We are pretty late with the final fantasy roundup of the season, so just to be clear – these statistics are from the final regular season weekend of conference play. The Quarterfinals that took place on Saturday had no impact on our fantasy matchup.
Heading into last weekend, I held a 5-3 advantage over Adam, but many of those leads were by the slimmest of margins. For instance, I was up just 19 assists, 1.1 percent from the stripe, 1.9 percent from the field and a measly one rebound.
Thinking that I would be able to hold onto my percentage advantages on the strength of Luke Westman ’16 and Lucas Hausman ’16, in addition to a couple of efficient big men, I threw all my efforts into the rebounding category believing that it would make the ultimate difference.
Also, with Joseph Lin ’15 unfortunately suffering a season-ending injury, I had to drop my team’s namesake, and in Lin’s place I slotted in Ryan Jann ’16, a good rebounding guard who could also hit some threes for me. I decided to roll with the resurgent Matt Daley ’16, double-double machine that he is. It killed me to sit Connor Green ’16, but he only had one game this weekend. It turned out to be a great performance, but I had to give the nod to the two Mules guards and Hausman.
Position
Lord of the ‘CAC (Adam)
Lin and Tonic (Joe)
G
H. Rooke-Ley
L. Westman
G
G. Safford
R. Jann
G
J. Brown
L. Hausman
F
J. Swords
Mal. Delpeche
F
Mar. Delpeche
M. Daley
F
T. Palleschi
D. George
F
J. Kuo
Z. Pavlin
Bench
J. McCarthy
H. Merryman
Bench
D. Wohl
C. Green
Bench
A. Santos
J. Starks
I was able to lock up rebounds, the only category that I thought I was in danger of losing, thanks to 20+ rebounds from Daley, David George ’16 and Zuri Pavlin ’17. I had a shot at steals being down just seven, but Adam beat me in that category this week. What I didn’t anticipate was the abysmal performance my team put together from the line. Those same three big men combined to go 21-36 (58.3 percent) from the stripe. So what appeared to be my strength ended up costing me big time.
Week Five
Category
Lord of the ‘CAC
Lin and Tonic
Leader
Points
148
221
Joe
Assists
34
32
Adam
Rebounds
72
105
Joe
Steals
13
11
Adam
Blocks
17
14
Adam
FT%
75.5% (37/49)
68.0% (51/75)
Adam
FG%
40.9% (52/127)
52.9% (31/153)
Joe
3PT Made
7
8
Joe
As you will see below, Adam edged me out in free throw percentage. And there you have it. A rotten 4-4 tie. This leaves a worse taste in my mouth than the Graham Safford ’15 jumper at the end of the game that put the nail in the Middlebury coffin in 2014. I guess there’s nothing to do about it now, though. I suppose we now have to turn out attention to the so-called “real” basketball games coming up this weekend.
It was a wild quarterfinals Saturday in the NESCAC, and we laid out our initial reactions in this video Saturday night, but we’ve now had a bit of time to digest all the action and think about how those results will impact Championship Weekend. We had two games go as expected with #1 Trinity and #2 Bowdoin sealing victories, and two underdogs win on the road in hostile environments.
Stock Up
The NbN Team
I got so caught up in the excitement of Saturday’s games that I almost didn’t realize that as a team we went 4-0 in our predictions, and Adam’s snipe of the Wesleyan upset was really impressive. He almost pinned the score, too. Obviously, no one wants to read about us, they want to read about the players. But I thought we deserved a quick little pat on the back, so excuse our self-indulgence.
Amherst Center David George ’17
Back to business now. George was an animal on Saturday. I don’t know if the big man reads the blog, but maybe he got a little riffed that I called out his offensive game in my Amherst-Tufts preview. Well, touché, my friend. George went 6-13 from the field and 7-8 from the stripe for 19 points in addition to 10 rebounds and two rejections. He was able to stay out of foul trouble, as well, which shouldn’t go overlooked given the Twin Towers with which he was forced to match up (though Hunter Sabety ’17 was far below 100 percent). As I said in the game preview, a productive George arguably makes Amherst the favorite for the NESCAC Championship. He will need to play well against Bowdoin’s seven-footer, John Swords ’15, and if the Lord Jeffs get through that game he will have another tall order if he goes against the strong Trinity frontcourt. If Wesleyan were to pull off another upset and meet Amherst in the championship George will still be an x-factor because the Cardinals’ strength is the backcourt, meaning George would have the opportunity to dominate.
Class of 2016 Player of the Year Candidates: Lucas Hausman ’16 and Connor Green ’16
Adam wrote earlier this year about the talented junior class in the NESCAC this year when Green topped 1,000 points in his career, and the class of 2016 has not slowed down, especially not these two. I think writer Peter Lindholm described it best via Twitter:
@CACSportsBlog Hausman stole Wohl's game, his POY trophy, and reports say he's about to steal his girl
Hausman has now claimed a commanding lead in the scoring race, and will almost definitely end up with the crown unless he goes ice cold this weekend. His point totals since January 24 at Colby: 24, 30, 19, 32, 21, 44, 16, 17 and 37. And he’s not a phenomenal outside shooter. He gets most of his buckets by getting into the lane, drawing contact and finishing contested shots. When he gets to the line he is nearly automatic (88.0 percent on the year). And he’s been Bowdoin’s only consistent scorer all season.
Green’s advantage is his size and ability to rebound. Johnny McCarthy ’18 and Dan Wohl ’15 are the only perimeter players with more rebounds than Green. Green also stretches the floor a little better as he’s knocking down over 40 percent of his trey balls.
Both of these guys are phenomenal players capable of taking over games, and I expect fireworks when they go at it on Saturday.
Wesleyan Forward Joe Edmonds ’16
Head Coach Joe Reilly has settled on a starting five that rarely leaves the floor. All fives of Reilly’s starters against Bates played at least 29 minutes, and for Edmonds, who has started 14 of 25 games this year, that was his third consecutive game starting and playing over 30 minutes. His two highest-scoring games have come over that stretch as well. The Cardinals essentially run out three point guards in Harry Rafferty ’17, BJ Davis ’16 and Jack Mackey ’16, so there are a lot of drive and kick opportunities, and Edmonds, as the best three point shooter on the roster, really has the ability to make an impact for the Cardinals. He did just that in the win over Bates, leading the Cards with 22 points and going 5-6 from deep.
