Tag: Tom Palleschi

Move Over, Jumbos: Power Ranks 1/27

Shay Ajayi '16 has his Bantams rolling off of seven straight wins and a 5-0 NESCAC record. (Courtesy of David B. Newman/Trinity Athletics)
Shay Ajayi ’16 has his Bantams rolling off of seven straight wins and a 5-0 NESCAC record. (Courtesy of David B. Newman/Trinity Athletics)

There was a big shake up in this week’s Power Rankings, but that’s become commonplace in the NbN ranks. Why? Because of the five rankings we’ve put out (including this one), we’ve had four different authors. We apologize for the inconsistency, but not for the knowledge.

1. Trinity (14-4, 5-0, Last week: 3)

The last NESCAC team standing a year ago in the NCAA tournament, this year’s edition of the Bantams might be even better. They’ve improved on the offensive end (76.9 ppg vs. 69.6 ppg in 2014-15), and they’re still fierce on defense (36.7 field goal percentage allowed, best in the NESCAC and the nation) despite losing top perimeter defender Hart Gliedman ’15 and center George Papadeas ’15. Eg Ogundeko ’17 is the team’s most improved player. Always a force defensively, Ogundeko has improved his touch by leaps and bounds and is averaging 14.0 points per game. Oh by the way, the Bants are on a seven-game winning streak.

2. Amherst (14-3, 4-1, Last week: 2)

The LJs have had a rough stretch recently, losing two of three, including an out-of-conference blowout loss to Wesleyan and Colby’s only NESCAC win. Nevertheless, Amherst’s talent hasn’t declined, and they have a history of winning. All of the pieces are there. Two point guards, one capable of scoring in bunches, the other a great distributor. Maybe the best perimeter defender in the league in Johnny McCarthy ’18. Connor Green ’16, the seasoned vet. A great rim protector in David George ’17. The best three-pointer shooter in Division-III, per NCAA.com through January 25. And some more solid bench pieces. They’ll be just fine.

3. Wesleyan (15-4, 3-3, Last week: 6)

Welcome back to the top, Wesleyan. The Cardinals fell victim early on to two things: injuries, and NESCAC rules. NESCAC teams are often at a disadvantage early in the season because of the limited contact they get with coaches before firing it up for real. Hence, the season-opening loss to Lyndon St. Then the Cards rattled off 11 straight wins, and though they’ve only gone 4-3 since January 8 against Middlebury, all of those games were against NESCAC teams, and there were no gimmes. Wesleyan played Amherst twice, Trinity, Tufts and Middlebury over that stretch, and when they drew Hamilton and Bates they took care of business as they should. They still haven’t totally found their mojo. As documented many times here, they went through one of the ugliest seven game three-point shooting stretches basketball has ever seen at any level, but they made 13-23 last game against Bates. Coach Joe Reilly just needs to find the right rotation. Should he go back to what worked a year ago with a six-man rotation and Harry Rafferty ’17 and Joe Edmonds ’16 being big factors? Maybe, but Kevin O’Brien ’19, PJ Reed ’18 and Nathan Krill ’18 have become so important this year. I think all of that will work itself out, and the Cardinals have an easier NESCAC slate ahead.

4. Middlebury (11-7, 4-1, Last week: 5)

It’s been a meteoric rise through the ranks for the Panthers, and it makes my heart swell. I won’t lie, I had my doubts after they lost their two best scorers from last year’s team. However, I think in some ways we’re seeing an addition by subtraction scenario. Middlebury a year ago relied on Dylan Sinnickson ’15 and Hunter Merryman ’15 to find a way to shoot them to victory. Now, their team is more balanced and contributions are coming from all over the place. They have two great point guards, and on any night one or the other could tack on double digit points. Matt St. Amour ’17 is obviously a top-notch scorer, and the biggest strength he has that goes overlooked is how good he is at getting to the foul line and scoring from there (though his percentage from there so far is below his standards, he has the third most attempts in the NESCAC). It’s been a revolving front court door, but Coach Jeff Brown is getting solid minutes from whoever steps on the floor, and Middlebury fans will continue to pray that center Matt Daley ’16 is healthy enough to give 25 or so minutes come playoff time.

5. Tufts (13-4, 4-2, Last week: 1)

They have a couple of stars, but I think it’s now fairly evident that they’re not terribly deep. We knew that Tom Palleschi ’17 staying in the game was key already, but that became really evident against Middlebury. Foul trouble kept Palleschi out for much of the second half, and the Panthers actually crushed Tufts on the boards (53-44). Ryan Spadaford ’16 was also out for that game, though, which factors in. The fact is, though, that outside of the starting five, there’s not much of a scoring threat, which is why, I think, you see the starting five from Tufts playing a big chunk of minutes – Spadaford is playing the last at 23.8 mpg. Health will be critical, as will someone stepping up from the bench who can put the ball in the hoop.

6. Colby (12-6, 1-4, Last week: 10)

Colby is a bit like Tufts, only with, in my opinion, a slightly lower ceiling despite more experience. They rely heavily on their starting five, as well, and they absolutely must stay healthy. The Mules went 1-2 in NESCAC games without center Chris Hudnut ’16 over the past week or so (although the win was against Amherst, go figure). Everyone looks good to go as it stands today, and if Colby had pulled off the win over a very good Husson team last night I was considering putting them as high as third in these rankings, despite the 1-4 conference mark. Alas, they couldn’t finish the job, but I still think this team is on the rise.

7. Conn College (12-6, 3-3, Last week: 7)

Another team – and a program – on the rise is the Conn College Camels. Do-it-all man Zuri Pavlin ’17 has seen his numbers decline, but that’s only because he has some really good players around him for the first time. PG Tyler Rowe ’19 is the truth, and in case you missed it he made it into Sports Illustrated in the Faces in the Crowd section a couple weeks ago. Forward David Labossiere ’19 has been just as impressive in his debut campaign. The unsung hero of the group is forward Dan Janel ’17 who has really stepped up his game. Conn’s website doesn’t list weights, but trust me, he’s thick, and he’s ripping down 6.4 boards per game in under 20.o mpg. Pretty nice stats.

8. Williams (12-6, 3-3, Last week: 4)

It’s hard to explain, but I just don’t get a great feeling in my gut about the Ephs this year. Believe me, I will never count them out until it’s all said and done, but I don’t think they have enough to make a deep run in the NESCAC tournament. They hung with Trinity and Middlebury but ultimately lost, and tonight’s game against Amherst will be a big statement one. The loss of point guard Mike Greenman ’17 was unfortunate, because the man that I think will be the best point guard on the roster, Bobby Casey ’19, isn’t quite ready for the limelight, though he hasn’t played badly. Kyle Scadlock ’19 is fun to watch, though, and this team could be electric next year. I hope that Coach Kevin App can get some of his big men, namely Michael Kempton ’19 and Jake Porath ’19, some valuable experience so that there is a center in place to take over for Edward Flynn ’16, otherwise the four-out-one-in system will have to change.

9. Bowdoin (8-7, 1-4, Last week: 9)

I guess losing center John Swords ’15 was a bigger loss than we could have anticipated. Lucas Hausman ’16 and Jack Simonds ’19 are doing everything they can, but it’s not enough. No one else is in double figures on offense, and they’re struggling on defense. I’ll stop here, because I don’t like to make Adam upset.

10. Bates (9-9, 2-4, Last week: 8)

At 2-4 in the NESCAC, they’re still very much alive for a playoff spot, but they have their question marks. Mike Boornazian ’16 is scoring a lot of points, but it’s also taking him a lot of shots to do it. Can someone step up and help him put the ball in the basket? If they can, pairing that with their ability to put two strong rim protectors down low could make for a tough team to beat. After all, this is almost the same team as the one that made an NCAA run last year, albeit one very big difference in the subtraction of Graham Safford ’15.

11. Hamilton (9-9, 0-5, Last week: 11)

We’re sort of treading water with the Continentals right now. Take out the Tufts game, and Hamilton has lost by an average of 5.75 ppg to NESCAC teams, which means that they’re competitive but just no quite able to close the gap. This freshman class is getting a great deal of experience, though. Peter Hoffmann ’19, Andrew Groll ’19 and Michael Grassey ’19 make up a great core, and getting a few NESCAC wins would be huge for their development.

No Rest for the Weary: Saturday Preview 1/23

Williams has to wait until tomorrow for their showdown against MIddlebury. (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)
Williams has to wait until tomorrow for their showdown against MIddlebury. (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)

Just about every game last night carried with it an exciting storyline. Wesleyan toppled a Top-25 team for the second game in a row. Trinity barely snuck by Colby, dropping the Mules to 0-4 in NESCAC play. Conn won again, and with three wins are probably just one more victory away from guaranteeing a playoff bid. Amherst took care of business versus Bowdoin – no matter how great Lucas Hausman ’16 is, the Polar Bears don’t have enough weapons to compete. Williams over Hamilton was the one game that went pretty much as expected and told us very little about either team. Today’s games carry just as much weight and intrigue.

Tufts at Conn College, 1:00 PM, New London, CT

Tufts and Conn are teams with identical records going in opposite directions, though to be fair they started at opposite ends of the spectrum. Tufts has now lost two OT games to Middlebury and Wesleyan, while Conn continues to win close game after close game. The Jumbos looked hectic in the OT period against Wesleyan, marking the second overtime period where Tufts fell apart at the seams. Vinny Pace ’18 on three occasions in the overtime found himself in the air with no idea where to pass it. Tom Palleschi ’17 missed an ugly three. And there was no coordination on offense as the seconds ticked away.

That being said, the Jumbos have all the talent in the world and will be tough to defend. On the opposite end, Conn PG Tyler Rowe ’19 has emerged as a future star. The matchup between him and Tarik Smith ’17 will be a great one. Still, when I look at every position in the lineup, the Jumbos seem to have the edge. Conn’s best chance will be to do some work in the frontcourt between Zuri Pavlin ’17 and Dan Janel ’17, because Tufts lacks frontcourt depth.

Prediction: Tufts 81 – Conn 78

Bates at Wesleyan, 3:00 PM, Middletown, CT

The Cards look to be figuring it out, but let’s not forget that one week ago they were coming off of a 26-point loss to Amherst and looked like a ship without a rudder. They have not fixed their biggest issue – three-point shooting. The Cardinals have made just 12 of their last 80 (15.0 percent) attempts dating back to that loss to Amherst, and 31 of their last 146 attempts (21.2 percent). Against Tufts last night Wesleyan shot 3-21 (14.3 percent) from three point land, 13-27 (48.1 percent) from the free throw line, and turned the ball over 22 times.

