Stock Report – Nothing But NESCAC

All Roads Go Through Medford: Stock Report 2/6

Stock Up

Tufts

This one is relatively straightforward, but the Jumbos are for real: anyone who was not a believer in this squad before Saturday’s monumental home victory against the Mules, you are surely one now. Tufts was not even remotely phased by Colby’s plethora of talented guards, sticking with their plan of centering their offense around big man Luke Rogers ‘21. The big fella got his own with 19 points and 12 boards, and both Eric Savage ‘20 (22 points, 6 rebounds) and Tyler Aronson ‘22 (14 points) provided big buckets down the stretch, allowing Tufts to pull away. What was most impressive above all, however, was the stifling defense displayed by the Jumbos against one of the country’s most prolific offenses. Tufts held Colby to just 41% shooting from the field, smothering (in particular) Sam Jefferson ‘20 (three points on 1-5 shooting). With an immaculate 6-0 record in conference, Tufts is now (in theory) two full games ahead of Colby for first place because of their head-to-head victory and should absolutely be placed higher than their #21 national ranking. The slate ahead won’t be particularly easy with road games remaining against Trinity, Middlebury and Williams, but the Jumbos fear no one and have made it clear to the rest of the NESCAC that they (not Colby) are the best team in the league.

Donald Jorden Jr. ‘21 and Trinity

Don’t look now, but Jorden is quietly cementing himself as one of the best big men in the NESCAC. Over the past three games, the 6’6’’ junior is averaging 16.0 PPG and a jaw-dropping 15.6 REB/G. His seven offensive rebounds in Trinity’s upset victory against Middlebury displays how relentless Jorden is on the glass, and it is truly safe to say that he is the most instrumental player to both the Bantams’ recent success. The weekend sweep of Middlebury and Williams vaulted Trin into the third spot in the standings, and with a home game against Tufts still to come, a higher ascension within the conference standings is not totally out of the question.

League Parity

It’s not even March and the NESCAC is already experiencing some early madness vibes. Aside from Tufts (6-0), Colby (6-1), and Conn (0-6), the rest of the NESCAC is separated by two games or fewer. While it may come to hurt some teams seeking an at large bid, it nonetheless makes for an exciting home stretch in which no game is really an absolute gimme for any team. Even the infamous Conn College, despite their winless streak in conference play reaching 27 games, has started to show signs of life with a double-overtime heartbreaker to in-state rival Trinity coupled with a hard-fought loss to Middlebury (whom they were beating midway through the second half). Bowdoin’s upset over Bates has allowed them back into the playoff picture, patiently waiting behind the cluster of Williams, Bates, Hamilton and Wesleyan, all sitting with four losses. Next week will surely see some movement in the standings, but I’ll be the first to admit that most of these matches can go either way.

Stock Down

Bates’ Playoff Chances

The Bobcats might very well be the most volatile team in the ‘CAC this season – they can compete with the very best (as we saw last weekend giving the Jumbos all they could handle), and yet struggle with some of the traditional bottom-feeders. This type of behavior was on full display on Friday and Saturday; Bates went toe-to-toe with Colby for roughly 25 minutes before the defense collapsed, and then proceeded to sleepwalk the following day against Bowdoin. Having already defeated the Polar Bears comfortably by 14 on the road earlier this season, I assumed that, despite the natural hangover that comes with losing to your rival, the ‘Cats would rebound quickly against their other in-state rival in a must-win game. Instead, the Bobcats turned in their worst offensive performance of the season, shooting an abysmal 31.9% from the field. Sitting at 2-4 in conference play and currently tied for seventh (they hold the tiebreaker over Hamilton and Wesleyan due to their head-to-head victories), Bates is still firmly in the playoff picture – however, all four of their remaining conference games are on the road, and besides Conn (who is still not nearly as much of a pushover as we previously thought), all of those games are against very quality opponents in Trinity, Williams, and Middlebury. It’s safe to say the Bobcats now face an absolute must-win against the Camels, and will probably need another victory from that other group of three in order to safely secure a spot in the conference tournament.

Middlebury

The Panthers are in trouble not so much for the conference tournament as they are for their overall seeding come national tourney time. Checking in as the current five seed in the NESCAC isn’t the best look for a top fifteen team nationally, who is expected to run the table of sorts and dominate inferior opponents. It was a relatively rough weekend for Midd as they dropped one to Trinity and severely struggled with Conn until midway through the second half. The remaining slate isn’t the most favorable for the Panthers, having to hit the road next weekend to face a desperate Cardinals team before hosting both the undefeated Jumbos and a talented, yet inconsistent Bobcats squad the following weekend. The offense has experienced a slight downward tick in production over those past two games, but there’s plenty of time for a team as uber-talented as Middlebury to pick up the pace and head into the conference tournament on a high note.

It’s Not Cold Up North: Stock Report 1/21

Stock Report 1/21

Stock up

Bates’ turnaround from last year

The Bobcats have gotten off to a very fine start in 2020 and sit at 3^rd place in the NESCAC right now with a record of 2-1. What makes their 2-1 record more impressive is the fact that they’ve already played Wesleyan, Amherst, and Hamilton who have been some of the best teams in the league over the last several years. This is in stark contrast to last season when Bates finished 7-18 overall and just 3-7 in NESCAC play. One of the biggest catalysts behind the hot start in league play has been freshman Omar Sarr ’23. In conference play, Sarr is leading the NESCAC in both rebounds and blocks per game and he has really made his presence felt in the paint thus far. Fellow rookie Stephon Baxter ’23 has also been a huge addition to this year’s squad. The defensive spark that he brings off the bench is huge for Bates and allows Coach Furbush to mess around a bit with some of his defensive matchups. Baxter is also lightning quick and has displayed an impressive ability to create his own shot and make tough finishes. The addition of these two guys combined with elevated play from their loaded senior backcourt has made the Bobcats do a complete 180 this season and they now find themselves looking down at most of the league.

