Hear ye, hear ye, Week 3 NESCAC action is in order! What’s almost as good as watching NESCAC football on Saturdays? National polls suggest that NBN’s Weekend Previews come in a close second place. Quite a weekend we’ve got in store: Williams and Bates will battle it out to see who can avoid an 0-3 start, Tufts tries to prove that their close game against the Bobcats was a fluke, Trinity will attempt to put up 38 points for the third week in a row, and Colby will try to upset Wesleyan in a battle between two 1-1 squads. Oh and ho-hum, Amherst and Middlebury will battle for the top spot in the conference. Pete and I tag-teamed this weekend’s preview, so if you are looking to skip through Pete’s overly poetic analysis, I wrote the Trinity-Hamilton and Tufts-Bowdoin previews. Check it out below:
Amherst @ Middlebury, 1:30 PM, Middlebury, VT
For a more expansive preview of this one, check out Colby Morris’ excellent piece that went up yesterday. This game is on the short list for the most important game of the year, with Middlebury and Amherst both coming in undefeated after impressive blowouts in each of their respective games. It’s not too much of a stretch to say that this game may well decide the league championship, although Trinity, Tufts and Wesleyan certainly have something to say in that regard.
The Panthers are led by quarterback Jared Lebowitz ‘18, who has 11 total touchdowns (10 passing, 1 rushing) and just one interception thus far this season. However, Amherst’s staunch defense will pose a very tough test to the first year starter. In contrast to the Panthers, Amherst comes in with quarterback uncertainty, with starter Alex Berluti ‘17 suffering a knee injury last week, forcing third-stringer Nick Morales ‘18 into action. Berluti may very well play, but either way, Amherst’s strong defense and powerful running game led by Jack Hickey ‘19 should mitigate any issues under center. This game may well come down to which offense can break through first, or it could be a shootout that comes down to one crucial stop. In any event, it’s shaping up to be a classic.
PS: Look how unbiased that was, Rory! I did it!
PPS: Go Panthers
Rory Ziomek (5-0): Amherst – 24, Middlebury – 21
Pete Lindholm (5-0): Amherst – 28, Middlebury – 31
Liam O’Neil (5-0): Amherst – 24, Middlebury – 17
Colin Tiernan (5-0): Amherst – 24, Middlebury – 20
Colby Morris (4-1): Amherst – 21, Middlebury – 28 (OT)
Sid Warrenbrand (5-0): Amherst – 31, Middlebury – 14
Nick DiBenedetto (5-0): Amherst – 30, Middlebury – 31
Williams @ Bates, 1:00 PM, Lewiston, ME
Look, every game can’t be Amherst vs. Middlebury. This is maybe the least sexy match-up of the weekend, with both teams struggling mightily so far. However, the game offers a golden opportunity for either of these teams to pick up a win, so it’s still an intriguing matchup to check the score of while you’re waiting in line for the bathroom at the Middlebury-Amherst game.
Bates put up a very good fight against Tufts last week, losing 12-7 and throwing a shutout for the entire second half. They showed a very strong defense, limiting explosive Jumbos running back Chance Brady ‘17 to 140 yards and no touchdowns. Unfortunately, they had some pretty severe offensive struggles of their own, totaling only 220 total yards of offense. Williams is coming off a shellacking at home against Trinity, in which they gave up 517 total yards of offense and only gained 201. This should be a tight one, with Bates getting the edge because they’re at home and my younger sister goes to college there.
RZ: Williams – 13, Bates – 20
PL: Williams – 10, Bates – 13
LO: Williams – 7, Bates – 16
CT: Williams – 10, Bates – 17
CM: Williams – 7, Bates – 14
SW: Williams – 17, Bates 21
ND: Williams – 14, Bates – 10
Wesleyan @ Colby, 1:00 PM, Waterville, ME
If you ask me, this game has serious upset potential. Colby is a long trip for Wesleyan, and the Mules already have a road win under their belt in Williamstown. Wesleyan, on the other hand, lost a tough early season game to Tufts in which they blew a double digit lead in the second half. Throwing history and reputation aside, both these teams are 1-1 right now, and numbers never lie (except when they do).
