Last weekend’s quarterfinal matchups produced some shockers. High seeded teams such as Conn College and Middlebury fell. Amherst and Hamilton shocked the NESCAC world by coming into the playoffs as low seeds, and pulling off those upsets. And in less shocking news, Tufts and Williams continued their dominance. All but one game had a 1-0 score. This semifinal weekend will be just as exciting as the quarter final weekend with dominant teams playing the underdogs. As we saw last weekend, never count any team out. Here is a preview of the semifinal matchups:
#7 Amherst vs #1 Williams (Williamstown, MA, 11:00 AM)
As fate would have it, Amherst and Williams will meet in the playoffs. Similar to Yankees/Red Sox, Lakers/Celtics, Alabama/Auburn rivalries, the Amherst and Williams rivalry is one of the most storied rivalries not only in college sports, but in sports altogether. In a late September game, Williams narrowly defeated Amherst by a 3-2 margin. November soccer, however, is a lot different than September soccer. These are two different teams from the ones that met in September.
Aspen Pierson ’21 will be the key to Williams’ continued dominance.
Williams kept rolling with an almost perfect record–albeit with a loss to Middlebury. One major boost for Williams is Aspen Pierson ‘21. Pierson is coming off offseason hip surgery that has limited her playing time. She made her Eph debut in an October game against Wesleyan, and has steadily been logging increasing minutes. She’s a dynamic playmaker with great field vision. Her anticipation and soccer IQ only adds to Williams’ already potent arsenal.
Amherst also is a much improved team since that September game. I’ll admit, I wrote them off in the mid season power rankings because of their lack of defensive discipline even though they compiled impressive offensive statistics. It looks like the team has completely righted that ship. Amherst knocked off the second seeded Conn College Camels in a cinderella 1-0 win. I don’t think Amherst had the discipline earlier in the year to win a 1-0 game against a very strong team like the Camels. This win, nevertheless, shows the improvement Amherst has made. Rubii Tamen ‘19 scored the lone Amherst goal. Tamen has been one of the best offensive players for Amherst, and will be looked upon if the team wants to pull off the upset. There’s no doubt Williams is the more talented team. Williams and Amherst matchups, however, are almost always a coin flip. However, I believe that it is Williams’ year:
Prediction: Williams 2-1
#6 Hamilton vs #4 Tufts (Williamstown, MA, 1:30 PM)
The Hamilton Continentals’ road to the finals has not been easy. First, they had to defeat a team [Middlebury] that accomplished something no other team in the country could do: beat Williams. Middlebury’s loss to Hamilton was truly a shocker. Emily Dumont ‘18 stood on her head in net all day–making a few desperation saves to keep Hamilton in the game. Maddie Dale ‘20 scored her first goal of the season at the most opportune time. Once Hamilton got the lead, the Continentals never looked back. I would say that everything had to go the way it did for Hamilton to secure the win. Dumont had to not let anything past her, and someone had to step up for the Continentals. Similar to Amherst, the Continentals are steamrolling into this semifinal matchup.
Maddie Dale ’20 scored the clutch game winner against Middlebury.
If I were Tufts, I wouldn’t want to play a hot team. In the NESCAC, however, there are no easy matchups–especially during the playoffs. Tufts’ road to the semifinals had to go through Trinity; the Bantams put up a real fight, but Tufts’ composure that they’ve showed all season carried them to a win. After that embarrassing loss to Williams in October, it seems like Tufts has turned the page, and gone back to what they do best: defense and Sophie Lloyd ’21. Lloyd has carried the Jumbos all season. Her lone goal was the difference maker in the game against Trinity. The freshman sensation’s sixteen points on the season is one of the major reasons of the team’s success. This game will be played after the Amherst/Williams game, so both teams will know which team they could possibly face in the finals. Like in all sports, Hamilton and Tufts need to remember to take one game at a time, and not worry about Williams/Amherst. I’m going to go with the upset here:
Time for the worthy to shine and the hesitant to stumble. We are now down to eight of the finest squads in the country to battle it out for ‘Cac supremacy, and there will be no cakewalks for any team from here on out (looking at you, Tufts). This quarterfinal round presents some appealing and somewhat dangerous matchups, producing an element of added pressure that so often cripples a team’s fate in playoff soccer.
Williams (6) at Bowdoin (3), 12:30 PM
Bowdoin opens up their playoffs at home against a solid Williams team. In their first game matching up in September, the Polar Bears were able to secure a win with a late goal in the second half at home; that being said, these two teams match up very closely together. Despite Bowdoin being higher ranked in the playoff seedings, these two squads have had eerily similar seasons from a statistical point of view. They each have scored 18 goals while Bowdoin has conceded 8 compared to Williams’ 9. Despite the substance of their overall campaigns being almost identical, Bowdoin has managed to score almost two goals for every goal conceded in conference, while Williams scored one for every one against in NESCAC play. What I can garner from this is that Bowdoin has, to this point in the season, performed better against the higher quality teams compared to their Ephs opponent.
Bowdoin will have to keep relying on their stalwart defense, led by recent conference player of the week and goalkeeper Stevie Van Siclen ’18. The senior keeper has continued to be a reliable force in the net and will look to get a clean sheet in front of his home crowd. Offensively, senior Ethan Ellsworth ’18 will attempt to generate the offense for the Polar Bears, leading the team in points in the regular season.
The Ephs need to find a way to create some chances on Saturday, looking to senior Mark Sisco-Tomoleo ’18 and sophomore Bobby Fabricant ’20 to open up the play for this Williams side. In order for the Ephs to truly take advantage of Bowdoin in hostile Brunswick territory, they must take the game to the Polar Bears and pounce on them early.
Prediction: Williams 1 – Bowdoin 2
Hamilton (7) at Amherst (2), 1:00 PM
The defending conference champion Mammoths will seek to open up their title defense in the opening round of the playoffs this upcoming Saturday. Up to this point in the season, Amherst has put on an offensive display, scoring 31 goals in their 15 games played. What they will need to be cautious of is their sometimes vulnerable defense, as they were only fifth in fewest goals allowed in the conference. On the other side, the Continentals come into this game having let up the ninth fewest goals per game, meaning that if Amherst is executing their plays, the Mammoths could easily take advantage of the at-times frail Hamilton defense. In their opening matchup, and to the surprise of many, the Continentals were able to squeak out a tie against the Amherst squad. However, I bet the Mammoths will be looking to get their revenge, especially on their home turf.
Sebastian Derby ’21
For Amherst, they will need to look to standout freshman Sebastian Derby ’21, who leads the team in goals and overall points. This matchup is a good chance for Derby to get a taste of his first collegiate playoff run.
On the other side, Hamilton will call on sophomore Aidan Wood ’20 to direct this offense. If the Continentals want to make a statement in these playoffs, knocking off the defending champs would be a good start.
Prediction: Hamilton 0 – Amherst 2
Middlebury (5) at Connecticut College (4), 2:00 PM
The #4 and #5 seeds square off in this opening round of the playoffs in New London this upcoming Saturday. The Camels will look to prove why they are one of the most dominant forces in the conference, and according to their regular season stats, they are statistical stars. Conn lets in an average of about 1 goal every 2 games, while scoring about 2 times for every single game played; they are also tied for second in the conference in goals scored. I see an issue for the Panthers in this matchup, seeing as they usually give up as many goals as they score, which is definitely not a recipe for success entering the playoffs with these powerful opposing teams. In their meeting during the regular season, Conn beat the Panthers 2-1 in Vermont. If they were able to beat Middlebury away in their NESCAC opener, I have no reason to doubt that they will bring an even fiercer gameplay to the Panthers on their home field in front of a playoff crowd.
For Conn, Ben Manoogian ’19 will look to continue his exceptional play, with his team-leading 17 points. Defensively, the Camels stick freshman A.J. Marcucci ’21 between the posts, as he ranks third in the conference in saves.
Drew Goulart ’20
As for Middlebury, the key to their offense will be sophomore Drew Goulart ’20, who leads the team in both assists (3) and goals (4). He will need to step up and try to score in front of a raucous Camel crowd.
