Tag: Harry Rafferty

New Number One: Power Rankings 1/21

Amherst prepares to break the huddle around Coach Dave Hixon. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)
Amherst prepares to break the huddle around Coach Dave Hixon. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

We do Power Rankings every week in order to look beyond the simple story of wins and losses and really try to get an idea for how each team stacks to each other. Not all wins and losses are created equally obviously. The rankings near the beginning of the season are mostly a result of the eye test since teams in the non-conference schedule do not play that many common opponents. By the end of the NESCAC regular season the Power Rankings will look quite similar to the NESCAC standings because of all that data we get from the NESCAC games.

Right now though might be when the Power Rankings are at their most valuable because there is enough common opponents to grade each team roughly while the eye test still carries weight. So read on, and get angry about how much lower your favorite team is than you think it deserves to be.

1. Tufts Jumbos (12-3, 3-1, Last Week: 2)

Tufts just lost to Middlebury Friday night, but the game was on the road and went into overtime. They shot 16-29 (55.2%) from the free throw line and committed 20 turnovers even though they are 2nd in the NESCAC in free throw percentage at 75.1% and are averaging 13.2 TOs per game. The loss ended an 8 game winning streak, but it is a good loss, and the Jumbos responded well by blowing out Hamilton the next day. They have blown out Colby, Bowdoin, and Hamilton. Those three teams have a combined winning percentage of 1-9 in league play, but nobody else is blowing teams out like the Jumbos are.

However, Coach Bob Sheldon could end up being the Achilles Heel for this team. On Friday down the stretch and in overtime, he insisted on subbing out Tom Palleschi ’17 on defense because he had four fouls and Sheldon did not want to lose him on offense. I’m sorry, but you have to play the LEADING shot blocker in the NESCAC (and the all-time Tufts leader in blocks) on defense in a close game even if he ends up fouling out. Palleschi sat from the 3:10 to the 0:38 mark in overtime because there was no stoppage in play for Sheldon to get his big man back in the game.

2. Amherst (13-2, 3-0, Last Week: #1)

Amherst drops down a spot after getting shellacked by Wesleyan Monday night 71-44 in the non-conference Little Three game. Having to come back at home in the 2nd half against Conn College on Saturday also isn’t a great look. This is a better version of the team from last year since everyone is back, but it is frustrating for Amherst fans that the same problems still dog them. The defense is lackluster even though they have superior athletes at almost every position, and the team relies on outside shooters, many of whom are streaky.

The one shooter who is not streaky is Jeff Racy ’17. In conference, he is shooting the ball 7.3 times per game while averaging 15.7 PPG. So he is averaging more than 2.0 points per shot. Put another way, Racy’s points per shot is better than a dunk! Using true shooting percentage, a slightly better statistic, Racy comes in at .768 this season. At Michigan, Duncan Robinson is leading the country in true shooting percentage (that a former NESCAC player is leading the country in that category is pretty incredible) with the number .733. Basically, Racy is incredibly efficient. He is also the leading scorer for Amherst.

3. Trinity Bantams (12-4, 3-0, Last Week: #4)

Every week Trinity is looking more and more dangerous, putting their uneasy early season further into the distance. They pulled away from both Conn College and Wesleyan in games that were closer than the final score indicated. The ability of Trinity to finish games is a skill that they have shown a lot over the past two seasons. The team defense isn’t as good as it has been in years past in part because of the loss of ace perimeter defender Hart Gliedman ’15. It is still a really physical group that is not giving up a lot of easy buckets.

The difference from last year is they don’t have to rely on Jaquann Starks ’16 nearly as much on offense. Ed Ogundeko ’17 has made a big jump in his junior season, and Shay Ajayi ’16 is playing better also meaning that the Bantams have a legitimate three headed attack on offense. I just wish that Coach Jim Cosgrove would play his core guys more. Nobody on the roster is averaging more than 25 minutes per game. Even in conference games, no Bantam is playing more than 30 minutes per game.

4. Williams Ephs (11-5, 2-2, Last Week: #6)

The win for Williams Sunday against Bowdoin to get back to 2-2 in conference was a big one. The Ephs didn’t play great and they still did enough to beat a quality team without too much drama. They are shooting the ball much better in conference: 40.0% 3FG in conference vs. 33.9% 3FG overall. I’m a little surprised that the Ephs rank second to last in assists per game even though their offense is built on moving the ball from side to side and frequent back cuts. The good news is they aren’t turning the ball over that frequently: just 12.0 TOs per game which is the third best mark in the league. Point guard Bobby Casey ’19 has become the third best player on the team behind Dan Aronowitz ’17 and Kyle Scadlock ’19. For what was supposed to be a rebuilding year, the Ephs are pretty darn good.

5. Middlebury Panthers (9-7, 3-1, Last Week: #10)

The biggest movers this week backed up the big overtime win over Tufts by controlling the entire way to beat Bates 73-61. The Panthers did it without center Matt Daley ’16 too. The downside is that Daley, unfortunately injury riddled his whole career, might be dealing with something that won’t go away. If that is the case, the Panthers will have to double down on playing aggressive perimeter defense and pushing the ball in transition at all times. Point guard Jake Brown ’17 is the x-factor for them: he was good last weekend. He even is shooting pretty well from three this season, even if his attempts are still really low. One concern is that he is too aggressive on defense. He leads the league in fouling out, especially bad as a perimeter player. He has to figure out how to hound his opponents without picking up ticky-tack fouls.

6. Wesleyan Cardinals (13-4, 1-3, Last Week: #3)

What a weird team. Just three days after getting run out of the building at Amherst and having nobody on the team make more than two shots from the field, Wesleyan turned around and put the beatdown on Amherst. Squeezed in between was the Cardinals battling Trinity for 32 minutes before scoring just 10 points in the final 8:46 and losing to the Bantams. That offense has been oddly ineffective. Stalwarts Joe Edmonds ’16 and Harry Rafferty ’17, the two leading scorers for Wesleyan in 2013-2014, have been relegated to minor roles. Edmonds has lost his starting spot at least temporarily to Kevin O’Brien ’19, and Rafferty has continued to not shoot the ball efficiently. Getting those two straightened out is necessary.

This group is going to continue to fight as Monday night showed. The tweet from point guard Jack Mackey came after the game on Monday and is in response to a Twitter account that was mercilessly mocking Wesleyan’s performance during the game Friday.

7. Conn College Camels (11-5, 2-2, Last Week: 5)

Alright, so the Camels aren’t going from winless to undefeated in NESCAC play. Yet, I feel better about them this week than I did last because of the way they played vs. Amherst and Trinity. For a young team, there is such a thing as a moral victory. Going into LeFrak Gym (Amherst’s home court) and nearly coming away with the win is going to help this group in the next few weeks. Point guard Tyler Rowe ’19 has been a handle for everybody who has to guard him. He hasn’t even been shooting the ball well from three recently (an atrocious 1-12 in conference). Rowe and other young guns like forward David LaBossiere ’19 and sharpshooter Lee Messier ’18 are making the Camels tons of fun to watch. A huge weekend with visits from Bates and Tufts awaits them.

8. Bates Bobcats (9-7, 2-2, Last Week: #7)

Another 1-1 week for Bates as they continue to tread water. The problem is that the two wins were against Colby (a healthy Colby team though) and Hamilton so a lot of hard games still remain on the schedule. Josh Britten ’16 has stepped up in a big way in his senior year. Last season he averaged just 5.5 MPG. Now he is starting, averaging 17.9 MPG, and is the top three point threat on the team making 2.2 threes per game at a 42.2% clip. Mike Boornazian ’16 has to play at a higher level than he has so far in conference for Bates to make a run.

9. Bowdoin Polar Bears (8-5, 1-2, Last Week: #8)

I’ll be writing a lot more about my dear Polar Bears soon, so I’ll keep it brief. The loss to Williams was tough because now Bowdoin has to follow it up with visits from Trinity and Amherst. Lose both those games and suddenly they are 1-4 even if none of the losses are bad ones. Against Williams, Bowdoin missed their final 13 three-pointers. The margin for error is small on this team, and the shots didn’t go in at exactly the wrong time for them.

10. Colby Mules (11-4, 0-3, Last Week: #9)

My goodness does that 10 game winning streak Colby had feel like forever ago. A team that was a potential dark horse this year is staring down the barrel of an 0-5 start with Amherst and Trinity this weekend. Both forward Pat Stewart ’16 and center Chris Hudnut ’16 were in street clothes for the game Friday against Williams. Stewart was back in limited action on Tuesday in a win over Maine Maritime, but Hudnut was conspicuously absence. Without Hudnut, the Mules simply don’t have the size to keep pace with teams. They will fight and claw like crazy with Ryan Jann ’16 leading the way, and they will scare teams a lot. Still, Hudnut is a NESCAC First Team type player, and nobody on the roster can replicate at all what he does.

