Matt Daley – Page 3 – Nothing But NESCAC

Handicapping the Player of the Year Race

There are just two conference weekends left, and while athletes, coaches and fans are focused on the battle for seeding in the NESCAC tournament, individual performances over the final two weeks will play a major role in determining to whom the end-of-year awards are given.

Conference play is weighted heavily when looking at these awards because that is when the voting members, aka NESCAC coaches, get a first hand look at the candidates. Therefore it is necessary to look at matchups over the next few games in order to split hairs between all the great players in this league.

The race will be tight, and is still wide open, especially with preseason favorite Chris Hudnut ’16 succumbing to a season-ending knee injury on Jan. 24. In the five conference games that Hudnut was able to play, he averaged 21.8 points and 10.0 rebounds per game, numbers that would put him second and third respectively in conference games. Other players with high expectations, such as Hunter Sabety ’17 and Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15 have shown flashes of brilliance when on the court, but injuries will ultimately stop them from getting enough minutes to be true contenders. With Hudnut going down, the picture became a lot less clear. Below we handicap the Player of the Year race as it stands today.

C John Swords ’15

Odds: 50:1

As the guy who ought to be the hands-down Defensive Player of the Year, he should be in the discussion for overall Player of the Year as well. He probably won’t do enough on the offensive end to be seriously considered for the award, but his defensive impact is unquantifiable. Beyond the 17 blocks (1st) and 65 rebounds (2nd) that he has in seven conference games, he is undeniably the best rim protector in the NESCAC, and the main reason why opponents jack up more treys against the Polar Bears than anyone else.

PG Joseph Lin ’15

Odds: 30:1

Lin’s transformation has been a hot topic this season. The senior is the third-leading scorer in NESCAC games and the league’s top assist man by a wide margin. On a winning team his odds would be much better. While the POY award isn’t necessarily the best player on the best team, it often seems that way. Aaron Toomey’s ’14 Jeffs won the NESCAC tournament in both years that he was given the award, Ryan Sharry ’12 and the runner-up Panthers finished 26-4 that season. Troy Whittington ’10 and Williams went 29-3 in 2010-11. You get the idea. With no clear cut dominant team in the NESCAC this season the award could go to a player on a middle of the pack team, but not one who isn’t in the NESCAC playoffs.

SG Lucas Hausman ’16

Odds: 25:1

Another Bowdoin guy, and another that has elevated his game to a new level this season. Hausman has been an animal in conference play, averaging 23.7 points per game. He’s somewhat one dimensional; he loves to cut to the hoop, especially in transition, and force off-balance shots in traffic. But hey, it works for him. He is shooting 44.9 percent from the field in conference games and he is arguably the league’s best free throw shooter, which is good because he gets to the stripe more than anyone. As unfair as it is, his class might hurt Hausman somewhat in this chase. If it comes down to him and a senior who seem like a toss-up, the award will probably land in the elder’s hands. But a strong tournament run could quickly and significantly improve Hausman’s odds.

G/F Connor Green ’16

Odds: 18:1

After a fantastic sophomore campaign in which Green became the Lord Jeffs’ second option to Toomey, Green had a bit of a slow start to 2014-15. Through his first two games of January (10 total), Green was averaging 13.2 PPG. In the subsequent 10 games? 18.0 points per game. And in the last five, since the changing of the guard occurred at the point, Green has topped 30 points twice, including 33 against Bowdoin on Jan. 31, a record for the junior against D-III opponents (Green dropped 42 against D-II Nova Southeastern in a 105-101 loss last season). With more strong games against Conn. College and Wesleyan this weekend, followed by a big game against Middlebury next weekend, Green could leap frog those with better odds and steal this award. That last game in particular will be huge, as Green will probably have to deal with the size, speed and strength of Dylan Sinnickson ’15. A win in that head-to-head matchup, much like the one earned by our POY favorite, will go a long way towards winning over the votes of the NESCAC coaches.

PG Graham Safford ’15

Odds: 9:1

Safford fits the POY mold; senior leader, battle-tested, big moments on his resume, leading scorer, fills up the stat sheet and almost never leaves the court. Like Toomey in the last two years, Safford is the type of court general without whom his team would fall apart. Let’s compare the stat lines of Toomey from ’13-’14 and Safford from this year:

Safford: 36.6 MPG, 15.7 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 6.1 APG, 2.3 SPG, 1.5 A/TO, 39.2 FG%, 31.2 3PT%, 78.3 FT%

Toomey: 34.6 MPG, 19.9 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 6.4 APG, 2.0 SPG, 2.5 A/TO, 46.4 FG%, 40.2 3PT%, 91.2 FT%

The glaring difference doesn’t appear until you start looking at the percentages. Toomey was a more prolific scorer and he did it in a more efficient way, but Safford is comparable to Toomey across the board in other categories. The most important thing in favor of Safford’s campaign is that Bates rides or dies with the point guard’s play. If he can take them to the NESCAC Championship game he might convince the coaches that he is worthy of the award.

F Dylan Sinnickson ’15

Odds: 5:1

What a great story this kid is. As a freshman on Middlebury’s best team ever he played just over 10 minutes per game, averaged 5.7 PPG and shot just two, that’s right, two, three-pointers. Then he had to sit out his entire sophomore campaign because of a broken arm. Last year he returned and was a revelation, running the pick and roll to perfection with Joey Kizel ’14 and spreading the floor, dropping 43 percent of his attempts from long range, including a couple of game winners. He’s past the injury that took away his sophomore season, he’s returned with a vengeance from the personal break that he took from the game last season, and he’s completely reinvented his game. He’s possibly the most athletic guy in the NESCAC in any sport. He runs like the wind. On the baseball diamond he’s known for beating out routine grounders to shortstop. He jumps through the roof. And when he grows that hair out people often refer to him around campus as “That kid that looks like Jesus”.

The numbers bear out the praise. Sinnickson has racked up 18.7 PPG (4th in NESCAC), 11.1 RPG (1st), and does so with good percentages, 48.0 percent from the field and 35.0 percent from deep. On the other end of the floor, he often draws the opponent’s trickiest matchups. Hamilton’s Ajani Santos ’16 and Conn’s Zuri Pavlin ’17 can tell you just how much of a menace Sinnickson can be. The only reason he isn’t tops on this list is because in his toughest head-to-head matchup of the season Sinnickson was bested by our POY favorite.