Stock Down
Offense of the Trinity Frontcourt
Trinity was looking unbeatable recently, coupling a suddenly explosive offense with its usual lockdown D, but the Bantams put up a mediocre 66 points against a Colby team whose tallest impact player, besides Sam Willson ’16, is its point guard, Luke Westman ’16. The combination of Alex Conaway ’15, George Papadeas ’15, Shay Ajayi ’16 and Ed Ogundeko ’17 isn’t exactly known for its collective offensive skill set, and the big guys didn’t play badly on Saturday (combined 11-22 from the field), but each and every one of them had size and strength advantages over their defenders and didn’t dominate like they should have. Down the stretch Ogundeko made a big impact with 11 points in the second half, but he was the only one to make a difference. The defense is fine, and will still give the Bantams a chance to win it all, but they will need some low-post scoring to win two games next weekend.
Amherst Guard Jeff Racy ’17
Since exploding for 30 points on 10-14 three-point shooting at Conn. College on February 6, Racy is 9-27 (33.3 percent) from deep. For a 41.3 percent three-point shooter on the season, that is not so great. I had Racy as my x-factor in the Lord Jeffs’ matchup with Tufts. As it turned out they didn’t need much from Racy as the game was over before it even started, but going forward, Green and Racy are the only guys that scare opposing defenses when they rise up from beyond the arch, so Amherst needs Racy to get hot once again.
Wesleyan Point Guard Triumvirate
Mackey made it into our Stock Up section last week, and he had another fine game on Saturday against Bates (18 points, 7-18 FG, 4-12 3PT FG, 6 rebounds), but his running mates, Davis and Rafferty, were anemic on the offensive end. They’re both really quality shooters so to see them go so cold was a surprise. I have a lot of concerns for Wesleyan this weekend. They’re undersized on the perimeter, they rely on the three-point shot, they have little depth, and they don’t have a clear go-to guy that they can hand the ball to at the end of a game. Of course that’s not always necessary. I’m sure that any of the trio would be comfortable with the ball in his hands in the final seconds. But Coach Joe Reilly is leaning so heavily on this group that I doubt that they can sustain a high level of play for the 80 minutes that will be necessary to take home the crown this weekend. Furthermore, their games are too similar. Davis brings a bit more quickness and driving ability to the floor than the others, Rafferty is a lefty and a really smooth shooter with range and Mackey likes to shoot off the dribble, but when it comes down to it they are all point guards who want to score the basketball. The unconventional lineup can cause problems against some opponents, but when it doesn’t work out you can have stat lines like the combined 11-36 (30.6 percent) from the field that Mackey, Davis and Rafferty put together on Saturday.
In case you didn’t get a chance to watch all four NESCAC games today, we made a quick recap video with our analysis and thoughts on each of the games. Then at the end of the game we look forward to next weekend and the semifinal games.
Also, apologies for you having to look at Joe’s face for almost the entire video. I forgot to switch the camera views between us until the very end.
Bowdoin finished their NESCAC season on a three game winning streak against Bates, Middlebury and Tufts to jump up all the way to the #2 seed in the tournament. Williams just lost by more than 20 points at home to Wesleyan. Yet this might be the most intriguing quarterfinal game because it matches two very different styles of play against one another. Williams lives and dies on the perimeter with Dan Wohl ’15 and Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15 while Bowdoin still relies on their strong interior defense.
Last time they played:
Bowdoin jumped out to a 17-point lead as Williams scored only 23 first half points. The lead got all the way up to 20 points for the Polar Bears before Williams starting chipping away. A Ryan Kilcullen ’15 three with 0:48 left brought the Ephs to within three, but Bowdoin was able to salt the game away with free throws to win 67-60. Williams barely ever went inside and finished the game with eight made two point field goals and 12 made three point field goals. The Ephs stayed in the game by upping their defensive intensity in the second half and allowing only 27 second half points.
The rosters look somewhat different from the first time these two played, however. Keegan Pieri ’15 led Bowdoin with 20 points and 10 rebounds in the last matchup, but he is out for the season. Also, Neil Fuller ’17 was out with a leg injury, but he is now back and has played some minutes to give Bowdoin more depth in the frontcourt. Meanwhile, Rooke-Ley did not play in the first game for Williams but is fully healthy now.
Bowdoin X-factor: Center John Swords ’15
Since the 6’7″ Kilcullen is Williams’ tallest player, one might have expected for Swords to dominate in the first match-up, but he only managed four points, tied for his season low. Bowdoin still scored a lot of easy points in the paint because of Pieri but without him, Swords needs to step up. He has been more aggressive offensively since Pieri went down. He has started to put the ball on the floor one time and make a move to the basket that usually ends in a layup. Smaller defenders often times can deal with his height, but it is the length that comes along with that height which really gives defenders problems. Swords will simply go around players who try to defend him straight up. A couple of baskets early for Swords would be huge. On the other end, if Bowdoin plays man, Swords has to be able to get out on Kilcullen on the perimeter and keep the Boston College transfer from hitting too many threes. Of course, that puts him in the conundrum of being away from the basket which is where he makes the biggest impact for Bowdoin.
Williams X-Factor: Point Guard Mike Greenman ’17
We might be seeing a transformation in how Greenman plays point guard. The sophomore has never been afraid to shoot the ball and also got into the lane and turned the ball over a lot. In recent weeks, he has shot less and, more importantly, his turnovers are down. In conference play he has averaged 1.7 turnovers per game compared to 3.6 in out of conference games. Over his past seven games Greenman has a 3.5 assist/turnover ratio, far above his 1.6 ratio for the season. During that same seven game period, Greenman has scored less than 4.0 PPG and shot only 4-24 (16.7 percent) from three. Greenman knows he is struggling and is adjusting his play because of it. It was just one play, but on Tuesday against Castleton State we witnessed Greenman pass up a wide open three in order to pass to Dan Aronowitz ’17 who drove to the lane for an easy layup. He needs to keep making the right play, and if he makes a couple of early shots too? Look out.