11. Hamilton Continentals (8-8, 0-4, Last Week: 11)

I feel like I wrote the exact same thing last year, but Hamilton really is pretty good for a team that is winless in conference. Their problem is the lack of any player who is capable of creating his own shot on offense. That coupled with a suspect defense is holding them back for now, but if they keep laying this way then good days are coming. They are out-rebounding teams by 5.0 boards per game in NESCAC play (best margin of anyone), a surprising but encouraging stat considering that Hamilton has not shot a good percentage meaning their opponents should have lots of easy defensive rebounds against them. Instead, guys like Andrew Groll ’19 and Ajani Santos ’16 are getting after it on the offensive boards. Hamilton will get their first win soon.

To Kill A King: Wesleyan Season Wrap-up

The Wesleyan Cardinals are NESCAC champions. (Courtesy of NESCAC.com)
The Wesleyan Cardinals are NESCAC champions. (Courtesy of NESCAC.com)

Season: 19-9 (5-5), Won NESCAC Championship, Lost in First Round of NCAA Tournament to Skidmore

Wesleyan brought back a young and talented squad in 2014-15, but expectations, at least outside of Middletown, were low for a program that has been under .500 for the past two seasons. The Cardinals, though, were not surprised by their level of success.

“At the beginning of the season we talked about building a championship culture – something rarely associated with Wesleyan. The success of the 2012 20-win team served as confidence to get the program to the next level.” – Joe Edmonds ’16

Coach Joe Reilly relied heavily on a six-man rotation of underclassmen that featured three players capable of handling the point in Jack Mackey ’16, BJ Davis ’16 and Harry Rafferty ’16, a sharpshooting forward in Edmonds, a hyper-efficent power forward in Rashid Epps ’16 and a big rebounding machine in Joseph Kuo ’17. The impact and leadership of Chris “Air Canada” Tugman ’15, Tim “Dog Show” Gallivan ’15 and Bryan Galvin ’15 cannot be understated. Tugman and Gallivan each had crucial rebounds in the Cardinals’ first round NESCAC upset. PJ Reed ’17 and Jordan Sears ’18 provided high energy minutes and brought defensive length to the court in limited time.

Overall, Wesleyan did nothing more than make good on the tacit promises that its players made to themselves at the beginning of the season. Edmonds and his teammates talked about creating a championship culture. That was solidified when the Cards hosted the trophy.

High Point: Five-game win streak on the way to winning a NESCAC title

The Cards were 3-5 in the NESCAC on the morning of Friday, Feb. 13 and a long shot to reach the NESCAC Tournament. Wesleyan manhandled Hamilton that night and swept the floor with Williams the next day to finish at 5-5 and solidify its spot as the sixth seed. Then the Cards went on the road to the toughest gym in the NESCAC and squeaked out a W against Bates. The next weekend Wesleyan was in a hostile environment once again, but topped the Bantams in Hartford in the NESCAC Semifinals. The Cardinals torrid run culminated with an overtime win – just the second overtime game in NESCAC title game history – over three-time defending champion Amherst. The NESCAC title was the program’s first, and the first for any sixth-seed in the tournament, and the NCAA berth was also a first for Wesleyan.

MVP: Center Joseph Kuo ’17

Joseph Kuo '17 not only led the team in scoring and rebounding, but provided some highlight reel slam dunks and was a force inside defensively. (Courtesy of the Wesleyan Argus/Jonas Powell)
Joseph Kuo ’17 not only led the team in scoring and rebounding, but provided some highlight reel slam dunks and was a force inside defensively. (Courtesy of the Wesleyan Argus/Jonas Powell)

It’s damn near impossible to pick one player from the Wesleyan rotation to make Most Valuable Player, because the production was spread out so equally and the defense was a complete team effort. And, if you were to ask any of the Wesleyan players (oh yeah, we did), they would only reiterate that sentiment instead of singling out a single contributor. Nevertheless, if you’re going to pull my leg, I’ve got to hand the award to Kuo, who led the team in rebounding and scoring (though just barely). The Cardinals’ best depth came in the backcourt, with Mackey, Davis, Rafferty and Reed and Sears in reserve. Take one of them away and Wesleyan might not win the NESCAC, but the Cards would still be contenders. Take away Kuo, though, and Wesleyan probably doesn’t make the NESCAC.

Players to Watch in 2015-16: Guards PJ Reed ’17 and Jordan Sears ’18

PJ Reed '17 (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics)
PJ Reed ’17 (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics)
Jordan Sears '18 (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics)
Jordan Sears ’18 (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics)

Wesleyan will return its offensive punch next season, but this duo of athletic guards could be ready to make a major impact on the defensive end next season. Both players check in at 6’5″ and have the chance to be forces defensively.

“PJ Reed and Jordan Sears have the potential to be really big pieces for us next year,” Edmonds said. “Coach Reilly emphasizes defense and rebounding and both provide plenty of length and athleticism.”

That Wesleyan could add two more weapons to its arsenal is a scary thought for the rest of the NESCAC.

NCAA First Round Preview: Wesleyan University vs. Skidmore College

Game Information: Wesleyan (19-8) vs. Skidmore (19-7)

Friday, March 6, 5:30 PM

Goldfrab Gym at Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD

Live Stats  Video

In case you hadn’t heard, Wesleyan University is playing in its first ever NCAA Division-III Tournament, and they’re pretty excited about it.

The Cardinals come into this game playing their best basketball of the season, having won five straight and sweeping through NCAA Tournament teams Bates, Trinity and Amherst on the way to Wesleyan’s first-ever NESCAC title. Jack Mackey ’16 was awarded NESCAC Player of the Week honors for his clutch performance last weekend, and as a unit the entire Cardinals’ roster played great defensively, especially when it counted, in all three NESCAC tournament games.

The same can be said of the Skidmore Thoroughbreds who have gone 16-2 in 2015 and return to the NCAA Tournament under fifth-year coach Joe Burke after a two-year hiatus. Skidmore leaned on a tough early-season schedule to boost its SOS, but that didn’t matter as the Thoroughbreds had no trouble winning their third Liberty League title under Coach Burke and earning an automatic bid to the big dance. Of the Thoroughbreds’ seven losses, four came early in the season to some strong competition, including two NESCAC squads. Skidmore suffered a one-point loss to #4 Babson back in November, a three-point loss to Plattsburgh St. (19-8) and then a couple of close defeats to Williams and Middlebury. The only Liberty League opponent that bested the Thoroughbreds was Hobart, which defeated Skidmore twice. Hobart was a team that didn’t shoot the ball particularly well, but played very strong defense, essentially the opposite of what Wesleyan did for most of the season.

Of the four seniors on the Skidmore roster, only two played in the 2012 NCAA Tournament and will be active on Friday night. Eric Lowry ’15 is a transfer and Perun Kovacevic ’15 hasn’t played since January 24 for personal reasons. Both Nanribet Yiljep ’15 and Connor Merrill ’15 played important roles on Skidmore’s 2011-12 tournament team but for all intents and purposes both teams are getting their first taste of the NCAA stage. That doesn’t bother Yiljep.

“Like I tell my teammates, we’re breaking records this year,” Yiljep said. “It’s the first time we hosted the Liberty League tournament at home, it’s the first time we won it at home…and we’ve never gone past the first round. That’s another record to break. Let’s just break records.”

Since Kovacevic, who had started all 13 games up to January 24, exited the lineup, Martin Bedulskij ’18 and Royce Paris ’17 have seen their roles expand, with Bedulskij taking over in the starting lineup. Paris, though, has been the bigger surprise. Since January 31 he has scored double figures in eight of 10 games. Paris’ quickness and toughness to guard one-on-one may rival that of BJ Davis ’16, believed by some to be the toughest one-on-one guard in the NESCAC.

Wesleyan X-Factors: Harry Rafferty ’17

Rafferty will likely come off the bench against Skidmore because of the Thoroughbreds’ size, but his ability to create a scoring punch in relief will be critical for Wesleyan. These teams are similar in that they play very short rotations. I think that Skidmore has the weapons to guard most of the Cardinals, but Rafferty could get lost in the sauce. Erik Sanders ’16 and Connor Merrill ’15 matchup well with Joseph Kuo ’17 and Rashid Epps ’16, Aldin Medunjanin’16 will be all over Mackey, Paris can match Davis’ quickness and Bedulskij has the height to challenge shots from Joe Edmonds ’16. That doesn’t leave much in the way of someone who can stop the lefty sniper, who went cold during the NESCAC tournament but will look to breakout during the NCAAs.

Skidmore X-Factor: Aldin Medunjanin ’16

Medunjanin earned Co-Liberty League Player of the Year and in big games big players have to step up. The point guard is going to be a problem for the Cardinals, because he’s too strong and too tall for most point guards to cover, and the Wesleyan point guard triumvirate doesn’t boast exceptional height. Medunjanin plays a bit like an oversized Lucas Hausman ’16, constantly looking to drive and finish in traffic. But he also shoots the ball pretty well from deep (36.4 percent), and has better options in Sanders and Merrill to whom he can distribute the basketball.