G/F Dan Wohl ’15

Odds: 3:1

Against Middlebury last Friday night, Wohl went 5-10 from the field and 7-7 from the stripe for 18 points while also shutting down Sinnickson, who went 3-11 from the field for seven points. Wohl has been consistently great, but he has truly been incredible since a December 6 matchup with Springfield. Amidst all the change of the offseason, there seemed to be a transition period for this Williams team at the beginning of the season, and while they are still working out some of the kinks, Wohl seems to have gotten very comfortable. In the span of 28 seconds near the end of that Springfield game, Wohl completed an and-1 and flushed another lay up to put the Ephs up nine and score what would end up as the winning basket. He added a steal and two more free throws in the final two minutes to seal the victory, finishing with 20 points and seven boards. Since that game, Wohl has averaged 22.1 PPG.

Wohl is the second-leading scorer in conference games while also snagging 8.5 RPG in those games, and is among the league’s best defenders, swiping 1.3 SPG while playing lock-down defense. Williams still has to play Bates, Tufts, Conn and Wesleyan before the season is out. All of those teams except Conn are in the top half of the NESCAC in scoring defense, meaning that it will be a challenge for Wohl to keep up his scoring production down the stretch. But if he can score 18 on Middlebury, Wohl should be up for the challenge.

Friday Recap and Saturday/Sunday Preview

Reaction to Friday’s Games

Will the Real Middlebury Please Stand Up?

You’re killing me, guys. A 9-0 start, an 0-2 start to conference play including a blowout loss to Tufts, an absolute dismantling of Wesleyan, just scraping by with a win against the conference’s only remaining winless team, and now another blowout loss to the Ephs. I was starting to think that the Tufts and Conn. games could be chalked up to having to play on Sunday and maybe that’s where Middlebury’s struggles were based, but there was no excuse for this one. Nearly a full week of rest and preparation and the Panthers just fell flat. And the game was never really close. Middlebury had the lead for all of one possession of the ball game before Williams stole it away for good with a Dan Aronowitz ’17 trey with 19:11 to go in the first half.

Hayden Rooke-Ley '15 poured in 20 points on 5-11 (3-8 3PT) shooting to lead all scorers. (Courtesy of Williams Athletics) — Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15 poured in 20 points on 5-11 (3-8 3PT) shooting to lead all scorers. (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)

Obviously, I’m closer to the Middlebury team than any other in the NESCAC, and so I still have hope for this season because I understand why they’ve had some of their struggles. Matt St. Amour ’17 returned tonight but likely wasn’t at full strength and showed some rust from the three-point line, going 0-4. Captain Dean Brierley ’15, who has filled in in the starting lineup the last three games, is a capable shooter himself but St. Amour has a more dynamic offensive game when he’s good and healthy. The performance from Matt Daley ’16 was certainly promising. It’s been a month now since the athletic big man has returned to action but Coach Jeff Brown has been working him into the rotation slowly. For what reason, we don’t know. Perhaps to teach Daley a lesson or simply because Nick Tarantino ’18 had been playing consistently. However, a near double-double from Daley in just 21 minutes (a season high) might inspire Coach Brown to let Daley loose a bit more going forward. It’s worth the chance because obviously this team is not in a place right now where it can compete for the NESCAC title, and Daley could be an X-factor down the stretch. Last but not least, it was just an uncharacteristic night for Middlebury as they shot poorly from everywhere on the floor and they allowed the Ephs to shoot over 50 percent from the floor. On the season Middlebury opponents were shooting under 37 percent from the field before this game. Maybe the sloppy performance has something to do with the fact that J-term just ended for the Middlebury team. Perhaps they felt that little bit of fatigue mixed with relief that always comes with passing in a final paper or taking that final exam. But they will need to overcome distractions much more serious than that if they are going to win the NESCAC this season.

The PG Battle in Amherst is Over

Reid Berman ’17 is the real deal. I talked in the Friday Preview about how Berman was a pass-first point guard who could really grab hold of the starting job with a good performance on Friday night. Berman did pretty much exactly what he was supposed to do, dishing out 13 assists. And as advertised, he didn’t look to shoot much, only taking five shots (missing them all). Of course, Berman is not a polished product. Zero percent from the floor isn’t a good stat, no matter how many assists you tally, and he also turned the ball over six times, but he seems to be a good fit on a team with three starters who can knock down a lot of trey balls.

All Hail the Bantams

For at least one day, Trinity is the undisputed king of the ‘CAC. I doubted the Bantams going into this one, thinking that John Swords ’15 would force Trinity to take a lot of threes and I didn’t think a lot of those threes would go in. Well, I was half right. Trinity attempted 26 threes, just three short of a season high, but they were able to sink 11 of them (42.3 percent). Rick Naylor ’16 was the hero for the Bantams, scoring seven straight points, including a three at the end of regulation and four points to open the overtime period, to help clinch the victory.

Rick Naylor '16 scored 13 of his 16 points after halftime to help the Bantams beat the Polar Bears. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics) — Rick Naylor ’16 scored 13 of his 16 points after halftime to help the Bantams beat the Polar Bears. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)

Defense was the story of the night. Shot clock violations played into the narrative on both sides. Trinity forced one near the end of regulation and Bowdoin caused their own with five seconds left in overtime, but was unable to get a clean shot for the win and Bryan Hurley’s ’15 desperation three was no good as the buzzer sounded.

Ed Ogundeko ’17 continues to be a beast on the boards for Trinity. The 6’6″ forward snagged another 12 rebounds and still leads the NESCAC in rebounds per conference game despite coming off of the bench and only playing 20.5 minutes per conference game.

If there’s a downside to the Bantams thrilling victory, it might be that this game would suggest that Trinity needs an uncharacteristically efficient shooting night in order to beat the NESCAC’s best. But this is just one game, so let’s not jump to conclusions. Instead, let’s let the Bantams enjoy their time atop the heap. If we’ve learned anything in the NESCAC this season it is that no one is safe, so don’t get too comfortable up there.

