Category: Wesleyan

Last Ditch Effort: Power Ranks 2/10

The celebration was short-lived for the Bobcats on their senior night, and they'll need to find some inspiration if they are going to make the NESCAC playoffs. (Courtesy of Josh Kuckens/Bates College)
The celebration was short-lived for the Bobcats on their senior night, and they’ll need to find some inspiration if they are going to make the NESCAC playoffs. (Courtesy of Josh Kuckens/Bates College)

Being on break this past weekend, I followed the NESCAC action from afar even as my Middlebury classmates played their final regular season home games in Pepin Gymnasium. What stood out to me over the weekend was the continued separation between the top five and bottom six, and the Cardinals darkened that line with a buzzer-beating win over the sixth-place Ephs. As usual, though, there were close games even between the “elite” and the “also-rans”, but in this case all of big favorites won their games. So, while there is a little bit of variation in the top and bottom tier, there will be no teams crossing that chasm until one of the bottom feeders can emerge as a consistent adversary.

1. No. 19 Amherst (18-4, 6-2, Last week: 1)

Yes, they lost to Tufts, and yes, it wasn’t particularly close, but let’s not overreact. Look, Amherst isn’t a perfect team, and they might slip up here and there, but I still hold them as the favorite as of this posting today. Not to excuse Amherst from that game, but Tufts was at home, and the Jumbos shot 8-20 from three, and in case you forgot, Amherst is leading the world in three-point field goal percentage defense (27.4 percent allowed), so that’s anomalous. What’s more, Jeff Racy ’17 is in an epic slump right now (he was 0-6 from deep against Tufts), and I think that actually bodes well for Amherst going forward for two reasons. Racy’s slump has highlighted the ability of Connor Green ’16, Jayde Dawson ’18 and Johnny McCarthy ’18 to put up big points on any given night. They don’t need one guy to score 20 per game for them to win. Secondly, Racy is going to come back. He might not shoot near 60 percent from beyond the arc as he did early in the season, but he won’t go 0-6 very often, either. This team is still very good. As Adam pointed out though, the rotation continues to shorten, so the lack of bench production from the Purple and White remains a concern.

2. Trinity (16-6, 7-1, Last week: 2)

Two games, two easy wins, and one over the Amherst-slaying Tufts Jumbos in Medford. Even with Ed Ogundeko ’17 hampered, Trinity cleaned up the boards in both games. In stark opposition to Amherst, Trinity can get scoring from everyone up and down the lineup, which, in the end, might be the reason that Trinity prevails in a back-to-back NESCAC Semis and Finals scenario. For now, though, the head-to-head loss to Amherst still speaks loudly, and even though Tufts went on to beat Amherst the night after losing to Trinity, there’s the fact that the Jumbos may have been in panic mode and needing a win over Amherst. Don’t underestimate a team in a must-win situation.

3. Middlebury (14-8, 6-2, Last week: 5)

Spots 3-5 have become so muddled, but I took a glance over the Panthers last eight games and realized that if Andrew Groll ’19 hadn’t canned that short jumper as time expired to beat the Panthers, they’d be a lock for this spot and be 7-1 in conference play. Now, of course, we can’t just ignore that said nail in the coffin happened, that Middlebury has also fallen to Conn. College, that they only beat Colby by two points last Friday at home, and they haven’t yet played Amherst or Trinity. Still, as it stands today, they’re looking pretty good. They seem to have a bit of a fighter’s mentality this season, whereas in years past there was more of a sense that if the star wasn’t playing well or they were down at half, that you could write it off. Not anymore. I don’t have much wealth to wager these days (especially after some sour Super Bowl bets), but I’d put down a few bucks on Middlebury going 1-1 this weekend against the top two teams, which would mean a home playoff game in Pepin Gym.

4. No. 20 Wesleyan (18-4, 5-3, Last week: 3)

As I said in last week’s ranks, things are trending up for the Cardinals, so why did they move down a notch? Simply put, things are so close between Middlebury, Wesleyan and Tufts, and head-to-head scores move the needle ever so slightly. Tack on a nailbiter against Williams, a team that the Cards should beat handily on paper, and Wesleyan drops to No. 4. Still, the contributions of Jack Mackey ’16 and the solid eight-man rotation continue to give me confidence in this team. Their ability to pull out the victory against Williams suggests that they are a mature team, and that’s the difference between them and a green Ephs squadron.

5. No. 25 Tufts (17-5, 6-3, Last week: 4)

The win over Amherst and loss to Trinity sum up to a pretty par for the course weekend. Good for the Jumbos, as a 2-0 performance would mean bye-bye home game, but they were able to stay in the conversation with one win. In the loss to the Bantams, they breakout of Shay Ajayi ’16 is troublesome for Tufts. How was Tom Palleschi ’17, by far the league’s best shot blocker and a tough interior defender, not able to slow down Ajayi? Perhaps the key to beating Palleschi is to give the ball to someone quick who can step away from the basket and shoot jumpers, but how many teams have that guy? Not Amherst, maybe Middlebury if Matt Daley ’16 is making shots from 15-foot jumpers, sort of Wesleyan if Rashid Epps ’16 is going well, but if Joseph Kuo ’17 is in the game them Palleschi is apt to cover the latter, while Kyle Scadlock ’19 or Jack Simonds ’19 might be that guy, but as a whole their teams probably aren’t good enough to beat Tufts. So often in basketball it comes down to matchups, and it just might be that Trinity has the perfect one to exploit what Tufts can do on defense.

6. Williams (14-8, 4-4, Last week: 6)

They continue to solidify that No. 6 spot, even in defeat, as a buzzer beating loss to the Cardinals is nothing to tuck your tail over. They also just squeaked out a win over Conn. College, but the Camels are darn good, in case you hadn’t noticed. The biggest thing holding this team back is youth. Losing Mike Greenman ’17 has been, I think, an unquantifiable loss. He probably wouldn’t have put up massive numbers on the stat sheet, but his presence would have been invaluable, and we might be talking about the “top six” teams instead of the “top five” if he were still playing. As it stands now, two freshmen, Kyle Scadlock and Bobby Casey ’19, are playing starter minutes, while two others fit into the tail end of the rotation, and the rest of the rotation is pretty inexperienced, as well, with the exception of Dan Aronowitz ’17.

7. Conn College (12-10, 3-5, Last week: 9)

Sort of how I did with Middlebury, I look at Conn’s last X number of games and say, I could easily have seen this or that turning out differently and we might really have something here. Of course, you can often say that with any team, but Conn’s play has really stuck out to me. They’re young, they’re inexperienced, and they could easily fade off like most young teams, and yet they just keep competing. And I’m moving them up in the rankings, despite losing five straight games. Those five games – a neck-and-neck two-point loss vs. Tufts; a disappointing 105-89 loss vs. Mitchell College; an eight-point loss to Wesleyan, in Middletown, in which the Cardinals had to go 20-30 from the floor in the second half to win; a comeback attempt fallen short at Western Connecticut; and a lead let slip to Williams, 70-67. As the Camels get a little more mature, they’ll learn how to win those games, and by next season they could be hosting a playoff game.

8. Colby (14-8, 2-6, Last week: 7)

My Mules keep holding on. I shouldn’t call them “my Mules,” because I don’t want to play favorites (other than Middlebury), but I have stubbornly believed that they can turn it on all season long. They almost beat the Panthers, and they just got by the Continentals in the season’s highest-scoring NESCAC game. That’s just who Colby is – a run ‘n’ gun squad that will struggle against the better defenses. The bright side for them is that Chris Hudnut ’16 has been playing consistent minutes which gives them a chance in any game, and Pat Stewart ’16 has, at least for now, surpassed Racy as the best three-point shooter in the NESCAC. What’s more, Stewart isn’t a one-trick pony. As if this offense wasn’t dangerous enough already.

9. Hamilton (11-11, 2-6, Last week: 11)

Things are pretty ugly down here in the bottom trio right now, but none of these teams are quite dead yet. The Conts have a brutal weekend ahead with Trinity and Amherst coming up, but it’s not ridiculous that a 3-7 team could squeak into the playoffs, so they still have plenty to play for, and they showed it last weekend. The 15-point win over Bowdoin was consummate. Hamilton outshot the Polar Bears in every facet, matched them on the boards and only let Bowdoin ahead for the first 3:15 of the contest. The enigma that is Ajani Santos ’16 looked like an old version of himself, only better, with 25 points and seven boards. Unfortunately, the magic wore off in the game against Colby. Santos only played 17 minutes and had four points, but it was the frosh Michael Grassey ’19 bursting onto the scene with 23 bench points. Groll collected a double-double, as well, with 18 points and 10 boards, but Colby just outshot Hamilton in the OT period to pull away. This is another young team gaining valuable experience this season, and getting a playoff game would be huge for their development.