Joe Reilly and the Cardinals celebrated their NESCAC title in classic fashion - but they're not done yet. (Courtesy of Wesleyan Connection)
Joe Reilly and the Cardinals celebrated their NESCAC title in classic fashion – but they’re not done yet. (Courtesy of Wesleyan Connection)

Storylines to Watch

1. Effect of the weather

Weather isn’t usually a factor in basketball games, but when it forces the Skidmore team bus to sit idle in the middle of the Jersey Turnpike, weather becomes a big story. Skidmore’s bus ride to Johns Hopkins was delayed for hours on Thursday afternoon, making the chances of the team getting an opportunity to practice on the Goldfarb Gym floor on Thursday night highly unlikely. Wesleyan, meanwhile, arrived at Johns Hopkins around dinner time, leaving plenty of time to get a feel for the court.

2. Can Skidmore stop the three ball?

Skidmore’s calling card all year has been defense. The Thoroughbreds boast the fifth-best field goal percentage defense in Division-III, but that stat is bolstered by the fact that they shut down a lot of mediocre Liberty League teams. But make no mistake, Skidmore also held Middlebury to 57 points and Plattsburgh St. to 60, so that defense is no fluke. Coach Burke confirmed, however, that if Wesleyan gets hot from beyond the arch they are very difficult to beat, and with four of the NESCAC’s better three-ball shooters in Mackey, Davis, Rafferty and Edmonds, stopping that facet of Wesleyan’s game is a tall order.

3. Who can guard the athletic big man, Erik Sanders ’16?

Sanders is listed at 6’5″, 190 lbs., similar to Wesleyan’s Epps who is 6’4″, 210 lbs. However, Epps might have a tough time guarding Sanders, who handles the ball as well as a lot of guards. We understand it’s a highlight, and of course it’s going to make him look good, but go to the 1:30 mark of the below video interview with Skidmore Coach Joe Burke to get an idea of how versatile Sanders’ game is.

What to Expect

As always, Wesleyan’s success will be dictated by how well they shoot the basketball. Even on a poor shooting day Wesleyan can win, but it will be much tougher to do. Medunjanin really creates a matchup issue for Wesleyan, but on the flip side I doubt that Skidmore has played a team with as many shooting weapons as Wesleyan and they’ll have to adjust to that style. Expect some first time jitters from both sides, which is fair on a stage this big.

Also, let’s give a little love to the Cardinal big men, Kuo and Epps. Aside from producing a myriad of highlight reel dunks, Kuo has been very efficient offensively recently and Epps is a workhorse that grabs a lot of boards without great height. In the end, I have to tip the big man advantage Skidmore’s way. I mean, the Thoroughbreds have two All-Liberty League players in their front court. But the margin isn’t huge, which is why this game will be won by guard play.

The Cards aren't the only team that enjoyed a nice court storming last weekend. Skidmore is also coming off of a conference championship. (Courtesy of Skidmore Athletics)
The Cards aren’t the only team that enjoyed a nice court storming last weekend. Skidmore is also coming off of a conference championship. (Courtesy of Skidmore Athletics)

Prediction:

I’ve watched a good amount of Wesleyan basketball this year, which means I know how good they can be. But I also recognize their flaws. So does that mean I end up overrating or underrating the Cardinals? I suppose only the outcome of tonight’s game will tell. I’m predicting that the magic continues for Wesleyan. I think they’ve shown that they can beat high quality teams time and time again, unlike Skidmore, who played a lot of very good teams tightly but couldn’t quite squeeze out the victory. In terms of X’s and O’s, for me the back court advantage for Wesleyan outweighs the front court advantage for Skidmore. Go Wes go!

Wesleyan 61 – Skidmore 53

The Slipper Fits the Cardinals: Stock Report 3/2

Raise your hand if at the beginning of the season you had Wesleyan winning the NESCAC championship. Heck, raise your hand if you had them winning it going into this weekend. Sure, we picked Wesleyan to upset Trinity and make the finals before the weekend began, but we didn’t think they would be able to overcome the Jeffs on Sunday.

Throughout the season a lot of different teams could claim to look like the best team in the NESCAC. First it was Bates, then briefly Middlebury, then Trinity for a long time, and finally Wesleyan. Of course, the Cardinals were the ones who were the best at the end when it really mattered.

And that is an important thing to point out. The Cardinals were the best team this weekend. They won two very close competitive games against Amherst and Trinity, but they were winning for the majority of both games. The Jeffs and Bantams had to really fight just come back and make it a game in the final minutes. The Cardinals were the team that looked the most confident in the biggest moments. They were the only team this weekend that was capable of both making outside shots and getting interior points with Joseph Kuo ’17 and Rashid Epps ’16. Their defense was masterful for most of the game against Trinity. The Wesleyan team probably felt like they were on their homecourt because of the multitude of Wesleyan students who came out to support them.

The formula for the Cardinals has changed slightly in terms of ingredients from the beginning of the season, but the final result of solid defense and rebounding combined with balanced scoring has been the same all year. We say the formula has changed because some players like BJ Davis ’16, Joe Edmonds ’16 and Jack Mackey ’16 stepped up their play as the season went along. The wonderful thing about how Wesleyan plays is that they recognize very well which players are feeling it for a particular game. For example, Edmonds was the hero against Bates in the quarterfinal scoring 22 points. Then he struggled with foul trouble and didn’t make his first couple of shots against Trinity so Coach Joe Reilly played him only 16 minutes. Instead, Reilly was able to play Harry Rafferty ’17 and PJ Reed ’17 for more minutes, and the two sophomores did a great job of stepping up.

Though Wesleyan’s win is certainly surprising, we knew going into the weekend that anyone could win the championship. No team stood out as especially dominating, even though Trinity went 9-1 in conference play. As Howard Herman of the Berkshire Eagle pointed out, Wesleyan was the hottest team going into the weekend, something that mattered more this season than in years past. The Cardinals have been routinely discounted by us and others when talking about NESCAC contenders. The title of our season preview for Wesleyan was “Overlooked Cardinals Return Everyone.” After this weekend, it is hard to overlook Wesleyan anymore.

Stock Up

Wesleyan Fans

As mentioned above, the Wesleyan student fans were exceptional in turning out to help root on their team. Obviously it is a short drive from Middletown to Hartford, but it still takes a good level more commitment than simply walking out the door and into the gym. The semifinal atmosphere was awesome with Wesleyan and Trinity fans dueling it out in the stands while the two teams played it out on the floor as well. The Cardinal faithful were loud and boisterous, something that does not always happen at NESCAC games. In the finals, Wesleyan students far outnumbered Amherst students who could not be bothered to make the trip south from Massachusetts. Wesleyan has been in the news for the wrong reasons recently, and though it was obviously just a couple of basketball games, Wesleyan students were able to concentrate on something positive associated with their school. As somebody wrote on the Wesleyan Yik Yak, “After a tough week, thank you to Wesleyan basketball for giving us something to smile about.”

Point Guard Jayde Dawson ’18 and Forward Eric Conklin ’17 (Amherst)

A big reason for the buzz surrounding Amherst entering the season was Dawson and Conklin, two transfers from Division One schools. Both struggled to adjust to the NESCAC, and ended up being near the end of the rotation down the stretch. Then this weekend both were huge almost out of nowhere. For Dawson, the ability has always been there, but he struggled to fit into the Amherst system and took too many bad shots. Then, suddenly against Bowdoin he looked calmer and more in control. He was able to get to the basket consistently and scored 21 points, the only time this season he has scored more than 20. He was a little more erratic in the finals going 6-15 and turning the ball over four times, but he still scored 14 points and handed out five assists.

Conklin meanwhile found it hard to get playing time with David George ’17 firmly planted in the starting position. Then yesterday he just started hitting shots and didn’t stop. Nearly all of his points were simple shots from the block because Conklin did such a good job winning deep position. He finished the game with 19 points on 9-9 shooting. Both Conklin and Dawson were on the court during the final stretch, something they have not done all season. No other NESCAC team can claim two D1 transfers, much less two that usually don’t even play that often.

Parity

So all season we have been a little negative about how the NESCAC being so even this year could end up hurting the league for NCAA bids. Instead, that parity ended up helping the league as four teams got in. Amherst, Bates, Trinity and Wesleyan are all going dancing. Wesleyan would not have made the NCAA Tournament without their run to win the NESCAC tournament, and the other three teams got at-large bids. Bates and Amherst got their bids in large part because of some of their non-conference victories. For Bates their win over Babson was huge while Amherst boasted one of the best records against regionally ranked opponents. Trinity got their bid because of their 9-1 conference record. Four teams making the tournament from the NESCAC is rare. The last time it happened was in 2008 when Amherst, Bowdoin, Middlebury and Trinity made it. Usually the NESCAC will get two or three teams into the tournament. So why did the NESCAC end up doing better than it usually does in terms of bids? Well things broke almost perfectly for the NESCAC in a couple of ways. First, as said above, Wesleyan only made the tournament because they won the automatic bid. Then, around the country there were not too many upsets in conference tournaments which kept a lot more at-large bids open. Finally, teams that scheduled aggressively out of conference like Bates and Amherst get rewarded by the NCAA which uses Strength of Schedule extensively in their selections.

