For the first time ever, the Nothing But NESCAC will be crowning a baseball champion virtually. With no NESCAC baseball being played in 2020, everyone across the league is left thinking that this could have been their year. Fortunately, we have a way to bring some sort of satisfaction to those who are feeling this lack of closure. We’ve decided to hold the 2020 Nothing But NESCAC baseball tournament online via MLB the Show 20. For those of you who don’t know, MLB the Show has been the best baseball video game franchise on the market ever since Backyard Baseball stopped releasing new editions. This will allow us to have the most realistic tournament that we can possibly have, played over the weekend when the actual NESCAC baseball tournament was supposed to have been played. Each of the 10 NESCAC baseball teams have selected one member of their program to represent them for a chance to bring home the only baseball championship trophy that will be handed out this year.
The tournament format looks like this: -NESCAC East and NESCAC West will remain separate and each team will play everyone else in their division on Friday, May 8th and Saturday, May 9th to determine seeding and eliminate the 5th place team on each side -Remaining teams will be seeded 1 through 4 on each side based on pool play record with tiebreakers being head-to-head results followed by overall run differential (and a coin flip if still tied) -Bracket play will take place on Sunday, May 10th -The bracket will have two sides: on one side the top seed in the East will face the fourth seed in the West, while the second seed in the West will take on the third seed in the East…the other side of the bracket will look identical except the seeds will be flipped (i.e. 1 West vs 4 East, 2 East vs 3 West) -We plan to stream the bracket play games online so that anyone can tune in and follow what’s going on
Not only will this tournament let us recognize a champion for the season, but it is also intended to provide a platform for us to give as much help as we can to those who are most affected by COVID-19. We’ve started our own fundraising page through GlobalGiving (link below) to help get masks, ventilators, and other lifesaving medical supplies to hospitals and clinics, deliver essential items to struggling families and older individuals in quarantined cities and refugee camps, feed children that rely on school meals as their only source of nutrition, and much more.
Obviously we all would have liked to play baseball as usual this year (take it from me, a senior who lost his final season), but something much bigger than us is going on right now. The NESCAC is a family and I trust that our family understands the type of difference that we can make. If you like the idea of this tournament or if you’ve enjoyed our content here at NbN, please consider donating even just a few dollars because – as cliché as it sounds – every bit really does count.
This was a bit of a different year for NESCAC Basketball with no one team looking dominant and the conference “only” getting three teams into the NCAA Tournament. Although they may not have won the NESCAC, it’s hard to argue that anyone else had a better season start to finish than the Mules. Colby raced off to an 18-0 start behind the excellent play of Sam Jefferson ’20 who looked like he might run away with the Player of the Year Award before he went down with an ankle injury in their game against Hamilton. This team only features one frontcourt player, so their strategy is basically to speed the game up to get out in transition and shoot a lot of three pointers. This has mostly worked for them, particularly since their lone big man Dean Weiner ’20 has really elevated his play recently, matching up against some of the conference’s elite bigs. Colby has never appeared in the NCAA Tournament, so we’re about to find out if they’re truly ready for the biggest spotlight.
How They Got Here
Sam Jefferson ’20 (Courtesy of Colby Athletics)
As I just mentioned, the Mules got off to a blazing hot start at 18-0 and climbing as high as 5th in the national rankings. Losses to Tufts and Amherst late in the year dropped them to 2nd in the NESCAC by the end of the regular season, earning them a home game against 7th-seeded Bates in the quarterfinals. This game became an instant classic as the Bobcats failed to seal the win late and big shots by Alex Dorion ’20, Will King ’23, and Matt Hanna ’21 allowed Colby to walk away victorious. They followed this up with yet another thrilling matchup with Amherst, coming from behind to eke out a 4-point win to advance to their first NESCAC Championship. Although they ended up on the wrong side of yet another ridiculously exciting, double overtime contest against Tufts, the committee awarded their efforts with an at-large bid and a trip to Hoboken for the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament.
How They Lose
I feel like I’ve been saying it all year, but the recipe for a Colby defeat doesn’t seem that complicated. They only have one true big man and they rely heavily on the three-ball, so you’d think that a team with a bit of size who slows the game down would be able to put the Mules to rest. That said, this strategy hasn’t exactly worked for everyone who’s tried it. Amherst employed this very technique in the semifinals but Colby was able to grind out a low-scoring win in come-from-behind fashion. The Mules also use about 7-8 guys per game and Coach Strahorn really rides his starters, so I can envision fatigue catching up to them a bit, particularly for Dean Weiner ’20 since he’ll likely be asked to play more minutes than he’s used to in order to matchup with opposing big men. These all seem like very likely ways for Colby to lose, but it really hasn’t been that easy this year. Only two teams all season have been able to defeat the Mules, so I don’t anticipate them being an easy matchup for whoever they go up against.
The Competition
Christopher Newport (21-6, 9-1, at-large bid)
(Courtesy of CNU Athletics)
The Captains earned at at-large bid out of the Capital Athletic Conference where they were pretty dominant all year. Their only conference losses were at the hands of York College, once in the regular season and once in the conference championship. York is also an excellent team that has a chance to make a run in the tournament, so these aren’t particularly bad losses. Their non-conference schedule was also pretty loaded, as all but one of their losses came to teams that are also in the NCAA Tournament. The scoring duties are led by junior Jason Aigner ’21 who’s averaging 13.9 points per game while shooting over 45% from beyond the arc. He’s aided by senior forward Dalon McHugh II ’20, who’s putting up 12.3 points and hauling in nearly 8 rebounds per game. CNU has some guys with size who could give Colby trouble, but they aren’t regular members of the rotation so it’ll be interesting to see if they stick with what they’ve been doing or if they decide to overpower the Mules with some size off the bench. Either way I think this will be a good matchup, but I don’t see Colby’s season ending tonight.
Writer’s Pick: Colby 86 – Christopher Newport 80
The Other Two
Stevens (23-4, 12-2, MAC Freedom Champions)
(Courtesy of Stevens Athletics)
Stevens is somewhat of an enigma given that they come from a relatively weak region, but there’s no doubt that this team can play. They blew threw the MAC Freedom Tournament, winning the title game in convincing fashion en route to becoming a host for the first two rounds of NCAAs. This team has some experience playing against the nation’s best, as they defeated #6 Johns Hopkins early in the year and battled to close defeats against #1 Swarthmore and #21 Middlebury as well. The Ducks are led by the trio of Spencer Cook ‘20, Alec DiPietrantonio ‘21, and Kevin Florio ‘20, each of whom average double digits in scoring. Cook shoots the three at a nearly 50% clip, so you can bet that teams will key in on him and make sure to always get a hand in his face. They’ve been tested before so you know they’ll be tough, but given that they haven’t played a particularly tough schedule since before the New Year, it’s hard to know exactly what we’ll see from them.