Score Prediction: Middlebury 0 – Conn. College 2
Bates (8) at Tufts (1), 2:30 PM
The last matchup we have for you this weekend is between top-seeded Tufts and eighth-seeded Bates. Looking at the numbers, Tufts has been unstoppable this year. They have let up 1 goal the whole season, and are also leading the conference in goals per game. Their only hiccup this season came against a stingy Amherst squad, but they stepped on the throttle only harder for the second half of the season. For Bates, I think they are just enjoying the ride up to this point. They had an unbelievable win in double OT (scoring with less than 30 seconds left) against Colby to squeak into the playoffs. Hopefully they can ride that excitement into the quarterfinals and try to put up a fight against this extremely talented Jumbos squad. In their matchup during the regular season, Bates managed to put up a good fight, but lost 1-0 on their home field.
For Tufts, it is hard to name just one player that will be the key to their success. They have senior Dexter Eichhorst ’18, sophomore Gavin Tasker ’20, and senior keeper Bruce Johnson ’18, who has yet to let in a goal all season.
As for the Bates squad, they have the conference leader in points in Nate Merchant ’21, and also defensive lockdown stud Morgan Dewdney ’19. Hopefully these two can will this Bobcats team to a strong effort against this Tufts powerhouse.
One of the results of the lack of parity in the NESCAC football (and of course the lack of a playoff system) is that every year there is a regular season game that serves as a de facto “Super Bowl” for the league. The two best teams in the league meet in a game that pretty much decides who will finish with the best record in the league. The 2017 iteration of that game is this weekend, when 6-0 Trinity travels down to Alumni Field to take on 5-1 Middlebury.
Trinity has spent the whole season as the best team in the league. They have gutted out defensive battles against the two high quality opponents they’ve played (Williams and Tufts) and have absolutely blasted lower tier teams, including a 63 point performance against Bowdoin last weekend. However, Williams was able to make their offense look very fallible. They did this by using a strong defensive front to shut down star RB Max Chipouras ’19. Chipouras only had 80 yards on 28 carries against the Ephs, by far his least efficient performance of the season. Shutting down Chipouras forces QB Sonny Puzzo ’18 to play more traditionally, instead of running outside the pocket and making big plays. Puzzo is easily good enough to do this and win (as Williams saw,) but it eliminates a huge part of their offense.
Unfortunately, the Trinity defense has yet to look fallible. They have forced 16 turnovers on the season, and have players all over the field who are threats to turn those turnovers into touchdowns. They don’t have any real statistical standouts on the defensive end–although that is in large part due to the fact that their starters rarely play fourth quarters–but LB Liam Kenneally ’18 is terrific in coverage and in stopping the run game. And more importantly for the match up with Jared Lebowitz ’18 and the pass-happy Panthers is their dominant secondary. Dominique Seagears ’18 is one of the most dangerous coverage men in the league, with two interception return touchdowns to his credit. He and Samier Madden ’19 form a duo that should give Lebowitz trouble like Lionel Richie would–all night long.
Dominique Seagears ’18 is deadly in the secondary, with two return touchdowns already this season.
As dominant as Trinity has been, Middlebury has been equally so, except for a fatal five minute stretch in the fourth quarter against Williams. Middlebury’s offense is based around Lebowitz and his squadron of speedy, tall receivers, and it is a well oiled machine when all the pieces are healthy. Middlebury averages the second most points and yards per game (second to Trinity, but still,) and that is despite a mediocre rushing attack. That is also despite a schedule that has included Williams and Amherst, two of the three best defenses in the league by any statistical measure. Against Amherst, who leads the league in sacks and is second in yards per game, Lebowitz threw three touchdowns and was only sacked twice. That is what makes this game so exciting; these two teams are both best suited to beat each other. Just as it should be in the Super Bowl.
Key Player for Middlebury: LB Aaron Slodowitz ’18
Happiest Player in the CAC Aaron Slodowitz ’18 (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)
This pick is a very optimistic one. Lebowitz left the Bates game halfway through with an ankle injury, forcing backup Jack Meservy ’19 to fill in, which he did admirably. If Lebowitz is out, Meservy immediately becomes the key, as Middlebury cannot win this game without a great QB performance. But on the assumption that Lebowitz will play, Slodowitz and the rest of the linebackers become the key. Much of Middlebury’s defensive success rests on the backs of the three star senior linebackers; Slodowitz, Wesley Becton ’18 and John Jackson ’18. Becton and Jackson are particularly valuable in coverage, leaving Slodowitz free to crush running backs. Which he does with aplomb. Having fully recovered from a knee injury last season, Slodowitz had 18 tackles against the run-dominant Bates and leads the team with 46 overall. He doesn’t get in the backfield much, with 0 sacks on the year, but Becton and DL Alex Norton ’20 handle that. Slodowitz simply tackles dudes, and as Williams showed the league, the way to hang with Trinity is tackle one dude; Max Chipouras.
Key Player for Trinity: WR Koby Schofer ’20
Koby Schofer ’20 (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)
Assuming that Middlebury succeeds in slowing down Chipouras considerably, Trinity will have to throw the ball, especially to keep up with the Panthers breathless, pass-heavy scheme. This brings up the closest thing that Trinity has to a weakness; they really only have one weapon in the passing game, and that is Schofer. He is quite a weapon, however. Despite playing very little in the blowout of Bowdoin (as was the case with several Bantam starters,) Schofer is still fourth in the league in receptions with 35 and fifth in yards with 508. Schofer is actually quite similar to Middlebury WR Conrado Banky ’19. They are both smaller receivers who beat often larger defenders with quickness and terrific hands. The difference is that Middlebury has other receivers to pick up the slack from Banky (or replace him if he’s injured.) Schofer is so far and away Trinity’s best pass catcher that Middlebury will most likely double team him. In a game that is shaping up to be an aerial affair, Schofer is going to have to get around those double teams and give Puzzo a solid target.
Everything Else:
Conrado Banky has missed two games in a row, and his status for this one is very much in doubt. If he misses the game, Middlebury will be again looking for big performances from Maxwell Rye ’20 and Jimmy Martinez ’19, two large, fast targets for Lebowitz. Additionally, TE Frank Cosolito ’20 will be a big part of the passing attack. Cosolito has improved every week, and has a knack for showing up in big games. He had six catches for 58 yards and TD against Amherst. If Banky does play, all these guys will be key supplementary targets, and the Middlebury offense may well be unstoppable.
Conrado Banky ’19 adds yet another dimension to the Middlebury offense.
Special teams are going to be a key part of this game. Trinity K Eric Sachse ’19 is one of the best in the league (5/8 FG and 26/28 XP,) giving their offense a dimension in close games that many other teams don’t have. Additionally, Colin Beaulieu ’21 is a dangerous return man whom Middlebury has to watch out for. Of course, he is nowhere near as dangerous as Jimmy Martinez. Martinez has two of the four return touchdowns in the whole league this year, and the only kickoff return touchdown. Even when he doesn’t score, Martinez is constantly putting Middlebury in terrific field position, either through returns or by forcing bad kicks due to teams trying to avoid him. On the other end, P/WR Maxwell Rye has a huge leg, and often pinned Williams deep in their own territory. He will have to do this against Trinity, as giving them a short field is a death sentence. This is the kind of game that should come down to a single play, and that play may well be on special teams. In case you couldn’t tell, I’m very excited. I hope you all are as well.
Predicted Score:* Middlebury 27, Trinity 24
*This prediction is made with the assumption that Lebowitz is healthy and will play.
As the GOAT of all GOATs Herm Edwards once said, “Playoffs?!?!?” Indeed, the season of single elimination is upon us. This time last year Williams was heading into the playoffs as the dominant force in the league only to lose in cinderella fashion to Trinity. There’s a definitive answer as to why the NFL playoffs, World Cup, and March Madness are more fun to watch than other playoff games: they’re single elimination. Anything can happen. The NESCAC is such a strong conference that any one of these teams can make a bid at a national championship. Let’s look at this weekend’s quarter final match ups.
Here is the schedule for the first round of the playoffs this weekend.
