because they play that role even on their own campus.
“Football is the real driving force behind the athletic department – that’s just the landscape of college athletics.”
Much as the football team has recently achieved success and earned a shared-NESCAC championship in 2013, the Cardinals’ basketball squad has reached a new level under Coach Reilly, and with a victory over Skidmore would tie the program record of 20 wins in a season.
“A big part of why they’re here is that they’re the type of guys who like having a challenge,” Coach Reilly says as he grins – looking up and imagining the 2015NCAA Division-III Basketball Champions banner hanging in Silloway Gymnasium.
“They want to be the guys who put that first banner in the gym.”
— Wesleyan Basketball (@WesleyanHoops) March 1, 2015
Raise your hand if at the beginning of the season you had Wesleyan winning the NESCAC championship. Heck, raise your hand if you had them winning it going into this weekend. Sure, we picked Wesleyan to upset Trinity and make the finals before the weekend began, but we didn’t think they would be able to overcome the Jeffs on Sunday.
It was only 16 days ago that Wesleyan was 3-5 in the NESCAC. They had also just lost to Amherst by 17 points. BUT IT DIDN'T MATTER TODAY.
Throughout the season a lot of different teams could claim to look like the best team in the NESCAC. First it was Bates, then briefly Middlebury, then Trinity for a long time, and finally Wesleyan. Of course, the Cardinals were the ones who were the best at the end when it really mattered.
And that is an important thing to point out. The Cardinals were the best team this weekend. They won two very close competitive games against Amherst and Trinity, but they were winning for the majority of both games. The Jeffs and Bantams had to really fight just come back and make it a game in the final minutes. The Cardinals were the team that looked the most confident in the biggest moments. They were the only team this weekend that was capable of both making outside shots and getting interior points with Joseph Kuo ’17 and Rashid Epps ’16. Their defense was masterful for most of the game against Trinity. The Wesleyan team probably felt like they were on their homecourt because of the multitude of Wesleyan students who came out to support them.
The formula for the Cardinals has changed slightly in terms of ingredients from the beginning of the season, but the final result of solid defense and rebounding combined with balanced scoring has been the same all year. We say the formula has changed because some players like BJ Davis ’16, Joe Edmonds ’16 and Jack Mackey ’16 stepped up their play as the season went along. The wonderful thing about how Wesleyan plays is that they recognize very well which players are feeling it for a particular game. For example, Edmonds was the hero against Bates in the quarterfinal scoring 22 points. Then he struggled with foul trouble and didn’t make his first couple of shots against Trinity so Coach Joe Reilly played him only 16 minutes. Instead, Reilly was able to play Harry Rafferty ’17 and PJ Reed ’17 for more minutes, and the two sophomores did a great job of stepping up.
Though Wesleyan’s win is certainly surprising, we knew going into the weekend that anyone could win the championship. No team stood out as especially dominating, even though Trinity went 9-1 in conference play. As Howard Herman of the Berkshire Eagle pointed out, Wesleyan was the hottest team going into the weekend, something that mattered more this season than in years past. The Cardinals have been routinely discounted by us and others when talking about NESCAC contenders. The title of our season preview for Wesleyan was “Overlooked Cardinals Return Everyone.” After this weekend, it is hard to overlook Wesleyan anymore.
Stock Up
Wesleyan Fans
As mentioned above, the Wesleyan student fans were exceptional in turning out to help root on their team. Obviously it is a short drive from Middletown to Hartford, but it still takes a good level more commitment than simply walking out the door and into the gym. The semifinal atmosphere was awesome with Wesleyan and Trinity fans dueling it out in the stands while the two teams played it out on the floor as well. The Cardinal faithful were loud and boisterous, something that does not always happen at NESCAC games. In the finals, Wesleyan students far outnumbered Amherst students who could not be bothered to make the trip south from Massachusetts. Wesleyan has been in the news for the wrong reasons recently, and though it was obviously just a couple of basketball games, Wesleyan students were able to concentrate on something positive associated with their school. As somebody wrote on the Wesleyan Yik Yak, “After a tough week, thank you to Wesleyan basketball for giving us something to smile about.”