Three Big Questions
1. How different are these teams from the last time they played?
On the surface the presence of Rooke-Ley and Fuller combined with the absence of Pieri would seem like it would have a huge effect. The truth though is that Bowdoin and Williams have played basically the same with or without those guys. Bowdoin’s conference record with Pieri was 3-1 and 4-2 without him, and they played a harder schedule after Pieri got hurt. The Ephs went 2-2 in conference without Rooke-Ley and 3-3 with him while playing harder games without him. It isn’t like those players don’t help their teams when they are on the floor, but when they are out, other players step up. For Williams that was Aronowitz, and Bowdoin has seen Matt Palecki ’16 and Jack Hewitt ’17 combine to help Bowdoin work without Pieri.
2. Can Bowdoin play zone?
Usually when a team has as many shooters as Williams does, it is unthinkable for a team to play zone against them. For Bowdoin, they might need to play zone because they don’t have personnel to stop everyone. The zone that Bowdoin plays is not a simple 2-3 zone with each player sitting in his zone. Instead, Bowdoin plays a matchup zone centered around Swords. He always stays near the basket and only leaves the paint as a last resort if an open player is going to get a three. The four other players basically float around the perimeter switching on screens and always having one player they guard. The scheme requires constant communication and no missteps on defense. On Monday, Husson burned Bowdoin at times with penetration and ball movement. The weakness of the defense is certainly in defending the three point line. If Williams starts whipping the ball around the three point line and hitting open threes, Bowdoin will have to go man.
3. How does Williams slow Lucas Hausman ’16?
Last Saturday Tufts managed to slow down Hausman simply by playing zone against Bowdoin. Williams is unlikely to take that route because they have played almost exclusively man-to-man all season. Wohl will likely get the first crack at Hausman, but Aronowitz should also draw the assignment at times. Both are good defenders and have the right combination of quickness and size to give Hausman problems in theory. No doubt Williams has spent this week dissecting all the film they have on Hausman. They know he likes to get a great first step when he drives right and LOVES to spin into a fadeaway jumper when he drives left. What makes Hausman hard to defend is that he doesn’t use pick and roll so you can only double him once he starts making a move to the basket. Limiting his chances in transition is also crucial for Williams.
What to Expect
I haven’t really even talked yet about the offensive fireworks that Wohl and Rooke-Ley regularly produce or the importance of Bryan Hurley ’15 to everything Bowdoin does. Wohl has struggled shooting the ball from the outside (30.4 percent from deep in NESCAC games). If he does guard Hausman, the outcome of that matchup very well could decide who wins NESCAC Player of the Year. Rooke-Ley is so dangerous from behind the arc that having a hand in his face often isn’t good enough. Hurley has looked more and more comfortable as the season has gone along, and Bowdoin will look to use him and Swords in pick and rolls to put pressure on the Ephs.
These two teams have very different roster makeups so each presents problems for the other. The team that is more effective in exploiting their mismatches will win. For Bowdoin, their advantage is their size inside. We covered Swords above, but the size difference extends to the power forward position where Palecki is tough to move around inside. The edge for Williams is on the perimeter obviously. They need to have everyone hitting their threes so that Bowdoin can’t key on Wohl and Rooke-Ley. Forcing turnovers and going on runs is also important for them. This might be the highest variable game because of how Williams plays. I can see a comfortable Williams win just as easily as a Bowdoin rout. In the end, I think Hausman and Hurley do enough to offset Wohl and Rooke-Ley and Bowdoin pulls out a very entertaining game.
Our usual Power Rankings writer, the esteemed Dave Peck, is busy this week with work and other endeavors so I am going to fill in for the week. Keep that in mind if these rankings look very different from the ones last week. However, I think Dave has been doing a fantastic job and have not made too many changes, though one of my decisions near the bottom might surprise you.
1. Trinity (19-5, 9-1) Last Week: 1
This Saturday will mark exactly one month since the Bantams lost a game. Trinity fell to Fisher, an NAIA school, on January 21 and has won six NESCAC games since then. Nothing much has changed since last week for them. They handled their business against Middlebury for 38 minutes, but the Panthers did make a late comeback to make things interesting. Trinity continues to get little respect nationally, as they are not ranked in the D3Hoops poll and were below Amherst and Bates in the first NCAA regional rankings.
2. Bowdoin (17-7, 7-3) Last Week: 6
The Polar Bears rocketed up the standings this weekend, and now they rocket up the Power Rankings. Plenty has been said about back-to-back NESCAC Player of the Week Lucas Hausman ’16 and his improvement this season, but one should not overlook the improved quality of play from his classmates Matt Palecki ’16 and Jake Donnelly ’16. Palecki has settled into the power forward position and is even providing some needed three point shooting, and Donnelly is also now in the starting lineup as a third guard. His contributions do not always come through on the stat sheet, but he is the best perimeter defender for Bowdoin and is the primary ball-handler when Bryan Hurley ’15 needs a rest.
3. Amherst (18-6, 6-4) Last Week: 3
The Jeffs bungled their chance to get the number two seed in the NESCAC tournament and subsequently hurt their NCAA at-large chances with a loss Sunday to Middlebury. Yet the loss does not really change our opinion of the Jeffs. Besides Connor Green ’16, nobody played well for Amherst, and there is way too much talent on the roster for that to happen again. The key for Dave Hixon will be figuring who has the hot hand and get them on the court as much as possible Saturday.
4. Bates (19-5, 7-3) Last Week: 2
The Bobcats second game against Bowdoin went completely differently than the first one which was a rout for Bates. Do not put too much stock into this loss because the Bobcats ran into the perfect storm for Bowdoin. The important thing is that they took care of business Saturday against Colby and now have a home game against Wesleyan in the first round of the NESCAC tournament. This is most likely the final home game for Bates this season, and seniors Graham Safford ’15, Adam Philpott ’15, Cam Kaubris ’15 and Billy Selmon ’15 would love to finish their final season at Alumni Gym undefeated.
5. Tufts (13-11, 6-4) Last Week: 5
It is starting to seem like Tufts has simply been treading water the last couple of weeks since Hunter Sabety ’17 got hurt. The Jumbos went 3-3 in their final six NESCAC games without him. To be fair, those three losses were all by single digits and Tufts was either winning or tied at halftime of each of them. Tom Palleschi ’16 has benefited from the extra space on the inside and has been scintillating to watch lately. However, he went cold down the stretch against Bowdoin, a big reason why Tufts could not keep up at the very end.