Stock Down

Forward Connor Green ’16 (Amherst)

We don’t know if something was wrong with the junior scorer this weekend physically, but he looked out of sorts in both games. His 3-14 outing against Bowdoin obviously didn’t matter because the Jeffs still won by 20, but Amherst really could have used some more offense from him yesterday. Instead, Green went 2-11 from the field and finished with eight points in 26 minutes, taking a lot of bad shots and deep, contested three pointers. Coach Dave Hixon benched him for much of the second half and overtime going instead with Jeff Racy ’17 for most of the game. Green is known as a streaky shooter, but his struggles this weekend went beyond just not being able to shoot well. He failed to adjust to his poor shooting and rarely looked to attack the basket finishing the weekend with only three foul shots. What makes this weekend all the more curious is that Green came in scorching hot and had an outside shot at resting away NESCAC Player of the Year honors from Lucas Hausman ’16. He needs to get back on track if Amherst wants to make a deep tournament run.

Trinity and Bowdoin Benches

Maybe the craziest stat from this weekend is that the non-starters for Trinity and Bowdoin, the two semifinal losers, had two points combined. Two points! The only scoring came on a jumper from Ed Ogundeko ’17 early in the first half of the Trinity-Wesleyan game. Now the lack of scoring from the Bowdoin bench is not shocking because the Polar Bears have leaned heavily on their starters all season. However, for Trinity getting only two points from their bench is almost unheard of. In their quarterfinal game, Trinity’s bench nearly outscored the starters 34-32. Guys like Ogundeko, Rick Naylor ’16 and Chris Turnbull ’17 usually offer a good amount of scoring punch for the Bantams. On Saturday for some reason all of them failed to get going and Coach Jim Cosgrove was forced to adjust. Andrew Hurd ’16 did play a lot down the stretch over Jaquann Starks ’16, but Hurd did not look to score much, though he did distribute the ball well. One of their calling cards all year has been their depth, so it was surprising to see Trinity’s bench fail to show up this weekend.

NESCAC All-Tournament Team

In case you hadn’t heard, March Madness has already begun. If you missed any of this past week’s NESCAC Tournament you missed some incredibly dramatic basketball games. You almost couldn’t script it any better. Wesleyan, a team that squeaked into the playoffs in the final weekend, sixth seed in a field of eight, had to travel to in-state rival Trinity and play on hostile territory. Not only did they defeat the host Bantams and cause a rare road team court storming, but they then shocked the NESCAC world for the second day in a row and knocked off the thrice-defending NESCAC Champion Amherst Lord Jeffs for the program’s first ever trip to the NCAA Tournament.

Amidst all of this, there were some impressive individual performances, and not just from the eventual champions. Two Bowdoin players made our squad, even though the Polar Bears got bounced emphatically in the Semifinals. There weren’t too many big men that put up great stat lines during the Tournament, contributing to the decision to put the Bowdoin big man on the team. As for Wesleyan, it really was a team effort from the Cardinals, but one player made it onto our All-Tournament team. Read on to see who joined him.

First Team All-Tournament

Jayde Dawson-Gordon (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)
Jayde Dawson-Gordon (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

PG Jayde Dawson ’18

Now that’s the player that we thought Dawson was going to be when he transferred from Division-I Fairleigh-Dickinson. Dawson has often made these pages for his disappointing play this season, but there is nothing negative to say about the transfer guard today. Dawson played a limited role in the Jeffs’ Quarterfinal matchup with Tufts, but exploded in the Semis and Finals for 35 points, seven assists and five boards. He showed off his athleticism on defense by disrupting passing lines and getting out in transition. We’ll find out later today if Amherst will be in the NCAA Tournament field. If they are, expect Dawson to take on a larger role, even if he continues to come off of the bench.

Jack Mackey '16 (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics)
Jack Mackey ’16 (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics)

Guard Jack Mackey ’16

Mackey’s numbers weren’t the prettiest over the course of the whole tournament, especially a 2-10 performance in the Semis, but Mackey was clutch for the Cards, and provided the highlight of the Tournament when he chucked a bounce pass through Malcolm Delpeche’s ’17 legs to Joseph Kuo ’17 for a monster slam dunk. Mackey also banged home a big-time three to open the scoring in overtime against Amherst. As we know, Mackey, BJ Davis ’16 and Harry Rafferty ’17 are all capable of handling the basketball, but from watching the Cards this weekend it just feels like Mackey is the emotional leader among the group, and he earns this nomination in part for that intangible factor.

Lucas Hausman '16 (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)
Lucas Hausman ’16 (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)

Guard Lucas Hausman ’16

This was about as easy of a choice as exists in this business. On Twitter, we praised Johnny McCarthy ’18 for handling Hausman well at halftime in the teams’ Semifinal game. Hausman ended up with 21 points on 8-16 shooting, this after he torched Williams for 37 on 11-20 shooting in the Quarters. Hausman is really good. He won three-straight Player of the Week awards this season, the first time that has happened in NESCAC history. And he’s on the shortlist (a very, very short list), for NESCAC Player of the Year.

 

Shay Ajayi '16 (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)
Shay Ajayi ’16 (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)

Forward Shay Ajayi ’16

Ajayi had an all-around solid tournament. He drew some favorable matchups and took advantage. Against Colby, a team known for its lack of height, Ajayi posted a double-double with 10 points and 11 boards. The junior then tallied another 10 points and added six boards against eventual champion Wesleyan. Trinity will likely be playing some more basketball in March, so look for Ajayi to build on his performance in the NESCAC Tournament.

 

John Swords '15 (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)
John Swords ’15 (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)

Center John Swords ’15

As always, Swords’ impact doesn’t translate completely to the box score. When Swords is in the paint there are no easy shots for the opposition. That being said, Swords’ numbers were pretty good over the course of Bowdoin’s two games. Swords tallied 37 points on 17-25 shooting (10-10 in the Quarterfinals), 20 boards and six blocks. The only knock on Swords this weekend is that opposing big men, namely Ryan Kilcullen ’15 and David George ’17, actually had pretty solid offensive games. Nonetheless, Swords was the most valuable center in the NESCAC all season.

Honorable Mentions: 

Guard Connor Green ’15, Forward Sam Willson ’16, Guard Hayden Rooke Ley’15, Center Joseph Kuo ’17 and Guard Hart Gliedman ’15

Think we missed somebody? Let us know. And good luck to all of the Pool C bubble teams today as the NCAA Tournament field is decided.

#1 Trinity vs. #6 Wesleyan – NESCAC Semifinal Preview

The Wesleyan defense stepped up big in the Cards Quarterfinal win against Bates. (Courtesy of Phyllis Graber Jensen/Bates College)
The Wesleyan defense stepped up big in the Cards Quarterfinal win against Bates. (Courtesy of Phyllis Graber Jensen/Bates College)

This Connecticut rivalry, dubbed by some “The Battle of 91”, referring to the main highway that connects Middletown to Hartford, pits two teams that seemingly have overachieved and that have vastly different strengths against one another for the 190th time in history. Firstly, the Bantams host their first NESCAC Finals weekend since 2002, and will be looking to lean on their deep front court and hometown hero Jaquann Starks ’16 to bring just the second NESCAC Championship of the modern era (i.e. dating back to the inauguration of the NESCAC Tournament in 2000-2001) to Hartford. On the flip side, Wesleyan’s three-headed backcourt monster will look to outshoot the Bantams and move on to its first Finals in school history.

Anyone who knows anything about NESCAC basketball knows that defense is the calling card of the Trinity Bantams. This season to date, Trinity ranks first in the NESCAC in points per game allowed, first in offensive rebounds allowed, second in rebounding margin and second in field goal percentage defense. Ed Ogundeko ’17 in particular has developed into a beast on the defensive end, averaging 8.3 rebounds per game (sixth in the NESCAC) and 1.4 blocks per game (tied-fifth in the NESCAC), despite playing just 19.8 minutes per game due to the depth of big men that Trinity possesses. Tri-captain George Papadeas ’15 is one of the biggest bodies in the NESCAC and a strong defender himself, but Ogundeko has been so good this season that Papadeas has seen his minutes diminish as Ogundeko’s have grown. The other two members of the Bantams’ frontcourt, Shay Ajayi ’16 and Alex Conaway ’15, are no slouches, either. Ajayi turned in a double-double with 12 and 11 in the squad’s Quarterfinal win against Colby, and Conaway has been a consistent player all season long. The suffocating defense doesn’t stop once you get outside the paint, though. Tri-captain Hart Gliedman ’15, who dealt with a minor foot injury earlier this year but is now at 100 percent, might be the toughest perimeter defender in the NESCAC, bringing the quickness to guard point men and the size/strength combo needed to guard twos and smaller threes, as well as a wealth of experience. Gliedman spent a year at Div-I Liberty University in Virginia before transferring to Trinity, where he has made his mark as a leader on and off the court.

