Power Rankings 12/12

First and foremost, I want to thank all of our readers who followed us so faithfully during the fall and early on here in the winter. We know that most of you are just like us, NESCAC students with a love of sports and a desire to see their classmates, peers and friends compete and succeed on the field. If you’ve been reading the blog closely these last couple months, you will know that I had the pleasure of spending this past semester in Sydney, Australia.

Yours truly crushing some surf down under. (Courtesy of Surf Camp Australia)
Yours truly crushing some surf down under. (Courtesy of Surf Camp Australia)

As a consequence, I could only follow the football and basketball action from afar and only contribute sporadically to the blog’s content. But I’m back now, ready to bring you even more analysis and opinion right here on Nothing but NESCAC, as the dramatic ‘CAC basketball season unfolds. Again, thank you for reading, and we hope you continue to do so.

Let’s get on to this week’s power rankings.

1. Bates (7-0)

It pains me to slot the Bobcats ahead of my very own Panthers, but Bates has simply been the most impressive team so far. They took down a Babson team early in the season that just dismantled the suddenly reeling (is that too strong a word?) Amherst Lord Jeffs and has wins over Bowdoin and Tufts as well. They’ve already shown that they are the team to beat in the CBB with two wins by a combined 26 points. And both Delpeche brothers have taken steps forward and become solid compliments to the likes of Graham Safford ’15, Mike Boornazian ’16 and guard Billy Selmon ’15. What’s more, the ghost of that Safford three to win the game at Middlebury last season still haunts my dreams. This team has it all. Experience, height, three point shooting (though Safford and Boornazian have started off slow in that regard), and something to prove after going 1-9 in the NESCAC last season.

2. Middlebury (7-0)

Middlebury has had some close calls already against questionable opponents (UNE and Skidmore), but they’ve found a way to win and that’s all that matters. This is a team that I believe will get better as the year progresses, as Jake Brown ’17 becomes even more comfortable as the point man, Matt St. Amour ’17 gets further removed from his knee surgery, Jack Daly ’18 gains more experience and, fingers crossed, Matt Daley ’16 gets healthy and realizes the potential that he has flashed the past two seasons. Dylan Sinnickson ’15 and Hunter Merryman ’15 are doing their part, but the team is lacking an inside presence on both ends, something we knew would be a question mark before the season started.

3. Bowdoin (5-3)

This might surprise some, as there are two teams with only two losses, but there is a method to the madness. Two of the Polar Bear’s losses came to very strong teams in Bates and Babson, which are a combined 15-1, and as we know the only loss between them came when the Bobcats topped the Beavers. The loss to Colby isn’t a great one, but I believe it was just a hiccup. Remember, this was an NCAA tourney team last year that brought back an MVP candidate in the seven footer John Swords ’15. The health concerns we had now look foolish, as Swords is playing upwards of 29 minutes per game. With him on the floor, Bowdoin has a chance against anyone.

4. Williams (7-2)

Seven straight wins is a good way to start turning heads. With all the departures and two losses to open the season, this team could have gone into panic mode quickly. But then the Ephs proceeded to launch an offensive assault, scoring at least 82 points in the next six games. However, they allowed 69+ in five of those six games. I think it’s clear that this team is going to be fine offensively, but like Middlebury the biggest question is an inside presence on defense that can discourage shooters in the lane. That’s something that all the teams above the Ephs (with the exception of Middlebury until Daley gets healthy) all have.

5. Amherst (5-2)

Three days ago, Amherst might have had a claim to the top spot on this list, but I’m not here to talk about the past. The Lord Jeffs are still among the most talented squads in the NESCAC, but they are struggling to put it all together right now. Against Brandeis their perimeter defense was mediocre. The Judges were able to run a simple three-man weave at the three-point line until one of their guards was able to catch a defender napping and drive the lane (they also shot nearly 60 percent from deep, but a lot of those were way too wide open). Coach David Hixon will likely make sure that doesn’t become a trend, but for now it’s a concern. What’s more, defensive star David George ’17 barely saw the floor down the stretch of that game as Amherst needed to score points quick. George is a great rim protector, but he can’t be a liability on the offensive end if this team is going to be next-level.