Yet somehow, the Cards won, and surprisingly it was by dominating the frontcourt. Joseph Kuo ’17 and Rashid Epps ’16 are known commodities, but Nathan Krill ’18 has started to play some important minutes. This year’s Wesleyan team is deep, a far cry from last year’s squad that ran only six deep. They’ve gone through a lot of growing pains, but I think they’re going to be better than last year’s team once they get through the kinks, and this game should be a comfortable win because Bates is not playing well right now.

Prediction: Wesleyan 75 – Bates 64

Trinity at Bowdoin, 3:00 PM, Brunswick, ME

The Bantams certainly don’t win pretty, but they do win as they escaped against Colby 62-60. Trinity will look to get the ball inside a lot today, something they failed to do last night finishing the night with just 8 free throws as a team. Frontcourt depth behind Shay Ajayi ’16 and Ed Ogundeko ’17 remains a concern. Primary backup Connor Merinder ’19 could really use a breakout game to get more confidence going down the stretch. Otherwise the Bantams are in danger of Ogundeko getting into foul trouble.

To stop the Bantams inside, Bowdoin needs a team effort, especially rebounding the ball. The Polar Bears sorely miss John Swords ’15 in that category, but they still should be doing a better job boxing out as a team. The individual offensive brilliance of Lucas Hausman ’16 and Jack Simonds ’19 had the Polar Bears up on Amherst. It’s possible that great performances from those two today are enough, but I think the Bantams defense is too stout.

Prediction: Trinity 73 – Bowdoin 67

Amherst at Colby, 3:00 PM, Waterville, ME

The good news for Colby is that Patrick Stewart ’16 played 31 minutes last night and Chris Hudnut ’16 returned in limited action to score 8 points. The bad news is they need a massive upset to avoid an 0-5 conference start. Ryan Jann ’16 had an off night against the Bantams going 0-7 from the field, and the Mules need him to make tough shots. Colby is getting healthy, but they might not be getting there fast enough to help today.

Connor Green ’16 looked like his old self scoring 27 points against Bowdoin. Amherst in the second half was sending three guys to crash the offensive boards, and the leaping ability of guys like Green and Michael Riopel ’18 made a difference. Whatever Amherst found in the second half last night needs to carry over to today. An engaged and aggressive Amherst team is a terror for the rest of the league because of the athleticism and size the roster has. Barring Colby hitting everything from three today, Amherst gets the job done.

Prediction: Amherst 82 – Colby 71

Williams at Middlebury, Sunday 3:00 PM, Middlebury, VT

This is the only game this weekend besides Tufts vs. Conn College that features two above .500 teams in conference. The Ephs are now riding a three game winning streak, but the three games all came at home against Hamilton, Bowdoin, and Colby. Those three have a combined conference record of 1-12. The scores of those game are also remarkable similar: 75-66 over Colby, 76-65 over Bowdoin, and 73-63 over Hamilton. The other constant in those games was Dan Aronowitz ’17, who averaged 21.0 PPG and 10.3 RPG over the three game stretch. Aronowitz is much more of a threat from three this season, and the Panthers need to keep an eye on him at all times.

Middlebury won’t have played in over a week when they take the court tomorrow, and that time off has given them plenty of time to get ready for the Ephs. The Panthers strength recently has been great depth. Guys like Adisa Majors ’18 and Bryan Jones ’17 have been coming off the bench and giving an instant lift to the team. Their depth helps to keep the Panthers fresh since they are constantly pushing the ball up the court. Williams has the discipline and personnel to counter that transition offense, however. Sometimes basketball is just about who hits shots and who misses them, and if that is the case in this one then I like Williams in a squeaker.

Prediction: Williams 79 – Middlebury – 75

On the Road Again: Weekend Preview 1/22

Our forerunner PantherNation (still alive and well in the Twitterverse but survived only by us in the blogosphere) astutely points out that the first two weekends of NESCAC play have been marked by home teams dominating. Getting an idea of how much home court advantage helps teams is hard in part because in the NESCAC teams usually play against each other once a season. It most certainly isn’t worth 53 points, the point differential between Saturday’s blowout win for Amherst over Wesleyan and Monday’s reversal of Wesleyan destroying Amherst.It obviously matters though. NESCAC teams went 32-23 at home in conference games a season ago.

This weekend the top three teams in our Power Rankings (Trinity, Amherst, and Tufts) all head out on the road. Amherst and Trinity are travel partners so they head to Maine in order to visit Colby and Bowdoin. Tufts, who already played on the road last weekend and split against Middlebury and Hamilton, travels through Connecticut for games vs. Conn College and Wesleyan.

Trinity and Amherst are the teams to keep an eye on. Both are perfect at home, but Trinity has a 4-4 record away from home and Amherst is 5-2. Neither Colby or Bowdoin appears to be a huge burden to get past, but both teams have players capable of putting the team on their back with hot shooting. Winning on the road is all important for securing what matters: a home NESCAC playoff game.

Two to Watch

1. Shooting Guard Lucas Hausman ’16 (Bowdoin): It’s a huge weekend for the Polar Bears needing at least a split against Trinity and Amherst in order to avoid falling to 1- in conference. It took 40 points from Hausman against Bates to get Bowdoin their one conference win. He will probably need somewhere close to 30 in a game this weekend. The problem is that Amherst with Johnny McCarthy ’18 and Trinity with Shay Ajayi ’16 both have defenders capable of at least bothering Hausman. Last season Hausman averaged 20 points in two losses to Amherst and had 30 in an overtime loss at Trinity. Hausman is prone to sometimes get off to slow starts, but Bowdoin can’t afford to fall behind in either of their games this weekend. While he is averaging a phenomenal 25.1 PPG this season, those numbers will start to look meaningless if Bowdoin keeps losing games.

2. Point Guard Shawn Strickland ’18 (Bates): In four wins over just more than a week at the beginning of January, Strickland scored in double figures for 4 consecutive games. That was when Bates played their best basketball with close wins over Brandeis, Babson, and Colby. In the three games since then, Strickland has been held to single digits in each game, and the Bobcats have gone 1-2. The Bobcats do not have enough perimeter scoring without Strickland making shots to keep up with teams. Josh Britten ’16 has been great making threes, but he is a one dimensional player. Mike Boornazian ’16 is good, but his efficiency has suffered without Graham Safford ’15 to take pressure off him. Strickland needs to be the guy scoring 10-15 points per game. He also needs to push the pace so that Bates can get easy buckets in transition.

Tyler Rowe '19 lead Conn College into a big home NESCAC weekend. (Courtesy of Conn College Athletics)
Tyler Rowe ’19 leads Conn College into a big home NESCAC weekend. (Courtesy of Conn College Athletics)

Two Storylines to Follow

1. Wesleyan drawing a line in the sand.

I have a suspicion that this is right where Wesleyan wants to be. Last year the Cardinals hot streak started when they had their backs against the wall. They were 3-5 heading into the last weekend of the season with road games against Hamilton and Williams. They won both those in blowouts before winning three games in a row on the road.

Against Amherst on Friday night, Wesleyan looked as bad as any team can. From the very first possession of the game when Amherst got two straight offensive rebounds before Connor Green hit a three, the Cardinals looked like a defeated team. Nobody on offense was trying to attack the paint, and if they did, they were getting swallowed up by the Amherst defenders. Wesleyan was able to hold Amherst scoreless for a period of 4 minutes and 46 seconds in the first half, but they were only able to cut a 24 point deficit to 20 points in that span.

I didn’t watch the game on Monday night I’ll admit, but the statement from Wesleyan was a strong one. The game means more for the Cardinals than it does Amherst. A key for Wesleyan was having a combined 16 steals and blocks. They need to use that defensive energy to get them going on the other end of the floor. Both Bates and Tufts are tough opponents, but the Cardinals get them at home. Maybe just maybe, the Wesleyan crowds that came out in full force down the stretch last year return this weekend and help carry the Cardinals to a big weekend.

2. Who leads the way for Amherst.

This storyline has been one developing all season. We noted back on December 2nd that Connor Green’s ’16 struggles could cause problems on such a talented team. Even with the 3-0 conference start, Amherst still has a lot of uncertainty surrounding them. Green seemed to break out when he had 39 points and made big shot after big shot in Amherst’s double-OT win over Babson on December 10th. Yet, in the eight games since then, Green is averaging 11.4 PPG on 33.7% shooting. 53.5% of all the shots Green has taken are from beyond the three point line, though that is just up slightly from last year when 51.4% of his shots were threes.

For a little while in the beginning of January, Amherst was incredibly balanced with no player scoring 20 points in four straight games. In the past two games, Jayde Dawson ’18 has stepped to the forefront running the offense with authority from the point guard position. Way too often Dawson forces the issue, either launching a three early in the shot clock or driving with no real plan of where to go with the ball. At the same time, he has made some big shots this season. Either him or Green is the player most capable of carrying the offense. However, each of them is equally capable of sinking Amherst in any given game. This issue isn’t going away, but keep an eye on it this weekend.

Jaquann Starks '16 is ready to roll. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)
Jaquann Starks ’16 is ready to roll. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)

Friday Game Predictions

Check back in first thing Saturday morning for predictions on the Saturday and Sunday games.

Trinity (12-4, 3-0) at Colby (11-4, 0-3)

You might not remember, but Colby  without Patrick Stewart ’16 or Chris Hudnut ’16 came VERY close to beating Trinity in the NESCAC quarterfinals, ultimately falling 66-63. We don’t know how healthy Stewart is after he came off the bench in a non-conference game this week. Having him healthy gives Colby a chance to spring the upset. It will take a bevy of threes from the Mules to do it, though.

How Trinity reacts to the long bus ride up north is probably the deciding factor in this one. A Bantam team ready to play has too much size for the Mules to handle. Another key is Rick Naylor ’16, Eric Gendron ’18, and Jaquann Starks ’16 making threes. to open up the inside. One person who should not be shooting threes is Shay Ajayi ’16. He is shooting 25.7% on threes. He is best attacking the rim, even if he is out of control at times when he does so. The Bantams need to be upset alert, but they will get the job done.