Saturday/Sunday Preview

Players to Watch

1. Guard Joseph Lin ’15 (Hamilton)

Hamilton has given Middlebury a tough time in these teams’ last two matchups, Middlebury is going to be angry and Lin and Co. got Friday off so they’re going to be fresh. The student body is on vacation in Middlebury so it won’t be a particularly boisterous crowd, and I think that could benefit Lin, who had his worst conference game so far in the Hamilton win over Williams last week. I think Lin bounces back despite Middlebury’s tough defense. This is somewhat of a gut call, but if there’s one reason that I think Lin could have a big game it’s simply that I don’t see anyone else in the Hamilton starting five drawing a favorable matchup. Not that Lin vs. Jake Brown ’17 is an easy assignment for Lin to score on, but I think the Continentals lean heavily on the senior guard in this one and that he rises to the occasion.

2. Center John Swords ’15 (Bowdoin)

Last night Swords was more active and engaged on the offensive end than he has looked in a lot of games recently shooting it 13 times, a season high. Unfortunately he made only six, a terrible night considering his usual shooting percentages. Still, the Polar Bears would be happy to have Swords shoot so often every game. How Swords’ minutes get managed today will be fascinating to watch. He played a season high 41 minutes against Trinity, a very physical team. Bowdoin does not really have another player who can keep David George ’17 off of the offensive boards for Amherst so they are going to need their big guy to play a lot. Whether Swords is physically up for it is a big question. If he is not then the Polar Bears will need to dig deep if they want to avoid an 0-2 weekend.

3. Guard Harry Rafferty ’17 (Wesleyan)

Like Wesleyan as a team, at times Rafferty looks like one of the finer guards in the conference who is especially lethal from downtown. Then he also has games where he struggles to find his rhythm. Yesterday, Rafferty came off the bench, something he has done a couple of other times only to return to the starting lineup the next game. He played well coming off the pine with 15 points, six rebounds and three assists. That was not enough for Wesleyan to overcome a huge night from Graham Safford ’15. Rafferty has become more of a straight scorer this year, so making him the primary scorer off the bench is not actually a crazy idea. He and Tarik Smith ’17 could end up locking horns on both ends of the floor if both of them come off the bench. That two guards so talented are both filling a reserve role makes for an interesting storyline to watch today.

Game of the Day: Bowdoin (13-5, 4-2) at Amherst (13-5, 3-3), 3:00 PM

I get the feeling that this will be the closest of the five games to be played today and tomorrow. After Bowdoin lost the nail-biter with Trinity yesterday this game took on a lot more meaning for the Polar Bears, who could go from potential number one seed to middle of the pack over the course of two days if they lose to the Lord Jeffs. As mentioned above, the Swords-George matchup should be a good one, but the most interesting battles to watch will not be when the ball is in either player’s hands, but rather the fights for rebounds. Both players are defense-first and are top five in both rebound and blocks per game. Offensively, both players are very efficient, so something will have to give in this matchup.

Amherst’s biggest challenge will be stopping explosive guard Lucas Hausman ’16. The kid just keeps getting better and does most of his damage inside the arc or at the free throw line. The Lord Jeffs have had some difficult stopping guard penetration this season and have committed the third-most personal fouls per game in the NESCAC. Those two factors combined could mean a lot of trips to the line for Hausman, a 91.1 percent free throw shooter who went 13-13 from the stripe against Trinity last night. We will see some combination of Johnny McCarthy ’18 and Connor Green ’16 lined up with Hausman. Whether either player can slow down the Bowdoin scoring machine could be the difference in this game.

Lucas Hausman '16 has been unstoppable as of late. The junior dropped a career-high 30 against Trinity in a losing effort on Friday. (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics/www.CIPhotography.com) — Lucas Hausman ’16 has been unstoppable as of late. The junior dropped a career-high 30 against Trinity in a losing effort on Friday. (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics/www.CIPhotography.com)

Another interesting matchup occurs at the point guard position, where both teams employ Rajon Rondo-like playmakers. Hurley and Berman are both looking to pass first, the latter almost to a fault, so it should be fun watching them attack one another possession after possession. Hurley obviously gives up some size to Berman, but that shouldn’t be much of a disadvantage in this game seeing as Berman is unlikely to rise and fire, meaning that Hurley could have one of his best defensive games of the season today.

I missed on my prediction yesterday when I stated that Bowdoin would win by 10 over the Bantams, and today I’m going to have to pick against the Polar Bears. Especially given Amherst’s home court advantage, I think the Lord Jeffs win on a couple late free throws by Green. Keep in mind, though, that Amherst lacks a dead eye free throw shooter like Hausman. Green is the best from the stripe and he is shooting under 75 percent. I think he comes up clutch today, but the opportunity is there for Bowdoin to foul early and capitalize on some missed front ends of a one-and-one. Nevertheless, the pick is in: Amherst by five.

Enjoy all the games today.

Amateur Hour is Over, Conference Play is Here: The Weekend Preview 1/9

The Bates bench is excited about the conference season beginning. So should you. (Courtesy of Bates College)

We only get five weekends of NESCAC conference basketball. Heck, I am only in session to watch my beloved Bowdoin Polar Bears for three home conference games, and the first one of those is not until February 8! Unlike most other conference schedules that see teams play each other twice, the NESCAC only gives you one shot at every team meaning every game takes on extra importance.

When all five games tip off at 7 PM tonight, it will usher in one of the most open conference seasons in years. Though we lack any official Las Vegas odds in the NESCAC, nobody should feel very confident about their chances right now. Which also means that almost everybody should feel at least a little bit confident about their chances right now.

This is going to be fun. Here is your weekend preview.

Three Players to Watch

1. Point Guard Mike Greenman ’17 (Williams): The sophomore has a knack for finding his way into the biggest moments on the court. Against Trinity and Amherst Greenman will have to initiate the offense and pressure the defense by getting into the lane. Often Greenman is not the person who ends up finishing plays but rather intends to attract defenders for others. When he drives to pass, he opens up space and driving lanes for star seniors Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15 and Dan Wohl ’15. The downside to Greenman’s ability to get into the lane is that he turns the ball over at the third highest rate in the NESCAC at 3.7 turnovers per game. Defensively, Greenman will likely not guard Jaquann Starks ’16 on Friday but rather match up with the other guard on the floor.