10. Bowdoin (10-10, 2-6, Last week: 8)

The loss to Hamilton really stung this weekend, and the Polar Bears didn’t put up too much of a fight against Middlebury. At this point we have a pretty good grip on what Bowdoin can do. They only go as far as Lucas Hausman ’16 and Jack Simonds ’19. Against Middlebury, that pair combined for 52 of the team’s 69 points. On the season they have scored 51.3 percent of Bowdoin’s points, by far the highest percentage for any duo (Vinny Pace ’18 and Tom Palleschi have tallied 37.6 percent of the Jumbos’ points). That can lead to some exciting games to watch, but it’s not a recipe for success, especially not at this level.

11. Bates (10-13, 2-7)

Bowdoin just creamed the Bobcats last night, but even if that hadn’t happened, Bates would probably still be in this spot. They’ve lost three in a row, seven of eight, and eight of 10. Things have really deteriorated. Bates opened the season with six straight games of 79 or more points, and had a five-game stretch where they scored 73+ four times. In the nine games sense, Bates has scored less than 70 in seven of those games, and the 73-51 loss to Bowdoin last night was probably the team’s low point. All of that is a long way of saying that Bates’ season has been in free fall for awhile. Other teams have figured out how to force Mike Boornazian ’16 into a lot of tough shots, and he’s had some bad shooting nights because of it with no one to pick up the slack. As I said before, none of these teams are dead yet, but it will take a monumental effort and a lot of luck for Bates to sneak into the postseason.

 

Amherst vs. Tufts – The Battle for First Place?: Weekend Preview 2/6 (Part 2)

Johnny McCarthy '18 will be tasked with shutting down Tufts' top scorer Vinny Pace '18. (Courtesy of Amherst College Athletics)
Johnny McCarthy ’18 will be tasked with shutting down Tufts’ top scorer Vinny Pace ’18. (Courtesy of Amherst College Athletics)

So I went 2-1 yesterday with two games cancelled due to snow. Tufts did not show up even though Jaquann Starks ’16 was a non-factor and Ed Ogundeko ’16 played just 14 minutes. Meanwhile, Trinity played at a consistently high level throughout the game, and after capitalizing on some Tufts mistakes in the last eight minutes or so, the Bantams pulled away. I didn’t watch either of the other two games, but more on those will come next week. As for my Bowdoin-Hamilton and Colby-Middlebury predictions, I have not wavered. We’ll see what happens today.

For the rest of the weekend we are going to see some teams fighting for their lives. Bates doesn’t get a much easier game today than it did yesterday as they follow up a massacre courtesy of Amherst with a matchup against Trinity. If the Bobcats want a shot at making the playoffs they’re probably going to need to win today. Bowdoin, also on the bubble, could put themselves in a great position to make the playoffs with a sweep this weekend. Meanwhile, Colby and Hamilton, each with just one win, can pretty much count themselves out if they lose their Sunday matchup. The contest between Williams and Connecticut College tomorrow should be an outstanding game between two solid teams, both of whom are trying to claw their way into the middle of the pack as the postseason nears.

The game of the weekend is now Tufts vs. Amherst, a matchup which will likely decide the top seed for the NESCAC tournament one way or the other. Barring an upset down the road, a win against Tufts should cement Amherst’s first place finish in the regular season, but a loss will give Trinity that title to lose. For Tufts, winning this game will do them a huge favor when the NCAA selection show comes around. In the shorter term, there are two huge questions that Tufts will answer today 1.) Will they get home-court advantage in the playoffs? If they lose, that may be out of their hands. 2.) Is this team a true contender in the NESCAC tournament? Sure, the Jumbos have beat up some of the bottom teams in the division, but besides Amherst, they’ve lost to the next three best teams. They have the talent, but can the put it together? This is a must win confidence-wise for Tufts.

Here’s what you’ve got to look forward to:

 

Two to Watch

1.) Guard Connor Green ’16 (Amherst): Whether or not he has been playing well leading into a game at Tufts, whenever Amherst rolls into Medford, Connor Green gets hot. Last year he put up 29 in the playoffs at Tufts in an incredible shooting performance. Green is a streaky shooter, but Amherst is going to need him on Saturday in order to maintain their position atop the NESCAC.

2.) Guard Tyler Rowe ‘19 (Connecticut College): Rowe will take on the Ephs who will be coming off a battle against Wesleyan, and it is vital that he gets going. Rowe has been an energizer for the Camels all year long, and he must continue his high level of play against Williams. If Rowe can’t get going, Conn is going to have a tough time keeping up with Kyle Scadlock ’19 and Dan Aronowitz ’17 from Williams.

Potential Game of the Week

Amherst vs. Tufts, Medford, MA, 2:00pm

Like I said above, this is a must win for Tufts. Talent-wise, these teams are very even overall, but each team excels in different areas. They both play one post and 4 guards, and they both look to run and gun. I’m excited to see who controls the pace of the game. The game will be decided by three sets of matchups:

Connor Green '16 exploded for 29 last year in Cousens Gym. Can he do it again? (Courtesy of Amherst College Athletics)
Connor Green ’16 exploded for 29 last year in Cousens Gym. Can he do it again? (Courtesy of Amherst College Athletics)

The matchups of the bigger guards on both Amherst and Tufts will certainly be intriguing: Johnny McCarthy ‘18 (6’5”/205lbs.) vs. Vinny Pace ’18 (6’5”/185lbs.); Jeff Racy ’17 (6’5/210lbs.) vs. Stephen Haladyna ‘16 (6’5”/180lbs.); Connor Green ‘16 (6’4”/205) vs. Ryan Spadaford ’16 (6’4”/200lbs.). The key matchup here is McCarthy and Pace. McCarthy is known as one of the best on-ball defenders in the league, and he is just as long as Pace. If McCarthy can shut down Pace, Amherst has a very good shot to win this game. However, I think all three matchups are pretty even, and I don’t think that any one of these six players is going to completely take over the game. If there’s one who I might consider a sleeper here, it’s Spadaford. He’s been pretty consistent throughout the season on the boards as well as scoring the ball. Look for him to punish Amherst if they sag off him on defense. Overall, however, I think there is a little more firepower amongst the Amherst wings here, and like I noted above, Green has shown his ability to completely take over the game in Cousens Gym before.

Advantage: Amherst

David George '17 will have his hands full down low against Tom Palleschi '17. (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)
Tufts has to get Tom Palleschi ’17 involved early and often against Amherst. (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)
Amherst is going to need David George '17 to step up in this one. (Courtesy of Amherst College Athletics)
Amherst is going to need David George ’17 to step up in this one. (Courtesy of Amherst College Athletics)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I’ve waited for the low post matchup between Tom Palleschi ’17 and David George ’17 all season, and finally the day is here. Palleschi and George are the top two shot blockers in the league, but Palleschi leads by a full block per game. Palleschi also tops George in rebounds per game and points per game. Though it appears that Palleschi is much more effective by the numbers, one thing to consider is George’s giant leap in productivity in conference play as opposed to his non-conference production. I still think Palleschi can outmaneuver George down low, but this should be a much more intense matchup than the stats might suggest.

Advantage: Tufts

Tufts is going to need a big game from Tarik Smith '17 on Saturday. (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)
Tufts is going to need a big game from Tarik Smith ’17 on Saturday. (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)

The point guard matchup between Tarik Smith ’17 and Jayde Dawson ‘17 will be extremely important to the outcome of this game. With such even matchups on the wings and down low, it is up to the point guards to separate the two teams. Dawson is Amherst’s top in-conference scorer, largely due to his demonstrated ability to get to the free throw line. However, Smith not only gets to the line more than Dawson, but he actually blows Dawson’s 27 free-throw attempts out of the water with a jaw-dropping 47 attempts. Tufts has played one more conference game than Amherst, but regardless, if Amherst allows Smith to get to the hoop as frequently as he has been doing so, Tufts is going to pull the upset here. When Smith drives, he creates open perimeter shots for Pace, Spadaford, and Haladyna. Last weekend against Bates, Palleschi even got in on the three-ball action, knocking down 3/3 shots from deep. I don’t think Dawson can stop Smith from creating, so I’m giving the matchup win to Smith.

Advantage: Tufts

This game is going to be a barnburner. After facing Trinity las tonight, fatigue could potentially factor in for Tufts, but it could also prove to be beneficial that they played a tough game last might. Maybe the ex-Lord Jeffs will be sluggish after their blowout win in Lewiston, but maybe the opportunity to get some rhythm shooting the ball is all Amherst needed. I know Tufts took a beating yesterday, but that’s exactly why I think they are going to bounce back and take down Amherst.

