Game Information: Amherst (21-7) at St. John Fisher (24-4)
Saturday, March 7, 7:00 PM
Manning and Napier Varsity Gym, St. John Fisher College, Rochester, NY
We nailed the prediction for Amherst winning their first round matchup with Sage comfortably, but I can’t pretend like we foresaw 28 points in 21 minutes from Reid Berman ’17 and 19 really disastrous minutes from Jayde Dawson ’18. We got a little frustrated with the self-proclaimed “most controversial Division III sports broadcast” last night (you can look for the conversation yourself if you so desire), but they weren’t wrong on one point.
Reid beat Sage tonight. It was all athletic and verbal though, no domestic assaults or anything bad like that. Reid is a sweet kid from Chi
— Lord JeffCast (@LordJeffCast) March 7, 2015
It was starting to look like Dawson was going to overtake Berman for the NCAA stretch, but now we don’t know what to think, and I don’t think that Coach David Hixon knows any better than we do. As long as the two young point men keep trading good games, Amherst will be fine. It’s when they both struggle on the same night that it will become an issue.
No. 18 WPI had no chance last night against a No. 20 St. John Fisher team that shot 13-17 from deep, six of those coming from Optimystik Kindard ’15, who didn’t miss a trey ball, and he knew how to pay his respects.
The basketball gods was looking out tonight
— optimystik Kinard (@okinard30) March 7, 2015
The Engineers packed the paint against Keegan Ryan ’17, the Cardinals’ leading scorer, which worked because Ryan had as many turnovers as points (three), but his teammates picked up the slack.
Three Storylines to Watch
1. The Amherst point guard conundrum
Berman will likely start, as he has for the last 12 Jeff games, but expect the minutes to be shared equally, at least in the first half, between Berman and Dawson. After halftime, Coach Hixon is likely to go with the hot hand. Berman is a great distributor and has been the more consistent of the pair, but Dawson brings more to the court from a scoring perspective and on defense, although you wouldn’t know it from watching last night’s game.
2. Three point shooting from both teams
Amherst is among the top 20 teams in the nation in three point attempts, and hits a respectable 37.4 percent of its tries. St. John Fisher, meanwhile, takes a lot less threes, but hits at a slightly higher clip (38.9 percent). As we mentioned, the Cards were unstoppable from deep last night, but Coach Hixon believes that WPI didn’t do itself any favors on defense. He has instructed his players to lay off the weak side help and gamble a bit more on long passes, which will make it easier for his wing players to close out on potential shooters. The question is whether that will open up more looks for Ryan, the 6’7″ 235 lbs. center. In addition to Kinard, who is shooting 40.0 percent on the year from deep, Adam Ambielli ’15 and Tyler Hart ’16 both shoot over 40 percent from beyond the arch and might be more dangerous than the lengthy Kinard.
3. Rebounding battle
Somewhat tied in to the above, Amherst should dominate in the rebounding category. The Jeffs have a rebounding margin of +5.2 on the season, and the Cards +5.4, but Amherst was one of the better rebounding teams in the NESCAC while St. John Fisher was at the bottom of the Empire 8. The Cards lack front court depth beyond Ryan. Coach Rob Kornaker basically runs a six-man rotation, but gives about 10 minutes per game to reserve big man Zach Ottaway ’17. There is a significant drop off from Ryan to Ottaway, and aside from those two the only player with significant minutes over 6’1″ is Kinard, who is not an inside player and at 6’6″ 195 lbs. can be pushed around. Not only does Amherst have two strong big men in George and Conklin, but Johnny McCarthy ’18 and Connor Green ’16 are great rebounding guards and will have height advantages over their defenders. For St. John Fisher to hang in this game they will have to somehow eliminate second chance looks off of missed three pointers from the Jeffs.
Amherst X-Factor: Guard Connor Green ’16
Coach Hixon put it best when he said that Green is “lost right now” on offense. Through the first game of the NESCAC Tournament Green was giving Lucas Hausman ’16 a run for his money for the title of hottest shooter in the ‘CAC. Since then, though, Green has 24 points in three games on 18.4 percent (7-38) shooting and 11.1 percent (2-18) from deep. Green was even benched for the majority of the second half of the NESCAC title game against Wesleyan. This is a game where Green could make an impact even if he isn’t scoring, but Amherst needs to get him going if they hope to return to the Final Four.
St. John Fisher X-Factor: Point Guard Chaz Lott ’16
This is a close call, because the Cards spread the ball around extremely well. On the season, six players are averaging between 8.5 and 15.4 points per game. But Lott runs the offense for Coach Kornaker, and is an all-around player, averaging 10.6 PPG, 6.1 APG with a 2.2 A/TO and 5.0 RPG. What’s more, Lott will be responsible for locking down Amherst’s point guard, whoever that happens to be at the time. If Lott can shut down Berman/Dawson, that puts the pressure on Green to score buckets, and we should find out pretty quickly if the junior member of the 1,000 point club has his stroke back.
Prediction
Wow, this is tough. What if both Amherst point guards have off nights? What if Connor Green can’t put it together? What if Eric Conklin reverts back to his pre-NESCAC Tournament self. What if Keegan Ryan is too much for David George? That’s a lot of “What ifs,” and despite all of that I am still confident in Amherst moving on to the Sweet 16. I feel strongly that they would whoop Sage last night, and I’m sticking by the Jeffs. It’s no secret that Amherst is packed with talent, but it’s been a matter of inexperience this season. Amherst has no seniors among its rotation, and Green is the only junior that gets significant minutes (Ray Barry ’16 has gotten minutes at times and Ben Pollack ’16 would be a factor if not for injury). Still, the lights were not too bright for Amherst last night, and I don’t think they will be fazed this evening, either. I expect the rebounding margin to be heavily tilted in Amherst’s favor, which alone should keep the score tight.
Amherst 75 – St. John Fisher 67