Nichols (20-8, 12-4, CCC Champions)
(Courtesy of Nichols Athletics)
The Bison are easily the weakest team in this region and I really don’t anticipate them getting past day one. They had a great run last season making it all the way to the Elite 8, but they lost quite a bit to graduation and really haven’t been the same team at all this year. They’ve got some experience with NESCAC teams as they took down Trinity and lost to both Tufts and Hamilton earlier this year, plus they earned a win early in the year over New England College who’s also an NCAA Tournament team. After finishing second in their conference during the regular season, Nichols defeated top-seeded Endicott in a thriller to earn the automatic bid into the tournament. DeAnte Bruton ’20 is as versatile a scorer as any, posting 22.3 points per game and big man Matt Morrow ’21 has been a beast this year, averaging a double double with 15.3 points and 11.3 rebounds per game. Jaekwon Spencer ’22 chips in 12.6 points per game of his own, but outside of these three guys there isn’t a ton of damage to be done. They have the pieces to make some games interesting, but this is a tough region and I don’t think Nichols has the fire power to consistently keep up with some of these other schools.
It is a testament to the NESCAC and its strength year after year that Middlebury was able to finish in 5th in the conference, lose in the first round of the conference tournament, and still be considered a no brainer to make the NCAA Tournament. On the back of a 15-0 out of conference record, Middlebury spent a good portion of the season in the Top 10 of the national polls and hovering at the top of the Northeast regional rankings. An electric offense led by two-time all-league junior guard Jack Farrell ’21 (16.9 PPG) and junior transfer forward Tommy Eastman ’21 (18.6 PPG in conference play) have shown that they can score with anyone in the country, but injuries and inconsistent play have kept them from reaching the heights that some thought they could reach.
But that is largely where the guarantees for Midd end. This will be the 3rd straight year the Panthers enter the Big Dance with two weeks off, courtesy of yet another quarterfinal exit. It’s hard to say whether or not this has affected them all that much. Last year they did lose in the first round, but it was to Nichols, an Elite 8 team, by just three points. The year before, they were bounced from the Sweet 16, nothing to be ashamed of. The success of this Middlebury season now hangs largely in part on their ability to recover and try and play their best basketball at the right time.
How They Got Here
Jack Farrell ’21 (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)
As I already touched on, Middlebury flew out of the gates to start the season, winning their first 15 games, including a road win over nationally ranked Springfield, before losing at Amherst in their NESCAC opener. Despite finishing the season with a 20-5 record, it has been a year of up and downs for Panther nation. An already thin bench was depleted even further with the preseason season injury to G Joey Leighton ’20, before they lost sophomore C Alex Sobel (11.4 PPG, 6.8 REB/G, 1.5 BLK/G) for undisclosed reasons just 12 games into the season. Despite the 15-0 start, there were shaky performances in a largely uncompetitive schedule—a 4-point win against Bridgewater St., close games against Wentworth and Johnson St., and escaping in a 1-point win against New England College. A 6-4 record and a quarterfinal exit in NESCAC play did not do much to inspire confidence heading into the tournament either. However, if you’re a Middlebury fan, you have to feel pretty good about your draw, but we’ll get to that in a second.
How They Lose
Middlebury can score with anyone, there is no denying that. But when the shots aren’t falling, which every team is prone to, they don’t always have the defensive consistency required to stay in the game. In their 5 losses, they have allowed opponents to score 88.4 points per game, including 100 to Trinity (not a noted NESCAC offensive powerhouse) in their NESCAC quarterfinal loss. Middlebury’s lack of size at the wing position and lack of true defensive centers is an issue that is not going to go away, so it is really on their guards to prevent opposing teams from penetrating and getting to the rim. Despite their lack of elite team defense, they do have a couple players who put up some nice defensive numbers. Jack Farrell (1.9) was second in the NESCAC in steals per game, while F Matt Folger ’20 was one of two players in the NESCAC to average more than a steal and a block per game. His 1.4 steals per game was 4th, and his 1.5 blocks was 5th. Getting those types of contributions from both would be a welcome sight for Panther fans.
The other deficiency for Middlebury is rebounding. Their -0.2 rebounding margin was 2nd to last in the NESCAC, another factor of their lack of size. There are certain things that you can’t fix on a whiteboard, especially when you start 3 6’0 guards. They are just going to really have to give championship effort on the glass, especially if they want to make a run into the second weekend and beyond.
The Competition
Westfield State (20-7, 10-2, MASCAC Champions)
(Courtesy of Westfield State Athletics)
The Owls announced their presence to the rest of the NESCAC very early in the season, pulling off a shock 68-67 upset of then #3 Amherst just before Thanksgiving on a Jauch Green Jr. ’20 layup with 3.7 seconds left. As the year went on, it proved to be not nearly as much of an upset as fans of the NESCAC might have expected. Westfield St. captured the regular season MASCAC honors with a 10-2 league record and then proved it was no fluke by winning the conference tournament as well. Unlike Middlebury, who is coming into the tournament on a two-game losing streak, the Owls are peaking at the right time, winners of 13 of their last 15. They are led by the senior duo of Green (18.4 PPG, 7.6 REB/G, 3.1 AST/G) and G Vawn Lord (19.7 PPG, 6.7 REB/G), both of whom were named to the MASCAC 1st-Team. The gameplan for this team is pretty simple—keep them off the glass, and don’t let them get to the line. They might just be the best rebounding team in the country: 1st in total rebounds, 6th in offensive rebounds, and 14th in defensive rebounds. As just mentioned, this is a huge weakness for Middlebury. The other thing Westfield St. does really well is get to the free throw line. They took more free throws than any other team in the country (775) and were 3rd in makes, with 501. It is not so much the points themselves that might be concerning, but the fact that Middlebury is already running a very short rotation, playing just 7 guys right now, with Junior F Ryan Cahill ’21 still questionable with a foot injury. Upon closer inspection, this could be a nervy game for Middlebury.
Coast Guard (14-13, 6-8, NEWMAC Champions)
(Courtesy of Coast Guard Athletics)
One of the tournament’s true Cinderella stories this year, the Coast Guard bears entered the NEWMAC tournament with a losing record at 11-13 and needing to play in the 4 vs. 5 play-in game to earn the right to make the semifinals. They came from 10 down to knock off last year’s conference champions Emerson 80-78, then traveled to top seeded Springfield and bested them 88-82, before coming roaring back from 25 down early in the second half to knock off WPI 89-86 in overtime. It was one of the strongest years in recent memory for the NEWMAC with Springfield, WPI, and Babson all winning 20 games and spending numerous weeks in the d3hoops.com Top 25, and all securing at-large bids to the NCAA tournament. But it was Coast Guard who punched their ticket first. The Bears are led by a senior trio in G Packy Witkowski (17.7), F Noah Baldez (13.4), and F Justin Kane (13.0), who combine to score 44.1 of their 83.6 points a game. Offense doesn’t seem to be an issue, as they averaged those near 84 points a game on 45/37/74 splits, rather it is on the other end of the court where they struggle—allowing 82.6 points per game on 45.8% shooting a game. Those numbers would rank last and second to last in the NESCAC, to put it into perspective. The reality with this team is that you can throw the stats out the window and forget about them. The slipper has clearly fit so far and their potential opponents just need to hope they run out of magic this weekend.