Amherst College (7) vs. Connecticut College (2), 11:30 AM
Connecticut College was shocked by Bowdoin last Saturday in an abysmal 2-0 loss. The high powered offense of the Camels just couldn’t get going. A loss going into the playoffs doesn’t bode well for the team because of shaken confidence. However, the Camels are the number two seed for a reason. All year they’ve proved to the league why they’re one of its best teams. The opponent, however, should scare the Camels. Amherst is 3-1 in its past three games. In any time of struggle or doubt, individuals turn to people they can depend on. Conn’s Michelle Medina ‘18 and Lauren Steele ‘18 are those people. The senior midfielders lead their team in scoring, while providing leadership as well. As noted in earlier articles, Conn is a diverse team filled with young playmakers and veterans. Look for the seniors to set the tone for the Camels. Hannah Guzzi ‘18 barely squeaked Amherst into the playoffs. A disappointing regular season almost kept Amherst out of it all together. Guzzi’s astonishing eleven goals allowed Amherst to obtain a coveted playoff spot. Now that they’re here, the team can’t fully rely on Guzzi if she’s shutdown. I think Conn will be too much for Amherst.
Prediction: Connecticut College 1-0.
Hamilton (6) vs. Middlebury (3), 12:00 PM
Middlebury did what Conn and Tufts couldn’t: beat Williams. The shocker gives Middlebury all the confidence in the world. Midd isn’t a flashy team that depends on scoring at a high rate. In fact, its offensive metrics are mediocre at best. The team simply wins games, however. Beating Wesleyan on a late cross in overtime and squeaking out a tight win against Williams show that Midd is a force to be reckon with because it plays a full ninety minutes. Eliza Van Voorhis ‘21, Virginia Charman ‘20, and Sabrina Glaser ‘20 are tied with a team leading eleven points thus far in the season. Hamilton is 4-2-1 in its last seven games. The team’s strong play is a result of stellar goalkeeping by Emily Dumont ‘18. Dumont’s 0.57 GAA is outstanding, and is a major reason why the team has played so well. Similar to Midd, Hamilton doesn’t have one player that dominates the offensive output. Therefore, it’s tough as an opponent to focus on whom to shut down. I like the way both teams are playing, but Midd is just too strong down the stretch.
Prediction: Middlebury College 2-1
Middlebury’s penchant for clutch play continued with a late goal by Anna Glovin to hand Williams their first loss.
Bowdoin College (8) vs. Williams College (1), 12:00 PM
Bowdoin has been a sleeper the entire season. Many people, including myself, wrote the team off at the halfway point. The Polar Bears handily beat Conn in a 2-0 fashion. This fact should scare Williams. Earlier in the year, the Camels almost pulled off the upset against the Ephs, only to be denied by an Eph corner kick in overtime. The Polar Bears are led by Morgen Gallagher ‘20, who has eleven points on the season. The sophomore F/M is a playmaker, dishing out five assists and scoring four goals. Williams doesn’t want last year repeating itself. Like I said in the introduction, single game elimination scares the Ephs. Like Herb Brooks stated, “If we play them [Soviets] ten times, they may win nine. But not this game. Not tonight.” Any team playing the Ephs know that they could pull off the miracle. Williams has to stick to its game plan and play its game. That being strong defensive play with aggressive steps by defenders and crisp passing. The Ephs generally don’t make too many mistakes, but they can’t start the game flat. Building a lead early on in a playoff game is a necessity and confidence builder. Alison Lu ‘20 and Natasha Albaneze ‘18 lead the team with sixteen points. I don’t see the Ephs letting last year or last Saturday against Midd repeat itself.
Prediction: Williams 2-0
Trinity (5) vs Tufts (4), 12:00 PM
Tricia Pollack ’21 (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)
I picked Tufts to beat Williams last week because the Jumbos were hot. Instead, they got trounced by the Ephs in an embarrassing fashion. The Jumbos had all the momentum in the world until they ran into the Ephs. The Bo’s need to remember that they’re still a really strong team. A 1-0 win against Bowdoin on Tuesday should remind them that. Like all year, Emily Bowers ‘19 has led the team; she continues to be at the top of the league in all goalkeeper metrics, along with Williams’ Olivia Barnhill. Bowers must continue to be the best Jumbo on the field if they want to make a deep run into the playoffs. After a shaky start to the season, the Bantams are coming into the playoffs hot. 4-1-1 in their last six games is a great accomplishment with playoffs starting right now. Tricia Pollock ‘20 has been the woman I’ve mentioned in all Trinity articles as the key to the Bantam’s success. She’s the leader in points for the Bantams, and will be the difference maker for them down the stretch. Picking the hot team in the playoffs is the smart choice, however. I’m going with the Bantams.
Two straight weeks with what I deem to be an upset is monumental in NESCAC football. Things are getting turbulent for a number of top teams heading into the final three weeks (Really?! Only three weeks left?) and Trinity isn’t slowing down. Unfortunately, to have any excitement in the last two weeks, we are going to need to have Midd upset Trinity, otherwise, the Bantams will cruise to Title Town once again. Amherst and Tufts had resurgent weekends, although the Jumbos need a lot of help to realize their championship dreams. With Midd and Amherst tied in second at 5-1, this Midd vs. Trinity game is putting everything on the line for a number of teams. While that analysis will be done by Pete in a special article later on, here is the rest of the weekend breakdown, featuring some elimination do-or-die games for Amherst, Tufts, Wesleyan, and Williams, with an added rivalry game in the CBB series between Bates and Colby.
Griff Stalcup ’21 looks to rebound from a tough game against Trinity
Wesleyan (4-2) @ Bowdoin (0-6), 12:30 PM, Brunswick, ME
Wesleyan had a crushing loss against the Mammoths, basically ending all hopes for glory in 2017. While they still have a chance for a massive tie at 7-2 at the top of the division, unless they see the Bantams lose this week, they will not come out on top. Contrary to 2016 where they were able to overcome an opening week loss to go 6-0 until the final week, they lost all offensive capabilities in week six. Since they need help to win it all, they can only focus on their task at hand—burying the Polar Bears further into the abyss of defeat. Dario Highsmith didn’t play against Amherst and is a question mark heading in to this game, and although Mark Piccirillo has been historically good if not great at QB, he looked ineffective—to say the least—last week in Amherst territory. He threw just for 129 yards, no TDs, and the rest of the offense only gained 88 yards on the ground. They lacked spark and only kept the game close because of a Shayne Kaminski pick-six off of Ollie Eberth. While I pick them to win here, this has trap game (a.k.a. a game within two TDs) written on it if Dario Highsmith is still out.
Griff Stalcup regressed in week seven, losing some playing time to former starter Noah Nelson at QB. I’ll cut the kid some slack; He was a first year QB playing against the best team in the league. Nelson wouldn’t have done too well, either. Nate Richam didn’t play in the game, and as Bowdoin’s only offensive weapon, it he isn’t back, they will have a rough game. Stalcup did have a six yard TD run, and Nelson a four yard TD pass, so this game might just decide which QB starts for the Polar Bears in the final two games of their season against their fellow winless Maine teams. Wesleyan is not nearly as scary as an opponent as Trinity, but the absolute thrashing in week six couldn’t have helped this team’s confidence. They could make it interesting, but won’t have enough juice to overcome the Cardinals.
Predicted Score: Wesleyan 28, Bowdoin 14
Brendan Costa has had rushing success and looks to lead Bates to their first win
Bates (0-6) @ Colby (0-6), 1:00 PM, Waterville, ME
Well, one of the Maine football teams will finally find the win column this weekend. By virtue of Hamilton’s slight edge over the other bottom teams, Bates, Colby, and Bowdoin now all find themselves without wins heading into their CBB Consortium series for the crown of Maine. Bates’ Brendan Costa will be the most dynamic player on the field this Saturday for either team, and has locked himself in to the starting QB job. Despite a blowout loss at the hands of Middlebury—which was totally expected and inevitable—Costa still managed to throw for two scores, run for 131 yards, and only throw one pick. While the Bobcats lost two fumbles, one from Costa, one from WR Mickoy Nichol, they could have definitely played worse. With a little bit of offensive momentum going against a weak Mules team, Bates actually finds themselves as the favorite.
