Dave Hixon lead a young but talented team. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics
Season: 21-8 (6-4), lost NESCAC Championship to Wesleyan, lost in NCAA Second Round to St. John Fisher College
Nobody lost more from last year – not Williams who graduated two 1,000-point scorers and lost Duncan Robinson to Michigan, not Hamilton that saw the NESCAC’s scoring champ transfer, not Middlebury that lost All-NESCAC point guard Joey Kizel ’14 and a slew of other talented players – nobody lost more than Amherst. There was the loss of Tom Killian ’14, a fantastic forward who could score and rebound, the graduation of David Kalema ’14, another guy who could stretch the floor and make shots, and even the end of Connor Gach’s ’14 career, a role player that probably would have been a starter on half of the teams in the NESCAC. But nothing hurt more than the graduation of Amherst all-time leading scorer, two-time NESCAC Player of the Year, three-time D3Hoops.com All-American, D3Hoops.com Player of the Year and National Association of Basketball Coaches Player of the Year, Aaron Toomey ’14. Have I made my point?
So, you could have forgiven this team for going through a down year, especially when the only senior on the roster, Alex Levine ’15, wasn’t expected to play major minutes. Two consecutive losses at home in December by 20 and 19 points, respectively, showed that Amherst was still very much a work in progress. The Jeffs continued to struggle but they still managed to beat some over-matched opponents in non-conference play which would end up being crucial for Amherst making the NCAAs as an at-large team. Halfway through NESCAC play, the Jeffs were 2-3 and coming off of a 70-54 loss at home to Trinity. The rise of Reid Berman ’17 to the starting lineup helped settle down Amherst and led to a six game winning streak that saw the Jeffs hit their stride. After a setback against Middlebury that cost them a home playoff game, they stormed into the NESCAC finals before going cold from outside. Ultimately, the Jeffs fell short of a fourth straight NESCAC title, and missed out on a third straight Final Four appearance with a loss to No. 20 St. John Fisher College in the Second Round. Nevertheless, Amherst proved that they don’t rebuild, they reload.
Coach David Hixon did this quite literally not only by bringing in NESCAC Rookie of the Year Johnny McCarthy ’18, but also by courting two Division-I transfers in Jayde Dawson ’18 and Eric Conklin ’17. Both had their ups and downs, but showed flashes of brilliance in postseason play.
“It’s tough transferring, both [Jayde and Eric] came from schools that are much different from [Amherst], in a sense they’re still freshman but at the same time they’ve got a year of college ball experience under their belts … Although they’re older, they’re still new and it takes a while to figure out life here at Amherst both on and off the court.” – Jeff Racy ’17
Racy was impressed with the way his transfer teammates adjusted to Amherst life, but they should have been equally impressed with Racy’s play. The long small forward was one of the scariest deep threats in the NESCAC, and set an Amherst single-game record with 10 three-pointers against Conn. College. Center David George ’17 continued his defensive dominance and made strides offensively. The Berman-Dawson combination showed that when they’re good, they’re very good. And the rest of the roster showed enough to make Amherst fans and players feel good about this team’s chances for next year.
“Going forward, I think this team has the potential to win a NESCAC and possibly a national championship,” Racy said.
High point: 86-67 OT Win at home over rival Williams on Jan. 21
After a loss in the NESCAC matchup by a single point 11 days before, the Jeffs were refocused when Williams came to town. The Jeffs got their best home crowd of the season, which helped spur them to a 12-2 advantage in overtime. Any game with the Ephs is bound to have a little extra something around it, but this season the two contests were especially dramatic.
MVP: Forward Connor Green ’16
Throw out the last couple games of the season when Green hit a wall, because the swingman is undeniably among the five best players in the NESCAC. He can shoot the three, rebound like a big man, use his body to finish through contact and matchup up with the opponent’s best scorer. Green took on a lot more responsibility this season after a spectacular 2014 class graduated, and much like his counterpart in western Mass., Dan Wohl ’15, he answered the bell with authority.
Player to Watch in 2015-16: F/C Ben Pollack ’15
The junior big man was a captain for this season’s squad, yet he only got on the floor for 11 games as he struggled to come back from an ACL tear. Folks around Amherst know that Pollack has the ability to be a difference maker in the NESCAC, an above average defender who also passes well from the high post, and adding a healthy Pollack to a suddenly deep front court that includes two big bodies in George and Conklin as well as the more slender Jacob Nabatoff ’17 and the impending arrival of the highly-touted 6’10” center Joe Schneider ’19 could be enough for Amherst to stake a claim to the league’s best corps of big men.
If you were wondering, “What is Sage?”, you’re not alone. As a matter of fact, the Sage Colleges basketball program is in just its sixth season and has never made the NCAA Tournament before. The conference from which Sage hails, the Skyline Conference, is in its 25th season of operation. Compare those credentials to Amherst, which has been to back-to-back Final Fours, won two national championships, travelled to 17 NCAA Tournaments and compiled a .679 (36-16) winning percentage in the tournament, and you might think that Sage doesn’t have any place on the court in this game. But don’t expect Sage to be timid in this one. Last year’s Skyline Conference champion, SUNY-Purchase, won its NCAA opening round game. And like many teams in the NCAA field, Sage needed to win its conference tournament to get into the big dance, so the Sage Gators are riding high.
The Sage players are following Coach Barnes’ example of shooting for greatness. As Skyline Conference Player of the Year Kai Deans ’15 said, “Coach told us from the get-go, nothing less than a championship is what we’re trying to achieve.”
Kai Deans ’15 will present a unique challenge for Amherst’s David George ’17. But the opposite applies as well. (Courtesy of The Sage Colleges)
In a way, both head coaches are synonymous with their programs. David Hixon, an Amherst alum, has an unmatched pedigree, and in his previous 37 years at the helm twice won the National Association of Basketball Coaches National Coach of the Year Award. On the flip side, Brian Barnes has been the head coach of the Gators since the program’s inception in 2009-10, when the team went an abysmal 5-18. Now both coaches are on even footing as they get set to clash in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
Three Storylines to Watch
1. Which version of the D-I transfers shows up for Amherst?
Okay, a bit of a double dip here (see our Amherst X-Factors below), but there’s really no telling what kind of performance the Jeffs are going to get from Jayde Dawson ’18 and Eric Conklin ’17. Without those two, the only real scoring threats are All-NESCAC First Teamer Connor Green ’16 and NESCAC ROY Johnny McCarthy ’18, followed by the inconsistency of David George ’17 and sharpshooter Jeff Racy ’17. With Dawson and Conklin in the mix, Dave Hixon can put five players on the floor who can all do damage offensively. And on defense, Dawson creates more havoc than Berman, while another big body down low could be critical in slowing down Deans and forward Melvin Ford ’15.
2. How legit is Sage’s defense?
The Sage Colleges led all of D-III in field goal percentage defense, but in reality they played one of the weakest schedules in the country (.455 SOS as of February 25), and the Skyline Conference didn’t feature a lot of great three-point shooting teams. Expect the Gators’ post presence to be strong. Center Jacob Sopchak ’15 plays just 14.7 minutes per game yet blocks 2.1 shots per contest. But if Amherst can make some three point shots early they could open up a gap for good. Six-four swingman Travis Gill ’16 might be tasked with shutting down Green. Gill was honored as the Skyline Conference’s Defensive Player of the Year. Green’s main advantage over the Brooklyn native, as usual, will be his size. Gill checks in at 180 lbs. while Green is comfortably over two bills.
3. The head coaching matchup
We mentioned it briefly in the intro, but David Hixon and Brian Barnes are basically on opposite ends of the head coaching spectrum. Hixon has the accolades, Barnes has the hunger. And yet, some criticized Hixon in Amherst’s NESCAC Championship game loss to Wesleyan, especially the decision to keep Green on the bench for the majority of the second half, presumably because the junior was hurting the flow of the Jeffs’ offense with bad shots. It will be interesting to see whether Barnes can throw something at Amherst that will catch Hixon off guard. When you’ve coached over 1,000 games at this level, not much surprises you.
