Tag: Harry Roberson

Rivals Meet in Busy Slate: Weekend Preview 4/11

Connor Speed '18 and Bates are ready for their series against Colby. (Courtesy of Bates Athletics)
Connor Speed ’18 and Bates are ready for their series against Colby. (Courtesy of Bates Athletics)

Week by week we get closer to that bonanza of baseball they call the NESCAC playoffs. We are now officially less than a month from when the tournament will kick off, but oh boy is there a lot of baseball still to be played, baseball which, at least this weekend, has been postponed another day due to weather.

The series between Colby and Bates will be a big piece in the puzzle for figuring out what two teams will emerge from the East. Trinity will try to force their way into the playoff conversation with a win or two against Tufts. Meanwhile out West, the always charged matchup between Amherst and Williams will take place, most likely with a playoff berth on the line. Still a lot of baseball after this weekend, but the winner of the series will have a serious leg up. Middlebury and Hamilton play in our first chance to see the Continentals in conference play.

Keep an eye on the weather too. The rain and snow that has fallen over most of New England is mostly gone at this point, but it has forced every series to change their schedule to a Saturday doubleheader and Sunday matinee game.

Three to Watch

1. Right Fielder Nate Pajka ’16 (Bates)

Pajka caught the entire league’s attention when he hit four home runs on Bates’ spring trip, and he has continued to show his power with a double in four of his last five games. He has not cooled down much and has a season long OBP of .467 to go along with his exceptional .776 slugging percentage, tied for second in the NESCAC. In 2014, Pajka showed he had power with three homers, but he saw a dip in his batting average from his sophomore year. Now he is hitting for power and average. Despite losing their two best hitters from a year ago, the Bobcat offense has been nearly as good in large part because of the improvement from Pajka.

2. Starting Pitcher Spencer Vogelbach ’18 (Hamilton)

The freshmen from Oaks Christian School in Sothern California, also known as Hollywood High, appears to be on the cusp of being a big part of the rotation for Hamilton. The number that jumps out from his three starts is his 19 strikeouts which looks even better when you realize he has walked only three batters. Vogelbach is 6’3″and comes over the top in his windup making him tough to pick up on at times. Vogelbach could get his first NESCAC start this weekend, but even if he doesn’t, he is one to keep an eye on going forward at Hamilton.

3. Starting Pitcher John Cook ’15 (Amherst)

This series against Williams is a big opportunity for Cook to place himself in the running for NESCAC Pitcher of the Year. At this point the field is still wide open because pitchers have still only had a few starts each. The Jeffs want a big series opening game on Friday. Amherst has an ace, something that the Ephs desperately lack. We have not seen too much of Cook so far, but he has an ERA below 3.00. He is also someone capable of racking up a lot of strikeouts quickly. Even if the rest of the Amherst rotation is not great, a fantastic Cook and that loaded lineup should be more than enough for the Jeffs.

Predictions:

We are not going to predict every series this weekend, but these are our quick thoughts on the Middlebury-Hamilton, Tufts-Trinity, and Williams-Amherst series.

For Middlebury, they are really looking to get the monkey off their back and win one game. It will take somebody on the pitching staff stepping up and pitching deep into a game to make it happen. The offense has scored enough runs to win. Hamilton meanwhile needs contributions up and down the lineup. Kenny Collins ’17 has been a more than capable Robin to Joe Jensen’s Batman. Hamilton knows they need a sweep to keep up with the other teams in the West.

Tufts and Trinity could end up having a very low-scoring series. At least the Bantams are hoping that it goes that way given how their offense has struggled. Jed Robinson ’16 and the rest of the rotation will have to pound the zone and make Tufts beat them by hitting the ball hard instead of getting on through walks. The Bantams are going to have to find some way to score, most likely by taking chances on the base paths and playing small ball. The Jumbos want to score early and allow their pitchers to attack the Trinity hitters.

After last week’s missed opportunity against Wesleyan, the Ephs are hoping their last stand doesn’t turn into a Pickett’s Charge where their pitchers are the Confederates and the Amherst batters are the entrenched Union forces tearing apart everything in front of them. Harry Roberson ’18 has more than lived up to the hype with a batting average ABOVE .500. Outside of Cook, every Amherst pitcher has his flaws which the Williams lineup will have to exploit. The Ephs are also hoping that Luke Rodino ’17 can repeat his solid start against Wesleyan. Getting a quality start from one of their other starters is also a must. Amherst has much more talent, but there is enough on the Williams roster to spring a series upset and take two of three.