Point Guard Jayde Dawson ’18 and Forward Eric Conklin ’17 (Amherst)
A big reason for the buzz surrounding Amherst entering the season was Dawson and Conklin, two transfers from Division One schools. Both struggled to adjust to the NESCAC, and ended up being near the end of the rotation down the stretch. Then this weekend both were huge almost out of nowhere. For Dawson, the ability has always been there, but he struggled to fit into the Amherst system and took too many bad shots. Then, suddenly against Bowdoin he looked calmer and more in control. He was able to get to the basket consistently and scored 21 points, the only time this season he has scored more than 20. He was a little more erratic in the finals going 6-15 and turning the ball over four times, but he still scored 14 points and handed out five assists.
Conklin meanwhile found it hard to get playing time with David George ’17 firmly planted in the starting position. Then yesterday he just started hitting shots and didn’t stop. Nearly all of his points were simple shots from the block because Conklin did such a good job winning deep position. He finished the game with 19 points on 9-9 shooting. Both Conklin and Dawson were on the court during the final stretch, something they have not done all season. No other NESCAC team can claim two D1 transfers, much less two that usually don’t even play that often.
Parity
So all season we have been a little negative about how the NESCAC being so even this year could end up hurting the league for NCAA bids. Instead, that parity ended up helping the league as four teams got in. Amherst, Bates, Trinity and Wesleyan are all going dancing. Wesleyan would not have made the NCAA Tournament without their run to win the NESCAC tournament, and the other three teams got at-large bids. Bates and Amherst got their bids in large part because of some of their non-conference victories. For Bates their win over Babson was huge while Amherst boasted one of the best records against regionally ranked opponents. Trinity got their bid because of their 9-1 conference record. Four teams making the tournament from the NESCAC is rare. The last time it happened was in 2008 when Amherst, Bowdoin, Middlebury and Trinity made it. Usually the NESCAC will get two or three teams into the tournament. So why did the NESCAC end up doing better than it usually does in terms of bids? Well things broke almost perfectly for the NESCAC in a couple of ways. First, as said above, Wesleyan only made the tournament because they won the automatic bid. Then, around the country there were not too many upsets in conference tournaments which kept a lot more at-large bids open. Finally, teams that scheduled aggressively out of conference like Bates and Amherst get rewarded by the NCAA which uses Strength of Schedule extensively in their selections.
Stock Down
Forward Connor Green ’16 (Amherst)
We don’t know if something was wrong with the junior scorer this weekend physically, but he looked out of sorts in both games. His 3-14 outing against Bowdoin obviously didn’t matter because the Jeffs still won by 20, but Amherst really could have used some more offense from him yesterday. Instead, Green went 2-11 from the field and finished with eight points in 26 minutes, taking a lot of bad shots and deep, contested three pointers. Coach Dave Hixon benched him for much of the second half and overtime going instead with Jeff Racy ’17 for most of the game. Green is known as a streaky shooter, but his struggles this weekend went beyond just not being able to shoot well. He failed to adjust to his poor shooting and rarely looked to attack the basket finishing the weekend with only three foul shots. What makes this weekend all the more curious is that Green came in scorching hot and had an outside shot at resting away NESCAC Player of the Year honors from Lucas Hausman ’16. He needs to get back on track if Amherst wants to make a deep tournament run.
Trinity and Bowdoin Benches
Maybe the craziest stat from this weekend is that the non-starters for Trinity and Bowdoin, the two semifinal losers, had two points combined. Two points! The only scoring came on a jumper from Ed Ogundeko ’17 early in the first half of the Trinity-Wesleyan game. Now the lack of scoring from the Bowdoin bench is not shocking because the Polar Bears have leaned heavily on their starters all season. However, for Trinity getting only two points from their bench is almost unheard of. In their quarterfinal game, Trinity’s bench nearly outscored the starters 34-32. Guys like Ogundeko, Rick Naylor ’16 and Chris Turnbull ’17 usually offer a good amount of scoring punch for the Bantams. On Saturday for some reason all of them failed to get going and Coach Jim Cosgrove was forced to adjust. Andrew Hurd ’16 did play a lot down the stretch over Jaquann Starks ’16, but Hurd did not look to score much, though he did distribute the ball well. One of their calling cards all year has been their depth, so it was surprising to see Trinity’s bench fail to show up this weekend.