David Hixon’s Stoic expression is no coincidence. The Amherst coach has done this plenty of times before. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)
Amherst X-Factors: PF Eric Conklin ’17 and PG Jayde Dawson ’18
Conklin and Dawson had been, quite frankly, disappointments until the NESCAC Tournament rolled around. Then Conklin went 9-9 from the field in the NESCAC Championship (only his third game in double figures all season) and Dawson scored 35 points on 12-26 (46.2 percent) shooting in the final two games of the Tournament, and played 20 and 30 minutes after not seeing more than 16 minutes of action since January 17 against Bates. Sage has two very prolific big men (more on that later), but almost no front court depth, so if Conklin can play like he did against Wesleyan it will be a huge boost for the Jeffs. Not to knock Reid Berman ’17, who is a great distributor and has been playing solid basketball for Coach David Hixon, Dawson is one of the more talented point guards in the NESCAC. He has great athleticism and the ability (often unrealized this season) to score the ball in multiple ways, as well as a good sense of when to interrupt the passing lane on defense.
Sage X-Factor: Physicality
The Sage front court is not deep, but it’s strong. The Gators out-rebounded their opponents by more than 10 boards a game and are adept at getting opposing big men into foul trouble. George can’t get frustrated and start hacking away. If he gets into foul trouble early and Conklin doesn’t play like the Championship game version of himself then the Gators will have Amherst right where they want them.
What to Expect
Stopping Skyline Conference Player of the Year Deans (17.3 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 1.3 BPG) might be George’s toughest assignment of the season. George can match the Florida import’s height, but he gives up probably 40 pounds to Deans. The front court of Deans and Ford is probably on par or better than a healthy Sabety-Palleschi combination or the Delpeche duo. And both are very much interior players. Defensively the pair was a big reason why Sage led the country in field goal percentage defense. As we learned from watching Bowdoin this year, when you can’t get into the paint, it’s hard to score.
David George ’17 is known for his defense (4.9 DRPG, 2.0 BPG), and he will need to be at his best against Sage (Courtesy of Rob Mattson/The Amherst Student)
I would never predict a blowout in a Division-III NCAA Tournament game, but I think Amherst has to be the heavy favorite in this one. Amherst’s strength on offense, three-point shooting, is Sage’s defensive weakness (or lesser of its defensive strengths). The Jeffs don’t need to go up against Deans, Ford and Sopchak. Instead they can work it around the outside and get open looks. Of course, relying on the three ball makes one susceptible to cold streaks, and Deans and Ford will certainly be going at George and whomever else Coach Hixon decides to throw down there with him, so I could foresee some foul trouble for the Jeffs’ big men that could accentuate the Gators’ front court advantage. The Gators attempted 28.7 foul shots per game, 7.3 of those coming from Deans. Trinity led the NESCAC with 16.7 foul shots attempted per game. Amherst could be surprised a little bit by the Gators’ physicality, and if they don’t rebound quickly from the first blow then Sage might pull away with the upset. The Gators will want to push the pace as well, but Amherst should be used to that, as a lot of teams in the NESCAC play the same style, and the Jeffs themselves are a fast-paced team. Andre Robinson ’16, among others, will be the one forcing the ball up the court for the Gators. Robinson not only makes plays for the big men, but can score himself. The junior guard was named the Skyline Championship Most Outstanding Player with 17 points, 12 boards, five assists and two steals in the championship game.
Prediction
For all of the reasons above, this game makes me a bit nervous. Nonetheless, Coach Hixon and his players have been through this before, now in their fourth straight NCAA Tournament, so they ought to be prepared for anything. That’s why I think the skill and depth of Amherst outweighs the tough interior play of Sage, and the Jeffs roll on to Saturday.
The 2014-15 NESCAC men’s basketball season was marked by parity and unpredictability. But through it all, a few players played exceptionally well all season long. As Wesleyan showed in their title run, the five best individual players do not always make up the best team (not a dig at Wesleyan, who is filled with talented and hard-nosed basketball players), but I think any team in Division-III would be hard-pressed to compete with this NESCAC All-Star squad.
NbN Player of the Year: G Lucas Hausman ’16
Lucas Hausman ’16 rose above the rest down the stretch this season. (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics/CIPhotography.com)
NbN Defensive Player of the Year: C John Swords ’15
John Swords ’15 had this kind of height advantage in every game he played this season. It’s tough to beat a team when you can’t get a clean look inside the paint. (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics/CIPhotography.com)
NbN Rookie of the Year: G Johnny McCarthy ’18
Johnny McCarthy ’18 showed that he has the tools to be a complete player in the NESCAC, scoring 10.7 PPG, shooting 35.5 percent from deep, snagging 6.7 RPG, dishing out 2.4 APG and swiping 1.8 SPG. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)
NbN Coach of the Year: Joe Reilly, Wesleyan
Coach Joe Reilly out-coached his competitors on the way to earning Wesleyan University’s first-ever NESCAC Championship. (Courtesy of NESCAC.com)
NbN First Team All-NESCAC
Graham Safford ’15 (Courtesy of Bates Athletics)
G Graham Safford ’15
Safford gets the nod over some other deserving point guards for his durability and leadership of a Bates team that will be playing in the NCAA Tournament. It’s the age old debate – should Most Valuable Player (or All-Conference) awards go to the best overall player or the best player on the best team? In this case, Safford does get a little benefit of the doubt for his team’s success, but no one else played close to the minutes that Safford played, and the senior leader kept up the intensity on both ends of the court all season long, leading the Bobcats to the second-most wins in school history (20 in 2005-06 under, you guessed it, Wesleyan head coach Joe Reilly) and the second NCAA Tournament in school history (Bates played in the 1961 NCAA Men’s College Division Tournament, now Division-II).
Lucas Hausman ’16 (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)
G Lucas Hausman ’16
Hausman went from solid upstart to our NESCAC Player of the Year in a short period of time. While winning three straight NESCAC Player of the Week awards, the first time that feat has been accomplished in NESCAC history, Hausman averaged 27.8 points per game while shooting 57.3 percent (63-110) from the field and maintaining near perfection from the charity stripe (83.3 percent, 30-36). Hausman has a unique ability to draw contact in the lane and finish shots off balance. Hausman finished the season as the scoring champion by a wide margin in conference games, and did it while shooting nearly 50 percent overall, helping carry a squad that suffered some critical injuries all the way to the Pool C bubble. Unfortunately, Bowdoin missed out on the NCAA Tournament. Fortunately, though, the NESCAC has one more year to enjoy watching Hausman play. Or unfortunately, if you’re an opposing coach.
Dan Wohl ’15 (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)
F Dan Wohl ’15
Wohl was the POY favorite before Hausman caught fire, but nonetheless the senior put up a great campaign. Wohl was the fourth-leading scorer on the NCAA runner-up squad a year ago, but took on a lot more responsibility this season and responded incredibly well. As a case study of Wohl’s versatility – Wohl had a tough day from the field in the Ephs’ Quarterfinal loss to Bowdoin, yet the senior racked up 10 boards and seven assists against just a single turnover. Wohl also rebounded the ball extremely well and presented one of the toughest defensive challenges for opposing players in the league. His athleticism and length allowed Wohl to shutdown opposing team’s 2-4’s. For example, Wohl shut down Second-Teamer Dylan Sinnickson ’15 in Williams’ matchup with the Panthers to the tune of a 3-11 FG performance and 0-4 from deep. It may be even tougher for Williams to replace this year’s class of Wohl, Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15 and Ryan Kilcullen ’15 than last year’s, if that’s even imaginable.
Connor Green (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)
F Connor Green ’16
Green came into the NESCAC’s final weekend as possibly hotter than Hausman, but hit a serious road block against Bowdoin and Wesleyan. Give those teams credit for forcing Green into tough shots and long threes, attempts that at other times Green seemed to hit as easily as lay ups. When you talk about guys that can score in different ways, Green is tops on the list. He handles the ball like a point guard, though he stands 6′ 4″, and his 200+ lbs. frame means that he can bully most defenders and is unaffected by contact inside. Not to mention his 48.2 three-point percentage in NESCAC games. Green is already comfortably a part of Amherst’s 1,000 point club, and if he stays healthy could find himself as the second-highest scorer in Amherst history by the time his career ends.