Prediction: Amherst 84 – Tufts 87

 

More Predictions

Bowdoin 80 – Middlebury 74

Colby 83 – Hamilton 76

Trinity 78 – Bates 64

Williams 80 – Connecticut College 82

(My predictions on the snowed out games from yesterday are still the same)

Conference Rankings Start to Materialize: Weekend Preview 2/5 (Part 1)

Dan Aronowitz looks to lead Williams past Wesleyan this weekend. (Courtesy of Williams College Athletics)
Dan Aronowitz ’17 looks to lead Williams past Wesleyan this weekend. (Courtesy of Williams College Athletics)

A couple of the games tonight are between teams on opposite ends of the spectrum, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be any tightly contested games. The game to watch is without a doubt Trinity at Tufts, as both teams are still vying for the top spot in the NESCAC, but Colby-Middlebury and Williams-Wesleyan could also be pretty great games. Some familiar names will lead their teams to easy victories, while other teams will only have a chance if their stars can put up the big numbers I’m anticipating. Here’s what’s in store for the weekend:

Friday Games

Bowdoin vs. Hamilton, Clinton, NY, 7:00 pm

As we all know, Lucas Hausman ‘15 is the top scorer in the NESCAC. Bowdoin relies heavily on Hausman’s average of 26.7 PPG in conference play. In fact, in their two biggest blowout conference losses against Tufts and Trinity, Hausman has only scored just 11 and 14 points respectively. Conversely, in their two conference wins against Bates and Colby, he scored 42 and then 35 points. On the other side, Hamilton is coming off their first conference win in which they took down Middlebury on a last second layup by Andrew Groll ’19. Groll has turned into Hamilton’s star in conference play, putting up 11.7 PPG and pulling down 8.7 RPG. Despite Groll’s aggressive play down low, I don’t see anyone stopping Hausman, and I don’t think the Continentals can keep up with Bowdoin’s scoring.

Prediction: Bowdoin 79 – Hamilton 65

Colby vs. Middlebury, Middlebury VT, 7:00 pm

After Colby got out to a hot 10-1 start, they have now dropped to 13-7 due to their 1-5 conference performance. However, this record is a bit deceiving because aside from getting blown out by Tufts, their other conference losses are by margins of just four, nine, two and three. Additionally, Colby beat Amherst by two up in Waterville this past weekend. Meanwhile, Middlebury is 4-2 in conference with no win by a difference of more than 10 points and a total differential of just three points in their conference losses to Conn College and Hamilton. I like Middlebury in this one because of their ability to win close contests, but I would not at all be surprised if Colby pulled out the W. Look for Matt St. Amour ’17 to carry the Panthers to victory.

Prediction: Colby 74 – Middlebury 77

Amherst vs. Bates, Lewiston, ME, 7:00 pm

At face value, this looks like the easiest matchup of the day to predict, but then again, I never would have picked Colby to beat Amherst a couple weeks ago. However, in that game, Amherst shot a measly 33.3% from the field, 26.5% from deep, and a dreadful 52.9% from the free throw line. I don’t see any way that Amherst shoots that poorly again, and they proved that last weekend by shooting 50.9% from the field against Trinity’s usually stifling defense. For Bates to win this one, they are going to need to shoot the lights out, something they have not done consistently in NESCAC play.

Prediction: Amherst 84 – Bates 64

Williams vs. Wesleyan, Middletown, CT, 7:00 pm

Williams and Wesleyan are sitting at just about the same spot in the NESCAC standings right now, but Wesleyan is definitely higher in the power rankings considering they’ve reeled off three straight conference wins against Tufts, Bates and Conn College. This is a huge chance for Williams to make a jump in the standings, and with tough games against Conn College and Tufts coming up, they will have a tough task if they want to grab home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. If Dan Aronowitz ’17 doesn’t have a huge game, the Ephs are in trouble. I’m expecting Joseph Kuo ’17 and Rashid Epps ’16 to dominate the paint and lead the Cardinals to victory.

Prediction: Williams 68 – Wesleyan 79

Game of the Night

Trinity vs. Tufts, Medford, MA, 7:00 pm

This tilt is the game of the week, however, if Tufts wins, the game between Amherst and Tufts on Saturday could be the battle for first place in the NESCAC. Tufts and Trinity couldn’t be two more opposite teams. Trinity is a defensive powerhouse that leads the NESCAC in PPG allowed at just 68.0 PPG, while the Jumbos are an offensive juggernaut, leading the NESCAC with 87.4 PPG. On the flip side, Trinity scores just 76.5 PPG while Tufts gives up 73.3 PPG, which leads me to believe that this game is going to come down to Trinity’s ability to slow down the Tufts attack. There are two big matchups to focus on in this one:

1.) Tom Palleschi ’17 vs. Ed Ogundeko ’17 – these two big guys are two of the best in the conference. They average about the same number of PPG in conference games (14.7 and 14.5 respectively). Palleschi edges Ogundeko in blocks and Ogundeko tops Palleschi in rebounds. This should be a VERY enticing matchup.

2.) Vinny Pace ’18 vs. Shay Ajayi ‘16/Rick Naylor ’16

I’m honestly not sure who is going to guard Pace due to the matchup problems that the four-guard lineup of Tufts produces. The extra 25 pounds that Ajayi has on Pace could wear him down throughout the game, but I think that this will allow Stephen Haladyna ’16, a threat in the paint, to take advantage of his height advantage over Naylor. If Naylor takes the challenge, Pace’s height and length will allow him to shoot over Naylor with relative ease. I expect Trinity to throw multiple looks at Pace, but either way, he presents matchup problems.

At the end of the day, I don’t see Trinity being able to keep up with the scoring of Tufts unless Palleschi gets into foul trouble. If that happens, Trinity could definitely win this game. Otherwise, I think the Jumbos give themselves the opportunity to play Amherst for first place on Saturday.

Prediction: Trinity 75 – Tufts 86

Eight NESCAC Stats You Should Know

Neil Fuller '17 gets mulled by a trio of Ephs. And this has nothing to do with the eight facts you need to know. (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)
Neil Fuller ’17 gets mauled by a trio of Ephs. And this has nothing to do with the eight facts you need to know. (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)

The amount of information you can get from basketball statistics is great. Though the NESCAC is not part of the advanced statistics revolution that has helped change the way the NBA is played (I don’t think NESCAC gyms are capable of having the advanced SportsVU cameras that are in NBA arenas), old school statistics like rebounds, blocks and points still are really helpful. Some of these stats you are probably generally aware of, while others might surprise you.

1. Lucas Hausman ’16 (Bowdoin): 25.6 PPG

The defending NESCAC Player of the Year has taken it to a whole other level this season. Hausman is the only player this season averaging above 20.0 PPG, and Hausman is managing to do it while having shooting percentages of 47.8/42.5/87.5.  He makes 6.8 free throws per game, nearly two whole free throws more than the next guy. While I don’t have official numbers on it, I would guess that Hausman also leads the NESCAC by a MILE in number of free throws off of three pointers, a fact that I know drives opposing coaches absolutely bonkers. The biggest difference in his game from a year ago is his three point shooting. He is making 2.2 threes per game this season, up from 1.0 per game last season while also upping his percentage of threes made from 31.8 percent to 42.5 percent.

2. FG% Defense of Wesleyan (37.5 percent) and (Trinity 37.7 percent)

Those marks put Wesleyan third and Trinity sixth in the country. Pretty impressive for the NESCAC to have two teams in the Top 10. I was a little surprised to see how highly these two ranked, honestly. I feel like both have taken a step back from their defense last season, but it might just be that both are playing at a faster pace. When these two met earlier in the year, Trinity shot 41.3 percent on the way to beating Wesleyan who shot just 32.1 percent.

3. 3PT FG% Defense of Amherst (26.3 percent)

That number for the No Mascots is the best in the country, and I think I know the reason why. All of that length on the perimeter, from Johnny McCarthy ’18 to Michael Riopel ’18 to Jeff Racy ’17, bothers shooters who can’t shake free. That Amherst is tied for fourth overall in the NESCAC in field goal percentage is a problem, though.

4. Ed Ogundeko ’17 (Trinity): 19.8 Rebounds per 40 Minutes

Ogundeko is a veritable vacuum on the boards, combining the width to box anybody out with a knack for the ball. He is blowing everybody else out of the water in terms of rebounds per 40 minutes. Matt Daley ’16 is second with 14.8 rebounds per 40 minutes, a far far cry from Ogundeko. He grabs 26.4 percent of Trinity’s total rebounds, and I would love to be able to isolate just when he is on the floor in order to fully get the picture of how good he is on the boards.