Sam Jefferson’s POY case

In non-conference play, Jefferson got off to one of the most incredible statistical starts to a season we’ve ever seen in the NESCAC. The question at that point was whether he could continue this elite level of play in their most crucial games against their most talented opponents. His numbers in their opening NESCAC weekend against Conn College and Trinity weren’t jaw dropping, but they also didn’t need him to perform as much because they handled those games with relative ease. This past weekend, however, Jefferson stepped up when it really mattered. On the road at Middlebury and Williams, Jefferson put up 55 points on 19-27 shooting, including 9-16 from 3-point land. These are star-caliber numbers and he delivered them against two of the very best teams in the league on the road in a pivotal weekend for the Mules. I’ve been hesitant to say too much about Jefferson until we got a chance to see him go up against stronger teams, but he this weekend he came through and then some. He has helped make Colby the team to beat right now, even beyond the NESCAC…

Colby’s national relevance

The Mules are now up to #5 in the nation with a 15-0 start to the season including 4-0 in NESCAC play. It feels like every week we’re waiting on them to have an off shooting night and have their lack of size haunt them, but every week they prove us wrong. Middlebury isn’t necessarily the biggest team in the league (although they aren’t small), but Williams is one of the biggest and Colby handled them just the same. The Mules have 4 players averaging double figures in scoring and they lead the NESCAC in field goal percentage (2^nd in 3-point percentage), points, assists, steals, and blocks per game. Right now this is the best team with the best player in the best conference in America and it’s their spot to lose. Colby still has Bates, Bowdoin, Tufts, Hamilton, Amherst, and Wesleyan left on their NESCAC schedule so there’s a lot of basketball left to play, but at the moment it looks like the road to the NESCAC Championship runs through Waterville.

Stock down

Kena Gilmour star power

The reigning NESCAC Player of the Year had a rough weekend with the rest of the Continental squad, dropping games at Tufts and at Bates. Gilmour had 26 points on Friday against a nationally ranked Tufts team, but he shot just 9-22 so not exactly the most efficient night. On Saturday at Bates he was relatively nonexistent, except for a flurry of 3-pointers early in the second half. He really didn’t look very involved in the offense and the team simply couldn’t do it without him. He had a good weekend the weekend before and helped lead a furious comeback to steal a win against Williams, so hopefully this weekend was just a bump in the road. Hamilton has yet to prove that they can win when Gilmour doesn’t perform, so he’s going to have to be playing at a very high level to keep the Continentals in contention. This is a very different team than last year in Clinton.

Amherst’s consistency

This is somewhat a testament to the fact that the Mammoths are the class of the NESCAC year in and year out, but they haven’t really seemed to hit their stride yet in 2020. They started off very strong taking down previously undefeated Middlebury, then followed that up by losing to Williams at home the very next day. This past weekend they put together a nice win at Bates and turned around on Saturday to get crushed by Tufts. Eric Sellew ’20 suffered a shoulder injury in the first half of the game against Bates and didn’t play against Tufts so we’ll have to keep an eye on how long he’s out given that he has probably been the Mammoths’ most efficient player this year. Grant Robinson ’21 hasn’t been as dominant as he was last year and Fru Che ’21 has had some relatively quiet scoring nights as well. All that said, Amherst still isn’t in a terrible spot right now. They’re one of the 4 teams tied for 4^th place at 2-2 in league play and they’re past the hardest part of the schedule so far. Their last 6 games are against Hamilton, Wesleyan, Bowdoin, Colby, Trinity, and Conn College so they have a very real chance of closing out the year 4-2 or 5-1 which would likely earn them a home game in the first round of the NESCAC playoffs. You can never count out the Purple and White.

Only Pride on the Line: Stock Report 11/6

Stock up

Bates Bobcats

In the interest of full disclosure I just want to say that I’m a senior at Bates and I’ve been waiting to write this “stock up” for a very long time. It’s no secret that this has been a frustrating past two years – losing 16 games in a row after a coaching change definitely makes you scratch your head a little. There is also quite a bit of flukiness that comes with a losing streak that long – they were a blocked PAT away from heading to overtime with Middlebury last season, they nearly orchestrated a 19-point comeback against Tufts in Week 4 this year, a phantom holding call nullified a would-be game winning touchdown against Colby in Week 7, and the injury bug bit at the wrong time over and over again. Well, I’m very happy to say that the streak is finally over and Bobcat fans can sleep easy for the first time in 728 days.

In all honesty, Bowdoin came out on Saturday and looked like they were playing against the Max Chipouras-era Trinity Bantams. Bates absolutely steamrolled the Polar Bears, outgaining them in total offense 523-296 and shutting down Nate Richam ’20 who has really been the only reliable threat in Brunswick. Brendan Costa ’21 played another very nice game, hitting WR Jackson Hayes ’22 for two deep touchdown passes in the first half and connecting with WR Sean Bryant ’22 for a long score in the second half. Fortunately Costa only had to attempt 17 passes because freshman RB Tyler Bridge ’23 had himself a career day, rushing for 188 yards and a touchdown on 28 carries. The Bobcat defense had by far their best game of the last two years, led by freshman Tony Hooks ’23 who looks to be a potential future All-NESCAC linebacker. Hopefully this is the spark that the Bobcats needed to start turning things around. It may be the end of the year, but getting your first win in a long time can start to change some attitudes. Bates will try their luck again this Saturday when they make the long drive to Hamilton.

Wesleyan’s ability to finish games

Last week I harped on Amherst’s late struggles this year, so it only feels appropriate this week to give this one to the Cardinals. We were very critical of Wesleyan early in the year when they started their schedule with the 4 (or maybe 5) worst teams in the league and then were trounced by Middlebury. They hadn’t proven much and I stand by our caution when assessing where they stood relative to the top teams. However, things are very different now. They just rattled off two overtime victories to win the Little Three Championship and have legitimately solidified themselves as the second best team in the league at this point. The Amherst game was a little fluky with both kickers hitting the upright in the first overtime, but the Cardinals have done it time and time again this year so I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt. Aside from these past two games, they also scored a touchdown with 6 seconds left to beat Tufts and they didn’t score the game winning touchdown against Bowdoin until there were less than 4 minutes left to play. Coach DiCenzo knows what he’s doing and this team knows how to win. They’ll head to Hartford this weekend to try and take down the Bantams for the first time since 2014.