John Swords ’15 (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)
C John Swords ’15
Swords was the only member of the 2014 All-NESCAC First Team to return to the league this season, and his play warrants another nomination to the All-NESCAC team. We were concerned by the health of Swords’ knees when the season began, and even though he was less than 100 percent all season long, Swords played more than 30 minutes per game and discouraged teams from entering the paint all year. Swords grabbed 9.8 rebounds and tossed 2.1 blocks per game while putting up productive, if unspectacular numbers from the field. Swords scored “only” 12.9 points per game, but he did do it on 69.0 percent shooting, the fourth-highest mark in the NCAA as of March 1 among qualified players.
NbN Second Team All-NESCAC
Joseph Lin (Courtesy of Hamilton Athletics)
G Joseph Lin ’15
If we were giving out the award, Lin would easily be the NESCAC’s Most Improved Player. Despite a late season injury that cut his campaign short, Lin was among the best distributors in the league on a team that we didn’t expect would have a ton of great shooters. Lin was in the top-ten nationally in assists per game, slightly ahead of Safford and Middlebury’s Jake Brown ’17, while also shooting for a better percentage from the field than either player.
Luke Westman ’16 (Courtesy of Colby Athletics)
G Luke Westman ’16
Two point guards make our All-NESCAC Second Team, but there should be no complaining as Westman was equally as impressive as Lin. Westman’s 73.2 percent from the field is basically unheard of from a guard, even though he just barely missed the cut to qualify for NCAA statistics (five made field goals per game). Westman is one of the most athletic guards in the NESCAC. He will return next year to lead inarguably the most talented class of rising seniors in the league.
Dylan Sinnickson (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)
F Dylan Sinnickson ’15
Sinnickson looked like a lock for All-NESCAC First Team consideration for much of the season, but his scoring took a major hit in conference games. Nonetheless his ability to grab rebounds (10.5 per game) was a difference-maker for a Middlebury team that lacked any consistency from its big men. Remember the name, because Sinnickson has one more year of NCAA eligibility, and there’s a better than 50-50 chance that the athletic swingman will be on the court for another NCAA college next season.
Tom Palleschi ’17 (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)
F Tom Palleschi ’17
Palleschi was a wild card coming into this season after missing all of 2013-14, but the reclassified sophomore didn’t miss a beat and improved on his statistics from his freshman year campaign, averaging 12.0 PPG and 6.1 RPG. Most impressively, once Hunter Sabety ’17 went down with a knee injury, Palleschi stepped up his game and became Tufts’ most important player, scoring double figures in seven of nine contests counting forward from the first game without Sabety. What’s more, Palleschi was a force defensively, rejecting 2.4 shots per game, 0.3 more than the seven-footer Swords. If anyone can challenge Green for most-diversified offensive game, it’s Palleschi, who can play with his back to the basket or face up from 15 feet away.
Zuri Pavlin ’17 (Courtesy of Conn. College Athletics)
F Zuri Pavlin ’17
Amidst a disappointing season for the Camels, Pavlin shined once again, surpassing the Conn. College single-season rebounding record that he set last year as a freshman and leading the team in scoring with 13.7 points per game. Pavlin doesn’t have amazing height (6′ 5″) or strength, but he has an incredible knack for using his body to get rebounds. Watch out next year, as one more year under the belts of Pavlin and front court mate Isaiah Robinson ’18, a bruiser in his own right, could make for a fearsome front line.
While Connor Green ’16 is in the forefront of our minds, the battle between David George ’17 and John Swords ’15 also looms large. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)
The late game Saturday pits two teams in Bowdoin and Amherst that played some of their best basketball of the season in the quarterfinals. The Polar Bears overcame the hot shooting of Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15 because of great games from both John Swords ’15 and Lucas Hausman ’16. Meanwhile, the Lord Jeffs’ second game against Tufts was the exact opposite of the first one with Amherst routing the Jumbos in Medford. Connor Green ’16 is absolutely on fire scoring the ball averaging 28.2 PPG in his last five games against NESCAC opponents.
Last time they played: 81-66 Amherst
These two met the first time in Amherst on Saturday, January 31. The Lord Jeffs held a double-digit lead for part of the first half, but the Polar Bears fought back to make it only a three point deficit at halftime. Hausman kept Bowdoin in the game with 15 points, but Green was even better with 17 first half points. Early in the second, Green took over for Amherst and scored 15 points in the first 7:22 of the half to push the Amherst lead up to 14 points. Bowdoin would never truly threaten again with the Amherst lead never getting below nine, and the Jeffs were able to coast to a comfortable victory. Hausman also scored only four second half points. Johnny McCarthy ’18 deserves credit for slowing down Hausman, and the freshman had a pretty good game besides just his defense, finishing with 15 points, eight rebounds and seven assists. Both teams shot awfully from the free throw line as the Jeffs were a putrid 10-23 (43.5 percent) and Bowdoin shot 10-18 (55.6 percent).
Keep in mind that Bowdoin was coming off of an overtime game against Trinity the night before and was playing on the road. That might have contributed to them shooting only 2-15 from three. Still, Amherst matches up very well with Bowdoin because their two best defensive players, McCarthy and David George ’17, correspond perfectly with Bowdoin’s two biggest weapons, Swords and Hausman. Both teams have gone 5-1 since their first game and seem to have figured out exactly how to play with each other.
Bryan Hurley ’15 (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)
Bowdoin X-factor: Point Guard Bryan Hurley ’15
Swords and Hausman are definitely Bowdoin’s two most important players, but Hurley is a very close third. The Watertown, MA native does a little bit of everything for Bowdoin, but he is most effective when he is put into pick-and-roll situations. Hurley is particularly adept at getting the ball to Swords up high where the big man can throw down easy dunks. In conference play his assist-to-turnover ratio was 3.1. After putting a slow start to the season behind him, Hurley now is confident about getting into the lane and absorbing contact. Amherst is unlikely to let Hausman win the game by himself so Hurley will have to shoot the ball well from both beyond the arc and at the rim. Though he is a mostly pass-first point guard, Hurley tends to pick his spots to attack. He is never afraid to shoot from deep and will often take contested jump shots if he is ‘feeling it.’
Johnny McCarthy ’18 (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)
Amherst X-factor: Shooting Guard Johnny McCarthy ’18
The presumed NESCAC Rookie of the Year will guard Hausman, the clear leader right now for NESCAC Player of the Year. This will be a fun battle to watch all afternoon. McCarthy tied for the league lead in steals because of his outstanding length. He has exceptional timing as a defender and his quickness allows him to guard anyone from point guards to small forwards. The freshman is no defensive specialist though. He finished third on the team in scoring with 10.6 PPG, but his offensive game slipped later in the season. He shot only 33.3 percent from the field in conference games. His offensive game is predicated on rhythm which is one of the reasons why he struggles from the free throw line despite being a confident shooter. Despite his struggles, McCarthy led the Jeffs in minutes despite there being a bevy of talented perimeter players on the roster.
Three Questions
1. Can David George ’17 guard John Swords ’15 one-on-one?
Swords had his best offensive game of the season last week going 10-10 from the field, but George will present much more of a challenge. In their two match-ups so far, George has done a good job of pushing Swords out of the paint. The sophomore has gained a lot of strength though he still gives up a good deal of weight to Swords. The best way to defend Swords is to keep him from getting the ball in a deep position. If Swords gets the ball close to the basket, it is virtually impossible to stop him. Even though George has the length and ability to block Swords, the 7’0″ footer is too patient with the ball. The Amherst big man doesn’t need to stop Swords completely. George just has to limit him and make other players on Bowdoin beat the Jeffs.
