Tufts (3-0) at Trinity (3-0), 1:30 PM, Hartford, CT
It’s Week 4 and the Bantams are finally facing a foe of comparable talent. After three blowout wins by 31, 25, and 31 in Weeks 1, 2, and 3 respectively, Trinity will host Tufts in what will without a doubt be the most highly anticipated game this weekend. Both squads come into this game undefeated, and after Saturday, the NESCAC will have at most 2 teams standing at 4-0 (assuming Middlebury handles their business in Williamstown). Tufts and Trinity are actually pretty similar teams. Both rely heavily on their running game to move the ball, and both rely on their defenses to keep them in games. Additionally, each team has very reliable special teams units. At face value, the two sides are pretty evenly matched. Let’s look at what happened last time these two met.
Last Time They Met: October 17th, 2015, Somerville, MA. Trinity defeats Tufts 34-37(OT)
When these two met last year in Week 4, the situation was eerily similar. Both sides were 3-0, but Amherst had just beat Middlebury as opposed to Middlebury beating Amherst. The difference in 2015 was that Tufts was coming off a .500 season instead of a .750 season, so the Bantams were more heavily favored. Well, the Jumbos did everything right until they got the ball with about 7 minutes remaining. With a 27-24 lead, Tufts was only able to run 2:46 off the clock before being forced to punt the ball back to Trinity, and their inability to get a single first down proved costly. Trinity used every bit of the time that Tufts gave them, and was able to drive down the field to nail a field goal with just 6 seconds left, sending the game to overtime. Then, in overtime, Sonny Puzzo ‘18 threw a quick strike to Bryan Vieira ‘18 for a touchdown on Trinity’s first play. Down 7, the Jumbos needed a TD and a PAT to second it to double-OT, but the big-game experience of the Bantams proved to be crucial, as the Trinity defense buckled down and stopped Tufts without allowing a yard. This game was an instant classic, and I’m sure the Jumbos have been waiting for this rematch for the entire year since then.
Tufts X-Factor: Linebacker Greg Holt ‘20
Really, Rory? A freshman is going to be the X-Factor against debatably the best team in the league? Yes, absolutely. Trinity averages an incredible 272.7 YPG on the ground, and between the duo of tailbacks Max Chipouras ‘19 and Lucas Golon ‘19, there is really no break for opposing defenses. Enter stage left: Greg Holt. The freshman linebacker is an absolute ball hawk, and he comes into this game ranking third in tackles with an average of 12.3 per game. Though Holt had a down week against Bowdoin, in his first college football game he racked up a game-high 14 tackles, followed by 20 tackles in Week 2 against Bates! The kid knows what to do once the ball is snapped, and with Steve DiCienzo ‘18 (averaging 10.3 TKL/G of his own) flanking him in the Tufts linebacking corps, Holt can be super aggressive when Trinity runs the football. If Holt has a big game for the Jumbos, Tufts will be in a good spot as the game nears the end.
Trinity X-Factor: Quarterback Sonny Puzzo ‘18
Puzzo is second in the league in passing behind Middlebury’s Jared Lebowitz ‘18, but to me, Puzzo’s stats are actually much more impressive. On a team that rushes for 272.5 YPG, Puzzo still throws for 201.0 YPG, demonstrating just how good this guy is. The Bantams only throw on 36.6% of their plays, and Puzzo still amasses 201 YPG! The most important thing for the Trinity offense is going to be mixing between the pass and the run for equal effectiveness. If the Bantams can keep the Jumbo defense on their heels, Coach Civetti’s players will have a tough(t) time stopping Puzzo and company. Luckily for Trinity, they have a handful of receiving weapons for Puzzo to look to including Darrien Myers ‘17, who has been spectacular so far in 2016. Puzzo still hasn’t thrown an interception this season, and if he can continue to play efficient, mistake-free football, the Bantams will find their rhythm early on.
Everything Else
Like I noted above, Trinity is the top offense in the league, and that is largely due to Max Chipouras’ 126.0 YPG on the ground so far. Though his scoring pace has declined compared to last year (he has just 2 touchdowns so far), the reigning ROY is an integral part of the Trinity offense, and he will be a crucial component of Trinity’s game plan this weekend. The Bantams are gaining 487.3 YPG through three games, but their opponents are just 1-8 and have allowed an average of 27.5 PPG, so I don’t know how good a barometer their offensive output is. Against a solid Tufts defense, things may be a little more difficult for Coach Devanney’s offense.
As a whole, Trinity is allowing just 227.0YPG through the first three weeks; on the other side of the field, the Tufts defense is allowing 285.0 YPG. This is a game where I expect defense will rule, and I’d honestly be surprised if there are more than 10 total points on the board at the end of the first quarter. Against a pretty even opponent, Tufts allowed just 14 points, all of which were scored in the second quarter. For the other three quarters, the Jumbos shut out a Cardinals offense that has since scored 34 and 37 points in Weeks 2 and 3. Meanwhile, the Jumbo offense is facing a defensive unit that has allowed just 8.7 PPG, but again, the teams Trinity has played have not produced much offensively, so it’s hard to judge the Trinity defense in this regard. It would be easy to point to the 21 points that Tufts allowed to Bowdoin as a sign of weakness, but the second defensive unit played most of the second half for Tufts in that game, so I would not be so critical of Coach Civetti’s defense.
I think the biggest edge Trinity is going to have is their ability to stop Tufts’ offense on third down. I mentioned this in the Power Rankings yesterday, but Tufts is just converting just 28% of the time on 3rd down this year. The two other 3-0 teams are converting on 3rd down as follows: Middlebury – 41%, Trinity – 44%. That is a HUGE difference, and I think Week 4 is when it will finally come back to bite the Jumbos. Chance Brady ‘17 is going to have to have a huge game in order to alleviate the pressure on whichever quarterback Coach Civetti throws out there. If I were to guess, Ryan McDonald ‘19 will start. His ability to run (he ranks 3rd in rushing in the league) has been a great weapon offensively for Tufts, but McDonald also went 9-9 for 92 yards and a TD through the air last week, so it seems that he will at least get a shot to prove himself in Tufts’ biggest game of the year to this point.
As I mentioned above, however, Puzzo’s ability to throw effectively will be of enormous significance in this one. The Jumbos may be able to slow down Chipouras, but they can’t stop him completely if Trinity’s aerial attack presents just as much of a threat. As you may have noticed in my POY Race article, Trinity was the only team with two players in the Top 5 on offense; those two players were Puzzo and Chipouras. So far, both have done exactly as expected, and I don’t think there is a defense in this league that can effectively neutralize both threats. Each player compliments the other, and I think as the game wears on, both of the guys will start to figure out the Tufts defense. Though I don’t think they’ll ever fully pull away, the Trinity defense will hold things down until the offense finds a way to put some points on the board and win this game.