Hamilton special teams

This is a unit we absolutely have not talked about enough this year. The Continentals easily have the best all around special teams in the league. Kick returner Sam Robinson ’20 is the most explosive return man in the NESCAC and he can flip the field position on you in a hurry. Their usage of Kenny Gray ’20 as a hybrid quarterback/punter has really paid off: Hamilton’s punt team has downed 20 kicks inside the 20-yard line this year and 7 of those kicks were inside the 5. Sam Thoreen ’22 is the only kicker in the league with more than 1 field goal attempt who is yet to miss and he’s 20-22 on extra points as well. These are the types of things that make the difference in games. Coach Murray has done an excellent job with the team this year and that is in large part due to his emphasis on special teams. If they can close out the season with a victory over Bates then they’ll be able to clinch their first winning season in a very long time.

Stock down

Trinity, Amherst, or Williams Winning the Championship

Since the year 2000 (when the NESCAC began recognizing a league champion for football) there have been 19 football seasons played. Trinity, Amherst, or Williams has won the championship outright in 16 of these 19 seasons, Amherst shared it with two other schools 2 of the years, and in 2007 Middlebury won the NESCAC Championship. That means this will be just the second time since most of the league’s freshmen and sophomores were born that one of these three schools won’t win the NESCAC title. The interesting thing is that each of these schools feels differently about this season based on the more recent past. For Amherst and Trinity (particularly Trinity) this year is a bit of a disappointment. These two have been consistently competing for the championship every year for as long as I can remember, but Williams is coming from a different place. Just 3 years ago they finished 0-8, then followed with a 6-3 and 5-4 over the next two years. If they can snag a win in their final game over the Mammoths then this will be their highest win total since they won the league in 2010. The final weekend will still bring a slate of good games, but it doesn’t feature the same crucial matchups between the teams that we are used to seeing at the top. Speaking of which…

Final weekend excitement

Unfortunately for us as fans, the final weekend of the year will not factor into deciding the league championship. Middlebury is 8-0 and Wesleyan is the only 7-1 team, but the Panthers defeated the Cardinals handily in Week 6 so they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. For reasons unbeknownst to me, the NESCAC decided to do away with the tiebreaker rule this season, so technically if the two teams finish tied they will be considered “co-champions.” It seems silly not to have a tiebreaker system when the league literally just moved to a 9-game schedule so that everyone now plays everyone. It’s even weirder that they waited until the 3^rd year of the new schedule to remove the tiebreaker rule. Last year Trinity finished tied with Amherst at 8-1, but the Bantams were awarded the league championship because they held the head-to-head tiebreaker. I’m not sure what transpired that caused them to change this, but it doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense. Fortunately NbN does recognize the head-to-head tiebreaker, so we would like to congratulate the Panthers on their well-deserved NESCAC championship.

Ultimately what this does is take away most of the excitement of the final weekend. The Amherst-Williams game is always fun, but it won’t help decide a Little Three or NESCAC Championship. Wesleyan-Trinity will be intriguing too, but it just doesn’t have the same implications that it has had in the past few years. The fact that the conference gives us so much week in and week out means that we don’t know what to do with ourselves when there is suddenly less on the line. That being said, I don’t plan on doing anything else this Saturday afternoon besides watching as many NESCAC football games at once as I can.

Close to the End: Stock Report 10/29

Stock up

Hamilton’s legitimacy

Only 5 years ago the Continentals were coming off their second straight 0-8 season. Coach Murray had just been hired and he began to turn things around. In 2015 they went 2-6 and followed that with 3 consecutive 3-win seasons, leading up until this year. Now they’re sitting at 4-3 with 2 games left to play having just rattled off back-to-back wins over Amherst and Tufts. Not exactly where we expected to see Hamilton through 7 weeks. QB Kenny Gray ’20 isn’t putting up jaw-dropping numbers, but he has done an excellent job minimizing turnovers this season. David Kagan ’20 is having himself a fine year out of the backfield, averaging 4.9 yards per carry and leading the team with 7 rushing touchdowns. Defense has often been the issue in the past and they haven’t been great this year, but they’ve done just enough to give the offense a chance to win the game. Their last two games are against Middlebury and Bates so at the very least it looks like this will be the first winning season for the Continentals in a long time. Perhaps their momentum will be enough to play the spoiler at Midd this weekend…

Wesleyan WR Matthew Simco ’22

Simco played a little as a freshman, but he has really broken onto the scene as a sophomore in 2019. He started to get consistent touches early in the year and it appears that his connection with classmate Ashton Scott ’22 is getting stronger by the second. In their two biggest wins of the season over Amherst and Tufts, Simco caught 13 passes for 277 yards and 3 touchdowns, providing a much-needed spark for the offense at times. He’s now the league’s 5^th leading receiver yardage wise and he’s tied for 2^nd in the conference in touchdown receptions. I’d call that a pretty good All-NESCAC case at this point in the year. The Cardinals still have to play likely the two top defenses in the league in Williams and Trinity, so we’ll have to keep an eye on Simco’s progress when he matches up with the league’s best.

Williams’ game planning

This is really just meant to be praising the Williams coaching staff. Coach Raymond has truly done an excellent job putting this program back on track. It feels like every week the Ephs are the most prepared with schemes and the more disciplined team. Raymond is trying to turn himself into the NESCAC version of Bill Belichick* – tailoring the game plan every week to isolate and attack their opponents’ weaknesses as opposed to identifying his team’s strength and focusing on that. They’ve had a game this year where Maimaron has thrown for 290 yards on 38 pass attempts and they’ve also had a game where Maimaron has only completed 4 passes for 90 yards. Both times they won. Although they might not get the league crown this season, it’s starting to feel like a Williams dynasty is brewing. Coach Raymond appears to be earning the title of league’s best coach and if he can continue to recruit like he has then it’s hard to envision the Ephs slowing down any time soon.

*Sorry Wesleyan fans, I know this one hurts a little bit.

Stock down

Amherst’s ability to finish games

You had to see this one coming. The Mammoths have now lost 3 games this year and it might not be fair to say that they should have won all 3 but they certainly should have won 1 or 2. Of their 3 losses, 2 came in double overtime and in the other they blew an 11-point lead with 8 minutes left. That’s not what you want to see. The defense is certainly at fault too, but one of the biggest reasons behind Amherst’s late struggles has been the sloppy play of QB Ollie Eberth ’20. In both the Middlebury and Wesleyan games, Eberth threw costly interceptions in overtime that led to defeats for the Mammoths. In the Hamilton game the offense didn’t score a single point in the final 26 minutes and they watched their lead slip away. There are obviously a lot of factors that go into losing close games and often times they can be results of a fluke. When it happens 3 times in one year you have to start to wonder what kinds of decisions the coaches are making down the stretch. They’ll give it another shot this weekend when they host Trinity.