5. Matt St. Amour ’17 (Middlebury): NESCAC 2PT FG%: 34.0 percent

St. Amour is the second leading scorer in NESCAC play, but he is doing it mostly because of his three point shooting ability. He is shooting 47.4 percent from three while making half of his shots from the field there in NESCAC games. That St. Amour is making the harder (at least ostensibly harder) shots at a much higher rate probably says more about his ability to finish at the rim than anything. Though he’s obviously healthy, St. Amour still lacks explosiveness because of his ACL injury, and he often shoots floaters instead of trying to attack big men at the rim. Many of those floaters aren’t going in.

6. Jack Dwyer ’18 (Hamilton): FT%: 84.8 percent

This one is notable because Dwyer has struggled mightily to shoot the ball from three (26.3 percent) but not from the free throw line. Also notable is that Dwyer isn’t the only point guard with such a big chasm between those two percentages. Tyler Rowe ’19 is shooting 85.7 percent on FTs and 31.7 percent on 3PTs. I’m not sure the reason for the huge disparity, though if I was to guess it would be because Rowe and Dwyer are shooting threes off the dribble since they are point guards with the ball in their hands a lot.

7. Amherst Point Differential: +13.9 PPG

That number is the best in the NESCAC with Trinity the second best at +11.0 PPG. I don’t put that much weight into point differentials because of the disparity of non-conference schedules and the ability for one or two blowouts to warp the statistic given the low amount of games NESCAC teams have.

8. NESCAC Winning Percentage: .745

For the season, NESCAC teams are 102-35 in non-conference games (I excluded all non-conference CBB and Little 3 games in my calculations), a pretty darn good mark overall. However, it is in line with past seasons for the NESCAC. The winning percentage for the NESCAC against non-NESCAC teams last season was a lofty .769, which is probably a big reason why the league ended up getting four bids. In 2013-2014, NESCAC teams had a winning percentage of .718. Note, I also excluded NCAA tournament games in those calculations. I wanted to do more years, but I knew that I needed to get some sleep, also. Bottom line, the NESCAC is doing very well once again in their non-conference games.

 

Take Your Places: Power Ranks 2/3

Amherst is starting to find their groove. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)
Amherst is starting to find their groove. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

Well, I guess the Amherst players didn’t like that I dropped them from the top spot last week, because they waltzed into the enemy territory of Hartford and traipsed out with the victory. Elsewhere in the rankings, Hamilton finally got angry about their low seeding and decided to pull off the upset. Even Bowdoin’s OT win could be considered an upset if you’re going by the power rankings (and honestly, is there a better metric out there?) And I’m sure, beyond a doubt, that in all of these instances a perceived slight by yours truly was the one and only motivating factor.

1. #11 Amherst (17-3, 5-1, Last week: 2)

Amherst made a big statement in that win Saturday. Though the final was 89-82, Amherst basically lead wire-to-wire and jumped out to a 12-1 lead to start the game after Trinity scored the first point on a free throw. All season long I’ve believed that they are the most talented team, and the only question is whether they can mesh well enough to win a NESCAC title. I’m still not convinced they can, but if I had to put my money on someone right now, it would be them.

2. Trinity (14-6, 5-1, Last week: 1)

The Bantams fall because of the head-to-head loss to Amherst, but my confidence in them hasn’t waned. Prior to last weekend’s game with Amherst, the Merchant Marine loss is curious, but the distribution of minutes makes me think that Coach James Cosgrove was trying to prove a point to his starters, so I’m taking the L with a grain of salt. Now that they’ve lost two in a row, though, they’re officially “battle tested”. Time to stop messing around, and solidify your seeding with a win over Tufts on Friday.

3. #22 Wesleyan (17-4, 4-3, Last week: 3)

The Cardinals stay in the three spot, and I thought about even moving them up to No. 2 because I think they’ve finally found some continuity. Over the last half dozen or so games, Coach Joe Reilly has settled into an eight-man rotation, and that has really become evident in the last two contests. Nathan Krill ’18, Harry Rafferty ’17 and Joe Edmonds ’16 contributed 88.6 percent of the minutes off the bench against Conn College and Emmanuel. Furthermore, Jack Mackey ’16 made seven three-pointers on Monday night, which gives me some confidence that he’s back to close to normal.

4. Tufts (16-4, 5-2, Last week: 5)

The Jumbos hurdle the Middlebury Panthers because of Middlebury’s slip up, not Tufts’ win over Bates. It’s really tough to pick one over the other, especially since their head-to-head meeting went down to a three-point attempt at the buzzer in OT. Both of these teams still have the Amherst-Trinity gauntlet ahead of them. Those two games will either make or break both teams’ seasons.

5. Middlebury (12-8, 4-2, Last week: 4)

Combine the tough early season start with a depressing upset loss at Hamilton and it makes you wonder whether the mid-season hot streak and 4-2 conference record were an anomaly. I don’t think that’s necessarily so, and I believe there’s a huge gap between the top five and bottom six, but still, the Panthers have question marks. They need to get Zach Baines ’19, who’s been out sick, healthy once more, because he is a spark on both ends of the floor. Since January 4, Baines has played 26.4 mpg. That would rank in the top 25 over the course of a whole season, so his absence shouldn’t be brushed off. Oh, I’d also like to point out that Matt St. Amour ’17 went OFF for 32 points at Keene St. last night, the place where St. Amour’s season ended with an ACL tear two seasons ago. Take that, unforgiving Keene St. hardwood.

6. Williams (13-7, 3-3, Last week: 8)

They’ve beaten everyone they should, and lost to everyone they should – at least when it comes to NESCAC opponents. The Ephs are 3-0 against Colby, Bowdoin and Hamilton, and 0-5 against Wesleyan, Amherst, Trinity and Middlebury. Unfortunately, if that trend continues, Williams will drop match ups with Wesleyan and Tufts over the next two weekends and finish 5-5. I’d be surprised if things shook out so neatly. They’re not playing particularly well of late, and some of the first-years might be hitting a bit of a wall. Still, for now they hold onto the No. 6 spot.

7. Colby (13-7, 1-5, Last week: 6)

I have no idea where to rank teams 7-11. Colby just lost to Bowdoin, who’s gotten crushed by Trinity and Husson in the last week and a half, but Colby also took Husson to OT. Bates has gone through the ringer in recent weeks, losing to Bowdoin, Middlebury, Conn, Wesleyan and Tufts, but they also beat Colby in early January. Conn has dropped three straight, but they do have wins over Bates and Middlebury in the bank. Meanwhile, Hamilton’s over there jumping up and down that they just beat the Panthers (Sorry, guys, but a two-point win isn’t going to be enough to shoot you up through the ranks). I’ve still got the Mules above the other Maine teams because of their experience and explosive offense. They need to be healthy, though, as we know, and need just a little production from the bench – at least defensively. Chris Hudnut ’16 is still having his minutes limited, and it’s possible he just won’t be 100 percent this season.

8. Bowdoin (9-8, 2-4, Last week: 9)

As cool as the 20-point breakout from Jack Bors ’19 was against Colby, I don’t think we’re going to see that repeated again this season, which means the Polar Bears are going to be fighting for a playoff spot. However, Lucas Hausman ’16 gives them a shot to win any game if he gets hot, and that’s mainly why I have them at No. 8. Hausman got better as the season went along last year. That might be happening again. In his last eight games, he’s had at least 26 points six times, 30-plus four times, and 42 one game.

9. Conn College (12-8, 3-4, Last week: 7)

This might be a little low, because I like the Camels, and I think they’re going to the playoffs this season. Even though I have Colby ahead of them, I could easily see the Mules slipping up down the stretch and falling short of catching Conn. The Camels have played all the good teams tough, except for Trinity – they beat Middlebury, lost to Amherst by two on the road, lost to Tufts by two at home and by eight on the road at Wesleyan. They have a great mix of stardom (Zuri Pavlin ’17), toughness (Dan Janel ’17), and talent from the youngsters (David Labossiere ’19 and Tyler Rowe ’19).

10. Bates (10-10, 2-5, Last week: 10)

No changes in the bottom two this week. The Bobcats haven’t won a tough game in awhile. They beat Maine-Farmington, who is 2-16, last night, Hamilton on January 15 and Colby on January 8, but have sprinkled in five losses during that span. The weird thing is that the Bobcats have beaten Husson twice this season. Husson is 15-4, and even though the North Atlantic Conference isn’t exactly the ACC, Husson has beaten Colby and Bowdoin. Even weirder, Bates was one of the four NESCAC teams to best Babson early this season. Still, they seem to be regressing right now. Not the time for that to happen.

11. Hamilton (10-10, 1-5, Last week: 11)

The Continentals have a little something going right now with wins over Ithaca, Keystone and Middlebury in their last five games, but Keystone has four wins and Ithaca isn’t what it once was. The win over Middlebury is legit, but it came at home, and they will need to sweep Bowdoin and Colby this weekend and then take to the road and beat either Amherst or Trinity to get into the playoffs.