6. Wesleyan (16-8, 5-5) Last Week: 9
No team made a bigger statement in their two games last weekend than the Cardinals. They went from squarely on the bubble of making the tournament to the sixth seed and a chance to redeem a close lose against Bates. The Cardinals are a very unselfish, balanced team that had four players finish with 11 or more PPG over the course of the regular season. No other team did that, even though as a team Wesleyan was only the fifth highest scoring team this season.
7. Williams (15-9, 5-5) Last Week: 4
The final weekend did not treat Williams as well as they might have hoped. Wesleyan ended up blowing out Williams at Chandler Gym in what was one of the worst shooting performances for the Ephs all season. In fairness, a lot of the shots they missed seemed to rattle in and out, but the fact remains that Williams lives and dies by the three. While that makes them a terrifying opponent to play against, the chances of them having three straight great shooting games in a row to win the NESCAC tournament are long.
8. Middlebury (17-7, 4-6) Last Week: 8
I know that Middlebury did not make the playoffs, but after watching them play Amherst, you think Trinity is thankful that they are playing Colby and not Middlebury? That is no disrespect to Colby, but the Mules are a different team without Chris Hudnut ’16. The improvement of Matt St. Amour ’17 (19.6 PPG, 62.7 percent FG [32-51] in his last six games) as the year went along is an encouraging sign for a Middlebury team that will look to get the program back quickly to the high level it was performing at a few years ago.
9. Colby (13-11, 4-6) Last Week: 7
Give credit to Colby: they are fighting like crazy and having a lot of guys step up in order to stay competitive right now. Not many teams could have lost their projected starting power forward and center and still lose to Tufts and Bates by single digits. While an upset of Trinity is a longshot, it certainly is not impossible. Luke Westman ’16 and Ryan Jann ’16 are right up there as one of the top backcourts in the league. Both of them need to play superbly Saturday.
10. Hamilton (14-10, 2-8) Last Week: 10
The Continentals closed out their season with a victory over the Mules. Despite the 2-8 record, there were a lot of positives for the Continentals who had to deal with the unexpected loss of Matt Hart ’16 to transfer. Joseph Lin ’15 was one of the best stories of the season, but he suffered an unfortunate injury that cut short his campaign. On Saturday for his final home game, Conn College allowed Lin one last basket at home.
11. Conn College (7-16, 0-10) Last Week: 11
For the second time in three seasons, the Camels finished the season without a win in conference. The good news is that everyone should be back next year for Conn, barring any transfers. There appears to be a foundation for at least respectability in place in New London, but winning will not come easy for Conn. The current sophomore and freshmen classes are both big so Conn will rely on the growth of those players next year.
Going into the weekend, the biggest piece yet to be solved in the playoff puzzle was whether Middlebury or Wesleyan would take the final spot (Colby could have also fallen out under one unlikely scenario). On Friday the Cardinals breezed past Hamilton while Middlebury could not complete a miraculous comeback and fell just short to Trinity. Only a Wesleyan loss and Panther victory Sunday would send Middlebury to the playoffs. By late Saturday afternoon the playoff field was set. Wesleyan sucked out the drama from the proceedings when they opened up the second half with a 14-0 run to take a 20-point lead over Williams, eventually closing out the Ephs with a 74-52 victory. Middlebury actually finished the season on a high note with a nice win over Amherst, but their fate had already been sealed.
Stock Up
Point Guard Jack Mackey ’16 (Wesleyan)
If you look at his statistics from the weekend, it seems like Mackey had his normal productive if somewhat cursory weekend. That would miss the fact that he scored 13 straight points for Wesleyan in the second half when Williams tried to mount a comeback. More importantly, it would miss the defense that Mackey played on the Williams guards. Mackey was a big part in holding Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15 to six points. Mackey is a tenacious and physical defender. Though he does not use his quickness very often on the offensive end, he has good lateral quickness which makes it hard for opponents to get into the lane against him. Mackey is a big reason why Wesleyan finished the season ranked third in the league in scoring defense with 64.0 PPG allowed.
Shooting Guard Lucas Hausman ’16 (Bowdoin)
Hausman was absolutely on fire Friday night tying the Bowdoin single game record with 44 points. He went 20-25 from the field while scoring in almost every way imaginable: fast break layups, fall away jumpers off of his trademark spin move, and threes with a hand in his face. In fact, the only way he didn’t score was from the foul line where he went 0-1 on the night. Yet on the season he has made the most free throws in the NESCAC. Hausman cooled off Saturday against the Tufts zone, but he still scored 16 points as Bowdoin won to secure a home playoff game. Dan Wohl ’15 has been the favorite to win Player of the Year honors for most of the season, but Hausman is making a worthy late charge. Because the NESCAC tournament is also included when deciding who will win NESCAC honors, the award might come down to how Hausman and Wohl play against each other when Williams plays at Bowdoin in the first round.
Trinity
The Bantams already had the number one seed sewn up before the weekend, but they still were big winners because of two things. First, they went up and controlled the game against Middlebury. The bench, led by Rick Naylor ’16 and Ed Ogundeko ’15, had 29 of the team’s 39 first half points. Trinity’s 90 points in the game was a high for them in conference. The second thing that went well was Colby finishing with the eight seed. The Mules are still dangerous without Chris Hudnut ’16, but they simply do not have the size that Trinity has inside. The Mules are definitely a preferable matchup for Trinity compared to Middlebury or Wesleyan. I’m not saying that Colby can’t get hot shooting the ball and shock the Bantams this weekend, but it will take a heck of an effort to do it.
Stock Down
Amherst’s Sense of Urgency
Going into Sunday, Amherst knew a win got them the two seed while a loss dropped them all the way to the five seed and a trip to Tufts in the first round. That didn’t seem to show as Middlebury led wire-to-wire, and Amherst never really made a run. Maybe it was the delayed start time because the referees were late or that Amherst lacked somebody who could rally the team and tell them that this was a must-win. Whatever the case, the win cost the Jeffs and deprives us of a third Williams vs. Amherst matchup in the first round of the playoffs. Instead, Amherst has to take on Tufts, a team that blitzed them in a 27-point victory. Granted, the outcome is very unlikely to be the same because Hunter Sabety ’17 is hurt, but the Jeffs did themselves no favors this weekend.
