November 2016 – Page 3 – Nothing But NESCAC

And Then There Were Four: Women’s Soccer Semifinals Preview

Williams looks to defend their home turf as the NESCAC semifinals head to Williamstown tomorrow (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)

Call me Liamstradamus, because I swear to God I’m psychic. I picked every single winner correctly from the quarterfinals, got the exact score right in one, and nailed the goal difference in another…. So suffice to say I’m pretty much the golden boy around here right now. I don’t want to make this all about me, even though it should be, so let’s quickly go over the quarterfinals before we dive into my semifinal predictions.

Williams defeats Hamilton 4-1

Hey Hamilton look don’t feel bad. Williams has been absolutely dominant all year and right now they’re the favorite to win the whole thing at the end. Williams looked vulnerable early, surrendering the first goal of the game, but quickly silenced all talk of an upset by rattling off four straight goals to seal their victory.

Amherst defeats Conn College 6-1

Our fears about Conn College were certainly vindicated here; they just struggle to play against top level competition. The game was a relatively close 2-1 after 79 minutes, but in the final stretch Amherst scored four consecutive goals and closed out the Camels with ease. Amherst has been on a roll lately and will look to continue their winning ways in the semifinals.

Middlebury defeats Bowdoin 2-1

I called this game perfectly. Winner, score, whether or not a fan would streak across the field during the game (No was the answer). The 2-1 scoreline makes this game seem closer than it was though, as Middlebury seemed in control from start to finish. The only goal they conceded came off a penalty kick and was answered less than a minute later.

Trinity defeats Tufts 1-0

Sorry Jumbo fans, in the most competitive game of the weekend (which I was also able to watch snippets of while watching my Panthers lose to the Bantams in football), they just didn’t have enough to outlast Trinity. Trinity’s defense looked nigh on impenetrable throughout the game and dominated the usually potent Jumbo attack.

Four games, four winners, and now only four remain. It’s semifinal time! But also final time because this is the NESCAC and we do these things in two days dammit! (Just kidding, it’s the right system and adds to the excitement). These four teams will travel to Williamstown on Friday and face off in what is sure to be an exciting weekend of soccer. Let’s get down to my eerily prescient picks. I’m also going to give a quick preview here of my expected final so read all the way to the end because there will be a quiz.

Williams vs. Trinity

Prediction: Williams wins 2-0

Trinity and Williams played in the opening weekend of the season this year, and their game went to overtime before the Ephs were able to escape with a 2-1 win. Both teams were working out early season kinks, but the Bantams, who have only outright beaten Williams once in their last 22 matchups, are sure to look back at this game and gain a little confidence for their upcoming bout. Unfortunately, I just don’t see Trinity or their superstar forward Taylor Kirchgessner (’19) being able to get going against a stout Williams defense that has only surrendered 5 goals all season! That’s insane. Williams has also won 10 straight and in that time defeated 5 teams that made appearances in the NESCAC playoffs. Williams should win and lock up home field advantage for the NESCAC finals.

Amherst vs. Middlebury

Middlebury wins 1-0

Wow. This game is gonna be tight. Amherst might be on a roll recently, winners of 10 straight including their NESCAC quarterfinals domination of Conn, but the only time these two teams faced off this year, Middlebury won 1-0. The game was hard fought and only decided thanks to the heroics of Emma Shumway (’18) who scored late in the second half. This game is sure to be just as close. Both teams rank in the top 3 in the league in goals per game with Amherst at 2 (2.25 gpg) and Middlebury at 3 (2.06 gpg). Both teams also rank in the top half of the league in defense with Amherst 4th and Middlebury 5th. I see this game coming down to the goalies. Amherst has found a rock in Chelsea Cutler (’19) who has started 15 games this year and only allowed 10 goals while making 57 saves. Middlebury has adopted a goalie by committee approach with Ursula Alwang (’20) and Kate Reinmuth (’17). Alwang started the quarterfinals against Bowdoin but both have made starts and appearances over the course of the last three games. This one is going to be tight, and honestly could go either way. I’m banking on Middlebury to repeat their success from earlier this year and escape with a 1-0 win.

NESCAC Finals— Williams vs. Middlebury

Prediction: Williams win 2-1

If this is the way the cookie crumbles in the semifinals, then we’re in for a rematch of the final game of the regular season for these two teams. Both have looked dominant for long stretches of the season, but Williams has consistently looked a little better. They’ve handled their business against the bottom of the conference and shown other good teams like Middlebury who’s really in charge. In a game that could be decided by one or two bounces, I see Williams winning and claiming their second straight NESCAC championship.