2. Is Connor Green ’16 unguardable against a zone defense?
Last week we broke down how Bowdoin’s zone works with players scrambling on the perimeter. It works for the most part, but as Rooke-Ley showed in the first half, a knockdown shooter can neuter the effectiveness of it. In the second half Bowdoin adjusted and made sure to communicate so that somebody was always on Rooke-Ley. Though Rooke-Ley is a better pure shooter, Green might be an even harder task to guard because he shoots his three pointers from so freaking far away. Honestly, he regularly pulls the trigger from a couple of feet beyond the NBA three point line. When he gets into the zone, literally everything he throws up goes in, even if he needs to bank in a three. Zones, even ones as flexible as Bowdoin’s, do not account for someone stretching the floor like Green does. Expect Green to get and take some open looks from way out early.
Jake Donnelly ’16 gets Connor Green ’16 and Johnny McCarthy ’18 in the air. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)
3. Which role player will step up?
Even though both team’s rely on their stars heavily for scoring, secondary players will have to make shots as well. For Amherst those plaers are Jeff Racy ’17 and Jayde Dawson ’18. Racy is a straight shooter who made the second most threes per game in conference play. He gets a lot of open looks because of all the attention given to McCarthy and Green. Dawson meanwhile has never really figured out how to play within the Amherst system, but he is still so talented that he can go on short stretches where he looks like one of the best players on the floor. Meanwhile the two guys to keep an eye on for Bowdoin are Matt Palecki ’16 and Liam Farley ’18. A big part of Palecki’s improved play this season is his ability to hit threes as the power forward. Farley is a talented freshman who can force bad shots and have careless turnovers but also represents Bowdoin’s best scoring option off the bench. The stars will dominate most of the game, but how those players fill in the shadows is also important.
What to Expect
Amherst just looked incredible last weekend in blowing out Tufts. There is no question that they are the more talented team top-to-bottom. Yet you could easily argue that Bowdoin has the better point guard, better center and better pure scorer. The thing is that all three of Hurley, Swords and Hausman will have to play well for Bowdoin to win. The Jeffs certainly need Green to have a good performance, but they can survive any other player struggling because there are so many others capable of stepping up. Expect a game of runs with one team jabbing and the other answering back.
We have alluded to Hausman heavily throughout the preview but haven’t talked much about him specifically. He was special against Williams throwing up a relatively quiet 37. The Jeffs have to work to keep him off of the free throw line and out of transition because he is pretty much automatic in those situations. Point guard Reid Berman ’17 has to use his size and strength advantage over Hurley to force his way into the lane and make Swords guard him. That will draw in the defense and leave Racy or Green open on the perimeter. Nobody shot or made as many as threes as the Jeffs did in NESCAC play. With Swords in the middle of the Bowdon defense, they are likely to bomb away early and often.
Dave Hixon and Tim Gilbride are the two best in-game coaches in the NESCAC. The game might come down to who makes the better halftime adjustment. Hixon has been to tons of NESCAC semifinals, but he has rarely had a team this young. The veteran Polar Bears have never made it this far in the tournament. The recent Bowdoin success has come mostly at home and they haven’t played a NESCAC opponent away from Brunswick since they last met Amherst. This game is close to a toss-up. We give the slightest of edges to Bowdoin because Swords is such a difference maker in the middle.
The disappointment was evident for Adam Philpott ’15 and Co. after the loss on Saturday, but Bates still resides on the Pool C bubble for the NCAA Tournament. (Courtesy of Daryn Slover for Bates College)
It was a wild quarterfinals Saturday in the NESCAC, and we laid out our initial reactions in this video Saturday night, but we’ve now had a bit of time to digest all the action and think about how those results will impact Championship Weekend. We had two games go as expected with #1 Trinity and #2 Bowdoin sealing victories, and two underdogs win on the road in hostile environments.
Stock Up
The NbN Team
I got so caught up in the excitement of Saturday’s games that I almost didn’t realize that as a team we went 4-0 in our predictions, and Adam’s snipe of the Wesleyan upset was really impressive. He almost pinned the score, too. Obviously, no one wants to read about us, they want to read about the players. But I thought we deserved a quick little pat on the back, so excuse our self-indulgence.
Amherst Center David George ’17
Back to business now. George was an animal on Saturday. I don’t know if the big man reads the blog, but maybe he got a little riffed that I called out his offensive game in my Amherst-Tufts preview. Well, touché, my friend. George went 6-13 from the field and 7-8 from the stripe for 19 points in addition to 10 rebounds and two rejections. He was able to stay out of foul trouble, as well, which shouldn’t go overlooked given the Twin Towers with which he was forced to match up (though Hunter Sabety ’17 was far below 100 percent). As I said in the game preview, a productive George arguably makes Amherst the favorite for the NESCAC Championship. He will need to play well against Bowdoin’s seven-footer, John Swords ’15, and if the Lord Jeffs get through that game he will have another tall order if he goes against the strong Trinity frontcourt. If Wesleyan were to pull off another upset and meet Amherst in the championship George will still be an x-factor because the Cardinals’ strength is the backcourt, meaning George would have the opportunity to dominate.
Class of 2016 Player of the Year Candidates: Lucas Hausman ’16 and Connor Green ’16
Adam wrote earlier this year about the talented junior class in the NESCAC this year when Green topped 1,000 points in his career, and the class of 2016 has not slowed down, especially not these two. I think writer Peter Lindholm described it best via Twitter:
@CACSportsBlog Hausman stole Wohl's game, his POY trophy, and reports say he's about to steal his girl
Hausman has now claimed a commanding lead in the scoring race, and will almost definitely end up with the crown unless he goes ice cold this weekend. His point totals since January 24 at Colby: 24, 30, 19, 32, 21, 44, 16, 17 and 37. And he’s not a phenomenal outside shooter. He gets most of his buckets by getting into the lane, drawing contact and finishing contested shots. When he gets to the line he is nearly automatic (88.0 percent on the year). And he’s been Bowdoin’s only consistent scorer all season.
Green’s advantage is his size and ability to rebound. Johnny McCarthy ’18 and Dan Wohl ’15 are the only perimeter players with more rebounds than Green. Green also stretches the floor a little better as he’s knocking down over 40 percent of his trey balls.
Both of these guys are phenomenal players capable of taking over games, and I expect fireworks when they go at it on Saturday.
Wesleyan Forward Joe Edmonds ’16
Head Coach Joe Reilly has settled on a starting five that rarely leaves the floor. All fives of Reilly’s starters against Bates played at least 29 minutes, and for Edmonds, who has started 14 of 25 games this year, that was his third consecutive game starting and playing over 30 minutes. His two highest-scoring games have come over that stretch as well. The Cardinals essentially run out three point guards in Harry Rafferty ’17, BJ Davis ’16 and Jack Mackey ’16, so there are a lot of drive and kick opportunities, and Edmonds, as the best three point shooter on the roster, really has the ability to make an impact for the Cardinals. He did just that in the win over Bates, leading the Cards with 22 points and going 5-6 from deep.
Stock Down
Offense of the Trinity Frontcourt
Trinity was looking unbeatable recently, coupling a suddenly explosive offense with its usual lockdown D, but the Bantams put up a mediocre 66 points against a Colby team whose tallest impact player, besides Sam Willson ’16, is its point guard, Luke Westman ’16. The combination of Alex Conaway ’15, George Papadeas ’15, Shay Ajayi ’16 and Ed Ogundeko ’17 isn’t exactly known for its collective offensive skill set, and the big guys didn’t play badly on Saturday (combined 11-22 from the field), but each and every one of them had size and strength advantages over their defenders and didn’t dominate like they should have. Down the stretch Ogundeko made a big impact with 11 points in the second half, but he was the only one to make a difference. The defense is fine, and will still give the Bantams a chance to win it all, but they will need some low-post scoring to win two games next weekend.
Amherst Guard Jeff Racy ’17
Since exploding for 30 points on 10-14 three-point shooting at Conn. College on February 6, Racy is 9-27 (33.3 percent) from deep. For a 41.3 percent three-point shooter on the season, that is not so great. I had Racy as my x-factor in the Lord Jeffs’ matchup with Tufts. As it turned out they didn’t need much from Racy as the game was over before it even started, but going forward, Green and Racy are the only guys that scare opposing defenses when they rise up from beyond the arch, so Amherst needs Racy to get hot once again.