Forward Marcus Delpeche ’17 (Bates)
Though we often lump them in as one unit, the Delpeches are in fact two different basketball players. Marcus has played slightly more and put up bigger numbers than Malcolm overall this season. Against Colby and Bowdoin, Marcus scored 7.0 PPG, not that far below his 9.7 PPG average on the season. What was concerning was that he had only four rebounds against Bowdoin and ONE against Colby. Bates still managed to do okay on the boards as a team. Don’t be fooled by Bowdoin having eight more rebounds than Bates on Friday. The reason for that was not Bates’ rebounding but their defense: since Bowdoin made 63.5 percent of their shots, there were less defensive rebounds for Bates to grab. Still, Marcus Delpeche should be getting way more than five rebounds over two games. Hopefully a return to Alumni Gym will get him going.
Williams
Saturday was senior day in Williamstown for Ryan Kilcullen ’15, Rooke-Ley and Wohl, but the day did not end the way supporters of the Ephs were hoping. The blowout loss to Wesleyan means Williams finishes the year at 5-5, seventh in the league standings. For all intents and purposes, this year’s team was the product of Mike Maker, the former Williams coach. He recruited all of the players on the roster, and though Kevin App changed some things schematic-wise, the team retained the same up-tempo three point heavy style. The talent still on the roster was properly recognized as one of the most talented in the league before the season began, but they have been inconsistent all season. While they blew out Middlebury, they also lost to Hamilton and struggled to put away Conn College. There is still a distinct possibility they get hot and make a run to win the NESCAC title. If not, then the season will end far short of where it did a season ago. The Ephs lose three starters in Rooke-Ley, Wohl and Kilcullen after this year. None of their juniors this year saw very significant minutes. This is going to be a very young team next season led by Dan Aronowitz ’17 and Mike Greenman ’17. The heavy lifting of the rebuilding process is just beginning for App.
With Bowdoin thrashing my very own Panthers last weekend, my only chance to earn any bragging rights this winter over Adam is if I can thoroughly annihilate him in fantasy basketball. I had been cultivating a nice lead in the points, assists and rate categories, but as of last week blocks, steals and three pointers made seemed to be slipping out of reasonable grasp. With that in mind, and the loss to injury of two of my skilled big men, Hunter Sabety ’17 and Chris Hudnut ’16, I was forced to make some roster decisions. I would have loved to add sharpshooter Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15, but Adam had waiver priority and beat me to the punch, but I was satisfied to add Connor Green ’16 and Matt Daley ’16. I didn’t end up playing Daley this weekend, but I’m hoping for a big week from him in the final weekend coming up. Adam was forced to sit his best rebounds/blocks contributor, John Swords ’15, who had only one game, which gave me some hope that I could close the gap in those categories. Here’s how our lineups shook out:
Lord of the ‘CAC (Adam)
Lin and Tonic (Joe)
Position
Player
Player
Guard
G. Safford
J. Starks
Guard
D. Wohl
L. Westman
Guard
H. Rooke-Ley
C. Green
Forward
A. Santos
E. Ogundeko
Forward
D. Sinnickson
D. George
Forward
Mar. Delpeche
H. Merryman
Forward
S. Ajayi
Z. Pavlin
Bench
J. Brown
J. Lin
Bench
J. McCarthy
M. Daley
Bench
J. Swords
L. Hausman
I rolled out a lineup with a little bit less scoring potential than usual. Of course, Lucas Hausman ’16 only had one game, but I also kept Joseph Lin ’15 on the bench who is among the league’s best at scoring. However, I felt good about the matchups I had. Two of my guards this week are very good rebounders, and I was hoping for a big week from beyond the arch from Jaquann Starks ’15, Green and Hunter Merryman ’15. Zuri Pavlin ’17 stepped up huge for me with 21 rebounds against Trinity. My strategy worked on the boards, but it was a cold week for my squad from deep, aside from Green who netted 10 of my 15 three pointers:
Category
Lord of the ‘CAC
Lin and Tonic
Points
235
178
Assists
26
18
Rebounds
100
116
Steals
7
13
Blocks
6
9
FT%
87.7% (64/73)
66.1% (37-56)
FG%
46.2% (73/158)
42.3% (63-149)
3PT Made
27
15
While I took over the advantage this week, the percentage gaps shrunk considerably, which makes me nervous. It will be tough to hang onto the slim margins I’ve created, but it’s always better to be ahead in a tight race than behind. Here are the composite standings:
The Maine triumvirate of Colby, Bates and Bowdoin combined on the weekend to go 4-0 at home. Behind hot shooting from Ryan Jann ’16 who finished with 26 points, the Mules beat Middlebury for their first win without Chris Hudnut ’16. Then on Sunday Bowdoin blitzed their way to an easy win over the Panthers to drop Middlebury to 3-5 in the NESCAC.
Meanwhile, Bates’ vaunted home-court advantage once again took center stage as the Bobcats pulled out close wins over Williams and Hamilton. The wins bring the Bobcats’ home record to 12-0 and 6-0 in NESCAC play. While you have probably heard all about how Alumni Gym rattles opponents, Colby and Bowdoin also boast great home records. Colby is 7-2 overall and 2-2 in the NESCAC at home, and this season has seen a resurgence in student attendance in Waterville. Bowdoin does not have as many students at their games (though I am one of the proud few), but the Polar Bears are 6-1 overall and 3-0 in the NESCAC when they play in Brunswick.
Of the three losses between them, two of them came at the hands of one of the other with Colby beating Bowdoin in Brunswick in December and the Polar Bears returning the favor in Waterville a few weeks ago. So the only team that has managed to come from out of state and beat a Maine school is Williams which beat Colby on January 17.