SUNY Brockport (24-3, 17-1, SUNYAC Champions)
(Courtesy of Brockport Athletics)
The hosts this weekend, the number 1 ranked team in the East region, and one of the hottest teams in the country are the Brockport St. Golden Eagles. Winners of 17 in a row, the winners of the SUNYAC haven’t lost since January 10th. They were every bit as dominant as it appeared, averaging 85.3 points per game on the season, and holding opponents to just 70.9. Brockport is led by its three All-SUNYAC recipients, first team Sophomore G Jahidi Wallace (14.1 PPG, 4.9 REB/G) and second team seniors Tyler Collins (12.4 PPG, 3.8 AST/G) and Justin Summers (15.5 PPG, 6.1 REB/G, 1.7 BLK/G), the latter of which probably would’ve been a first teamer and a player of the candidate if he didn’t miss 9 games in the middle of conference play. While those individual numbers might not jump off the charts, it is safe to say this team is greater than the sum of its parts. Brockport’s gaudy conference success was fueled in part by their 16.6 assists per game, which led the conference, and their opportunistic defense, their whopping 10.9 steals per game was 8th in the entire country. Additionally, they do a terrific job of guarding the three point line (29.3%, also 8th in the nation), and believe it or not—are arguably second best in the country at getting to the free throw line, behind Westfield St., 2nd in the country in attempts and 4th in the country in makes. (Sidenote—if Westfield St. upsets Midd and plays Brockport, not going to be the easiest game on the eyes). The biggest question mark with a team like Brockport is really just its strength of schedule, having played 18 of their 27 games in conference. They seem like the clear favorite to advance, however.
Everything Else
If you’re a Middlebury fan, it might almost be pointless to read and digest any of this preview. I know that’s not the best marketing ploy in the world, but the reality is that the team that is best equipped to beat Middlebury is Middlebury. When they are clicking on all cylinders, we can see why they were considered to be one of the best 5-10 teams in the country. The offensive talent—Farrell, Bosco, Eastman, Folger—is to die for, but the consistency issues, coupled with overreliance on an already thin rotation, has boom or bust written all over it. If Middlebury makes it out of this weekend, they only have to beat Tufts, a team they beat before, to reach Fort Wayne and the Elite 8. But all signs point to this team being just as likely to lose to Westfield St. as they are of cutting down any nets.
Tufts secured their first NESCAC Championship in program history this past weeked, surviving a grueling double-overtime game against Colby in what will surely go down as an instant classic. Despite leading by as many as seventeen points late in the first half, the Jumbos simply could not put away the feisty Mules; maintaining a nine-point advantage with just under eight minutes remaining in regulation, Tufts allowed the visitors to surge ahead on a 15-2 run, capped off by Sam Jefferson’s three-ball with 2:51 on the clock. With the Jumbos trailing by one with eleven ticks left, a missed layup by senior leader Eric Savage ‘20 seemed to signal a potential sour ending in the team’s journey to capture a NESCAC Championship on their own floor. However, Savage was given an opportunity to redeem himself after Matt Hanna ‘21 calmly knocked down two free throws to stretch Colby’s advantage to three with six seconds remaining. The decision made by Coach Damien Strahorn to not foul was quite puzzling (although it is easier to say this behind a keyboard and not in the heat of the moment), but it nevertheless came back to bite the Mules as Savage drained a triple to send the game to overtime. The teams traded leads back-and-forth during the first few minutes, and Savage once again came up big with another three-ball to knot the game at 83 with 52 seconds left. The Mules answered thanks to Will King’s layup, but it was the Jumbos who once again refused to quit; Savage’s missed jumper was followed up by Dylan Thoerner ‘23, who was fouled with virtually zeros on the game clock. In arguably the most intense atmosphere the rookie had experienced in his playing career to this date, Thoerner cooly sunk both free throws to force double overtime. In the final five minutes, big man Luke Rogers ‘21 gave the Jumbos the lead for good with a layup followed by a successful three-point play, and with a plethora of converted free throws down the stretch, the Tufts’ players, coaches and fans erupted with joy as the seconds ran down, knowing they had finally emerged victorious.
How they Got Here
Luke Rogers ’21 (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)
All roads to success for the Jumbos lead through the duo of Savage and Rogers, who averaged a combined 32.7 ppg during the regular season. The two compliment each other very well, as opposing teams are normally left with no choice but to provide help defense with whoever is guarding Rogers down low, allowing for extra driving lanes and an extended perimeter to shoot from for Savage and the rest of the Jumbos’ sharpshooters. The veteran leadership from Savage, the only senior on the Jumbos’ roster, is extremely impressive considering where the Jumbos are now compared to a season ago. Despite flashing glimpses of their potential such as their shocking upset against top-seeded Middlebury in the NESCAC Quarterfinals, the 2019 season saw Tufts finish just 12-14 with a 4-6 record in-conference. The maturation and focus that was required of this team in order to regularly compete at the highest level was met with open arms, and the reward is the team’s first trip to the NCAA Tournament since 2016.
While the offense certainly had its moments, the defense was key concerning Tufts’ successful path to securing a regional host. The Jumbos boast one of the stingiest defensive units in the conference, allowing opponents to shoot just 41% from the field. They don’t force a ton of turnovers (12.4 per game) but rather grind down opponents by keeping them outside the paint, leaving defenses frustrated after forcing contested shot after shot. And despite the lack of turnovers as a whole, steals have not been a problem to come by; all the guards have very active hands, constantly pressuring the ball-handlers and making life as uncomfortable as possible for the opposition.
How they Lose
The Jumbos certainly have flaws on both sides of the ball. On the offensive end, poor free-throw shooting has plagued this team all season long. Quite frankly, it is a minor miracle they lost just six games while shooting 64% from the line as a team. Amongst the nine members of the team who average twelve minutes or more during a contest, only three of them (Brennan Morris ‘21 – 84.5%, Tyler Aronson ‘22 – 83.1%, and Thoerner – 78.3%) are reliable from the charity stripe. The other six? 56.3%. I have mentioned this in the past, but Rogers in particular can be exploited for his poor shooting efforts (79-171 from the free throw line this season, good for 46.2%) late in games as teams begin to foul intentionally.
Another common factor that seems to reoccur when the Jumbos drop a contest is the number of fouls the team picks up. As good as the defensive unit is, Tufts leads the NESCAC in fouls committed by a considerable margin with nearly 21 fouls per game. This essentially means that not only will the respective opponent experience a bonus opportunity in each half of the contest, but (more than likely) they will eclipse ten fouls and get to the double bonus. As Tufts heads to the Big Dance, opposing teams with deeper rosters will look to use the Jumbos’ aggressiveness against them and draw contact in order to pile up both the fouls on Tufts and the free throw attempts. Being in a familiar environment, however, should be beneficial for the NESCAC Champions, who have lost just one game in front of their faithful supporters this calendar year.
**Speaking of faithful supporters, shame on Johns Hopkins for hosting a regional and barring fans from partaking in the event. At the very least, the University should have notified the NCAA about their stance regarding the coronavirus and public sporting events sooner, so that the next highest seed could host and this type of situation would not occur. Cowards, all of you.