2. Center Zuri Pavlin ’17 (Conn College): The Camels are one of the youngest teams in the NESCAC so it will be interesting to see how they fare in the first weekend of NESCAC play. Pavlin is a double-double machine and the best player for Conn. This weekend he gets to play two of the premier centers in the NESCAC in John Swords ’15 from Bowdoin and Chris Hudnut ’16 from Colby. Last season against those two teams Pavlin scored only 12 points combined. He will need to score way more points than that if there is any way for Conn to spring an early upset on two teams that have had some significant struggles so far.

3. Shooting Guard Lucas Hausman ’16 (Bowdoin): The Polar Bear offense often goes through long droughts within games. Hausman is the best player on Bowdoin at creating his own shot. While the 6’3″ guard is barely 170 pounds dripping wet, he can get to the basket because of his athleticism. He scored 28 points Tuesday at Bridgewater State and is now the leading scorer for Bowdoin with 15.6 points per game. That game Tuesday saw Bowdoin blow an 18 point first half lead and then a nine point lead in the final 4:59 of regulation. The Polar Bears are very thin after their starting five so they need their stars to come through every game. Hausman has taken up the mantle of the leading scorer, and he will need to score often and efficiently.

Top Three Games to Watch

There is not enough time or space for us to preview every single game that is going on this weekend. So while the depth of the league means almost every game is worth tuning into, every week we will go in-depth on the three most important games.

3. Friday 7:00 PM: Colby (7-5) at Wesleyan (10-2)

The NESCAC opener for these teams will tell us a lot about two teams that are part of that upwardly mobile NESCAC middle-class. Do not let Colby’s 7-5 record make you think that this is not a good team. All but one of their losses is a “good” one, if there is such a thing, and they have quality victories over Bowdoin and Husson. Wesleyan is coming in on a six game winning streak, and one of their two losses was in overtime to Williams.

The Colby offense revolves around Chris Hudnut ’16, the talented big man who has taken his game to yet another level this season. For Wesleyan the emergence of Joseph Kuo ’17 means that the Cardinals now have a player capable of matching up with Hudnut while Rashid Epps ’16 can shift to the power forward position. Epps could be primed for a big game one year after having Hudnut shut him down. He will have Sam Willson ’16 on him in what could be a mismatch for Colby because of Epps physicality.

Colby has had to battle injuries that has robbed them of much of their depth. Wesleyan has seen their roles sort themselves out into a clear starting five.

Matchup to Watch: Wesleyan Points in the Paint vs. Colby Defense

Let’s be clear that Colby’s weakness is their defense. They are allowing the second most points per game in the NESCAC. The weird thing about their defensive struggles is that they have occurred despite teams shooting only 26.7 percent from three. Overall teams are shooting 41.5 percent against Colby, the third highest percentage in the league. Opponents have been getting in the paint and scoring with way too much ease. Wesleyan has changed this season from a three point heavy team to a more inside-out oriented team around Epps and Kuo. They are going to look to get the ball into the paint early and often until Colby proves that they can keep Wesleyan off the boards.

2. Friday 7:00 PM Middlebury (9-0) at Bates (9-2)

These were the last two remaining undefeated teams in the NESCAC before Bates lost two games right before New Year’s. Bates is possibly the best team that Middlebury will have faced all year, and the Bobcats are lucky to get Middlebury at home. Last year Bates beat Middlebury at Pepin Gym in what turned out to be their only NESCAC victory. The loss came back to haunt Middlebury as it was a major strike against them for an NCAA at-large bid.

The point guard match-up between Graham Safford ’15 and Jake Brown ’17 will be fun to watch. Brown is difficult to stay in front of, and Safford will have to be careful not to get into foul trouble. Bates coach Jon Furbush is likely to ask Mike Boornazian ’16 to matchup with Dylan Sinnickson ’15. Boornazian has the size and quickness to give Sinnickson problems. Bates also likes to occasionally go to a 1-3-1 zone, but given the shooters that Middlebury has, it might be difficult to defend them with a zone. On the other end the trio of Safford, Boornazian, and Billy Selmon ’15 on the perimeter is dangerous. All three are capable of getting to the basket or spotting up for three.

Do not sleep on the impact that both benches could have. Adam Philpott ’15 and Mike Newton ’16 can be a steadying force off the bench for Bates. Philpott in particular was the difference Tuesday against Brandeis with 12 big points. No one player on the Middlebury bench has jumped out for most the season, but Nick Tarantino ’18 might be emerging at just the right time. He has averaged 9.5 PPG in the two games since break and could be a crucial big body for Middlebury (see below).

One crucial thing that benefits Middlebury is that Bates begins classes on Monday so not many students will be back for the game. A lot of Lewiston community members will likely be there, but the Panthers are not walking into the fearsome Alumni Gym we usually see.

Matchup to Watch: Delpeche Brothers vs. Middlebury Frontcourt

The clear weakness of Middlebury is their front-court. Connor Huff ’16 has done a wonderful job filling in at center. However, expecting the 6’4″ Huff to stop one of the Delpeches is foolish. Six-foot eight Matt Daley ’16 is back after missing Middlebury’s first seven games. Yet he only played five minutes Tuesday night so it would be surprising if he played extensive minutes tonight. Sinnickson will be crucial in keeping Bates off of the offensive boards, a place where the Bobcats have feasted on opponents. Malcolm Delpeche ’17 enjoyed his best game of the year against Middlebury last season with 17 points and nine rebounds. Now both he and his brother Marcus are in the starting lineup. Unless they get into foul trouble, Middlebury might have a hard time keeping the Delpeches from making plays like this dunk Marcus had against Emory.

1. Amherst (8-2) at Williams (9-3)

We already went in-depth on this game in our look at preview so go take a look there for our analysis.

Power Rankings 12/12

First and foremost, I want to thank all of our readers who followed us so faithfully during the fall and early on here in the winter. We know that most of you are just like us, NESCAC students with a love of sports and a desire to see their classmates, peers and friends compete and succeed on the field. If you’ve been reading the blog closely these last couple months, you will know that I had the pleasure of spending this past semester in Sydney, Australia.