After facing a disappointing loss at the hands of another bottom tier NESCAC team, Colby looks to end their winning drought after an encouraging performance from QB Jack O’Brien. Both teams have developing signal-callers, but each is still winless. The Mules also saw a solid performance from K John Baron, earning the special teams player of the week honors, going 4/4 in total kicks. This fact isn’t overly relevant, but is among the only press coverage the Mules have seen all season, indicative of their lack of success. An aerial attack is the only way to find their first win as Bates’ defense is vulnerable, and Jake Schwern has struggled with efficiency lately. This will be run game against passing game, and the end result will show which rebuilding team has more hope for the future.
Predicted Score: Bates 24, Colby 14
Amherst (5-1) @ Tufts (4-2), 1:30 PM, Medford, MA
Amherst is now back in the title conversation with their win over Wesleyan, beating the Cardinals when the Jumbos could not earlier this season. Their lack of a high ceiling, as I mentioned in accordance with Reece Foy’s limping return from injury, is not as valid as I earlier thought. Rather than centering on a strong QB and stellar offensive attack, RB Jack Hickey and QB Ollie Eberth are now among the supporting cast to their dominant defense. Hasani Figueroa and Hickey didn’t get much going against the strong Wesleyan defense, and while they should have more success this weekend, Tufts QB Ryan McDonald should be worried about the Mammoth pass rush. Andrew Yamin had an unbelievable performance, racking up 5.5 sacks on Piccirillo, and was only half of the total attack on the opposing QB. The Tufts run game should be neutralized and McDonald will lack enough time in the pocket to get a whole lot going.
Tufts had a much needed win against Williams, knocking off their first strong opponent of the season. Given their loss to Wesleyan and the Ephs’ win over Midd the week before, this was a surprising victory, showing the prowess of QB Ryan McDonald who was able to find nine different receivers on the day. Jay Tyler and Mike Pedrini both had success on the ground, but should face much more challenge in the ground game this weekend. The Jumbos hope comes on defense where their pass rush leads the league with 25 sacks, one more than the Mammoths’ total. Who’s D-Line is better? Both teams should revert to a more passing heavy attack, but might lack sufficient time to throw. Defense rules in this game.
Predicted Score: Amherst 21, Tufts 17
Hamilton (2-4) @ Williams (4-2), 1:30 PM, Williamstown, MA
Hamilton has been the beneficiary of two weak opponents these past two weeks, bringing their record to a respectable 2-4. If they win out, they could actually finish with a winning record, and given their 0-4 start, that is a good cause for playing hard. I don’t think they have any chance to do that as they only have one more weak opponent, but this could be the game where they show that their week one game was not total luck. They barely lost to Tufts, and I have looked at this game over and over again due to its shockingly close outcome, and after their loss to Tufts, Williams looks like a beatable opponent. While they barely knocked off Colby, they rallied from a 17-0 deficit, therefore dominating the second half of the game. With Kenny Gray moving up in the NESCAC QB ranks, and with a solid receiving core in Christian Donahoe and Joe Schmidt, they have a formidable enough offense to stick with the Ephs.
A relatively surprising loss to Tufts leaves Williams looking for a win. They have two losses on the year and need even more help than Wesleyan to share the ‘Cac crown. They do not control their own fate in any way even if they win out, and face a sneaky Hamilton team this Saturday. Without any production from rising RB star Rashad Morrison, leaving him as a question for Saturday’s game, Bobby Maimaron and company will need to find other ways to outscore the Continentals. Frank Stola and Adam Regensburg are Maimaron’s best offensive weapons, with Regensburg really coming on strongly as a WR, moving away from his defensive role. Kyle Horihan had a breakout defensive game against Tufts, leading the squad in tackles with 11 and an INT, and he should look to replicate that performance against an inconsistent Hamilton team. Despite their recent loss, Williams hasn’t lost a game by more than one possession and has the offense to outlast Hamilton regardless of how Gray and Donahoe play.
We’re still sorting through the wreckage of Williams’ comeback, last-second, upset win in Middlebury last Saturday, and I mean that both in a “how does it affect the league” sense and a “how does Pete recover from it emotionally” sense. What we do know is this; two losses will not earn you any share of the league championship. Middlebury, and any other team hoping to earn that coveted co-title (as always, terrific to not have any playoffs to sort this out) will need to win out. For the Panthers, Cardinals and Mammoths, that means beating Trinity. I don’t see more than one team potentially doing that, so the biggest story the rest of the way will be who has the best shot. The title is, now more than ever, Trinity’s to lose.
Colby (0-5) @ Hamilton (1-4), Clinton, NY, 1:00 PM
Hamilton stuck their flag in the ground last week as the Best of the Bad Teams, demolishing Bowdoin 28-7. As always, it was the offense that carried the Continentals to this strong performance. They gained 448 total yards, including 208 on the ground. 158 of those yards came on the back of first year RB Mitch Bierman. Bierman is making a delayed push for Rookie of the Year (Non Williams-division,) with touchdowns in 2 of his last three games and this dominant performance. More promising for their future, however, was the strong play of the defense. They held Bowdoin to 275 total yards, only 60 of which came from Nate Richam, and totaled five sacks. This matchup with Colby is another choice matchup for the Continentals, who would love to get another win under their belts before they play Middlebury and Williams.
The good news is that Colby tied their season high in points last week. The bad news is that their season high in points is 7. They simply do not have any offensive players who scare anyone, and by the end of the first quarter their defense is too tired to make much of a difference. If the offense could sustain some drives and give the defense a break, defensive back Don Vivian ’18 is a menace to quarterback who could give turnover-prone Kenny Gray ’20 fits. Hamilton’s offense might not allow this to happen, however.
I can’t go quite as far as calling this a “trap game” for the Panthers, but it is important. Middlebury suffered one of the most demoralizing losses possible last weekend; the feeling at Alumni Field as Williams celebrated reminded me of when _________ died in Game of Thrones (no spoilers here.) And next weekend, Trinity looms. Middlebury not only needs to win this game (which they will,) they need to dominate and carry momentum into the game that may well decide the season. It would help if Jared Lebowitz ’18 could get his full compliment of weapons. Although he still played well against Williams (304 yards, three touchdowns,) by the end of the game Williams had figured out how to stop Maxwell Rye ’20, Frank Cosolito ’20 and Jimmy Martinez ’19. With star receiver Conrado Banky ’19 out with an injury, Williams was able to eventually key in on the receivers and get stops.
Brendan Costa ’21 ran for 170 yards against Wesleyan, and will look to do the same against Middlebury.
Another thing Middlebury should take this game to work on is rush defense. Bates got the moral victory trophy last weekend in their 41-23 loss to Wesleyan. This was by far their best performance of the season, and the reason for this is that they discovered an offensive identity. The Bobcats put up an impossible 287 rushing yards, 170 of which came from QB Brendan Costa ’20. Bates biggest problem all season has been choosing a QB, and it seems that Costa has won the job. This is actually bad news for Middlebury, as it was an inability to contain Bobby Maimaron ’21 (15 rushes for 93 yards) that helped spell their doom against Williams. Middlebury should work on stopping the run this game, because they know it’s coming against the Bobcats, and even more so against Trinity in two weeks. I think Bates comes out and runs the down the Panthers throats at first, but Middlebury’s offense versus the Bates defense is a perfect storm for Middlebury.
That Bates rushing explosion came at the hands of Wesleyan’s defense, which has been pedestrian all season. They are the only top team to not have a defensive touchdown all season, and they still haven’t forced a fumble. This lack of dynamism from the defense hurt them against Bates. Mark Piccirillo ’18 had to throw them to victory, as he has done all season. But against Amherst on the road, this is not so easy a proposition. Amherst has the most dangerous running game in the league. Jack Hickey ’19 and Hasani Figueroa ’18 combine to average over 120 yards per game, and the team has a whole averages 195. If Wesleyan couldn’t stop Bates rushing attack, which is excellent but is not nearly as polished as Amherst’s, the Cardinals are in trouble. The key to this game will be the Wesleyan D-Line. Shane Kaminski ’18 is excellent at getting into the backfield (3 sacks,) and he will be busy this game.
