Dan Aronowitz ’17 looks to lead Williams past Wesleyan this weekend. (Courtesy of Williams College Athletics)
A couple of the games tonight are between teams on opposite ends of the spectrum, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be any tightly contested games. The game to watch is without a doubt Trinity at Tufts, as both teams are still vying for the top spot in the NESCAC, but Colby-Middlebury and Williams-Wesleyan could also be pretty great games. Some familiar names will lead their teams to easy victories, while other teams will only have a chance if their stars can put up the big numbers I’m anticipating. Here’s what’s in store for the weekend:
Friday Games
Bowdoin vs. Hamilton, Clinton, NY, 7:00 pm
As we all know, Lucas Hausman ‘15 is the top scorer in the NESCAC. Bowdoin relies heavily on Hausman’s average of 26.7 PPG in conference play. In fact, in their two biggest blowout conference losses against Tufts and Trinity, Hausman has only scored just 11 and 14 points respectively. Conversely, in their two conference wins against Bates and Colby, he scored 42 and then 35 points. On the other side, Hamilton is coming off their first conference win in which they took down Middlebury on a last second layup by Andrew Groll ’19. Groll has turned into Hamilton’s star in conference play, putting up 11.7 PPG and pulling down 8.7 RPG. Despite Groll’s aggressive play down low, I don’t see anyone stopping Hausman, and I don’t think the Continentals can keep up with Bowdoin’s scoring.
Prediction: Bowdoin 79 – Hamilton 65
Colby vs. Middlebury, Middlebury VT, 7:00 pm
After Colby got out to a hot 10-1 start, they have now dropped to 13-7 due to their 1-5 conference performance. However, this record is a bit deceiving because aside from getting blown out by Tufts, their other conference losses are by margins of just four, nine, two and three. Additionally, Colby beat Amherst by two up in Waterville this past weekend. Meanwhile, Middlebury is 4-2 in conference with no win by a difference of more than 10 points and a total differential of just three points in their conference losses to Conn College and Hamilton. I like Middlebury in this one because of their ability to win close contests, but I would not at all be surprised if Colby pulled out the W. Look for Matt St. Amour ’17 to carry the Panthers to victory.
Prediction: Colby 74 – Middlebury 77
Amherst vs. Bates, Lewiston, ME, 7:00 pm
At face value, this looks like the easiest matchup of the day to predict, but then again, I never would have picked Colby to beat Amherst a couple weeks ago. However, in that game, Amherst shot a measly 33.3% from the field, 26.5% from deep, and a dreadful 52.9% from the free throw line. I don’t see any way that Amherst shoots that poorly again, and they proved that last weekend by shooting 50.9% from the field against Trinity’s usually stifling defense. For Bates to win this one, they are going to need to shoot the lights out, something they have not done consistently in NESCAC play.
Prediction: Amherst 84 – Bates 64
Williams vs. Wesleyan, Middletown, CT, 7:00 pm
Williams and Wesleyan are sitting at just about the same spot in the NESCAC standings right now, but Wesleyan is definitely higher in the power rankings considering they’ve reeled off three straight conference wins against Tufts, Bates and Conn College. This is a huge chance for Williams to make a jump in the standings, and with tough games against Conn College and Tufts coming up, they will have a tough task if they want to grab home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. If Dan Aronowitz ’17 doesn’t have a huge game, the Ephs are in trouble. I’m expecting Joseph Kuo ’17 and Rashid Epps ’16 to dominate the paint and lead the Cardinals to victory.
Prediction: Williams 68 – Wesleyan 79
Game of the Night
Trinity vs. Tufts, Medford, MA, 7:00 pm
This tilt is the game of the week, however, if Tufts wins, the game between Amherst and Tufts on Saturday could be the battle for first place in the NESCAC. Tufts and Trinity couldn’t be two more opposite teams. Trinity is a defensive powerhouse that leads the NESCAC in PPG allowed at just 68.0 PPG, while the Jumbos are an offensive juggernaut, leading the NESCAC with 87.4 PPG. On the flip side, Trinity scores just 76.5 PPG while Tufts gives up 73.3 PPG, which leads me to believe that this game is going to come down to Trinity’s ability to slow down the Tufts attack. There are two big matchups to focus on in this one:
1.) Tom Palleschi ’17 vs. Ed Ogundeko ’17 – these two big guys are two of the best in the conference. They average about the same number of PPG in conference games (14.7 and 14.5 respectively). Palleschi edges Ogundeko in blocks and Ogundeko tops Palleschi in rebounds. This should be a VERY enticing matchup.
2.) Vinny Pace ’18 vs. Shay Ajayi ‘16/Rick Naylor ’16
I’m honestly not sure who is going to guard Pace due to the matchup problems that the four-guard lineup of Tufts produces. The extra 25 pounds that Ajayi has on Pace could wear him down throughout the game, but I think that this will allow Stephen Haladyna ’16, a threat in the paint, to take advantage of his height advantage over Naylor. If Naylor takes the challenge, Pace’s height and length will allow him to shoot over Naylor with relative ease. I expect Trinity to throw multiple looks at Pace, but either way, he presents matchup problems.
At the end of the day, I don’t see Trinity being able to keep up with the scoring of Tufts unless Palleschi gets into foul trouble. If that happens, Trinity could definitely win this game. Otherwise, I think the Jumbos give themselves the opportunity to play Amherst for first place on Saturday.
Williams has to wait until tomorrow for their showdown against MIddlebury. (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)
Just about every game last night carried with it an exciting storyline. Wesleyan toppled a Top-25 team for the second game in a row. Trinity barely snuck by Colby, dropping the Mules to 0-4 in NESCAC play. Conn won again, and with three wins are probably just one more victory away from guaranteeing a playoff bid. Amherst took care of business versus Bowdoin – no matter how great Lucas Hausman ’16 is, the Polar Bears don’t have enough weapons to compete. Williams over Hamilton was the one game that went pretty much as expected and told us very little about either team. Today’s games carry just as much weight and intrigue.
Tufts at Conn College, 1:00 PM, New London, CT
Tufts and Conn are teams with identical records going in opposite directions, though to be fair they started at opposite ends of the spectrum. Tufts has now lost two OT games to Middlebury and Wesleyan, while Conn continues to win close game after close game. The Jumbos looked hectic in the OT period against Wesleyan, marking the second overtime period where Tufts fell apart at the seams. Vinny Pace ’18 on three occasions in the overtime found himself in the air with no idea where to pass it. Tom Palleschi ’17 missed an ugly three. And there was no coordination on offense as the seconds ticked away.
That being said, the Jumbos have all the talent in the world and will be tough to defend. On the opposite end, Conn PG Tyler Rowe ’19 has emerged as a future star. The matchup between him and Tarik Smith ’17 will be a great one. Still, when I look at every position in the lineup, the Jumbos seem to have the edge. Conn’s best chance will be to do some work in the frontcourt between Zuri Pavlin ’17 and Dan Janel ’17, because Tufts lacks frontcourt depth.
Prediction: Tufts 81 – Conn 78
Bates at Wesleyan, 3:00 PM, Middletown, CT
The Cards look to be figuring it out, but let’s not forget that one week ago they were coming off of a 26-point loss to Amherst and looked like a ship without a rudder. They have not fixed their biggest issue – three-point shooting. The Cardinals have made just 12 of their last 80 (15.0 percent) attempts dating back to that loss to Amherst, and 31 of their last 146 attempts (21.2 percent). Against Tufts last night Wesleyan shot 3-21 (14.3 percent) from three point land, 13-27 (48.1 percent) from the free throw line, and turned the ball over 22 times.
Yet somehow, the Cards won, and surprisingly it was by dominating the frontcourt. Joseph Kuo ’17 and Rashid Epps ’16 are known commodities, but Nathan Krill ’18 has started to play some important minutes. This year’s Wesleyan team is deep, a far cry from last year’s squad that ran only six deep. They’ve gone through a lot of growing pains, but I think they’re going to be better than last year’s team once they get through the kinks, and this game should be a comfortable win because Bates is not playing well right now.
Prediction: Wesleyan 75 – Bates 64
Trinity at Bowdoin, 3:00 PM, Brunswick, ME
The Bantams certainly don’t win pretty, but they do win as they escaped against Colby 62-60. Trinity will look to get the ball inside a lot today, something they failed to do last night finishing the night with just 8 free throws as a team. Frontcourt depth behind Shay Ajayi ’16 and Ed Ogundeko ’17 remains a concern. Primary backup Connor Merinder ’19 could really use a breakout game to get more confidence going down the stretch. Otherwise the Bantams are in danger of Ogundeko getting into foul trouble.
To stop the Bantams inside, Bowdoin needs a team effort, especially rebounding the ball. The Polar Bears sorely miss John Swords ’15 in that category, but they still should be doing a better job boxing out as a team. The individual offensive brilliance of Lucas Hausman ’16 and Jack Simonds ’19 had the Polar Bears up on Amherst. It’s possible that great performances from those two today are enough, but I think the Bantams defense is too stout.
Prediction: Trinity 73 – Bowdoin 67
Amherst at Colby, 3:00 PM, Waterville, ME
The good news for Colby is that Patrick Stewart ’16 played 31 minutes last night and Chris Hudnut ’16 returned in limited action to score 8 points. The bad news is they need a massive upset to avoid an 0-5 conference start. Ryan Jann ’16 had an off night against the Bantams going 0-7 from the field, and the Mules need him to make tough shots. Colby is getting healthy, but they might not be getting there fast enough to help today.