At their best, Wesleyan uses an explosive running attack led by electric freshman Dario Highsmith to march down the field. They punctuate those runs with safe, cagey passes from quarterback Mark Piccirillo ‘19. However, as Tufts showed in Week One, the Wesleyan offense can be stalled by the same kind of stout defense that Colby showed at Williams. It would be surprising if Colby pulled this one off, but the possibility is there.
RZ: Wesleyan – 24, Colby – 17
PL: Wesleyan – 20, Colby – 10
LO: Wesleyan – 31, Colby – 7
CT: Wesleyan – 30, Colby – 10
CM: Wesleyan – 24, Colby – 10
SW: Wesleyan – 35, Colby – 14
ND: Wesleyan – 35, Colby – 7
Trinity @ Hamilton, 1:00 PM, Clinton, NY
It took me three clicks on the NESCAC website to find the most glaring disparity between the Bantams and the Continentals: their offensive outputs. While Trinity has absolutely annihilated teams so far, putting up 38 points in each of their games thus far, the Continentals are averaging a mere 3 PPG. I don’t think anybody expected Hamilton to make it through their opening stretch unscathed, but frankly, they have been obliterated by Amherst and Wesleyan in consecutive games. Liam mentioned this in his Top 10 Games of 2016 article a few weeks ago, but the scheduling gods certainly didn’t spare Hamilton this year, and Week 3 looks to be another opportunity for a powerhouse to dismember the Continentals’ defense.
Hamilton is tied with Williams for the second-worst clip of rushing YPG allowed in the league, giving up 221.5 YPG on the ground to their opponents. Meanwhile, Trinity just runs, runs, and runs more, and is averaging 305 YPG on the ground through the first two weeks! Max Chipouras ‘19 was one of my early picks for player of the year for a reason; he has shown flashes of Boobie Miles with his 154.5 rush YPG rate that has placed him atop the conference. I’d be surprised if Trinity doesn’t run away with this one.
RZ: Trinity – 38, Hamilton – 10
PL: Trinity – 45, Hamilton – 6
LO: Trinity – 36, Hamilton – 10
CT: Trinity – 40, Hamilton – 0
CM: Trinity – 34, Hamilton 7
SW: Trinity – 42, Hamilton – 9
ND: Trinity – 40, Hamilton – 6
Tufts @ Bowdoin, 2:00 PM, Brunswick, ME
Speaking of dominant running backs, Smash Williams, aka Chance Brady, is heading up to Bowdoin this weekend to try to dethrone Chipouras as the NESCAC’s leading rusher. Brady trails Chipouras, but just barely, accumulating 145.5 YPG on the ground so far. The issue for the Jumbos at this point is that they can’t decide who they want to throw the ball. Is it going to be JD McCoy or Matt Saracen? Alex Snyder ‘17 and Ryan McDonald ‘19 have both seen plenty of snaps thus far, but neither has excelled, and Coach Civetti has had to lean on Brady to shoulder the load offensively. If Tufts wants to compete for the title this year, it’s crucial that they demonstrate the ability to attack through the air effectively. The Jumbos only rank ahead of Bates in passing yards…the Bobcats run the option…see what I’m getting at?
“So, Rory, when are you going to start talking about the game?” Here’s how my tangent becomes relevant: if Bowdoin can stop the run, they have a pretty good chance to win this game. Because of how reliant Tufts is on their ground game, the Polar Bears may be tempted to stack the box and force the Jumbos to throw. This strategy worked decently well for Bates, right? I mean, there was a minor tsunami in Somerville last Saturday, but still, the Bobcats played a “bend don’t break” style of defense à la Matt Patricia and the New England Patriots, and they found themselves right in it until the end of the game. However, aside from stopping the run, Bowdoin needs to score, which is arguably their biggest challenge of the weekend. Coming off of games against Middlebury and Amherst, it’s not surprising that Bowdoin has struggled offensively to begin the 2016 season, but if their defense can keep them in the game, Bowdoin may only need a couple good drives to find themselves victorious. That being said, I don’t think anything will slow down Brady tomorrow (insert Pete’s comment about me being biased here).
RZ: Tufts – 28, Bowdoin – 13
PL: Tufts – 17, Bowdoin 14
LO: Tufts – 34, Bowdoin – 6
CT: Tufts – 24, Bowdoin – 13
CM: Tufts – 21, Bowdoin – 6
SW: Tufts – 28, Bowdoin – 6
ND: Tufts – 20, Bowdoin – 10