Shane Kaminski ’18 will have to dominate for Wesleyan to win.
The other thing that Amherst has going for them is a stingy defense. They only give up 242 total yards per game, which is the best in the league. It is their rush defense that is most impressive, but in generally they do an excellent job breaking up opposing offenses. Andrew Yamin ’19 is the league leader in sacks with 5, and will be coming at Piccirillo all night. And their defensive backs, especially John Rak ’19, are all adept tacklers. Wesleyan’s offense is already not particularly diverse, and Amherst will excacerbate that problem. I see them forcing the turnover prone Piccirillo into trouble, and running the ball to victory.
Not a lot to say about this one. Bowdoin has given up the most yards per game in the league, and Trinity has gained the third most (477 and 438, respectively.) Max Chipouras ’18 might have 200 yards in this game. But, as Tufts found out, Trinity’s offense is not even the most dangerous part of their game. It’s the defense that has won them the two games they’ve played against upper level opponents. In their wins against Williams and Tufts, Trinity has only averaged 20 points and around 385 yards gained, well below their season averages. But in both those games, they have locked down excellent offenses, and the defense has made huge, return touchdown type plays to give them the win. Last week against Tufts it was CB Dominique Seagears ’18 who returned his second pick of the year for a 100 yard touchdown, which ended up being the difference in the game. Trinity won’t have to make any of those big plays this week to win, but the will anyway, and they definitely will next week against Middlebury.
Predicted Score: Trinity 40, Bowdoin 0
GAME OF THE WEEK: Tufts (3-2) @ Williams (4-1), Williamstown, MA, 1:30 PM
As Matt pointed out in the Power Rankings, this is a really fascinating game. Williams has catapulted themselves into title consideration with their upset of Middlebury, but they can easily fall back out of it with another loss. And Tufts just unseated Williams as the team that played the best against Trinity, but that still counts as a loss. If Williams loses, they will be effectively out of title contention, as Tufts already is. The Jumbos should love the chance to play spoiler.
The Tufts defense subscribed to a “Bend don’t Break” approach against Trinity. They gave up 402 total yards, including 165 to Max Chipouras. But they were able to stand strong in the red zone several times, only giving up two offensive touchdowns, including the game winner to Chipouras in the fourth quarter. Indeed, what really did the Bantams in was inconsistency on offense. QB Ryan McDonald ’19 threw three interceptions, one of which was returned for a 100 yard touchdown. He will need to control the ball better against the powerful Williams pass rush and secondary, which have combined to hold QB’s to the lowest YPG average in the league.
Williams will need to keep McDonald inside the pocket. Their pass rush eventually affected Lebowitz, but even he (not known as a burner) was able to hurt them on scrambles. That is McDonald’s game. He is adept at moving the chains with his legs, and on individual plays he gives Jack Dolan ’19 and his other receivers ample time to get open. This is how Tufts will have to win; McDonald will have to carry them. On the road against a confident Williams teams, however, I don’t think he will.
Fall is here, and along with the leaves changing color and pumpkin-flavored everything, it’s about that time where we can start separating the men from the boys in the world of NESCAC Men’s Soccer. With the majority of conference play in the books, these next couple weeks down the stretch are going to be fun to watch, as the battle for the top of the table in the NESCAC is wide-open. Let’s take a peak of what we have to look forward to this weekend.
Standings as of 10/15.
Trinity @ Middlebury
The Bantams are going to give the Panthers everything they have this weekend. That will mean Cody Savonen ’18 playing at his highest level, as he has all season. Savonen has 8 goals in 12 games, and just pulled ahead of Conn.’s Ben Manoogian in the golden boot race. Anchored by the versatile play of defender Alex Steel ’19, who leads the team in assists, Trinity could be due for a big win after a dropping a heartbreaker last week in OT to Bowdoin. For Middlebury, Drew Goulart ‘20 will supply the fire up top, as he’s tallied a team-high 3 goals and 2 assists. Goulart’s efforts will be aided by Jed Sass ’18, Daniel O’Grady ’19, and Ben Potter ’20. They’ve each chipped in a pair of goals this season, and will need to do more of the same on Saturday if Middlebury wants to show they belong in the top tier of the league.
Prediction: Middlebury 2 – Trinity 3
Tufts @ Bates
There’s no real reason to overthink this one here. Tufts stands at the top of the table, is a top ten team in the country, and has surrendered just one goal this season. If that doesn’t convince you, they are coming off of a 10-0 mid-week result (you read that correctly) against a 5-5-1 Mt. St. Vincent squad. Tufts seems to subscribe to the “Do Your Job” approach, as their 27 goals this season have come from 16 different players. They even platoon the goalkeeping duties, starting both Conner Meith ’19 and Bruce Johnson ’18 in conference games, a luxury of having two very talented keepers. The Bobcats will look towards Nate Merchant ’18 to continue his goal scoring ways, and with box-to-box playmaker Morgan Dewdney ’19 securing the midfield, the Bobcats could give the Jumbos some fits.
Prediction: Tufts 3 – Bates 1
Tufts scored ten goals in one game last weekend, which I understand is quite good.
Hamilton @ Bowdoin
The Continentals have pieced together a fair season overall, but 4 NESCAC losses is just simply too many. If they’re looking to throw a wrench into Bowdoin’s title hopes, forwards Jefri Schmidt ’20 and Aidan Wood ’20 will need to continue their goal scoring ways; the sophomore duo has accounted for 7 goals (Wood-4, Schmidt-3). If Hamilton can get on the board early, perhaps they’ll stand a chance to shock the Polar Bears, but that’s easier said than done. Bowdoin’s well-rounded team features leading goal-getter Ethan Ellsworth ’18, along with Moctar Niang ’19, who has continued to be the backbone of this strong Polar Bear squad. Wonderboy C.J. Masterson ‘19 has been in sensational form for the Polar Bears, having buried 3 goals in his last 4 games, enough to tie him for the team-lead with Ellsworth. Matty McColl ’19 has proven he’s a bona-fide star in this league after receiving all-conference honors as a sophomore last year, and with Sam Ward ’18 shoring up things up all over the pitch for Bowdoin, it’s hard to imagine Hamilton finding its way into the Polar Bears’ net.
Prediction: Hamilton 1 – Bowdoin 2
Amherst @ Colby
Amherst is who we thought they were. They reminded us all why they are the defending champions with a statement 1-0 result versus Tufts two weekends ago, and they still have a lot of soccer to play. Jimmy McMillian ‘20 has burst onto the scene for the Mammoths, with decisive goals against both Williams and Tufts to his name. Just another face in Amherst’s potent offense, McMillian is joined by Fikayo Ajayi ’19, Weller Hlinomaz ‘18, and even defender Cutler Coleman ’20, who have all slotted a pair of goals for the Mammoth’s this season, and figure to be a handful for Colby. Colby’s offense has shown a lot of life lately, in large part because of the dynamic wing play from pace-machine Kyle Douglas ‘19 and Jeff Rosenberg ’19. Pairing their explosiveness with a solid defense anchored by top guy Grady Jendzejec ’19, leading goal scorer Cam Clouse ’19, and goalkeeper Avery Gibson ’20, makes Colby a formidable opponent for the Mammoths. Gibson has been a brick wall for the Mules, surrendering just four goals this season. It’s easy to sleep on the Mules against a team like Amherst, but may not be wise
Prediction: Amherst 2 – Colby 1 (2OT)
Williams @ Wesleyan
Williams has lost just one game this season, but their knack for tying has
Like Kyle Brady ’20 here, Williams is in the middle of the league standings.
them firmly marooned in the middle of the table. Saturday’s result in Middletown needs to bring Williams all three points, and should, as Tobias Muellers ’18 and his cronies stick to their game plan and keep the Cardinals out of Bobby Schneiderman’s ’18 net. It’s no secret that the Eph’s defense is their strength, having conceded just 4 goals this year. It’s also safe to bank on Wesleyan’s defense showing up, lead by Teddy Lyons ’19, but if the Cardinals are going to pull this one out, Komar Martinez-Paiz ’19 will need to be in top form. Wesleyan’s gotten a lot of contributions from a lot of guys, but Martinez-Paiz has the talent to bring this team out of the trenches.