Connor Green ’16 looked like his old self scoring 27 points against Bowdoin. Amherst in the second half was sending three guys to crash the offensive boards, and the leaping ability of guys like Green and Michael Riopel ’18 made a difference. Whatever Amherst found in the second half last night needs to carry over to today. An engaged and aggressive Amherst team is a terror for the rest of the league because of the athleticism and size the roster has. Barring Colby hitting everything from three today, Amherst gets the job done.
Prediction: Amherst 82 – Colby 71
Williams at Middlebury, Sunday 3:00 PM, Middlebury, VT
This is the only game this weekend besides Tufts vs. Conn College that features two above .500 teams in conference. The Ephs are now riding a three game winning streak, but the three games all came at home against Hamilton, Bowdoin, and Colby. Those three have a combined conference record of 1-12. The scores of those game are also remarkable similar: 75-66 over Colby, 76-65 over Bowdoin, and 73-63 over Hamilton. The other constant in those games was Dan Aronowitz ’17, who averaged 21.0 PPG and 10.3 RPG over the three game stretch. Aronowitz is much more of a threat from three this season, and the Panthers need to keep an eye on him at all times.
Middlebury won’t have played in over a week when they take the court tomorrow, and that time off has given them plenty of time to get ready for the Ephs. The Panthers strength recently has been great depth. Guys like Adisa Majors ’18 and Bryan Jones ’17 have been coming off the bench and giving an instant lift to the team. Their depth helps to keep the Panthers fresh since they are constantly pushing the ball up the court. Williams has the discipline and personnel to counter that transition offense, however. Sometimes basketball is just about who hits shots and who misses them, and if that is the case in this one then I like Williams in a squeaker.
Amherst Coach Dave Hixon shouldn’t look so worried. The Lord Jeffs haven’t moved from the top of the ranks. (Courtesy of Mark Box/Clarus Studios)
As always, college basketball, and particularly the Little Ivies, will enjoy a number of upsets throughout the season and well into the playoffs, but in the NESCAC this season it’s hard to even know what to consider an upset. Amherst and Tufts seem to have separated themselves from the pack in the early going, and Hamilton has a long way to go to climb out of the cellar, but otherwise it appears that any team could win against anyone on any given day. Spots 3-10 in these rankings are especially close, and will probably look completely different next week.
1. Amherst (11-1, 2-0, Last week: 1)
The Lord Jeffs sit at No. 9 in the D3hoops.com national rankings. Thus far they have been outstanding, leading the league with 88.6 ppg while shooting 48.8 percent and have been able to hold teams to a respectable 72.0 ppg. They are atop the leaderboard of the NESCAC Conference, and remain the front runner to win the NESCAC tournament. Their only blunder so far came in a 79-69 loss to Rhodes College (Ky.), who are only .500 so far, but play a tough schedule. Look for Connor Green ’16 to continue to lead the charge with his 15.3 ppg. Swingman Jeff Racy ’17 is shooting 55.3 percent beyond the arc and supplying 14.6 ppg. Last year’s Rookie of the year, guard Johnny McCarthy ’18, is spending the most time on the hardwood and putting up 13.1 ppg.
2. Tufts (11-2, 2-0, Last week: 2)
After rolling over Bowdoin and Colby to open up NESCAC play last week, Tufts climbed the national ranks to No. 17 from No. 22 the week before. They have two losses, coming against a very good MIT team and 12th-ranked WPI. Vinny Pace ’18 continues to power their offense averaging 19.2 ppg. Though still a very young team, they seem unfazed and stick to their fast-paced offense with the lone big man, Tom Palleschi ’17, doing the dirty work down low with 48 blocks on the season. Tufts ranks second in the league in scoring with 86.1 ppg and their starting five all average at least 10.0 ppg. They get to the line more than any NESCAC team and they hit their free throws, sitting atop the ‘CAC at 77.2 percent from the stripe. Tufts will take on Middlebury tonight and Hamilton tomorrow, two games that the Jumbos should win; and two wins that would push their winning streak to 10 games.
3. Wesleyan (12-2, 1-1, Last week: 3)
Their first NESCAC game was a loss to Middlebury, a team that just seems to have the Cardinals’ number. Wesleyan will be put to the test tonight as they travel to western Massachusetts to take on Amherst and then head to Hartford for a game with Trinity tomorrow. Point guard BJ Davis ’16, who has averaged 19.0 ppg, will need to be on if they want to take down the No. 9 team in the nation. Wesleyan will have two chances to down the Jeffs, as they will host Amherst on Monday, but only tonight’s game will count towards the conference standings. Aside from the loss to Middlebury, the Cards were able to fend off Hamilton with an overtime victory and took down Williams in a scrappy non-conference game. Wesleyan plays good defense, keeping teams to 67.8 ppg, second best in the NESCAC. Joseph Kuo ’17 is the man holding it together down low for the Cards scoring 12.1 ppg and pulling in 109 rebounds this season. It is tough to say where Wesleyan will end up this year, but they should certainly be in the playoffs, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them fighting for a top-four seed as the season wraps up.
4. Trinity (9-4, 1-0, Last week: 8)
Don’t sleep on the Bantams. What’s that old saying? Oh yeah, Defense Wins Championships. The Bantams lead the pack when it comes to defensive statistics – number one in scoring defense (64.7 ppg allowed) and rebounding margin (+10.8). Though they stand at 9-4 on the season with a few weak losses, they opened up NESCAC play with a big one-point victory over Williams. Coach James Cosgrove implements fundamental basketball, and Trinity will grind with the good teams. As 2015 First Team All-NESCAC guard Jaquann Starks ’16 and the Trinity shooters heat up for the long haul of NESCAC games and the playoffs, the Bantams should be in fine shape. Eric Gendron ’18 is leading the league in three point percentage at 59.3 percent. With a frontcourt of Ed Ogundek0 ’17 and Shay Ajayi ’16 that is combining for 26.0 ppg and 19.0 rpg and point man Andrew Hurd ’16 commandeering the floor and leading the league in assists, everything is in place for another wild playoff run.
5. Connecticut College (10-3, 2-0, Last week: 9)
Not taking anything away from their 2-0 NESCAC record, but I will need to see them compete against big dogs of the NESCAC before they can crack the top four. They won close games vs. Hamilton and Middlebury, two very questionable teams this year. Ten wins at this stage is almost unheard of for the Camels, but they will need to continue the hot streak against a gritty Trinity team tonight in Hartford. Look for guards Lee Messier ’18 and Tyler Rowe ’19 to be the point scorers as they have combined for 27.0 ppg thus far this season. Messier can be lethal with his 40.2 percent mark beyond the arc. Conn is a consistent offensive team averaging 82.2 ppg, but their defense will likely not hold up against the bigger and better NESCAC teams. The Camels are last in the league in scoring defense with 76.5 ppg allowed and rebounding margin (+1.3).
6. Williams (9-5, 0-2, Last week: 5)
The Ephs definitely got the toughest opening weekend schedule, traveling to Amherst on Friday and Trinity on Sunday. They lost a heartbreaker to the Bantams, but they competed well given their youth. There are a lot of games still to play. Rookie forward Kyle Scadlock ’19 has been efficient, ranking eighth in the league in field goal percentage, while the Dan Aronowitz ’17 is averaging 16.7 ppg. They are not getting the productivity they would like out of 6’10″ center Edward Flynn ’16, though, who has only been able to pull in 4.9 rbg, which is a glaring hole when one considers the front courts of the league’s best teams. Though their 0-2 conference record doesn’t show it at this point, Williams could be a sleeper pick come playoff time. They to Wesleyan and Trinity by two points or less, so they will be desperate for redemption come playoff time.
7. Bates (8-6, 1-1, Last week: 7)
Bates has played a very tough schedule, but it is fair to say that they are struggling this season. Despite the size of the Delpeche twins, the Bobcats are 10th in the NESCAC in scoring defense. This will prove to be a detriment as the NESCAC season unravels. Mike Boornazian ’16 is the ringleader for the Bobcats posting 15.5 ppg with 2.8 apg, while Shawn Strickland ’18 supplies 3.6 apg and shoots 42.4 percent from three-point land. With a 1-1 NESCAC record going into tonight’s game against Hamilton, I believe Bates has the upperhand, but the Continentals are not to be taken lightly. Bates should be in the playoffs this season, but they are fiddling with the fringe.
8. Bowdoin (8-4, 1-1, Last week: 6)
Bowdoin stands at 1-1 in the NESCAC with an embarrassing loss to Tufts. The Polar Bears have Friday and Saturday off and will travel to Williams on Sunday. Thanks to the way the NESCAC schedule rotates and a postponed game last Tuesday, Bowdoin is in the midst of a 12-day stretch in which they will play just one game (unless the game with Maine-Presque Isle can be rescheduled in that time). Does that rest give Bowdoin the advantage, or will rust hurt them against the Ephs? They will then take on Amherst, Trinity and Colby who they lost to on December 5. Bowdoin has a good all-around team, but they have generally been taken advantage of on the boards. Bowdoin will be outgunned when they have to face real centers and big athletic forwards. Bowdoin does shoot well though, and Lucas Hausman ’16 leads the league (by a lot) with 25.0 ppg, with Jack Simonds ’19 backing him up and averaging 14.8 ppg.