Prediction: Trinity over Colby 72-63

Tufts (12-3, 3-1) at Wesleyan (13-4, 1-3)

The Jumbos started strong in conference last year also, but they stumbled later on in their schedule. That strong start was fueled in large part by Tarik Smith ’17 shooting the ball at an unsustainable level. This season Smith has been playing well in a secondary role to Vincent Pace ’18. Often Smith will pass up an open three to drive into the paint. That attacking mentality has paid off to the tune of Smith making the 2nd most free throws per game in the NESCAC. It sometimes feels like Smith is moving in slow motion, but he is always in control. He has to take pressure off of Pace in this one.

The Jumbos are hoping to get Ryan Spadaford ’16 back from an ankle injury that made him miss last weekend. Spadaford is the final piece that lets the Jumbos play with four three point shooters surrounding Tom Palleschi ’17. His return is going to be enough to get past Wesleyan… I think.

Prediction: Tufts over Wesleyan 71-67

Amherst (13-2, 3-0) at Bowdoin (8-5, 1-2)

As a Bowdoin fan, I do not like this matchup for the Polar Bears at all. Amherst’s weakness on defense is when you put them into pick and roll situations and are able to penetrate forcing the defense to scramble. McCarthy has the size and quickness to give Hausman problems, and Coach Dave Hixon can try either Green or Racy on Jack Simonds ’19. On the interior, David George ’17 presents problems for Matt Palecki ’16 and Neil Fuller ’17 on the boards. Dawson went off against Bowdoin in the NESCAC semifinals for 21 points last year, and he is playing as well as he ever has for Amherst.

If I’m Coach Tim Gilbride I’m stashing Hausman, a not good defender, on Racy. Hausman just has to stick to Racy the whole time, and since Racy isn’t a threat to drive much, Hausman should be up for the task. Hixon will probably counter by running Racy off screens in order to tire out Hausman. If Bowdoin is going to win, it needs a big game from an unexpected source. Guard Jake Donnelly ’16 or Matt Palecki ’16 are the most likely candidates. Even then, I don’t think that Bowdoin has enough to hang with Amherst in a high scoring game.

Prediction: Amherst over Bowdoin 87-74

Bates (9-7, 2-2) at Conn College (11-5, 2-2)

This is the type of game that shows the depth of the league this year. Both teams have plenty of talent but lots of flaws also. Conn College has been playing so well recently that they might see a little regression this weekend. The Bobcats are on the road for the second straight weekend. They have been on the bus a lot recently after making the trip to Hamilton last weekend.

Marcus and Malcolm Delpeche ’17, the twins who have confused announcers from the day they set foot on campus, have become more consistent this season. However, neither is capable of winning a game by himself, and the edge on the perimeter goes to the Camels. Conn College proves that they are really a quality NESCAC team this weekend with a big win.

Prediction: Conn College over Bates 72-59

Hamilton (8-8, 0-4) at Williams (11-5, 2-2)

Coach Kevin App and Williams lost on the road to Hamilton last year, and they shouldn’t be looking past this game. Freshmen dot both starting lineups, and the battle between Kyle Scadlock ’19 and Andrew Groll ’19 is a diaper dandy. In the end, the difference is not a freshmen but Dan Aronowitz ’17. The multi-faceted forward is doing a great job of leading this Ephs team without forcing things too often. Williams gets above .500 in conference after starting off 0-2.

Prediction: Williams over Hamilton 68-60

Note: I’m picking three road teams to win. We’ll see how that goes.

New Number One: Power Rankings 1/21

Amherst prepares to break the huddle around Coach Dave Hixon. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)
Amherst prepares to break the huddle around Coach Dave Hixon. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

We do Power Rankings every week in order to look beyond the simple story of wins and losses and really try to get an idea for how each team stacks to each other. Not all wins and losses are created equally obviously. The rankings near the beginning of the season are mostly a result of the eye test since teams in the non-conference schedule do not play that many common opponents. By the end of the NESCAC regular season the Power Rankings will look quite similar to the NESCAC standings because of all that data we get from the NESCAC games.

Right now though might be when the Power Rankings are at their most valuable because there is enough common opponents to grade each team roughly while the eye test still carries weight. So read on, and get angry about how much lower your favorite team is than you think it deserves to be.

1. Tufts Jumbos (12-3, 3-1, Last Week: 2)

Tufts just lost to Middlebury Friday night, but the game was on the road and went into overtime. They shot 16-29 (55.2%) from the free throw line and committed 20 turnovers even though they are 2nd in the NESCAC in free throw percentage at 75.1% and are averaging 13.2 TOs per game. The loss ended an 8 game winning streak, but it is a good loss, and the Jumbos responded well by blowing out Hamilton the next day. They have blown out Colby, Bowdoin, and Hamilton. Those three teams have a combined winning percentage of 1-9 in league play, but nobody else is blowing teams out like the Jumbos are.

However, Coach Bob Sheldon could end up being the Achilles Heel for this team. On Friday down the stretch and in overtime, he insisted on subbing out Tom Palleschi ’17 on defense because he had four fouls and Sheldon did not want to lose him on offense. I’m sorry, but you have to play the LEADING shot blocker in the NESCAC (and the all-time Tufts leader in blocks) on defense in a close game even if he ends up fouling out. Palleschi sat from the 3:10 to the 0:38 mark in overtime because there was no stoppage in play for Sheldon to get his big man back in the game.

2. Amherst (13-2, 3-0, Last Week: #1)

Amherst drops down a spot after getting shellacked by Wesleyan Monday night 71-44 in the non-conference Little Three game. Having to come back at home in the 2nd half against Conn College on Saturday also isn’t a great look. This is a better version of the team from last year since everyone is back, but it is frustrating for Amherst fans that the same problems still dog them. The defense is lackluster even though they have superior athletes at almost every position, and the team relies on outside shooters, many of whom are streaky.

The one shooter who is not streaky is Jeff Racy ’17. In conference, he is shooting the ball 7.3 times per game while averaging 15.7 PPG. So he is averaging more than 2.0 points per shot. Put another way, Racy’s points per shot is better than a dunk! Using true shooting percentage, a slightly better statistic, Racy comes in at .768 this season. At Michigan, Duncan Robinson is leading the country in true shooting percentage (that a former NESCAC player is leading the country in that category is pretty incredible) with the number .733. Basically, Racy is incredibly efficient. He is also the leading scorer for Amherst.

3. Trinity Bantams (12-4, 3-0, Last Week: #4)

Every week Trinity is looking more and more dangerous, putting their uneasy early season further into the distance. They pulled away from both Conn College and Wesleyan in games that were closer than the final score indicated. The ability of Trinity to finish games is a skill that they have shown a lot over the past two seasons. The team defense isn’t as good as it has been in years past in part because of the loss of ace perimeter defender Hart Gliedman ’15. It is still a really physical group that is not giving up a lot of easy buckets.

The difference from last year is they don’t have to rely on Jaquann Starks ’16 nearly as much on offense. Ed Ogundeko ’17 has made a big jump in his junior season, and Shay Ajayi ’16 is playing better also meaning that the Bantams have a legitimate three headed attack on offense. I just wish that Coach Jim Cosgrove would play his core guys more. Nobody on the roster is averaging more than 25 minutes per game. Even in conference games, no Bantam is playing more than 30 minutes per game.

4. Williams Ephs (11-5, 2-2, Last Week: #6)

The win for Williams Sunday against Bowdoin to get back to 2-2 in conference was a big one. The Ephs didn’t play great and they still did enough to beat a quality team without too much drama. They are shooting the ball much better in conference: 40.0% 3FG in conference vs. 33.9% 3FG overall. I’m a little surprised that the Ephs rank second to last in assists per game even though their offense is built on moving the ball from side to side and frequent back cuts. The good news is they aren’t turning the ball over that frequently: just 12.0 TOs per game which is the third best mark in the league. Point guard Bobby Casey ’19 has become the third best player on the team behind Dan Aronowitz ’17 and Kyle Scadlock ’19. For what was supposed to be a rebuilding year, the Ephs are pretty darn good.

5. Middlebury Panthers (9-7, 3-1, Last Week: #10)

The biggest movers this week backed up the big overtime win over Tufts by controlling the entire way to beat Bates 73-61. The Panthers did it without center Matt Daley ’16 too. The downside is that Daley, unfortunately injury riddled his whole career, might be dealing with something that won’t go away. If that is the case, the Panthers will have to double down on playing aggressive perimeter defense and pushing the ball in transition at all times. Point guard Jake Brown ’17 is the x-factor for them: he was good last weekend. He even is shooting pretty well from three this season, even if his attempts are still really low. One concern is that he is too aggressive on defense. He leads the league in fouling out, especially bad as a perimeter player. He has to figure out how to hound his opponents without picking up ticky-tack fouls.

6. Wesleyan Cardinals (13-4, 1-3, Last Week: #3)

What a weird team. Just three days after getting run out of the building at Amherst and having nobody on the team make more than two shots from the field, Wesleyan turned around and put the beatdown on Amherst. Squeezed in between was the Cardinals battling Trinity for 32 minutes before scoring just 10 points in the final 8:46 and losing to the Bantams. That offense has been oddly ineffective. Stalwarts Joe Edmonds ’16 and Harry Rafferty ’17, the two leading scorers for Wesleyan in 2013-2014, have been relegated to minor roles. Edmonds has lost his starting spot at least temporarily to Kevin O’Brien ’19, and Rafferty has continued to not shoot the ball efficiently. Getting those two straightened out is necessary.

This group is going to continue to fight as Monday night showed. The tweet from point guard Jack Mackey came after the game on Monday and is in response to a Twitter account that was mercilessly mocking Wesleyan’s performance during the game Friday.

7. Conn College Camels (11-5, 2-2, Last Week: 5)

Alright, so the Camels aren’t going from winless to undefeated in NESCAC play. Yet, I feel better about them this week than I did last because of the way they played vs. Amherst and Trinity. For a young team, there is such a thing as a moral victory. Going into LeFrak Gym (Amherst’s home court) and nearly coming away with the win is going to help this group in the next few weeks. Point guard Tyler Rowe ’19 has been a handle for everybody who has to guard him. He hasn’t even been shooting the ball well from three recently (an atrocious 1-12 in conference). Rowe and other young guns like forward David LaBossiere ’19 and sharpshooter Lee Messier ’18 are making the Camels tons of fun to watch. A huge weekend with visits from Bates and Tufts awaits them.

8. Bates Bobcats (9-7, 2-2, Last Week: #7)

Another 1-1 week for Bates as they continue to tread water. The problem is that the two wins were against Colby (a healthy Colby team though) and Hamilton so a lot of hard games still remain on the schedule. Josh Britten ’16 has stepped up in a big way in his senior year. Last season he averaged just 5.5 MPG. Now he is starting, averaging 17.9 MPG, and is the top three point threat on the team making 2.2 threes per game at a 42.2% clip. Mike Boornazian ’16 has to play at a higher level than he has so far in conference for Bates to make a run.