No Mascot, No Problem: Stock Report 2/1

Marcus Delpeche '17 and Tom Palleschi '17 share a moment Saturday. (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)
Marcus Delpeche ’17 and Tom Palleschi ’17 share a moment Saturday. (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)

Amherst cemented its status as the top dog in the NESCAC with Saturday’s commanding victory over Trinity 89-82. The Purple and White led comfortably 84-70 with 1:31 left to play before the Bantams made a late push to make things a little dicey at the end. Trinity didn’t have quite enough offense to stay with the shot-making Amherst team. The game was a very physical one, with the teams combining for more than 50 fouls by the end of the game. When they make their threes, Amherst is hard to beat, and they made nine against the Bantams. The win pushes Amherst to 5-1 in conference and 16-3 overall.

Leading the way were Jayde Dawson ’18 and Johnny McCarthy ’18 with 45 points combined, 26 of those in the 2nd half. The two also combined for nine turnovers versus six assists, reinforcing that as talented players as they are, they are equally capable of sinking the team with their play. Connor Green ’16 was quiet finishing with just seven points on six shots. In times past, when Green was having a quiet game he would force the issue from three-point land, but on Saturday he let his younger teammates take the lead.

The win was a great one for Amherst, and the Purple and White now have the inside shot on hosting the NESCAC tournament. However, they are still a ways away from that happening, and the problems with this team are not going away. I think that Amherst drops another NESCAC in the coming weeks, and with Middlebury and Tufts still on the schedule, multiple losses would not be a huge surprise.

Stock Up

Point Guard Jack Bors ’19 (Bowdoin)

The Polar Bears survived in overtime against Colby in large part because of Bors coming out of nowhere to score 20 points. The 5’9″ lefty reminds Bowdoin fans of Bryan Hurley ’15 because of his toughness. Despite barely playing all season, Bors was not lacking in confidence the moment he entered into the game. Coming into Saturday, he had not scored more than four points in just one game. He wasn’t at all part of the rotation until Saturday, not playing in three of Bowdoin’s NESCAC games. Bors got time against the Mules in part because of a strong performance at the end of the blowout loss for Bowdoin against Trinity last Saturday. Coach Tim Gilbride wanted to shake things up, and with the early injury to Matt Palecki ’16, he rolled the dice with Bors. Bowdoin needed a spark to hold off the Mules in a battle that was big for both teams. Bors now will see if he can make Saturday’s performance carry over to the rest of the season.

Power Forward Rashid Epps ’16 (Wesleyan)

In a game where BJ Davis ’16 scored his 1,000 point, Epps led the way with 19 points as Wesleyan got past Conn College 87-79. Early in the season, Epps was fazed out of the offense, but he has come back in the past few weeks with very strong performances. In NESCAC games, Epps is averaging 12.3 ppg while making shots at an awesome 64.0 percent rate. A little undersized for a power forward at 6’4″, Epps is powerful enough to gain positioning against anybody. The Cardinals won again to make their NESCAC winning streak three games now. At 4-3 they are above .500 for the first time all season and suddenly are eyeing a home playoff game. Committing to getting Epps the ball is a big reason why.

Center Chris Hudnut ’16 (Colby)

One of the best players in the league, Hudnut’s past season and a half has been tough to watch because of various injuries knocking him out of games. Hudnut had not scored above 20 points in a game since December 28, missing three games since then and laboring through the rest. He looked like his usual self Saturday, dominating in the second half and scoring 33 points on just 17 shots. Twenty-four of his points came in the second half. The problem is that Colby still lost to drop to 1-5 in the NESCAC. Getting into the playoffs is not going to be easy. They lose the head-to-head tie breaker against Bates and Bowdoin, and their one win against Amherst does them no favors. The thing is, if Hudnut plays as well as he did Saturday, they have more than enough to win at least two of their final four games and give themselves a shot of making the NESCAC tournament. And if they do get in, they would scare the living heck out of whichever team would draw them in the first round.

Stock Down

Bates

The Bobcats have now lost four straight NESCAC games, all of them by double digits. Trying to figure out what is wrong with Bates is not easy, but I think it’s just a problem of the pieces not fitting well together. Mike Boornazian ’16 has struggled to find his footing as the lead man. He is averaging 15.1 ppg in NESCAC games, but he is shooting 35.2 percent from the field and 26.2 percent from three-point land. As a team the Bobcats have the worst three-point shooting percentage at 32.0 percent, and the number drops below 30 percent when you look just at NESCAC games. Obviously the loss of Graham Safford ’15 has hurt, but it is also the absence of key perimeter players Billy Selmon ’15 and Adam Philpott ’15 that is hurting this team. Those two averaged 13.1 ppg combined last year while also being two of the team’s better perimeter defenders. Without glue guys like that, Bates has not been able to do the little things to stay in games.

Conn College’s Second Half

At halftime, the Camels owned an eight-point lead over Wesleyan. However, the wheels fell off on defense as the Cardinals pounded the ball inside and shot 66.7 percent from the field in the second half. Conn College is now 3-4 in the league, but they have led at halftime for three of their losses. Blowing a second half lead is a sign of the Camels youth most likely. Closing games out in the NESCAC is hard, and Wesleyan beat Conn College on Saturday because of their experience in important games. For example, in the second half playing at home, Conn College made just ONE free throw the entire second half, going 1-6 from the charity stripe. These games are learning experiences for Conn College, and that they have them this season with so many talented youngsters is a good thing.

Middlebury Scoring

The Panthers, playing without forward Zach Baines ’19, absolutely let one get away on Saturday. A Matt St. Amour ’17 layup with 6:04 left in the game made the score 62-58 in Middlebury’s favor. The Panthers didn’t score again! Hamilton scored with one second left to win 64-62. Middlebury blew a 15 point second half lead, and the lack of scoring was tough to watch. Going cold for that long down the stretch is a freaky thing, and it won’t happen again. Middlebury relies on a balanced and deep attack, and it is usual St. Amour who hits the bucket when the Panthers absolutely need one. However, it didn’t happen on Saturday. The issue is the damage is done for the young Panthers. They will have chances to make it up, but in this year’s NESCAC where no victory is an easy one, letting a win like this one slip away hurts.

Move Over, Jumbos: Power Ranks 1/27

Shay Ajayi '16 has his Bantams rolling off of seven straight wins and a 5-0 NESCAC record. (Courtesy of David B. Newman/Trinity Athletics)
Shay Ajayi ’16 has his Bantams rolling off of seven straight wins and a 5-0 NESCAC record. (Courtesy of David B. Newman/Trinity Athletics)

There was a big shake up in this week’s Power Rankings, but that’s become commonplace in the NbN ranks. Why? Because of the five rankings we’ve put out (including this one), we’ve had four different authors. We apologize for the inconsistency, but not for the knowledge.

1. Trinity (14-4, 5-0, Last week: 3)

The last NESCAC team standing a year ago in the NCAA tournament, this year’s edition of the Bantams might be even better. They’ve improved on the offensive end (76.9 ppg vs. 69.6 ppg in 2014-15), and they’re still fierce on defense (36.7 field goal percentage allowed, best in the NESCAC and the nation) despite losing top perimeter defender Hart Gliedman ’15 and center George Papadeas ’15. Eg Ogundeko ’17 is the team’s most improved player. Always a force defensively, Ogundeko has improved his touch by leaps and bounds and is averaging 14.0 points per game. Oh by the way, the Bants are on a seven-game winning streak.

2. Amherst (14-3, 4-1, Last week: 2)

The LJs have had a rough stretch recently, losing two of three, including an out-of-conference blowout loss to Wesleyan and Colby’s only NESCAC win. Nevertheless, Amherst’s talent hasn’t declined, and they have a history of winning. All of the pieces are there. Two point guards, one capable of scoring in bunches, the other a great distributor. Maybe the best perimeter defender in the league in Johnny McCarthy ’18. Connor Green ’16, the seasoned vet. A great rim protector in David George ’17. The best three-pointer shooter in Division-III, per NCAA.com through January 25. And some more solid bench pieces. They’ll be just fine.

3. Wesleyan (15-4, 3-3, Last week: 6)

Welcome back to the top, Wesleyan. The Cardinals fell victim early on to two things: injuries, and NESCAC rules. NESCAC teams are often at a disadvantage early in the season because of the limited contact they get with coaches before firing it up for real. Hence, the season-opening loss to Lyndon St. Then the Cards rattled off 11 straight wins, and though they’ve only gone 4-3 since January 8 against Middlebury, all of those games were against NESCAC teams, and there were no gimmes. Wesleyan played Amherst twice, Trinity, Tufts and Middlebury over that stretch, and when they drew Hamilton and Bates they took care of business as they should. They still haven’t totally found their mojo. As documented many times here, they went through one of the ugliest seven game three-point shooting stretches basketball has ever seen at any level, but they made 13-23 last game against Bates. Coach Joe Reilly just needs to find the right rotation. Should he go back to what worked a year ago with a six-man rotation and Harry Rafferty ’17 and Joe Edmonds ’16 being big factors? Maybe, but Kevin O’Brien ’19, PJ Reed ’18 and Nathan Krill ’18 have become so important this year. I think all of that will work itself out, and the Cardinals have an easier NESCAC slate ahead.