9. Colby (10-3, 0-2, Last week: 4)
Colby looked great coming into last weekend, but will need to earn their stripes in NESCAC action. They did beat Bowdoin and Bates in early December, but those were non-conference games, and Bates got redemption by beating Colby when it mattered. Colby will travel to Massachusetts to challenge a tough Ephs team tonight. The road doesn’t get much easier as they will then have to take on Trinity and Amherst on back-to-back nights, which could make for a chilling weekend in Waterville, Maine as they could potentially fall to 0-5 in NESCAC play. The Mules will be a fringe playoff team this year, and could easily not make the NESCAC tournament. A week ago we were talking about Colby as a potential top-four seed, and now a cold spell could drop them into a battle for a spot in the playoff field. Their weakness, defense, is well-documented, and needs to get fixed if Colby is going to meet their own expectations this year.
10. Middlebury (7-7, 1-1, Last week: 11)
Middlebury earned a great win at Wesleyan to open up their conference schedule, then lost by one point to Conn College the following day. A team with the worst free throw percentage in the league will certainly have trouble down the stretch, and close games like their loss to Conn College could be marked as W’s if they can just figure out their issues from the stripe. Despite their free throw percentage, the Panthers have a very good defense holding teams to 70.8 ppg. Center Matt Daley ’16 leads the team with 8.7 rbg, which has lead to the team’s second-best +8.4 rebounding margin. Matt St. Amour ’17 leads the team with 19.1 ppg, while Daley averages 12.1. These two will need to have impactful games to take down Tufts tonight. The big question is how the heck they are going to stop Palleschi and Pace.
11. Hamilton (7-6, 0-2, Last week: 10)
Hamilton has a very young, inexperienced squad this season with just two seniors. Unsatisfied with being the runt of the NESCAC, Hamilton fought hard in their opening NESCAC games, forcing Wesleyan into overtime to eventually fall by six points and losing to Conn College by just four points. They have a foreseeable win tonight against Bates. Hamilton is just barely outscoring its opponents 71.8 ppg to 71.2 ppg. That does not translate to a good performance against tougher NESCAC teams. Point guard Jack Dwyer ’18 will give Hamilton an opportunity to win averaging while 5.2 apg. Peter Hoffmann ’19 ranks 13th in scoring this season and has made an immediate impact. There is a bright future in Hamilton, even if things aren’t looking to promising in 2015-16.
Connor Green ’16 and the Lord Jeffs are at the top of the ranks. What else is new? (Mark Box, Clarus Studios, Inc.)
There are a lot of teams in the NESCAC that have performed very well so far this year, but everything changes once conference play begins. Will Amherst continue playing to their potential? Is Colby a real threat to go deep in the tournament? Is Tufts’ fast pace sustainable? Check out the initial power rankings to get a closer look at how each NESCAC team has done so far this year.
1. Amherst (10-1)
Coming into the year, Amherst was a clear favorite to win the NESCAC. They lost next to nothing from last year’s roster, and their younger players such as Jayde Dawson ’18, Michael Riopel ’18, and reigning NESCAC ROY Jonny McCarthy ’18 all gained valuable experience that has already provided dividends here early in the season. Amherst has played some low-talent teams this year, but what’s important is that they’ve beaten these teams in convincing fashion. Amherst has also played some very solid teams – Babson, Eastern Connecticut and Rust – and has showed that they can, in fact, win close games. In their one loss this season, to Rhodes College, Amherst shot just 6-11 from the free throw line. Additionally, McCarthy and Connor Green ’16 combined to shoot just 11-32 from the field, 3-15 from beyond the arc, and attempted zero free throws. Though Amherst has a deep bench, the Lord Jeffs can’t rely on the bench to carry the scoring load. McCarthy and Green can’t keep missing 12 threes a game between them and expect to win in conference play. Regardless, I expect that this will just be a blip on the radar and the Lord Jeffs will get back up to speed when they open up NESCAC action in Amherst tonight against their bitter rival, Williams.
2. Tufts (9-2)
Last year, Tufts was 4-7 when they faced off with Middlebury in their first conference game. With a new and improved offense, and a much more mature team, Tufts stands at 9-2 and is ranked #22 nationally as they prepare to host Bowdoin tonight. Their new run-and-gun offense has propelled their scoring average from a NESCAC-low 67.6 ppg last year to 84.1 ppg this year. Last year, Tufts was 10th in the NESCAC in free throws made per game and ninth in free throw attempts per game, but this year they are first in both categories, averaging 21.7 points from the line per game! The Jumbos are winning games against strong teams by putting pressure on their opponents. They gang rebound on defense and then push the ball up the court. On the other end, they crash the boards hard, pulling down 13.3 offensive rebounds per game. Obviously, Tom Palleschi ’17 is leading the team in rebounds, but it has been Vinny Pace ’18 that has anchored the offense this year. It seems that Palleschi is fine with his decreased scoring role, however. He has instead focused more on his defense, shown by his leap from 2.4 bpg to 4.2 bpg. The key for the Jumbos this year has been balance. They use a lot of guys in the rotation, and, so far, this has led to success for them. As long as they can stay in control at such a fast pace, I’m anticipating more success with this style against conference opponents.
3. Wesleyan (11-1)
Wesleyan heads up to Middlebury tonight riding an 11-game winning streak, and over 12 games they have allowed just 65.6 ppg, which ranks third in the NESCAC. The Cardinals have built this impressive record with their stifling defense, which causes havoc for opposing ball handlers and forces turnovers. Wesleyan leads the conference with 7.9 spg, allowing for easy run outs. Though Coach Joe Reilly’s team has struggled with turnovers a bit themselves, they are also forcing their opponents into taking bad shots, which is why they’ve had so much success. On the offensive side of the ball, BJ Davis ’16 has stepped up his game immensely this year, and is scoring nearly eight points per game more than he did last year. In some ways, this could be worrisome for the Cardinals; though it’s great that Davis has been such an effective scorer this year, the team as a whole is depending on him to put up his 19.1 ppg, as Joseph Kuo ’17 is the only other Cardinal averaging over 10.0 ppg. I’m anticipating that Davis’ numbers will drop in conference play, opening the door for other players to step up and continue Wesleyan’s hot start.
4. Colby (10-1)
After starting off the season with a 98-92 overtime loss to Staten Island, the Mules have reeled off 10 straight wins, two of which came in back-to-back games against Bowdoin and Bates. However, besides those two victories, none are very impressive. Regardless, 10-1 is nice, and we will see if Colby is as good as they look when they have a rematch against Bates tonight and then head down to Somerville to take on Tufts tomorrow. Colby’s success thus far has come through their five senior starters, particularly center Chris Hudnut ’16 and forward Ryan Jann ’16, who average 16.6 and 17.3 ppg, respectively. The reason these players are able to score so consistently stems from Colby’s team-first approach. Every player on the team is looking to make the extra pass, and each of the five starters records at least two assists per game. Colby’s 19.2 apg leads to open shots, which is why Colby is currently second in the NESCAC in scoring. If Colby can continue to share the ball so effectively, it will be a tough task to take them down.
5. Williams (8-3)
The most remarkable part of the 8-3 record the Ephs have posted so far is the youth that this teams rolls out there day in and day out. Of the seven players with appearances in every one of Williams’ games this season, four are freshmen. Though the Ephs are definitely led by Daniel Aronowitz ’17, Kyle Scadlock ’19 has made a big splash so far this year, exemplified by his 12.4 ppg and 6.7 rpg numbers. I think that the best showing that Williams has had this year is in their two-point loss to Wesleyan. Though Wesleyan did miss 14 free throws in that game, Williams showed they could play defense against a legitimate NESCAC title contender, allowing only 58 points in the game. In the same game, Aronowitz stepped up big-time, scoring 27 of his team’s 56 points. If Aronowitz can continue to hold down the fort for a bit, I think Scadlock’s fellow freshmen will become more comfortable, making Williams a dangerous team as the season progresses.
6. Bowdoin (7-3)
As expected, Lucas Hausman ’16 is off to a hot start for the Polars bears. Through 10 games, Hausman is averaging 24.7 ppg, highlighted most recently by his 35-point performance against Bridgewater State. Since an out-of-conference loss to Colby a month ago, Bowdoin has won four straight, and look to continue that streak tonight against Tufts. As we enter NESCAC play, a huge part of Bowdoin’s success will lie in the hands of Jack Simonds ’19, who has put on quite a show in his bid for NESCAC ROY so far. As a forward who relies on his perimeter shooting, Simonds will be tested in a conference where there are very few teams that play two natural big men. Against Tufts, for example, it’s likely that Simonds will be defended by Vinny Pace and Stefan Duvivier ’18, both of whom are long and athletic, which will make it difficult for Simonds to get his shots off from deep. However, if Tufts or other NESCAC opponents focus primarily on shutting down Hausman, Simonds will have opportunities to launch from deep and will the Polar Bears to victory.
7. Bates (7-5)
Five losses in 12 games is not great, but minus a stretch of three losses in December, Bates has been pretty solid so far this year. Even in those three losses, the Bobcats played pretty well, losing by four each to Colby (in overtime) and Southern Vermont, and by just seven to WPI. Those three teams are all very solid squads, so Bates should not be disappointed with these losses. What is a bit worrisome, however, is allowing triple digits in their other two losses, but luckily for Bates, those two games seem to be anomalies. In wins this year, the Bobcats have been able to keep opponents to just 65.0 ppg, in large part due to the imposing presence of the twin towers down low, Marcus Delpeche ’17 and Malcolm Delpeche ’17. On the offensive end, Mike Boornazian ’16 leads the way with 15.6 ppg. An encouraging sign for Bates is that Boornazian put up 23 points and seven rebounds against Colby, showing that he will indeed be the primary scorer once conference play rolls around. Regardless, what Bates needs out of Boornazian and the Delpeche brothers is consistency, because they really don’t have any other major scoring threats besides those three guys.
