A rematch of a NESCAC quarterfinal from last season, this game promises to be a game dominated by both offenses. These are the two best offenses in the NESCAC in terms of points per game. They can both hurt you in a variety of ways, but both teams have also become much more reliant on their starting group as the season has gone along. That quarterfinal from a year ago doesn’t mean anything either. Amherst laid a beatdown on the Jumbos in that one, leading by 16 points at halftime and winning 92-66. Connor Green ’16 was hot, shooting 10-16 from the floor to score 29 points. That win was revenge for Tufts destroying Amherst earlier in the year during conference play.
Both teams only boasted one senior last season (Ben Ferris ’15 on Tufts and Alex Levine ’15 for Amherst), but still a lot has changed. For one, Jayde Dawson ’18 and Jeff Racy ’17 are starting now for Amherst while Reid Berman ’17 and Jacob Nabatoff ’17 have become bit players. On Tufts, Hunter Sabety ’17 transferred and all three of Tarik Smith ’17, Vincent Pace ’18, and Stephen Haladyna ’16 have started every game for Tufts after coming off the bench for the Jumbos last year.
Last time they played: Tufts 84 – Amherst 73, Feb. 5 at Tufts
The Jumbos led this one basically from wire to wire, and they threatened to blow out Amherst at points. An 18-3 run fueled by three 3s from three different players put Tufts up 34-18 in the first half. On his senior day, seldom used Zach Roswold ’16 had two big three pointers in the half. The second half saw Amherst continuously try and fail to cut into the lead, but they could never get the lead below seven points. Green had 28 points in the game and 17 in the half, but it wasn’t enough. Racy had his worst game of the year going 0-6 from three, turning the ball over twice, and fouling out. Tufts had their typical balanced scoring from the starting five, and Tom Palleschi ’17 led the way with 20 points, nine rebounds, and four big blocks. The loss cost Amherst the number one overall seed and is why we are in Hartford and not Amherst this weekend.
Amherst X-Factor: Point Guard Jayde Dawson ’18
I could easily put Green or Racy in this spot, but Dawson gets the nod because of how he has struggled recently. In the past four games vs. NESCAC opponents he has averaged 6.75 ppg and 2.25 apg after averaging 20.3 ppg and 4.7 apg in the three games before that. It hasn’t affected the team from Central Massachusetts very much given that they are 6-1 in that stretch. Still, an Amherst team where Dawson is locked in, making shots, and not committing stupid turnovers is a tough one. He pounds the ball way too much for no reason, and he certainly is not a true point guard, but Dawson has undoubtedly been much better this season than last. Amherst doesn’t need him to play well in order to win, but if he does then it’s hard to imagine them losing.
Tufts X-Factor: Center Tom Palleschi ’17
Little bit of a cop out putting the Jumbos best player as their X-Factor, but I believe that away from the friendly confines of Cousens Gym Palleschi needs to be a monster on both ends of the floor for Tufts to win. The big center has been putting up big points numbers in recent weeks, averaging 20.6 ppg over his last seven games as Tufts has shown a renewed commitment to working the ball through him. He has also only gotten better at blocking shots, averaging an absurd 4.3 bpg over that same span. Palleschi allows the Tufts perimeter defenders to take away the three point lines and not worry about the opponent getting easy points inside. Against as good of a three point shooting team as Amherst, the luxury of Palleschi protecting the rim means the Jumbos can sell out on the perimeter, just so long as they make sure to weak side rebound if Palleschi goes for any blocks.
Three Questions
1. Which sophomore plays better: Vincent Pace ’18 or Johnny McCarthy ’18?
These are the two best sophomores in the league, and they both happen to be long-armed shooting guards. I’m hoping that they guard each other for most of the game tomorrow to see who’s game gets the upper hand. Their strengths lie on opposite ends of the floor: Pace is better offensively and McCarthy plays best defensively. That doesn’t mean that they are slouches on the other end, of course. Pace went through a brief three-game slump in late January, but he has been way better in February even as his shot has struggled from deep. Driving against McCarthy is tough, but if Pace gets someone else switched onto him on a pick and roll then he will go to work. McCarthy, meanwhile, hits that step back jumper once or twice a game and makes you think he is the most talented player in the league. Still, he remains just a cog in the offensive attack for Amherst.
2. Does Amherst hit threes?
Amherst shoots so many threes that it can drive you crazy when they don’t go down. In the regular season they shot 79 more threes than any other team, or 12.8 percent more threes than anyone else. When those shots don’t go in against a good opponent, Amherst tends to lose. They shot 7-25 (28 percent) from three against Tufts in the first meeting this year. There is no question that Amherst is capable of burying opponents in a flurry of long-distance shots, but an Amherst team that shoots exclusively from the three point line is a one-dimensional and beatable one.
3. Which bench shows up?
Both of these teams are very reliant on their starting five, which is funny because last year they would both regularly go 10 deep in their rotation. However, the upside for the Amherst bench is much higher. Michael Riopel ’18 can affect the game in a number of ways, and Eric Conklin ’17 is nearly a guarantee to score a few baskets every game. On the Tufts side, Ben Engvall ’18 or Stefon Duvivier ’18 is capable of swinging the game by canning a couple of threes from deep. At the end of the day, I trust the ability of the Amherst bench to change the game more than I do Tufts. I do expect the starters on both sides to get heavy minutes, but the ability of Amherst to replace one of their starters who isn’t playing well with someone replicable could be the difference.
Everything Else
I mentioned at the top that offense is the strength of both teams. That means either team is fully capable of ripping off a game-changing run at any time. String a few three pointers together and suddenly a double digit lead almost disappears. The winner of this game is unlikely to score less than 80 points, but the ability of Amherst to shut down teams from deep could be a difference maker. On the season, Amherst is the best in the COUNTRY in defensive 3 point field goal percentage, but Tufts was able to shoot 8-20 (40 percent) from deep in their first meeting. The length of the Amherst perimeter defenders and the change in scenery makes it unlikely that the Jumbos find a way to replicate that type of shooting.
Tufts won the first matchup this year, but that game was in Medford on a Saturday which favors the home team even more than a Friday night game. I don’t think either school is going to bring a big crowd to the game Saturday. If it’s anyone, it would be Amherst, but I was at their semifinal game last year at Trinity and there were literally zero students at that one. The Jumbos have lost only two games at home this season, and they tend to shoot worse from distance away from Medford, MA.
Amherst is the better team overall, and on a neutral floor I think they get the best of the Jumbos. These are two very talented teams, and it is going to be a treat to watch them go up against each other. At the end of the day, I think that Amherst gets and converts more looks from three than the Jumbos do in a close battle. One thing that could keep things interesting at the end: Amherst is shooting under 70 percent from the free throw line. If the Jumbos are down late but put the right players on the foul line, anything could happen.
Prediction: Amherst 87 over Tufts 78