Wesleyan Point Guard Triumvirate
Mackey and the Cards pulled off the big upset against the Bobcats, despite poor shooting from the Wesleyan guards. (Courtesy of Daryn Slover for Bates College)
Mackey made it into our Stock Up section last week, and he had another fine game on Saturday against Bates (18 points, 7-18 FG, 4-12 3PT FG, 6 rebounds), but his running mates, Davis and Rafferty, were anemic on the offensive end. They’re both really quality shooters so to see them go so cold was a surprise. I have a lot of concerns for Wesleyan this weekend. They’re undersized on the perimeter, they rely on the three-point shot, they have little depth, and they don’t have a clear go-to guy that they can hand the ball to at the end of a game. Of course that’s not always necessary. I’m sure that any of the trio would be comfortable with the ball in his hands in the final seconds. But Coach Joe Reilly is leaning so heavily on this group that I doubt that they can sustain a high level of play for the 80 minutes that will be necessary to take home the crown this weekend. Furthermore, their games are too similar. Davis brings a bit more quickness and driving ability to the floor than the others, Rafferty is a lefty and a really smooth shooter with range and Mackey likes to shoot off the dribble, but when it comes down to it they are all point guards who want to score the basketball. The unconventional lineup can cause problems against some opponents, but when it doesn’t work out you can have stat lines like the combined 11-36 (30.6 percent) from the field that Mackey, Davis and Rafferty put together on Saturday.
Joe missed the impact of Tufts’ big man Hunter Sabety ’17. (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)
This was a big week in fantasy with injuries playing a big role. Joe did not have two of his top players, Chris Hudnut ’16 and Hunter Sabety ’17 healthy. Given the lack of public information about injuries, we have entered into a gentleman’s agreement to have bench players automatically fill in for players who get injured. Therefore our rosters ended up looking this.
Lord of the ‘Cac (Adam)
Lin and Tonic (Joe)
POS.
Player
Player
Guard
G. Safford
J. Starks
Guard
J. Brown
L. Hausman
Guard
J. McCarthy
L. Westman
Forward
J. Swords
E. Ogundeko
Forward
A. Santos
D. George
Forward
Mar. Delpeche
Z. Pavlin
Forward
D. Sinnickson
H. Merryman
Bench
R. Epps
H. Sabety
Bench
J. Brown
J. Lin
Bench
S. Ajayi
C. Hudnut
This was the biggest week for both of us. I thought my 189 points was a lot, but buoyed by the huge weekend from Lucas Hausman ’16, Joe scored a whopping 218 points. Not surprisingly, he also beat me in FT% and FG% with a lot of different people pitching in. But then, beyond that my team had a much better all-around week. The reemergence of Johnny McCarthy ’18 was huge for me. His 7 blocks helped me squeak out a victory in that category. Graham Safford ’15 was my MVP this week, and Hausman was Joe’s best player.
Category
Lord of the ‘CAC (Adam)
Lin and Tonic (Joe)
Points
189
218
Assists
36
23
Rebounds
98
83
Steals
25
15
Blocks
19
18
FT%
67.2% (43/64)
77.6% (66/85)
FG%
40.5% (62/153)
47.6% (70/147)
3PT Made
15
10
Yesterday Joe said he has an “obsession with efficiency.” No place is that shown in real life more than Fantasy. For those who don’t remember (I know that’s everyone), Joe took Luke Westman ’16 with the third overall pick. I scoffed at this considering how few points Westman had scored to that point, and took Graham Safford ’15 with my next pick. That sequence in many ways is the defining moment of our fantasy foray. At this point, it looks more and more possible that we end the season tied at 4-4. My chances of winning outright are extremely low, and Joe losing Sabety and Hudnut will make it hard for him to come back in rebounds. Our differing philosophies might end in an anti-climactic impasse.
Trinity now holds a game and a half lead over everybody in the NESCAC with a 6-1 conference record, but it took a late second half comeback against Bowdoin to first force overtime and then escape with the win. In what was a very entertaining back and forth game, the Polar Bears took a six-point lead on a John Swords ’15 layup with 5:40 left, but the Bantams battled back and took a one point lead on a huge Rick Naylor ’16 three. Bryan Hurley ’15 knotted things up at 62 all with a free throw and neither team was able to score again in regulation. In overtime Naylor scored four more points and Trinity hung on to win by one. Naylor finished with 16 points and Ed Ogundeko ’15 had a double-double with 13 points and 12 rebounds.
The Bantams won a little more comfortably over Colby on Saturday to cement their status as the NESCAC frontrunners. That position is very tenuous because Tufts holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Trinity. Also, the Bantams have to go on the road for their final three conference games against Wesleyan, Conn College and Middlebury. Their offense is at best inconsistent, and every team they play feels like they have a good chance at winning so long as they make shots. That Trinity has also lost a couple of questionable midweek games also throws a damper on their NESCAC success. The Bantams have fought their way to the top, but the sifting sands of the conference landscape might not make that the place to be.
Stock Up
Point Guard Graham Safford ’15 (Bates)
Safford carried the Bobcats to a huge 2-0 weekend in Lewiston. Against Wesleyan on Friday night he scored 31 points, 22 of which came in the second half. He scored 18 of Bates’ final 31 points. Then Saturday he showed his ability to impact the game in so many ways despite having an awful day shooting the ball from the field going 1-11. He scored all 10 of his points in the second half, most of them foul shots down the stretch. Since he couldn’t hit shots, Safford made sure to get his teammates involved handing out 10 assists. He also upped the intensity on the other end finishing the game with a crazy seven steals. Conn College gave Bates a good battle, but Safford made sure that his team did not experience a let down game. A 2-0 weekend puts Bates right back into the thick of things near the top. They get to play Williams at home on Friday night, a big advantage for them. So long as Safford is healthy, his ability will keep Bates in every game they play.
Amherst Perimeter Players
Cheating a little here because Connor Green ’16 is really a forward, but he does a lot of work around the perimeter as well. One of the Amherst student announcers compared Green to Carmelo Anthony, a very apt comparison because both can get outrageously hot from deep but also like to be physical and get to the rim. Obviously Green got hot this weekend, especially against Bowdoin where he buried the Polar Bears with a flurry of three pointers. Reid Berman ’17 did not score a point all weekend, but he also handed out 21 assists, and Johnny McCarthy ’18 returned to his early season form averaging 15.5 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 4.0 APG, 2.0 SPG and 3.5 BPG. Coming into the season Amherst appeared to have a bevy of frontcourt players and a lot of question marks in the backcourt. Now, including Jeff Racy ’17 and Michael Riopel ’18, there is a plethora of players making an impact on the perimeter. In order to make space for everyone, Coach Dave Hixon is going back to a guard-heavy lineup and using Green as a small ball power forward for long stretches.
Small Forward Joe Edmonds ’16 (Wesleyan)
The Oklahoma City native had by far his best weekend of the season, and he came up huge on Saturday to get Wesleyan a much needed win at Tufts. He led Wesleyan with 18 points, four assists and four rebounds. Edmonds has been somewhat of a catalyst for Wesleyan. In the three Cardinal conference wins Edmonds is averaging 14.0 points, and in their losses he is averaging 8.0 points. He did a good job of attacking the basket against Tufts with Hunter Sabety ’17 out with an injury. Do not sleep on the Cardinals who came very close to completing a 2-0 weekend against Bates and Tufts. Many probably wrote them off when Middlebury tore them apart a few weeks ago, but this is a resilient team. At the very least, they are a team capable of giving everybody in the NESCAC a big scare.
Stock Down
Middlebury Depth
After a lot of tinkering, Coach Jeff Brown was finally able to employ the starting five that most fans envisioned on Sunday in Jake Brown ’17, Matt St. Amour’17, Hunter Merryman ’15, Dylan Sinnickson ’15 and Matt Daley ’16. Daley is finally delivering on his mountains of promise, and if (a huge if for him) he can stay healthy then he gives Midd a true big man in the middle. His emergence comes as many of the Panthers bench players slide into the background. Connor Huff ’16 will reinvent himself as an energy guy off the bench, but he might work better as a player with stars around him. Dean Brierley ’15 and Bryan Jones ’17 will see time at guard, but neither of them really scares teams. Not a single freshmen even saw the floor against Hamilton, though Nick Tarantino ’18 and Jack Daly ’18 have shown flashes of strong play this season. The Panthers starting five scored all but five of Middlebury’s points against Hamilton. Middlebury loves to push the pace and they are best when they rotate guys in and out, but they seem overly reliant on their stars right now.