The Competition
Western Connecticut St. (20-7, 12-4, Little East Conference Champions)
(Courtesy of LEC Athletics)
The champs out of the Little East Conference started out slow, losing three out of four conference games in early January; however, they caught fire and closed out the season winning ten of eleven, including seven in a row. While the offense is nothing out of this world, the Colonials boast an extremely deep roster – thirteen players average at least eight minutes a game. Three players average double figures, led by senior forward Fenton Bradley ‘20 (16.1 PPG, 6.3 REB/G). Ahmod Privott ‘22 (10.6 PPG), Jaheim Young ‘23 (10.3 PPG), and first-team all name selection Legend Johnson ‘21 (8.6 PPG) round out the top scoring threats for Western Connecticut St. In all honesty, the Jumbos should have no problem taking care of the Colonials: after all, Bradley is the team’s tallest player at 6’7’’, and even if he were to limit Rogers in some fashion, the Colonials’ supporting cast severely lacks the height and size to continuously bang down low. I expect a bit of nerves from the Jumbos to begin, but by the second half, things should start flowing. Give me the Jumbos by 15+.
Writer’s Pick:Tufts 78 – Western Connecticut 62
The Other Two:
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (23-4, 17-1, at-large bid)
(Courtesy of RPI Athletics)
If Tufts advances to the round of 32, Rensselaer looks like the odds-on favorite to be their next opponent. Prior to falling to Ithaca College, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute was previously the 24th-ranked team in the nation. After an 0-2 start to the season, RPI thoroughly dominated their schedule and only dropped two contests the rest of the way (both to Ithaca College). The tone-setter for this squad is most certainly their defense, allowing a mere 60.6 PPG. Tufts will most certainly have their work cut out for them on the offensive end, as the Engineers force over 16 turnovers per game. Similarly to Western Connecticut St., the offensive unit will not strike a ton of fear into Tufts’ hearts, but they do possess a slew of players that can create their own shots. Patrick Mahoney ‘21 leads all scorers on the Engineers with 15.1 points per contest and chips in with 5.7 rebounds/game. Mason Memmelaar ‘22 (13.2 PPG, 5.5 REB/G) and Dom Black ‘22 (11.4 PPG, 6.2 REB/G) round out the other two reliable scorers, while Johnny Angbazo (43.5% from three) ‘23 and Will Rubin ‘23 (9.2 PPG, 39.1% from three) will absolutely knock down shots if not given the proper attention.
New England College (21-6, 10-2, New England Collegiate Conference Champions)
(Courtesy of NECC Athletics)
The Pilgrims enter the NCAA Tournament in brilliant form, winners of ten straight (seven of those by double digits). What’s more is that they already own a victory over the Jumbos, a 59-56 defensive battle that saw Tufts turn the ball over 23 times. The game was quite uncharacteristic for both teams involved, but was especially so for the Pilgrims, who average close to 90 points per game. New England College features five different players who average double figures, led by Izaiah Winston-Brooks ‘20 (18.0 PPG, 5.3 REB/G) and Jamal Allen ‘22 (15.0 PPG). They love to drive into the lane and get to the free throw line, averaging right around 16 attempts per game. The defense is below average, allowing over 80 points a game and struggles to rebound the ball. It really is quite puzzling that Tufts fell to a team with this poor of a defensive unit, but upon realizing this was a non-conference meeting during the normal conference slate, the sloppy play is not totally surprising. If they meet again, Tufts should be able to re-enforce their defensive superiority and limit the Pilgrims’ talented weapons, but this is certainly a team to keep an eye on as a potential sleeper in this regional.
It was an interesting day of games as Tufts and Trinity actually fared the same – falling in their first game but turning around and defeating the same team they played on Friday to secure a place in the regional championship. Coming out of the losers bracket is never easy, but these two teams have made it this far for a reason. Let’s take a brief look at what the matchups look like on championship Sunday:
Tufts vs. SUNY Cortland, 10am @ SUNY Cortland
The Jumbos will likely send junior Spencer Langdon ’20 to the mound, much like they did in the fourth game of the NESCAC Tournament, which they ended up winning. Although he did throw two innings out of the bullpen in their first game, I’m not sure that Coach Casey trusts anyone else with the ball in his hands for an elimination game. The Red Dragons will almost surely counter with senior Jake Casey ’19, who has put together a solid season – a 5-0 record along with a 3.00 ERA in 39 innings. The key for Tufts in this game will be keeping the Cortland bats quiet. The Red Dragons came out very hot in their first matchup with the Jumbos, putting up 10 runs in the first 5 innings. The Tufts bats came around eventually and put up 5 runs behind a Casey Santos-Ocampo 3-run home run in the 9th. If they can get the bats going earlier and put up one or two zeroes early on, it will be a very different game. The tricky thing here is that the Jumbos actually need two consecutive victories against SUNY Cortland to secure the regional championship, so it’s definitely an uphill battle. The good news is Coach Casey is no stranger to uphill battles.
Prediction: Tufts 6, SUNY Cortland 4
Trinity vs. Babson, 2:30pm @ Trinity
At this point it’s actually a bit of a mystery who the Bantams will have take the hill against the Beavers. Trinity has already used their top 5 pitchers in terms of innings pitched for at least 3 innings each in the regional. This would lead me to believe that they’ll either send out Max Barsamian ’21 or Alex Herbst ’20. Barsamian clearly has better numbers, but he hasn’t pitched in a game in over two weeks so I have to wonder whether he got injured. Either way, the pitching will be a bit thin and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a committee of guys (headline by none other than Erik Mohl ’19) to give Babson a number of different looks. Babson will run out junior Michael Nocchi ’20, who has amassed a 2.86 ERA and 41 strikeouts in 44 innings pitched. The Beavers definitely aren’t short on pitching, so like Tufts, Trinity will have to bring the bats if they want to walk away victorious. In their elimination game against Salve Regina, outfielder Matt Koperniak ’20 had a career day, going 5-for-5 with 2 home runs and a double, along with 3 RBIs. He clearly isn’t ready to go home yet, so hopefully his teammates will follow his lead and swing their way to the super regionals. They, too, have to sweep a doubleheader to advance, so it will be a tall task for the boys from Hartford.
Well, not much has changed since yesterday as far as our NESCAC teams are concerned. As such, this will be a preview covering mostly their opponents, SUNY Cortland and Babson for Tufts and Trinity, respectively, as well as their potential game plans.