Tufts

It really has been a strange year for the Jumbos. They opened the year on one of their biggest victories in recent program memory over Trinity, then proceeded to get smacked by Williams, lost to Amherst, struggled against Bates, lost to Wesleyan in a tight game, took Bowdoin to town, then got waxed by Hamilton this past weekend. They’ve been a tricky team to get a read on, but losing to the Continentals is a bad sign. Tufts has recently found themselves in the middle of the league – ahead of the Maine schools and Hamilton and then typically snagging a win against one or two other teams as well. This year it seemed like that would be the case again when they opened with a win against the Bantams, but now that they have just two games left against Colby and Middlebury there’s a very real chance that the Jumbos finish below .500 in 2019. At the same time this streaky team could easily end the season on a high note, picking up the pieces of a relatively broken year.

That’s All She Wrote: Stock Report 10/23

Stock Up

Middlebury winning the NESCAC Championship

Well, that about does it for the NESCAC Championship race after the Panthers pummeled the Cardinals last weekend by a tune of 45-21. Will Jernigan ‘21 surprised just about everyone with his success through the air, completing 18 of his 25 passing attempts for a career-high 359 yards and four scores. The defense harassed Ashton Scott ‘22 all afternoon and did not allow him to generate anything on the ground (12 rushes for -16 yards). The win pushed Middlebury’s record to a perfect 6-0, and closed the magic number needed to secure the NESCAC Championship to just two games. Middlebury would have to trip up against both Hamilton and Tufts (sorry Bowdoin, I’m already penciling that contest as a win for the Panthers) in order to allow Williams and Wesleyan back into the picture.

Hamilton and Kicker Sam Thoreen ‘22

For all the negativity surrounding NESCAC kickers for their lack of accuracy in recent weeks, major props to Hamilton’s Sam Thoreen. The sophomore nailed not one, but two field goals of 40+ yards. With his team trailing by eleven with roughly four minutes remaining, Thoreen sunk a 44 yarder, the longest kick converted by a NESCAC kicker all year long. More importantly, the kick made it a one possession game. After a wild series of events that allowed the Continentals the opportunity to win the game (more details to come below in the report), Thoreen kept his composure and banged home a 40 yarder en route to Hamilton’s biggest win of the season. He’s quietly been the most accurate kicker in the NESCAC (the only one who has not missed a single field goal) and is second in terms of total points. The Continentals’ gutsy come-from-behind win against Amherst was something sort of like Illinois’ upset of Wisconsin; a traditional power (on the road) failing to close the game against a bottom-tier league opponent. Both games also ended on a game-winning field goal…coincidence? I think not.

Stock Down

Wesleyan and the Potential for Chaos

Like most people that follow NESCAC football, I would have loved to see Wesleyan knock off Middlebury. Even at 6-0, I still believe the Panthers are not the best team in the league and have been extremely fortuitous in some of their victories. In the overall picture, however, a win from the Cardinals would have blown the league wide open. I hate to say it, but Saturday’s performance showed everyone that the Cardinals were undefeated because of their weak schedule leading up to the showdown with the Panthers.

Hypothetically, let’s say Wesleyan was still undefeated after defeating Middlebury. For the Cardinals, they would most likely have had to win out in order to ensure a NESCAC Championship. But the more likely scenario stemming from an undefeated Wesleyan team would be that they suffer a loss (or two) to Williams, Trinity and/or Amherst; this would open the door for multiple teams to grapple for the top spot. Instead, the Cardinals are currently tied with the Ephs at one loss to the Panthers apiece, and both teams have to pray the Panthers trip up twice. For Amherst, their dream was crushed upon losing to Hamilton, and Trinity would need Middlebury to lose all three of their remaining games in order to have the smallest chance. Unfortunately it looks like the league championship is wrapped up.

Amherst

The likelihood of the Amherst winning the NESCAC Championship was slim after Middlebury’s victory, but the loss to Hamilton ended those hopes completely. The loss itself isn’t as strong of an indictment on this team as one would assume based on their respective records, but it was the manner in which Amherst failed to convert a single opportunity to close the game out. After holding Hamilton to a field goal that saw their lead get cut to eight with 3:59 remaining, Ollie Eberth ‘20 and the offense failed to accumulate a single first down and the Mammoths were forced to punt. The special teams unit failed to corral Continentals’ returner Sam Robinson ‘20, giving the home team great field position inside the Mammoths’ 25 yard line with 2:43 remaining. Twice the Mammoths forced a third down scenario during that drive, and twice the Continentals converted. After David Kagan’s three yard scamper, the offense stayed on the field in order to tie the game on a two point attempt; in the midst of a broken play, Kenny Gray ‘20 found Christian Donahoe ‘20 in the end zone, knotting the game at 28 apiece. One would think that a veteran quarterback would be able to lead his team down the field against what was (and still is) a below-average defensive unit. Instead, Eberth and the offense did not pass the sticks. To make matters worse, the special teams unit let down the team again, this time in the form of a blocked punt. All in all, it was a tough week for the Mammoths, and one that might have cost them a shot at a NESCAC Championship.

Now It’s Getting Good: Stock Report 10/15

Last week’s slate of games offered one more competitive contest than most of us expected. In the 6 o’clock nightcap, Wesleyan’s Matthew Simco ’22 managed a last second 29 yard touchdown catch to take down Tufts in our Game of the Week. This is the second week in a row that the Cardinals have managed a win by a score of 20-13. They’ll need their offense to be more explosive moving forward, as every team remaining on their schedule is better than every team they’ve played so far. This would normally be the most exciting game of any week had winless Colby not played the game of their season. They traveled up to Middlebury having lost every game by at least 14 points with expectations at rock bottom. Something about playing the top dog must have fired the Mules up, though, because they came right out and took an early 13-0 lead. Once Middlebury woke up and realized it wasn’t in their best interest to get blown out by a winless team, they got Will Jernigan ’21 cooking with three touchdown runs in the process of taking a 27-13 lead. Colby would still not back down- they recovered a fumble in the Middlebury endzone with only an extra point needed to tie! However this, extra point was missed…along with a 32-yarder in the final seconds that would have all but won it for the Mules. Two missed extra points and a missed field goal only add to the pain of a one-point loss that could have been easily the biggest upset of the season. While it would have been nice to see one of the two undefeated teams fall in the final seconds last week, last week’s results set up a matchup of these two undefeateds that is sure to be a great barometer for both Middlebury and Wesleyan.