8. Trinity (8-4)
It’s pretty easy to look at Trinity’s losses and think that they are getting snubbed with a #8 nod here, but take a closer look. Sure, they’ve lost to solid teams, but do they have any good wins? Not yet. Trinity has not won a game by single digits, and that’s because they have not been able to beat any the good teams on their schedule. The Bantams started the year ranked 12th in the nation, and have since fallen out of the ranks because they have not shown the ability to win a close game. Against Eastern Connecticut, for example, the Bantams we’re actually up by six at the half, but went on to shoot 26.5 percent from the field in the second half and ended up losing by eight. Against Springfield, Trinity turned the ball over 10 times in the first half alone. It has been a trend in all their losses that Trinity has struggled to put together 40 minutes of good basketball. Nonetheless, I have faith that Jaquann Starks ’16, Ed Ogundeko ’17 and Shay Ajayi ’16 can help turn around the Bantams in the second half. Trinity has played good defense all year, so if they can turn things around on offense they’re still in fine position to finish in one of the top four spots in the NESCAC.
9. Connecticut College (7-3)
Conn College has showed a little life this year due to the play of freshmen David Labossiere ’19 and Tyler Rowe ’19. Both players have stepped in and made a huge impact so far, complementing the continued success of sharpshooter Lee Messier ’18 and big man Zuri Pavlin ’17. Rowe, a natural point guard, has done a great job attacking the paint, knowing when to shoot and when to dish. Labossiere, arguably the most athletic freshmen in the NESCAC, rebounds decently well and knows how to finish around the rim. As the Camels face off against NESCAC teams we will learn whether or not these promising young players have made the Camels a competitor in the NESCAC as their three-point loss to a solid SUNY-Canton team suggests. I think that the answer to that question is going to come down to whether or not Conn can slow down their opponents in shooting the basketball, as they currently allow opposing teams to shoot 42.5 percent from the field, the second-worst mark in the league.
10. Hamilton (7-4)
Hamilton, like Williams and Connecticut College, is a team that has been powered primarily by their freshmen so far this year. Peter Hoffmann ’19 has been the main bright spot so far for the Continentals, a freshman star who has stepped in and filled the hole left by the departure of Joseph Lin ’15. The freshman guard is averaging 13.5 ppg through 11 contests this year, and is doing most of his damage inside. While Hoffmann can step out and hit the three here and there, he has a knack for getting to the hoop, and as a result, gets to the free throw line every game. Another freshman bright spot has been Andrew Groll ’19. Groll isn’t a natural scorer, but he is pulling down 7.1 rpg. I think the early season success can be attributed to Hamilton’s players working together and accepting their individual roles on the team. Though they are last in the league in assists, there is no one player that does the majority of the scoring – eight guys are piled in the 3-10 point range, and just two, Hoffmann and Jack Dwyer ’18, are averaging double digits. I am not expecting a lot out of Hamilton in league player this year, but in the next couple years I expect them surge onto the scene as their young core matures.
11. Middlebury (6-6)
The Panthers are off to a tough start, and their mediocre offense is mostly to blame. Middlebury is having trouble winning games primarily because of two main factors: three-point shooting and free throw shooting. Middlebury is ranked second-worst in the NESCAC in made three-point field goals per game with just six. They’re also ranked 10th in made free throws per game, where they hit just 58.6 percent. With such low numbers at the charity stripe, especially in combination with such a lack of outside shooting ability, Middlebury’s only chance is to play absolutely stellar defense because you can’t expect them to shoot that much higher than the 45.5 percent mark that they’re hitting shots at. To their credit, Middlebury has done a solid job on the defensive end of the court. They’re forcing turnovers and difficult shots out of their opponents, but their lack of offense is ultimately the Achilles heel for the Panthers. Matt St. Amour ’17, Jake Brown ’17 and Matt Daley ’16 have done what they can to put the ball in the hoop, but they don’t really have anybody else who can score the ball. Middlebury is in the midst of a rebuilding period, and I don’t anticipate them making a playoff appearance this year.
Like the rest of us, Bates Head Coach Jon Furbush is sick of this nonsense. Let’s play some NESCAC basketball. (Phyllis Graber Jensen/Bates College)
Through about one month of the season (factoring in the time off for the holidays) NESCAC teams are a combined 87-33. Ten of 11 teams have records over .500. No teams remain undefeated, but Amherst, Wesleyan and, surprisingly, Colby all only have one loss. Babson, a Final Four team a year ago that took out Trinity in the Elite Eight and brought back Player of the Year candidate Joey Flannery, is 7-4, with all four of those losses coming against NESCAC teams. Amherst is ranked ninth and Tufts 22nd, with Trinity, Colby and Wesleyan knocking on the Top 25 door.
Suffice to say it’s been a successful start to the year for the NESCAC, all things considered. Because of the location of some of the member schools (read: Middlebury, Bates, Bowdoin, Colby and Hamilton, especially), NESCAC teams often face weak schedules to open the season because there just aren’t many quality teams around. That’s why it’s critical for teams to find good competition in tournaments early on. Trinity lost by five to No. 11 Susquehanna on Dec. 11 in Pennsylvania. No. 12 WPI has already bested Tufts and Bates this year. Wisconsin-Stevens Point walked all over Hamilton in Arizona on Dec. 30, and No. 20 Oswego St. handled Middlebury back in November. Colby actually beat No. 18 Mount Union down in Orlando last week. And lest we forget, the NESCAC’s success against Babson has knocked the Bobcats out of the Top 25. Win or lose, the teams that have seen this high level of competition will benefit this weekend when the intensity turns up and there are no more easy games.
Below we will give you a brief preview of each matchup (mind you, that’s 10 games, so forgive our brevity), the player or matchup to watch and a prediction. I’m supremely confident that most of our predictions will prove to look foolish this time Monday morning.
Middlebury at Wesleyan, Friday 7 PM
This is a really tough opening game for the Panthers, but if they match up well against any of the top teams in the NESCAC, it’s definitely Wesleyan, and they catch the Birds early on when they’re still nursing a few battle scars. Middlebury crushed Wesleyan 97-60 last year, and Wesleyan’s roster is basically the same, though the Panthers have lost their two best scorers. The matchup to watch is between point guards BJ Davis ’16 and Jake Brown ’17. Talk about quickness and flair, this duo has it in spades. Both teams are guard-heavy, so that’s likely to be a wash. If either front court can take over offensively, that unit’s team will win the ball game. Despite Middlebury’s struggles, their defense is underrated, so expect this to stay tight throughout.
Prediction: Wesleyan 68 – Middlebury 61
Hamilton at Conn College, Friday 7 PM
A matchup of two teams struggling to make the playoffs consistently, this is basically a must-win if either squad hopes to achieve that goal. Hamilton has been impressive early on with some talented young players, but the same could be said for Colby. We talked about three of those guys (and gave an honorable mention to another) on Wednesday. Conn’s Zuri Pavlin ’17 has been one of my favorite players to follow the past two seasons because he’s a double-double machine, but his numbers are down a little bit this year, and Hamilton has a rebounding fiend of its own in Andrew Groll ’19 than can neutralize Pavlin’s impact on the boards. Outside of Pavlin, Conn does not rebound well. Neither team is particularly strong defensively, but Conn has a little more juice on the offensive end right now, so I think they’ll eventually pull away. Plus, being at home, especially this early in the year when teams aren’t used to weekend travel, could be a bonus.
Prediction: Conn 82 – Hamilton 72
Bowdoin at Tufts, Friday 7 PM
Prior to the season, I would have guessed this would be a blow out. Now, however, with the emergence of Jack Simonds ’19, Bowdoin has a legitimate 1-2 punch, and I’m not sure anyone can stop it. On the flip side, I am pretty certain no one at Bowdoin can stop Tom Palleschi ’17. Palleschi is the man to watch. The Polar Bears will need to throw some double teams at the lefty, but in their favor is the fact that they can roll out a few forwards to slow him down, while there is very little front court relief for Palleschi. and if he stays out of foul trouble (a big if), this is going to be a comfortable, though not easy, win for the Jumbos. I have no numbers to prove this (perhaps we will compile some at some point – any stat nerds out there with some free time?) but I believe that if we had strength of schedule numbers Tufts would be near the top of the list. For the last two years they’ve been 13-12 and just some chemistry or flow or voodoo away from being really, really good. Maybe this is the year.
Prediction: Tufts 78 – Bowdoin 72
Colby at Bates, Friday 7 PM
The Mules’ MO this season is score the basketball, and they’ve done that quite well. They can shoot the three (39.9 percent), get to the line (282 FT attempts, second in NESCAC) or just throw it into big man Chris Hudnut ’16 (16.6 ppg). Even though we expected Bates to present a unique problem on defense for its opponents with the Delpeche twins in the middle, teams have been scoring at a pretty rapid clip against the Bobcats (72.1 ppg, 42.4 FG%). That could result in a recipe for disaster for Bates tonight. Colby SG Ryan Jann ’16 is the man in this one. I don’t see anyone that can stop him from Bates, and he had a cool 19 points on 6-9 shooting in their last meeting, when Colby won just 78-74 in Waterville, but the Mules also shot well below their season averages. If they can play to their potential, Colby wins this one.