Stock Up
Center John Swords ’15 (Bowdoin)
As the only returning player from the All-NESCAC First Team, expectations were high for Swords coming into the season, but he has fallen short of them on the offensive end. Sunday was the Swords that Bowdoin fans were hoping for. The seven footer scored 20 points on 10-13 shooting, and at least five of his baskets came on dunks. Swords attacked from the very beginning of the game, forcing Chris Churchill ’15 to pick up two early fouls. He was not afraid to put the ball on the floor and go to the hoop, something that he has been hesitant to do for long stretches this season. He also took it personal when he got called for an offensive charge drawn by Matt Daley ’16 and attacked Daley the next time he got the ball down low. It was only one game, but if Swords continues to play like he did on Sunday, Bowdoin will be difficult for teams to handle.
Shooting Guard Rick Naylor ’16 (Trinity)
Sometimes it is hard to pick out specific players on Trinity who are difference makers beyond Jaquann Starks ’16. That isn’t meant to insult the ability of anyone on the Bantam roster, but they are so balanced that picking out individuals is difficult. Naylor is certainly a role player averaging 5.8 PPG for the season, but he has come up big in recent weeks. First against Bowdoin he carried Trinity down the stretch on offense, and on Friday he helped Trinity outlast a determined Wesleyan squad. He went 5-6 from three on his way to a team high 17 points. On offense, Naylor is pretty much a straight shooter with 63 percent of his made shots coming from deep. In conference play he is shooting 54.5 percent from three, the second highest percentage in the league. On the other end, Naylor fits perfectly into the hard-nosed style Trinity plays. Despite averaging only 20.6 MPG, he has fouled out of four games so far this season, the fourth most in the NESCAC this season.
Guard Connor Green ’16 (Amherst)
Not that Green’s stock was necessarily low, but it has sky rocketed recently as the Lord Jeffs have started to look more like the perennial title contenders that we are used to seeing. Over the last four games, Green has scored at least 24 points three times and thrice snagged double digit rebounds. Last week we handicapped the Player of the Year race and Green came in with the fourth best odds to win the award. If we ranked these players again today Green would probably have the second best odds and the gap between Green and favorite Dan Wohl ’15 would be much smaller than it was then. Amherst is playing much better of late, blowing out some of the NESCAC’s bottom feeders and a couple tough Maine teams. It took awhile for Coach Dave Hixon to work out the rotation, but he seems to have found a serviceable point man in Reid Berman ’17 and a reliable bench scorer in Jeff Racy ’17. The Lord Jeffs are dangerous right now and Green is only elevating his game as the season goes on.
Stock Down
Hamilton’s Luck
Honestly, I feel terrible for the Continentals. They have played better than their 1-7 record would indicate. On Saturday Hamilton almost pulled off the upset at Bates. A layup from Joe Pucci ’18 put Hamilton up 71-66 with 1:36 to go, but Bates scored the final seven points to storm back for the win. For the Continentals, it was merely the latest close loss. Six of their seven losses in conference have been by single digits. It is a shame, too, because they play a fun, uptempo brand of basketball with an eclectic crew. Peter Kazickas ’15 is lights out shooting the ball, and he also rocks the best ‘mun’ (man bun. It is a hairstyle I swear) in the NESCAC. Ajani Santos ’16 has a nice post game, and Joseph Lin ’15 is one of the most clever players I have seen. Because of tie-breakers, Hamilton is already eliminated from the NESCAC tournament. We knew Hamilton would miss the transferred Matt Hart, but this group exceeded expectations even if the final records don’t show it.
Clarity
Remember when I said that this weekend was going to go a long way in figuring out the NESCAC picture? Yeah, well I lied about that. Going into next weekend, the number of scenarios that can end up happening are endless. Trinity will host a quarter-final game, Bates will host for sure as long as they win one of their games this weekend, and Amherst will host for sure if they win against Middlebury. If those three host, then the winner of Tufts-Bowdoin will host the fourth game. Unless Colby or Williams goes 2-0 on the weekend and Tufts beats Bowdoin, then the Ephs or Mules would host because they both own the tiebreaker over Tufts. If Colby, Williams and Tufts are all 6-4 then Williams would host because they went 2-0 against those teams, but if Bates loses both games then there could be a four-way tie…OK we give up. Personally I am rooting for the scenario where Bates and Amherst go winless for the weekend, Tufts beats Bowdoin, and Williams and Colby go 2-0. That would mean that all six of those teams would finish at 6-4.
Middlebury Defense
There were some questions about the quality of Middlebury’s competition at the beginning of the year, but nevertheless their domination was impressive enough for us to rank them at the top of our initial power rankings, and a big part of that decision was the Panthers’ commitment to defense. Coach Jeff Brown challenged his guys to be the best defense in the country this season, and for a good chunk of the year the Panthers were ranked in the top five nationally in field goal percentage defense. In Middlebury’s first 13 games, during which stretch they started 13-0, they allowed 70 points only twice and both were easy victories. In the subsequent 11 games, opponents have scored 70 points seven times and Middlebury has gone 7-5. This weekend Colby and Bowdoin combined to shoot 47.3 percent from the field against the Panthers. Even Jake Brown ’17, possibly the best perimeter defender in the NESCAC, struggled against the athletic Lucas Hausman ’16 on Sunday. If Middlebury is going to right the ship (and even make the NESCAC tournament), they will need to get back to playing good defense.
The penultimate weekend of the NESCAC schedule should clear up the logjam in the middle of the conference. Only a game and half separates teams 2-9 right now, meaning that Colby, currently not even making the NESCAC tournament, would very likely be the #2 seed if they won their final three conference games. Now, that isn’t likely to happen, but it just goes to show that the standings are a mess right now. This might be the weekend when teams sort themselves out and some wannabe contenders reveal themselves as pretenders.
With the NESCAC tournament right around the corner, teams are jostling to get one of the top four spots in order to host a first round game. Any team that goes 2-0 this weekend has a good chance of accomplishing just that.
Three Players to Watch
1. Shooting Guard Mike Boornazian ’16 (Bates): Boornazian might be the most underrated player in the NESCAC. He is capable of guarding every position besides center because of his exceptional length. This weekend will be a treat with Boornazian tasked with slowing down Player of the Year favorite Dan Wohl ’15. The two are physically very similar: 6’5″ guards who are fluid enough to handle the ball. Boornazian is also no slouch on the offensive end. He only shoots 39.8 percent from the field to average 14.8 PPG, but he is crucial for taking pressure off of Graham Safford ’15. He can act as a secondary ball-handler when needed also. On Tuesday Safford sat out in order to rest, and Boornazian had one of his best games of the season finishing with 26 points. He might be overlooked at the end of the year for league awards, but Boornazian is critical for the Bobcats.