6. Wesleyan (6-2)

The Cardinals have won handily in most of their victories, and competed in both losses, losing in OT to Williams and by eight to Curry. This team’s strength is a defense that ranks third in the NESCAC, but Wesleyan suffers from a lack of depth. Six players are averaging over 20 minutes per game, and after that no one tops 11 minutes. On the flip side they do have great balance in that group with four players in double digits scoring and a fifth, Jack Mackey ’16, averaging 9.9 points per game. Besides that OT loss against Wesleyan, we do not have much to go off of for this team.

7. Trinity (7-2)

The Bantams have a defense that has been just slightly more successful than the Cardinals, and because of their stinginess last season there’s reason to believe that the D will once again be very legit. On offense, the Bantams feature a lot of solid but unspectacular pieces. Their best strategy will be to milk clock and trust that they can shut opponents down. But will that be enough against the high-powered attacks of Middlebury, Williams and Amherst?

8. Colby (6-3)

As expected, Chris Hudnut ’16 is playing at an All-NESCAC First Team level, averaging a double-double thus far. What is surprising is how far teammate Luke Westman ’16 has raised his game. Last year, Westman was quiet but deadly, averaging 9.5 points per game on 65 percent shooting while tallying a 1.75 assist-to-turnover ratio. The junior point guard has upped the ante, however, becoming more efficient and taking better control of the ball, averaging 12.2 points per game (second on the team) on 68.2 percent shooting (incredible for a guard) and posting a 2.6 assist-to-turnover ratio. This team is loaded with offensive weapons, but are sort of the anti-Trinity, as they are allowing the second-most points in the league. Defense wins championships, fellas, and as fun as the Mules are to watch, they haven’t yet figured that out.

9. Conn College (5-3)

It’s been a bumpy start for the Camels, but the St. Joseph’s win was a good one and with three straight W’s, hopefully the team can get on track. Bo McKinley ’16 is doing a good job running the point and shooting the three, and Zuri Pavlin ’17 is a beast, as expected, averaging a double-double. But two exciting freshmen have come on and made this team dangerous. Six-foot-five Isaiah Robinson ’18 tops the teams in minutes and provides another big body in the Conn frontcourt, while Lee Messier ’18 has proven to be a sharpshooter from deep and leads the team in scoring. This young duo should only get better, making the Camels a candidate to play spoiler either late in the season or possibly in the first round of the NESCAC tourney.

10. Hamilton (7-2)

Hart who? The Continentals are 7-2! Hope abounds in Clinton. But wait, not so fast. Not only is Hamilton on a two-game skid, but only one of those seven wins came against a team that currently has a winning record, and the competition doesn’t get much better before the Continentals open up conference play against Amherst. As I predicted before the season started, Ajani Santos ’16 has really elevated his game, leading the team in scoring and and shooting almost 57 percent from the floor, but Zander Wear ’18 has not mad the immediate impact that we hoped he would, and overall there’s just a gap between Hamilton and the top tier of the NESCAC.

11. Tufts (3-6)

Despite all the optimism with the return of Tom Palleschi ’17 and the promise of a healthy starting five that couldn’t get on the court at the same time last year for very long, we were skeptical before the season started about whether this team would be as good on the court as it was on paper. Unfortunately, in the past few seasons the Jumbos have just been one of those teams that can’t match its talent with its performance. As the only team in the NESCAC with a losing record right now, Tufts was a default choice for the bottom spot in these rankings. They still have the talent to rise quickly through the ranks, and two former NESCAC Rookie of the Years, as well as one of the league’s most dynamic big men in Hunter Sabety ’17, but for right now they look doomed to another disappointing season.

Colby Team Preview: Baby Mules Ready for Primetime

Courtesy of Colby Basketball
Courtesy of Colby Basketball

Colby Mules

2013-2014 Season: 14-11 (4-6), tied seventh in the NESCAC, reached quarterfinals of NESCAC tournament

Head Coach: Damien Strahorn (Colby ’02), 28-45 (.384)

Starters Returning: 5

G Luke Westman ’16

G Ryan Jann ’16

G/F Connor O’Neil ’15

F Patrick Stewart ’16

F/C Chris Hudnut ’16

Breakout Player: Luke Westman ’16

The entire Colby rotation returns so it’s a little misleading to say that one player will breakout. A lot of players should see their numbers see a subtle uptick, but Westman gets the nod because he might be uniquely capable of taking Colby to the next level. The point guard was loathe to look for his own shot and averaged 9.5 points on 5.3 shots per game. He did not make a three pointer all season but hit 78 percent of his foul shots.He was incredibly efficient for a guard, and in fact the only non-big man to shoot over 60 percent from the field in the NESCAC. If Westman can score more points without sacrificing a lot of his efficiency the Colby offense will be hard to stop.