Yours truly crushing some surf down under. (Courtesy of Surf Camp Australia)

As a consequence, I could only follow the football and basketball action from afar and only contribute sporadically to the blog’s content. But I’m back now, ready to bring you even more analysis and opinion right here on Nothing but NESCAC, as the dramatic ‘CAC basketball season unfolds. Again, thank you for reading, and we hope you continue to do so.

Let’s get on to this week’s power rankings.

1. Bates (7-0)

It pains me to slot the Bobcats ahead of my very own Panthers, but Bates has simply been the most impressive team so far. They took down a Babson team early in the season that just dismantled the suddenly reeling (is that too strong a word?) Amherst Lord Jeffs and has wins over Bowdoin and Tufts as well. They’ve already shown that they are the team to beat in the CBB with two wins by a combined 26 points. And both Delpeche brothers have taken steps forward and become solid compliments to the likes of Graham Safford ’15, Mike Boornazian ’16 and guard Billy Selmon ’15. What’s more, the ghost of that Safford three to win the game at Middlebury last season still haunts my dreams. This team has it all. Experience, height, three point shooting (though Safford and Boornazian have started off slow in that regard), and something to prove after going 1-9 in the NESCAC last season.

2. Middlebury (7-0)

Middlebury has had some close calls already against questionable opponents (UNE and Skidmore), but they’ve found a way to win and that’s all that matters. This is a team that I believe will get better as the year progresses, as Jake Brown ’17 becomes even more comfortable as the point man, Matt St. Amour ’17 gets further removed from his knee surgery, Jack Daly ’18 gains more experience and, fingers crossed, Matt Daley ’16 gets healthy and realizes the potential that he has flashed the past two seasons. Dylan Sinnickson ’15 and Hunter Merryman ’15 are doing their part, but the team is lacking an inside presence on both ends, something we knew would be a question mark before the season started.

3. Bowdoin (5-3)

This might surprise some, as there are two teams with only two losses, but there is a method to the madness. Two of the Polar Bear’s losses came to very strong teams in Bates and Babson, which are a combined 15-1, and as we know the only loss between them came when the Bobcats topped the Beavers. The loss to Colby isn’t a great one, but I believe it was just a hiccup. Remember, this was an NCAA tourney team last year that brought back an MVP candidate in the seven footer John Swords ’15. The health concerns we had now look foolish, as Swords is playing upwards of 29 minutes per game. With him on the floor, Bowdoin has a chance against anyone.

4. Williams (7-2)

Seven straight wins is a good way to start turning heads. With all the departures and two losses to open the season, this team could have gone into panic mode quickly. But then the Ephs proceeded to launch an offensive assault, scoring at least 82 points in the next six games. However, they allowed 69+ in five of those six games. I think it’s clear that this team is going to be fine offensively, but like Middlebury the biggest question is an inside presence on defense that can discourage shooters in the lane. That’s something that all the teams above the Ephs (with the exception of Middlebury until Daley gets healthy) all have.

5. Amherst (5-2)

Three days ago, Amherst might have had a claim to the top spot on this list, but I’m not here to talk about the past. The Lord Jeffs are still among the most talented squads in the NESCAC, but they are struggling to put it all together right now. Against Brandeis their perimeter defense was mediocre. The Judges were able to run a simple three-man weave at the three-point line until one of their guards was able to catch a defender napping and drive the lane (they also shot nearly 60 percent from deep, but a lot of those were way too wide open). Coach David Hixon will likely make sure that doesn’t become a trend, but for now it’s a concern. What’s more, defensive star David George ’17 barely saw the floor down the stretch of that game as Amherst needed to score points quick. George is a great rim protector, but he can’t be a liability on the offensive end if this team is going to be next-level.

6. Wesleyan (6-2)

The Cardinals have won handily in most of their victories, and competed in both losses, losing in OT to Williams and by eight to Curry. This team’s strength is a defense that ranks third in the NESCAC, but Wesleyan suffers from a lack of depth. Six players are averaging over 20 minutes per game, and after that no one tops 11 minutes. On the flip side they do have great balance in that group with four players in double digits scoring and a fifth, Jack Mackey ’16, averaging 9.9 points per game. Besides that OT loss against Wesleyan, we do not have much to go off of for this team.

7. Trinity (7-2)

The Bantams have a defense that has been just slightly more successful than the Cardinals, and because of their stinginess last season there’s reason to believe that the D will once again be very legit. On offense, the Bantams feature a lot of solid but unspectacular pieces. Their best strategy will be to milk clock and trust that they can shut opponents down. But will that be enough against the high-powered attacks of Middlebury, Williams and Amherst?

8. Colby (6-3)

As expected, Chris Hudnut ’16 is playing at an All-NESCAC First Team level, averaging a double-double thus far. What is surprising is how far teammate Luke Westman ’16 has raised his game. Last year, Westman was quiet but deadly, averaging 9.5 points per game on 65 percent shooting while tallying a 1.75 assist-to-turnover ratio. The junior point guard has upped the ante, however, becoming more efficient and taking better control of the ball, averaging 12.2 points per game (second on the team) on 68.2 percent shooting (incredible for a guard) and posting a 2.6 assist-to-turnover ratio. This team is loaded with offensive weapons, but are sort of the anti-Trinity, as they are allowing the second-most points in the league. Defense wins championships, fellas, and as fun as the Mules are to watch, they haven’t yet figured that out.

9. Conn College (5-3)

It’s been a bumpy start for the Camels, but the St. Joseph’s win was a good one and with three straight W’s, hopefully the team can get on track. Bo McKinley ’16 is doing a good job running the point and shooting the three, and Zuri Pavlin ’17 is a beast, as expected, averaging a double-double. But two exciting freshmen have come on and made this team dangerous. Six-foot-five Isaiah Robinson ’18 tops the teams in minutes and provides another big body in the Conn frontcourt, while Lee Messier ’18 has proven to be a sharpshooter from deep and leads the team in scoring. This young duo should only get better, making the Camels a candidate to play spoiler either late in the season or possibly in the first round of the NESCAC tourney.