The marquee game of the season thus far is in Amherst, as Middlebury travels to the Mammoths in a game that starts the process of deciding the league champion. Amherst and Middlebury are the two teams with the best chance of supplanting Trinity, but staying undefeated will be crucial in that noble quest. Check out Colby’s breakdown of that game here. Other than that game this week is pretty pedestrian, with mostly lower tier teams taking on better opponents. It will be interesting to see if Williams can build off their performance against Trinity last weekend, or if they are let down after a tough loss. And Trinity is worth watching as well, to see if their offense can rebound against a Hamilton team that can be sneaky-dangerous (ask Tufts.)
As their Twitter page is very fond of pointing out, Wesleyan has one of the most potent passing offenses in the country thus far. However, they are not built to be a high volume aerial attack like, say, Middlebury is. Mark Piccirillo ‘18 doesn’t have the bevy of receiving weapons that Lebowitz does, nor is he as deadly accurate, as shown by his two picks against Hamilton. This is why it was so encouraging to see the Cardinal rushing attack get going in a big way against the Continentals. Sophomore Dario Highsmith ‘20 had the breakout game we’ve been waiting for, rushing for 95 yards and two touchdowns on just 15 carries. Wesleyan is at their best when their offense is multi-faceted, and after a one-dimensional first three weeks, they’re finally figuring it out. Look for them to continue to establish the run in a mismatch against Colby.
Dario Highsmith ’20 might be making a star turn before our very eyes.
Speaking of the Mules, their offense has continued to be anemic, putting too much pressure on an actually fairly good defense. QB Jack O’ Brian ‘21 has not thrown a pick since becoming the starter, but he also has completed just around 50% of his passes and really struggles throwing it downfield. The passing game can’t keep the ball on the field well enough to run it with Jake Schwern ’19, an underrated back who is averaging 4.5 yards per carry. Colby will try to run the ball on the Cardinals, but they really need to get some sort of threatening passing attack going. Unfortunately, Wesleyan is not a team offenses get “well” against.
Predicted Score: Wesleyan 31, Colby 9
Bates (0-3) @ Williams (2-1), 1:00 PM, Williamstown, MA
At the beginning of the season, we would have thought this game would be close, as these two teams would be battling it out for the “Best of the Rest” spot that we’ve written about in the past. But with Williams’ shocking improvement and Bates’ equally shocking struggles, it now looks like it could be a blowout. But, it also might not be. This is a very important game for both teams. Williams has impressed the league with their terrific defensive performance against Trinity. They had two sacks, a category in which they sit a second in the league, and nine tackles for loss in a pressure-filled performance that helped hold Max Chipouras ’19 to his worst performance on the season (just 2.8 yards per carry.) Unfortunately for them, Trinity’s defense was just as good, forcing the young Williams offense into four turnovers. Williams brought a lot of passion in that game, and they can’t afford to take a break against the Bobcats if they want to keep a legit chance at finishing in the top four (which I think they have.) The offense should rebound against a porous Bates defense, but the youth factor might make it harder to come back from a frustrating loss last weekend
Brendan Costa ’21 is the latest on the carousel of Bates starting QB’s.
Luckily for the Williams offense, Bates has made pretty much every team they play look like the ‘07 Patriots. To be fair, they have played three of the best offenses in the league (Trinity, Amherst and Tufts.) And also to be fair, their own offense has struggled so much that their defense can’t get a break. The Bobcats are on their their third QB of the year in Brendan Costa ‘21, and he looked impressive on the ground against Tufts (91 yards and a TD.) But he still completed only 42% of his passes. Even if Williams’ offense isn’t as dominant as the others Bates has faced, their defense should be enough to get them the win.
Predicted Score: Williams 24, Bates 10
Hamilton (0-3) @ Trinity (3-0), 1:00 PM, Hartford, CT
Trinity had some weaknesses exposed last weekend against Williams, namely on the offensive line and in the receiving game. Sonny Puzzo ‘18 and Max Chipouras ‘19 might be the best at their positions in the league, but Trinity doesn’t have a stud receiver. Koby Schafer ’20 is a great player, but he’d be better suited as a second option behind a Mike Breuler ’18 or a Conrado Banky ’19. This puts more pressure on Puzzo to make perfect throws, and on Chipouras to set up the offense in good spots. Therefore, if either of them are struggling, Trinity’s offense can sputter. And the way to make them struggle is to pack the box and stop Chipouras. Williams did that very effectively until a fourth quarter turnover gave the Bantams excellent field position. That’s when Puzzo ended the game with a TD strike to Schafer, keeping Trinity from suffering a huge upset. Also, it should be noted that Trinity’s defense still looked impenetrable despite finally giving up points. They dominated the Ephs inexperienced attack, with LB and Player of the Week Carty Campbell ’18 returning an interception 34 yards. They should to the same to Hamilton.
Hamilton has definitely seen the game plan that Williams used to limit Trinity. However, they probably do not have the personnel to repeat it. They have two solid linebackers in Cole Burchill ’19 and Tyler Hudson ’19, but neither of them are intimidating backfield presence, preferring to work in the secondary. And their D-Line has been roasted all season to the tune of 204 rushing yards per game (!!) Add in another inexperienced offense (despite a bevy of weapons that might make Puzzo fairly jealous) and Trinity should get back on their blowout grind this week.
Predicted Score: Trinity 42, Hamilton 6
Bowdoin (0-3) @ Tufts (2-1), 1:30 PM, Medford, MA
One of the most versatile offenses in the league takes on the worst defense in the league. Not exactly a recipe for a tight game. Tufts can beat you in a lot of different ways on the offensive end, but they all start with QB Ryan McDonald ‘19. McDonald has had a couple huge passing games (and one very bad one against Wesleyan,) and has six touchdowns and two interceptions on the year. But his greatest weapons is his legs. He has 295 yards and two touchdowns on 5.1 yards per carry. He does have an unfortunate fumbling habit (3 on the year) but he is undoubtedly one of the deadliest offensive forces in the league, and has been chiefly responsible for Tufts’s offense thriving even without Chance Brady.
Ryan McDonald ’19 is the key to Tufts’ offense.
Bowdoin’s defense is allowing an incomprehensible 477 yards per game this season. They seem to have found some modicum of consistency at QB in Griff Stalcup ‘21, but they simply cannot stay in games long enough for him to really get into a rhythm. If they could find some way to disrupt McDonald’s throwing, Tufts RB Dom Borelli ‘19 is battling an injury and may not play, limiting their rushing attack. They could play contain on McDonald and force him to make downfield throws. However, I don’t see their secondary being good enough to stop those throws even if they do that.
As we move into the fourth weekend of NESCAC play, the teams start to recognize the significance of each game. There is room to rise, but even more room to fall. Here are my thoughts about the upcoming games, most of which have potential playoff significance.
Standings as of 9/28 (Courtesy of NESCAC.com)
Colby (3-3-1, 1-2-1) at Middlebury (2-2-0, 5-2-0)
Statistically up to this point, the Mules and the Panthers boast similar figures. They each have a positive goals to goals against ratio and sit in the middle of the pack in the conference standings, respectively. Middlebury, on one hand, opened up ‘Cac play with a tough draw against Conn., Amherst, and Bowdoin; all of whom look to be formidable opponents in the first half of this season. The Panthers, at times, have shown that they can muster up tenacious play, as exhibited against Amherst, but their defeats against the Camels and the Polar Bears leaves definite questions about their ability to find success in the future. Middlebury currently relies on a balanced attack led by Drew Goulart ’20 and Daniel O’Grady ’19, who are able to both score and dish out an assist when called upon. Their backs Peter Davis ’19 and Aidan Robinson ’20 continue to help out senior keeper Jeremy Yeager ’18; all three will need to maintain their focus against a Mules team that has struggled to manufacture to this point.