Projected Starting Five:

PG Luke Westman

The junior is a quiet leader on and off the court (and will join the senior, O’Neil, as captain this season), but when he steps on the court he is always in control. His defense is an underrated part of his game. He led the team in steals and tied with Hudnut for second in blocks. His blocking ability is similar to Dwyane Wade as a guard that can go up and get.

SG Ryan Jann ’16

The smooth shooting guard enjoyed a quality sophomore campaign and finished the season second in scoring on the team. He shot a low percentage from the field in large part because he takes difficult shots most of the time. Some of that is because the shot clock is running down and Jann is the best Mule at creating his own shot, but he will have to improve his shooting percentage this year.

G/F Connor O’Neil ’15

A player who has been an integral part of the program since the day he stepped onto campus will be a senior leader on a team made up mostly of juniors. His improvement was a big reason why the team saw an uptick in wins last year. He is also the best perimeter defender in the starting five and will be tasked with taking on the top scorer on most teams.

F Patrick Stewart ’16

He works greatly next to Hudnut down low as a more athletic and dynamic defender. He is no slouch on the offensive end as he was third on the team in scoring. He actually made the most threes and shot the highest percentage from deep. An underrated part of the starting five, Stewart is a big part of what makes the Mules so difficult to guard on offense.

F/C Chris Hudnut ’16

Nobody would describe Hudnut’s game as flashy, but the results are impossible to ignore. The big man expanded his range all the way out to the three point line giving Colby four players who can shoot from deep on the floor at once. Still the most impressive part of his game is down in the post where he has a polished offensive game and made strides on defense. Though he is not a big shot blocker, he fights hard for positioning and rebounds the ball well averaging 8.4 boards per game.

Everything Else:

Last year the Mules managed to sneak up on teams a little bit, but this year teams will go into games ready for a battle. The bench remains the same with Shane Rogers ’15 a vital cog off the bench. He is a solid two way player who hit over 40 percent of his threes in 2013-14. Sam Willson ’16 is the main front court player off of the bench. He brings a similar skill set to Stewart in that he can put the ball on the floor and make threes from the power forward position.

The big area where Colby has to improve is on the defensive side of the ball. Opponents in NESCAC play had some of their best games against Colby. Defending the three point line in particular is of importance given that teams shot 37 percent last year. Look for the Mules to amp up their ball pressure on the perimeter as well.

With an energetic young coach and a core that has had another year to grow together, the potential is there for Colby to jump into the top echelon. Their improvement as the year went along was clear even though they lost a couple of tough games at the end of the year.

As for the bench mob? Some of the integral parts have graduated so it is unclear whether the end of the bench will again engage in such elaborate shenanigans . The idea for the celebrations originated with the players and the coaching staff is content with allowing the team to decide whether to continue or not.

 

Duncan Robinson Announces Transfer to Michigan

The announcement was made official on Twitter Wednesday afternoon. Duncan Robinson is leaving Williams to take a scholarship at Michigan. NESCAC fans everywhere, except for a certain corner of Massachusetts, had a little more pep in their step knowing their teams wouldn’t fall victim to Robinson’s devastating shooting over the next three years.

This was really an unprecedented offseason in NESCAC basketball because the two top underclassmen, Robinson and Matt Hart formerly of Hamilton, both transferred to Division 1 programs. Hart received a preferred walk-on spot at George Washington in the A-10 conference where he will have a chance to win a scholarship while sitting out a year because of NCAA transfer rules. Robinson’s transfer has received a lot more press nationally (SI.com and YahooSports.com have run stories) because he is receiving a guaranteed scholarship and Michigan is a much more high profile program. Writer Peter Lindholm covered some of the potential impact on the NESCAC 2014-2015 season, and we will have much more about the effect of those two leaving as we get closer to the winter.