Stock Up

Williams WR Frank Stola

Stola has easily been the league’s best wideout since the start of the season. He has recorded at least a touchdown every game, and has had only one game with fewer than 100 yards receiving. If that wasn’t impressive enough, he has multiple four-touchdown performances and has averaged at least 18 yards per catch in every game. Not only does he lead the league in receiving yards and touchdowns, he has twice as many TDs as the next guy and averages 147 receiving yards per game while nobody else is even in triple digits. He was most recently seen lighting up Hamilton for 168 yards and 4 touchdowns on his way to NESCAC Offensive Player of the Week honors. Those are the kind of numbers that will vault you into Williams and NESCAC lore for years to come. Expect Stola to have another monster performance this week against a porous Bates secondary.

Middlebury’s Luck

I don’t mean to say that Middlebury doesn’t deserve to be on top of the standings right now. They are clearly a much improved team this year; they have played to their strengths and Coach Ritter deserves substantial credit for squeezing this record out of a roster that probably doesn’t have the most talent in the league. They also clearly have a knack for winning close games. But let’s look at some of their wins. They beat a Trinity team that suddenly lost its starting running back the week before the game. They got the ball first in overtime against Amherst and threw an interception on the second play. Even more fortunately, Colby left five points on the board via missed kicks and gave away a win they really should have had this past Saturday. If all those outcomes hadn’t gone Middlebury’s way, the standings would be painting a very different picture right now. Give the Panthers credit, because they still needed to do a lot of things right to beat Amherst, Williams, and Trinity. However, I think they have gotten some bounces in their direction and would not be able to beat all three of these teams twice in a row. We will see if Midd will need to continue to squeak out close games or if they win more convincingly- if the latter happens for the rest of the season, I will be a believer that they are the best in the NESCAC this year.

Trinity RB Tijani Harris

One of the more perplexing storylines of the season is how Trinity has lost two games despite being ranked first in both total offense and total defense. The answer to that question has a lot to do with penalties and turnovers, but there’s a reason the Bantams continue to dominate a lot of the right categories. Whether or not they win every game, Trinity’s talent just seems to run deeper than other teams year in and year out. Harris is a great example of that. He came in as the third string running back behind fellow sophomores Spencer Lockwood ’22 and Draquan Jones ’22 and barely saw action as a freshman. When both of those guys went down, Harris immediately stepped in and produced against Hamilton with 115 yards and one touchdown in what ended up being a one-touchdown game. He then continued to ball out with 139 yards and another score against Bates this past weekend. Other teams would be in a huge hole if their top two backs went down, but it’s next man up in Hartford. Harris is a great reminder that there are usually guys riding the bench at Trinity, Williams etc that may have been studs (or at least contributors) on weaker NESCAC teams. With Seamus Lambert ’22 playing better and plenty of offensive weapons at his disposal, it will be interesting to see what kind of damage Harris and the Bantams can do against the meat of their schedule at the end of the season.

Stock Down

Hamilton Defense

The Continentals have allowed 399, 419, and 380 yards of offense in their last three games. They have also allowed at least 24 points in every game and have played two out of the three CBB teams. Hamilton’s offense has talent, but is not good enough to keep up with some of the crazy totals the defense is allowing. There was talk of All-NESCAC LB Tyler Hudson ’19 returning for a redshirt year after he missed his senior season last year with an injury, but he is gone and the Continentals have continued to feel his loss. Most recently, they allowed four touchdowns to Williams WR Frank Stola ’21. If one guy alone accounts for more than double your entire team’s scoring output, there’s a problem. Hamilton is not yet ranked in the bottom three in total defense thanks to their confidence-boosting CBB friends, but the way they’ve been giving up scores lately has made it tough for the Continentals to stay competitive.

Kickers

Everyone knows these guys have a high pressure job, but some of the NESCAC’s kickers look like they’re eyeing a tryout for the Chicago Bears. Most obviously, Colby’s Moises Celaya ’22 was 2 for 4 on extra points last weekend and missed his only field goal attempt, a 32-yarder in the final seconds that would have given the Mules a massive first win and the Panthers an even more massive first loss. The fact that all these points were left on the board makes Colby’s loss all the more gut-wrenching for NESCAC fans hoping for the upset. In the other close game of the weekend, Tufts’ Matt Alswanger missed two field goals in another one-score game. This is even tougher to stomach when you consider that his counterpart, Wesleyan’s Mason Von Jess ’23, was perfect on two field goals and two extra points, swinging the game in the Cardinals’ direction. Amherst is 5-10 on field goals this season, and Bates has not even attempted one…the Bobcats are 1 for 5 on extra points, so they may want to get a hang of those before they start going for 50 yarders. Clearly, great kickers are hard to come by in D3 football. But it may be in some of these schools’ best interest to send a football coach to the soccer team’s practices, because a lot of the league’s current kickers aren’t getting it done when it counts.

Middlebury, Vermont – Title Town?: Stock Report 10/9

Unless you live under a rock you probably heard something about the epic, double-overtime Middlebury-Amherst game on Saturday. Fortunately for those of you that do live under a rock, I’m going to talk a little bit more about it. This football game was an absolute classic. The Panthers raced out to a 21-0 lead before the end of the first quarter and when I saw that I thought it was going to get ugly in a hurry. Apparently I forgot that the Mammoths don’t fold because before I knew it Amherst held a 28-21 lead and had possession of the ball with 10 minutes left to play. This is when the game really started to live up to the hype (much of which was created by us). The Middlebury defense forced a 3 and out and just a few plays into the subsequent drive, Will Jernigan ’21 connected with Greg Livingston ’20 for a 54 yard touchdown to even things up with 6 minutes left.