Captain Hart Gliedman '15 has a reputation for taking away an opponent's best scorer. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)
Captain Hart Gliedman ’15 has a reputation for taking away an opponent’s best scorer. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)

As for the Cardinals, all year long they have lived and died by the three-pointer, taking 21.7 treys per game, a number surpassed in the NESCAC this season only by Williams and Amherst. In their eight losses Wesleyan has shot an abysmal 29.2 percent (57-195) from deep, though they’ve managed a 38.1 percent mark on the season. The point guard trio of BJ Davis ’16, Jack Mackey ’16 and Harry Rafferty ’17 run the show for Wesleyan, but forward Joe Edmonds ’17 is the team’s best three-point shooter, and the sophomore blew up for 22 points in the Cards Quarterfinal win over Bates, the second time in three games that Edmonds had eclipsed 20 points, something that he hadn’t done before this season. The biggest concern for Wesleyan is its depth. Beyond the top six in the rotation, Tim Gallivan ’15 averages 10.9 minutes per game and Chris Tugman ’15 averages 10.4 minutes per game. Beyond that, no one hits double digits in that regard, and in Wesleyan’s Quarterfinal game Joseph Kuo ’17 was the starter with the least amount of minutes played with 29. What’s the point here? That Head Coach Joe Reilly apparently doesn’t have much trust in his bench beyond Rashid Epps ’16, who has started 18 games this year but has recently come off of the bench, often in favor of Edmonds. Rafferty praised some of the role players after Wesleyan’s win over Bates. “Jordan Sears [’18] was unbelievable in the minutes he gave us, just wearing out [Bates point guard] Graham [Safford ’15]….I thought one of the other biggest difference makers was Chris Tugman. It was just such a dogfight on the boards, such a physical game, and when he came in as a big body with some huge rebounds, it was perfect energy off the bench. He completely changed the flow of the game.” Certainly, players like Sears and Tugman will have to make an impact yet again if Wesleyan is to knock off the top seed and clinch a NESCAC Championship, because it is probably too much to ask for all five starters to go beyond 30 minutes on back-to-back days.

Last time they played:

It was not long ago that these teams went head-to-head on Wesleyan’s home court in a game that the Bantams edged out 65-61 on Friday, February 6. Rick Naylor ’17 was in the midst of some of the best shooting of his life at that time, and torched the Cards for 17 points on 5-6 shooting from beyond the arch. It was an ugly shooting day for the Cardinals. Davis, in particular, struggled with a 2-10 showing from the field, but he was able to get to the line and sink 7-8 free throws on his way to 12 hard-earned points. Mackey kept Wesleyan in the game with four three pointers, but Edmons was a total non-factor. Kuo had some success inside amongst the trees, posting a double-double with 14 points and 11 boards.

The game was tight throughout with nine lead changes, eight of which came in the second half. Wesleyan was within one in the game’s final minute, but two three-point attempts clanged off of iron and the Bantams headed home with the four-point win.

Harry Rafferty '17 (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics)
Harry Rafferty ’17 (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics)
Jack Mackey '16 (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics)
Jack Mackey ’16 (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics)

Wesleyan X-Factors: Guards Harry Rafferty ’17 and Jack Mackey ’16

Gliedman is going to make Saturday Hellish for one of these two talented guards, leaving the other one with a potential quickness advantage over his defender. Trinity often has three big men on the floor, but something has to give because Wesleyan usually has three point guard-like players on the court at once. There’s no way Ajayi, despite his athleticism, can stop Mackey or Rafferty on the perimeter. This could mean more minutes for Naylor, Andrew Hurd ’16 and Chris Turnbull ’17. Will they be up to the challenge of stopping passes like this from Mackey (we had to get this in here somewhere)?

Andrew Hurd '16
Andrew Hurd ’16

Trinity X-Factor: Point Guard Andrew Hurd ’16

I get the feeling that the opposing strengths of these two teams leans in favor of Wesleyan, and for that reason it will be crucial for Hurd to step up and play big for the Bantams. Starks gets a lot of credit for leading the Bantams offense, but Hurd is actually the team’s top assist man with 3.0 per game. He will often replace Starks on the court, but when they are on the floor together Hurd does most of the initiating of the offense, and they figure to be active together for a lot of this game in order to matchup with Wesleyan’s guards. Hurd will have to play solid basketball on both ends of the floor for the Bants to hold off the visiting Cardinals.

Three Questions:

1. Is Joseph Kuo ’17 ready for a bruising?

Ogundeko and Papadeas are two of the strongest big men in the NESCAC, and maybe in all of D-III. Ogundeko has really evolved as player since NESCAC play started. Kuo is the only real big man that Wesleyan rolls out on a regular basis. Expect Tugman and Gallivan to get some extra minutes in order to give Kuo a breather, but the sophomore is going to have to play big to keep Wesleyan in this one.

2. Which game does Trinity decide to play?

The one where they score in the 80s and 90s and just outshoot their opponents, or the one like the 71-69 win over Williams where the teams shot a combined 37.1 percent from the field, 25 percent from deep and 54.8 percent from the stripe?

The beauty for the Bantams is that they know they can win both ways, but I don’t think they want to get into a shootout. As a rule, Trinity likes low-scoring games.

As Starks put it in an interview with contributor Carson Kenney, “As usual we have been focusing on defense. We know that Wesleyan is a good shooting team. So our game plan is simply make them take tough, contested shots and don’t give them anything free and easy. If we take away their three point shooters I feel it will be tough for them to beat us. If we don’t do that then we will have a tough time beating them.”

3. What the heck are Trinity Days?

Well since we fancy ourselves journalists we went ahead and found out. Trinity students get two days off each semester around a weekend (how the College decides those days is beyond me) and it just so happened that Thursday and Friday of this week were off for all students. So, a lot of students are home for a long weekend. How many will come back early to cheer on their Bants is an important question. A lot of alums should still make Oosting pretty full, but there’s nothing better than a student section at a college basketball game.

What to Expect

Expect the game that the Bantams want to play; slow, tough and physical. Wesleyan is going to be hard-pressed to get any points in the paint, which will mean a lot of three-pointers and long jumpers, but Trinity won’t allow for many offensive rebounds. The Bantams will then look to chuck the ball into the paint and let the big men work.

The matchup will really come down to how well Wesleyan shoots the ball, and Wesleyan Head Coach Joe Reilly agrees. “[The reality of the NESCAC tournament is it’s going to be a team that shoots the ball well from the perimeter,” Reilly said. My mind is saying Trinity will win this one. They’ve beaten Wesleyan before, they’ve been the best team all year and they’re at home. But they’ve also won a lot of close games and barely squeaked by #8 Colby in the Quarterfinals. They haven’t been a dominant top seed, and with the Cards flying high I think they have a good shot at the upset. Damn the mind, my heart is going with Wesleyan. And isn’t heart what the playoffs are all about?

Prediction: Wesleyan 75 – Trinity 70

Last Chance to Buy or Sell: Stock Report 2/22

The disappointment was evident for Adam Philpott '15 and Co. after the loss on Saturday, but Bates still resides on the Pool C bubble for the NCAA Tournament.
The disappointment was evident for Adam Philpott ’15 and Co. after the loss on Saturday, but Bates still resides on the Pool C bubble for the NCAA Tournament. (Courtesy of Daryn Slover for Bates College)

It was a wild quarterfinals Saturday in the NESCAC, and we laid out our initial reactions in this video Saturday night, but we’ve now had a bit of time to digest all the action and think about how those results will impact Championship Weekend. We had two games go as expected with #1 Trinity and #2 Bowdoin sealing victories, and two underdogs win on the road in hostile environments.

Stock Up

The NbN Team

I got so caught up in the excitement of Saturday’s games that I almost didn’t realize that as a team we went 4-0 in our predictions, and Adam’s snipe of the Wesleyan upset was really impressive. He almost pinned the score, too. Obviously, no one wants to read about us, they want to read about the players. But I thought we deserved a quick little pat on the back, so excuse our self-indulgence.

Amherst Center David George ’17

Back to business now. George was an animal on Saturday. I don’t know if the big man reads the blog, but maybe he got a little riffed that I called out his offensive game in my Amherst-Tufts preview. Well, touché, my friend. George went 6-13 from the field and 7-8 from the stripe for 19 points in addition to 10 rebounds and two rejections. He was able to stay out of foul trouble, as well, which shouldn’t go overlooked given the Twin Towers with which he was forced to match up (though Hunter Sabety ’17 was far below 100 percent). As I said in the game preview, a productive George arguably makes Amherst the favorite for the NESCAC Championship. He will need to play well against Bowdoin’s seven-footer, John Swords ’15, and if the Lord Jeffs get through that game he will have another tall order if he goes against the strong Trinity frontcourt. If Wesleyan were to pull off another upset and meet Amherst in the championship George will still be an x-factor because the Cardinals’ strength is the backcourt, meaning George would have the opportunity to dominate.