The Competition:
SUNY Cortland (32-11-1, 18-0)—While the Red Dragons were undefeated in conference during the regular season, they got bounced in a double-elimination conference tournament against teams that they didn’t lose to all year. This perennial D3 powerhouse had a tough strength of schedule, ranked #43 in the country and was 5-8-1 against other regionally ranked teams. They had an easy first round game against MAC Commonwealth conference champs, Alvernia, knocking them off 7-3. Cortland, like Tufts, relies on their offense to propel them to victory. With all but one starter hitting above .300, their team .308 average is deceivingly low due to poor play off the bench. They have 33 dingers as a team which is more than any NESCAC team and will be on their home turf and the home team. They threw their ace, Matt Valin, yesterday in the opening contest, so they are likely to run their #2, Zack Durant, against the Jumbos. Durant has had an impressive season with a 2.95 ERA and almost a 9 K/9. Because of how bad Cortland’s conference is but how strong their non-conference schedule is, it makes for a stark difference between competition start to start for pitchers. He lasted just one inning against Trinity (TX) in his first outing, got lit up by Johns Hopkins, and by the best team in Cortland’s conference, SUNY Oswego. He dealt against bad teams like Plattsburgh and Fredonia, but Tufts has a far more comparable lineup to the teams that ended Durant’s outings early.
What to Expect:
Aidan Tucker will take the ball for the Jumbos as they look to move to the regional championship game. Tucker will not stifle the Cortland hitters like he did against some of the poor NESCAC east teams and we can expect this one to be a high scoring shootout. Tufts will meet a comparable counterpart in the Red Dragons here, and this one will come down to which bullpen is better and which team executes better offensively.
Prediction: Tufts 8, Cortland 6
Trinity vs. Babson, 2:30 PM @ Trinity
The Competition:
Babson (34-7, 15-2)—The Beavers also lost in their conference tournament, losing the NEWMAC crown on the final day to MIT. They actually forced a do-or-die game by come back from down three runs in the tenth to hit a walk-off grand slam with two outs, but couldn’t get it done the next day. Babson was the second best team in the New-England region behind Southern Maine (who was upset by New England College in their first game yesterday) and had the #27 strength of schedule in 2019 and a 12-5 record against other regionally ranked opponents. They are the #1 seed in this regional despite not being the host and will not be nearly as easy of a game as Salve Regina was for the Bantams. Their .303 team average and 25 homeruns are also comparable to Trinity’s numbers, however, they are far less aggressive on the bases. They started Tyler Bell yesterday, a pitcher with great numbers but only two starts before their game against Keystone. That means that their ace, Michael Genaro, will toe the rubber today and that is tough news for Trinity as he boasts a 1.87 ERA, averages 7 1/3 IP per start, and has walked just six hitters all season.
What to expect:
Freshman Cameron Crowley will start for the Bantams against Babson’s best and might struggle against such impressive competition. Genaro will be the best arm that the Bantams have seen in quite some time and they may be stifled all day and not get many baserunners against a more disciplined team. I expect this to be a low scoring game and for one or two plays to really define this contest. Trinity has seen good teams all season, so the Beavers aren’t overly terrifying, however I can’t see them putting more than three runs across the board in the first six innings. Crowley needs to put up his A-game for the Bantams to compete and Erik Mohl will need to hold a tight lead if given the opportunity.
Tufts vs. Penn St-Harrisburg; Friday, May 17, 2:00pm @ SUNY Cortland
Another year, another trophy headed to Medford. The Jumbos have done it again, but this time with a slightly different formula. In the past we’ve seen dominant Tufts pitching carry them to a title, and although they do have their guy in RJ Hall ’19, it was the hitting that really stood out this year. Offensively, Tufts led the NESCAC in hits, doubles, home runs, runs scored, runs batted in, walks, batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. The pitching numbers were solid, but it’s no secret that Tufts is back in the regional because of their bats.
How They Got Here
3 of the last 4 NESCAC crowns belong to the Tufts Jumbos, so it really isn’t a surprise that they’re back here yet again. What’s interesting (as I mentioned before) is the way that they did it. Of the 9 guys that start in their lineup, 7 of them are hitting over .300 with the other 2 hitting .289 and .294, respectively. My first thought when I see numbers like this is that Tufts must be playing a pretty easy schedule, because even for a conference champion these are pretty jaw-dropping numbers. Turns out I’m right – despite a very impressive record, the Jumbos were not receiving any credit for most of the year in either the regional or national rankings due to their weak strength of schedule. Well, they responded by winning the NESCAC Tournament behind Kyle Cortese’s record-breaking 5 homer performance and they’ll look to continue their run into the always-tough SUNY Cortland regional.
What’s Next
The key for Tufts moving forward in tournament play is going to be pitching depth. They’ve got their guy in RJ Hall ’19, who recently took home the NESCAC Pitcher of the Year with an astounding 1.31 ERA in 55 innings pitched. In fact, Hall has pitched in 9 games this season (8 starts) and Tufts won all 9 of those games. It’s clear that when Hall takes the mound the game has a very different feeling – the question is what they’ll do after that. They have good arms in Aidan Tucker ’22, Spencer Langdon ’20, and Brent Greeley ’20 who all have starting experience, but they also need someone strong at the back end of games. Coach Casey has been here time and time again, so I would imagine that he already has every inning mapped out to a T.
Penn St-Harrisburg
Harrisburg received an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament after falling in the Capital Athletic Conference championship series to no. 1 nationally ranked Christopher Newport. A 32-win team is no joke whether they won their conference or not, especially when they’ve hit 68 home runs as a team. In fact, the top 5 hitters in the Harrisburg lineup all have equal or more home runs than the NESCAC league-leader (Kyle Cortese, 7). They’re paced by CAC player of the year Bret Williams ’20, who led the league with 83 hits (17 of which were home runs), finishing with a .430 batting average. The tricky thing with this team is that they aren’t solely reliant on Williams to produce in their lineup. The Nittany Lions are loaded with guys who flat out rake – Miguel Torres ’19 (.399 BA, 7 HR), Chase Smith ’21 (.319 BA, 9 HR), Travis Van Houten ’20 (.391, 11 HR), Zach Koroneos (.267 BA, 12 HR), and Ryan McSorley ’21 (.331, 5 HR), just to name a few. A team ERA of 5.67 is less than impressive, but with offensive production like this it doesn’t seem to really matter.
Matchup Preview
Travis Van Houten ’20 vs. RJ Hall ’19
Van Houten’s numbers don’t jump off the page, but he is clearly the go-to guy for Harrisburg. His 4.91 ERA in 73.1 innings is nothing special, but having 75 strikeouts on the season indicates that this guy has some pretty good stuff. The only question that presents itself is whether or not Harrisburg would want to use their starting third baseman to pitch in the opening game of the tournament. Van Houten is one of the team’s top hitters as well, so I’m interested to see if they’re comfortable using him with a sore arm at third base for the rest of the tournament, or if they’ll decide to go with someone else in game one to give Van Houten an extra game. They threw him in game one of their conference championship series last weekend, so it doesn’t appear that they’re too worried about his impact in the field the day after he pitches.