Speaking of the Mules, this Colby team has surprised followers and continues to battle against intimidating competition. They took the defending national champion Jumbos into OT, tied the current conference leading Camels, and shutout Trinity in a decisive 2-0 victory. That being said, that amounts to only one victory, and in this league, you need points to be successful. Yes, they have faced very tough competition (their other game was a 1-0 loss to 4th-in-conference Williams), so they should not hit the panic button just quite yet. I expect this game will be a closely contested match all the way through. Asa Berolzheimer ’20 and Jansen Aoyama ’19 lead this Mules offense, and will look to get on the other end of a Kyle Douglas ’19 pass (Douglas leads team with 3 assists). At the end of it all, the result from this match will help paint a much clearer picture of each team’s capabilities.
Prediction: Colby 1 – Middlebury 2
Wesleyan (1-2-0) at Hamilton (5-2-0)
The struggle for the Cardinals up to this point has been maintaining their great level of play against out-of-conference teams in their NESCAC matches. They have shown they have the talent and the pieces needed to develop a quality season, but they need to show more flair and play with less hesitancy. In their two conference losses, they failed to score a goal against both Bowdoin and Tufts. Only against Bates were they able to net 4, but this is coming against a Bobcats squad that is less than stellar defensively. The Cardinals depend on recent conference Player of the Week (Harold and) Komar Martinez-Paiz ’19 to preserve their inconsistent offense. Additionally, the team has a constantly reliable backfield composed of Teddy Lyons ’19, Nick Jackson ’18, and keeper Brian Harnett ’18. Wesleyan cannot keep relying on their defense to win these games, as they can only do so much work before the opposing pressure breaks through.
Wesleyan will need to attack more on offense if they want to win this weekend. (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics)
Hamilton, similarly, comes into this game looking to turn their season around. The Continentals have definitely not given their best performances, as they suffered stinging losses to Bates, Middlebury, and Conn. College. The main focus for Hamilton this weekend will be their offense, as they have scored only two goals in their four conference games. They need their strikers Jefri Schmidt ’20 and Matt Casadei ’19 to tally up some points against the Cardinals, but that gets a lot harder when looking at the strength of the Wesleyan defense. Playing at home, the Continentals look to give their fans something to cheer about as each team fights to jump up the conference table.
Prediction: Wesleyan 3 – Hamilton 1
Trinity (0-5-0, 1-6-0) at Bates (1-1-1, 3-1-1)
The Bantams head up to Lewiston this upcoming Saturday as both teams seek to redirect the path of their seasons. For Trinity, they simply need to find a way to score in conference games. They have netted only 1 goal in five conference games (just taaaap it in). In those five games, they have also conceded 9 goals, which must seem like a giant mountain to climb over every time they give up a goal considering they cannot really find a way to score. The Bantams have managed to score out of conference, placing 7 goals in the back of the net in seven non-conference games, so they have shown they have the ability to score. Hoping to tally some goals this weekend for Trinity is Bantams points leader Cody Savonen ’18, who has scored half of the team’s goals this season.
Defensively, Trinity will need Henry Belt ’21 and Mateo Zabala ’18 to be on top of their game to thwart the Bobcats. Hosting the Bantams this weekend is Bates, who, unlike its opponent, maintains a solid goals to goals against ratio. The Bobcats have scored 5 goals and let up 6 in conference. I would not necessarily say that these are favorable numbers, but the goals-for stat shows some merit when comparing it to the Bantams’. Leading the charge for Bates is senior Nate Merchant ’18, who has scored 5 of the team’s eleven goals for the season. He will be backed by senior Max Watson, sophomore Julien Williamson, and juniors Sam Huebschmann ’19 and Robbie Montanaro ’19. I have got to give the edge to this Bates squad, as they have shown they can manufacture goals in the heat of conference competition.
Prediction: Trinity 0 – Bates 2
Connecticut College (3-0-2, 6-0-2) at Williams (2-1-2, 4-1-2)
As the current leaders of the conference, Conn must continue to prove their worth. The Camels have a very young roster, which will get only better the more they play together. Freshman Liam Noonan ’21 and junior Ben Manoogian ’19 lead this Conn. offense, an attack that is currently averaging close to 3 goals per game; however, this statistic decreases to just over 1 goal per game against conference opponents. The Camel defense has been extremely solid, averaging 0.59 goals against per game, which is easy to believe considering they have stalwart and lone starting-senior Nate Summers ’18 defending for the team. Conn. College’s only real test up to this point has been the Tufts Jumbos, which ended in a 0-0 draw.
Williams will be looking to place the first loss in the Camel’s season as they play host this weekend. The Ephs crew has enjoyed quite a lot of success so far in their campaign, with their only stint coming from a loss at Bowdoin. Despite their adequate offensive numbers, they truly excel on the defensive side of the ball. Senior Tobias Muellers ‘18 and Bobby Schneiderman ‘18 have been locking down offenses throughout the 2017 season. The Ephs boast 0.54 goals against per game, and will hope to shutdown this pesky Camels attack. Look for this matchup to be closely contested until the final whistle.
Prediction: Conn. College 2 – Williams 1
GAME OF THE WEEK: Tufts (3-0-1, 6-0-1) at Amherst (1-1-1, 2-1-1)
If you looked at this matchup a year ago, or even at the beginning of this season for that matter, it would have appeared to be one of the best collegiate games all year in Division III. However, Amherst has gotten off to a slow start, at least to their typical standards. They have shown that they can compete with the best, (see: their victory against Bowdoin)St but they have also shown that they can let the game get away from them, as seen when they hosted and lost to Middlebury. The Mammoths need a turning point to their season, a jolt that can propel them atop the ‘Cac standings. This game is their chance. Luckily for Amherst, the team has shown that they do not have to rely on a single player to score goals. In fact, 7 Mammoths have found the back of the net this season for Amherst, but they have scored only 2 goals in 3 three conference games. Their defense has been very trustworthy, with help from Sean Fitzgerald ’19, Cutler Coleman ’20, and freshman Bryce Johnson ’21. Together, this backline averages less than half a goal per game. Considering that this team is going up against the penetrating Jumbo offense, the defense will need to stick together.
Tufts has been a dominant unit this year, and will hope to continue that against Amherst. (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)
The Jumbos, on the other side of the ticket, have been relatively unstoppable. They have not lost a game to this point and, more impressively, have not even given up a goal. Their defense has yet to falter thanks to seniors Conor Coleman ’18 and Matt Zinner ‘18, and junior Sterling Weatherbie ’19 (fantastic name). These three must continue their focus if they want their clean sheets to keep rolling in. Despite the Mammoths’ struggles to this point, I expect them to unnerve Tufts with their home field advantage, and actually sneak one past that unyielding Tufts defense.
This week features a slate of games that can be charitably described as “uneven.” That’s a nice way of saying that it features games where the better teams in the league play the worse teams in the league. And having learned our lesson last week picking Hamilton over Amherst, we’re not seeing any magic happening here. But there is good news. With these lopsided games happening earlier in the season, the end of the year should feature more games between strong teams. But we can’t get there without going here first.
Tufts (1-1) @ Bates (0-2), Lewiston, ME, 1:00 PM
The Jumbos have been the team to watch if you’re looking for close games this season. This has been mostly due to their strong schedule (an improved Hamilton team in Week One and then Wesleyan last week) but has also been due to their inability to close out games. Their defense allowed Hamilton to continuously tie up the game before the offense won it in OT, and then QB Ryan McDonald turned the ball over twice to help along Wesleyan’s comeback. Indeed, without multi-purpose weapon Jack Dolan ‘19, who had an 85 yard punt return touchdown to keep Tufts in it, the game wouldn’t even have been close. Tufts is in need of a blowout after two hard fought games, but that won’t happen if they don’t execute. This is a golden chance for the Jumbos to get things fully in order for a championship run.
Tufts’ defense is rounding into shape, but to beat Trinity (the ultimate goal for any NESCAC team) they have to get even better.
Bates, on the other hand, isn’t in a position to have a preferred kind of win. They have had a very difficult start to the season, highlighted by a 51-0 drubbing at the hands of Trinity that wasn’t even that close. Obviously not much has gone right for Bates this season, but offense has been the biggest issue. QB Sandy Plashkes ‘18 has been benched for Matt Golden, signifying that Bates is ready to go in a new direction. Left to their own devices, Bates would want to be a run-based offense, and when they’ve gotten to that style it has been successful. Peter Boyer and Kyle Flaherty have run the ball with authority, combining for 73 yards a game. But with no consistent QB play, the offense can’t stay on the field long enough to give them a chance to score. Tufts’ defense is still coming together, so Bates has the potential to improve a bit this game. At this point, that should be their goal.