4. Middlebury (11-7, 4-1, Last week: 5)

It’s been a meteoric rise through the ranks for the Panthers, and it makes my heart swell. I won’t lie, I had my doubts after they lost their two best scorers from last year’s team. However, I think in some ways we’re seeing an addition by subtraction scenario. Middlebury a year ago relied on Dylan Sinnickson ’15 and Hunter Merryman ’15 to find a way to shoot them to victory. Now, their team is more balanced and contributions are coming from all over the place. They have two great point guards, and on any night one or the other could tack on double digit points. Matt St. Amour ’17 is obviously a top-notch scorer, and the biggest strength he has that goes overlooked is how good he is at getting to the foul line and scoring from there (though his percentage from there so far is below his standards, he has the third most attempts in the NESCAC). It’s been a revolving front court door, but Coach Jeff Brown is getting solid minutes from whoever steps on the floor, and Middlebury fans will continue to pray that center Matt Daley ’16 is healthy enough to give 25 or so minutes come playoff time.

5. Tufts (13-4, 4-2, Last week: 1)

They have a couple of stars, but I think it’s now fairly evident that they’re not terribly deep. We knew that Tom Palleschi ’17 staying in the game was key already, but that became really evident against Middlebury. Foul trouble kept Palleschi out for much of the second half, and the Panthers actually crushed Tufts on the boards (53-44). Ryan Spadaford ’16 was also out for that game, though, which factors in. The fact is, though, that outside of the starting five, there’s not much of a scoring threat, which is why, I think, you see the starting five from Tufts playing a big chunk of minutes – Spadaford is playing the last at 23.8 mpg. Health will be critical, as will someone stepping up from the bench who can put the ball in the hoop.

6. Colby (12-6, 1-4, Last week: 10)

Colby is a bit like Tufts, only with, in my opinion, a slightly lower ceiling despite more experience. They rely heavily on their starting five, as well, and they absolutely must stay healthy. The Mules went 1-2 in NESCAC games without center Chris Hudnut ’16 over the past week or so (although the win was against Amherst, go figure). Everyone looks good to go as it stands today, and if Colby had pulled off the win over a very good Husson team last night I was considering putting them as high as third in these rankings, despite the 1-4 conference mark. Alas, they couldn’t finish the job, but I still think this team is on the rise.

7. Conn College (12-6, 3-3, Last week: 7)

Another team – and a program – on the rise is the Conn College Camels. Do-it-all man Zuri Pavlin ’17 has seen his numbers decline, but that’s only because he has some really good players around him for the first time. PG Tyler Rowe ’19 is the truth, and in case you missed it he made it into Sports Illustrated in the Faces in the Crowd section a couple weeks ago. Forward David Labossiere ’19 has been just as impressive in his debut campaign. The unsung hero of the group is forward Dan Janel ’17 who has really stepped up his game. Conn’s website doesn’t list weights, but trust me, he’s thick, and he’s ripping down 6.4 boards per game in under 20.o mpg. Pretty nice stats.

8. Williams (12-6, 3-3, Last week: 4)

It’s hard to explain, but I just don’t get a great feeling in my gut about the Ephs this year. Believe me, I will never count them out until it’s all said and done, but I don’t think they have enough to make a deep run in the NESCAC tournament. They hung with Trinity and Middlebury but ultimately lost, and tonight’s game against Amherst will be a big statement one. The loss of point guard Mike Greenman ’17 was unfortunate, because the man that I think will be the best point guard on the roster, Bobby Casey ’19, isn’t quite ready for the limelight, though he hasn’t played badly. Kyle Scadlock ’19 is fun to watch, though, and this team could be electric next year. I hope that Coach Kevin App can get some of his big men, namely Michael Kempton ’19 and Jake Porath ’19, some valuable experience so that there is a center in place to take over for Edward Flynn ’16, otherwise the four-out-one-in system will have to change.

9. Bowdoin (8-7, 1-4, Last week: 9)

I guess losing center John Swords ’15 was a bigger loss than we could have anticipated. Lucas Hausman ’16 and Jack Simonds ’19 are doing everything they can, but it’s not enough. No one else is in double figures on offense, and they’re struggling on defense. I’ll stop here, because I don’t like to make Adam upset.

10. Bates (9-9, 2-4, Last week: 8)

At 2-4 in the NESCAC, they’re still very much alive for a playoff spot, but they have their question marks. Mike Boornazian ’16 is scoring a lot of points, but it’s also taking him a lot of shots to do it. Can someone step up and help him put the ball in the basket? If they can, pairing that with their ability to put two strong rim protectors down low could make for a tough team to beat. After all, this is almost the same team as the one that made an NCAA run last year, albeit one very big difference in the subtraction of Graham Safford ’15.

11. Hamilton (9-9, 0-5, Last week: 11)

We’re sort of treading water with the Continentals right now. Take out the Tufts game, and Hamilton has lost by an average of 5.75 ppg to NESCAC teams, which means that they’re competitive but just no quite able to close the gap. This freshman class is getting a great deal of experience, though. Peter Hoffmann ’19, Andrew Groll ’19 and Michael Grassey ’19 make up a great core, and getting a few NESCAC wins would be huge for their development.

Cardinals Soaring after 2-0 Weekend: Stock Report 1/26

PG BJ Davis '16 is driving the Cardinals on their current revival tour. (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics)
PG BJ Davis ’16 is driving the Cardinals on their current revival tour. (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics)

The NESCAC conference schedule is a fickle beast with only 10 games. With most teams playing twice within a 24-hour span, things can quickly change for a team. Perhaps nobody better exemplifies that than Wesleyan. We already knew after Monday’s blowout victory over Amherst that the Cardinals were not about to fold, despite the 1-3 conference start.

The game Friday night against Tufts was a perfect display of 2015-2016 NESCAC basketball: two veteran teams with different styles going down to the wire with both teams making critical mistakes that changed the outcome. Wesleyan outlasted the Jumbos in overtime to get the win 78-77, but the game only went to overtime because of a gamble that backfired magnificently on Vinny Pace ’19. With five seconds left and the score 70-68 in favor of Tufts, Tarik Smith ’17 missed his second free throw. Wesleyan did not call timeout and quickly looked to outlet the ball to BJ Davis ’16. Pace was aggressive and went for the steal on the outlet pass, but he was a split-second late and fouled Davis instead. Of course, Davis made both to send the game to overtime.

The win over Tufts was huge, obviously, and the Cardinals kept up their momentum the next day by cruising to a win over Bates. After pounding the ball inside vs. Tufts, Wesleyan shot 56.1 percent from three and made 13 threes as a team in the 82-67 win – assuaging some fears about their recently horrendous three point shooting.

Now the Cardinals are ranked #25 in the D3Hoops.com Top 25, Davis just won NESCAC Player of the Week Honors, and Coach Joe Reilly is the Hoopdirt.com D3 Coach of the Week. Not a terrible weekend.

Looking ahead, Wesleyan has tough but winnable games left against Williams and Conn College. Then they play the bottom three teams in the conference (Hamilton, Bowdoin and Colby). No win in the NESCAC is an easy one this year, but the Cardinals are feeling way better about where they are right now than they did just one week ago.

Stock Up

Trinity

Oh, who is that team alone at the top of the NESCAC standings? That would be the Bantams, who “just win baby win.” Guys like small forward Eric Gendron ’18 are giving the Bantams a much more dynamic offensive attack. That smashmouth defense is not quite as fearsome as in years past, but the Bantams still get after it on that end. As usual, the Bantams are getting no love on a national level as they are not in the Top 25 of the D3Hoops.com poll. Why a team that came within a shot of making the Final Four last season and is undefeated halfway through the conference season is unranked is beyond me. The Bantams have some questionable early season losses, I get that. That is almost by design, however. Coach Jim Cosgrove plays a long bench in order to get his secondary guys experience, and sometimes that means the Bantams lose a suspect game. Still, the Bantams are 15-4 and should be ranked.