Everyone’s Watching the Scoreboard in Hartford: Week 7 Game of the Week

It's going to take a full-team effort for Amherst to take down the Bantams tomorrow (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics) — It’s going to take a full-team effort for Amherst to take down the Bantams tomorrow (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

Amherst (3-3) at Trinity (6-0), 12:30 PM, Hartford, CT

This matchup doesn’t have quite as much on the line as last weekend, but the eyes of every team still in the running for the crown will be glancing towards this game’s scoreboard. So while this game carries tremendous implications for Trinity, Tufts, Wesleyan, and Middlebury, it’s like this is the NLCS series and the World Series happened last week. I’m not trying to discount Amherst, but there isn’t quite as much excitement here. Now, optimistically, could Amherst be like the Cubs and make an improbable comeback into the NESCAC race? Or could they play the role of spoiler and really spice up the race to the top as the season winds down? Well, we thought that last weekend could’ve been the quasi-championship game, but who knows what could happen if Amherst tops the favored Bantams. Amherst won’t win the NESCAC and comeback from a 3-1-esque deficit like Chicago, but they do certainly have a strong enough team and rush defense to give Trinity a good run for their money and mess with their plans of bringing the title back to Hartford. Let’s dive into it.

November 7th, 2015, Amherst Defeats Trinity 16-7 in Amherst, MA

Last year, Trinity scored first on a Max Chipouras ’19 touchdown but didn’t find the end zone again. Amherst successfully shut down Chipouras for most of the game and held him to just 3.4 yards per carry, not even close to his 2016 average of 6.1 yds/carry. In this defensively dominated game, Sonny Puzzo ’18 got picked off twice, however it is clear that he made great strides to improve his accuracy this year. His TD: INT ratio of 13:2 is worlds better than last year’s 5:8 tally, and he has been nearly perfect through 3/4 of this season. Wide receiver David Boehm ’17 is the only big contributor on offense from Amherst that remains since Reece Foy hasn’t played all year, and unfortunately for the Purple and White, both Alex Berluti ‘17 and Nick Morales ’19 are significant downgrades from the standout Foy. These teams are both different animals from last year, and this season there’s no question that Trinity is more of a beast. However, if Amherst can pull off the upset and stop Chipouras, then Middlebury, Tufts and Wesleyan may yet have hope.

Trinity X-Factor: RB Max Chipouras ‘19

#22 Max Chipouras '19 will be an integral part of Trinity's gameplay this weekend, per usual (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics). — #22 Max Chipouras ’19 will be an integral part of Trinity’s gameplay this weekend, per usual (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics).

Chipouras usually would be left off one of my X-Factor lists just because he would be an obvious force and leader during the game. Now, this week is no different – he will be a force- but since each team has a shutdown defense, these teams likely won’t be scoring upwards of 40 points as Trinity usually does. Chipouras rushes for 124.3 yds/game at 6.1 yds/carry and over a TD per game (seven on the year). Without him, Trinity would probably still be 6-0 since the only game that they played that was remotely close was against Tufts, who scored a lot of garbage time points. With that being said, however, since Trinity’s ground game is their main offensive threat, if Amherst can shut down Chipouras and hold him to their average 63 rushing yards allowed per game, then things will get very interesting in Hartford. If Chipouras slows down this weekend, Puzzo will need to find more than his usual 194.7 yds/game. If Chipouras does find some running room, however, this game might not stay close for long.

Amherst X-Factor: QB Alex Berluti ‘19

Alex Berluti '17 hopes to lead Amherst to an upset victory on Saturday (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics) — Alex Berluti ’17 hopes to lead Amherst to an upset victory on Saturday (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

You might be expecting a couple linebackers here, since I just mentioned how important stopping the dominant Chipouras will be for Amherst, however, it’s pretty plain and simple: Trinity is going to beat Amherst if Chipouras runs all over them. The Amherst rush defense has been solid all year, so it will just come down to who is better: Trinity’s rushing attack or Amherst’s rush defense. Alex Berluti is another big question mark heading into the game for the visitors. A second stringer last year, Berluti finds himself in the lime light for a storied football program, heading to Connecticut to face the big bad wolf in the ‘Coop. Yikes. It’s safe to say Berluti isn’t living the Alex Moran lifestyle anymore, and hasn’t had a lot of luck come his way this year. He fared well against Hamilton, respectably against Bowdoin until he got injured, and returned in what was a mediocre performance last weekend in the loss to Tufts. He did complete 20 of 43 passes, but Berluti didn’t find the end zone at all, he threw two picks and he got sacked four times. Amherst is going to rely on Berluti tomorrow, and for him to take them from the henhouse to the promised land, a lot is going to have to improve from last weekend.