Projected Score: Tufts 31, Bates 10
Wesleyan (1-1) @ Hamilton (0-2), Clinton, NY, 1:00 PM
After an inspired performance in Week One, Hamilton fell back to Earth in a big way last weekend, making several trigger happy “experts” (namely Colby and I) look pretty foolish in the process. Amherst smoked Hamilton 36-6, and while the dynamic Kenny Gray-Joe Schmidt duo ended up with respectable totals (245 yards, one TD for Gray, 54 yards for Schmidt,) most of that was in garbage time. Even so, it was Hamilton’s run defense that looked worst against the Mammoths. Amherst tallied over 250 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. Of course, Amherst has arguably the best ground game in the league, but if Hamilton wants to play with the big boys they have to be ready for that.
Mike Breuler ’18 (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics)
Wesleyan had a run-heavy identity last season, but haven’t been able to get to it this year. This is partially due to the graduation of Gerald Hawkins and Devin Carillo, but it is also because they have gotten down big early in both of their games. This has called QB Mark Piccirillo ‘18 into action, as he has thrown the Cardinals back into both of their games. The Cardinals have a strong and experienced offensive line, as evidenced by Piccirillo’s success in finding Mike Breuler ‘18 deep. They could run behind that line as well, if sophomore Dario Highsmith ‘20 gets more carries. He should in this game, as Hamilton doesn’t have an answer for Breuler (no one does.) Expect the Cardinals to get up early this time, but it may just tighten up at the end if Gray can get going.
The almighty Schedulers have rewarded Middlebury’s difficult Week One matchup with Wesleyan with back to back games against Bowdoin and Colby. The Panthers absolutely smacked Bowdoin in Week Two, with Jared Lebowitz ‘18 putting up one of the most efficient games of his storied career. Lebowitz wen 20-26 for over 300 yards and four touchdowns, with no turnovers. That last stat is the most important one for him, as the only blemish on his sterling resume is a tendency to give up the football when under pressure. But the Panther O-Line, led by junior stud Andrew Rogan ‘19, gets better every week, and Lebowitz has reaped the rewards. He has also seamlessly worked in a large group of new receivers, who have filled in admirably as we wait for Conrado Banky’s explosion. All four of his touchdown throws were to different receivers last week, including new names like Maxim Bochman ‘20 and Jimmy Connell ‘21. Add in the emergence of Matt Cardew ‘20 as a solid running back option, and the Panthers look like the best offense in the league, maybe even including Trinity.
Colby, like Bates, has had a potentially dangerous running game squelched by inconsistency at quarterback. Jake Schwern ‘19 has run very well at times for the Mules, averaging 73 yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry. But he hasn’t gotten into the end zone yet, as Colby simply can’t sustain long drives. Pre-season starting QB Christian Sparacio ‘18 has been replaced by sophomore Jack O’Brian ‘20, who looked okay last week against Williams. Colby scored their first points of the year in that game. Unfortunately, Middlebury’s offense is firing right now, so any improvement on Colby’s end will probably fall flat, as Middlebury should dominate time of possession (as well as every other stat.)
Another probable blowout this week features the Polar Bears traveling to Amherst to take on the Mammoths. As you’ve gathered from the earlier games, these two teams enter the game on vastly different trajectories. Amherst comes off a terrific 36-6 drubbing of Hamilton in which their running game and defense looked unbeatable. However, there is a question hanging over the game for the Mammoths; who is the quarterback. They got Reece Foy ‘18 back in Week Two after he missed the entire 2016 season with an injury. And Foy made an impact, rushing for a seven yard score. This is a good sign, as the thing that made him a POY candidate before the injury was his dual threat ability. But his backup Ollie Eberth ‘20 has filled in admirably in his absence, completing 64% of his passes with four touchdowns. Eberth is the QB of the future, and it makes sense to give him work in mismatches like this, but when Amherst meets the other title contenders, they will lick their chops at facing such an inexperienced QB (particularly one named “Ollie.”) I would think as soon as Foy is ready, he gets the ball back. But we’ll have to wait till Saturday to see.
Bowdoin also has quarterback issues, but their defense and running game aren’t good enough to make up for them. After only completing 42.9% of his passes, Noah Nelson ‘18 was replaced by Griff Stalcup ‘21, who has fared slightly better (54%.) They have also shown a strong offensive line and running attack, averaging 152.5 yards per game, good for fourth in the league. They have also scored all four times they’ve been in the red zone. These are stats that point towards an offense that has potential to control the game through posession if the defense could get a stop. Which so far, they haven’t. The Polar Bears allow 480 yards per game and 35 points, which doesn’t give a rush heavy offense much of a chance. Amherst has QB questions, but they simply beat Bowdoin at their own game.
Predicted Score: Amherst 27, Bowdoin 10
GAME OF THE WEEK: Williams (2-0) @ Trinity (2-0), Hartford, CT, 1:30 PM
At the beginning of the season, Williams versus Trinity did not have the ring of a Game of the Week. And frankly, to me it still somewhat doesn’t. To spoil my prediction, I don’t see a fairy tale ending for this game, but the very fact that we can discuss Williams in the same breath as Trinity like this is a tremendous achievement of which the whole Williams organization should be proud. And furthermore, Williams might not be the shark bait that other teams have been for Trinity so far this year.
Trinity ran and threw all over Bates last weekend, and is looking to do the same to Williams.
Most NESCAC fans know where Trinity is heading into this game.They have outscored their opponents (Colby and Bates) 86-0 this season, outgained them 901-374 and also, oh yeah, haven’t allowed a point all season. Sonny Puzzo ‘18 and Max Chipouras ‘19 have been as good as expected, but receiver Koby Schofer ‘20 has been a revelation thus far. He’s averaged 85 yards per game, and has stepped in very well for a team that lost several receiving weapons in the offseason. Defensively, Trinity doesn’t have any standouts statistically, but honestly this is mostly because they haven’t had to play in the fourth quarter yet this season. The whole unit has destroyed offensive lines so far this season, and has given the offense ample scoring chances with great field position. Long story short, Trinity is good.
Connor Harris ’18 (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)
But, potentially, so is Williams? Earlier this week we leveled the crticism at the Ephs that they have played two lower caliber teams (Bowdoin and Colby) in the first two weeks, and so therfore their fast start is slightly exaggerated. But as several enterprising readers pointed out, that is unfair for two reasons. Firstly, Williams was supposed to BE one of those teams, so beating them handily is still impressive. And secondly, Trinity has also played weak teams thus far. This is not to say that Trinity isn’t as good as they look, but rather that Williams is as good as they appear. They have legitimate weapons in the passing game, thanks largely to a fantastic first year class. QB Bobby Maimeron ‘21 and WR’s Frank Stola ‘21 and Justin Nelson ‘21 have given the Ephs the all important vertical threat in the run-n’-gun NESCAC. But their offense is multidimensional. Senior back Connor Harris ‘18 has been one of the most underrated players so far this season. Harris has 162 yards in two games on 5.6 yards per carry, as well as two touchdowns. Harris is crucial to the WIlliams offense, as he provides a dynamic threat on the ground and opens up play action routes for Maimeron.
Jameson DeMarco ’18 (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)
And furthermore, despite all of these offensive weapons, Williamsgreatest asset this year has been defensive; their dominant pass rush. Williams has the most sacks in the league, 10, thanks largely to Jameson DeMarco ‘19, who leads the league with 3.5. So to recap, Williams has a good offense and dominant defense that has been untested against upper level teams. Just like Trinity. Hmmm….
Of course, I jest. Trinity will win this game handily. But there will be nothing better for all of thse young Ephs than a test against one of the best teams NESCAC has seen this decade. Williams is playing for next year, and it’s serving them very well this year. Watch out for the Ephs, not in this game, but down the line.