Class of 2016 Player of the Year Candidates: Lucas Hausman ’16 and Connor Green ’16

Adam wrote earlier this year about the talented junior class in the NESCAC this year when Green topped 1,000 points in his career, and the class of 2016 has not slowed down, especially not these two. I think writer Peter Lindholm described it best via Twitter:

Hausman has now claimed a commanding lead in the scoring race, and will almost definitely end up with the crown unless he goes ice cold this weekend. His point totals since January 24 at Colby: 24, 30, 19, 32, 21, 44, 16, 17 and 37. And he’s not a phenomenal outside shooter. He gets most of his buckets by getting into the lane, drawing contact and finishing contested shots. When he gets to the line he is nearly automatic (88.0 percent on the year). And he’s been Bowdoin’s only consistent scorer all season.

Green’s advantage is his size and ability to rebound. Johnny McCarthy ’18 and Dan Wohl ’15 are the only perimeter players with more rebounds than Green. Green also stretches the floor a little better as he’s knocking down over 40 percent of his trey balls.

Both of these guys are phenomenal players capable of taking over games, and I expect fireworks when they go at it on Saturday.

Wesleyan Forward Joe Edmonds ’16

Head Coach Joe Reilly has settled on a starting five that rarely leaves the floor. All fives of Reilly’s starters against Bates played at least 29 minutes, and for Edmonds, who has started 14 of 25 games this year, that was his third consecutive game starting and playing over 30 minutes. His two highest-scoring games have come over that stretch as well. The Cardinals essentially run out three point guards in Harry Rafferty ’17, BJ Davis ’16 and Jack Mackey ’16, so there are a lot of drive and kick opportunities, and Edmonds, as the best three point shooter on the roster, really has the ability to make an impact for the Cardinals. He did just that in the win over Bates, leading the Cards with 22 points and going 5-6 from deep.

Stock Down

Offense of the Trinity Frontcourt

Trinity was looking unbeatable recently, coupling a suddenly explosive offense with its usual lockdown D, but the Bantams put up a mediocre 66 points against a Colby team whose tallest impact player, besides Sam Willson ’16, is its point guard, Luke Westman ’16. The combination of Alex Conaway ’15, George Papadeas ’15, Shay Ajayi ’16 and Ed Ogundeko ’17 isn’t exactly known for its collective offensive skill set, and the big guys didn’t play badly on Saturday (combined 11-22 from the field), but each and every one of them had size and strength advantages over their defenders and didn’t dominate like they should have. Down the stretch Ogundeko made a big impact with 11 points in the second half, but he was the only one to make a difference. The defense is fine, and will still give the Bantams a chance to win it all, but they will need some low-post scoring to win two games next weekend.

Amherst Guard Jeff Racy ’17

Since exploding for 30 points on 10-14 three-point shooting at Conn. College on February 6, Racy is 9-27 (33.3 percent) from deep. For a 41.3 percent three-point shooter on the season, that is not so great. I had Racy as my x-factor in the Lord Jeffs’ matchup with Tufts. As it turned out they didn’t need much from Racy as the game was over before it even started, but going forward, Green and Racy are the only guys that scare opposing defenses when they rise up from beyond the arch, so Amherst needs Racy to get hot once again.

Wesleyan Point Guard Triumvirate

Mackey and the Cards pulled off the big upset against the Bobcats, despite poor shooting from the Wesleyan guards. (Courtesy of Daryn Slover for Bates College)
Mackey and the Cards pulled off the big upset against the Bobcats, despite poor shooting from the Wesleyan guards. (Courtesy of Daryn Slover for Bates College)

Mackey made it into our Stock Up section last week, and he had another fine game on Saturday against Bates (18 points, 7-18 FG, 4-12 3PT FG, 6 rebounds), but his running mates, Davis and Rafferty, were anemic on the offensive end. They’re both really quality shooters so to see them go so cold was a surprise. I have a lot of concerns for Wesleyan this weekend. They’re undersized on the perimeter, they rely on the three-point shot, they have little depth, and they don’t have a clear go-to guy that they can hand the ball to at the end of a game. Of course that’s not always necessary. I’m sure that any of the trio would be comfortable with the ball in his hands in the final seconds. But Coach Joe Reilly is leaning so heavily on this group that I doubt that they can sustain a high level of play for the 80 minutes that will be necessary to take home the crown this weekend. Furthermore, their games are too similar. Davis brings a bit more quickness and driving ability to the floor than the others, Rafferty is a lefty and a really smooth shooter with range and Mackey likes to shoot off the dribble, but when it comes down to it they are all point guards who want to score the basketball. The unconventional lineup can cause problems against some opponents, but when it doesn’t work out you can have stat lines like the combined 11-36 (30.6 percent) from the field that Mackey, Davis and Rafferty put together on Saturday.

NESCAC Quarterfinal Preview: #6 Wesleyan at #3 Bates

Can Bates finish up an undefeated season at Alumni Gym? (Courtesy of Bates Athletics)
Can Bates finish up an undefeated season at Alumni Gym? (Courtesy of Bates Athletics)

To get you ready for Quarterfinal Saturday, the craziest day on the NESCAC calendar, we are going to go in-depth on all four games. The format for each game preview will vary a little, but our goal is to prepare you to expect the unexpected for every game this weekend.

Last time they played: Wesleyan got strong first half performances from Joe Edmonds ’16 and Harry Rafferty and led by four at halftime. After Mike Boornazian ’16 brought the teams to even at 38 all a few minutes into the half, Wesleyan hit three consecutive threes to take a nine-point lead. It looked like Wesleyan was going to notch a big win until Graham Safford ’15 went off. He scored 18 of his 31 points in the final 12:24 to will Bates to the win. Boornazian was the only other Bobcat in double figures while Rafferty, Edmonds and Jack Mackey ’16 all scored 15 points or more for the Cardinals.

Bates X-factor: Forwards Mike Newton ’16 and Max Eaton ’17

The biggest reason for Bates’ great start to the season was the improved play of both Delpeche brothers, but both have cooled off at this point. Tuesday, the two combined for only two points. Newton and Eaton have both received more playing time to compensate, but they are different players. They can shoot some which helps give Bates spacing, but they lack the ability to finish around the rim like Malcolm or Marcus can. If one of the Delpeches struggles, then Newton or Eaton will have to play major minutes. And given the Cardinals’ X-factor, it might help to have a forward who can play away from the basket on the floor.

Wesleyan X-factor: Center Joseph Kuo ’17

The Cardinals have become progressively more perimeter oriented as the year has gone along, but they are still going to make sure to get Kuo the ball a lot. He still has possessions where he makes moves and ends up missing the rim by a couple of feet, but Kuo still makes enough of his post shots that teams have to at least think about doubling him. On defense, he is a good rim protector who does a good job of avoiding fouls. Why are both team’s X-factors post players? Because the perimeter play could very much be a wash given all the talent out there. In the interior and on the boards is where both of these teams really win and lose games.

Three Questions

1. How does Bates try to slow down Wesleyan?

The Bobcats played some 1-3-1 zone earlier in the year, but we have seen less and less of that zone as the season has gone along. Wesleyan has good personnel to play against the zone also with a knockdown shooter in Jack Mackey ’16 and a slasher in BJ Davis ’16. Still, Bates has not had great success in man-to-man. Coach Jon Furbush kept trying different players against Lucas Hausman ’16, but none of them slowed him down very much. If Bates is in man then Wesleyan will likely give the ball to Davis and let him go to work. In their first game, Davis handed out a season high 11 assists. Because Joe Edmonds ’16 has been playing so well for Wesleyan, Boornazian will probably have to guard him because he has the best size. That will leave Billy Selmon ’15 on Davis. Selmon is not known as a defensive whiz, but at the very least he has a good size advantage over Davis. If the match-ups aren’t working for Bates then they will slow down the pace and play zone.

2. Did Wesleyan turn a corner last weekend?

Winning on the road in conference play is not easy, but the Cardinals just had two of them by more than 20 points last weekend. The win against Williams especially was impressive given the teams played earlier in the season and the Ephs won in OT. The Cardinals have led in the second half of a couple of their losses, including their first match-up with Bates and a 65-61 loss to Trinity two weekends ago. Yet, they are also a team that got their doors blown off at Middlebury and got handled easily by Amherst. This team does have a different look than it did near the beginning of the year. Jack Mackey ’16 and Davis are the leaders of the team while Harry Rafferty ’17 has seen his role been reduced somewhat. The Cardinals aren’t as good as they looked last weekend, but they are playing better than Bates right now.

3. Can the crowd be a factor?

Bates has a somewhat unusual academic schedule, and students are on break until Monday morning. The Bobcats are trying to get students back early, as seen above, and how many actually return could have a big impact if the game is close. Even though studies have found home advantage is an overrated aspect in many sports, college basketball is one place where it really does matter. That study looks at Division I schools which usually have more boisterous crowds, but if any school can claim a home-court advantage, it’s the Bobcats. For what its worth, more than 100 people have said on Facebook that they will be at the game, but we won’t know until after tip-off really how many people show up.