Everything Else

Amherst got absolutely dominated against Wesleyan two weeks ago, however, a change in QB left them a little closer to victory against Tufts. Wesleyan’s defense is statistically the best in the league, and they picked off Nick Morales ’19 five times, but Berluti didn’t fare much better last weekend. All in all, Amherst’s QBs have 0 TDs and 7 INTs in the past two weeks. Ouch. Trinity’s monster defense, including Spencer Donahue ’17 and Archi Jerome ’17, is not going to let the Purple and White walk all over them. The ‘Coop should be a madhouse this weekend as it’s senior day for the graduating Bantams and their undefeated record is on the line. The Amherst signal caller has a lot to be weary of and a great challenge ahead of him.

Regardless of opposing quarterback play, Trinity really seems to be firing on all cylinders right now. Their win against Middlebury last weekend was a nod to how much more dominant they are than any other team. Midd looked like they were primed to come into Hartford and knock the Bantams down, but what a cold world it is for Panther fans. Trinity didn’t bat an eye last weekend, and it wasn’t a fluke. Trinity was better from start to finish, and they never let up – maybe they learned to keep the pedal to the metal after Tufts’ late comeback attempt. Looking ahead, the real NESCAC championship could be next weekend between the Connecticut squads, but the Bantams have to take care of business first. Amherst was the favorite going into the year, but they have fallen mightily these past few weeks and are teetering into the second tier of teams in the league if they get blown out this weekend. The Purple and White have a tough road ahead of them and I have no reason to believe that this is the week for Amherst to turn it around. This game reminds me less of a 2016 Cubs vs. Indians world series and more of a Yankees vs. Padres world series circa 1998 (Yeah, I was one year old when that happened and am still salty about it). Is this game in Hartford or Titletown?

The Times, They Are A’Changing: Week Six Power Rankings

Hamilton is looking for their third straight home win this weekend as they try to upend Middlebury (Courtesy of Hamilton Athletics)

Week Six solidified several hypotheses about the 2016 NESCAC football season. It definitively proved that Trinity is the class of the league. We learned that Tufts doesn’t need to choose between two somewhat ineffective quarterbacks to be a contender, and that even Amherst can’t overcome the loss of their top two quarterbacks (though Alex Berluti ’17 was back in action this weekend). It also proved without a doubt that my dad and I shouldn’t watch tense Middlebury sporting events in confined spaces (sorry about the TV remote Dad, I’ll pay for a new one.) Here on the opening day of NESCAC Winter Sports practices, we bring you the third to last football Power Rankings

1: Trinity (6-0)

Many experts (mostly me) were saying that Middlebury would come out on top in the NESCAC Super Bowl that took place in Hartford on Saturday, effectively clinching the league championship. However, the Bantams made those experts (again, mostly me) look pretty foolish. Trinity vaporized Middlebury on Saturday to the tune of 49-13. It was 28-0 at the end of the first half, causing my father, a Middlebury fan of over 50 years, to go out and rake leaves rather than watch the third quarter on webcast. Running back Max Chipouras was simply unstoppable (186 yard and two touchdowns) and quarterback (and Tony Soprano’s “waste management” associate) Sonny Puzzo was his usual solid self, passing for two touchdowns and running for another. It was their defense that starred, however. They pressured Jared Lebowitz and nearly every throw, forcing him into three interceptions. Trinity closes the season still needing to play Amherst and Wesleyan to seal up the league title, but at this rate I think they could take on Alabama and come out on top.

2: Tufts (5-1)

Next up in the “lessen Peter’s credibility as an analyst” division is Tufts. For much of the season I’ve been saying that Tufts’ inconsistency at quarterback would prevent them from entering the elusive “Top Tier” that we write so vaguely about here at NBN. However, the Jumbos’ performance against Amherst last weekend made me look like the ESPN writers who thought that Tom Brady would be rusty after Deflategate: loudly and abrasively wrong. Chance Brady (no relation) had another POY level performance with 157 yards on 24 carries and two touchdowns. Quarterback Ryan Mcdonald offered a surprisingly solid performance, both throwing and running for over 100 yards and a touchdown with no turnovers. And the defense collectively starred, forcing two interceptions and four sacks against the vaunted Amherst offense. It is possible that beating Amherst is not quite as powerful a showing in reality as it sounds on paper, but Tufts put the league on notice this weekend.