9. Bowdoin Polar Bears (8-5, 1-2, Last Week: #8)

I’ll be writing a lot more about my dear Polar Bears soon, so I’ll keep it brief. The loss to Williams was tough because now Bowdoin has to follow it up with visits from Trinity and Amherst. Lose both those games and suddenly they are 1-4 even if none of the losses are bad ones. Against Williams, Bowdoin missed their final 13 three-pointers. The margin for error is small on this team, and the shots didn’t go in at exactly the wrong time for them.

10. Colby Mules (11-4, 0-3, Last Week: #9)

My goodness does that 10 game winning streak Colby had feel like forever ago. A team that was a potential dark horse this year is staring down the barrel of an 0-5 start with Amherst and Trinity this weekend. Both forward Pat Stewart ’16 and center Chris Hudnut ’16 were in street clothes for the game Friday against Williams. Stewart was back in limited action on Tuesday in a win over Maine Maritime, but Hudnut was conspicuously absence. Without Hudnut, the Mules simply don’t have the size to keep pace with teams. They will fight and claw like crazy with Ryan Jann ’16 leading the way, and they will scare teams a lot. Still, Hudnut is a NESCAC First Team type player, and nobody on the roster can replicate at all what he does.

11. Hamilton Continentals (8-8, 0-4, Last Week: 11)

I feel like I wrote the exact same thing last year, but Hamilton really is pretty good for a team that is winless in conference. Their problem is the lack of any player who is capable of creating his own shot on offense. That coupled with a suspect defense is holding them back for now, but if they keep laying this way then good days are coming. They are out-rebounding teams by 5.0 boards per game in NESCAC play (best margin of anyone), a surprising but encouraging stat considering that Hamilton has not shot a good percentage meaning their opponents should have lots of easy defensive rebounds against them. Instead, guys like Andrew Groll ’19 and Ajani Santos ’16 are getting after it on the offensive boards. Hamilton will get their first win soon.

Vinny Pace: Leading the Jumbos’ Stampede

Vinny Pace '18 is a new man this season. (Courtesy of the Tufts Daily)
Vinny Pace ’18 is a new man this season. (Courtesy of the Tufts Daily)

Last year, Vinny Pace ’18 averaged 5.2 ppg overall for the Tufts Jumbos, and 5.4 ppg in conference. This season, Pace has absolutely exploded, and his numbers have skyrocketed to 19.5 ppg overall and an incredible 22.3 ppg in conference, shattering last year’s statistics and leaving us NESCAC junkies wondering, “What did Vinny do this offseason?” Seriously, this improvement has been incredible.

When I talked to Pace this week about his offseason workout regimen, he told me his primary focus was on improving his jump shot.

“I think having that going more consistently this year is making it easier to drive and get into the lane and make plays on offense.”

It worked. Pace is shooting much more consistently. The sniper is shooting 43.2 percent overall this year, but what’s more impressive is his in conference shooting: Vinny’s 14 threes are the most made in conference play thus far, and his three-point shooting percentage (58.3 percent) puts him at third in conference play. Pace has knocked down three or more from deep in 15 games this season, proving that his long-range game is a vital part of his offense.

Defenders have realized they have to step out on Pace to contest the three, but when they do, he blows right past them to get to the hole. He’s drawing contact and getting to the foul line, but the key is that he’s not forcing anything. When Pace doesn’t have a clean shot, he kicks it out to open shooters. His ability to distribute the ball is possibly Pace’s most impressive attribute. He’s tied at eighth in NESCAC play in assists, which is very impressive for the league’s second-highest scorer.

In addition, Pace is also rebounding the ball extremely well. He has even out-rebounded stud center Tom Palleschi ’17 in conference play. Ranked fourth in NESCAC games, Pace has made it clear that even though they are going to push the ball on the break, Tufts’ four-guard lineup is not going to lose games on the boards. Pace loves the new up-tempo style of play.

“Playing faster has allowed for more easy baskets for the entire team. It has allowed for guys to make plays in the open floor in transition, which we really didn’t have a chance to do last year.”

As the season progresses, keep an eye on Pace. It is definitely going to be a challenge to keep up the freakish rate Pace is performing at – ranking top-10 in points, assists and rebounds is crazy – but I think Pace is at least up to the task of keeping it close. This Friday night’s tilt is definitely going to be a good one to watch when Pace matches up with Wesleyan’s star BJ Davis ’16 in Middletown, Connecticut. Tune in to see whether or not Pace and the Jumbos can keep the train moving in the right direction against the Cardinals.

No Easy Games in the NESCAC: Weekend Preview 1/15/16

Another weekend of NESCAC basketball is ready to fascinate minds around the world. (Courtesy of Bates College)
Another weekend of NESCAC basketball is ready to fascinate minds around the world. (Courtesy of Bates College)

I’m a young pup of  22 years old, and I didn’t have the slightest idea about NESCAC basketball until just a few years ago. However, I think that the league is as good from top to bottom as it has ever been. When you have the defending champions Wesleyan (who as we know brought everyone on the roster back) nearly go 0-2 in the first weekend against two teams that missed the NESCAC tournament last year, the depth of the league is clear. That depth means that teams can’t dig themselves too big of a hole if they want to make the NESCAC tournament. The three 0-2 teams (Williams, Colby, and Hamilton) all have to face big challenges this weekend.

Three to Watch

  1. Center Chris Hudnut ’16 (Colby): It’s hard to believe, but both Williams and Colby are winless coming into tonight making this almost a must win for both teams. Colby had the more disappointing weekend seeing their 10 game winning streak go up in smoke on the road. To get back on track, the Mules need to have their man in the middle carry the load. Hudnut was a total non-factor last weekend scoring just 4.5 PPG in the two losses. He didn’t even score in the first half of the game against Bates. Hudnut has had some big games this year, but against the Mules’ top opponents he has had subpar performances. He has to play better against Williams, a team that, even with Ed Flynn ’16 playing better, is weak defensively inside. Hudnut was missing shots he normally makes last weekend. I’m guessing he makes more of those tonight.
  2. Center Ed Ogundeko ’17 (Trinity): Few players looked as impressive as Ogundeko did last weekend. The junior carried the Bantams with 21 points on 9-13 shooting and 11 rebounds. Most impressive was the control that Ogundeko played with (something his teammate Shay Ajayi ’16 could take notes on). The broad-shouldered big man used his positioning to get good looks down low that he finished with good touch. What proved that he was really locked in was the two jumpshots from the top of the key that he knocked down no problem. Tonight, the Bantams face Conn College in a game that will be a great measuring stick for the Camels. Saturday, Trinity faces Wesleyan who bounced the Bantams from the NESCAC tournament last year. Ogundeko, averaging 14.3 PPG and 11.7 RPG, needs to keep getting double-doubles this weekend.
  3. Guard Jack Mackey ’16 (Wesleyan): BJ Davis ’16 has risen to leading man status for the Cardinals, but he can’t do it alone obviously. Mackey has had a really slow start to the year because of injury problems. Last weekend Mackey had two of his better games scoring the ball averaging 14.0 PPG, but it did take him 14 shots in both games to do that. Almost everything for Mackey is coming on the perimeter which is why he is shooting 0.6 free throws per game, an awfully low number for a point guard. His rebounding numbers are also down from a year ago. The guard is one of the toughest players in the NESCAC, and that tenacity is a huge source of the edge that Wesleyan plays with. Now he needs to get back to playing as well as he is capable of.

Biggest Game: Wesleyan (12-2, 1-1) at Amherst (11-1, 1-0). Tonight at 7:00 PM

Guys, I’m a little bit worried about Wesleyan. I was expecting after their loss to Middlebury last Friday to come out firing against Hamilton, but they barely eeked out an overtime victory. Now they have to go on the road to Amherst and Trinity, the hardest possible weekend the NESCAC can offer. Let’s not forget that before they got really hot at the end of the year and won the NESCAC tournament, Wesleyan was a 3-5 team heading into the final weekend last season. And yes, they ran through non-conference play, but they didn’t have any great wins in that stretch.

What was concerning about last weekend was the lack of defense and the inability to dictate the pace, especially against Middlebury. The Cardinals are built to win games played in the high 50s with Davis making the big shots at the end of games. A team with so many seniors should not have to worry about a team as young as Middlebury imposing their style on a game, but that is exactly what happened last Friday. Nate Krill ’18 who was injured all of last year, has been a great addition as the backup big man, and the depth for the Cardinals is better than it was a year ago. The problem is that makes it harder for Coach Mike Reilly to find the right combination of players any given night.

On the other side, Amherst is sure to be out for revenge for last year’s championship loss. This team is playing better than it was last year, and with all the talent they have it is always going to feel like they have another gear to reach. I just don’t know if we will ever see that gear be reached for any significant length of time. The pieces don’t all fit together quite right for them. They might lead the league as a team in assists, but aside from backup point guard Reid Berman ’17, everybody on the roster is more comfortable looking for their own shot than finding a teammate.

For a team as talented as Amherst is, they are weirdly reliant on the three pointer. They have made more as a team than anybody else in the NESCAC, even though they have played less games than everyone else. Jeff Racy ’17 is a dead-eye assassin, but both Connor Green ’16 and Johnny McCarthy ’18 are streaky shooters.  Wesleyan is hoping that they can force a reprisal of the championship game when Racy, Green, and McCarthy combined to shoot 3-20 from deep. The likelihood of that is not good, and I think that Amherst rolls in this one.

Upset Alert: Tufts (11-2, 2-0) at Hamilton (7-6, 0-2). Saturday at 3:00 PM

After the perfect storm of a weekend that the Jumbos had to open the season, they almost feel primed for a letdown. You might have thought I would pick Middlebury to upset Tufts, given how the Panthers already pulled a fast one on Wesleyan. But the Jumbos are going to be ready for that one tonight. Yet, after the game tonight, Tufts will have to drive a few hours through sleepy upstate New York to get to Hamilton for their game tomorrow. The gym at Hamilton is notorious for having subpar crowds, so it’s going to be sleepy there too.

Throw in the possibility of Hamilton getting hot from deep, and suddenly the possibility of an upset starts to crystallize. What if Ajani Santos ’16 shows up like he did against Conn College and puts Tom Palleschi ’17 into foul trouble? What if the Jumbos simply aren’t as good on the road as they are in Medford? Odds are that Vincent Pace ’18, Tarik Smith ’17, and Stephen Haladyna ’16 are too much on the perimeter for the Continentals to handle. I’m just saying that this is the NESCAC where (almost) anything is possible.

