Two weekends of conference play remain, and a full weekend of games promises to sort the conference out further. In the West, it’s the calm before the storm of Wesleyan vs. Amherst next weekend. The East promises further clearing of the cluttered standings. Colby looks to prove it’s for real against Tufts while Bates hopes to start a late season run against Trinity. It promises to be another great weekend.
Marquee Matchup: Tufts (20-2, 3-1) vs Colby (13-6, 4-2)
Not many people expected this to be a matchup of the two top teams in the East at the start of the season, but Colby showed its hot start was for real when they went to Brunswick and took two out three. Meanwhile, Tufts showed its first signs of weakness against a Trinity team that came out inspired to beat them. Colby isn’t going to surprise Tufts like they might have if they played earlier in the season. The winner of this weekend is almost assured of hosting the NESCAC championships so both teams are sure to give everything they have.
Expect every game in this series to be a low scoring affair given the quality of pitching both teams possess. Nobody has a better trump card than Tufts does in Kyle Slinger ’15, and Tim Superko ’17 is no slouch either. The Friday matchup of Goldberg vs. Slinger is the best pitching matchup of the season, bar none. The big righty, Goldberg, has come into his own this season while Slinger has taken his game to another level. The rest of a surging Colby staff will look to continue their success. Soren Hanson ’16 got the loss against Bowdoin despite striking out ten, and Greg Ladd ’15 has been spectacular locating pitches and forcing weak contact.
Both teams have questions of depth behind their top starters. What cost the Jumbos against Trinity was their bullpen allowing seven runs in the first game of the doubleheader. While Tufts has a ton of talent, there are real questions on how deep their pitching staff is. Last year, Andrew David ’16 had a stellar season and took home one NESCAC Pitcher of the Week award, but he has pitched sparingly in the last couple of weeks. Matt Moser ’16 and Tom Ryan ’15 are good pitchers, but Moser has only pitched seven innings and Ryan gave up the losing run against Trinity. Superko never goes late in games, and if Slinger struggles for the first time this year then the bullpen will be stretched. Tufts has seen top relievers Lucas Geoghegan ’14 and Dakota Rabbitt ’14 struggle in recent weeks as well. They don’t usually get the headlines, but bullpens are vital in close games. As Lee Corso famously says about it ‘coming down to special teams!,’ the same is true for the bullpen.
On the offensive side Colby needs its stars Jason Buco ’15 and Kevin Galvin ’14 to come up with big hits. Ryder Arsenault ’17 has to continue getting on-base in front of them at a torrid pace as well. After that there is a pretty big drop off in production. This has forced Hanson to become a two way player with great results in limited at-bats so far. His .448 AVG and .500 OBP are tops for the Mules. Tufts has a more balanced attack with six players boasting an OBP north of .400 and at least 50 plate appearances. Another good measure of their depth is that six different players have hit homers, though nobody has more than one. Despite all that fire power Colby has a decent chance at slowing down the Tufts offense. In four conference games the Jumbos have yet to bust out averaging 4.25 runs per game.
We don’t usually make predictions because the NESCAC can be so unpredictable, but expect Tufts to win two of three. Slinger is too dominant to be beat, but after that it is a tossup in the other two games. Trinity proved Tufts is just another NESCAC team despite their gaudy record, but the Jumbos will still finish at the top of the East.
Three to Watch
1. Andrew Vandini ’16 Third Baseman (Amherst) – We gave Amherst a lot of love in our Mid-season Awards earlier this week, but Vandini didn’t get a lot of ink, besides an Honorable Mention for Most Improved. In general, the sophomore has flown under the radar overshadowed by his ultra-talented classmate Mike Odenwaelder ’16 and the stellar Amherst pitching, but Vandini is the engine at the top of the Amherst offense. He isn’t flashy with only one extra-base hit and three stolen bases, but his .471 OBP makes it pretty clear why he bats lead-off. He has more walks (11) than strikeouts (10) and is tied for fourth in the league for hits. His defense has also been good with only three errors at a difficult position. Vandini and Taiki Kasuga ’14 play great defense on the left side of the infield are a nasty duo at the top of the lineup that leaves opposing pitchers worn out when they get to the middle of the Amherst lineup.
2. Nate Pajka ’15 Outfielder (Bates) – The Bates offense has been a mess besides the stellar pair of Griffin Tewksbury ’14 and Kevin Davis ’14. While ideally an on-base machine would emerge in front of them, it doesn’t look like that guy is currently on the Bates roster. Pajka is instead a guy with a lot of power (three homers) but a below average batting average (.274). He had a good weekend against Bowdoin with two multi-hit games, and he will look to continue that hitting as Bates returns to conference play. Bates will have a difficult time with a still dangerous Trinity team, but they need a big weekend since they still have five games remaining against Tufts and Colby. If Pajka becomes a little more consistent, Bates will have a threesome of mashers in the lineup to give teams trouble.
3. Sam Goodwin-Boyd ’15 First Baseman (Wesleyan) – Your NESCAC RBI leader with 24 is none other than the junior from Florence, Massachusetts. His OBP of .396 and SLG% of .487 don’t jump out at you, but Goodwin-Boyd has reason for so many RBIs besides bountiful opportunities to accrue them. Eleven of his hits have gone for extra bases meaning runners on-base are able to advance multiple bases. The Cardinals offense was its usual self one weekend after they struggled to score against Middlebury. They can’t falter and give up a game in the standings to Amherst before they meet in their titanic matchup next weekend.
Here’s the schedule for this weekend:
Friday:
Amherst at Middlebury (DH) 2 PM
Colby at Tufts 3 PM
Bates at Trinity 3 PM
Wesleyan at Hamilton 4 PM
Saturday:
Amherst at Middlebury 12 PM
Wesleyan at Hamilton (DH) 12 PM
Colby at Tufts (DH) 12 PM
Bates at Trinity (DH) 12 PM