Colby’s Toughness

The Mules badly needed a win this weekend, and they got one against Amherst. What impresses me the most is that the Mules got close to beating Trinity on Friday night, also. After losing a tough game in the weekend opener, it would have been easy for the Mules to not show up against the most talented team in the league. Instead it was an inspired performance with Chris Hudnut ’16 fighting through his recent injuries to lead the way with 17 points. Starting point guard Luke Westman ’16 fouled out of the game with nearly nine minutes left, but backup John Gallego ’16 had eight points in the second half, including the free throws down the stretch that helped secure the victory. Sure, Colby benefited from bad shooting from Amherst to get the win, but you still have to give all the credit to the veteran Mule squad.

Conn College Forward David Labossiere ’19 

The Camels split this weekend, falling just short against Tufts on Saturday but taking care of Bates handily. On Friday night Labossiere scored a career high 23 points to lead the way. On Saturday, he was quieter with 13 points, nine of them in the second half. Labossiere is great at getting to the rim, combining the leaping ability to get clean looks with the balance to finish those looks easily. He isn’t shooting a lot of threes (less than 2.0 per game), but he is making over 50 percent of them. In NESCAC games, Labossiere is third on the team with 12.3 ppg. The balance that the Camels have been playing with recently is exceptional and a big reason why teams have struggled to slow them down. The Camels are going to be a handful for the rest of the season, and they project to be a major player over the next couple of years.

Stock Down

Bowdoin Defense

Between the second half against Amherst Friday night and the first half against Trinity Saturday, the Polar Bears allowed 107 points in the equivalent of a 40-minute game. Amherst scored 56 in the second half by crashing the offensive boards and taking advantage of their size. The Bantams scored 51 in the first half because they made every open three that Bowdoin gave them. Defending the three point line has been a problem for this team all year. What is just as frustrating is the continued lapses in defending simple pick and rolls or allowing players easy back cuts. Given the makeup of this team, Bowdoin is never going to be a good defensive team, but their performance in those two halves is inexcusable. At 1-4, the Polar Bears need to figure it out very soon, or else they risk missing the NESCAC tournament all together.

Amherst Point Guard Jayde Dawson ’18 

Dawson really looked like he had turned the corner as the point guard for Amherst. Heading into Saturday, he had shot above 50 percent in three straight games while leading the team in scoring twice. Then Saturday against Colby, his shot went cold. He finished 3-18 from the field (2-11 from three), and Coach Dave Hixon played Reid Berman ’17 over him down the stretch because of his ineffectiveness. Dawson is still going to start and be the guy in the game at the end of most games, but Saturday drove home how limited of a point guard he is. If his shot isn’t falling, Dawson is capable of changing his approach and finding ways to get his teammates the ball … A.K.A. be a point guard. He is a scorer first and a passer second. Not surprisingly, Dawson finished Saturday with zero assists. Almost as damning in a weird way is that he had zero turnovers meaning he continued to take shots instead of trying to create for his teammates.

On the Road Again: Weekend Preview 1/22

Our forerunner PantherNation (still alive and well in the Twitterverse but survived only by us in the blogosphere) astutely points out that the first two weekends of NESCAC play have been marked by home teams dominating. Getting an idea of how much home court advantage helps teams is hard in part because in the NESCAC teams usually play against each other once a season. It most certainly isn’t worth 53 points, the point differential between Saturday’s blowout win for Amherst over Wesleyan and Monday’s reversal of Wesleyan destroying Amherst.It obviously matters though. NESCAC teams went 32-23 at home in conference games a season ago.

This weekend the top three teams in our Power Rankings (Trinity, Amherst, and Tufts) all head out on the road. Amherst and Trinity are travel partners so they head to Maine in order to visit Colby and Bowdoin. Tufts, who already played on the road last weekend and split against Middlebury and Hamilton, travels through Connecticut for games vs. Conn College and Wesleyan.

Trinity and Amherst are the teams to keep an eye on. Both are perfect at home, but Trinity has a 4-4 record away from home and Amherst is 5-2. Neither Colby or Bowdoin appears to be a huge burden to get past, but both teams have players capable of putting the team on their back with hot shooting. Winning on the road is all important for securing what matters: a home NESCAC playoff game.

Two to Watch

1. Shooting Guard Lucas Hausman ’16 (Bowdoin): It’s a huge weekend for the Polar Bears needing at least a split against Trinity and Amherst in order to avoid falling to 1- in conference. It took 40 points from Hausman against Bates to get Bowdoin their one conference win. He will probably need somewhere close to 30 in a game this weekend. The problem is that Amherst with Johnny McCarthy ’18 and Trinity with Shay Ajayi ’16 both have defenders capable of at least bothering Hausman. Last season Hausman averaged 20 points in two losses to Amherst and had 30 in an overtime loss at Trinity. Hausman is prone to sometimes get off to slow starts, but Bowdoin can’t afford to fall behind in either of their games this weekend. While he is averaging a phenomenal 25.1 PPG this season, those numbers will start to look meaningless if Bowdoin keeps losing games.

2. Point Guard Shawn Strickland ’18 (Bates): In four wins over just more than a week at the beginning of January, Strickland scored in double figures for 4 consecutive games. That was when Bates played their best basketball with close wins over Brandeis, Babson, and Colby. In the three games since then, Strickland has been held to single digits in each game, and the Bobcats have gone 1-2. The Bobcats do not have enough perimeter scoring without Strickland making shots to keep up with teams. Josh Britten ’16 has been great making threes, but he is a one dimensional player. Mike Boornazian ’16 is good, but his efficiency has suffered without Graham Safford ’15 to take pressure off him. Strickland needs to be the guy scoring 10-15 points per game. He also needs to push the pace so that Bates can get easy buckets in transition.

Tyler Rowe '19 lead Conn College into a big home NESCAC weekend. (Courtesy of Conn College Athletics)
Tyler Rowe ’19 leads Conn College into a big home NESCAC weekend. (Courtesy of Conn College Athletics)

Two Storylines to Follow

1. Wesleyan drawing a line in the sand.

I have a suspicion that this is right where Wesleyan wants to be. Last year the Cardinals hot streak started when they had their backs against the wall. They were 3-5 heading into the last weekend of the season with road games against Hamilton and Williams. They won both those in blowouts before winning three games in a row on the road.

Against Amherst on Friday night, Wesleyan looked as bad as any team can. From the very first possession of the game when Amherst got two straight offensive rebounds before Connor Green hit a three, the Cardinals looked like a defeated team. Nobody on offense was trying to attack the paint, and if they did, they were getting swallowed up by the Amherst defenders. Wesleyan was able to hold Amherst scoreless for a period of 4 minutes and 46 seconds in the first half, but they were only able to cut a 24 point deficit to 20 points in that span.

I didn’t watch the game on Monday night I’ll admit, but the statement from Wesleyan was a strong one. The game means more for the Cardinals than it does Amherst. A key for Wesleyan was having a combined 16 steals and blocks. They need to use that defensive energy to get them going on the other end of the floor. Both Bates and Tufts are tough opponents, but the Cardinals get them at home. Maybe just maybe, the Wesleyan crowds that came out in full force down the stretch last year return this weekend and help carry the Cardinals to a big weekend.

2. Who leads the way for Amherst.

This storyline has been one developing all season. We noted back on December 2nd that Connor Green’s ’16 struggles could cause problems on such a talented team. Even with the 3-0 conference start, Amherst still has a lot of uncertainty surrounding them. Green seemed to break out when he had 39 points and made big shot after big shot in Amherst’s double-OT win over Babson on December 10th. Yet, in the eight games since then, Green is averaging 11.4 PPG on 33.7% shooting. 53.5% of all the shots Green has taken are from beyond the three point line, though that is just up slightly from last year when 51.4% of his shots were threes.

For a little while in the beginning of January, Amherst was incredibly balanced with no player scoring 20 points in four straight games. In the past two games, Jayde Dawson ’18 has stepped to the forefront running the offense with authority from the point guard position. Way too often Dawson forces the issue, either launching a three early in the shot clock or driving with no real plan of where to go with the ball. At the same time, he has made some big shots this season. Either him or Green is the player most capable of carrying the offense. However, each of them is equally capable of sinking Amherst in any given game. This issue isn’t going away, but keep an eye on it this weekend.

Jaquann Starks '16 is ready to roll. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)
Jaquann Starks ’16 is ready to roll. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)

Friday Game Predictions

Check back in first thing Saturday morning for predictions on the Saturday and Sunday games.

Trinity (12-4, 3-0) at Colby (11-4, 0-3)

You might not remember, but Colby  without Patrick Stewart ’16 or Chris Hudnut ’16 came VERY close to beating Trinity in the NESCAC quarterfinals, ultimately falling 66-63. We don’t know how healthy Stewart is after he came off the bench in a non-conference game this week. Having him healthy gives Colby a chance to spring the upset. It will take a bevy of threes from the Mules to do it, though.