You can get our predictions on every game tonight over on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/CACSportsBlog

Discord among the Ranks: Basketball Power Rankings 1/15

Amherst Coach Dave Hixon shouldn't look so worried. The Lord Jeffs haven't moved from the top of the ranks. (Courtesy of Mark Box/Clarus Studios)
Amherst Coach Dave Hixon shouldn’t look so worried. The Lord Jeffs haven’t moved from the top of the ranks. (Courtesy of Mark Box/Clarus Studios)

As always, college basketball, and particularly the Little Ivies, will enjoy a number of upsets throughout the season and well into the playoffs, but in the NESCAC this season it’s hard to even know what to consider an upset. Amherst and Tufts seem to have separated themselves from the pack in the early going, and Hamilton has a long way to go to climb out of the cellar, but otherwise it appears that any team could win against anyone on any given day. Spots 3-10 in these rankings are especially close, and will probably look completely different next week.

1. Amherst (11-1, 2-0, Last week: 1)

The Lord Jeffs sit at No. 9 in the D3hoops.com national rankings. Thus far they have been outstanding, leading the league with 88.6 ppg while shooting 48.8 percent and have been able to hold teams to a respectable 72.0 ppg. They are atop the leaderboard of the NESCAC Conference, and remain the front runner to win the NESCAC tournament. Their only blunder so far came in a 79-69 loss to Rhodes College (Ky.), who are only .500 so far, but play a tough schedule. Look for Connor Green ’16 to continue to lead the charge with his 15.3 ppg. Swingman Jeff Racy ’17 is shooting 55.3 percent beyond the arc and supplying 14.6 ppg. Last year’s Rookie of the year, guard Johnny McCarthy ’18, is spending the most time on the hardwood and putting up 13.1 ppg.

2. Tufts (11-2, 2-0, Last week: 2)

After rolling over Bowdoin and Colby to open up NESCAC play last week, Tufts climbed the national ranks to No. 17 from No. 22 the week before. They have two losses, coming against a very good MIT team and 12th-ranked WPI. Vinny Pace ’18 continues to power their offense averaging 19.2 ppg. Though still a very young team, they seem unfazed and stick to their fast-paced offense with the lone big man, Tom Palleschi ’17, doing the dirty work down low with 48 blocks on the season. Tufts ranks second in the league in scoring with 86.1 ppg and their starting five all average at least 10.0 ppg. They get to the line more than any NESCAC team and they hit their free throws, sitting atop the ‘CAC at 77.2 percent from the stripe. Tufts will take on Middlebury tonight and Hamilton tomorrow, two games that the Jumbos should win; and two wins that would push their winning streak to 10 games.

3. Wesleyan (12-2, 1-1, Last week: 3)

Their first NESCAC game was a loss to Middlebury, a team that just seems to have the Cardinals’ number. Wesleyan will be put to the test tonight as they travel to western Massachusetts to take on Amherst and then head to Hartford for a game with Trinity tomorrow. Point guard BJ Davis ’16, who has averaged 19.0 ppg, will need to be on if they want to take down the No. 9 team in the nation. Wesleyan will have two chances to down the Jeffs, as they will host Amherst on Monday, but only tonight’s game will count towards the conference standings. Aside from the loss to Middlebury, the Cards were able to fend off Hamilton with an overtime victory and took down Williams in a scrappy non-conference game. Wesleyan plays good defense, keeping teams to 67.8 ppg, second best in the NESCAC. Joseph Kuo ’17 is the man holding it together down low for the Cards scoring 12.1 ppg and pulling in 109 rebounds this season. It is tough to say where Wesleyan will end up this year, but they should certainly be in the playoffs, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them fighting for a top-four seed as the season wraps up.

4. Trinity (9-4, 1-0, Last week: 8)

Don’t sleep on the Bantams. What’s that old saying? Oh yeah, Defense Wins Championships. The Bantams lead the pack when it comes to defensive statistics – number one in scoring defense (64.7 ppg allowed) and rebounding margin (+10.8). Though they stand at 9-4 on the season with a few weak losses, they opened up NESCAC play with a big one-point victory over Williams. Coach James Cosgrove implements fundamental basketball, and Trinity will grind with the good teams. As 2015 First Team All-NESCAC guard Jaquann Starks ’16 and the Trinity shooters heat up for the long haul of NESCAC games and the playoffs, the Bantams should be in fine shape. Eric Gendron ’18 is leading the league in three point percentage at 59.3 percent. With a frontcourt of Ed Ogundek0 ’17 and Shay Ajayi ’16 that is combining for 26.0 ppg and 19.0 rpg and point man Andrew Hurd ’16 commandeering the floor and leading the league in assists, everything is in place for another wild playoff run.

5. Connecticut College (10-3, 2-0, Last week: 9)

Not taking anything away from their 2-0 NESCAC record, but I will need to see them compete against big dogs of the NESCAC before they can crack the top four. They won close games vs. Hamilton and Middlebury, two very questionable teams this year. Ten wins at this stage is almost unheard of for the Camels, but they will need to continue the hot streak against a gritty Trinity team tonight in Hartford. Look for guards Lee Messier ’18 and Tyler Rowe ’19 to be the point scorers as they have combined for 27.0 ppg thus far this season. Messier can be lethal with his 40.2 percent mark beyond the arc. Conn is a consistent offensive team averaging 82.2 ppg, but their defense will likely not hold up against the bigger and better NESCAC teams. The Camels are last in the league in scoring defense with 76.5 ppg allowed and rebounding margin (+1.3).

6. Williams (9-5, 0-2, Last week: 5)

The Ephs definitely got the toughest opening weekend schedule, traveling to Amherst on Friday and Trinity on Sunday. They lost a heartbreaker to the Bantams, but they competed well given their youth. There are a lot of games still to play. Rookie forward Kyle Scadlock ’19 has been efficient, ranking eighth in the league in field goal percentage, while the Dan Aronowitz ’17 is averaging 16.7 ppg. They are not getting the productivity they would like out of 6’10″ center Edward Flynn ’16, though, who has only been able to pull in 4.9 rbg, which is a glaring hole when one considers the front courts of the league’s best teams. Though their 0-2 conference record doesn’t show it at this point, Williams could be a sleeper pick come playoff time. They to Wesleyan and Trinity by two points or less, so they will be desperate for redemption come playoff time.

7. Bates (8-6, 1-1, Last week: 7)

Bates has played a very tough schedule, but it is fair to say that they are struggling this season. Despite the size of the Delpeche twins, the Bobcats are 10th in the NESCAC in scoring defense. This will prove to be a detriment as the NESCAC season unravels. Mike Boornazian ’16 is the ringleader for the Bobcats posting 15.5 ppg with 2.8 apg, while Shawn Strickland ’18 supplies 3.6 apg and shoots 42.4 percent from three-point land. With a 1-1 NESCAC record going into tonight’s game against Hamilton, I believe Bates has the upperhand, but the Continentals are not to be taken lightly. Bates should be in the playoffs this season, but they are fiddling with the fringe.

8. Bowdoin (8-4, 1-1, Last week: 6)

Bowdoin stands at 1-1 in the NESCAC with an embarrassing loss to Tufts. The Polar Bears have Friday and Saturday off and will travel to Williams on Sunday. Thanks to the way the NESCAC schedule rotates and a postponed game last Tuesday, Bowdoin is in the midst of a 12-day stretch in which they will play just one game (unless the game with Maine-Presque Isle can be rescheduled in that time). Does that rest give Bowdoin the advantage, or will rust hurt them against the Ephs? They will then take on Amherst, Trinity and Colby who they lost to on December 5. Bowdoin has a good all-around team, but they have generally been taken advantage of on the boards. Bowdoin will be outgunned when they have to face real centers and big athletic forwards. Bowdoin does shoot well though, and Lucas Hausman ’16 leads the league (by a lot) with 25.0 ppg, with Jack Simonds ’19 backing him up and averaging 14.8 ppg.

9. Colby (10-3, 0-2, Last week: 4)

Colby looked great coming into last weekend, but will need to earn their stripes in NESCAC action. They did beat Bowdoin and Bates in early December, but those were non-conference games, and Bates got redemption by beating Colby when it mattered. Colby will travel to Massachusetts to challenge a tough Ephs team tonight. The road doesn’t get much easier as they will then have to take on Trinity and Amherst on back-to-back nights, which could make for a chilling weekend in Waterville, Maine as they could potentially fall to 0-5 in NESCAC play. The Mules will be a fringe playoff team this year, and could easily not make the NESCAC tournament. A week ago we were talking about Colby as a potential top-four seed, and now a cold spell could drop them into a battle for a spot in the playoff field. Their weakness, defense, is well-documented, and needs to get fixed if Colby is going to meet their own expectations this year.

10. Middlebury (7-7, 1-1, Last week: 11)

Middlebury earned a great win at Wesleyan to open up their conference schedule, then lost by one point to Conn College the following day. A team with the worst free throw percentage in the league will certainly have trouble down the stretch, and close games like their loss to Conn College could be marked as W’s if they can just figure out their issues from the stripe. Despite their free throw percentage, the Panthers have a very good defense holding teams to 70.8 ppg. Center Matt Daley ’16 leads the team with 8.7 rbg, which has lead to the team’s second-best +8.4 rebounding margin. Matt St. Amour ’17 leads the team with 19.1 ppg, while Daley averages 12.1. These two will need to have impactful games to take down Tufts tonight. The big question is how the heck they are going to stop Palleschi and Pace.

11. Hamilton (7-6, 0-2, Last week: 10)

Hamilton has a very young, inexperienced squad this season with just two seniors. Unsatisfied with being the runt of the NESCAC, Hamilton fought hard in their opening NESCAC games, forcing Wesleyan into overtime to eventually fall by six points and losing to Conn College by just four points. They have a foreseeable win tonight against Bates. Hamilton is just barely outscoring its opponents 71.8 ppg to 71.2 ppg. That does not translate to a good performance against tougher NESCAC teams. Point guard Jack Dwyer ’18 will give Hamilton an opportunity to win averaging while 5.2 apg. Peter Hoffmann ’19 ranks 13th in scoring this season and has made an immediate impact. There is a bright future in Hamilton, even if things aren’t looking to promising in 2015-16.