Hall, on the other hand, has had a pretty dominant year. 8 earned runs in 55 innings is ridiculous, and logically this garnered him NESCAC Pitcher of the Year honors. As I mentioned before, Tufts is yet to lose a game in which Hall pitches, so there is clearly something special going on every time he takes the mound. While this may be true, only one of these wins was by fewer than 4 runs and in that game Hall earned a no-decision. There’s no question that this guy knows how to pitch, but can he grind out a one-run victory in an NCAA Tournament game? Stay tuned to find out…
Trinity vs. Salve Regina; Friday, May 17, 2:30 PM @ DiBenedetto Field
Trinity somehow (via a great strength of schedule and many impressive non-conference wins) snuck into the NCAA tournament after missing the NESCAC tournament which is unusual. They showed this year that they are certainly capable of facing NCAA caliber teams and winning, shown by an extensive 10+ wins against regionally ranked opponents. They aren’t overly impressive in any statistical category other than stolen bases where their total of 129 is second to just Middlebury in the NESCAC who led the nation in 2019. A .291 team average is pretty middle of the pack as is their 3.99 team ERA. It’s not overly surprising that Trinity finished with such a good record given these metrics, but how did they beat so many good teams since nothing really stands out?
How they got here:
Trinity’s 10-5 record against regionally ranked opponents and #44 strength of schedule nationally led to their #4 ranking in the New England region granting them an at-large berth. With this regional ranking, there were a definite lock to get this bid, so it came as no surprise when they got the call this Monday. Their most impressive wins this year were against Southern Maine and Wheaton (MA) so let’s take a look at the winning formula from those contests that the Bantams will need this weekend. Andrew DeRoche ’20 took the ball against the Southern Maine Huskies, throwing 3.1 innings and was relieved by Erik Mohl ’19 who tossed the next 3.2 innings. It’s clear that Johnny Stamatis ’19 and Matt Koperniak ’20 are the key catalysts for this lineup as they swipe tons of bags, have power, and hit for average. Stamatis had 2 RBI against the Huskies and Koperniak added an RBI against Wheaton. Cameron Crowley ’22 threw against Wheaton, tossing 5.2 innings of three-run ball and Mohl collected the save. The Bantams also won 7-3 and 9-1 against Salve during the season and what was the common denominator? Erik Mohl. While Andrew DeRoche started in one of those games, Mohl relieved in both and has shown that he is an innings eater.
What’s Next:
Mohl must continue to have such a versatile and consistent role for the Bantams for them to continue in the playoffs. Mohl’s ability to reliably eat innings, bridging the starting pitchers to the back of the bullpen is crucial and the diversifying factor for the Bantam team. While they swipe bags and have a few real weapons in their lineup, every single other team in the NCAA tournament does too. The Trinity lineup is nothing special. However, coupled with sufficient starting pitching depth is the NESCAC’s version of Andrew Miller in Mohl who, after being Nothing But NESCAC’s 2018 preseason East Pitcher of the Year, had a tough 2018 season, but is really bouncing back in 2019. The lefty has thrown 45 innings in 21 appearances in the 2019 season. 21 appearances is absurd. Don’t be surprised to see Mohl throw in every single game this weekend. Pairing the lefty Mohl with Crowley, DeRoche, Jimmy Fahey ’22, and Will Simeone ’22, the Bantams will showcase an unusually deep pitching arsenal that makes them competitive in every game they play.
Salve Regina Seahawks:
Salve Regina earned the CCC tournament’s automatic bid after winning the last 2/3 games in their championship series against Roger Williams. They like to run a little bit (66 steals) and have more pop than Trinity with Sr. OF Zack Smith ’19 leading the team with 9 round-trippers. Their team average of .297 is respectable and extremely comparable to Trinity’s profile as the Seahawks have the #49 D3 strength of schedule per d3baseball.com’s metrics. They also bolster a strong starting rotation with three arms with 40+ innings while two of them, Michael Matthews ’21 and Patrick Mayback ’20, have over 13 K/9. For reference, not a single NESCAC starting pitcher with over 40 innings had over a 9 K/9. Where they falter is in their bullpen as they do not have any primary relievers with under a 4.8 ERA. What’s likely to happen is that some of their midweek starters (Tom Beliveau ’20 and Michael Viveiros ’21) will be converted to relievers for the weekend of games. And while Trinity is 2-0 on the season series against the Seahawks, one of those games was on a Tuesday which essentially nixes that contest from comparison for the postseason since the starting pitchers are not close to what we will see today and the second game was ‘staffed’ by Salve, meaning they did not throw a starter for more than two innings.
Matchup Preview:
Will Ginsberg ’19 vs Andrew DeRoche ’20
Salve should not start Ginsberg in this game, but I’d bet that they do anyways. Coaches always put their seniors on the mound in game one for their experience, competitiveness, etc, but this is a safe and ill-sited decision in this case. Ginsberg leads the team in innings but has allowed 71 hits in 67 innings and struck out just 52 (6.95 K/9). They should throw Patrick Mayback but their second option should be Michael Matthews due to their swing and miss arsenals.
For the Bantams, DeRoche is likely to start despite Crowley’s All-NESCAC selection and 8-0 record. Crowley’s record is deceiving as are all win-loss records as he has had unsustainable success levels (24 walks and 24 K’s in 51 innings is a bad FIP…) whereas DeRoche has been a mainstay all season and has been extremely consistent going deep into outings. Crowley, albeit, has been dominant of late, closing the year off with 26 innings of two-run baseball, but I’d still go with DeRoche in game one and save Crowley for game two of the weekend and try to jump into the championship game.
I don’t think this will be a heavy offensive affair, however, Trinity will scrap their way to several runs. Barring a power surge from Salve, Trinity’s experience this season and track record winning close games should give them a surefire edge to open the weekend.
Game #1: (2) Bates vs (1) Williams – Friday @ 2:30 PM
The first game of this year’s NESCAC playoffs features the #2 seed in the East, Bates, taking on the #1 from the West, Williams. Williams was able to edge themselves to the top of the West, taking the #1 seed from Middlebury based on head-to-head record. Williams was able to capture this title through defeating Wesleyan in the final game of their series last weekend. A Kellen Hatheway 2-run home run in the top of the 9th broke the even score and eventually sent Williams on to the tournament. Bates is probably the biggest surprise in this field. Trinity was ranked better than them all season, and even had received national votes, but after taking 2 of three games from the Bantams at home, Bates went on to sweep both of their CBB rivals and secure themselves a playoff spot, 1 game ahead of Trinity.
Williams: LHP Jack Bohen ’19 (5-0, 2.24 ERA, 44.2IP)
Williams will likely feature senior left hander Jack Bohen on the mound to face the Bobcats. Bohen has had an absolute career-year this season, lowering his ERA from 4.60 last year down to 2.24 this year. Bohen is coming off of what was most likely the best, and most important, game of his career to date. In a must-win series Bohen came out and tossed 8 innings, giving up no earned runs and walking just 2. It is clear to see in that stat book that Bohen is a pitch-to-contact hitter, because in those 8 innings of work he had just one strikeout. It is not always about the punchout and Bohen has been proving that this year. He has all the momentum he needs and I’m sure that he will not be looking to take his first loss of the season in this game. Bates will counter Bohen with right Nolan Collins, a junior from California. Collins had a breakout sophomore season last year in which he secured the #1 spot in the rotation. Since then he has done nothing but improve and help propel Bates to the playoffs. Aside from a bad start against Tufts, that most starters would’ve been happy with against the Jumbos, Collins has provided his team with more than enough opportunity to win in every game he has started, and for the most part they have won. Versus the common opponents that Bohen and Collins started against, Colby and Wesleyan, they have fairly similar numbers, perhaps Bohen having a slight edge. Both of these pitchers are in the top tier of NESCAC talent. It might be a struggle for both teams to get into an offensive rhythm, but it is the playoffs and anything can happen.