2. Power Forward Drew Madsen ’17 (Tufts): Per the Tufts student newspaper, Hunter Sabety ’17 sustained what appeared to be a serious knee injury that will keep him out for the rest of the year. If that is the case, then it is time to get familiar with Madsen, the talented 6’7″ backup to Sabety. He was already a part of the rotation before the injury, and now he will see his minutes climb even more. He has not put up tremendous per minute stats in his limited time so do not expect him to simply replace Sabety. However, he is a big body with enough skill to make plays. Given the ability of Tom Palleschi ’17 to make jumpers, Madsen should consider only ever leaving the paint when he needs to avoid a three second call. The rest of the time he should be battling position for any offensive rebound. Sabety, for all of his offensive prowess, was not a fantastic defender, so Madsen could offset his lack of offensive skill that way.
3. Shooting Guard Ryan Jann ’16 (Colby): The Mules started NESCAC play 3-0, and for a brief span they were at the top of the NESCAC standings. Since then they have lost their last four NESCAC games and found out Chris Hudnut ’16 is out with a knee injury for the rest of the year. Luke Westman ’16 is a great player, but his lack of a jump shot means he is not capable of being a go-to scorer. So now the sharpshooter Jann is the number one option for Colby. He exploded for 27 against Trinity, and he looked comfortable finding space to get his shot off. He has also gotten better as a distributor this year, but it is his scoring that will be most needed. The Mules need one more win to get into the NESCAC tournament, and Jann will have to shoot them there.
This is the NbN grudge match between myself and Joe. Last season saw Middlebury pull out a close victory because Coach Tim Gilbride called a timeout when he didn’t have one after Bowdoin tied the game with under five seconds remaining. The two rosters look very different than they did a year ago with Dylan Sinnickson ’15, Hunter Merryman ’15 and John Swords ’15 the only starters returning. How Middlebury defends Lucas Hausman ’16 could decide the game. The Panthers love to push the pace, but Hausman is exceptional in transition, even though as a team Bowdoin does not like to go fast because of their short rotation. Jake Brown ’17 usually takes on opponents’ point guards, but he might guard Hausman for stretches because of his quickness. Though Matt St. Amour ’17 is a good team defender who draws a lot of charges, he is still not as quick as he was before his ACL injury.
Given how Connor Green ’16 went off last weekend against the Polar Bears, Dylan Sinnickson ’15 could be primed for a big day. After struggling somewhat by his lofty standards in conference play, Sinnickson has averaged 25.0 PPG and 15.5 RPG in his last two games. He and Brown should look to attack John Swords ’15 at the basket because of the depleted Bowdoin backcourt, but an underrated improvement from Swords has been his ability to stay out of foul trouble in nearly every game, only fouling out once all season. The loser of this game will all but certainly be forced to go on the road in the first round of the NESCAC tournament.
2. Friday 7:00 PM: Williams (12-7, 3-3) at Bates (15-4, 4-2)
The Bobcats are a perfect 10-0 at home this season, and their fans are sure to come out for the final home games of the season this weekend. Beating them in Alumni Gymnasium, especially in what could be the seniors’ final home games, is going to be a tall task. Even though Williams is only 3-3, they just smacked Middlebury in their only game last weekend. Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15 looks 100 percent again after missing time due to a hand injury.
We all know Williams is going to play with Dan Aronowitz ’17 as an undersized power forward and Ryan Kilcullen ’15 at center, so the question becomes whether Bates coach Jon Furbush is capable of playing two big men for most of the game. He will want to keep both Marcus and Malcolm Delpeche ’17 on the floor for most of the game in order to control the boards and get easy baskets. However, Aronowitz will look to attack using his combination of shooting and slashing against a bigger defender. Bates can also easily go small with Adam Philpott ’15 acting as power forward. The chess match between the two youngest coaches in the NESCAC, Furbush and Kevin App, will be fun. App has played a tight rotation all season, but he could mix things up and play Darrias Sime ’16 or Edward Flynn ’16 for longer minutes.
Ultimately, a great deal of Williams’ games come down to how they shoot the ball. Because they shoot so many threes, when a lot of them go in they are hard to beat. Bates will try to make up for that by destroying the Ephs on the glass and sticking to shooters as closely as possible. This is going to be the most fun game to watch because of the possibility for offensive fireworks and a first rate atmosphere.
In the same year that the University of Virginia is in the Top Five behind a suffocating defense, the Bantams are on top of the NESCAC in much the same way. By the way, Jaquann Starks ’16 has been absolutely en fuego from beyond the arc recently. In NESCAC play he is shooting the third best percentage from deep, 56.2 percent, while making the third most threes per game, 2.6. In fact, he is shooting a higher percentage from three than he is from the field. Though Trinity wants him to continue to get into the lane, they would prefer he simply continue to nail shots from downtown. Though we have harped on how Trinity’s balance means different guys step up every game, Starks is the one guy they need to perform. In the three Bantam loses in 2015, Starks has averaged an anemic 3.0 PPG, well below his 13.4 PPG season average.
Wesleyan needs to not back down from the physical presence of Trinity. An underrated part of the Bantams defense is how uncomfortable they make things on the perimeter for teams, so it helps that Wesleyan can rely on BJ Davis ’16, Jack Mackey ’16 or Harry Rafferty ’17 to handle the ball. Davis in particular is adept at getting into the lane, and even if he isn’t finishing amongst the big men, it could stretch the Trinity defense enough to get Mackey open looks. Both teams will be fine with a slow plodding pace. That should keep the game in the 50s, meaning that this game might come down to offensive execution in the final five minutes. There the edge goes to Trinity, who, even though they don’t play great offense overall, manage to find ways to grind out points at the end of the game. When these two met last year, Trinity led by about five points for most of the second half, and Wesleyan was never able to get over the hump.