Basketball Power Rankings 1/8

Connor Green '16 and the Lord Jeffs are at the top of the ranks. What else is new? (Mark Box, Clarus Studios, Inc.)
Connor Green ’16 and the Lord Jeffs are at the top of the ranks. What else is new? (Mark Box, Clarus Studios, Inc.)

There are a lot of teams in the NESCAC that have performed very well so far this year, but everything changes once conference play begins. Will Amherst continue playing to their potential? Is Colby a real threat to go deep in the tournament? Is Tufts’ fast pace sustainable? Check out the initial power rankings to get a closer look at how each NESCAC team has done so far this year.

1. Amherst (10-1)

Coming into the year, Amherst was a clear favorite to win the NESCAC. They lost next to nothing from last year’s roster, and their younger players such as Jayde Dawson ’18, Michael Riopel ’18, and reigning NESCAC ROY Jonny McCarthy ’18 all gained valuable experience that has already provided dividends here early in the season. Amherst has played some low-talent teams this year, but what’s important is that they’ve beaten these teams in convincing fashion. Amherst has also played some very solid teams – Babson, Eastern Connecticut and Rust – and has showed that they can, in fact, win close games. In their one loss this season, to Rhodes College, Amherst shot just 6-11 from the free throw line. Additionally, McCarthy and Connor Green ’16 combined to shoot just 11-32 from the field, 3-15 from beyond the arc, and attempted zero free throws. Though Amherst has a deep bench, the Lord Jeffs can’t rely on the bench to carry the scoring load. McCarthy and Green can’t keep missing 12 threes a game between them and expect to win in conference play. Regardless, I expect that this will just be a blip on the radar and the Lord Jeffs will get back up to speed when they open up NESCAC action in Amherst tonight against their bitter rival, Williams.

2. Tufts (9-2)

Last year, Tufts was 4-7 when they faced off with Middlebury in their first conference game. With a new and improved offense, and a much more mature team, Tufts stands at 9-2 and is ranked #22 nationally as they prepare to host Bowdoin tonight. Their new run-and-gun offense has propelled their scoring average from a NESCAC-low 67.6 ppg last year to 84.1 ppg this year. Last year, Tufts was 10th in the NESCAC in free throws made per game and ninth in free throw attempts per game, but this year they are first in both categories, averaging 21.7 points from the line per game! The Jumbos are winning games against strong teams by putting pressure on their opponents. They gang rebound on defense and then push the ball up the court. On the other end, they crash the boards hard, pulling down 13.3 offensive rebounds per game. Obviously, Tom Palleschi ’17 is leading the team in rebounds, but it has been Vinny Pace ’18 that has anchored the offense this year. It seems that Palleschi is fine with his decreased scoring role, however. He has instead focused more on his defense, shown by his leap from 2.4 bpg to 4.2 bpg. The key for the Jumbos this year has been balance. They use a lot of guys in the rotation, and, so far, this has led to success for them. As long as they can stay in control at such a fast pace, I’m anticipating more success with this style against conference opponents.

3. Wesleyan (11-1)

Wesleyan heads up to Middlebury tonight riding an 11-game winning streak, and over 12 games they have allowed just 65.6 ppg, which ranks third in the NESCAC. The Cardinals have built this impressive record with their stifling defense, which causes havoc for opposing ball handlers and forces turnovers. Wesleyan leads the conference with 7.9 spg, allowing for easy run outs. Though Coach Joe Reilly’s team has struggled with turnovers a bit themselves, they are also forcing their opponents into taking bad shots, which is why they’ve had so much success. On the offensive side of the ball, BJ Davis ’16 has stepped up his game immensely this year, and is scoring nearly eight points per game more than he did last year. In some ways, this could be worrisome for the Cardinals; though it’s great that Davis has been such an effective scorer this year, the team as a whole is depending on him to put up his 19.1 ppg, as Joseph Kuo ’17 is the only other Cardinal averaging over 10.0 ppg. I’m anticipating that Davis’ numbers will drop in conference play, opening the door for other players to step up and continue Wesleyan’s hot start.

4. Colby (10-1)

After starting off the season with a 98-92 overtime loss to Staten Island, the Mules have reeled off 10 straight wins, two of which came in back-to-back games against Bowdoin and Bates. However, besides those two victories, none are very impressive. Regardless, 10-1 is nice, and we will see if Colby is as good as they look when they have a rematch against Bates tonight and then head down to Somerville to take on Tufts tomorrow. Colby’s success thus far has come through their five senior starters, particularly center Chris Hudnut ’16 and forward Ryan Jann ’16, who average 16.6 and 17.3 ppg, respectively. The reason these players are able to score so consistently stems from Colby’s team-first approach. Every player on the team is looking to make the extra pass, and each of the five starters records at least two assists per game. Colby’s 19.2 apg leads to open shots, which is why Colby is currently second in the NESCAC in scoring. If Colby can continue to share the ball so effectively, it will be a tough task to take them down.

5. Williams (8-3)

The most remarkable part of the 8-3 record the Ephs have posted so far is the youth that this teams rolls out there day in and day out. Of the seven players with appearances in every one of Williams’ games this season, four are freshmen. Though the Ephs are definitely led by Daniel Aronowitz ’17, Kyle Scadlock ’19 has made a big splash so far this year, exemplified by his 12.4 ppg and 6.7 rpg numbers. I think that the best showing that Williams has had this year is in their two-point loss to Wesleyan. Though Wesleyan did miss 14 free throws in that game, Williams showed they could play defense against a legitimate NESCAC title contender, allowing only 58 points in the game. In the same game, Aronowitz stepped up big-time, scoring 27 of his team’s 56 points. If Aronowitz can continue to hold down the fort for a bit, I think Scadlock’s fellow freshmen will become more comfortable, making Williams a dangerous team as the season progresses.

6. Bowdoin (7-3)

As expected, Lucas Hausman ’16 is off to a hot start for the Polars bears. Through 10 games, Hausman is averaging 24.7 ppg, highlighted most recently by his 35-point performance against Bridgewater State. Since an out-of-conference loss to Colby a month ago, Bowdoin has won four straight, and look to continue that streak tonight against Tufts. As we enter NESCAC play, a huge part of Bowdoin’s success will lie in the hands of Jack Simonds ’19, who has put on quite a show in his bid for NESCAC ROY so far. As a forward who relies on his perimeter shooting, Simonds will be tested in a conference where there are very few teams that play two natural big men. Against Tufts, for example, it’s likely that Simonds will be defended by Vinny Pace and Stefan Duvivier ’18, both of whom are long and athletic, which will make it difficult for Simonds to get his shots off from deep. However, if Tufts or other NESCAC opponents focus primarily on shutting down Hausman, Simonds will have opportunities to launch from deep and will the Polar Bears to victory.

7. Bates (7-5)

Five losses in 12 games is not great, but minus a stretch of three losses in December, Bates has been pretty solid so far this year. Even in those three losses, the Bobcats played pretty well, losing by four each to Colby (in overtime) and Southern Vermont, and by just seven to WPI. Those three teams are all very solid squads, so Bates should not be disappointed with these losses. What is a bit worrisome, however, is allowing triple digits in their other two losses, but luckily for Bates, those two games seem to be anomalies. In wins this year, the Bobcats have been able to keep opponents to just 65.0 ppg, in large part due to the imposing presence of the twin towers down low, Marcus Delpeche ’17 and Malcolm Delpeche ’17. On the offensive end, Mike Boornazian ’16 leads the way with 15.6 ppg. An encouraging sign for Bates is that Boornazian put up 23 points and seven rebounds against Colby, showing that he will indeed be the primary scorer once conference play rolls around. Regardless, what Bates needs out of Boornazian and the Delpeche brothers is consistency, because they really don’t have any other major scoring threats besides those three guys.

8. Trinity (8-4)

It’s pretty easy to look at Trinity’s losses and think that they are getting snubbed with a #8 nod here, but take a closer look. Sure, they’ve lost to solid teams, but do they have any good wins? Not yet. Trinity has not won a game by single digits, and that’s because they have not been able to beat any the good teams on their schedule. The Bantams started the year ranked 12th in the nation, and have since fallen out of the ranks because they have not shown the ability to win a close game. Against Eastern Connecticut, for example, the Bantams we’re actually up by six at the half, but went on to shoot 26.5 percent from the field in the second half and ended up losing by eight. Against Springfield, Trinity turned the ball over 10 times in the first half alone. It has been a trend in all their losses that Trinity has struggled to put together 40 minutes of good basketball. Nonetheless, I have faith that Jaquann Starks ’16, Ed Ogundeko ’17 and Shay Ajayi ’16 can help turn around the Bantams in the second half. Trinity has played good defense all year, so if they can turn things around on offense they’re still in fine position to finish in one of the top four spots in the NESCAC.

9. Connecticut College (7-3)

Conn College has showed a little life this year due to the play of freshmen David Labossiere ’19 and Tyler Rowe ’19. Both players have stepped in and made a huge impact so far, complementing the continued success of sharpshooter Lee Messier ’18 and big man Zuri Pavlin ’17. Rowe, a natural point guard, has done a great job attacking the paint, knowing when to shoot and when to dish. Labossiere, arguably the most athletic freshmen in the NESCAC, rebounds decently well and knows how to finish around the rim. As the Camels face off against NESCAC teams we will learn whether or not these promising young players have made the Camels a competitor in the NESCAC as their three-point loss to a solid SUNY-Canton team suggests. I think that the answer to that question is going to come down to whether or not Conn can slow down their opponents in shooting the basketball, as they currently allow opposing teams to shoot 42.5 percent from the field, the second-worst mark in the league.

10. Hamilton (7-4)

Hamilton, like Williams and Connecticut College, is a team that has been powered primarily by their freshmen so far this year. Peter Hoffmann ’19 has been the main bright spot so far for the Continentals, a freshman star who has stepped in and filled the hole left by the departure of Joseph Lin ’15. The freshman guard is averaging 13.5 ppg through 11 contests this year, and is doing most of his damage inside. While Hoffmann can step out and hit the three here and there, he has a knack for getting to the hoop, and as a result, gets to the free throw line every game. Another freshman bright spot has been Andrew Groll ’19. Groll isn’t a natural scorer, but he is pulling down 7.1 rpg. I think the early season success can be attributed to Hamilton’s players working together and accepting their individual roles on the team. Though they are last in the league in assists, there is no one player that does the majority of the scoring – eight guys are piled in the 3-10 point range, and just two, Hoffmann and Jack Dwyer ’18, are averaging double digits. I am not expecting a lot out of Hamilton in league player this year, but in the next couple years I expect them surge onto the scene as their young core matures.