Key Offensive Talent
Bates
Christian Beal ’21
You can’t talk about the Bates lineup without talking about Christian Beal ’21. Beal paces Bates with his 49 hits (4th in NESCAC), .371 AVG (4th in NESCAC), 9 doubles, 2 triples and 11 stolen bases. He is the spark plug for Bates and when he plays well, they play well. Bates are 10-5 in games which Beal collects 2 or more hits, and the fact that there are 15 games shows how impactful he has been. Supporting Beal is catcher Jack Arend ’20 who is hitting .370 with 23 RBI. Arend also leads the NESCAC in walks with 33, putting his OBP at .548, also tops in the conference. Arend’s uncanny ability to draw the walk is a valuable weapon, as can be seen by his 21 runs scored, 2nd best on the team. Justin White ’19, Bryan Gotti ’22 and Jon Lindgren ’20 have also been important pieces in the lineup, all three of them are hitting over .300. Bates has a couple of high quality offensive weapons with the support of several impactful bats. While this may have been enough against teams like Colby and Bowdoin, against teams like Williams, Bates may have to exceed expectations just to keep up.
Williams
Williams has one of the most potent offenses in the NESCAC. As a team, they lead the NESCAC in triples with 17, are second in the NESCAC with a .308 team average and are also second in hits with 340. One of William’s offensive starts that is much to thank for these stats is Eric Pappas ’21. Pappas is tied for the league lead in hits and reaches base nearly half the time with his .493 OBP. When a player almost has double as many hits as games, it is a good sign that they’re having a solid year. This is true of not only Pappas, but also his teammate Doug Schaffer ’19. Along with his 53 hits, Schaffer is 2nd in the NESCAC in doubles with 12 and leads the NESCAC in batting average (.433) and slugging (.633). Perhaps more impressive than all of these stats, Schafer leads the NESCAC is RBI with 46, 14 more than the next closest player. Schafer has an extremely strong case for Player of the Year and an invaluable asset for the Ephs. Erik Mini ’21 has provided some well-timed offense this year with his 3 home runs and 27 RBI. Kellen Hatheway ’19 has only started ⅔ of Williams’ contests but he had made the most of his time, hitting .407 and blasting the home run that sent Williams to the playoffs. Williams has proved throughout the year that they are one of the most potent offenses in the NESCAC and it will be tough for any starter to keep them completely quiet.
Prediction: (W1) Williams defeats (E2) Bates
Game #2: (2) Middlebury vs (1) Tufts – Friday @ 6 PM
After the conclusion of Bates versus Williams, Midd and Tufts will take the field for their first tastes of the 2019 postseason. Middlebury returns to the playoffs this year after narrowly missing out last season. They had basically the same scenario last year as they did this year, beat Amherst in a series and they’re in. While last year they fell short, they were able to redeem themselves this season and secure their playoff spot. Now they have to take on Tufts, who is looking for redemption after falling short of the NESCAC title last season. Tufts has had fairly smooth sailing in-conference this season, winning every series and sweeping Bowdoin and Colby.
Morris and Hall have both been four-year starters for their respective programs, and were the only two pitchers to be named 1st Team All-NESCAC last season, with Morris taking Pitcher of the Year honors as well. It is safe to say that these two are among the most experienced and talented players in the NESCAC this season, and they will need to leave it all on the line Friday night to outduel their counterpart. In all but one of his starts this season Morris has gone at least 5 innings and given up 3 or less runs. In his last two starts Morris has left it all out on the line for his team, going all 9 in both starts. Morris is one of, if not the most, decorated pitchers in the history of the Middlebury program but is yet to capture that elusive NESCAC title. This will be one of the biggest games of Morris’ career and he has proved throughout that career that he won’t give in until the last pitch. Morris will need to maintain that ferocity in order to compete with RJ Hall, who has been extremely effective at keeping opponents off this scoreboard this season. Similar to Morris, Hall has recorded two complete games in his last two contests (although they were both 7 inning games). While Morris may have more career innings pitched than Hall, Hall has far and away more playoff experience than Morris. In Hall’s 5 playoff appearances, 4 starts, he has pitched a total of 35 innings and has a record of 2-2 with one save. Meanwhile Morris has just 2 starts, totalling 13 ⅓ IP and a 1-1 record. It is also important to note that Hall’s playoff ERA is 1.29 while Morris’ is 4.05. Perhaps experience in these high-stress playoff situations will prove vital and become a big advantage for Tufts, who has a roster chalk full of playoff experiences. It is also important to note that this matchup has already occured this year and it is evidence of just how closely these two starters matchup. In the previous game Tufts won on an 8th inning walk-off 4-3. Both Morris and Hall went for 6 innings and gave up three runs. Their statline was near identical. Based upon how close that result was, there is no clear edge here. It’s anybody’s game.
Key Offensive Players:
Middlebury
Middlebury’s offense has managed to score twice as many runs as its opponents this year, showing their dominance on both sides of the ball. This is thanks to the fact that their offense is so well-rounded and has valuable weapons up and down it. 8 Middlebury hitters have already collected 20 or more hits, with three more (Justin Han, Brooks Carroll and Henry Strmecki) have 35 or more. Similarly, 9 different Panthers have gone deep this year with three of them (Henry Strmecki ’21, Kevin Woodring ’20, and Alec Ritch ’22) have left the yard multiple times. From those statistic you could probably guess that Henry Strmecki is a vital part of the Midd offense, and you would be right. Strmecki is 2nd on the team in hits (35), batting average (.330) and leads the team in runs (34), RBI (24) and leads the NESCAC in home runs with 5. Justin Han ’20 has also been impressive for Midd, leading the team in hist with 36, doubles with 8 and stolen bases with 22. Stealing bags is where Midd excels and they will steal early and often. They have stolen 142 bags while they’ve had just 36 stolen against them. They are running with an 88.2% success rate compared to opponents 80%. 14 Middlebury players have recorded steals with 6 of them stealing 12 or more. Middlebury runs a fast, high-potency offense that is more than a challenge to contain, but if anyone were to be up to that challenge it would be RJ Hall and the Jumbos.