10. Hamilton (7-2)

Hart who? The Continentals are 7-2! Hope abounds in Clinton. But wait, not so fast. Not only is Hamilton on a two-game skid, but only one of those seven wins came against a team that currently has a winning record, and the competition doesn’t get much better before the Continentals open up conference play against Amherst. As I predicted before the season started, Ajani Santos ’16 has really elevated his game, leading the team in scoring and and shooting almost 57 percent from the floor, but Zander Wear ’18 has not mad the immediate impact that we hoped he would, and overall there’s just a gap between Hamilton and the top tier of the NESCAC.

11. Tufts (3-6)

Despite all the optimism with the return of Tom Palleschi ’17 and the promise of a healthy starting five that couldn’t get on the court at the same time last year for very long, we were skeptical before the season started about whether this team would be as good on the court as it was on paper. Unfortunately, in the past few seasons the Jumbos have just been one of those teams that can’t match its talent with its performance. As the only team in the NESCAC with a losing record right now, Tufts was a default choice for the bottom spot in these rankings. They still have the talent to rise quickly through the ranks, and two former NESCAC Rookie of the Years, as well as one of the league’s most dynamic big men in Hunter Sabety ’17, but for right now they look doomed to another disappointing season.

Don’t Mess with the Bobcats: Stock Report 12/8

Alumni Gymnasium with the student section at the far end. (Courtesy of Bates Athletics)

From the outside Alumni Gym does not look much. Once you get inside you realize that it actually is not big at all. That lack of size is, of course, the greatest strength of Bates’ home court. Only a few hundred people can fit into the gym which gives it a high school atmosphere. Classic old wooden stands extend back on both sides only eight rows deeps. On the far end of the gym behind one of the baskets enough space is available for 100 people to sit: a ready made fan section for Bates fanatics.

Thursday night I traveled to Bates along with nine friends to see our favorite team Bowdoin take on a surging Bates team. Last year a similar group traveled to Lewiston in February and watched Bowdoin dismantle a Bates team that was in the midst of a late season collapse. That game was during Bates’ winter break so most of the students were home for the game.

The atmosphere on Thursday night was completely different however. By the time the national anthem began, the student section was about three quarters full, and by the opening tip the gym was louder than most NESCAC gyms. Many other students littered the rest of the stands as well making empty seats a rare commodity. The first Bates basket brought a cascade of roars from under the basket that did not let up much causing some visible discomfort from the visiting Polar Bears.

After a back and forth first half, Bates busted open the game part way through the second. Bates was on offense going towards the student section in the second half, and the students had no problem letting Bowdoin hear it every time a Bates player made a basket. Two consecutive dunks put Bates up big and forced a Bowdoin timeout that could barely be heard over a rocking crowd.

Bates has been the most impressive team of the season thus far. While their 1-9 conference record still casts a shadow of doubt over them, that shadow keeps receding every game Bates plays. The NESCAC is far from Division 1 where students live and die by how their basketball team does, but Bates has staked their claim definitively as having the best home-court advantage in the NESCAC. One date to circle for certain on your calendars is January 9th when Bates opens up conference play against 7-0 Middelbury at 7 PM in Alumni Gym.

Stock Up

Guard Jaquann Starks ’16 (Trinity): So much NESCAC offensive success is based on the point guard’s play, and different teams require their point guards to approach the game distinctly. Starks is primarily asked to score in his role for the Bantams and leads the team with 15.1 points per game. His shooting percentages are 35.1/44.0/80.6 (in order of field goal/three point/free throw). Starks has struggled to shoot the ball well closer to the basket in large part because there is no spacing when he goes into the lane since he is the primary three point threat for Trinity. That lack of offensive weapons does not appear to be going away, but that does not mean Trinity is not a threat this season in the NESCAC. With Starks providing much of the offense recently, the Bantams have put together a four game winning streak since falling to 2-2.

Forward Marcus Delpeche ’17 (Bates): The Bobcats proved that they are for real not simply because they beat Colby and Bowdoin, but also how they did it. Last year Marcus played fewer than 17 minutes per game while serving as the backup for his brother Malcolm. This season Coach Jon Furbush has become comfortable with playing the two twins at the same time, and it has yielded great results thus far. Marcus is the third leading scorer for Bates with 10.7 points per game. Many of those points are off of offensive rebounds because opponents do not have power forwards capable of keeping him off of the boards. 49% of his rebounds have been offensive rebounds. Having Marcus and Malcolm playing big minutes together makes Bates capable of matching up against the likes of Amherst and Trinity in conference play.

Forward Hunter Merryman ’15 (Middlebury): If 2014 is “the year of the skilled forward” as Pete Lindholm asserts, then Merryman is the one most often forgotten about. After all, Merryman is not even the best forward on his team. Yet he still is having an All-NESCAC caliber season. He is averaging 17.1 points per game, most of which is because he is making an outrageous 56.4% of his three pointers. Logic tells us Merryman is unlikely to have morphed into an automatic shot maker, but is rather enjoying an extended hot streak that should end soon. Even when he slows down Merryman will continue to be a very good player, albeit not the second coming of Dirk Nowitzki.

Stock Down

Guard Bryan Hurley ’15 (Bowdoin): Last week was a terrible one for Bowdoin overall going 0-3 with the defeat assured well before the final buzzer sounded. A lot of things went wrong for the Polar Bears, but the sudden ineffectiveness of Hurley was one of the principle problems. The point guard averaged only 4.3 points per game in the three contests. Even more worryingly he saw his assist:turnover ratio plummet. In Bowdoin’s first four games (all wins) he had a 3.5 assist:turnover ratio but managed only a 1.1 ratio in his last three games. Without Hurley making plays, Bowdoin’s offense fell stagnant for crucial parts of the second half, and their opponents were able to pull away. Hurley and the other members of the Bowdoin senior class have to return to form quickly in order to turn things around.

Amherst and Middlebury

The Jeffs and Panthers both remain undefeated, but they both have shown real weaknesses so far. For Amherst, the problem is putting all the pieces of their talented roster together into something that works as a basketball team. We have said it before, but the Jeffs simply do not look like your normal Division 3 team since they trot out two athletic 6’8″ players, two 6’5″ wings, and a 6’2″ point guard. That hasn’t kept them from having some close calls in games. Though the final score against Emerson indicated a blowout, the Jeffs held only a one point lead halfway through the second half. A huge steal from Johnny McCarthy ’18 off an inbounds pass helped spark a major run that put the game out of reach, but it took Amherst a while to put away an Emerson team that was overmatched in terms of height.