Colby
Really a tough weekend for Colby because they had to face their two toughest road opponents without their star Chris Hudnut ’16, who was out with an injury. The Mules rely on Hudnut so much on the boards and in the paint that it likely would have taken a near perfect performance from every one of their remaining players to pull out a victory against either Amherst or Trinity. The severity of the injury to Hudnut is still unclear, but the Mules will not be able to survive a prolonged absence from him. Two weeks ago the Mules were 3-1 and seemed to be coming together. Now at 3-4 it is possible they miss the NESCAC tournament all together. This season, one injury, one bad weekend can ruin your season. On the flip side, the Mules could rebound quickly and get back on track.
Small Forward Stephen Haladyna ’16 (Tufts)
Lost in the hubbub around the Jumbos strong start in conference was the continued struggles of Haladyna. The second leading scorer on Tufts last season, the junior lost his starting spot in the lineup halfway through the season and has done little to justify getting it back. Then he had a nice game Friday against Conn College going 3-3 from three, his best shooting performance of the year. That made his subsequent goose egg on 0-5 shooting Saturday all the more frustrating. Haladyna is in a year long shooting slump making an abysmal 24.1 percent from three. Never a great playmaker for others, he is also now not getting a lot of rebounds which means he is struggling to contribute in any fashion. Other players have stepped up and helped Tufts manage his decline, but it looks close to a lost season for Haladyna.
You’re killing me, guys. A 9-0 start, an 0-2 start to conference play including a blowout loss to Tufts, an absolute dismantling of Wesleyan, just scraping by with a win against the conference’s only remaining winless team, and now another blowout loss to the Ephs. I was starting to think that the Tufts and Conn. games could be chalked up to having to play on Sunday and maybe that’s where Middlebury’s struggles were based, but there was no excuse for this one. Nearly a full week of rest and preparation and the Panthers just fell flat. And the game was never really close. Middlebury had the lead for all of one possession of the ball game before Williams stole it away for good with a Dan Aronowitz ’17 trey with 19:11 to go in the first half.
Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15 poured in 20 points on 5-11 (3-8 3PT) shooting to lead all scorers. (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)
Obviously, I’m closer to the Middlebury team than any other in the NESCAC, and so I still have hope for this season because I understand why they’ve had some of their struggles. Matt St. Amour ’17 returned tonight but likely wasn’t at full strength and showed some rust from the three-point line, going 0-4. Captain Dean Brierley ’15, who has filled in in the starting lineup the last three games, is a capable shooter himself but St. Amour has a more dynamic offensive game when he’s good and healthy. The performance from Matt Daley ’16 was certainly promising. It’s been a month now since the athletic big man has returned to action but Coach Jeff Brown has been working him into the rotation slowly. For what reason, we don’t know. Perhaps to teach Daley a lesson or simply because Nick Tarantino ’18 had been playing consistently. However, a near double-double from Daley in just 21 minutes (a season high) might inspire Coach Brown to let Daley loose a bit more going forward. It’s worth the chance because obviously this team is not in a place right now where it can compete for the NESCAC title, and Daley could be an X-factor down the stretch. Last but not least, it was just an uncharacteristic night for Middlebury as they shot poorly from everywhere on the floor and they allowed the Ephs to shoot over 50 percent from the floor. On the season Middlebury opponents were shooting under 37 percent from the field before this game. Maybe the sloppy performance has something to do with the fact that J-term just ended for the Middlebury team. Perhaps they felt that little bit of fatigue mixed with relief that always comes with passing in a final paper or taking that final exam. But they will need to overcome distractions much more serious than that if they are going to win the NESCAC this season.
The PG Battle in Amherst is Over
Reid Berman ’17 is the real deal. I talked in the Friday Preview about how Berman was a pass-first point guard who could really grab hold of the starting job with a good performance on Friday night. Berman did pretty much exactly what he was supposed to do, dishing out 13 assists. And as advertised, he didn’t look to shoot much, only taking five shots (missing them all). Of course, Berman is not a polished product. Zero percent from the floor isn’t a good stat, no matter how many assists you tally, and he also turned the ball over six times, but he seems to be a good fit on a team with three starters who can knock down a lot of trey balls.
All Hail the Bantams
For at least one day, Trinity is the undisputed king of the ‘CAC. I doubted the Bantams going into this one, thinking that John Swords ’15 would force Trinity to take a lot of threes and I didn’t think a lot of those threes would go in. Well, I was half right. Trinity attempted 26 threes, just three short of a season high, but they were able to sink 11 of them (42.3 percent). Rick Naylor ’16 was the hero for the Bantams, scoring seven straight points, including a three at the end of regulation and four points to open the overtime period, to help clinch the victory.
Rick Naylor ’16 scored 13 of his 16 points after halftime to help the Bantams beat the Polar Bears. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)
Defense was the story of the night. Shot clock violations played into the narrative on both sides. Trinity forced one near the end of regulation and Bowdoin caused their own with five seconds left in overtime, but was unable to get a clean shot for the win and Bryan Hurley’s ’15 desperation three was no good as the buzzer sounded.
Ed Ogundeko ’17 continues to be a beast on the boards for Trinity. The 6’6″ forward snagged another 12 rebounds and still leads the NESCAC in rebounds per conference game despite coming off of the bench and only playing 20.5 minutes per conference game.
If there’s a downside to the Bantams thrilling victory, it might be that this game would suggest that Trinity needs an uncharacteristically efficient shooting night in order to beat the NESCAC’s best. But this is just one game, so let’s not jump to conclusions. Instead, let’s let the Bantams enjoy their time atop the heap. If we’ve learned anything in the NESCAC this season it is that no one is safe, so don’t get too comfortable up there.
Saturday/Sunday Preview
Players to Watch
1. Guard Joseph Lin ’15 (Hamilton)
Hamilton has given Middlebury a tough time in these teams’ last two matchups, Middlebury is going to be angry and Lin and Co. got Friday off so they’re going to be fresh. The student body is on vacation in Middlebury so it won’t be a particularly boisterous crowd, and I think that could benefit Lin, who had his worst conference game so far in the Hamilton win over Williams last week. I think Lin bounces back despite Middlebury’s tough defense. This is somewhat of a gut call, but if there’s one reason that I think Lin could have a big game it’s simply that I don’t see anyone else in the Hamilton starting five drawing a favorable matchup. Not that Lin vs. Jake Brown ’17 is an easy assignment for Lin to score on, but I think the Continentals lean heavily on the senior guard in this one and that he rises to the occasion.
2. Center John Swords ’15 (Bowdoin)
Last night Swords was more active and engaged on the offensive end than he has looked in a lot of games recently shooting it 13 times, a season high. Unfortunately he made only six, a terrible night considering his usual shooting percentages. Still, the Polar Bears would be happy to have Swords shoot so often every game. How Swords’ minutes get managed today will be fascinating to watch. He played a season high 41 minutes against Trinity, a very physical team. Bowdoin does not really have another player who can keep David George ’17 off of the offensive boards for Amherst so they are going to need their big guy to play a lot. Whether Swords is physically up for it is a big question. If he is not then the Polar Bears will need to dig deep if they want to avoid an 0-2 weekend.
3. Guard Harry Rafferty ’17 (Wesleyan)
Like Wesleyan as a team, at times Rafferty looks like one of the finer guards in the conference who is especially lethal from downtown. Then he also has games where he struggles to find his rhythm. Yesterday, Rafferty came off the bench, something he has done a couple of other times only to return to the starting lineup the next game. He played well coming off the pine with 15 points, six rebounds and three assists. That was not enough for Wesleyan to overcome a huge night from Graham Safford ’15. Rafferty has become more of a straight scorer this year, so making him the primary scorer off the bench is not actually a crazy idea. He and Tarik Smith ’17 could end up locking horns on both ends of the floor if both of them come off the bench. That two guards so talented are both filling a reserve role makes for an interesting storyline to watch today.