After the Mammoths couldn’t get anything going on the other end, Jernigan orchestrated a 9-play, 2 and a half-minute drive to put the Panthers on the Amherst 10-yard line with 33 seconds left to play. You’d think that with the game tied at this point Middlebury would run the ball a few times and then kick a field goal as time expired – particularly because their running back, Alex Maldjian ’23, was having a career day. Instead, the Panthers went with the Pete Carroll strategy from Super Bowl XLIX and they passed the ball. Those up in Vermont must not have remembered how that worked out for the Seahawks, because Jernigan had his next pass picked off by John Ballard ’20 at the goal line to send it to overtime.

Middlebury received the ball first in overtime looking to redeem themselves and Jernigan was intercepted, again, on the second play of the drive. This put Amherst in essentially the same position that the Panthers were in at the very end of the game – you’re already in field goal range, so just be careful with the ball for a few plays then kick a field goal and go home. If only it were that easy. On a 3^rd and 10 play, Eberth took a shot towards the end zone and was picked off by Finn Muldoon ’23, sending the game into double overtime. Absolutely bananas.

This time the Mammoths got the ball first and didn’t put much together, but they were finally able to kick that elusive field goal to take a 31-28 lead. On 3^rd and 5 from the Amherst 20, Jernigan found Maxwell Rye ’20 for a 7-yard completion and a first down, avoiding kicking a field goal to force a third overtime. The Amherst defense stayed tough and forced another 3^rd and long, but Jernigan made a big-time play and found Maxwell Rye ’20 again, this time in the end zone to secure the win (and potentially a NESCAC Championship) for the Panthers.

I know it’s easy to find out everything you just read by looking at the box scores and reading the recaps from each team’s website, but those don’t give you the human element. This was the type of game that every player on both of these teams will remember forever. This was historically two of the best teams in the NESCAC battling it out like great teams do for the right to take home a trophy. That’s the type of game this was; it felt like a championship game. NESCAC sports are special because of games like this one and, as you’ll read more about below, it likely will be the championship game barring an unexpected collapse by the Panthers.

Stock up

Middlebury’s Title Chances

No reason to wait around here – the Panthers have put themselves in the driver’s seat for the NESCAC Championship. They’ve now taken down Trinity, Williams, and Amherst who are three of the top four other teams in the league. This means that even if they lose a game they still hold the tiebreaker over each of these squads and that is absolutely huge. The most obvious challenger is undefeated Wesleyan, but keep in mind that Wesleyan’s four wins have come against Colby, Hamilton, Bates, and Bowdoin so they literally have to play the five best teams in the conference over their last five games. Now I’m not saying that the Cardinals aren’t going to win all five, but they ha– actually I am saying that they aren’t going to win all five. In fact, I’d be surprised if they even won three. The league is Middlebury’s to lose at this point so stay tuned to find out if they pull an ’04 Yankees on us.

League Entertainment Value

Looking at the slate of games heading into this weekend, it didn’t look like we were in for very much excitement. Aside from Amherst-Middlebury every game featured a team traditionally found at the top half of the league versus a team traditionally at the bottom. I’ll be honest, I was expecting several blowouts. I was very happy to find out that I was wrong, because every game besides Williams-Colby ended up as one-score games in the fourth quarter with the trailing team possessing the ball. Bates, Hamilton, and Bowdoin all had chances to lead game winning or game-tying drives against Tufts, Trinity, and Wesleyan, respectively. At the end of the day these games were all won by the favorites, but if we’re going to have such blatant imbalances in the standings then at least it’s nice to have that little bit of hope that the underdog might win, right? If nothing else it keeps fans in the stands until the end of the game…

Bates Offense

Likely the biggest surprise of the weekend came from the Bobcat offense who came into the league last in most statistical categories. It also didn’t seem favorable that they were matched up against the Jumbo defense that had only allowed 8 points to the NESCAC’s top scoring offense. Apparently this didn’t faze the young Bates offense, because they came out firing. Brendan Costa ’21 was throwing the ball all over the field, connecting with 7 different receivers en route to his first 200-yard game of the season. Their goal line touches were dominated by fantasy vulture Christian Sanfilippo ’21, who had 6 carries for 11 yards and 3 touchdowns. Talk about getting your 19 fantasy points the hard way. This was the first time all year that Bates looked like they could really put solid drives together using both the run and the pass, which is a serious improvement. They had to go 88 yards in 90 seconds to cap off a 19-point comeback and were ultimately unsuccessful, but this looked like a completely different unit on Saturday. We’ll see if the improvements are enough to take down the Trinity Bantams for the first time since 1979.

Stock down

Bantam Dynasty

I’ll be honest I’ve been really excited to write this stock down for a while now, but I wanted to wait until it was the right time. Now feels like a good enough time for me. Trinity is still one of the best teams in the league, so this speaks more to how good they have been over the last three years than to their struggles this season. Prior to this season this year’s senior class had a 24-2 career record with three NESCAC Championships. That’s dominant. Through four games this season they already have two losses and really haven’t looked like the same team at all. They did what they should have done against Bowdoin, but their showing against a much weaker Hamilton team was not the Bantam football that we’re accustomed to seeing. Again, I don’t mean to say that we won’t see another NESCAC Championship trophy make its way to Hartford in the near future, but the time has come that we can officially say that Trinity is not the best team in the conference. They won’t win the conference championship this year and their ridiculous run, for now, is over. Finally it’s someone else’s turn.

Amherst Offense

If Middlebury had lost to Amherst, they probably would’ve found themselves in the stock down category as well. The Mammoths should have won that game for a number of different reasons, the most obvious of which is the fact that they had the ball on Middlebury’s 25-yard line in overtime, only needing a field goal to win it. Are you kidding me? Granted Middlebury blew it at the end of regulation, but shouldn’t that have taught them how to handle the exact same situation less than 20 minutes later? I don’t want to put the whole thing on QB Ollie Eberth ’20, but throwing 4 picks certainly isn’t the way I would go about winning a championship. Including overtime, the Mammoths possessed the ball for 50 minutes, compared to just 25 for Middlebury. Let that sink in. Amherst had the ball for twice as long as the Panthers and still lost. All the Mammoths can do now is focus on the next game and hope things fall their way. It’s an uphill battle from here.