What to Expect

Wesleyan is still kicking themselves for letting the first match-up slip away. The Cardinals 5-5 record in conference misses the fact that two of those wins came against Bowdoin and Tufts, good quality teams. Their balance is what makes them good, but it’s also true that a lot of their scorers are streaky. It is usually two or three guys who carry the load each game and not everybody scoring 10 points each game. To me, Bates has slipped just a little bit in conference play. A lot of their wins ended up being close ones at home, and the Alumni Gym magic can only do so much. It is also unlikely that Wesleyan will allow Safford to go off like he did last game. Safford and Boornazian will keep it close, but the ability of all five players on Wesleyan to score will be the difference in a low scoring game.

Prediction: Wesleyan 68 – Bates 58

Time to Shuffle the Deck: Weekend Preview 2/6

Malcolm Delpeche '17 dunks against Wesleyan last weekend. (Photo courtesy of Phyllis Jensen and Bates Athletics)
Malcolm Delpeche ’17 dunks against Wesleyan last weekend. (Photo courtesy of Phyllis Jensen and Bates Athletics)

The penultimate weekend of the NESCAC schedule should clear up the logjam in the middle of the conference. Only a game and half separates teams 2-9 right now, meaning that Colby, currently not even making the NESCAC tournament, would very likely be the #2 seed if they won their final three conference games. Now, that isn’t likely to happen, but it just goes to show that the standings are a mess right now. This might be the weekend when teams sort themselves out and some wannabe contenders reveal themselves as pretenders.

With the NESCAC tournament right around the corner, teams are jostling to get one of the top four spots in order to host a first round game. Any team that goes 2-0 this weekend has a good chance of accomplishing just that.

Three Players to Watch

1. Shooting Guard Mike Boornazian ’16 (Bates): Boornazian might be the most underrated player in the NESCAC. He is capable of guarding every position besides center because of his exceptional length. This weekend will be a treat with Boornazian tasked with slowing down Player of the Year favorite Dan Wohl ’15. The two are physically very similar: 6’5″ guards who are fluid enough to handle the ball. Boornazian is also no slouch on the offensive end. He only shoots 39.8 percent from the field to average 14.8 PPG, but he is crucial for taking pressure off of Graham Safford ’15. He can act as a secondary ball-handler when needed also. On Tuesday Safford sat out in order to rest, and Boornazian had one of his best games of the season finishing with 26 points. He might be overlooked at the end of the year for league awards, but Boornazian is critical for the Bobcats.

2. Power Forward Drew Madsen ’17 (Tufts): Per the Tufts student newspaper, Hunter Sabety ’17 sustained what appeared to be a serious knee injury that will keep him out for the rest of the year. If that is the case, then it is time to get familiar with Madsen, the talented 6’7″ backup to Sabety. He was already a part of the rotation before the injury, and now he will see his minutes climb even more. He has not put up tremendous per minute stats in his limited time so do not expect him to simply replace Sabety. However, he is a big body with enough skill to make plays. Given the ability of Tom Palleschi ’17 to make jumpers, Madsen should consider only ever leaving the paint when he needs to avoid a three second call. The rest of the time he should be battling position for any offensive rebound. Sabety, for all of his offensive prowess, was not a fantastic defender, so Madsen could offset his lack of offensive skill that way.

3. Shooting Guard Ryan Jann ’16 (Colby): The Mules started NESCAC play 3-0, and for a brief span they were at the top of the NESCAC standings. Since then they have lost their last four NESCAC games and found out Chris Hudnut ’16 is out with a knee injury for the rest of the year. Luke Westman ’16 is a great player, but his lack of a jump shot means he is not capable of being a go-to scorer. So now the sharpshooter Jann is the number one option for Colby. He exploded for 27 against Trinity, and he looked comfortable finding space to get his shot off. He has also gotten better as a distributor this year, but it is his scoring that will be most needed. The Mules need one more win to get into the NESCAC tournament, and Jann will have to shoot them there.

 Three Games to Watch

3. Sunday 1:00 PM: Middlebury (15-4, 3-3) at Bowdoin (14-6, 4-3)

This is the NbN grudge match between myself and Joe. Last season saw Middlebury pull out a close victory because Coach Tim Gilbride called a timeout when he didn’t have one after Bowdoin tied the game with under five seconds remaining. The two rosters look very different than they did a year ago with Dylan Sinnickson ’15, Hunter Merryman ’15 and John Swords ’15 the only starters returning. How Middlebury defends Lucas Hausman ’16 could decide the game. The Panthers love to push the pace, but Hausman is exceptional in transition, even though as a team Bowdoin does not like to go fast because of their short rotation. Jake Brown ’17 usually takes on opponents’ point guards, but he might guard Hausman for stretches because of his quickness. Though Matt St. Amour ’17 is a good team defender who draws a lot of charges, he is still not as quick as he was before his ACL injury.

Given how Connor Green ’16 went off last weekend against the Polar Bears, Dylan Sinnickson ’15 could be primed for a big day. After struggling somewhat by his lofty standards in conference play, Sinnickson has averaged 25.0 PPG and 15.5 RPG in his last two games. He and Brown should look to attack John Swords ’15 at the basket because of the depleted Bowdoin backcourt, but an underrated improvement from Swords has been his ability to stay out of foul trouble in nearly every game, only fouling out once all season. The loser of this game will all but certainly be forced to go on the road in the first round of the NESCAC tournament.

2. Friday 7:00 PM: Williams (12-7, 3-3) at Bates (15-4, 4-2)

The Bobcats are a perfect 10-0 at home this season, and their fans are sure to come out for the final home games of the season this weekend. Beating them in Alumni Gymnasium, especially in what could be the seniors’ final home games, is going to be a tall task. Even though Williams is only 3-3, they just smacked Middlebury in their only game last weekend. Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15 looks 100 percent again after missing time due to a hand injury.

We all know Williams is going to play with Dan Aronowitz ’17 as an undersized power forward and Ryan Kilcullen ’15 at center, so the question becomes whether Bates coach Jon Furbush is capable of playing two big men for most of the game. He will want to keep both Marcus and Malcolm Delpeche ’17 on the floor for most of the game in order to control the boards and get easy baskets. However, Aronowitz will look to attack using his combination of shooting and slashing against a bigger defender. Bates can also easily go small with Adam Philpott ’15 acting as power forward. The chess match between the two youngest coaches in the NESCAC, Furbush and Kevin App, will be fun. App has played a tight rotation all season, but he could mix things up and play Darrias Sime ’16 or Edward Flynn ’16 for longer minutes.

Ultimately, a great deal of Williams’ games come down to how they shoot the ball. Because they shoot so many threes, when a lot of them go in they are hard to beat. Bates will try to make up for that by destroying the Ephs on the glass and sticking to shooters as closely as possible. This is going to be the most fun game to watch because of the possibility for offensive fireworks and a first rate atmosphere.

1. Friday 7:00 PM: Trinity (16-5, 6-1) at Wesleyan (14-6, 3-3)

In the same year that the University of Virginia is in the Top Five behind a suffocating defense, the Bantams are on top of the NESCAC in much the same way. By the way, Jaquann Starks ’16 has been absolutely en fuego from beyond the arc recently. In NESCAC play he is shooting the third best percentage from deep, 56.2 percent, while making the third most threes per game, 2.6. In fact, he is shooting a higher percentage from three than he is from the field. Though Trinity wants him to continue to get into the lane, they would prefer he simply continue to nail shots from downtown. Though we have harped on how Trinity’s balance means different guys step up every game, Starks is the one guy they need to perform. In the three Bantam loses in 2015, Starks has averaged an anemic 3.0 PPG, well below his 13.4 PPG season average.

Wesleyan needs to not back down from the physical presence of Trinity. An underrated part of the Bantams defense is how uncomfortable they make things on the perimeter for teams, so it helps that Wesleyan can rely on BJ Davis ’16, Jack Mackey ’16 or Harry Rafferty ’17 to handle the ball. Davis in particular is adept at getting into the lane, and even if he isn’t finishing amongst the big men, it could stretch the Trinity defense enough to get Mackey open looks. Both teams will be fine with a slow plodding pace. That should keep the game in the 50s, meaning that this game might come down to offensive execution in the final five minutes. There the edge goes to Trinity, who, even though they don’t play great offense overall, manage to find ways to grind out points at the end of the game. When these two met last year, Trinity led by about five points for most of the second half, and Wesleyan was never able to get over the hump.

The game is in Middletown, but the Bantams are hoping a road win helps them secure home court for the NESCAC tournament. Trinity’s home court advantage is not significant, but the Bantams would still love the #1 seed to have the opportunity to host the NESCAC semi-finals and final if they get past their first round opponent. If they beat the Cardinals, they will be able to taste it.

Friday Recap and Saturday/Sunday Preview

Reaction to Friday’s Games

Will the Real Middlebury Please Stand Up?

You’re killing me, guys. A 9-0 start, an 0-2 start to conference play including a blowout loss to Tufts, an absolute dismantling of Wesleyan, just scraping by with a win against the conference’s only remaining winless team, and now another blowout loss to the Ephs. I was starting to think that the Tufts and Conn. games could be chalked up to having to play on Sunday and maybe that’s where Middlebury’s struggles were based, but there was no excuse for this one. Nearly a full week of rest and preparation and the Panthers just fell flat. And the game was never really close. Middlebury had the lead for all of one possession of the ball game before Williams stole it away for good with a Dan Aronowitz ’17 trey with 19:11 to go in the first half.