3: Middlebury (5-1)

The Panthers were outmatched from the opening kickoff against Trinity, giving up two long touchdowns in the first quarter on a 34 yard run from Max Chipouras and a 46 yard pass from Sonny Puzzo to Bryan Viera. Trinity intercepted Middlebury quarterback Jared Lebowitz 3 times and backup Jack Meservy twice, and recorded five sacks in a dominating all around performance. The lone bright spot for the Panthers was another strong outing for sophomore running back Diego Meritus, who put up 70 yards on 14 carries and scored a touchdown. Look for Meritus to possibly get even more work as the Panthers attempt to remain in the running for a share of the league title in a road trip against Hamilton, and a crucial matchup at home against Tufts in the final week of the season.

4: Wesleyan (5-1)

Before Wesleyan fans kill me for dropping them after they put up 39 points in a win, let me remind them that I have always loved their uniforms. Red and black is a fire combination, and adding the “Cardinals” mascot (one of the better animal mascots in sports) makes the whole ensemble even better. That said, Wesleyan dominated Bowdoin at home in a performance that can only be described as “expected.” You don’t get glory for beating up on one of the two worst teams in the league at home. The Cardinals got an impressive performance from quarterback Mark Piccirillo, and should use this game and their matchup with Williams next weekend as a tuneup for their final week showdown with Trinity, which may actually be the championship of the league (I know we said that about Middlebury-Trinity, but we got excited.)

5: Amherst (3-3)

If you approached me in a the saloon from Westworld during the offseason, as I nursed a whiskey with my cowboy hat tilted low over my eyes, and told me that after Week Six I’d be writing a Power Rankings column with Amherst fifth, I would have told you to stop telling me about NESCAC football while we’re in a robotic world of adventure and mystery. And also that you were wrong. But here we are in regular old 2016 America, with Amherst having lost three of their last four games and falling completely out of contention for the league championship. The culprit the last two weeks has been turnovers, as Amherst has coughed up the ball 7 times in the last two weeks. This gives their defense, which is still among the best in the league, very little rest or field position to work with, accounting for Chance Brady running all over them like Usain Bolt last weekend. Amherst still has an opportunity to be a major spoiler next weekend, as they take on Trinity. If they can muster some of the Amherst swagger that was present during their 21 game winning streak, they can throw a major wrench into the Bantam’s march to the title.

6: Bates (2-4)

Bates is prepared for their second CBB matchup this weekend against Bowdoin (Courtesy of Bates Athletics)

Bates put up one of their best halves in several years this past weekend against Colby, leading 21-3 at the end of two quarters. Sandy Plashkes had over 170 yards of total offense and a touchdown, and Bates overcame a rally attempt by Colby in the second half to win 21-19. With matchups against Hamilton and Bowdoin to end the year, Bates has a very real chance to finish .500. And with Amherst still needing to play Trinity, Bates could very well end up with the same record as Amherst. By the way, as I wrote that last sentence, a wormhole opened and irreparably damaged the space-time continuum. Time now runs backwards, all precipitation is now in the form of fire. Earth has become a living nightmare. So my bad I guess. Seriously though, Bates is hot. Let’s see if they can carry that fire into their final CBB matchup this weekend.

7: Colby (2-4)

The Mules finished on the other end of the “Second Tier Super Bowl” in Lewiston last weekend. Unable to overcome a slow start, Colby’s comeback attempt fell just short, ending in a 21-19 loss. Colby’s offense pretty much entirely consisted of throws from quarterback Christian Sparacio to wide receiver Sebastian Ferrell (who has flown under the radar this season, but is 5th in yards and third in yards per catch as a sophomore). Farrell and Sparacio hooked up 11 times for 183 yards and two touchdowns, giving the Mules a fighting chance to come back from an early 21-3 deficit. If Ferrell and Sparacio can keep up this repartee, the Mules have an opportunity to play a major spoiling role for Tufts next weekend, and also finish at .500, the golden mark for several historically lesser programs.

8: Hamilton (2-4)

Hamilton took care of business this weekend against Williams, beating the Ephs 16-6 in what was a wholly unremarkable game. Hamilton freshman quarterback Kenny Grey continued to show solid promise, and Hamilton was able to constantly pin Williams deep in their own territory. The Continentals may have a chance to pick up another win against Bates in the final week of the season, and face off with a wounded Panthers pride this coming Saturday. Middlebury has a tendency to get off to slow starts, particularly on the road, so if Hamilton plays perfectly, they could pull off the biggest upset of the season.

9: Williams (0-6)

The Ephs missed their last and best chance to get a win in 2016 when they fell to Hamilton. From the beginning of the season this was going to be a rebuilding year for Williams, as they transition into the Mark Raymond era. And there have been some bright spots, particularly the emergence of Tyler Patterson ‘19, an end who missed the first few games but is a dynamic offensive talent. Williams may not be able to win one in 2016, but honestly neither has the rest of the world really. The Ephs have no reason to hang their heads. However, you can never count Williams out for their Week 8 matchup with Amherst, The Biggest Little Game in America.