Prediction: Colby 80 – Bates 70
Williams at Amherst, Friday 7 PM
When these two teams meet there is always an added level of intrigue. All-time, Williams holds the 119-97 (55.1%) advantage over Amherst, though recent history has favored the Lord Jeffs. Between 2012 and the 2014 NESCAC Championship, Amherst won eight straight contests. Miraculously, Williams broke the streak in that year’s NCAA Semis, then won again in the teams’ first meeting of 2015. Amherst won the last contest 86-76 in OT. Amherst is definitely the favorite coming into this one, as they will be in ever game unless someone knocks them off. They have far more experience, and as we’ve noted before, the 2015-16 Williams squad is similar in make up to the 2014-15 Amherst team. Dan Aronowitz ’17 plays the role of Connor Green ’16, leading a talented squad deficient of seniors. Simply put, Amherst has the advantage at every position, so a big game from young point guards Chris Galvin ’18 and Bobby Casey ’19 who have had to take over for the oversized production of the injured Mike Greenman ’17. Unless those guys have huge games, it’s going to be over early.
Prediction: Amherst 85 – Williams 73
Colby at Tufts, Saturday 2 PM
Saturday begins with an exciting matchup of two teams trying to prove that they belong. Both could be 1-0 coming in, but don’t surprised if they are both 0-1. That’s the beauty of NESCAC basketball. This should be a fun one to watch as both teams know how to put the ball in the hoop, ranking second (Colby) and third (Tufts) behind Amherst in points per game. In the second game of a back-to-back, the bench becomes more important, so which role player can step up and make the difference will be a difference-maker. Tufts goes a little bit deeper in its rotation, and a guy like Drew Madsen ’17 might need to chip in 10 points or so for the Jumbos. Palleschi is going to be working his butt off as the focal point of the Tufts attack against Bowdoin, and either fatigue or foul trouble could force him to the bench for stretches in this one.
Prediction: Tufts 89 – Colby 87
Hamilton at Wesleyan, Saturday 3 PM
This seems like a slam dunk for the Cards … and I think it probably is. Crazier things have happened, but I don’t see anyone stopping BJ Davis, and I doubt that the Continentals will be really sharp in their second game of the weekend because of their youth and inexperience. The X-factor for Hamilton still has to be Ajani Santos ’16. Santos has been a staple on this team for the past few years, last season averaging 10.5 ppg and 5.6 rpg while starting 23 games. This year he has 1.6 – just 1.6 – ppg and is only on the floor for 13.5 minutes per game. Coach Adam Stockwell wouldn’t reveal what the issue was, but there’s clearly something going on here. Santos has been in the starting lineup the last few games, though, so maybe things are finally coming around. Joseph Kuo ’17 is a strong interior presence for the Cardinals, but as we know their team strength is guard play and the bench doesn’t run very deep, so a coming out party from Santos could swing the tide of what is otherwise bound to be a lopsided affair.
Prediction: Wesleyan 69 – Hamilton 59
Middlebury at Conn College, Saturday 3 PM
A couple of years ago, this game would have been a cake walk for the Panthers. Now, it’s hard to even pick them as a favorite. Conn is still untested, but they have some interesting pieces. Zuri Pavlin is a known commodity, even though his numbers are down so far this year, and Lee Messier ’18 is taking the expected step forward and turning into a go-to scorer, but newcomers Tyler Rowe ’19 and David Labossiere ’19 look like the real deal, too. Forward Isaiah Robinson ’18 missed the first few games of the year, played the next six and then missed the last contest with the Coast Guard, but he’s a solid body that can bang down low and bring toughness, and don’t forget about Bo McKinley ’16, the incumbent at point guard, surpassed by Rowe, who brings three-point shooting off the bench. Conn has all the pieces to pull a fast one on the Panthers. The key for Middlebury is point guard Jake Brown. Perhaps it’s unfair because I watched Joey Kizel ’14 run the show for two years, but my sense is that Brown needs to drive this team if they are going to make it back to the playoffs.
Prediction: Conn College 78 – Middlebury 73
Bowdoin at Bates, Saturday 3 PM
I’m predicting that Tom Palleschi and the Jumbos will be able to stifle the Polar Bears, but I think that Bowdoin will break out in a big way against Bates. Simply put, who is going to guard Lucas Hausman and Jack Simonds? Mike Boornazian is a great offensive player, but I’m not convinced he can stop Hausman, and Simonds is going to be an issue for either Mike Newton ’16 or Marcus Delpeche ’17, whomever Bates chooses to throw at him. The Bobcats don’t even get the benefit of the Alumni Gym crowd, as classes don’t begin again until Monday. It’s an unfortunate time to waste a home weekend for Bates, and I think Bowdoin can take advantage.
Prediction: Bowdoin 81 – Bates 71
Williams at Trinity, Sunday 2 PM
Finally, we get the NESCAC debut of Trinity, last year’s top regular season team. Even though the Bantams lost a few important players, there seemed to be enough holdovers in place for Trinity to stay near the top of the heap. The losses of defensive stalwart Hart Gliedman ’15, multi-talented forward Alex Conaway ’15 and center George Papadeas ’15 have hurt more than expected. As a team, Trinity is still playing strong defense, holding opponents to a mere 35.5 field goal percentage. They just can’t put the ball in the hoop. Starks and Rick Naylor ’16, in particular, need to shoot the ball better, but it could be a big game for Ed Ogundeko ’17. Long an enigma for his impressive rebounding rate in limited minutes, Ogundeko has made some strides offensively out of necessity. He’s a true center, something that is lacking from many NESCAC rosters, and if he can manhandle Williams’ Edward Flynn ’16 then Trinity can shake off the early season struggles and start the NESCAC sched 1-0.
PG BJ Davis ’16 has blow-by speed … just ask Jayde Dawson. (Courtesy of Rob Matson, Amherst College Office of Communications)
Editor’s Note: Things can be a little confusing now that the season is underway. Consider the rest of our previews as season predictions based off of a compilation of conversations with coaches and players and observations from the first couple of games. All statistics that appear next to players’ names are from the 2014-15 season.
After a whirlwind offseason spent hosting SNL, flirting with starlets and just generally enjoying the incredible international recognition that stems from winning the NESCAC championship, Wesleyan has come back down to earth and is ready to compete for the top prize again. The Cardinals used a balanced attack to overcome a rough start to league play last year (Middlebury made them look like my JV middle school squad last season in Week 2 of the NESCAC schedule) to beat top teams Trinity and Amherst on their way to the championship. Four Cardinals averaged more than 10 points per game last season; guards BJ Davis ’16, Harry Rafferty ’15 and Jack Mackey ’16, as well as forward Joseph Kuo ’15.
And therein lies the strength of Wesleyan’s 2015-2016 unit; every single one of those players is back. This “core four” gives Wesleyan a surplus of experience, something that is rare in the youth-driven NESCAC. However, many of the teams that Wesleyan beat last season have retooled significantly in the offseason. Williams is 3-0 this season, with the best freshman class in the league already paying dividends. Wesleyan’s finals opponent, Amherst, is loaded, with players like Johnny McCarthy ’18 (the hype train keeps on rolling) who were a little raw last year stepping up in a big way. Wesleyan returns most of their talent from last year, but they are in danger of the league growing up around them while they stay rooted in one spot.
2014-2015 Record:
19-9 overall; 5-5 NESCAC (t-4th); won NESCAC Championship over Amherst 74-70 in OT; lost to Skidmore 81-66 in the first round of the NCCA Tournament
Head Coach: Joe Reilly, 8th season, 90-84 (.517)
Returning Starters: Six
G BJ Davis (11.5 ppg, 3.5 apg, .385% 3PT) G Harry Rafferty (10.5 ppg, 2.8 rpg .379% 3PT) G Jack Mackey (11.6 ppg, 4.2 rpg, .381% 3PT) F Joseph Kuo (11.9 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 1.5 bpg) F Rashid Epps (7.9 ppg, 6.7 rpg, .593% FG) F Joe Edmonds (9.0 ppg, 3.5 rpg, .441% 3PT)
All of the above players started at least 17 games last season. As you can see from these numbers, Wesleyan’s hallmark in 2014-2015 was a balanced scoring attack with a healthy dose of three-point shooting from dangerous three guard lineups. However, their most deadly three-point shooter from last season, Joe Edmonds ’16 at 41 percent, has been out for most of the preseason with a foot injury and has yet to get back on the court. Additionally, the consistently dangerous Jack Mackey has been struggling to overcome a variety of injuries. He’s played good minutes so far, but come off the bench in two of the Cards’ three games and is struggling shooting the ball at just 5-23 overall and 3-17 from three. This has led to a shakeup in the experience-laden Cardinals’ starting five.
Projected Starting Lineup:
PG BJ Davis (11.5 ppg, 3.5 apg, .385% 3PT)
With Edmonds and his scoring touch gone for greener pastures and Mackey struggling mightily, BJ Davis becomes even more crucial to the Cardinals’ success. Davis is playing a ridiculous 35.3 mpg early on. One of the most talented and athletic guards in the league (if you get the chance, try to find his tip slam against Middlebury on YouTube. Oofta), he was excellent last season at playing within the system. However, this season he will have a longer leash, and it could be very exciting watch him explore his new freedom.