How Robinson went from a lightly regarded high school senior to the NESCAC Rookie of the Year and subsequently a Big 10 recruit is a story of hard work and a different developmental curve. At this point it is pretty well documented how coming out of high school Robinson had offers from other schools but choose Williams early and stuck to that because none of those offers gave him nearly the combination of athletics and academics. His game, already underrated, kept getting better and better while playing for the Middlesex Magic and Phillips Exeter.He submitted one of the finest NESCAC freshman seasons ever last year. After Mike Maker left to take the head coaching job at Marist, Division 1 coaches knew they had one last chance to make right on their mistake of missing Robinson before.

VEQiFAzr_400x400

We gave our take on how we see Robinson’s game as he leaves Williams over at UMHoops.com so feel free to check it out here.  Robinson himself has said that he is still growing and definitely has a lot of muscle that can still be put on his lean frame. When news broke on Robinson possibly transferring we reached out to a couple of NESCAC players and coaches to get an idea on how they felt Robinson projected and the general level of play in the NESCAC. The responses we got back were remarkably similar in their assessment of Robinson. Both Bowdoin guard Lucas Hausman ’16 and assistant coach Brandon Linton noted Robinson’s high basketball IQ. Hausman added that “He was also a very smart player and he made very few mistakes. He knows how to space himself and use screens to get open shots even if the defense is focusing on him.” Everyone I talked to obviously touched on Robinson’s greatest strength as a player, his shooting ability. Linton put it simply after noting Robinson’s basketball IQ and shooting that “there is always room for players on any team with that skill set.” 

Their opinions of the jump that Robinson would face in moving from the NESCAC to the Big 10 centered primarily around the athleticism gap.  Colby point guard Luke Westman ’16 told us that “Division I players, for the most part are quicker, faster and stronger. Division III players may be just as skilled, but could lack the explosiveness of a Division I athlete.”  When we asked him exactly how the NESCAC level of play compares Westman said, “I think there are a few other NESCAC players that could play Division I basketball (primarily upperclassmen). I do not think any of them have the potential to be as good as Duncan though and achieve at a high level.” Hausman echoed this sentiment saying, “I think there are definitely some other players in the NESCAC that could be scholarship players at the D1 level (mostly Ivy or Patriot League), but have already used two or three years of eligibility”

At this point it is hard to project how Robinson will do at Michigan given the jump in competition, but merely the scholarship is a huge endorsement of the overall level of play in the NESCAC. Remember that Robinson was not even the best player on Williams at points last year. That would have been senior center Michael Mayer ’14 who caused NESCAC defense fits over the last few years. This isn’t an indictment of Robinson especially given the three year gap in college experience, but it shows how good some NESCAC players are.

Perhaps no player has seen Duncan Robinson grow quite like Wesleyan point guard Harry Rafferty ’17 has. They first played together way back in seventh grade, but they really became close friends when they played first together on Middlesex Magic and then at Exeter. Rafferty is very excited to see his friend take his game to a new higher level. Before he heard Robinson’s decision Rafferty told us, “if he leaves I think he will be great. He will continue to work hard and prove the doubters wrong. That’s just who he is. He loves being the underdog because he has been one his whole life.” He still thinks Duncan has a lot of room to grow as a player, and more importantly the desire and work ethic to achieve that level of play. “He is one of the hardest working guys I’ve ever met. He lives in the gym and takes a professionals approach to the game. Most importantly though, he is an absolutely GREAT person.” For Rafferty and others that have known Robinson for a while, there couldn’t have been a better person to have such a confluence of events happen to them.

Duncan Robinson and Harry Rafferty while at Exeter
Duncan Robinson and Harry Rafferty while at Exeter

We leave you with one final story from Rafferty about Robinson’s final game at Exeter in the NEPSAC Class A championship game. We wish Duncan Robinson the best of luck over the next four years at Michigan.

We were playing Choate in the championship game. It was a pretty anticipated match-up. Both teams were good. A lot of scholarship talent. We had guys going to Wisconsin, Stony Brook, and San Francisco. They had guys going to Columbia, Yale, St. Mikes so there were a lot of guys who were theoretically suppose to be better than this D3 guy going to Williams. On top of that Duncan had his worse shooting game of the season the first time we played Choate. So he had a lot of motivation. I’ll never forget, we got off the bus at Endicott, and as we walked into the gym he told me he was ready. You could tell he was locked in. He went out and dropped 24 points and 11 rebounds on 9-9 from the field and 5-5 from three. He dominated and did it in the most efficient way I had ever seen. A lot of high level college coaches were at Endicott that day and I think that’s when a lot of people started to realize how good he actually is.