11. Middlebury (6-6)

The Panthers are off to a tough start, and their mediocre offense is mostly to blame. Middlebury is having trouble winning games primarily because of two main factors: three-point shooting and free throw shooting. Middlebury is ranked second-worst in the NESCAC in made three-point field goals per game with just six. They’re also ranked 10th in made free throws per game, where they hit just 58.6 percent. With such low numbers at the charity stripe, especially in combination with such a lack of outside shooting ability, Middlebury’s only chance is to play absolutely stellar defense because you can’t expect them to shoot that much higher than the 45.5 percent mark that they’re hitting shots at. To their credit, Middlebury has done a solid job on the defensive end of the court. They’re forcing turnovers and difficult shots out of their opponents, but their lack of offense is ultimately the Achilles heel for the Panthers. Matt St. Amour ’17, Jake Brown ’17 and Matt Daley ’16 have done what they can to put the ball in the hoop, but they don’t really have anybody else who can score the ball. Middlebury is in the midst of a rebuilding period, and I don’t anticipate them making a playoff appearance this year.

Welcome to the First Day of the Rest of Your Lives: Weekend Preview 1/8

Like the rest of us, Bates Head Coach Jon Furbush is sick of this nonsense. Let's play some NESCAC basketball. (Phyllis Graber Jensen/Bates College)
Like the rest of us, Bates Head Coach Jon Furbush is sick of this nonsense. Let’s play some NESCAC basketball. (Phyllis Graber Jensen/Bates College)

Through about one month of the season (factoring in the time off for the holidays) NESCAC teams are a combined 87-33. Ten of 11 teams have records over .500. No teams remain undefeated, but Amherst, Wesleyan and, surprisingly, Colby all only have one loss. Babson, a Final Four team a year ago that took out Trinity in the Elite Eight and brought back Player of the Year candidate Joey Flannery, is 7-4, with all four of those losses coming against NESCAC teams. Amherst is ranked ninth and Tufts 22nd, with Trinity, Colby and Wesleyan knocking on the Top 25 door.

Suffice to say it’s been a successful start to the year for the NESCAC, all things considered. Because of the location of some of the member schools (read: Middlebury, Bates, Bowdoin, Colby and Hamilton, especially), NESCAC teams often face weak schedules to open the season because there just aren’t many quality teams around. That’s why it’s critical for teams to find good competition in tournaments early on. Trinity lost by five to No. 11 Susquehanna on Dec. 11 in Pennsylvania. No. 12 WPI has already bested Tufts and Bates this year. Wisconsin-Stevens Point walked all over Hamilton in Arizona on Dec. 30, and No. 20 Oswego St. handled Middlebury back in November. Colby actually beat No. 18 Mount Union down in Orlando last week. And lest we forget, the NESCAC’s success against Babson has knocked the Bobcats out of the Top 25. Win or lose, the teams that have seen this high level of competition will benefit this weekend when the intensity turns up and there are no more easy games.

Below we will give you a brief preview of each matchup (mind you, that’s 10 games, so forgive our brevity), the player or matchup to watch and a prediction. I’m supremely confident that most of our predictions will prove to look foolish this time Monday morning.

Middlebury at Wesleyan, Friday 7 PM

This is a really tough opening game for the Panthers, but if they match up well against any of the top teams in the NESCAC, it’s definitely Wesleyan, and they catch the Birds early on when they’re still nursing a few battle scars. Middlebury crushed Wesleyan 97-60 last year, and Wesleyan’s roster is basically the same, though the Panthers have lost their two best scorers. The matchup to watch is between point guards BJ Davis ’16 and Jake Brown ’17. Talk about quickness and flair, this duo has it in spades. Both teams are guard-heavy, so that’s likely to be a wash. If either front court can take over offensively, that unit’s team will win the ball game. Despite Middlebury’s struggles, their defense is underrated, so expect this to stay tight throughout.

Prediction: Wesleyan 68 – Middlebury 61

Hamilton at Conn College, Friday 7 PM

A matchup of two teams struggling to make the playoffs consistently, this is basically a must-win if either squad hopes to achieve that goal. Hamilton has been impressive early on with some talented young players, but the same could be said for Colby. We talked about three of those guys (and gave an honorable mention to another) on Wednesday. Conn’s Zuri Pavlin ’17 has been one of my favorite players to follow the past two seasons because he’s a double-double machine, but his numbers are down a little bit this year, and Hamilton has a rebounding fiend of its own in Andrew Groll ’19 than can neutralize Pavlin’s impact on the boards. Outside of Pavlin, Conn does not rebound well. Neither team is particularly strong defensively, but Conn has a little more juice on the offensive end right now, so I think they’ll eventually pull away. Plus, being at home, especially this early in the year when teams aren’t used to weekend travel, could be a bonus.

Prediction: Conn 82 – Hamilton 72

Bowdoin at Tufts, Friday 7 PM

Prior to the season, I would have guessed this would be a blow out. Now, however, with the emergence of Jack Simonds ’19, Bowdoin has a legitimate 1-2 punch, and I’m not sure anyone can stop it. On the flip side, I am pretty certain no one at Bowdoin can stop Tom Palleschi ’17. Palleschi is the man to watch. The Polar Bears will need to throw some double teams at the lefty, but in their favor is the fact that they can roll out a few forwards to slow him down, while there is very little front court relief for Palleschi. and if he stays out of foul trouble (a big if), this is going to be a comfortable, though not easy, win for the Jumbos. I have no numbers to prove this (perhaps we will compile some at some point – any stat nerds out there with some free time?) but I believe that if we had strength of schedule numbers Tufts would be near the top of the list. For the last two years they’ve been 13-12 and just some chemistry or flow or voodoo away from being really, really good. Maybe this is the year.

Prediction: Tufts 78 – Bowdoin 72

Colby at Bates, Friday 7 PM

The Mules’ MO this season is score the basketball, and they’ve done that quite well. They can shoot the three (39.9 percent), get to the line (282 FT attempts, second in NESCAC) or just throw it into big man Chris Hudnut ’16 (16.6 ppg). Even though we expected Bates to present a unique problem on defense for its opponents with the Delpeche twins in the middle, teams have been scoring at a pretty rapid clip against the Bobcats (72.1 ppg, 42.4 FG%). That could result in a recipe for disaster for Bates tonight. Colby SG Ryan Jann ’16 is the man in this one. I don’t see anyone that can stop him from Bates, and he had a cool 19 points on 6-9 shooting in their last meeting, when Colby won just 78-74 in Waterville, but the Mules also shot well below their season averages. If they can play to their potential, Colby wins this one.

Prediction: Colby 80 – Bates 70

Williams at Amherst, Friday 7 PM

When these two teams meet there is always an added level of intrigue. All-time, Williams holds the 119-97 (55.1%) advantage over Amherst, though recent history has favored the Lord Jeffs. Between 2012 and the 2014 NESCAC Championship, Amherst won eight straight contests. Miraculously, Williams broke the streak in that year’s NCAA Semis, then won again in the teams’ first meeting of 2015. Amherst won the last contest 86-76 in OT. Amherst is definitely the favorite coming into this one, as they will be in ever game unless someone knocks them off. They have far more experience, and as we’ve noted before, the 2015-16 Williams squad is similar in make up to the 2014-15 Amherst team. Dan Aronowitz ’17 plays the role of Connor Green ’16, leading a talented squad deficient of seniors. Simply put, Amherst has the advantage at every position, so a big game from young point guards Chris Galvin ’18 and Bobby Casey ’19 who have had to take over for the oversized production of the injured Mike Greenman ’17. Unless those guys have huge games, it’s going to be over early.

Prediction: Amherst 85 – Williams 73

Colby at Tufts, Saturday 2 PM

Saturday begins with an exciting matchup of two teams trying to prove that they belong. Both could be 1-0 coming in, but don’t surprised if they are both 0-1. That’s the beauty of NESCAC basketball. This should be a fun one to watch as both teams know how to put the ball in the hoop, ranking second (Colby) and third (Tufts) behind Amherst in points per game. In the second game of a back-to-back, the bench becomes more important, so which role player can step up and make the difference will be a difference-maker. Tufts goes a little bit deeper in its rotation, and a guy like Drew Madsen ’17 might need to chip in 10 points or so for the Jumbos. Palleschi is going to be working his butt off as the focal point of the Tufts attack against Bowdoin, and either fatigue or foul trouble could force him to the bench for stretches in this one.

Prediction: Tufts 89 – Colby 87

Hamilton at Wesleyan, Saturday 3 PM

This seems like a slam dunk for the Cards … and I think it probably is. Crazier things have happened, but I don’t see anyone stopping BJ Davis, and I doubt that the Continentals will be really sharp in their second game of the weekend because of their youth and inexperience. The X-factor for Hamilton still has to be Ajani Santos ’16. Santos has been a staple on this team for the past few years, last season averaging 10.5 ppg and 5.6 rpg while starting 23 games. This year he has 1.6 – just 1.6 – ppg and is only on the floor for 13.5 minutes per game. Coach Adam Stockwell wouldn’t reveal what the issue was, but there’s clearly something going on here. Santos has been in the starting lineup the last few games, though, so maybe things are finally coming around. Joseph Kuo ’17 is a strong interior presence for the Cardinals, but as we know their team strength is guard play and the bench doesn’t run very deep, so a coming out party from Santos could swing the tide of what is otherwise bound to be a lopsided affair.

Prediction: Wesleyan 69 – Hamilton 59

Middlebury at Conn College, Saturday 3 PM

A couple of years ago, this game would have been a cake walk for the Panthers. Now, it’s hard to even pick them as a favorite. Conn is still untested, but they have some interesting pieces. Zuri Pavlin is a known commodity, even though his numbers are down so far this year, and Lee Messier ’18 is taking the expected step forward and turning into a go-to scorer, but newcomers Tyler Rowe ’19 and David Labossiere ’19 look like the real deal, too. Forward Isaiah Robinson ’18 missed the first few games of the year, played the next six and then missed the last contest with the Coast Guard, but he’s a solid body that can bang down low and bring toughness, and don’t forget about Bo McKinley ’16, the incumbent at point guard, surpassed by Rowe, who brings three-point shooting off the bench. Conn has all the pieces to pull a fast one on the Panthers. The key for Middlebury is point guard Jake Brown. Perhaps it’s unfair because I watched Joey Kizel ’14 run the show for two years, but my sense is that Brown needs to drive this team if they are going to make it back to the playoffs.