SG Harry Rafferty (10.5 ppg, 2.8 rpg .379% 3PT)
Rafferty was a breakout star last year for the Cardinals, emerging in his sophomore season as a consistent scoring threat and excellent perimeter defender. He stays within himself beautifully, as the entire Wesleyan team does, and will be a crucial cog in Wesleyan’s machine this year. In their first three games he has upped his scoring to 12.7 points per game, and has six steals already on the season.
SF PJ Reed ’16 (2.9 ppg, 2.0 rpg, .311% FG)
A junior who played very sparingly last season, Reed has stepped into the starting lineup due to the struggles and health of Jack Mackey. However, Mackey has continued to play heavy minutes off the bench while Reed is simply a placeholder. This is a spot in Wesleyan’s starting lineup that will need to be resolved for them to compete in the top tier of NESCAC this season. I would expect Mackey to figure it out once he is fully healthy and return to the starting lineup, with Edmonds rotating with him once he recovers from his own injury, but if he doesn’t, Reed has good size at 6’5” and could see heavier playing time as the year goes on. Additionally, Wesleyan has one of the top freshman guard recruits in the league in Salim Greene ’19, who will press both of those players for playing time once he recovers from a concussion suffered in the preseason (it seems like Wesleyan should be a little more subdued in their preseason intensity.)
PF Joseph Kuo (11.9 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 1.5 bpg)
Kuo and Epps combine to give Wesleyan one of the staunchest defenses in the league, particularly around the rim. However, Kuo is no specialist. He led the team in scoring last season, and has good touch around the rim as well as on mid-range jump shots. He and Epps both benefit greatly from drives and dishes from Wesleyan’s killer rotation of smart guards, something that shouldn’t change this season with the emergence of Davis and Rafferty. He has struggled somewhat finishing this year, shooting only 40 percent so far, but that should level out as Wesleyan’s rotations get more consistent.
C Rashid Epps (7.9 ppg, 6.7 rpg, .593% FG)
Epps is the centerpiece of Wesleyan’s defense. A cagey defender with strong instincts and athleticism, any scoring Wesleyan got from Epps last season was a bonus. However, his impressive shooting percentage from last season shows his good touch around the rim, and this season so far he has upped his scoring to 10.3 points per game, while still rebounding well and shooting at a 61 percent clip. Epps is the kind of solid, consistent center that teams like Middlebury and Williams, who often get killed inside despite solid perimeter talent, would love to have.
Breakout Player: BJ Davis
It’s an overstatement to say that Davis was held back by Wesleyan’s balance last year. He still averaged nearly 12 points per game, and was able to put the team on his back (a la Greg Jennings) several times. Also, he got a NESCAC championship ring out of the deal, so I doubt he’s complaining. However, he always seemed to have First Team talent that would never be backed up by his numbers. This season thus far has seen a change in that. Davis has stepped out from the crowd to the tune of 23.3 points per game on 57.6 percent shooting from the field and 56.3 percent from three. Obviously those shooting percentages are not sustainable, but his quickness and athleticism have combined with leadership and experience to create a very dangerous weapon. And with Mackey starting slow, the floor is Davis’ to carry the team more than he ever needed to last season. He looks to be very ready.
Everything:
For all to TL;DR people out there, here’s the summary of Wesleyan’s chances in 2015-2016. They return most of their scoring from last year, and added a potential game changer in Salim Greene. However, Greene is a freshman and is struggling with a concussion. For them to succeed this season and possibly repeat as NESCAC champions, they will need the players from last year to both stay consistent and improve to keep up with a young and talented league. In the first three games of the season, this has been a mixed bag. A bad opening loss to Lyndon State showed the worst-case scenario for the Cardinals; they didn’t have any players explosive enough to get them a hoop when they needed it. However, the next two games featured BJ Davis shoving that idea somewhere dark and out of the way to the tune of 23 and 31 points in two wins. If Davis is truly making a First Team leap in his senior season, Wesleyan will get their experienced leaders Mackey and Edmonds back from injury and reserve a spot in the top tier with Amherst and Trinity. If he’s going to come back to earth, then the Cardinals’ brand of stolid balance and consistency might not be enough in the ever-shifting NESCAC basketball universe.
Cliché alert: sports is a copycat business, and the NESCAC has taken note of the Cards’ championship recipe. Wesleyan won by relying on a three-guard set and a short, six-man rotation. Expect other teams to start copying that strategy. Middlebury will roll out Jack Daly ’18, Jake Brown ’17 and Matt St. Amour ’17 all at once. Williams is basically playing with four guards and C Edward Flynn ’16 for stretches with a couple of freshmen forwards coming off of the bench. Wesleyan also won because their best players played the whole game. No other team relied so heavily on so few players. Mackey, Davis, Rafferty, Kuo, Edmonds and Epps all played at least 22.1 mpg last year – Chris Tugman ’15 was next with 11.2 mpg. Coach Reilly is staying with that strategy this season. Davis, Mackey, Rafferty, Kuo and Epps are all over 26.0 mpg. F Nathan Krill ’18 is at 13.7 mpg. Once Edmonds comes back, he will jump back into the six-man rotation, and Greene could stretch that to a seven-man, but that’s still a shorter bench than most teams. It’s a risky strategy, and the Cardinals will need to get healthy and stay healthy in order to be successful.
The Wesleyan Cardinals are NESCAC champions. (Courtesy of NESCAC.com)
Season: 19-9 (5-5), Won NESCAC Championship, Lost in First Round of NCAA Tournament to Skidmore
Wesleyan brought back a young and talented squad in 2014-15, but expectations, at least outside of Middletown, were low for a program that has been under .500 for the past two seasons. The Cardinals, though, were not surprised by their level of success.
“At the beginning of the season we talked about building a championship culture – something rarely associated with Wesleyan. The success of the 2012 20-win team served as confidence to get the program to the next level.” – Joe Edmonds ’16
Coach Joe Reilly relied heavily on a six-man rotation of underclassmen that featured three players capable of handling the point in Jack Mackey ’16, BJ Davis ’16 and Harry Rafferty ’16, a sharpshooting forward in Edmonds, a hyper-efficent power forward in Rashid Epps ’16 and a big rebounding machine in Joseph Kuo ’17. The impact and leadership of Chris “Air Canada” Tugman ’15, Tim “Dog Show” Gallivan ’15 and Bryan Galvin ’15 cannot be understated. Tugman and Gallivan each had crucial rebounds in the Cardinals’ first round NESCAC upset. PJ Reed ’17 and Jordan Sears ’18 provided high energy minutes and brought defensive length to the court in limited time.
Overall, Wesleyan did nothing more than make good on the tacit promises that its players made to themselves at the beginning of the season. Edmonds and his teammates talked about creating a championship culture. That was solidified when the Cards hosted the trophy.
High Point: Five-game win streak on the way to winning a NESCAC title
The Cards were 3-5 in the NESCAC on the morning of Friday, Feb. 13 and a long shot to reach the NESCAC Tournament. Wesleyan manhandled Hamilton that night and swept the floor with Williams the next day to finish at 5-5 and solidify its spot as the sixth seed. Then the Cards went on the road to the toughest gym in the NESCAC and squeaked out a W against Bates. The next weekend Wesleyan was in a hostile environment once again, but topped the Bantams in Hartford in the NESCAC Semifinals. The Cardinals torrid run culminated with an overtime win – just the second overtime game in NESCAC title game history – over three-time defending champion Amherst. The NESCAC title was the program’s first, and the first for any sixth-seed in the tournament, and the NCAA berth was also a first for Wesleyan.
MVP: Center Joseph Kuo ’17
Joseph Kuo ’17 not only led the team in scoring and rebounding, but provided some highlight reel slam dunks and was a force inside defensively. (Courtesy of the Wesleyan Argus/Jonas Powell)
It’s damn near impossible to pick one player from the Wesleyan rotation to make Most Valuable Player, because the production was spread out so equally and the defense was a complete team effort. And, if you were to ask any of the Wesleyan players (oh yeah, we did), they would only reiterate that sentiment instead of singling out a single contributor. Nevertheless, if you’re going to pull my leg, I’ve got to hand the award to Kuo, who led the team in rebounding and scoring (though just barely). The Cardinals’ best depth came in the backcourt, with Mackey, Davis, Rafferty and Reed and Sears in reserve. Take one of them away and Wesleyan might not win the NESCAC, but the Cards would still be contenders. Take away Kuo, though, and Wesleyan probably doesn’t make the NESCAC.
Players to Watch in 2015-16: Guards PJ Reed ’17 and Jordan Sears ’18
PJ Reed ’17 (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics)Jordan Sears ’18 (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics)
Wesleyan will return its offensive punch next season, but this duo of athletic guards could be ready to make a major impact on the defensive end next season. Both players check in at 6’5″ and have the chance to be forces defensively.
“PJ Reed and Jordan Sears have the potential to be really big pieces for us next year,” Edmonds said. “Coach Reilly emphasizes defense and rebounding and both provide plenty of length and athleticism.”
That Wesleyan could add two more weapons to its arsenal is a scary thought for the rest of the NESCAC.