The game is in Middletown, but the Bantams are hoping a road win helps them secure home court for the NESCAC tournament. Trinity’s home court advantage is not significant, but the Bantams would still love the #1 seed to have the opportunity to host the NESCAC semi-finals and final if they get past their first round opponent. If they beat the Cardinals, they will be able to taste it.
With about a week left in the regular season, the league has begun to stabilize, relative to the amount of fluctuation the NESCAC has experienced this year. This past week we saw how middle of the road teams stacked up against the best, as well as a continued fight put up by the lowest rank, proving once again that the gap from the best to the worst is slim.
1. Trinity (16-5, 6-1) Last Week: 1
After two straight wins against threatening Colby and Bowdoin, the Bantams have a three game win streak, all of which came against conference teams. Trinity will finish its season on the road, taking on Wesleyan, Conn College, and Middlebury. Assuming all things go as planned, and the Trinity defense continues to shut down its opponents, the Bantams are in a good position to take the No. 1 seed headed into tournament play.
2. Amherst (15-5, 4-3) Last Week: 4
Amherst, like Trinity, thwarted the efforts of Colby and Bowdoin at the end of last week to give them their first winning record in conference play all season. Connor Green ’16 exploded for 33 against Bowdoin, and in the past three games he has averaged 20.6 PPG. The Lord Jeffs also have Wesleyan, Conn College, and Middlebury to close out conference play. Depending on how Trinity does, it’ll be interesting to use these last three games as a way to compare Amherst and Trinity going into the playoffs.
3. Bates (15-4, 4-2) Last Week: 6
Recalling last week’s rankings, Bates had just come off two tough losses to Trinity and Amherst, but rebounded with a win versus Tufts. Since then the Bobcats have extended their streak with wins against Wesleyan and Conn. The wins were made possible by their stingy defense. Here’s where Bates stands- they’ll finish out their conference play against four teams ranked lower than them in our rankings and the standings. That being said, the final push will be crucial for Graham Safford ’15 to round up his troops and get them ready for playoff basketball.
4. Tufts (10-9, 4-2) Last Week: 3
Tufts drops two spots from last week after they lost Saturday against Wesleyan. The Jumbos are still in a good spot as the tournament approaches, though the loss of Hunter Sabety ’17 could be devastating. What stands out the most with this team was the streak they had in mid-January, where they consecutively beat Middlebury, Amherst, and Trinity, allowing an average of only 57 PPG in the three game stretch. Tufts can put it all together in a short period of time against the top teams in the league. Why? Defense.
5. Middlebury (15-4, 3-3) Last Week: 2
Last week the Panthers could only grab one out of two in conference play, falling to Williams 87-62 while beating Hamilton in a tough 82-77 overtime game. Given the struggles that Hamilton has had all season, what does an overtime win say about the Panthers? Hamilton has been giving teams their all down the stretch, so maybe this is yet another example of the small margin between the top and bottom. Regardless, Middlebury still has its work cut out for them as they still have to play Trinity and Amherst, two teams ranked above them.
6. Williams (12-7, 3-3) Last Week: 7
Williams jumps up a spot after their decisive 87-62 win against Middlebury. The Ephs’ offense has been close to the top all year averaging 76.4 points per game, but they’ve struggled considerably on defense. That is why they remain below Middlebury, despite their emphatic victory over the Panthers. The Ephs have a huge road weekend coming up against Bates and Tufts. You can bet that Daniel Wohl ’15 won’t go down without a fight, seeing as he leads the league in PPG with 19.9.
7. Bowdoin (14-6, 4-3) Last Week: 5
Last week Bowdoin was posed with the difficult task of playing Trinity and Amherst in back-to-back road games. A loss to the Bantams 67-66 in OT was a heartbreaker that made it even more difficult to face off against Amherst. These two losses hurt Bowdoin and surely put them down in the rankings, but then again, who else besides Tufts has been able to handle the one-two punch of the Bantams and Lord Jeffs. With guard Lucas Hausman’s ’16 scoring dominance (ranked No. 3 in PPG with 19.0), along with the recent play of John Swords ’15 and Bryan Hurley ’15, Bowdoin is still in a position to fight with the best.
8. Wesleyan (14-6, 3-3) Last Week: 9
The Cardinals split their last two games, losing a close one against Bates 74-66 but coming back the following day to take down Tufts. Wesleyan has a tough stretch ahead of them with Trinity, Amherst, and Williams all on their schedule. As of late, even Hamilton has shown it can disrupt any opponent it faces, which makes things a little more difficult to a Wesleyan team that is on the cusp of the playoffs.
9. Colby (12-9, 3-4) Last Week: 8
Colby, who a few weeks ago was in a position to take a high seed in the NESCAC quickly dropped three straight to Bowdoin, Amherst, and Trinity, putting them in a tough spot to finish out the season. Not only that, but Middlebury, Tufts, and Bates all remain on their schedule, which makes for a tough final stretch. The Mules’ defense has been struggling recently, making it even more difficult for even their third ranked offense to consistently carry the load. We’ve all heard it before: defense wins championships, and a last place ranking in that category does not bode well for Colby.
10. Hamilton (13-7, 1-5) Last Week: 10
Not much has changed for Hamilton since last week. They still have only one win against NESCAC opponents, but once again they’ve proved that they’re not going to fold easily. Last week the Continentals battled with the Panthers of Middlebury, eventually falling short in an 82-77 overtime loss. Forward Peter Kazickas ’15 led the charge with 21 points while guard Joseph Lin ’15 dished a season-high nine assists in the loss. Neither their defense nor their offense has been exceptionally bad or good this season (6th ranked defense, 8th ranked offense) ; they just have not been able to put two good halves of basketball together.
11. Conn College (7-12, 0-6) Last Week: 11
Conn’s struggles continue after losing their eighth straight against Mitchell. Offense has been a problem for the Camels all season, and their last four NESCAC opponents (Amherst, Trinity, Williams, Hamilton) won’t make this season go by any faster. Forward Zuri Pavlin ’17 has proven he is capable of being Conn’s go-to guy in the coming years after a 31 point game against Mitchell. In addition, he’s ranked second in the league in RPG with 10.9. Definitely a force to be reckoned with in the future, Conn just needs to find him a little more support in the backcourt.