Tag: Lucas Golon

Welcome to the Thunderdome: Middlebury at Trinity, Your Week 6 Game of the Week

Middlebury looks to keep the wheels turning this weekend against Trinity, which will be no easy task (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics).
Middlebury looks to keep the wheels turning this weekend against Trinity, which will be no easy task (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics).

Middlebury (5-0) at Trinity (5-0), 12:30 PM, Hartford, CT

On Saturday October 29th the Panthers will challenge the Bantams in their house. Who is scarier? Since it is Halloweekend after all, if we look strictly at the mascots, a Panther is much more intimidating than a little chicken, but it is the guys wearing the costumes this weekend that people should fear. These #1 and #2 squads on our power rankings face off in week six, and no matter what you think their respective order should be on that list, they are clearly alone at the top.  Midd has fared incredibly well so far this year, topping Amherst and handling their business against the lower tier NESCAC teams, but Trinity hasn’t scored less than 36 points this year. So the real question is, if each team showed up to your front door to trick-or-treat, who’s ‘Boo!’ would frighten you more?

 Last Time They Met and What’s On the Line: October 31st, 2015, Middlebury, VT. Trinity defeats Middlebury 26-14

Last year, Middlebury held on to a 14-13 halftime lead, but couldn’t muster any offense in the second half and ultimately let up two 4th quarter TD’s to lose.  However, the last one was on a drive with time running out to tie the game when QB Matt Milano ’16 threw a pick-6. It was a great matchup and is sure to be similar this year, although each team has improved greatly from where they were at last year. It’s a little bit too early to tell if this is going to be the quasi NESCAC championship game (another reason why NESCAC football should have playoffs), but this is going to be a top 3 game of the season. While Sid discussed earlier this week how it’s still possible for Wesleyan to win the crown of the conference, he just casually assumed Tufts would roll over Midd, which is bold to say the least. Barring an unthinkable, unpredictable, and unlikely ending to the year, either Trinity or Middlebury will win the NESCAC and this is going to be a huge game in deciding that future.

 Trinity X-Factor: DB Spencer Donahue ‘17

Spencer Donahue '17 (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)
Spencer Donahue ’17 (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)

This isn’t a bold prediction by any means, as Donahue leads the Bantams with two INT’s, 20 tackles, one forced fumble, two fumbles recovered, and one block. He’s good. He’s great. But can he stop WR Conrado Banky ’19? While he might not cover Banky, he will definitely need to play a big part in containing the speedy wide-out who leads the Panthers with 614 receiving yards and eight TDs. Jared Lebowitz ‘18 is a big time passing QB who has thrown 20 TDs this year, but five of them were to Ryan Rizzo ’17. What does this have to do with Donahue? Well, since Ryan Rizzo is now out for the year with a fractured wrist, Banky becomes the center of the receiving core, and if Donahue can neutralize him, with Trinity’s ruthless offensive attack, Middlebury will have a tough time keeping up.

Middlebury X-Factor: The Linebacker Core’s Big 2

Addison Pierce '17 (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)
Addison Pierce ’17 (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)
John Jackson '18 (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)
John Jackson ’18 (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Middlebury averages 35.8 points a game and Trinity averages 37.4 ppg. These teams are going to score this weekend, and that’s why each team’s X-Factor defensive. Addison Pierce ’17 and John Jackson ’18 are the center of the defensive unit and each have a monsterous 40 tackles on the season, and their ability to stop Max Chipouras ’19 and Lucas Golon ’19, averaging 175 collective yards per game on the ground, is going to be a key to limiting the Bantam’s point to under 36 for the first time this year. The senior captain, Pierce, also adds three sacks and one forced fumble and combined with Jackson’s five sacks and two forced fumbles, the Trinity running backs are going to have their hands full. If Sonny Puzzo ’18 is forced to throw because of the rush defense, only allowing 2 yards per carry last week and -0.4 yards per carry against Amherst on week four, then the Panthers would have the comparative advantage on offense.

 Everything Else

These two offensive juggernauts lead the league in almost every offensive category and are going to hit each other head-on on Saturday. Middlebury offense gains 429.2 yards per game compared to the league leader Trinity at 482 yards per game, while each squad’s defense ranks fourth and third, respectively, in yards allowed per game.