The Cardinals come into this game playing their best basketball of the season, having won five straight and sweeping through NCAA Tournament teams Bates, Trinity and Amherst on the way to Wesleyan’s first-ever NESCAC title. Jack Mackey ’16 was awarded NESCAC Player of the Week honors for his clutch performance last weekend, and as a unit the entire Cardinals’ roster played great defensively, especially when it counted, in all three NESCAC tournament games.
The same can be said of the Skidmore Thoroughbreds who have gone 16-2 in 2015 and return to the NCAA Tournament under fifth-year coach Joe Burke after a two-year hiatus. Skidmore leaned on a tough early-season schedule to boost its SOS, but that didn’t matter as the Thoroughbreds had no trouble winning their third Liberty League title under Coach Burke and earning an automatic bid to the big dance. Of the Thoroughbreds’ seven losses, four came early in the season to some strong competition, including two NESCAC squads. Skidmore suffered a one-point loss to #4 Babson back in November, a three-point loss to Plattsburgh St. (19-8) and then a couple of close defeats to Williams and Middlebury. The only Liberty League opponent that bested the Thoroughbreds was Hobart, which defeated Skidmore twice. Hobart was a team that didn’t shoot the ball particularly well, but played very strong defense, essentially the opposite of what Wesleyan did for most of the season.
Of the four seniors on the Skidmore roster, only two played in the 2012 NCAA Tournament and will be active on Friday night. Eric Lowry ’15 is a transfer and Perun Kovacevic ’15 hasn’t played since January 24 for personal reasons. Both Nanribet Yiljep ’15 and Connor Merrill ’15 played important roles on Skidmore’s 2011-12 tournament team but for all intents and purposes both teams are getting their first taste of the NCAA stage. That doesn’t bother Yiljep.
“Like I tell my teammates, we’re breaking records this year,” Yiljep said. “It’s the first time we hosted the Liberty League tournament at home, it’s the first time we won it at home…and we’ve never gone past the first round. That’s another record to break. Let’s just break records.”
Since Kovacevic, who had started all 13 games up to January 24, exited the lineup, Martin Bedulskij ’18 and Royce Paris ’17 have seen their roles expand, with Bedulskij taking over in the starting lineup. Paris, though, has been the bigger surprise. Since January 31 he has scored double figures in eight of 10 games. Paris’ quickness and toughness to guard one-on-one may rival that of BJ Davis ’16, believed by some to be the toughest one-on-one guard in the NESCAC.
Wesleyan X-Factors: Harry Rafferty ’17
Rafferty will likely come off the bench against Skidmore because of the Thoroughbreds’ size, but his ability to create a scoring punch in relief will be critical for Wesleyan. These teams are similar in that they play very short rotations. I think that Skidmore has the weapons to guard most of the Cardinals, but Rafferty could get lost in the sauce. Erik Sanders ’16 and Connor Merrill ’15 matchup well with Joseph Kuo ’17 and Rashid Epps ’16, Aldin Medunjanin’16 will be all over Mackey, Paris can match Davis’ quickness and Bedulskij has the height to challenge shots from Joe Edmonds ’16. That doesn’t leave much in the way of someone who can stop the lefty sniper, who went cold during the NESCAC tournament but will look to breakout during the NCAAs.
Skidmore X-Factor: Aldin Medunjanin ’16
Medunjanin earned Co-Liberty League Player of the Year and in big games big players have to step up. The point guard is going to be a problem for the Cardinals, because he’s too strong and too tall for most point guards to cover, and the Wesleyan point guard triumvirate doesn’t boast exceptional height. Medunjanin plays a bit like an oversized Lucas Hausman ’16, constantly looking to drive and finish in traffic. But he also shoots the ball pretty well from deep (36.4 percent), and has better options in Sanders and Merrill to whom he can distribute the basketball.
Joe Reilly and the Cardinals celebrated their NESCAC title in classic fashion – but they’re not done yet. (Courtesy of Wesleyan Connection)
Storylines to Watch
1. Effect of the weather
Weather isn’t usually a factor in basketball games, but when it forces the Skidmore team bus to sit idle in the middle of the Jersey Turnpike, weather becomes a big story. Skidmore’s bus ride to Johns Hopkins was delayed for hours on Thursday afternoon, making the chances of the team getting an opportunity to practice on the Goldfarb Gym floor on Thursday night highly unlikely. Wesleyan, meanwhile, arrived at Johns Hopkins around dinner time, leaving plenty of time to get a feel for the court.
2. Can Skidmore stop the three ball?
Skidmore’s calling card all year has been defense. The Thoroughbreds boast the fifth-best field goal percentage defense in Division-III, but that stat is bolstered by the fact that they shut down a lot of mediocre Liberty League teams. But make no mistake, Skidmore also held Middlebury to 57 points and Plattsburgh St. to 60, so that defense is no fluke. Coach Burke confirmed, however, that if Wesleyan gets hot from beyond the arch they are very difficult to beat, and with four of the NESCAC’s better three-ball shooters in Mackey, Davis, Rafferty and Edmonds, stopping that facet of Wesleyan’s game is a tall order.
3. Who can guard the athletic big man, Erik Sanders ’16?
Sanders is listed at 6’5″, 190 lbs., similar to Wesleyan’s Epps who is 6’4″, 210 lbs. However, Epps might have a tough time guarding Sanders, who handles the ball as well as a lot of guards. We understand it’s a highlight, and of course it’s going to make him look good, but go to the 1:30 mark of the below video interview with Skidmore Coach Joe Burke to get an idea of how versatile Sanders’ game is.
What to Expect
As always, Wesleyan’s success will be dictated by how well they shoot the basketball. Even on a poor shooting day Wesleyan can win, but it will be much tougher to do. Medunjanin really creates a matchup issue for Wesleyan, but on the flip side I doubt that Skidmore has played a team with as many shooting weapons as Wesleyan and they’ll have to adjust to that style. Expect some first time jitters from both sides, which is fair on a stage this big.
Also, let’s give a little love to the Cardinal big men, Kuo and Epps. Aside from producing a myriad of highlight reel dunks, Kuo has been very efficient offensively recently and Epps is a workhorse that grabs a lot of boards without great height. In the end, I have to tip the big man advantage Skidmore’s way. I mean, the Thoroughbreds have two All-Liberty League players in their front court. But the margin isn’t huge, which is why this game will be won by guard play.
The Cards aren’t the only team that enjoyed a nice court storming last weekend. Skidmore is also coming off of a conference championship. (Courtesy of Skidmore Athletics)
Prediction:
I’ve watched a good amount of Wesleyan basketball this year, which means I know how good they can be. But I also recognize their flaws. So does that mean I end up overrating or underrating the Cardinals? I suppose only the outcome of tonight’s game will tell. I’m predicting that the magic continues for Wesleyan. I think they’ve shown that they can beat high quality teams time and time again, unlike Skidmore, who played a lot of very good teams tightly but couldn’t quite squeeze out the victory. In terms of X’s and O’s, for me the back court advantage for Wesleyan outweighs the front court advantage for Skidmore. Go Wes go!
— Wesleyan Basketball (@WesleyanHoops) March 1, 2015
Raise your hand if at the beginning of the season you had Wesleyan winning the NESCAC championship. Heck, raise your hand if you had them winning it going into this weekend. Sure, we picked Wesleyan to upset Trinity and make the finals before the weekend began, but we didn’t think they would be able to overcome the Jeffs on Sunday.
It was only 16 days ago that Wesleyan was 3-5 in the NESCAC. They had also just lost to Amherst by 17 points. BUT IT DIDN'T MATTER TODAY.
Throughout the season a lot of different teams could claim to look like the best team in the NESCAC. First it was Bates, then briefly Middlebury, then Trinity for a long time, and finally Wesleyan. Of course, the Cardinals were the ones who were the best at the end when it really mattered.
And that is an important thing to point out. The Cardinals were the best team this weekend. They won two very close competitive games against Amherst and Trinity, but they were winning for the majority of both games. The Jeffs and Bantams had to really fight just come back and make it a game in the final minutes. The Cardinals were the team that looked the most confident in the biggest moments. They were the only team this weekend that was capable of both making outside shots and getting interior points with Joseph Kuo ’17 and Rashid Epps ’16. Their defense was masterful for most of the game against Trinity. The Wesleyan team probably felt like they were on their homecourt because of the multitude of Wesleyan students who came out to support them.
The formula for the Cardinals has changed slightly in terms of ingredients from the beginning of the season, but the final result of solid defense and rebounding combined with balanced scoring has been the same all year. We say the formula has changed because some players like BJ Davis ’16, Joe Edmonds ’16 and Jack Mackey ’16 stepped up their play as the season went along. The wonderful thing about how Wesleyan plays is that they recognize very well which players are feeling it for a particular game. For example, Edmonds was the hero against Bates in the quarterfinal scoring 22 points. Then he struggled with foul trouble and didn’t make his first couple of shots against Trinity so Coach Joe Reilly played him only 16 minutes. Instead, Reilly was able to play Harry Rafferty ’17 and PJ Reed ’17 for more minutes, and the two sophomores did a great job of stepping up.
Though Wesleyan’s win is certainly surprising, we knew going into the weekend that anyone could win the championship. No team stood out as especially dominating, even though Trinity went 9-1 in conference play. As Howard Herman of the Berkshire Eagle pointed out, Wesleyan was the hottest team going into the weekend, something that mattered more this season than in years past. The Cardinals have been routinely discounted by us and others when talking about NESCAC contenders. The title of our season preview for Wesleyan was “Overlooked Cardinals Return Everyone.” After this weekend, it is hard to overlook Wesleyan anymore.