Hayden Rooke-Ley '15 poured in 20 points on 5-11 (3-8 3PT) shooting to lead all scorers. (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)
Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15 poured in 20 points on 5-11 (3-8 3PT) shooting to lead all scorers. (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)

Obviously, I’m closer to the Middlebury team than any other in the NESCAC, and so I still have hope for this season because I understand why they’ve had some of their struggles. Matt St. Amour ’17 returned tonight but likely wasn’t at full strength and showed some rust from the three-point line, going 0-4. Captain Dean Brierley ’15, who has filled in in the starting lineup the last three games, is a capable shooter himself but St. Amour has a more dynamic offensive game when he’s good and healthy. The performance from Matt Daley ’16 was certainly promising. It’s been a month now since the athletic big man has returned to action but Coach Jeff Brown has been working him into the rotation slowly. For what reason, we don’t know. Perhaps to teach Daley a lesson or simply because Nick Tarantino ’18 had been playing consistently. However, a near double-double from Daley in just 21 minutes (a season high) might inspire Coach Brown to let Daley loose a bit more going forward. It’s worth the chance because obviously this team is not in a place right now where it can compete for the NESCAC title, and Daley could be an X-factor down the stretch. Last but not least, it was just an uncharacteristic night for Middlebury as they shot poorly from everywhere on the floor and they allowed the Ephs to shoot over 50 percent from the floor. On the season Middlebury opponents were shooting under 37 percent from the field before this game. Maybe the sloppy performance has something to do with the fact that J-term just ended for the Middlebury team. Perhaps they felt that little bit of fatigue mixed with relief that always comes with passing in a final paper or taking that final exam. But they will need to overcome distractions much more serious than that if they are going to win the NESCAC this season.

The PG Battle in Amherst is Over

Reid Berman ’17 is the real deal. I talked in the Friday Preview about how Berman was a pass-first point guard who could really grab hold of the starting job with a good performance on Friday night. Berman did pretty much exactly what he was supposed to do, dishing out 13 assists. And as advertised, he didn’t look to shoot much, only taking five shots (missing them all). Of course, Berman is not a polished product. Zero percent from the floor isn’t a good stat, no matter how many assists you tally, and he also turned the ball over six times, but he seems to be a good fit on a team with three starters who can knock down a lot of trey balls.

All Hail the Bantams

For at least one day, Trinity is the undisputed king of the ‘CAC. I doubted the Bantams going into this one, thinking that John Swords ’15 would force Trinity to take a lot of threes and I didn’t think a lot of those threes would go in. Well, I was half right. Trinity attempted 26 threes, just three short of a season high, but they were able to sink 11 of them (42.3 percent). Rick Naylor ’16 was the hero for the Bantams, scoring seven straight points, including a three at the end of regulation and four points to open the overtime period, to help clinch the victory.

Rick Naylor '16 scored 13 of his 16 points after halftime to help the Bantams beat the Polar Bears. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)
Rick Naylor ’16 scored 13 of his 16 points after halftime to help the Bantams beat the Polar Bears. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)

Defense was the story of the night. Shot clock violations played into the narrative on both sides. Trinity forced one near the end of regulation and Bowdoin caused their own with five seconds left in overtime, but was unable to get a clean shot for the win and Bryan Hurley’s ’15 desperation three was no good as the buzzer sounded.

Ed Ogundeko ’17 continues to be a beast on the boards for Trinity. The 6’6″ forward snagged another 12 rebounds and still leads the NESCAC in rebounds per conference game despite coming off of the bench and only playing 20.5 minutes per conference game.

If there’s a downside to the Bantams thrilling victory, it might be that this game would suggest that Trinity needs an uncharacteristically efficient shooting night in order to beat the NESCAC’s best. But this is just one game, so let’s not jump to conclusions. Instead, let’s let the Bantams enjoy their time atop the heap. If we’ve learned anything in the NESCAC this season it is that no one is safe, so don’t get too comfortable up there.

Saturday/Sunday Preview

Players to Watch

1. Guard Joseph Lin ’15 (Hamilton)

Hamilton has given Middlebury a tough time in these teams’ last two matchups, Middlebury is going to be angry and Lin and Co. got Friday off so they’re going to be fresh. The student body is on vacation in Middlebury so it won’t be a particularly boisterous crowd, and I think that could benefit Lin, who had his worst conference game so far in the Hamilton win over Williams last week. I think Lin bounces back despite Middlebury’s tough defense. This is somewhat of a gut call, but if there’s one reason that I think Lin could have a big game it’s simply that I don’t see anyone else in the Hamilton starting five drawing a favorable matchup. Not that Lin vs. Jake Brown ’17 is an easy assignment for Lin to score on, but I think the Continentals lean heavily on the senior guard in this one and that he rises to the occasion.

2. Center John Swords ’15 (Bowdoin)

Last night Swords was more active and engaged on the offensive end than he has looked in a lot of games recently shooting it 13 times, a season high. Unfortunately he made only six, a terrible night considering his usual shooting percentages. Still, the Polar Bears would be happy to have Swords shoot so often every game. How Swords’ minutes get managed today will be fascinating to watch. He played a season high 41 minutes against Trinity, a very physical team. Bowdoin does not really have another player who can keep David George ’17 off of the offensive boards for Amherst so they are going to need their big guy to play a lot. Whether Swords is physically up for it is a big question. If he is not then the Polar Bears will need to dig deep if they want to avoid an 0-2 weekend.

3. Guard Harry Rafferty ’17 (Wesleyan)

Like Wesleyan as a team, at times Rafferty looks like one of the finer guards in the conference who is especially lethal from downtown. Then he also has games where he struggles to find his rhythm. Yesterday, Rafferty came off the bench, something he has done a couple of other times only to return to the starting lineup the next game. He played well coming off the pine with 15 points, six rebounds and three assists. That was not enough for Wesleyan to overcome a huge night from Graham Safford ’15. Rafferty has become more of a straight scorer this year, so making him the primary scorer off the bench is not actually a crazy idea. He and Tarik Smith ’17 could end up locking horns on both ends of the floor if both of them come off the bench. That two guards so talented are both filling a reserve role makes for an interesting storyline to watch today.

Game of the Day: Bowdoin (13-5, 4-2) at Amherst (13-5, 3-3), 3:00 PM

I get the feeling that this will be the closest of the five games to be played today and tomorrow. After Bowdoin lost the nail-biter with Trinity yesterday this game took on a lot more meaning for the Polar Bears, who could go from potential number one seed to middle of the pack over the course of two days if they lose to the Lord Jeffs. As mentioned above, the Swords-George matchup should be a good one, but the most interesting battles to watch will not be when the ball is in either player’s hands, but rather the fights for rebounds. Both players are defense-first and are top five in both rebound and blocks per game. Offensively, both players are very efficient, so something will have to give in this matchup.

Amherst’s biggest challenge will be stopping explosive guard Lucas Hausman ’16. The kid just keeps getting better and does most of his damage inside the arc or at the free throw line. The Lord Jeffs have had some difficult stopping guard penetration this season and have committed the third-most personal fouls per game in the NESCAC. Those two factors combined could mean a lot of trips to the line for Hausman, a 91.1 percent free throw shooter who went 13-13 from the stripe against Trinity last night. We will see some combination of Johnny McCarthy ’18 and Connor Green ’16 lined up with Hausman. Whether either player can slow down the Bowdoin scoring machine could be the difference in this game.

Lucas Hausman '16 has been unstoppable as of late. The junior dropped a career-high 30 against Trinity in a losing effort on Friday. (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics/www.CIPhotography.com)
Lucas Hausman ’16 has been unstoppable as of late. The junior dropped a career-high 30 against Trinity in a losing effort on Friday. (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics/www.CIPhotography.com)

Another interesting matchup occurs at the point guard position, where both teams employ Rajon Rondo-like playmakers. Hurley and Berman are both looking to pass first, the latter almost to a fault, so it should be fun watching them attack one another possession after possession. Hurley obviously gives up some size to Berman, but that shouldn’t be much of a disadvantage in this game seeing as Berman is unlikely to rise and fire, meaning that Hurley could have one of his best defensive games of the season today.

I missed on my prediction yesterday when I stated that Bowdoin would win by 10 over the Bantams, and today I’m going to have to pick against the Polar Bears. Especially given Amherst’s home court advantage, I think the Lord Jeffs win on a couple late free throws by Green. Keep in mind, though, that Amherst lacks a dead eye free throw shooter like Hausman. Green is the best from the stripe and he is shooting under 75 percent. I think he comes up clutch today, but the opportunity is there for Bowdoin to foul early and capitalize on some missed front ends of a one-and-one. Nevertheless, the pick is in: Amherst by five.

Enjoy all the games today.