History of the Good and Bad Kind: Stock Report 10/1

Stock Up

Middlebury’s Championship Aspirations

Middlebury once again shocked everyone on Saturday when they soundly defeated Trinity to assert themselves in the driver’s seat for the NESCAC Championship. On top of already having a game in hand on the Ephs, Saturday’s win put the Panthers two games clear of the Bantams. Will Jernigan ‘21 is becoming a superstar in this simple (yet efficient) offense, and the ball-hawking secondary continues to create turnovers. They racked up four interceptions against Trinity, highlighted by Kevin Hartley’s pick-six. The defensive line played extremely well, and in particular Alex Norton ‘20 made several big plays (seven tackles (three for loss) and two sacks). Trinity offensive lien The Panthers aren’t out of the woods just yet as they are set to hit the road for a clash with fellow undefeated heavyweight Amherst, but the team from Vermont certainly looks (at this point in the season) to be the strongest and most resilient team in NESCAC.

Ashton Scott’s MVP Campaign

I fully understand that the Cardinals have not played a game against a top-five conference foe to date, but quarterback Ashton Scott ‘22 is doing exactly what Coach DiCenzo wants on the offensive end. Scott had another excellent performance against Bates, completing 70% of his passes and two scores. He leads all NESCAC quarterbacks in efficiency rating (174.3), touchdown passes (8) and is tied with Williams’ Bobby Maimaron with having thrown the least interceptions (1). Scott knows that his defense is one of the more elite units thus far in the conference, so sustaining long drives while avoiding negative plays is key to his side of the ball’s success. Through three games, Scott has been sacked only once, a testament to his mobility and pocket awareness in addition to his football IQ.

Frank Stola’s Quest for History

Even with a quiet game by his standards (2 receptions for 69 yards and a touchdown), Stola continues to pursue multiple records within a single season. The junior caught his seventh touchdown of the season against the Polar Bears, positioning himself well on pace to top the all-time single season record of 15 receiving touchdowns. His 453 receiving yards to date would put him on pace to finish with well above 1,000, which would put him roughly 3rd or 4th in NESCAC history for a single-season performance. Of course Stola would rather have a NESCAC Championship than all of these personal accolades, but he has a very realistic chance to become one of the all-time great wide receivers the conference has ever witnessed.

Stock Down

Trinity QB Seamus Lambert

The sophomore quarterback had his worst performance as a member of the Bantams, but what makes it even more defining is that this game was basically a do-or-die scenario, and the loss basically cost the Bantams a shot at a fourth consecutive conference championship. Lambert had some success moving the ball through the air, but interception after interception doomed every drive Trinity sustained. I’m honestly surprised Jordan Vazzano ‘21 did not see any action against the Panthers because of how bad Lambert performed. Trinity is now a shocking 1-2 in the league and both instances are because Lambert’s poor play. Trinity must win out and have a boatload of luck in order to maybe tie for the championship, and if the sophomore quarterback isn’t already benched, he will have to protect the ball a whole lot better.

CBB Defenses

The CBB crew has been the doormat of the NESCAC for a few years now, and this season is no exception. Colby, Bowdoin and Bates both have their fair share of problems on the offensive side of the ball, but each team’s respective defense has been nothing short of atrocious. Combined, the three Maine schools are allowing 113.6 points per game. The other seven teams in the conference? 117.7 points per game. Moreover, the CBB squads are the only three teams that allow over 30+ points per game and at least 400 yards of total offense per game. Bates has the worst pass defense (246 yards per game) and allowed 34 first half points to Wesleyan in their 48-12 shellacking. The Polar Bears feature the worst run defense BY FAR (275.3 yards per game), highlighted by allowing five first half touchdowns against Williams last Saturday. Colby is equally bad on both sides of the ball (202 yards per game for both the run and pass defenses) and just gave up 45 points to Hamilton. All three of these schools will have absolutely zero chance of beating a non-CBB school if the defenses continued to get steamrolled like this.

Same Old, Same Old: Stock Report 9/25

Stock Up

The Bantam Offense

After a very slow week one, in which Trinity’s offense was only able to find the back of the endzone once, the Bantam offense seemed frustrated. A few adjustments throughout the week and a much easier assignment allowed Trinity’s offense to explode for a 61-point tirade. It was clear from the start that Bowdoin was no match for QB Seamus Lambert ’22. Lambert lit up the Polar Bears for nearly 400 yards and 5 touchdowns, 4 of which went to WR Devante Reid ’22. Running backs Spencer Lockwood ’22 and Draquan Jones ’22 both got more than 10 touches and Lockwood rushed for 2 touchdowns. This was exactly the performance that the Bantam’s needed to right the ship and put themselves back on the course to compete for yet another championship. The Bantam’s will head up to Vermont to face Middlebury next weekend in what could be a vital game for both teams.

The Duo of QB Bobby Maimaron and WR Frank Stola

A tough defeat in week one to a Middlebury left Bobby Maimaron ’21 and the rest of the Ephs in a tough spot. Their opponent would not get any weaker in the coming week as they had to prepare for Tufts, who was fresh off a win against Trinity. It seemed like a close matchup on paper between Tufts and Williams, but when the Jumbo defense took the field they had no answer for the combo of QB Bobby Maimaron ’21 and WR Frank Stola ’21. Stola caught all 4 of Maimaron’s touchdown passes for a total of 13 catches, 233 yards and 4 TDs. Maimaron went for 289 yards in the air with the 4 TDs as well as tacking on 100 more yards and a TD on the ground. It is not surprising to see that through two weeks Stola leads the conference in receptions, yards and touchdowns. Maimaron is also impressive, leading the conference in touchdowns and coming in second in yards in the air. These two are a scary combo that even Tufts, who held Trinity to a mere 8 points, couldn’t keep out of the endzone. Next weekend Williams will host Bowdoin, which should give Maimaron and Stola a chance to further pad what are already impressive statistics.

Middlebury Defense

It was yet another impressive week for the Middlebury D as they were able to shutout Bates with a decisive score of 28-0. This success builds upon last week they held a very potent Williams offense to just two scores. In week two Middlebury forced Bates to punt 10 times, giving the offense absolutely no room to breathe. Neither QB that the Bobcats threw out there was able to able to reach 60 yards passing and they were held to less than 100 yards of total rushing. LB Pete Huggins ’21 continues to terrorize quarterbacks as he added 4 tackles (1 sack, 2 TFL) against Bates, putting him 1st in the conference in both sacks and assists. Sitting atop the conference at 2-0, the Panthers are in a prime position to establish themselves as legitimate contenders for a NESCAC championship. They will have the opportunity to prove that they can hang with the big dogs when they host Trinity this weekend.