Stock Up
Wesleyan Fans
As mentioned above, the Wesleyan student fans were exceptional in turning out to help root on their team. Obviously it is a short drive from Middletown to Hartford, but it still takes a good level more commitment than simply walking out the door and into the gym. The semifinal atmosphere was awesome with Wesleyan and Trinity fans dueling it out in the stands while the two teams played it out on the floor as well. The Cardinal faithful were loud and boisterous, something that does not always happen at NESCAC games. In the finals, Wesleyan students far outnumbered Amherst students who could not be bothered to make the trip south from Massachusetts. Wesleyan has been in the news for the wrong reasons recently, and though it was obviously just a couple of basketball games, Wesleyan students were able to concentrate on something positive associated with their school. As somebody wrote on the Wesleyan Yik Yak, “After a tough week, thank you to Wesleyan basketball for giving us something to smile about.”
Point Guard Jayde Dawson ’18 and Forward Eric Conklin ’17 (Amherst)
A big reason for the buzz surrounding Amherst entering the season was Dawson and Conklin, two transfers from Division One schools. Both struggled to adjust to the NESCAC, and ended up being near the end of the rotation down the stretch. Then this weekend both were huge almost out of nowhere. For Dawson, the ability has always been there, but he struggled to fit into the Amherst system and took too many bad shots. Then, suddenly against Bowdoin he looked calmer and more in control. He was able to get to the basket consistently and scored 21 points, the only time this season he has scored more than 20. He was a little more erratic in the finals going 6-15 and turning the ball over four times, but he still scored 14 points and handed out five assists.
Conklin meanwhile found it hard to get playing time with David George ’17 firmly planted in the starting position. Then yesterday he just started hitting shots and didn’t stop. Nearly all of his points were simple shots from the block because Conklin did such a good job winning deep position. He finished the game with 19 points on 9-9 shooting. Both Conklin and Dawson were on the court during the final stretch, something they have not done all season. No other NESCAC team can claim two D1 transfers, much less two that usually don’t even play that often.
Parity
So all season we have been a little negative about how the NESCAC being so even this year could end up hurting the league for NCAA bids. Instead, that parity ended up helping the league as four teams got in. Amherst, Bates, Trinity and Wesleyan are all going dancing. Wesleyan would not have made the NCAA Tournament without their run to win the NESCAC tournament, and the other three teams got at-large bids. Bates and Amherst got their bids in large part because of some of their non-conference victories. For Bates their win over Babson was huge while Amherst boasted one of the best records against regionally ranked opponents. Trinity got their bid because of their 9-1 conference record. Four teams making the tournament from the NESCAC is rare. The last time it happened was in 2008 when Amherst, Bowdoin, Middlebury and Trinity made it. Usually the NESCAC will get two or three teams into the tournament. So why did the NESCAC end up doing better than it usually does in terms of bids? Well things broke almost perfectly for the NESCAC in a couple of ways. First, as said above, Wesleyan only made the tournament because they won the automatic bid. Then, around the country there were not too many upsets in conference tournaments which kept a lot more at-large bids open. Finally, teams that scheduled aggressively out of conference like Bates and Amherst get rewarded by the NCAA which uses Strength of Schedule extensively in their selections.
Stock Down
Forward Connor Green ’16 (Amherst)
We don’t know if something was wrong with the junior scorer this weekend physically, but he looked out of sorts in both games. His 3-14 outing against Bowdoin obviously didn’t matter because the Jeffs still won by 20, but Amherst really could have used some more offense from him yesterday. Instead, Green went 2-11 from the field and finished with eight points in 26 minutes, taking a lot of bad shots and deep, contested three pointers. Coach Dave Hixon benched him for much of the second half and overtime going instead with Jeff Racy ’17 for most of the game. Green is known as a streaky shooter, but his struggles this weekend went beyond just not being able to shoot well. He failed to adjust to his poor shooting and rarely looked to attack the basket finishing the weekend with only three foul shots. What makes this weekend all the more curious is that Green came in scorching hot and had an outside shot at resting away NESCAC Player of the Year honors from Lucas Hausman ’16. He needs to get back on track if Amherst wants to make a deep tournament run.
Trinity and Bowdoin Benches
Maybe the craziest stat from this weekend is that the non-starters for Trinity and Bowdoin, the two semifinal losers, had two points combined. Two points! The only scoring came on a jumper from Ed Ogundeko ’17 early in the first half of the Trinity-Wesleyan game. Now the lack of scoring from the Bowdoin bench is not shocking because the Polar Bears have leaned heavily on their starters all season. However, for Trinity getting only two points from their bench is almost unheard of. In their quarterfinal game, Trinity’s bench nearly outscored the starters 34-32. Guys like Ogundeko, Rick Naylor ’16 and Chris Turnbull ’17 usually offer a good amount of scoring punch for the Bantams. On Saturday for some reason all of them failed to get going and Coach Jim Cosgrove was forced to adjust. Andrew Hurd ’16 did play a lot down the stretch over Jaquann Starks ’16, but Hurd did not look to score much, though he did distribute the ball well. One of their calling cards all year has been their depth, so it was surprising to see Trinity’s bench fail to show up this weekend.
In case you hadn’t heard, March Madness has already begun. If you missed any of this past week’s NESCAC Tournament you missed some incredibly dramatic basketball games. You almost couldn’t script it any better. Wesleyan, a team that squeaked into the playoffs in the final weekend, sixth seed in a field of eight, had to travel to in-state rival Trinity and play on hostile territory. Not only did they defeat the host Bantams and cause a rare road team court storming, but they then shocked the NESCAC world for the second day in a row and knocked off the thrice-defending NESCAC Champion Amherst Lord Jeffs for the program’s first ever trip to the NCAA Tournament.
Amidst all of this, there were some impressive individual performances, and not just from the eventual champions. Two Bowdoin players made our squad, even though the Polar Bears got bounced emphatically in the Semifinals. There weren’t too many big men that put up great stat lines during the Tournament, contributing to the decision to put the Bowdoin big man on the team. As for Wesleyan, it really was a team effort from the Cardinals, but one player made it onto our All-Tournament team. Read on to see who joined him.
First Team All-Tournament
Jayde Dawson-Gordon (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)
PG Jayde Dawson ’18
Now that’s the player that we thought Dawson was going to be when he transferred from Division-I Fairleigh-Dickinson. Dawson has often made these pages for his disappointing play this season, but there is nothing negative to say about the transfer guard today. Dawson played a limited role in the Jeffs’ Quarterfinal matchup with Tufts, but exploded in the Semis and Finals for 35 points, seven assists and five boards. He showed off his athleticism on defense by disrupting passing lines and getting out in transition. We’ll find out later today if Amherst will be in the NCAA Tournament field. If they are, expect Dawson to take on a larger role, even if he continues to come off of the bench.
Jack Mackey ’16 (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics)
Guard Jack Mackey ’16
Mackey’s numbers weren’t the prettiest over the course of the whole tournament, especially a 2-10 performance in the Semis, but Mackey was clutch for the Cards, and provided the highlight of the Tournament when he chucked a bounce pass through Malcolm Delpeche’s ’17 legs to Joseph Kuo ’17 for a monster slam dunk. Mackey also banged home a big-time three to open the scoring in overtime against Amherst. As we know, Mackey, BJ Davis ’16 and Harry Rafferty ’17 are all capable of handling the basketball, but from watching the Cards this weekend it just feels like Mackey is the emotional leader among the group, and he earns this nomination in part for that intangible factor.
Lucas Hausman ’16 (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)
Guard Lucas Hausman ’16
This was about as easy of a choice as exists in this business. On Twitter, we praised Johnny McCarthy ’18 for handling Hausman well at halftime in the teams’ Semifinal game. Hausman ended up with 21 points on 8-16 shooting, this after he torched Williams for 37 on 11-20 shooting in the Quarters. Hausman is really good. He won three-straight Player of the Week awards this season, the first time that has happened in NESCAC history. And he’s on the shortlist (a very, very short list), for NESCAC Player of the Year.
Shay Ajayi ’16 (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)
Forward Shay Ajayi ’16
Ajayi had an all-around solid tournament. He drew some favorable matchups and took advantage. Against Colby, a team known for its lack of height, Ajayi posted a double-double with 10 points and 11 boards. The junior then tallied another 10 points and added six boards against eventual champion Wesleyan. Trinity will likely be playing some more basketball in March, so look for Ajayi to build on his performance in the NESCAC Tournament.
John Swords ’15 (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)
Center John Swords ’15
As always, Swords’ impact doesn’t translate completely to the box score. When Swords is in the paint there are no easy shots for the opposition. That being said, Swords’ numbers were pretty good over the course of Bowdoin’s two games. Swords tallied 37 points on 17-25 shooting (10-10 in the Quarterfinals), 20 boards and six blocks. The only knock on Swords this weekend is that opposing big men, namely Ryan Kilcullen ’15 and David George ’17, actually had pretty solid offensive games. Nonetheless, Swords was the most valuable center in the NESCAC all season.
Honorable Mentions:
Guard Connor Green ’15, Forward Sam Willson ’16, Guard Hayden Rooke Ley’15, Center Joseph Kuo ’17 and Guard Hart Gliedman ’15
Think we missed somebody? Let us know. And good luck to all of the Pool C bubble teams today as the NCAA Tournament field is decided.