Series of the Week: Bates (6-8, 1-1) at Colby (11-4, 2-1)

Saturday 12:00: Connor Colombo ’16 (Bates) vs. Scott Goldberg ’15 (Colby). Saturday 3:00 PM: Will Levangie ’16 (Bates) vs. Greg Ladd ’15 (Colby). Sunday Time TBA: Connor Speed ’18 (Bates) vs. Soren Hanson ’16 (Colby).

This series will have the first NESCAC games of the year played in Maine. Or at least we hope so, as the Bates grounds crew works hard to get the field ready. A lot is at stake in this one up north. A year ago Bates taking two of three from Colby ended up being the deciding factor in the Bobcats making the playoffs.

The big difference between Bates and Colby is in the pitching department. The Mules have a very clear top three while the Bobcats rely on a carousel of arms. Not that Bates is that necessarily worse than Colby (Bates has a lower team ERA), but they have a different approaches given their rosters this year. However, in conference play, having a clear top three is a big advantage, especially when that three is as good as Colby’s is. Soren Hanson ’16 has not allowed an earned run yet in his twelve innings. If Bates can knock out a starter early, then the lack of pitching depth could come back to haunt the Mules.

Pajka and Colby’s Tommy Forese ’16 are somewhat mirror images of each other. Both flashed a little power last year (Pajka more than Forese) and are now enjoying big breakout years where they are tied for the league lead with four homers. The supporting cast for Colby has been a little bit better this year, but their statistics are probably a little bit inflated by their early season schedule. Ryder Arsenault ’17 has the potential to swing a game for Colby with his speed on the bases.

In the end we prefer the certainty in pitching that Colby brings to the table more than the Pu Pu platter of pitchers Bates has. And for the record, I love Pu Pu platters from the local Chinese take-out.

Prediction: Colby wins two of three.

Cardinals Start Where They Ended: Baseball Power Rankings 3/25

The NESCAC conference season is starting Friday, albeit in a somewhat lesser fashion than usual because of the weather. Still, with the beginning of conference games upon us, now is a good time as ever to Power Rank the teams. You will get a good idea of our impressions for every team from this. Then check back in later today to see our predictions for how the teams will finish in the standings and who will make the NCAA tournament.

All records are from 2015

1. Wesleyan (8-4, 0-0)

A year ago we didn’t expect Wesleyan to end up winning the NESCAC, but now we will be more surprised if they DON’T win it. The offense led by Wesleyan’s all-time hits leader Donnie Cimino ’15 and CoSIDA All-American Andrew Yin ’15 is stacked across the board. Nick Cooney ’15 and Gavin Pittore ’16 anchor the pitching staff. This team only has one weakness that we can point out: pitching depth. Jeff Blout ’14, Chris Law ’14 and Jimmy Hill ’14 combined to throw 117 innings – 31 percent of Wesleyan’s total – last season. Four of the top five pitchers in terms of innings are back but after that top four there is some uncertainty. Of course, Wesleyan’s problem is peanuts compared to those that other contenders have to deal with.

2. Tufts (9-3, 0-0)

The Jumbos have gotten off to a good start once again this year. Unlike the other NESCAC schools that fly all the way south to either Florida or Arizona, Tufts travels to North Carolina and Virginia. Connor McDavitt ’15 is getting on-base at a nifty .458 OBP to get things going at the top of the lineup. The numbers for the pitching staff are gaudy which gives pause about the level of competition that the Jumbos have faced, but this is also the most accomplished staff in the league. Tufts will face off in a big series against Bowdoin starting Friday.

3. Amherst (6-6, 0-0)

The Jeffs remain somewhat of a mystery after their spring trip. Their split of a doubleheader against #4 St. Thomas is an indication of how good the Jeffs can be. Ace John Cook ’15 was excellent in that start going 7.1 innings and a solo home run was the only offense St. Thomas managed against him. However, the Jeffs also gave up twelve runs in consecutive seven inning games. New shortstop Harry Roberson ’17 is hitting the ball great with an average well above .400, but he also already has seven errors, an untenable amount at this point. This team might not be as deep as past years which could ultimately doom them in the NESCAC race.

4. Colby (6-1, 0-0)

The Mules stock has gone up the most from the beginning of the season. They are still in the midst of their trip to Florida, but the early returns have been very promising. Unfortunately, we only have the statistics for two of their games, but their scoring differential has been great. Their offense has scored above 10 runs in five of their seven games thus far. Given that this was the worst offense in the NESCAC a year ago and they lost several key pieces, that could spell great news for the Mules. We won’t see them in NESCAC action until next weekend, however.