Stock Down

The CBB

It is a tough time to be a football fan up here in Maine as all 3 of our beloved CBB teams are sitting in the cellar of the conference right now at 0-2. First are the Bates Bobcats, who looked very impressive in their first few minutes of football this year as they had the lead over Amherst going into the half. While they may remember that lead fondly now, it did not last. They were shut out in the second half and subsequently shut out in their next game by Middlebury. It has been trending straight downhill for the Bobcats and they are set to receive another tough assignment as they head down to Connecticut to face a 2-0 Cardinal squad. Next are the Polar Bears of Bowdoin who had one of their best opportunities to get a win this season in their week 1 matchup with Hamilton, but fell short. The Polar Bears and Continentals were back and forth throughout but it was clear that Hamilton was a better team and they took home the win. Week 2 was doomed from the start as they played an upset Trinity squad who was looking for points they couldn’t find the week before and they found plenty of them. Bowdoin plays Williams next but the only games for the Polar Bears that matter now are their CBB contests. Finally we have the Colby Mules who have come up consistently short in their first two performances. Former NESCAC Rookie of the Year QB Matt Hersch ’22 is starting to get comfortable in his first season of full-time starting but turnovers on offense have really been what has killed the Mules thus far. The Mules have a very welcome change of pace this weekend as they take on a 1-1 Hamilton squad who they were able to beat last year. This is the best opportunity we have seen this year for a CBB team to take a W so Mules fans be ready.

Tufts Defense

The Jumbos were riding high after week 1, having taken down the 3-time defending champs Trinity. The Jumbo defense was outstanding against Trinity, recording 6 sacks and 2 interceptions while holding the dangerous Bantam offense to 8-points. Then came week 2, which changed the narrative completely. From stuffing the defending champs to letting an 0-1 squad run up and down the field, week 1 and week 2 were night and day for the Jumbos. Tufts was able to record no turnovers and only one sack against Williams. The swing in performance for this defence is remarkable and must keep the defensive coordinator up at night wondering what went so wrong in between the two games. Unfortunately for the Jumbos they will not have a lot of time to assess questions like that as they must prepare for an Amherst team that sits atop our power rankings.

That Was Only Week 1??: Stock Report 9/17

Stock up

Tufts defense

There was no way that the Jumbo D wasn’t going to find itself in the stock up column this week. They held the league’s top scoring team over the last several seasons to just 8 (!!) points – the Bantams haven’t scored that few points in a game since the 2015 season. On the day, the Tufts defense recorded 6 sacks, 13 tackles for a loss, 2 interceptions, and 5 pass breakups. They were in the face of Trinity quarterback Seamus Lambert all day – so much so that Coach Devanney subbed in Jordan Vazzano ’21 for the final drive. While the entire unit deserves credit, the performance of the day was undoubtedly that of D-lineman Jovan Nenadovic ’22 who added 9 tackles including 3 sacks and 5 tackles for a loss. It was also a terrific effort by the Jumbo secondary in locking up the lethal wide receiver duo of Koby Schofer ’20 and Jonathan Girard ’21 because those guys truly are two of the top three or four receivers in the league. If this defense can hold the NESCAC’s best offense to just 8 points then it’ll certainly be a scary year for any opposing team who visits Medford.

Will Jernigan clutch gene

Jernigan is starting to look like an upperclassman

This is also an easy one because Middlebury surprised all of us by beating Williams in the final minute on a drive orchestrated by none other than Will Jernigan ’21. The junior had a solid day under center – 16-33 for 170 yards with 1 touchdown and no interceptions, while adding 82 yards and a touchdown on the ground as well. This is certainly a fine effort, but what’s interesting here is that Jernigan is known as more of a run-threat quarterback and he was put in a position where he had to throw the ball. The Panthers got the ball back from Williams on their own 22-yard line with 2:31 left, down 13-10. They had to at least get into field goal range to give their kicker a chance to send it into overtime, but Jernigan engineered a 7-play, 78-yard drive in which he went 4-4 with 61 yards in the air. This was not something we were seeing out of him last season and it’s very, very promising for Middlebury. Look for Jernigan to keep things rolling as the Panthers head up to Maine to take on the Bates Bobcats.

Championship excitement

More than anything else, the first weekend showed us that the league is wide open this year. The three-time defending camps have a losing record for the first time since 2001, Hamilton leads the league in points (Trinity has the fewest), Amherst and Bates were tied going into the fourth quarter, and Ashton Scott ’22 proved that Mark Piccirillo isn’t the only Wesleyan quarterback who can throw the ball. I also like that the NESCAC decided to flip around the schedule a little bit this year – seeing Tufts and Trinity play each other Week 1 was pretty cool. I honestly was starting to think that Trinity was going to run away with the league this year, so I’m glad that they got handed a loss right off the bat. This is going to be a fun season.

Stock down

Chance for a four-peat

The archives on the NESCAC website only go back to 2000, but there has never been a team win four consecutive outright NESCAC football championships since then. Trinity had a real chance to do that coming into this season and they still very well do, but this weekend was a real setback. Their schedule is somewhat backloaded, however, because their last three games are against Williams, Amherst, and Wesleyan who are three of the four best teams left on their schedule. They play Middlebury on the road during Week 3 and that will be a huge one too, but for now they’ll have to focus on Bowdoin this weekend. I’m interested to see if the Bantams stick with Seamus Lambert ’22 at quarterback, or if putting Vazzano in for the final drive against Tufts was some sort of foreshadowing. They’ve got some work to do.

Power rankings

I have to admit; I chuckle to myself at the thought of having to write the power rankings this week. Wesleyan had the biggest win, but how good is Colby? They looked pretty good at the end of last year. Bates held their own against Amherst, but they are coming off an 0-9 season so how much does that factor in? Do you go 0-1 Trinity over 1-0 Hamilton? I think you do, but that’s sort of hard to justify. Although at the same time it’s not hard to justify because it’s Trinity. Does 0-1 Williams sneak ahead of a 1-0 team? I’m excited to see what he comes up with but I honestly feel bad for Karp having to write the power rankings this week. Keep an eye out for them over the next few days…