Game of the Day: Bowdoin (13-5, 4-2) at Amherst (13-5, 3-3), 3:00 PM
I get the feeling that this will be the closest of the five games to be played today and tomorrow. After Bowdoin lost the nail-biter with Trinity yesterday this game took on a lot more meaning for the Polar Bears, who could go from potential number one seed to middle of the pack over the course of two days if they lose to the Lord Jeffs. As mentioned above, the Swords-George matchup should be a good one, but the most interesting battles to watch will not be when the ball is in either player’s hands, but rather the fights for rebounds. Both players are defense-first and are top five in both rebound and blocks per game. Offensively, both players are very efficient, so something will have to give in this matchup.
Amherst’s biggest challenge will be stopping explosive guard Lucas Hausman ’16. The kid just keeps getting better and does most of his damage inside the arc or at the free throw line. The Lord Jeffs have had some difficult stopping guard penetration this season and have committed the third-most personal fouls per game in the NESCAC. Those two factors combined could mean a lot of trips to the line for Hausman, a 91.1 percent free throw shooter who went 13-13 from the stripe against Trinity last night. We will see some combination of Johnny McCarthy ’18 and Connor Green ’16 lined up with Hausman. Whether either player can slow down the Bowdoin scoring machine could be the difference in this game.
Lucas Hausman ’16 has been unstoppable as of late. The junior dropped a career-high 30 against Trinity in a losing effort on Friday. (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics/www.CIPhotography.com)
Another interesting matchup occurs at the point guard position, where both teams employ Rajon Rondo-like playmakers. Hurley and Berman are both looking to pass first, the latter almost to a fault, so it should be fun watching them attack one another possession after possession. Hurley obviously gives up some size to Berman, but that shouldn’t be much of a disadvantage in this game seeing as Berman is unlikely to rise and fire, meaning that Hurley could have one of his best defensive games of the season today.
I missed on my prediction yesterday when I stated that Bowdoin would win by 10 over the Bantams, and today I’m going to have to pick against the Polar Bears. Especially given Amherst’s home court advantage, I think the Lord Jeffs win on a couple late free throws by Green. Keep in mind, though, that Amherst lacks a dead eye free throw shooter like Hausman. Green is the best from the stripe and he is shooting under 75 percent. I think he comes up clutch today, but the opportunity is there for Bowdoin to foul early and capitalize on some missed front ends of a one-and-one. Nevertheless, the pick is in: Amherst by five.
The NESCAC schedule means that this is the weekend when teams play their usual travel partner. Because they have played all the same teams in conference thus far, we should have a good idea on how each team matches up with their opponent.
A big theme of the weekend is road favorites trying to avoid losing to home teams. The combined conference records of home teams this weekend is 5-12 while away teams are a combined 13-6. And remember that those records come against the same teams. Colby is the only home team with a winning record at 3-1 and are also the only home team that can be considered a favorite going into tomorrow. Winning on the road is not easy, but most gyms in the NESCAC do not offer a significant advantage as overall teams are 9-11 on the road this season.
Three Players to Watch
1. Power Forward Rashid Epps ’16 (Wesleyan): A tough start for Wesleyan in conference is in part because of Epps not producing. The junior has seen his playing time squeezed somewhat and he even got dropped from the starting lineup against Middebury. Epps has never been the primary scorer for Wesleyan, but the emergence of Joseph Kuo ’17 has pushed him into the third or fourth role offensively. However, the Cardinals are not a particularly dynamic offensive team, and Epps is far and away their most efficient scorer. Some of that efficiency is because he scores a lot on second chance points, but even last year when he was more of a focal point on offense, he shot 55 percent from the field. He is shooting one less shot per game and has averaged only 5.0 shots per game over the past five games. Wesleyan cannot afford to lose at Conn College. Make no mistake, even though the Camels are 0-4 in conference, they are playing decently and will beat somebody soon. They need to avoid taking too many threes and get Epps involved early.
2. Point Guard Reid Berman ’17 (Amherst): Though Berman has still yet to start a game for the Jeffs, more often than not he, rather than Jayde Dawson ’18, ends up being on the court to finish games. Dawson continues to show flashes of excellence, but Coach Dave Hixon does not trust him as a point guard. After two early turnovers, Dawson went to the bench midway through the first half and never returned. Berman is pass-first almost to a fault, but he came up huge down the stretch for Amherst against Williams scoring seven points. I know seven points might not sound like much, but before Wednesday, Berman had scored eight points total since the Christmas break despite playing significant minutes in every game. Seven points is a major breakthrough for him. Berman is not going to shoot from the outside (one made three all season), but he showed he can get into the lane and be a threat to score. That is really all he needs to be since he has proven that he is an excellent passer. We don’t know whether Hixon will put Dawson back in the starting lineup or commit to Berman completely, but at this point it appears Berman is the primary point guard for Amherst.
3. Forward Dan Aronowitz ’17 (Williams): I got to watch Aronowitz in person last Friday when Williams visited Bowdoin, and he was the only reason the halftime score wasn’t 50-10 Bowdoin. And it wasn’t just his 13 points at half that stood out but the different ways he was able to affect the game on both ends. Even though webcasts around the NESCAC are now very good, it is hard to understand how a player really works unless you see them in person, especially if you are sitting courtside. The sophomore is undersized playing a lot of minutes at power forward, but he has held up on the defensive end. He is the second option right now on offense and is shooting 39.7 percent from three for the year. The injury to Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15 could have CRUSHED Williams, but they are treading water right now without him. Because of improvements from Aronowitz and Ryan Kilcullen ’15 amongst others, Williams is becoming that team nobody wants to play.
A matchup of teams 3-1 in conference and the CBB rivalry makes this a wonderful undercard for the weekend. However, both teams’ conference records are inflated a bit by having already played Hamilton and Conn College, objectively the two worst teams in the NESCAC. Bowdoin’s win over Williams was a very good one, but since the Ephs were without Rooke-Ley, it still carries a little asterisk. The winner of this game will need only a couple more wins before they can think about a home NESCAC tournament game while the loser falls back to the pack with the toughest conference opponents still ahead of them.
John Swords ’15 and Chris Hudnut ’16 will clash once again this weekend. (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)
The tough news for Bowdoin is that Keegan Pieri ’15 suffered his second concussion of the season on Wednesday night and is out for the foreseeable future. Concussions are obviously not something to mess around with and we wish Keegan the best of luck dealing with them. On the court, he is a massive loss given he is the second leading scorer and rebounder on the Polar Bears. John Swords ’15 will need to step up and be an offensive threat in the middle, something that he has not been for long stretches this season. Coach Tim Gilbride could fill Pieri’s place in the starting lineup in a couple of different ways including going small with guard Jake Donnelly ’16. Liam Farley ’18 should see an uptick in minutes because of the injury as well.
In the first game between these two teams Colby outplayed Bowdoin in the second half and managed to run away with it at the end. Bowdoin was simply unable to buy a basket from the outside going 2-15 from three. Bryan Hurley ’15 scored only two points in the game, but he is looking much more comfortable of late and has made multiple three pointers in each of his past five games. Bowdoin will have to adjust quickly to playing without Pieri who was the most capable guy on the team at creating his own shot.
For Colby, they know Chris Hudnut ’16 and Luke Westman ’16 will produce so it comes down to their other guys. Ryan Jann ’16 is a smooth shooter who makes one shot a game that you have no idea how he did it. Sam Willson ’16 played one of his worst games of the season the first time around, but he has been fantastic in conference averaging 14.0 PPG. The Mules need to also play Bowdoin to a standstill on the boards in order to keep the Polar Bears from getting easy buckets. These are two teams very familiar with each other so expect a close game.
Disregard the fact that Trinity lost a mid-week game once again to an opponent they should have beat while Amherst pulled out a big win against Williams in overtime. This game is almost a tossup.