Prediction: Conn College 78 – Middlebury 73

Bowdoin at Bates, Saturday 3 PM

I’m predicting that Tom Palleschi and the Jumbos will be able to stifle the Polar Bears, but I think that Bowdoin will break out in a big way against Bates. Simply put, who is going to guard Lucas Hausman and Jack Simonds? Mike Boornazian is a great offensive player, but I’m not convinced he can stop Hausman, and Simonds is going to be an issue for either Mike Newton ’16 or Marcus Delpeche ’17, whomever Bates chooses to throw at him. The Bobcats don’t even get the benefit of the Alumni Gym crowd, as classes don’t begin again until Monday. It’s an unfortunate time to waste a home weekend for Bates, and I think Bowdoin can take advantage.

Prediction: Bowdoin 81 – Bates 71

Williams at Trinity, Sunday 2 PM

Finally, we get the NESCAC debut of Trinity, last year’s top regular season team. Even though the Bantams lost a few important players, there seemed to be enough holdovers in place for Trinity to stay near the top of the heap. The losses of defensive stalwart Hart Gliedman ’15, multi-talented forward Alex Conaway ’15 and center George Papadeas ’15 have hurt more than expected. As a team, Trinity is still playing strong defense, holding opponents to a mere 35.5 field goal percentage. They just can’t put the ball in the hoop. Starks and Rick Naylor ’16, in particular, need to shoot the ball better, but it could be a big game for Ed Ogundeko ’17. Long an enigma for his impressive rebounding rate in limited minutes, Ogundeko has made some strides offensively out of necessity. He’s a true center, something that is lacking from many NESCAC rosters, and if he can manhandle Williams’ Edward Flynn ’16 then Trinity can shake off the early season struggles and start the NESCAC sched 1-0.

Prediction: Trinity 68 – Williams 63

2016 NbN Preseason All-NESCAC Basketball Teams

Is it any surprise that Lucas Hausman '16 is our choice to repeat as POY? No? Well, sorry to disappoint. He's just too good. (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)
Is it any surprise that Lucas Hausman ’16 is our choice to repeat as POY? No? Well, sorry to disappoint. He’s just too good. (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)

We came to the realization this fall that no matter much we may disagree, and no matter how smart we think we are, and no matter how witty our editorial commentary may be, our end-of-year All-NESCAC decisions aren’t going to be quite as weighty as the official All-NESCAC teams. That’s why we decided to put together an extensive awards list in lieu of the usual All-League format for the football season.

BUT! We remain the one and only place to find the picks for preseason All-League honors. Now you might say, “The season is halfway over. All you have to do is look at the top scorers and project them as All-League studs.” Oh, how wrong you are. NESCAC play is an entirely different beast, and those leaderboards are going to look a good bit different come March. Don’t believe us? Wait and see. These are our predictions for the guys who will win All-NESCAC honors.

First Team

Guard Lucas Hausman ’16 – Bowdoin

This one’s a no-brainer. He was an All-American a year ago, and he’s only gotten better. Despite the target on his back, he’s scored more points per game in fewer minutes and is shooting just as efficiently as a year ago. He was the top scorer in NESCAC games in 2015, and we expect that trend to continue. Hausman scores in unique ways. He’s not a phenomenal long-range shooter and he’s not very tall. What he is able to do is shoot off the dribble and finish in all kinds of traffic. There’s always a place for a guy that can put the ball in the hoop.

Guard BJ Davis ’16 – Wesleyan

What was an equal opportunity, three point guard team a season ago has turned in to the BJ Davis show. Recall for a moment that no Cardinal scored more than 11.9 ppg last season, and it was basically a six-man rotation. This year injuries to Jack Mackey ’16 and Joe Edmonds ’16 have made them ineffective (though Edmonds has shot the ball well percentage-wise), and the Cards have had to reshape their identity as the season has progressed. Through it all, Davis has been a scoring machine. He can shoot from anywhere and go by almost anyone. He has risen to another level.

Guard Connor Green ’16 – Amherst

I hemmed and hawed over this pick for awhile, because Green has a lot of questions around him. Being the primary scorer hasn’t seemed to suit the swingman over the past two seasons. His best work was done as a sophomore when he averaged 17.9 ppg and shot 44 percent. Before all of you in LJ country pick up your pitch forks, though, recognize that I’m still picking Green to be a First-Teamer. As the best player on the best team (so we think), Green is going to be worthy of some accolades. He’s still a matchup nightmare, and a great rebounder for his position. Johnny McCarthy ’18 might be ready to challenge Green for the title of top Jeff by the end of the season, and the wealth of talent around Green might cut into his numbers a little bit, but I believe his talent will shine through this season.

Center Tom Palleschi ’17 – Tufts

What a boon for Tufts to get this guy back after a heart condition kept him out of the 2013-14 campaign. Palleschi’s light feet allow him to slip right by lumbering big men and just get buckets. The Jumbos don’t have much in the way of size around Palleschi since Hunter Sabety – as we all know – departed, so his play is that much more impressive and important. He’s no slouch on defense either. Palleschi is at or near the top of the charts in every rebounding category and in blocked shots. The one other stat in which he leads the league disqualifications, i.e. foul outs. That won’t stop him from putting up big, First Team numbers, but it might stop Tufts from going deep in the NESCAC tournament.

Center Chris Hudnut ’16 – Colby

This pick is a bit speculative, as he joins Davis as the two guys who didn’t make All-NESCAC teams last season, and right now his numbers are not First Team worthy, and it’s hard for big guys to get All-League recognition. Last year five guards were First Teamers. However, I have faith that his best is yet to come. Hudnut can be an offensive juggernaut at times (see: 38 vs. Curry on Nov. 21 and 21 vs. Bowdoin on Nov. 5). However, he has disappeared against good frontcourts, too (see: four points on 1-6 shooting against Bates on Nov. 5). There are half a dozen front courts in the NESCAC (and that’s a lot, considering there are only 11 teams) with the ability to shut down Hudnut. Can he turn up the intensity in those games, or will he fail to realize his potential?

Second Team

Guard Jaquann Starks ’16 – Trinity

The hometown hero was a First Teamer last season because of the way he lead Trinity to the No. 1 seed in the NESCAC tournament, so this might be seen as a knock on Starks, but more than anything it’s a testament to how his supporting cast has elevated its game. The offense always ran more smoothly last season when the slender Andrew Hurd ’16 handled the basketball, and he’s really taken over signal-caller duties full-time this year, starting most games and averaging 5.2 apg. Perhaps Starks is still adjusting to the different role, because his percentages are down, but he’s still an elite player and adds intensity on the defensive side as the face of Trinity’s ferocious defense. Opponents are shooting just 35.4 percent from the field against the Bantams. That’s not from three-point land. That’s from the field. In case you were wondering, yes, that number was tops in the D-III nation as of Jan. 4.

Guard Johnny McCarthy ’18 – Amherst

McCarthy was the 2014-15 Rookie of the Year. In 2015-16, he will make his first of three appearances to come on the All-NESCAC list. He’s an iron horse, playing over 30.0 mpg, something that might not cause the coaches to vote for him, but it should, and in addition to scoring and rebounding possesses the unique skill of being able to steal the basketball. Steals are something that are often a result of luck – a tip from one player turns into a steal from another – but McCarthy is a legit threat to pick pockets and passing lanes alike.

Guard Dan Aronowitz ’17 – Williams

As good as this Williams team can be, they don’t have the senior leadership that characterized the last two editions of the Ephs – from Mike Mayer ’14 and Taylor Epley ’14 to Dan Wohl ’15 and Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15, there has been a put-the-team-on-your-back senior tandem the last two seasons. Despite the difficulty of emerging from a no-pressure, third- or fourth-option role into indisputable superstar, Aronowitz is better than ever. He’s shooting 52.9 percent from the field and 43.5 percent from three while scoring 17.5 ppg. Oh yeah, he’s got 7.5 boards per game, too. Aronowtiz’s situation reminds me of Green a year ago, who was a junior leading a team devoid of impact seniors. He doesn’t have Green’s track record, but he could match the LJ’s 2014-15 stat line.

Guard Mike Boornazian ’16 – Bates

The Delpeche brothers are maybe the most fun duo to watch just because of their size and backstory as twins, but Bates will go only as far as Boornazian can take them. He has played second fiddle to Graham Safford ’15 the last few seasons, putting up solid numbers but deferring in the big moment. No more. The Bobcats are Boornazian’s team, and his current mark of 15.6 ppg could go up in conference play. He’ll tack on his fair share of rebounds and dimes as well, but this is one player whose intangibles and passion are noticeable.

Forward Jeff Racy ’16 – Amherst

Perhaps the biggest stretch of anyone chosen for these two teams, Racy has elevated his game to be Amherst’s second-highest scorer – more than McCarthy, more than big man David George ’17, more than D-I transfers Eric Conklin ’17 and Jayde Dawson ’18. Even though defenses know exactly what’s coming, they can’t stop it. Racy takes 8.7 shots per game and 7.2 of them are three pointers, which he is hitting at a 54.4 percent clip. Because he stands 6’5″, his range pulls an opposing swingman out of the paint, where guys like George, Green and Dawson do some of their best work. Racy’s ability to score in bunches will propel him to his first All-NESCAC honors.

Awards Predictions:

Player of the Year: Lucas Hausman

Hausman will repeat. There’s no reason to think that his play will drop during conference play.

Defensive Player of the Year: Jaquann Starks

This is always tough to predict. The past few years it was made much easier by the 7’0″ presence of John Swords ’15, but now there are a bevy of players who could deserve the honor, including some guys – i.e. Jake Brown ’17, David George – who aren’t even on our All-NESCAC roster. However, the honors are likely to go to someone who makes either the First or Second team, so we’re going with Starks, the front man for the league’s best defense.

Rookie of the Year: Kyle Scadlock ’19

Contributor Rory Ziomek just highlighted the best diaper dandies so far this season, which narrows down the field somewhat. The ROY battle is really a two-horse race between Scadlock and Bowdoin’s Jack Simonds ’19. Simonds is scoring at a better clip right now, but Scadlock adds the rebounding factor, and whomever wins the award will be more than worthy.

Coach of the Year: Damien Strahorn, Colby

This is basically like picking the team with the lowest expectations that will make a run for the NESCAC title. Strahorn benefits from having a five-man starting lineup of all seniors, but he’s done well to get those kids to this point. Now if he can just teach them to play defense, this will be a lock.