Tufts
Not enough can be said to describe how much better Tufts’ hitting is than basically every other team in the NESCAC East. In-conference they are hitting .319 and the next closest in the East is Bates with .283. They also have the most hits (128), triples (3), home runs (7), RBI (72), OBP (.414) and slugging (.442). Tufts has just been flat out better than all of their NESCAC opponents. While these numbers are real and hold value, it is important to note the level of competition in the East versus the West. The East was so top-heavy this year that it allowed the far and away best team, Tufts, to gain inflated statistics compared to NESCAC West teams. They gain this advantage because the level of competition is much more even in the West so it is much more difficult to gain the dominant statistics that many Tufts players have. That being said, they are still most likely the best offense in the NESCAC. 6 different Jumbos have multiple home runs and 6 of their starters are hitting at or well above .300. Elias Varinos ’20 leads the the team in hits with 45 and walks with 23. Casey Santos-Ocampo ’19 paces the team in dingers with 4 and freshman Peter DeMaria ’22 leads the NESCAC in doubles with 15. Tufts has no soft spots in their lineup and pitchers need to be mentally aware of that going in. You can’t feed a fastball to the 9 hitter because he can take you yard too. I’m yet to be convinced that anyone can truly outclass Tufts’ offense, so Midd will have to show us something special Friday.
In this game Tufts holds the clear advantage. They will be upset that they lost their initial game and take their anger out on an already down Bates team. Brent Greeley ’20 would most likely start the second game for the Jumbos and he has been solid this year, holding a 3-2 record and 2.99 ERA. Bates would send out Justin Foley ’19, who has a 6-2 record with a 3.59 ERA. These two did not match up head to head in the regular season but both recorded wins against each othersrespective club. In all reality, Tufts is the far more talented and experienced club and would be unlucky to win their first game and have no chance of letting the first two slip by when they’ve lost just 2 conference games all year.
Prediction: (E1) Tufts defeats (E2) Bates, (E2) Bates is eliminated
(1) Williams vs. (2) Middlebury – Saturday @ 2 PM
Sam Rohrer ’22
This matchup will likely feature Middlebury senior Colin Waters ’19 and Williams freshman Sam Rohrer ’22. Waters has the experience over the rookie Rohrer, but Waters has struggled this year while Rohrer has impressed many in his freshman campaign. Last time against Midd Rohrer went 7 strong innings and only gave up one run to get the win. Against Williams Waters went 6 innings and gave up 4 runs in a loss. Well the numbers and this years past tell us that Rohrer and Williams have the clear advantage, a playoff atmosphere and a underdog win against Tufts might propel Midd to championship Sunday.
Prediction: (W1) Williams defeats (W2) Middlebury
(1) Tufts vs. (2) Middlebury – Saturday 45 minutes after Williams vs. Midd
Tufts an Midd meet once again here in a rematch of the first round. This game is an elimination one so everything is one the line for both teams. This is where arm health and depth really comes into play. Midd likely will send freshman Alex Price ’22 to the mound here who has been lights out the last few weeks and is certainly a candidate for freshman of the year along with several of the Tufts first year hitters. Their conference leading ERA will be put to the test as will their waning arm health (Starter Michael Farinelli ’21 hasn’t pitched in weeks), however, they certainly are up to the task. For the Jumbos Hall could certainly appear but their bullpen is very deep, although not as talented as Midd’s, so they have lots of semi-qualified candidates. This game is an absolute free-for-all but I think the Jumbos have a winning tradition, mentality and expectation and will find a way to make the game theirs.
Game 6 @ 10:30 AM, Game 7 30 minutes after game 6 (if necessary)
In this championship scenario, Tufts will need to defeat Williams twice to take the crown while the Ephs just have to take one of the possible two games to be named NESCAC champions. One thing that Williams would have going for them is that they have played 1 less game than the Jumbos, saving important arms. Tufts’ bullpen will have already been overused at this point and one more game let alone two would take a huge toll. That being said, three games in three days is still a lot so while Williams will be in better shape they are not at 100% by any means. These two offenses are probably the best in the NESCAC and they will be facing some very tired pitching staffs. I would expect that Tufts would be able to get to Williams in the first game of the series, but they would have basically spent the lasts of their pitching. This would allow Williams to take the advantage in the final game of the playoffs an come out victorious.
And then there were four. NESCAC playoff baseball is here with a few surprises. Bates came out of nowhere to claim yet another playoff appearance. Tufts remained the top team in the East. Wesleyan and Amherst can no longer claim dominance in the West. Williams and Middlebury took their spots. Colby didn’t win a conference game all year. On a positive note, there’s nowhere to go but up for the Mules! NESCAC playoff baseball promises close games, great pitching, and clutch hitting. Let’s take a look at my stock report:
Long: Whatever’s going on in Lewiston, ME
Brace yourself, Bobcats fans, you’re not going to appreciate what I am about to say: Lewiston has to be the worst location of all NESCAC schools. And yes, I am writing that in my dorm room in Middletown, CT. Regardless of their location, the Bobcats have been a model of consistency for the past few years. When Coach Leonard left for Middlebury three years ago, the growth could’ve ended for Bates. Jon Martin, a former Vassar College coach, was named head coach shortly after. Vassar, a school who boasts alumni such as Meryl Streep and Phoebe from Friends (Lisa Kudrow), isn’t known for its athletics. Martin has led Bates to three consecutive playoff appearances in a division with Trinity and Tufts. Bates has always relied on their strong pitching and clutch hitting to win some ball games. The Bobcats have never been able to get over the hump. Is this their year? It certainly looks like the Bobcats have improved on the hitting side with Christian Beal ’21 and Jack Arend ’20 hitting in the high .300’s. Nolan Collins ’20 has been an absolute force yet again with a team high in innings and a 2.44 ERA. Of all the teams in the playoffs, Bates has the best matchup in game one against Williams. If the Bobcats take game one, they will be in the driver’s seat for the rest of the tournament. I am excited to see if Bates can finally get over the hump this year – it would be tough to have three straight playoff appearances coupled with three straight early exits. Arend, Beal, Collins, and co. may have the swagger to get them over the top, though. It will be fun to watch.
Short: Amherst and Wesleyan
If you were to ask me before the season began who would represent the West in the playoffs, I would say Wesleyan and Amherst. Wes made the playoffs a year ago, and their only real impact player who graduated was Matt Jeye. I would’ve expected Mike McCaffrey ’19 and Kelvin Sosa ’21 to have dominant seasons again. McCaffrey only appeared in three conference games, which was a dramatic decrease from last year. Wesleyan didn’t seem to have the same clutch factor they did a year ago. Alex Cappitelli ’20 had an off year for his high standards, and the weakness in the lineup game from middle to bottom. Clutch hitting was a real issue for the Cardinals. Amherst was fresh off a NESCAC championship the year before. One could speculate that a fall was possible for Amherst. The losses of Coach Hamm, Harry Roberson, and Max Steinhorn proved to be too much to overcome. Amherst has always been a very resilient bunch, so I was surprised they couldn’t get a playoff bid in a so-so conference. Middlebury taking a playoff spot wasn’t all that surprising to me. I truly believe getting swept by Wes to start the 2018 season just crushed the Panthers the rest of the way. It was a sophomore slump for Midd. The likes of Colby Morris ’19 and Justin Han ’20 drove the Panthers this year to a playoff appearance. Amherst and Wesleyan are the usual suspects representing the West based on previous years, so I am quite shocked that neither of them made it in this year. I am curious to see how they bounce back next year especially with Wesleyan graduating many key players.