Meanwhile Middlebury escaped their first loss of the season by the skin of their teeth, coming back from seven points down in the final minute against Skidmore to win in regulation. The win would not have been possible without five missed free throws from Skidmore in the last minute. Middlebury for now lacks any type of inside presence because Matt Daley ’16 is still out of commission, and they still seem to fluctuate wildly in their level of play. Somewhat surprisingly, Joey Kizel’s ’14 absence has not been felt as much as the lack of center Jack Roberts ’14.

Both teams love to play at a high pace and thrive on their talent in the open court. However, when teams are able to slow down games then they run into trouble. The schedule of course works in the favor of both these teams as they will have a lot of practice time over winter break to help smooth out some of their issues before they jump into conference play.

It’s a Marathon, Not a Sprint: 10 Thoughts on the First Games

We wanted to wait until every team had played a game before giving our initial impressions on the first looks that we got of NESCAC teams. It was a whirlwind of a first round of games that played out in the only way we thought it could: unpredictably.

1. Long way to March: One of the things that we harped on consistently during football was how quickly the season goes. Every football game has enormous ramifications. Obviously the same is not true for basketball as teams have months to come together as a team and gel before the NESCAC season begins. Teams as we see them now are going to look very different in a couple of months. Freshmen who barely got off the bench so far will end up influencing the conference race down the stretch while upperclassmen just getting comfortable in their roles will blossom. Do not overreact to a small sample size. Of course, that does not mean there is nothing to takeaway from these games either.

2. Injuries matter…to a point: A major takeaway was that a host of players did not suit up. Hunter Sabety ’17 missed Tufts’ first game but returned last night. Patrick Stewart ’16 will miss significant amounts of time because of a back injury, and Ajani Santos ’16 is out for an undisclosed time with an injury. Those losses all showed in their teams performance somewhat. Yet Keegan Pieri ’15 did not play for Bowdoin last weekend and the Polar Bears barely missed a beat. Pieri will be back this weekend making Bowdoin that much more dangerous, but the lesson is that teams are constructed in different ways. While Bowdoin had the personnel to survive without one of their two returning starters, other teams felt the crunch.

3. Trinity is a big fat question mark: It was surprising to see Trinity give up 83 points in their first game, but anytime your opponent goes 13-27 from three you are going to give up a lot of points. The good news was Trinity still won the game and doubled up UMass Dartmouth on the boards. When Salem State put up 102 on Trinity on Sunday then eyebrows across the league were raised. Known for their suffocating defense, the Bantams allowed Salem State to shoot 56.9 percent from the field and got out-rebounded. Trinity allowed only 61.4 points per game last year, and with everyone back their defense was supposed to be even better. They should be able to turn things around on that end, but they are not a team built to score 80 points a game so they need to improve sooner rather than later.

4. Losses hurt NCAA chances: On an individual level for each team these losses are not devastating if the teams can turn it around, but the NESCAC’s general struggles could hurt the league when the selection committee meets for the NCAA tournament. The NESCAC is generally a three bid league though it often only gets two teams into the tournament. Everyone knows how much talent left from the NESCAC so there is reason to believe that the league could be down this year. The NESCAC tournament champion gets an automatic bid. If the NESCAC continues to rack up out of conference losses that will make a NESCAC team more likely to be overlooked for an at-large bid.

5. Tufts is an enigma: For those who follow college football, the term Clemsoning is familiar. Clemson always seems to lose one game every season where they far outmatch their opponent in talent level but makes a host of mistakes to get upset. Over on the D3Boards, user lefrakenstein used the term “Tuftsing” to describe how it is almost predictable that the Jumbos are struggling out of the gate despite all of the talent on their roster. Now that they are 0-2, Tufts has to figure out how to put together all of their talent quicker than other teams. They begin conference play against Middlebury and Amherst and cannot afford to lose both of those games.

6. Williams lacks depth: The Ephs have been deeply reliant on their starting five to provide pretty much everything for them so far. Coach Kevin App did a better job last night of managing his players’ minutes, but that was not enough to stop SUNY Oneonta from mounting a large second half comeback that pushes Williams to 0-2. Ryan Kilcullen ’15 has averaged 35 minutes per game after being a secondary role player last year. The freshmen should develop and be able to give the perimeter players time to rest, but Kilcullen will need to play more than 30 minutes a game all season unless Edward Flynn ’16 can deliver on the promise he has shown. Depth is not everything (Amherst basically only played their starters down the stretch last year), but it sure helps.

7. Aaron Toomey’s absence looms large: Of course there was no question that Amherst was going to miss Toomey, one of the most decorated players in NESCAC history, but with Jayde Dawson ’17 transferring in from Division-I, the hope was that the team would adjust its style of play. Dawson struggled mightily in his first game and was benched down the stretch last night, but he should turn things around. Even then he is not the same type of player as Toomey. I did not realize it until I watched Toomey live, but he had this unbelievable skill of being in complete control of the game no matter the circumstances. Reid Berman ’17 looked much more confident than he did last year and was a major reason Amherst came back, but he still had three turnovers including one where the defender simply picked his pocket and scored a layup the other way.

8. Shooting is at a premium right now: One of the reasons for teams struggling to score is futility from the outside. More than half of NESCAC teams are making less than 30 percent of their threes. A lot of that is because the premier shooters in the NESCAC graduated. The top five players from last year in terms of three pointers made all departed from the NESCAC so don’t be shocked if long range shooting is down throughout the year. Percentages should tick up somewhat as players get more comfortable shooting in game conditions.

9. John Swords ’15 is amazing: The seven foot center went out and played what is at this point typical John Swords basketball, averaging 18 points and 12 rebounds on the weekend. Let us clarify that the concerns about his health were very real. Yet that did not affect him this weekend for a very simple reason. Swords got new shoes that he started using this weekend that made the pain in his legs go away. Mind you that these are not special shoes made to alleviate pain or something like that. They are simply new shoes. Swords felt completely confident in his ability to do whatever he normally does on a basketball court this weekend. That is great news for Bowdoin and terrible news for everybody else in the NESCAC.