The talent on the Amherst roster is undeniable, but for the first time in a long time Dave Hixon is unsure on how all the pieces best fit together. Nine players are averaging more than 10 minutes for Amherst. The last time the roster was so unsettled was the 2009-2010 season when Amherst had 11 players average more than 10 minutes per game (injuries to key players help explain the high number) as the Jeffs struggled to a 14-11 record, including 3-6 in conference. Connor Green ’16 is getting close to putting his stamp on this team as a leader with a 30-point performance Wednesday. The Jeffs need him to become their go-to guy, someone they can rely on to get easy offense. If that happens all the talent behind him can fall into manageable roles: e.g. David George ’17 as shot-blocker and rebounder, Jeff Racy ’17 as sniper from three, and Johnny McCarthy ’18 as a Swiss Army knife.
At this point everyone knows that Trinity is extremely talented defensively and relatively inept offensively. They can thank their defense for their 3-1 start in the NESCAC. Trinity is yet to have a NESCAC opponent score more than 60 points against them in regulation. On the other end, the polite way of putting it is that the Bantams are balanced, but a more realistic outlook is that they simply lack players capable of creating and making their own shots beyond, occasionally, Jaquann Starks ’16. Guys like Alex Conaway ’15, Shay Ajayi ’16, and George Papadeas ’15 are all capable of having good games, but they just are not reliant enough. The Bantams will want to make this game ugly, and there is a good chance they will succeed in doing just that against an Amherst team that tends to play to its competition.
The road was not kind to Bates last weekend as they fell to Trinity and Amherst. Now they return to the comfy confines of Alumni Gym where five of their final seven conference games are at home. In fact, Bates’ only conference road games remaining are at Colby and Bowdoin so the Bobcats will not leave the state of Maine for the rest of the regular season.
Meanwhile Tufts continues to look better and better as we get further into conference play. Their win Thursday over UMass-Boston 80-67 saw them overcome 16 turnovers and four of their five starters scoring five points or less. Of course, it helps when your fifth starter, Hunter Sabety ’17 goes 9-9 shooting for 24 points. Even though Ryan Spadaford ’16 and Thomas Lapham ’18 have started recent games, Vincent Pace ’18 and Tarik Smith ’17 are the guys who do most of the backcourt scoring. The Jumbos are now above .500 for the first time all season. A win at Bates would cement their place at the top of the league with a good chance at going 7-0 before they play Williams in February.
Defensively Bates should match up well with Tufts because the Delpeche brothers can slow down Sabety and Tom Palleschi ’16. The Bobcats have to find a more consistent rhythm on offense, as they are averaging a NESCAC low 56.3 PPG in conference. Graham Safford ’15 has seen his scoring take a dive, and over on the D3Boards there are unsubstantiated rumors that he is playing injured. Safford is still playing heavy minutes and his backups, Jerome Darling ’17 and Justin Zukowski ’18, have played very sparingly. Safford has to be at or near his best for Bates who should be playing in front of a large home crowd tomorrow.
We are predicting (even hoping) that this weekend is the one that officially throws the league into chaos. There is a very good chance that after this weekend not a single team will be undefeated in conference. Bates, Trinity, Colby and Tufts are the four teams still unbeaten. Bates plays Trinity tonight while the Jumbos head to Hartford for a matchup with Trinity on Saturday. Bates and Tufts both play Amherst in their other game this weekend. Meanwhile, Colby plays Hamilton and Williams at home. While the Mules looked good last weekend, we can’t call them an elite team just yet and Williams presents a big challenge for them. In almost every game this weekend there is a good case to be made for either team winning.
Three Players to Watch
1. Forward Tom Palleschi ’17 (Tufts): An injury to fellow big man Hunter Sabety ’17 for the Middlebury game contributed to Palleschi scoring 18 points on 8-11 shooting as the Jumbos sprung a big upset on Middlebury. Well, the term “upset” is contingent on the idea that Tufts early season struggles are unfixable. Sabety’s status for this weekend is still unclear, and Tufts has to go on the road and play Amherst and Trinity. If Sabety is out then Palleschi will once again be the focal point of the offense. After an uneven start, he is now averaging over 10.0 points per game. He is tough to guard because he has a very good mid range shot but can also go into the post and get buckets from there.
2. Guard Jake Brown ’17 (Middlebury): Last week Bates coach Jon Furbush made a bold tactical decision to have one of the Delpeche brothers guard Brown. Brown was goaded to shoot from the outside and had no way of getting into the lane and distributing. He finished the game with nine points, but he went 1-7 from deep. I would not expect Wesleyan to put Joseph Kuo ’17 on Brown, but whoever does guard him will give Brown all the space he wants to shoot. Brown knows that he does not have to be a scorer either. On Tuesday he went 0-5 from the field, but still had a good game because he passed out nine assists. Expect him to pass up outside shots and just try to get into the lane time and time again.
3. Guard Mike Boornazian ’16 (Bates): Another huge weekend for Bates as they go on the road to play Amherst and Trinity. Graham Safford ’15 is the leader for the Bobcats, but Boornazian is the player who makes them special if he plays well. He averages 14.2 PPG, but that comes on only 38.9 percent shooting. His importance is derived in large part from his ability to guard positions 2-4. Boornazian slowed down Dylan Sinnickson ’15 when he guarded him last week, and he will have a similar task against either Johnny McCarthy ’18 or newly minted 1,000 point scorer Connor Green ’16. Boornazian needs two stellar performances if Bates is going to pull out two tough road victories.
No game is a must win this early in the conference season, and Middlebury knows that they don’t need to press, but there is still a sense of urgency for the Panthers. Falling to 0-3 is far from a death sentence, but the way Middlebury played at Tufts set off a lot of warning bells. How much of last weekend was a result of a stomach virus that ravaged the team is as of now unclear.
On the other side Wesleyan just got run out of the gym in the second half against Amherst. The game was much closer than the final score of 69-46 made it appear, but the Cardinals never really threatened the Jeffs. Amherst did a really good job of closing down on Jack Mackey ’16 and Harry Rafferty ’17 and without that outside shooting, the Cardinals offense was simply unexplosive. Wesleyan can live with a meh offense so long as their defense holds its own, but first Colby and then Amherst were able to find holes in the Cardinal armor. Sinnickson is a matchup problem for a lot of teams, and Wesleyan will likely have Rashid Epps ’16 on him. Epps is stronger than Sinnickson, but Sinnickson is also a dead-eye shooter. Against Bates, most of the threes that he missed rimmed in and out. He and Hunter Merryman ’15 will rely on Brown to get them open looks from deep.
Trinity just saw Merchant Marine, of all teams, snap their 10-game winning streak. The offensive struggles that Trinity always has to worry about reappeared. Because of an off game from Jaquann Starks ’17, they could not create anything and shot poorly from the outside. The loss takes a good deal of the shine away from the Bantams and could possibly haunt them in a couple of months if they are looking to get an at-large bid.
How much the referees let these two teams play could have a major impact because of the possibility for foul trouble. Both teams love to play physical, especially on the boards. Bates is more than happy to slow the game down just like Trinity so this could be a game that ends up somewhere in the 50s.
3. Saturday 3:00 PM: Williams (10-4, 1-1) at Colby (9-5, 2-0)
You should watch this game because Williams has decided that every game they play in this season is going to be awesome. Counting their December clash against Wesleyan, the three games the Ephs have had against NESCAC teams have combined for three overtimes, and then of course the one game that did not go into overtime ended on this crazy Ryan Kilcullen ’15 buzzerbeater.
These two teams are at the very bottom of the NESCAC in defense and near the top in scoring so that should make the game a wide-open, fun one to watch. Though Kilcullen and the Ephs held their own against two physical frontcourts in Trinity and Amherst, Chris Hudnut ’16 is a much more skilled offensive player than anyone on those two teams. Colby came back against Wesleyan because Hudnut came alive in the second half. With Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15 still out, Dan Wohl ’15 will once again have to make a ton of plays on offense. Wohl is now the front-runner for NESCAC Player of the Year and after averaging 30.0 PPG last weekend. For Colby to keep pace with the potent Williams offense, they need their supporting players like Sam Willson ’16 and Ryan Jann ’16 to make outside shots.