Trinity definitely had an easier game week one against Bates than Middlebury did last weekend, as the Panthers went down 9-0 before rumbling back to score 28 unanswered points. However, each team has played well against the other Maine schools, and beaten all of the teams they needed to, as expected. The only two really interesting games each has played were Midd vs. Amherst, and Trinity vs. Tufts. Each team clearly came out on top, but Trinity did so much more convincingly than Middlebury. Up until last weekend, Middlebury’s year to date strength of schedule appeared to be higher, but Amherst’s brutal loss to Wesleyan drastically lowered their stock, and therefore the quality of the week three win for Midd. Tufts on the other hand is about just as good as expected and has leapfrogged Amherst in the power rankings, showing that perhaps Trinity’s victory over the Jumbos was much more impressive than the Panthers’ victory over the Purple & White.

Defense hasn’t been Middlebury’s strongest area, as they faltered against Williams during week four, but an underrated key player is Nate Leedy, who had a big interception last weekend against Bates to thwart the early Bobcat threat.  His ferocity should continue this weekend. Sonny Puzzo ‘18 should be scared of this senior captain as he will lurk in the secondary, ready to pounce and add on to his season total of 15 tackles and go for his second straight week with a pick. As I mentioned above, Rizzo’s injury is a big hit to the Panther offense, and while they were able to beat Bates without him, the Bobcats’ defense is not exactly the top in the league. Trinity’s secondary is no joke, drawing my comparison to Seattle’s Legion of Boom earlier in the year. Because of this deficit and Trinity’s balanced offense, on paper it appears that they are the favorite. Puzzo has drastically improved his TD:INT ratio from last season, and still only has one pick on the year. Lebowitz is having a better year, but if RB Diego Meritus can’t take some of the load off of the receivers’ backs, I’m uncertain as to whether the air game will be as sustainable for Middlebury this weekend. Having said that, while the current forecast in Hartford predicts sun and 60 degree temperatures, weather changes rapidly because, after all, this is New England. The Panthers are also not going to go down easily as Wesleyan is creeping behind these top two teams in the standings and none wants to play second fiddle to the undefeated team. Middlebury wants this game, Trinity wants this game, and there is only one King Sized Kit-Kat bar left at the bottom of the candy bin. Who will take it?

Clash of the Titans: Week 4 Game of the Week

(Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)
(Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)

Tufts (3-0) at Trinity (3-0), 1:30 PM, Hartford, CT

It’s Week 4 and the Bantams are finally facing a foe of comparable talent. After three blowout wins by 31, 25, and 31 in Weeks 1, 2, and 3 respectively, Trinity will host Tufts in what will without a doubt be the most highly anticipated game this weekend. Both squads come into this game undefeated, and after Saturday, the NESCAC will have at most 2 teams standing at 4-0 (assuming Middlebury handles their business in Williamstown). Tufts and Trinity are actually pretty similar teams. Both rely heavily on their running game to move the ball, and both rely on their defenses to keep them in games. Additionally, each team has very reliable special teams units. At face value, the two sides are pretty evenly matched. Let’s look at what happened last time these two met.

 

Last Time They Met: October 17th, 2015, Somerville, MA. Trinity defeats Tufts 34-37(OT)

When these two met last year in Week 4, the situation was eerily similar. Both sides were 3-0, but Amherst had just beat Middlebury as opposed to Middlebury beating Amherst. The difference in 2015 was that Tufts was coming off a .500 season instead of a .750 season, so the Bantams were more heavily favored. Well, the Jumbos did everything right until they got the ball with about 7 minutes remaining. With a 27-24 lead, Tufts was only able to run 2:46 off the clock before being forced to punt the ball back to Trinity, and their inability to get a single first down proved costly. Trinity used every bit of the time that Tufts gave them, and was able to drive down the field to nail a field goal with just 6 seconds left, sending the game to overtime. Then, in overtime, Sonny Puzzo ‘18 threw a quick strike to Bryan Vieira ‘18 for a touchdown on Trinity’s first play. Down 7, the Jumbos needed a TD and a PAT to second it to double-OT, but the big-game experience of the Bantams proved to be crucial, as the Trinity defense buckled down and stopped Tufts without allowing a yard. This game was an instant classic, and I’m sure the Jumbos have been waiting for this rematch for the entire year since then.

 

Tufts X-Factor: Linebacker Greg Holt ‘20

(Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)
(Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)

Really, Rory? A freshman is going to be the X-Factor against debatably the best team in the league? Yes, absolutely. Trinity averages an incredible 272.7 YPG on the ground, and between the duo of tailbacks Max Chipouras ‘19 and Lucas Golon ‘19, there is really no break for opposing defenses. Enter stage left: Greg Holt. The freshman linebacker is an absolute ball hawk, and he comes into this game ranking third in tackles with an average of 12.3 per game. Though Holt had a down week against Bowdoin, in his first college football game he racked up a game-high 14 tackles, followed by 20 tackles in Week 2 against Bates! The kid knows what to do once the ball is snapped, and with Steve DiCienzo ‘18 (averaging 10.3 TKL/G of his own) flanking him in the Tufts linebacking corps, Holt can be super aggressive when Trinity runs the football. If Holt has a big game for the Jumbos, Tufts will be in a good spot as the game nears the end.