10. A juggernaut could lurk: My bold prediction during the preseason was that every single team would lose two games in the NESCAC regular season. No regular season conference champion has had two losses since the crazy 2000-2001 season when five teams finished at 6-3 (Hamilton was not in the NESCAC yet). After seeing every team play I stand by that prediction for now. However, given how many injuries Middlebury had this weekend, the fact they still went 2-0 means they had the most impressive weekend of anyone. The Panthers played without Matt Daley ’16, a player many think could be All-NESCAC if he stays healthy. Jack Daly ’18 looks like an instant impact player who gives Middlebury plenty of depth in the backcourt. The Panthers lost a lot of talent, but the assortment of pieces in Vermont could gel together quite nicely.

Middlebury Team Preview: The Panthers Have Loads of Potential

Middlebury Panthers

2013 Record: 17-9 (6-4 NESCAC), third in NESCAC, reached semifinals of NESCAC tournament

Head Coach: Jeff Brown, 18th season (274-167, .621)

Starters Returning: 3

G Matt St. Amour ’17

G/F Dylan Sinnickson ’15

F Hunter Merryman ’15

Breakout Player: Dean Brierley ’15

Though the guard played only 7.7 minutes per game last season, he earned his co-captaincy because of the respect he commands for his work ethic. If you have ever walked by Pepin Gymnasium during the day, at any time of year, you have likely seen Brierley making it rain from all over the court. He is one of the smoothest shooters in practice. The challenge now is for the senior to translate his skills to the game.

Projected Starting Five:

Jake Brown (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)

G Jake Brown ’17

It is tough to follow one of the best players in program history, but Brown is up to the task. Brown, nephew of coach Jeff Brown, is a different type of player than the departed Joey Kizel, a feisty defender and pass-first point guard. For his position, Brown is probably the best defender on the team. He should see a big bump in production because of increased minutes after playing only 21.7 minutes per game last year.

Matt St. Amour (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)

G Matt St. Amour ’17

St. Amour began last season starting at the two guard, but struggled shooting the ball, which ought to be his greatest strength. His season was cut short when he succumbed to a torn ACL in early February, but reports are that he has made a speedy recovery and will be active for the season opener. It’s possible that Brierley begins this season starting at the two-guard, but this is a long term prognostication. St. Amour, when he’s healthy and effective, will be in the starting lineup.

Dylan Sinnickson (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)

G/F Dylan Sinnickson ’15

Was there a bigger surprise in 2013-14 than Sinnickson? The super athletic swing man had his sophomore season ruined because of injury, but he became the Panthers’ best scoring threat very quickly last year, nearly matching Kizel in every scoring category but free throw percentage. If Sinnickson can get to the line a bit more and hit his freebies at a higher rate, he could make a run for NESCAC Player of the Year. And he should be able to get to the stripe, because his athleticism lets him get to the rim more often than not.

Sinnickson rises for a three-pointer. The swingman shot 42.9 percent from deep in 2013-14. (Courtesy of Jeff Patterson)

Hunter Merryman (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)

F Hunter Merryman ’15

Merryman was among the nation’s best three-point shooters two years ago, and though he did not hit at quite that high of a rate last season, he still shot over 40.0 percent from deep and averaged 12.3 points per game. Merryman and St. Amour will be counted on to hit open shots in transition.

Matt Daley (Courtesy of Midlebury Athletics)

C Matt Daley ’16

Daley represents the biggest question mark for the Panthers. For anyone that has watched Middlebury over the last two years, the wait for Daley to turn into a day-in an day-out force has been a long one. Much of the inconsistency is due to poor luck, as Daley suffered from mono for much of last season, but when he was healthy early on he had some dominant games. Better than his 24-point performance in the season opener was his all-around effort against Tufts, in which he scored 15 points in just 15 minutes and frustrated Tufts’ Hunter Sabety ’17 in the second half of the game. Daley’s presence will be as important, if not more so, on the defensive end as the offensive end, as he will be needed to shut down some of the NESCAC’s impressive frontcourts, such as Tufts and Amherst.

Everything Else:

In a down year, the Panthers entered the NESCAC tournament as the third seed last season. Despite the loss of some integral parts, this year’s team could be better than last, if everything goes right. The transition game will be the Panthers’ strength, as they will be able to match their opponents’ athleticism at every position.

The rest of Middlebury’s rotation, after the six players listed above, will consist primarily of G Bryan Jones ’17, F Jake Nidenberg ’16, F Connor Huff ’16, C Chris Churchill ’15 and newcomer G Jack Daly ’18.

Jones can be electric and is an above average shooter, but he did not get much time last year as he sat behind Kizel and Brown at the point. He will need to play with energy at all times on the floor if he wants to get significant minutes.

Jones will also be pushed by Jack Daly, whom Coach Brown refers to as “game ready”. Daly has good size for the point at 6’3″, and is strength is the transition game, which fits in perfectly with Middlebury’s style.

Forwards Nidenberg and Huff saw similar minutes last season. The former is a high-energy guy who can chip in with points, boards and defense. Unfortunately, he is still recovering from an injury suffered over the summer and has yet to participate fully in practice. Huff is a crafty offensive player who can come in for a shift and tally a few points.

Churchill has not gotten many minutes in his career, but as a senior and the biggest body on the roster, he will be crucial in spelling Daley and providing strong defense.

The biggest concerns for this year’s team will be the lack of experience beyond the starting five and whether or not someone can step up and become a dominant one-on-one defender. Over the last two seasons, Nolan Thompson ’13 and James Jensen ’14 were able to take the other team’s best offensive player and neutralize his impact, but seeing as Brown stands at 5’10”, he is unable to defend beyond the point guard position. Sinnickson has the size and athleticism to fit the Jensen mold, but he will be relied upon so heavily to score that it might be asking for too much for him to be a shutdown defender as well. We might see some interesting lineups that could free up Daley to defend big 3’s and 4’s.

Despite the inexperience of the second half of the rotation and the defensive questions, Middlebury has enough talent to compete for a NESCAC title.