In case you hadn’t heard, March Madness has already begun. If you missed any of this past week’s NESCAC Tournament you missed some incredibly dramatic basketball games. You almost couldn’t script it any better. Wesleyan, a team that squeaked into the playoffs in the final weekend, sixth seed in a field of eight, had to travel to in-state rival Trinity and play on hostile territory. Not only did they defeat the host Bantams and cause a rare road team court storming, but they then shocked the NESCAC world for the second day in a row and knocked off the thrice-defending NESCAC Champion Amherst Lord Jeffs for the program’s first ever trip to the NCAA Tournament.
Amidst all of this, there were some impressive individual performances, and not just from the eventual champions. Two Bowdoin players made our squad, even though the Polar Bears got bounced emphatically in the Semifinals. There weren’t too many big men that put up great stat lines during the Tournament, contributing to the decision to put the Bowdoin big man on the team. As for Wesleyan, it really was a team effort from the Cardinals, but one player made it onto our All-Tournament team. Read on to see who joined him.
First Team All-Tournament
PG Jayde Dawson ’18
Now that’s the player that we thought Dawson was going to be when he transferred from Division-I Fairleigh-Dickinson. Dawson has often made these pages for his disappointing play this season, but there is nothing negative to say about the transfer guard today. Dawson played a limited role in the Jeffs’ Quarterfinal matchup with Tufts, but exploded in the Semis and Finals for 35 points, seven assists and five boards. He showed off his athleticism on defense by disrupting passing lines and getting out in transition. We’ll find out later today if Amherst will be in the NCAA Tournament field. If they are, expect Dawson to take on a larger role, even if he continues to come off of the bench.
Guard Jack Mackey ’16
Mackey’s numbers weren’t the prettiest over the course of the whole tournament, especially a 2-10 performance in the Semis, but Mackey was clutch for the Cards, and provided the highlight of the Tournament when he chucked a bounce pass through Malcolm Delpeche’s ’17 legs to Joseph Kuo ’17 for a monster slam dunk. Mackey also banged home a big-time three to open the scoring in overtime against Amherst. As we know, Mackey, BJ Davis ’16 and Harry Rafferty ’17 are all capable of handling the basketball, but from watching the Cards this weekend it just feels like Mackey is the emotional leader among the group, and he earns this nomination in part for that intangible factor.
Guard Lucas Hausman ’16
This was about as easy of a choice as exists in this business. On Twitter, we praised Johnny McCarthy ’18 for handling Hausman well at halftime in the teams’ Semifinal game. Hausman ended up with 21 points on 8-16 shooting, this after he torched Williams for 37 on 11-20 shooting in the Quarters. Hausman is really good. He won three-straight Player of the Week awards this season, the first time that has happened in NESCAC history. And he’s on the shortlist (a very, very short list), for NESCAC Player of the Year.
Forward Shay Ajayi ’16
Ajayi had an all-around solid tournament. He drew some favorable matchups and took advantage. Against Colby, a team known for its lack of height, Ajayi posted a double-double with 10 points and 11 boards. The junior then tallied another 10 points and added six boards against eventual champion Wesleyan. Trinity will likely be playing some more basketball in March, so look for Ajayi to build on his performance in the NESCAC Tournament.
Center John Swords ’15
As always, Swords’ impact doesn’t translate completely to the box score. When Swords is in the paint there are no easy shots for the opposition. That being said, Swords’ numbers were pretty good over the course of Bowdoin’s two games. Swords tallied 37 points on 17-25 shooting (10-10 in the Quarterfinals), 20 boards and six blocks. The only knock on Swords this weekend is that opposing big men, namely Ryan Kilcullen ’15 and David George ’17, actually had pretty solid offensive games. Nonetheless, Swords was the most valuable center in the NESCAC all season.
Honorable Mentions:
Guard Connor Green ’15, Forward Sam Willson ’16, Guard Hayden Rooke Ley’15, Center Joseph Kuo ’17 and Guard Hart Gliedman ’15
Think we missed somebody? Let us know. And good luck to all of the Pool C bubble teams today as the NCAA Tournament field is decided.