5. Bates (5-3, 0-0)

We have barely seen the Bobcats in action over the past month, and we still know very little about how their rotation is going to shake out. Because they have had so few games, their starters have only been going a few innings before giving way to their deep bullpen. A good sign for the Bobcats’ offense is that they are averaging the second most walks per game, something that they were very good at a year ago as well. Evan Czopek ’16 has been fantastic thus far in the lineup.

6. Bowdoin (5-8, 0-0)

The Polar Bears struggled through a somewhat uneven spring break, but they also faced some injury problems as well as a hard stretch of opponents. The key for them, as we said before, is finding a way to hit all the way through their lineup. Chad Martin ’16 has hit three home runs already in the middle of the lineup and has cemented himself as one of the premier power hitters in the league. Henry Van Zant ’15 allowed five runs but also struck out 13 batters with no walks in his last outing in Florida. If he becomes a fully fledged ace, then the Polar Bears will be thinking playoffs.

7. Trinity (7-5, 0-0)

The Bantams spring trip started out great with a five-game winning streak before they dropped five out of seven games to finish on a down note. The main problem for them on the second half of their trip was the offense averaging only 2.5 runs per game in the final six games. Once again, none of the Bantams showed much power as the team didn’t hit any home runs on their trip, but the impact of freshman Brendan Pierce ’18 in the lineup is promising. Some players like Daniel Pidgeon ’15 are bound to rebound from a slow start and help the Bantam offense recover at least somewhat. Also, note how tightly-packed the 4-7 spots are. The East, behind Tufts, remains wide open and these teams are basically interchangeable at this point.

8. Williams (3-3, 0-0)

The Ephs only started their spring trip this past weekend so they are still a little behind some of the other teams at this point. Besides Jack Cloud ’17, none of the Ephs main hitters have hit well thus far, and the back end of the rotation has not looked great thus far either. The Ephs’ three wins have come against mediocre competition. Still, the Ephs can make those worries mostly go away with a dominant performance in their opening series against Middlebury.

9. Hamilton (6-5, 0-0)

We would have put the Continentals higher if they hadn’t dropped a doubleheader to Colby on Tuesday. The two games exposed the lack of quality starters for Hamilton behind Jjay Lane ’15. Cole Dreyfuss ’16 is 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA in his two starts so far so he could end up being a critical piece for Hamilton. The Colby starters basically shut down the Hamilton lineup besides Joe Jensen ’15. Hamilton will not open their NESCAC season until April 10 when they travel to Middlebury so they will remain in the background for a little while.

10. Middlebury (0-6, 0-0)

Still searching for their first win, the Panthers have seen consecutive late inning leads slip away the last two games in their opponents’ final at bat. Dylan Sinnickson ’15 has been a fun story so far, but Middlebury is not going to see results on the field unless their pitchers start getting opponents out more consistently. The team ERA is an almost unfathomable 13.92 at this point. That number must, and certainly will, come way down. Still, Joe MacDonald ’16, who is expected to basically be an innings-eater (disclosure: Joe is the co-founder of Nothing but NESCAC) is the only pitcher with an ERA below 7.00 at this point. The good news is that the lineup is hitting better than last year with Raj Palekar ’18 enjoying a torrid start to his career, even though some of the guys expected to carry the load, MacDonald included, are off to slow starts.

Talent Aplenty for the Jeffs: Amherst Baseball Season Preview

Mike Odenwaelder is back to mash baseballs which is good news for Amherst. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)
Mike Odenwaelder ’16 is back to mash baseballs which is good news for Amherst. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

2014 Record: 30-11 (9-3, Second in NESCAC West), 0-2 in NESCAC Tournament, 2-2 in NCAA New England Regional.

Returning Starters: 8 (7 Position Players, 1 Starting Pitcher)

Projected Starting Lineup: (Stats are from 2014)

CF Brendon Hardin ’15 (.179/.304/.179, 0 HR, 6 RBI)
2B Andrew Vandini ’16 (.309/.401/.315, 0 HR, 25 RBI)
1B Mike Odenwaelder ’16 (.400/.452/.607, 6 HR, 31 RBI)
LF Yanni Thanopoulos ’17 (.312/.375/.409, 0 HR, 24 RBI)
C Connor Gunn ’16 (.307/.382/.444, 4 HR, 23 RBI)
RF Tyler Jacobs ’15 (.289/.331/.389, 2 HR, 27 RBI)
3B Sam Ellinwood ’18
SS Harry Roberson ’18
DH Max Steinhorn ’18

LHP John Cook ’15 (5-3, 1.93 ERA, 9.32 K/9, 64.2 IP)
RHP Keenan Szulik ’18 (6-0, 4.56 ERA, 6.93 K/9, 49.1 IP)
RHP Drew Fischer ’18

Offensive Overview:

If you didn’t look carefully at those stats from 2014, look again at Odenwaelder’s. Those were good enough for him to win NESCAC Player of the Year as a sophomore, and he followed that up by winning the Futures Collegiate summer league MVP award as well. The expectation is that Odenwaelder will be drafted at some point in the draft this spring, and it is possible that he gets picked somewhere in the top 15 rounds. There are plenty of other boppers around Odenwaelder, too. Both Gunn and Jacobs hit multiple home runs a season ago. Vandini will get on base a lot while Hardin will have to show he belongs at the top of the lineup. The bottom of the lineup looks completely different with three freshmen getting the first chance at those spots. The shortstop Roberson in particular is one name to keep an eye on as he was the ISL (Independent School League) MVP last season. There are a lot of new faces from a season ago, all of which have high expectations.

Defensive Overview:

The major change on defense is on the left side of the infield where the duo of Jacobs and Taiki Kasuga ’14 combined for 26 of Amherst’s 50 errors a season ago. That is why Jacobs is now playing right field, and the freshmen Roberson and Ellinwood are getting a crack at starting. They should be more steadily reliable defenders which will go a long way. Gunn threw out only 19 percent of runners who stole against him. That number will need to be much higher or else Amherst might look elsewhere and move Gunn to DH. Hardin is also a new center fielder so there are some big question marks surrounding the Amherst defense. The key will be Roberson and Ellinwood making the simple play. Having Vandini as his partner in the middle infield will help Roberson a little, too.

Pitching Overview:

The Jeffs lose a ton from their rotation a year ago. Two of their three top starters, Dylan Driscoll ’14 and Quinn Saunders-Kolberg ’14, along with two others who pitched more than 25 innings, graduated. Odenwaelder likely won’t pitch because of shoulder concerns, and he was dominant for the Jeffs when he came in for relief in 2014. Cook will be an ace at the top for them, but after that things get a little dicey. Szulik ended up pitching 49.1 innings, but he was a reliever for most of the season. He will need to become an important piece very quickly. Jackson Volle ’17 is  another returning pitcher who might make a major impact, but it will be the freshman Fischer who gets first crack at a weekend slot. That third spot could ultimately go to somebody else, though. If Cook replicates his dominant junior season, that will give the rest of the rotation a little bit more leeway to get their feet under them.

Storylines to Watch

1. How good are the freshman?

Trotting out three freshmen in your starting lineup is unusual, and it is even more so when you consider the three are playing SS, 3B and DH. Those are usually some of your best hitting positions for college players. The youth in the Amherst lineup stands in contrast to their West division rival Wesleyan who has upperclassmen manning every position. Don’t let the DH label fool you with Steinhorn. He is actually a speed demon who will see some time in the middle infield but is simply blocked by Vandini and Roberson. Throw in the fact that Fischer should get major run in the rotation, and the Jeffs are going to be one of the teams most heavily reliant on freshmen.

2. What is Odenwaelder’s ceiling?

He had a spectacular freshmen year and then managed to easily top that last season. Then last summer he was the best player in a league that includes a decent amount of Division-I players. Throw in the fact that he is 6’5″ and weighs 225 and you start to get an idea for why MLB scouts are going to be showing up for a good amount of the Jeffs games. It is a real shame is that we are unlikely to see Odenwaelder throw 90+ like he did a season ago. However, his ability to absolutely MASH should keep us happy. The only real potential speed bump is that some of the hitters around him struggle. Then you could see teams pitch around Odenwaelder. That is very unlikely to happen given all the talent on the Amherst roster. We expect his on-base percentage to top .500 and his slugging percentage to rise also. Think 2002 Barry Bonds, but without all the steroid baggage.

3. Does the bullpen hold up?

Even though the rotation looks shaky right now, I expect a reliable top three to emerge by the time that conference play begins. The problem might be that there is no depth behind that top three because of all the losses from a season ago. The Jeffs have almost nobody who threw innings last season ready to step into a big time role. Last year Eric Kotin ’14 appeared in an astounding 22 games over the course of the season. He got touched for runs a couple of times, but overall he was a big stabilizing force for Amherst. They need somebody like him to step up and help Amherst to close out close games.

Biggest Series: April 24-25 against Wesleyan

This is really the only series that matters in the West. That might sound harsh, but this is very much a two-tier division. Wesleyan and Amherst will make the NESCAC playoffs unless one of the three bottom teams comes out of nowhere. The winner of this series should take the West division. Yet, this series is really more of a measuring stick than anything else. The championship format for the NESCAC this year is different, and instead of the top team hosting, all games are being played in Nashua, New Hampshire. That won’t change the Jeffs’ desire for revenge for last season when Wesleyan took two out of three.