Bowdoin (11-10, 2-6) at Wesleyan (17-5, 4-4), February 10, 7:00 PM, Middletown, Connecticut
If you are a Wesleyan Cardinal, it is imperative that you understand that this game is a trap game. While Bowdoin is just over .500 and only have two wins in league play, nothing is guaranteed in terms of playoffs just yet. While it seems like Wesleyan is all set to make the playoffs, they are not. Bowdoin can sweep this weekend and find their way into the NESCAC tournament, and if a Polar Bear sweep coincides with a Cardinal goose egg, Wesleyan will be mighty disappointed come Sunday. However, I don’t think that is going to happen, and here is why:
Wesleyan just has too many defensive weapons to counteract the offensive threats on Bowdoin. I believe that Wes is one of the toughest matchups of the year for Jack Simonds. The combo of Jordan Bonner ‘19 and Kevin O’Brien ‘19 gives Simonds two different looks defensively which should stifle his ability to find open space. Meanwhile, Joseph Kuo ‘17 has all the tools he needs to shut down Hugh O’Neil down low, which puts a lot of responsibility on the remaining four Bowdoin guards of Tim Ahn ‘19, David Reynolds ‘20, Liam Farley ‘19 and Jack Bors ‘19. It will certainly help Bowdoin if Salim Green ‘19 is still out of the Wesleyan lineup tonight, but Harry Rafferty ‘17 is a very good perimeter defender in his own right, so this game is going to be no easy task for the Polar Bears.
The biggest advantage for the Cardinals comes in the matchup at the forward spot. Nathan Krill ‘18 has turned into a dynamic offensive player this year. He crashes the boards hard, he shoots threes, he gets in the heads of opposing players…he’s all over the place. Krill has a clear advantage against Neil Fuller ‘17, and if he can take over like he has shown that he can at times, then I don’t see the Polar Bears keeping up with Wesleyan. Who knows though, Bowdoin are playing for their playoff lives after all, and the ‘backs against the wall’ mentality has prompted teams to victory before…
Bowdoin is 2-6 in league play.
Their Win-Loss ratio in league play is 1:3.
Combine 1:3 and you get 13.
Flip 13 and you get 31.
31, 3-1.
The Warriors blew a 3-1 lead in the finals.
Writer’s Pick: Wesleyan
Colby (10-12, 1-7) at Connecticut College (12-9, 2-6), February 10, 7:00 PM, New London, Connecticut
Colby is already out of playoff contention, so this game comes strictly as a potential spoiler game for the Mules. That means that Conn NEEDS to take this game seriously from the tip and put away Colby ASAP. While they are not going to be in the NESCAC tournament, I’m sure that the fellas from Waterville would still love to add to their win total before they close the book on the 2016-2017 season. How is Conn going to do this?
Well, first of all, they are going to do the opposite of what they did against Williams and actually get a hand up on three-point shooters. In conference play, Williams has hit the most threes, but Colby is only four makes behind them in that category. It’s important to note that Colby doesn’t exactly shoot the most accurately behind the arc (31.8% in conference play), but regardless, they are going to pull the trigger if they are given space.
Secondly, Tyler Rowe ‘19 is going to take his shots, and if Colby wants to knock the Camels out of playoff contention, forcing the sophomore point guard into low percentage shots is a good idea. Rowe shoots a lot, but it is often his efficiency that determines the success of the Conn offense, so whoever matches up with Rowe needs to make him either give up the ball or force him to make difficult shots. The rest of the Conn offense is threatening, but sporadic. Lee Messier ‘18, Zuri Pavlin ‘17, David Labossiere ‘19 and a few others have all gone off here and there, but it’s hard to predict who is going to step up in any one game for the Camels. That’s why stopping Rowe should be the focus of the Colby defense. Unfortunately, I don’t think they have it in them to do so. Furthermore, Conn was embarrassed last Sunday, and they have been waiting all week for this opportunity to redeem themselves.
Writer’s Pick: Conn College
Trinity (14-8, 5-3) at Hamilton (15-6, 4-4), February 10, 7:00 PM, Clinton, New York
Trinity is playing better basketball of late, while Hamilton’s ship has been sinking, and I think that each team is going to keep trending in their respective direction tonight. While Hamilton scores 87.6 PPG (league leading), Trinity allows just 64.7 PPG (league leading), and I’m thinking that in this case Trinity’s impenetrable defense has a much better matchup than Hamilton’s fast paced offense. The Continentals actually have a solid counter to the Ed Ogundeko ‘17 attack of Trinity, but the guards of Hamilton don’t do a great job of getting high percentage shots at times. This is where Trinity’s in-your-face defense is set up for success. Against Trinity, the game plan needs to be to 1.) protect the ball 2.) take smart shots, and 3.) get to the foul line. While the Continentals do get the foul line the second most in NESCAC play, they also turn the ball over the second most in conference, which should give the Bantams a good chance to grab a W on the road in their fight for home-court advantage in the quarterfinals. I don’t think Hamilton’s offense is quite as full of firepower as their numbers imply.
Writer’s Pick: Trinity
Williams (16-6, 4-4) at Tufts (18-5, 7-2), February 10, 7:00 PM, Medford, Massachusetts
Tufts has the chance to snag the top seed with an Amherst loss this weekend, but they need to do their part and win tonight for that to help them. Without Palleschi, and potentially without Pat Racy ‘20 who sat out on Tuesday night against Pine Manor, the Jumbos could be down to just a single big man in Drew Madsen ‘17. However, Williams is one of the better teams to be down to a single big man against since they do not possess a dominant post player themselves. Tufts is the best rebounding team in league play, and that’s because everyone chips in, especially Vinny Pace ‘18 and KJ Garrett ‘18, who each average over 6 boards per league contest. As long as the Tufts guards do their part rebounding the basketball, Tufts won’t miss Racy on the glass. So what does Williams need to do to win? Hit their threes. I don’t know whether it is that Tufts has very forgiving rims or that everyone just loves playing in the bowl-shaped Cousens Gymnasium, but for one reason or another every game at Tufts seems to feature a dominant three-point shooting performance. Cole Teal ‘18 has gotta get going tonight if the Ephs want to win, and Coach App is going to need a strong performance out of Dan Aronowitz ‘17 as well. This could be a barn burner, but Tufts is 9-1 at home this year so I’m going with the Jumbos.
Writer’s Pick: Tufts