 

Trinity X-Factor: Quarterback Sonny Puzzo ‘18

Sonny Puzzo '18 (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics).
(Courtesy of Trinity Athletics).

Puzzo is second in the league in passing behind Middlebury’s Jared Lebowitz ‘18, but to me, Puzzo’s stats are actually much more impressive. On a team that rushes for 272.5 YPG, Puzzo still throws for 201.0 YPG, demonstrating just how good this guy is. The Bantams only throw on 36.6% of their plays, and Puzzo still amasses 201 YPG! The most important thing for the Trinity offense is going to be mixing between the pass and the run for equal effectiveness. If the Bantams can keep the Jumbo defense on their heels, Coach Civetti’s players will have a tough(t) time stopping Puzzo and company. Luckily for Trinity, they have a handful of receiving weapons for Puzzo to look to including Darrien Myers ‘17, who has been spectacular so far in 2016. Puzzo still hasn’t thrown an interception this season, and if he can continue to play efficient, mistake-free football, the Bantams will find their rhythm early on.

 

Everything Else

Like I noted above, Trinity is the top offense in the league, and that is largely due to Max Chipouras’ 126.0 YPG on the ground so far. Though his scoring pace has declined compared to last year (he has just 2 touchdowns so far), the reigning ROY is an integral part of the Trinity offense, and he will be a crucial component of Trinity’s game plan this weekend. The Bantams are gaining 487.3 YPG through three games, but their opponents are just 1-8 and have allowed an average of 27.5 PPG, so I don’t know how good a barometer their offensive output is. Against a solid Tufts defense, things may be a little more difficult for Coach Devanney’s offense.

As a whole, Trinity is allowing just 227.0YPG through the first three weeks; on the other side of the field, the Tufts defense is allowing 285.0 YPG. This is a game where I expect defense will rule, and I’d honestly be surprised if there are more than 10 total points on the board at the end of the first quarter. Against a pretty even opponent, Tufts allowed just 14 points, all of which were scored in the second quarter. For the other three quarters, the Jumbos shut out a Cardinals offense that has since scored 34 and 37 points in Weeks 2 and 3. Meanwhile, the Jumbo offense is facing a defensive unit that has allowed just 8.7 PPG, but again, the teams Trinity has played have not produced much offensively, so it’s hard to judge the Trinity defense in this regard. It would be easy to point to the 21 points that Tufts allowed to Bowdoin as a sign of weakness, but the second defensive unit played most of the second half for Tufts in that game, so I would not be so critical of Coach Civetti’s defense.

I think the biggest edge Trinity is going to have is their ability to stop Tufts’ offense on third down. I mentioned this in the Power Rankings yesterday, but Tufts is just converting just 28% of the time on 3rd down this year. The two other 3-0 teams are converting on 3rd down as follows: Middlebury – 41%, Trinity – 44%. That is a HUGE difference, and I think Week 4 is when it will finally come back to bite the Jumbos. Chance Brady ‘17 is going to have to have a huge game in order to alleviate the pressure on whichever quarterback Coach Civetti throws out there. If I were to guess, Ryan McDonald ‘19 will start. His ability to run (he ranks 3rd in rushing in the league) has been a great weapon offensively for Tufts, but McDonald also went 9-9 for 92 yards and a TD through the air last week, so it seems that he will at least get a shot to prove himself in Tufts’ biggest game of the year to this point.

As I mentioned above, however, Puzzo’s ability to throw effectively will be of enormous significance in this one. The Jumbos may be able to slow down Chipouras, but they can’t stop him completely if Trinity’s aerial attack presents just as much of a threat. As you may have noticed in my POY Race article, Trinity was the only team with two players in the Top 5 on offense; those two players were Puzzo and Chipouras. So far, both have done exactly as expected, and I don’t think there is a defense in this league that can effectively neutralize both threats. Each player compliments the other, and I think as the game wears on, both of the guys will start to figure out the Tufts defense. Though I don’t think they’ll ever fully pull away, the Trinity defense will hold things down until the offense finds a way to put some points on the board and win this game.