How Trinity reacts to the long bus ride up north is probably the deciding factor in this one. A Bantam team ready to play has too much size for the Mules to handle. Another key is Rick Naylor ’16, Eric Gendron ’18, and Jaquann Starks ’16 making threes. to open up the inside. One person who should not be shooting threes is Shay Ajayi ’16. He is shooting 25.7% on threes. He is best attacking the rim, even if he is out of control at times when he does so. The Bantams need to be upset alert, but they will get the job done.

Prediction: Trinity over Colby 72-63

Tufts (12-3, 3-1) at Wesleyan (13-4, 1-3)

The Jumbos started strong in conference last year also, but they stumbled later on in their schedule. That strong start was fueled in large part by Tarik Smith ’17 shooting the ball at an unsustainable level. This season Smith has been playing well in a secondary role to Vincent Pace ’18. Often Smith will pass up an open three to drive into the paint. That attacking mentality has paid off to the tune of Smith making the 2nd most free throws per game in the NESCAC. It sometimes feels like Smith is moving in slow motion, but he is always in control. He has to take pressure off of Pace in this one.

The Jumbos are hoping to get Ryan Spadaford ’16 back from an ankle injury that made him miss last weekend. Spadaford is the final piece that lets the Jumbos play with four three point shooters surrounding Tom Palleschi ’17. His return is going to be enough to get past Wesleyan… I think.

Prediction: Tufts over Wesleyan 71-67

Amherst (13-2, 3-0) at Bowdoin (8-5, 1-2)

As a Bowdoin fan, I do not like this matchup for the Polar Bears at all. Amherst’s weakness on defense is when you put them into pick and roll situations and are able to penetrate forcing the defense to scramble. McCarthy has the size and quickness to give Hausman problems, and Coach Dave Hixon can try either Green or Racy on Jack Simonds ’19. On the interior, David George ’17 presents problems for Matt Palecki ’16 and Neil Fuller ’17 on the boards. Dawson went off against Bowdoin in the NESCAC semifinals for 21 points last year, and he is playing as well as he ever has for Amherst.

If I’m Coach Tim Gilbride I’m stashing Hausman, a not good defender, on Racy. Hausman just has to stick to Racy the whole time, and since Racy isn’t a threat to drive much, Hausman should be up for the task. Hixon will probably counter by running Racy off screens in order to tire out Hausman. If Bowdoin is going to win, it needs a big game from an unexpected source. Guard Jake Donnelly ’16 or Matt Palecki ’16 are the most likely candidates. Even then, I don’t think that Bowdoin has enough to hang with Amherst in a high scoring game.

Prediction: Amherst over Bowdoin 87-74

Bates (9-7, 2-2) at Conn College (11-5, 2-2)

This is the type of game that shows the depth of the league this year. Both teams have plenty of talent but lots of flaws also. Conn College has been playing so well recently that they might see a little regression this weekend. The Bobcats are on the road for the second straight weekend. They have been on the bus a lot recently after making the trip to Hamilton last weekend.

Marcus and Malcolm Delpeche ’17, the twins who have confused announcers from the day they set foot on campus, have become more consistent this season. However, neither is capable of winning a game by himself, and the edge on the perimeter goes to the Camels. Conn College proves that they are really a quality NESCAC team this weekend with a big win.

Prediction: Conn College over Bates 72-59

Hamilton (8-8, 0-4) at Williams (11-5, 2-2)

Coach Kevin App and Williams lost on the road to Hamilton last year, and they shouldn’t be looking past this game. Freshmen dot both starting lineups, and the battle between Kyle Scadlock ’19 and Andrew Groll ’19 is a diaper dandy. In the end, the difference is not a freshmen but Dan Aronowitz ’17. The multi-faceted forward is doing a great job of leading this Ephs team without forcing things too often. Williams gets above .500 in conference after starting off 0-2.

Prediction: Williams over Hamilton 68-60

Note: I’m picking three road teams to win. We’ll see how that goes.

While World Markets Tank, Stocks Are Up in the NESCAC: Stock Report 1/18/16

The emerging play of Jack Daly '18 is part of the reason why Middlebury has climbed to 3-1 to open the NESCAC season. (Courtesy of Michael Borenstein/Middlebury Campus)
The emerging play of Jack Daly ’18 is part of the reason why Middlebury has climbed to 3-1 to open the NESCAC season. (Courtesy of Michael Borenstein/Middlebury Campus)

Raise your hand if you thought that, after two weeks of NESCAC play, Colby and Wesleyan would be in the bottom three and Middlebury would be looking like a top-four seed … that’s what I thought. While many of the teams are what we thought they were at this stage – Amherst (13-1, 3-0), Trinity (11-4, 3-0) and Hamilton (7-8, 0-4) on the opposite end – there are some really intriguing early season surprises. How did we get here? Let’s find out.

Stock Up:

Conn College Forward Dan Janel ’17

Connecticut College, the perennial NESCAC doormat, came into the second weekend of league play at 10-3 (2-0). Despite an 0-2 weekend, as a team the Camels’ stock is rising. Conn’s star, Zuri Pavlin ’16, was limited over the weekend, playing 15.0 mpg, but Janel stepped up in a big way and almost lead Conn to a monster upset over Amherst. Janel had his second double-double of the season and by far his best statistical game against the Lord Jeffs, tallying 18 points and 14 boards, while David George ’17 was limited to just five points and rebounds. The Camels need Pavlin to make the playoffs, but Janel is emerging as a solid front court mate, and his size is going to be problematic for most opponents.

Colby’s Ryan Jann ’16, Luke Westman ’16 and Sam Willson ’16

Quite the opposite to Conn’s early season performance, Colby has been a disappointment since NESCAC play started with three straight losses. They’re giving up too many points, and their usually explosive offense has sputtered to less than 70 points each contest. However, the performance of this trio on Friday night against Williams was heroic. Without Chris Hudnut ’16 and Pat Stewart ’16, Jann, Westman and Willson combined for 55 of the team’s 66 points. Colby is built to rely heavily on its senior starting five, and without two of those five some reserves were forced to step into roles that they were uncomfortable with. The injury bug bit Stewart a year ago, and it appears to have reared its head in Waterville once again.

Middlebury Guard Jack Daly ’18

I have to be honest, when you watch Daly with the ball in his hands he looks herky-jerky and awkard – about the exact opposite of backcourt mate Jake Brown ’17 – but then he does things that make it clear why he’s become 30-minute per night kind of guy for the Panthers. He’s every bit the team’s point guard as Brown is. Either man is capable of setting the Middlebury offense in motion and running in transition. The biggest bonus Daly brings to the table though is his defense. Tasked with taking on the opponent’s top perimeter player the majority of the time, Daly rises to the challenge. Tufts’ Vinny Pace ’18 had a subpar first half against Daly with 2-5 shooting. Pace went on a roll in the second half and ended up with 22 points, but he is the league’s second-best scorer right now, so give Daly some slack. Bates’ Mike Boornazian ’16 was made a non-factor by Daly on Saturday with just six points. Boornazian had just two field goals in that game, the first of which came with 4:36 left in the game and Middlebury up 16. The Panthers switch a lot on defense, so Daly isn’t perpetually glued to any opponent, but he’s shouldered the majority of the load on the perimeter for Middlebury and done an impressive job.

Stock Down:

Parity

Maybe it’s too early to make this assumption – okay, it’s way too early – but the hallowed parity that was supposed to be a staple of the NESCAC this year might be an aberration. Sure, Amherst barely escaped against Conn on Saturday, but is there any doubt that the Lord Jeffs and Bantams are the league’s top two teams, with Tufts firmly in the top tier, as well? Wesleyan is still a major question mark because of the early season injuries, but I would bet my house (joke’s on you, I don’t have a house!) on one of those three teams winning the NESCAC Championship.

Wesleyan’s Three Point Shooting

The Cardinals’ three-point shooting on the weekend: 5-38. That’s not a typo – 13.2 percent. Wesleyan was a very good shooting time last season, and it’s the same team this year, so what’s going on? Only BJ Davis ’16 is shooting like he did a year ago, but everyone else is struggling. Remember that the Cards were the No. 6 seed in last year’s NESCAC tourney, so to expect them to run through the regular season this year with essentially the same roster would have been an overestimation. Nevertheless, we weren’t expecting this. The best chance the Cards have is to get everyone healthy and get some rhythm back.

NESCAC Scheduling

What’s going on here? Only three games last week, and a mere five in the week coming up. Not that the schedule of a NESCAC student is particularly open on a week night, but is it too much to ask for a couple of games to break up the monotony? At the least, we’ll have an interesting Amherst-Wesleyan rematch tonight. The Lord Jeffs got the important one in the league contest, but Wesleyan needs a statement win to get back on track. Maybe – just maybe – they can catch an Amherst team that showed its weaknesses in barely scraping by Conn on Saturday.