10: Bowdoin (0-6)

The same cannot quite be said for Bowdoin. The 2016 season was also doomed from the start for the Polar Bears, but in large part due to a plagiarism scandal that resulted in the loss of several starters. For anyone wondering, this is a worse excuse than a new coach. Aside from a 26-25 loss to Hamilton, Bowdoin has not lost by under 20 points this season, and gives up an almost unfathomable 466 yards per game. Bowdoin does have games left against Bates and Colby, but they’d have to figure some things out real fast to have a shot against even those middle of the pack teams.

An Update on the Offensive Player of the Year Race

Chance Brady won the Offensive POY Award last year, and he took home the Golden Helmet Award after his Week 5 performance. Is another piece of hardware going to find a home on Brady's mantle? (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics) — Chance Brady won the Offensive POY Award last year, and he took home the Golden Helmet Award after his Week 5 performance. Is another piece of hardware going to find a home on Brady’s mantle at the end of the season? (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)

Back in September, Rory previewed the Player of the Year race. He hit the nail on the head with Brady, Chipouras and Puzzo as contenders, but two new candidates have emerged throughout the first six weeks of the season. So now, with two weeks left of football it is time to update our readers on the player of the year race…

Tufts RB Chance Brady ’17:

It is to no surprise that Brady is a finalist for player of the year after the numbers he has put up thus far in his senior campaign. Leading a run-heavy offense, Brady has shown opponents that there is really no way to stop him. He is second in the NESCAC in Rushing Yards (740) and first in Touchdowns (11). If it weren’t for “Mad Max” Chipouras down in Hartford, I’d be pretty confident in saying that Chance has more than locked up his second consecutive player of the year award. Brady faces a favorable Week 7 matchup against a pretty porous Colby rush defense.

Trinity RB Max Chipouras ’19:

Max Chipouras '19 (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics). — Max Chipouras ’19 (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics).

Only a sophomore, Chipouras is the other favorite for player of the year. Chipouras has a slight lead in Rushing Yards (746), but has done so in 18 fewer carries than Brady. He has also found the end zone 8 times this season. It would be almost too hard to determine who has the lead in the player of the year race between Chipouras and Brady, and I expect huge numbers from both of them in week 7 and 8. Chipouras faces the two best run defenses in the league to end the season, Week 7 against Amherst and Week 8 at Wesleyan, so it’s a tall task to ask him to maintain his efficiency. That being said, if he has a better finish to the season than Brady, he deserves the award.

Middlebury QB Jared Leibowitz ’18:

Jared Lebowitz '18 (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics) — Jared Lebowitz ’18 (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)

Going into week 6 it was hard not to have Lebowitz as a favorite for player of the year. He was averaging 327 YPG with 20 Touchdowns to only 5 interceptions. Then he hit a setback in Week 6 when Trinity’s defense dominated Middlebury the entire day. Given that there are two weeks left Lebowitz, can still make up for this down game, but he will need to have his week 1-5 stuff in order to do so. Regardless of one bad week, 21 touchdowns in 6 games is nothing to sneeze at.

Trinity QB Sonny Puzo ’18:

Sonny Puzzo '18 (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics). — Sonny Puzzo ’18 (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics).

Through 6 weeks of football, Puzzo has been nearly perfect for the Bantams. Puzzo has the edge over Lebowitz in completion percentage (60%) and his TD:INT ratio is also better (13:2). The junior quarterback is a huge reason why Trinity remains undefeated: he provides a legitimate pass threat in a run dominant offense, and he also has the athleticism to move out of the pocket to make a play. Puzzo has run for over 200 yards, 3 touchdowns, and he even broke off at 69 yard run earlier in the year. Don’t be surprised if Sonny Puzzo sneaks up to grab the player of the year award following week 8.

Wesleyan WR Devon Carrillo ’17:

Devon Carrillo '17 (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics) — Devon Carrillo ’17 (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics)

Some may question this choice, but it’s definitely justified. Simply put, Carrillo is one of the most versatile players in the NESCAC. Wesleyan fans have been calling him the Jabrill Peppers of the NESCAC (minus the defense part). Carrillo has made an impact as a passer, receiver, rusher and returner, accounting for 11 touchdowns (9 rushing, 2 passing) on the season. He leads Wesleyan in points scored with 54, good for third in the league. Carrillo’s Week 8 performance in a potential NESCAC title game against Trinity will likely determine if he has what it takes to be the player of the year.

Stay tuned for the defensive POY race update next week.